High fitness costs of climate change‐induced camouflage mismatch

Properties of vertebrate predator-prey networks in the high Arctic

Predation is an important ecological process that can significantly impact the maintenance of ecosystem services. In arctic environments, the relative ecological importance of predation is thought to be increasing due to climate change, partly because of increased productivity with rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding predator-prey interactions in arctic ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of these northern regions. Network theory provides a framework for quantifying the structures of ecological interactions. In this study, we use dietary observations on mammalian and avian predators in a high arctic region, including isolated peninsulas on Ellesmere Island and north Greenland, to construct bipartite trophic networks. We quantify the complexity, specialization, and nested as well as modular structures of these networks and also determine if these properties varied among the peninsulas. Mammal prey remains were the dominant diet item for all predators, but there was spatial variation in diet composition among peninsulas. The predator-prey networks were less complex, had more specialized interactions, and were more nested and more modular than random expectations. However, the networks displayed only moderate levels of modularity. Predator species had less specialized interactions with prey than prey had with predators. All network properties differed among the peninsulas, which highlights that ecosystems often show complex responses to environmental characteristics. We suggest that gaining knowledge about spatial variation in the characteristics of predator-prey interactions can enhance our ability to manage ecosystems exposed to environmental perturbations, particularly in high arctic environments subject to rapid environmental change.

Snow cover-related camouflage mismatch increases detection by predators

Camouflage expressed by animals is an adaptation to local environments that certain animals express to maximize survival and fitness. Animals at higher latitudes change their coat color according to a seasonally changing environment, expressing a white coat in winter and a darker coat in summer. The timing of molting is tightly linked to the appearance and disappearance of snow and is mainly regulated by photoperiod. However, due to climate change, an increasing mismatch is observed between the coat color of these species and their environment. Here, we conducted an experiment in northern Sweden, with white and brown decoys to study how camouflage (mis)-match influenced (1) predator attraction to decoys, and (2) predation events. Using camera trap data, we showed that mismatching decoys attracted more predators and experienced a higher likelihood of predation events in comparison to matching decoys, suggesting that camouflage mismatched animals experience increased detection by predators. These results provide insight into the function of a seasonal color coat and the need for this adaptation to maximize fitness in an environment that is exposed to high seasonality. Thus, our results suggest that, with increasing climate change and reduced snow cover, animals expressing a seasonal color coat will experience a decrease in survival.

Altitude, latitude and climate zone as determinants of mountain hare (Lepus timidus) coat colour change

Local adaptation to annually changing environments has evolved in numerous species. Seasonal coat colour change is an adaptation that has evolved in multiple mammal and bird species occupying areas that experience seasonal snow cover. It has a critical impact on fitness as predation risk may increase when an individual is mismatched against its habitat's background colour. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between landscape covariates and moult timing in a native winter-adapted herbivore, the mountain hare (Lepus timidus), throughout Norway. Data was collected between 2011 and 2019 at 678 camera trap locations deployed across an environmental gradient. Based on this data, we created a Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that quantified the correlations between landscape covariates and coat colour phenology and analysed among season and year moult timing variation. Our results demonstrate that mountain hare moult timing is strongly correlated with altitude and latitude with hares that live at higher latitudes and altitudes keeping their winter white coats for longer than their conspecifics that inhabit lower latitudes and altitudes. Moult timing was also weakly correlated with climate zone with hares that live in coastal climates keeping their winter white coats for longer than hares that live in continental climates. We found evidence of some among year moult timing variation in spring, but not in autumn. We conclude that mountain hare moult timing has adapted to local environmental conditions throughout Norway.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Habitat and climatic associations of climate-sensitive species along a southern range boundary

Climate change and habitat loss are recognized as important drivers of shifts in wildlife species' geographic distributions. While often considered independently, there is considerable overlap between these drivers, and understanding how they contribute to range shifts can predict future species assemblages and inform effective management. Our objective was to evaluate the impacts of habitat, climatic, and anthropogenic effects on the distributions of climate-sensitive vertebrates along a southern range boundary in Northern Michigan, USA. We combined multiple sources of occurrence data, including harvest and citizen-science data, then used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to determine habitat and climatic associations for four climate-sensitive vertebrate species (American marten [Martes americana], snowshoe hare [Lepus americanus], ruffed grouse [Bonasa umbellus] and moose [Alces alces]). We used total basal area of at-risk forest types to represent habitat, and temperature and winter habitat indices to represent climate. Marten associated with upland spruce-fir and lowland riparian forest types, hares with lowland conifer and aspen-birch, grouse with lowland riparian hardwoods, and moose with upland spruce-fir. Species differed in climatic drivers with hares positively associated with cooler annual temperatures, moose with cooler summer temperatures and grouse with colder winter temperatures. Contrary to expectations, temperature variables outperformed winter habitat indices. Model performance varied greatly among species, as did predicted distributions along the southern edge of the Northwoods region. As multiple species were associated with lowland riparian and upland spruce-fir habitats, these results provide potential for efficient prioritization of habitat management. Both direct and indirect effects from climate change are likely to impact the distribution of climate-sensitive species in the future and the use of multiple data types and sources in the modelling of species distributions can result in more accurate predictions resulting in improved management at policy-relevant scales.

Does coat colour influence survival? A test in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares

Some mammal species inhabiting high-latitude biomes have evolved a seasonal moulting pattern that improves camouflage via white coats in winter and brown coats in summer. In many high-latitude and high-altitude areas, the duration and depth of snow cover has been substantially reduced in the last five decades. This reduction in depth and duration of snow cover may create a mismatch between coat colour and colour of the background environment, and potentially reduce the survival rate of species that depend on crypsis. We used long-term (1977-2020) field data and capture-mark-recapture models to test the hypothesis that whiteness of the coat influences winter apparent survival in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) at Kluane, Yukon, Canada. Whiteness of the snowshoe hare coat in autumn declined during this study, and snowshoe hares with a greater proportion of whiteness in their coats in autumn survived better during winter. However, whiteness of the coat in spring did not affect subsequent summer survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of coat colour change in autumn can reduce overwinter survival. Because declines in cyclic snowshoe hare populations are strongly affected by low winter survival, the timing of coat colour change may adversely affect snowshoe hare population dynamics as climate change continues.

The evolution of white-tailed jackrabbit camouflage in response to past and future seasonal climates

The genetic basis of adaptive traits has rarely been used to predict future vulnerability of populations to climate change. We show that light versus dark seasonal pelage in white-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus townsendii) tracks snow cover and is primarily determined by genetic variation at endothelin receptor type B (EDNRB), corin serine peptidase (CORIN), and agouti signaling protein (ASIP). Winter color variation was associated with deeply divergent alleles at these genes, reflecting selection on both ancestral and introgressed variation. Forecasted reductions in snow cover are likely to induce widespread camouflage mismatch. However, simulated populations with variation for darker winter pelage are predicted to adapt rapidly, providing a trait-based genetic framework to facilitate evolutionary rescue. These discoveries demonstrate how the genetic basis of climate change adaptation can inform conservation.

Coat color mismatch improves survival of a keystone boreal herbivore: Energetic advantages exceed lost camouflage

Climate warming is causing asynchronies between animal phenology and environments. Mismatched traits, such as coat color change mismatched with snow, can decrease survival. However, coat change does not serve a singular adaptive benefit of camouflage, and alternate coat change functions may confer advantages that supersede mismatch costs. We found that mismatch reduced, rather than increased, autumn mortality risk of snowshoe hares in Yukon by 86.5% when mismatch occurred. We suggest that the increased coat insulation and lower metabolic rates of winter-acclimatized hares confer energetic advantages to white mismatched hares that reduce their mortality risk. We found that white mismatched hares forage 17-77 min less per day than matched brown hares between 0°C and -10°C, thus lowering their predation risk and increasing survival. We found no effect of mismatch on spring mortality risk, during which mismatch occurred at warmer temperatures, suggesting a potential temperature limit at which the costs of conspicuousness outweigh energetic benefits.

Dynamic winter weather moderates movement and resource selection of wild turkeys at high-latitude range limits

For wide-ranging species in temperate environments, populations at high-latitude range limits are subject to more extreme conditions, colder temperatures, and greater snow accumulation compared with their core range. As climate change progresses, these bounding pressures may become more moderate on average, while extreme weather occurs more frequently. Individuals can mitigate temporarily extreme conditions by changing daily activity budgets and exhibiting plasticity in resource selection, both of which facilitate existence at and expansion of high-latitude range boundaries. However, relatively little work has explored how animals moderate movement and vary resource selection with changing weather, and a general framework for such investigations is lacking. We applied hidden Markov models and step selection functions to GPS data from wintering wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) near their northern range limit to identify how weather influenced transition among discrete movement states, as well as state-specific resource selection. We found that turkeys were more likely to spend time in a stationary state as wind chill temperatures decreased and snow depth increased. Both stationary and roosting turkeys selected conifer forests and avoided land covers associated with foraging, such as agriculture and residential areas, while shifting their strength of selection for these features during poor weather. In contrast, mobile turkeys showed relatively weak resource selection, with less response in selection coefficients during poor weather. Our findings illustrate that behavioral plasticity in response to weather was context dependent, but movement behaviors most associated with poor weather were also those in which resource selection was most plastic. Given our results, the potential for wild turkey range expansion will partly be determined by the availability of habitat that allows them to withstand periodic inclement weather. Combining hidden Markov models with step selection functions is broadly applicable for evaluating plasticity in animal behavior and dynamic resource selection in response to changing weather. We studied turkeys at northern range limits, but this approach is applicable for any system expected to experience significant changes in the coming decade, and may be particularly relevant to populations existing at range peripheries.

Temperature, size and developmental plasticity in birds

As temperatures increase, there is growing evidence that species across much of the tree of life are getting smaller. These climate change-driven size reductions are often interpreted as a temporal analogue of the observation that individuals within a species tend to be smaller in the warmer parts of the species' range. For ectotherms, there has been a broad effort to understand the role of developmental plasticity in temperature-size relationships, but in endotherms, this mechanism has received relatively little attention in favour of selection-based explanations. We review the evidence for a role of developmental plasticity in warming-driven size reductions in birds and highlight insulin-like growth factors as a potential mechanism underlying plastic responses to temperature in endotherms. We find that, as with ectotherms, changes in temperature during development can result in shifts in body size in birds, with size reductions associated with warmer temperatures being the most frequent association. This suggests developmental plasticity may be an important, but largely overlooked, mechanism underlying warming-driven size reductions in endotherms. Plasticity and natural selection have very different constraining forces, thus understanding the mechanism linking temperature and body size in endotherms has broad implications for predicting future impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Colour moult phenology and camouflage mismatch in polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes

Species that seasonally moult from brown to white to match snowy backgrounds become conspicuous and experience increased predation risk as snow cover duration declines. Long-term adaptation to camouflage mismatch in a changing climate might occur through phenotypic plasticity in colour moult phenology and or evolutionary shifts in moult rate or timing. Also, adaptation may include evolutionary shifts towards winter brown phenotypes that forgo the winter white moult. Most studies of these processes have occurred in winter white populations, with little attention to polymorphic populations with sympatric winter brown and winter white morphs. Here, we used remote camera traps to record moult phenology and mismatch in two polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes in Sweden over 2 years. We found that the colder, more northern population moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring. Next, foxes moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring during colder and snowier years. Finally, white foxes experienced relatively low camouflage mismatch while blue foxes were mismatched against snowy backgrounds most of the autumn through the spring. Because the brown-on-white mismatch imposes no evident costs, we predict that as snow duration decreases, increasing blue morph frequencies might help facilitate species persistence.

Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.

Anomalous snow events increase mortality for a winter-adapted species

Winter is a costly time for animals, requiring individuals to adapt to increased energetic costs, and reduced resources. Porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum Linnaeus, 1758) confront winter by storing and catabolizing somatic stores. Increasing temperatures and attenuated snow conditions due to climate change increase porcupine survival, but impacts of greater weather variability has not been explored. In April of 2018, an anomalously heavy and late snowstorm occurred at our long-term study site in central Wisconsin followed by multiple mortalities among adult porcupines. We assessed cause of mortality and determined nutritional condition by extracting bone marrow, and quantifying lipid content. Porcupines that died following the snow event had lower fat stores than the fall 2019 group, and likely died of starvation. We estimated survival of female porcupines during the winters 2012 & 2015-2018 to assess the effects of snow conditions and nutritional condition on survival. Survival declined with increased snow depth but increased with improved nutritional condition. The mass starvation event we observed in 2018 appeared to have resulted from deep snow increasing locomotive costs and reducing nutritional condition. As climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events, including extreme snowfalls, we predict that the frequency of such clustered mortalities will increase.

Animal Coloration in the Anthropocene

Natural habitats are increasingly affected by anthropogenically driven environmental changes resulting from habitat destruction, chemical and light pollution, and climate change. Organisms inhabiting such habitats are faced with novel disturbances that can alter their modes of signaling. Coloration is one such sensory modality whose production, perception and function is being affected by human-induced disturbances. Animals that acquire pigment derivatives through diet are adversely impacted by the introduction of chemical pollutants into their environments as well as by general loss of natural habitat due to urbanization or logging leading to declines in pigment sources. Those species that do manage to produce color-based signals and displays may face disruptions to their signaling medium in the form of light pollution and turbidity. Furthermore, forest fragmentation and the resulting breaks in canopy cover can expose animals to predation due to the influx of light into previously dark environments. Global climate warming has been decreasing snow cover in arctic regions, causing birds and mammals that undergo seasonal molts to appear conspicuous against a snowless background. Ectotherms that rely on color for thermoregulation are under pressure to change their appearances. Rapid changes in habitat type through severe fire events or coral bleaching also challenge animals to match their backgrounds. Through this review, we aim to describe the wide-ranging impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on visual ecology and suggest directions for the use of coloration both as an indicator of ecological change and as a tool for conservation.

Landscape genomics of the streamside salamander: Implications for species management in the face of environmental change

Understanding spatial patterns of genetic differentiation and local adaptation is critical in a period of rapid environmental change. Climate change and anthropogenic development have led to population declines and shifting geographic distributions in numerous species. The streamside salamander, Ambystoma barbouri, is an endemic amphibian with a small geographic range that predominantly inhabits small, ephemeral streams. As A. barbouri is listed as near-threatened by the IUCN, we describe range-wide patterns of genetic differentiation and adaptation to assess the species' potential to respond to environmental change. We use outlier scans and genetic-environment association analyses to identify genomic variation putatively underlying local adaptation across the species' geographic range. We find evidence for adaptation with a polygenic architecture and a set of candidate SNPs that identify genes putatively contributing to local adaptation. Our results build on earlier work that suggests that some A. barbouri populations are locally adapted despite evidence for asymmetric gene flow between the range core and periphery. Taken together, the body of work describing the evolutionary genetics of range limits in A. barbouri suggests that the species may be unlikely to respond naturally to environmental challenges through a range shift or in situ adaptation. We suggest that management efforts such as assisted migration may be necessary in future.

The evolutionary pathways for local adaptation in mountain hares

Understanding the evolution of local adaptations is a central aim of evolutionary biology and key for the identification of unique populations and lineages of conservation relevance. By combining RAD sequencing and whole‐genome sequencing, we identify genetic signatures of local adaptation in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) from isolated and distinctive habitats of its wide distribution: Ireland, the Alps and Fennoscandia. Demographic modelling suggested that the split of these mountain hares occurred around 20 thousand years ago, providing the opportunity to study adaptive evolution over a short timescale. Using genome‐wide scans, we identified signatures of extreme differentiation among hares from distinct geographic areas that overlap with area‐specific selective sweeps, suggesting targets for local adaptation. Several identified candidate genes are associated with traits related to the uniqueness of the different environments inhabited by the three groups of mountain hares, including coat colour, ability to live at high altitudes and variation in body size. In Irish mountain hares, a variant of ASIP, a gene previously implicated in introgression‐driven winter coat colour variation in mountain and snowshoe hares (L. americanus), may underlie brown winter coats, reinforcing the repeated nature of evolution at ASIP moulding adaptive seasonal colouration. Comparative genomic analyses across several hare species suggested that mountain hares’ adaptive variants appear predominantly species‐specific. However, using coalescent simulations, we also show instances where the candidate adaptive variants have been introduced via introgressive hybridization. Our study shows that standing adaptive variation, including that introgressed from other species, was a crucial component of the post‐glacial dynamics of species.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.

Integrating plant stoichiometry and feeding experiments: state-dependent forage choice and its implications on body mass

Intraspecific feeding choices comprise a large portion of herbivore foraging decisions. Plant resource quality is heterogeneously distributed, affected by nutrient availability and growing conditions. Herbivores navigate landscapes, foraging not only according to food qualities, but also energetic and nutritional demands. We test three non-exclusive foraging hypotheses using the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus): (1) herbivore feeding choices and body conditions respond to intraspecific plant quality variation; (2) high energetic demands mitigate feeding responses; and (3) feeding responses are inflated when nutritional demands are high. We measured black spruce (Picea mariana) nitrogen, phosphorus and terpene compositions, as indicators of quality, within a snowshoe hare trapping grid and found plant growing conditions to explain spruce quality variation (R² < 0.36). We then offered two qualities of spruce (H1) from the trapping grid to hares in cafeteria-style experiments and measured their feeding and body condition responses (n = 75). We proxied energetic demands (H2) with ambient temperature and coat insulation (% white coat) and nutritional demands (H3) with the spruce quality (nitrogen and phosphorus content) in home ranges. Hares with the strongest preference for high-quality spruce lost on average 2.2% less weight than hares who ate the least high-quality spruce relative to low-quality spruce. The results supported our energetic predictions as follows: hares in colder temperatures and with less-insulative coats (lower % white) consumed more spruce and were less selective towards high-quality spruce. Collectively, we found variation in plant growing conditions within herbivore home ranges substantial enough to affect herbivore body conditions, but energetic stats mediate plant-herbivore interactions.

Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.

Hybridization with mountain hares increases the functional allelic repertoire in brown hares

Brown hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas) are able to hybridize with mountain hares (L. timidus Linnaeus) and produce fertile offspring, which results in cross-species gene flow. However, not much is known about the functional significance of this genetic introgression. Using targeted sequencing of candidate loci combined with mtDNA genotyping, we found the ancestral genetic diversity in the Finnish brown hare to be small, likely due to founder effect and range expansion, while gene flow from mountain hares constitutes an important source of functional genetic variability. Some of this variability, such as the alleles of the mountain hare thermogenin (uncoupling protein 1, UCP1), might have adaptive advantage for brown hares, whereas immunity-related MHC alleles are reciprocally exchanged and maintained via balancing selection. Our study offers a rare example where an expanding species can increase its allelic variability through hybridization with a congeneric native species, offering a route to shortcut evolutionary adaptation to the local environmental conditions.

Museomics dissects the genetic basis for adaptive seasonal colouration in the least weasel

Dissecting the link between genetic variation and adaptive phenotypes provides outstanding opportunities to understand fundamental evolutionary processes. Here, we use a museomics approach to investigate the genetic basis and evolution of winter coat colouration morphs in least weasels (Mustela nivalis), a repeated adaptation for camouflage in mammals with seasonal pelage colour moults across regions with varying winter snow. Whole-genome sequence data was obtained from biological collections and mapped onto a newly assembled reference genome for the species. Sampling represented two replicate transition zones between nivalis and vulgaris colouration morphs in Europe, which typically develop white or brown winter coats, respectively. Population analyses showed that the morph distribution across transition zones is not a by-product of historical structure. Association scans linked a 200 kb genomic region to colouration morph, which was validated by genotyping museum specimens from inter-morph experimental crosses. Genotyping the wild populations narrowed down the association to pigmentation gene MC1R and pinpointed a candidate amino acid change co-segregating with colouration morph. This polymorphism replaces an ancestral leucine residue by lysine at the start of the first extracellular loop of the protein in the vulgaris morph. A selective sweep signature overlapped the association region in vulgaris, suggesting that past adaptation favoured winter-brown morphs and can anchor future adaptive responses to decreasing winter snow. Using biological collections as valuable resources to study natural adaptations, our study showed a new evolutionary route generating winter colour variation in mammals and that seasonal camouflage can be modulated by changes at single key genes.

Habitat disturbance alters color contrast and the detectability of cryptic and aposematic frogs

Animals use color both to conceal and signal their presence, with patterns that match the background, disrupt shape recognition, or highlight features important for communication. The forms that these color patterns take are responses to the visual systems that observe them and the environments within which they are viewed. Increasingly, however, these environments are being affected by human activity. We studied how pattern characteristics and habitat change may affect the detectability of three frog color patterns from the Bocas del Toro archipelago in Panama: Beige-Striped Brown Allobates talamancae and two spotted morphs of Oophaga pumilio, Black-Spotted Green and Black-Spotted Red. To assess detectability, we used visual modeling of conspecifics and potential predators, along with a computer-based detection experiment with human participants. Although we found no evidence for disruptive camouflage, we did find clear evidence that A. talamancae stripes are inherently more cryptic than O. pumilio spots regardless of color. We found no evidence that color pattern polytypism in O. pumilio is related to differences in the forest floor between natural sites. We did, however, find strong evidence that human disturbance affects the visual environment and modifies absolute and rank order frog detectability. Human-induced environmental change reduces the effectiveness of camouflage in A. talamancae, reduces detectability of Black-Spotted Green O. pumilio, and increases chromatic contrast, but not detectability, in Black-Spotted Red O. pumilio. Insofar as predators may learn about prey defenses and make foraging decisions based on relative prey availability and suitability, such changes may have wider implications for predator–prey dynamics.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Seven decades of southern range dynamics of Canada lynx

The range of the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) has contracted substantially from its historical range. Using harvest records, we found that the southern range of the lynx in Ontario in the late 1940s collapsed and then, in a short period of time, increased to its largest extent in the mid-1960s when the lynx range spread south of the boreal forest for a decade. After this expansion, the southern range contracted northwards beginning in the 1970s. Most recently, there has been a slight expansion between 2010 and 2017. We have attributed these dynamics on the southern range periphery to the fluctuation of the boreal lynx population in the core of the species' range. In addition, connectivity to boreal lynx populations and snow depth seemed to condition whether the lynx expanded into an area. However, we did not find any evidence to suggest that these changes were due to anthropogenic landscape disturbances or competition. The boreal lynx population does not reach the peak abundance it once did, without which we would not expect to see large expansions of the southern lynx range as in the mid-1960s. Our results suggest that the southern lynx range in Ontario has been driven by the magnitude of the boreal lynx population cycle, connectivity to the boreal forest, and snow conditions. Future persistence of lynx in the southern range periphery will likely depend on dynamics in the range core.

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point transect distance sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: (1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and (2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved nonlinearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.

Polymorphism of winter phenotype in Siberian hamster: consecutive litters do not differ in photoresponsiveness but prolonged acclimation to long photoperiod inhibits winter molt

BACKGROUND

The theory of delayed life history effects assumes that phenotype of adult individual results from environmental conditions experienced at birth and as juvenile. In seasonal environments, being born late in the reproductive season affects timing of puberty, body condition, longevity, and fitness. We hypothesized that late-born individuals are more prone to respond to short photoperiod (SP) than early born ones. We used Siberian hamsters Phodopus sungorus, a model species characterized by high polymorphism of winter phenotype. We experimentally distinguished the effect of litter order (first or third) from the effect of exposure to long photoperiod (LP) before winter (3 months or 5 months) by manipulating the duration of LP acclimation in both litters. We predicted that, irrespective of the litter order, individuals exposed to long photoperiod for a short time have less time to gather energy resources and consequently are more prone to developing energy-conserving phenotypes. To assess effect of litter order, duration of acclimation to long days, and phenotype on basal cost of living we measured basal metabolic rate (BMR) of hamsters.

RESULTS

Individuals born in third litters had faster growth rates and were bigger than individuals from first litters, but these differences vanished before transfer to SP. Litter order or duration of LP acclimation had no effects on torpor use or seasonal body mass changes, but prolonged acclimation to LP inhibited winter molting both in first and third litters. Moreover, individuals that did not molt had significantly higher BMR in SP than those which molted to white fur. Although one phenotype usually predominated within a litter, littermates were often heterogeneous. We also found that over 10% of individuals presented late response to short photoperiod.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that duration of postnatal exposure to LP may define propensity to photoresponsiveness, regardless of the litter in which animal was born. Existence of littermates presenting different phenotypes suggests a prudent reproductive strategy of investing into offspring of varied phenotypes, that might be favored depending on environmental conditions. This strategy could have evolved in response to living in stochastic environment.

Fitness and fur colouration: Testing the camouflage and thermoregulation hypotheses in an Arctic mammal

Selection for crypsis has been recognized as an important ecological driver of animal colouration, whereas the relative importance of thermoregulation is more contentious with mixed empirical support. A potential thermal advantage of darker individuals has been observed in a wide range of animal species. Arctic animals that exhibit colour polymorphisms and undergo seasonal colour moults are interesting study subjects for testing the two alternative hypotheses: demographic performance of different colour morphs might be differentially affected by snow cover with a cryptic advantage for lighter morphs, or conversely by winter temperature with a thermal advantage for darker morphs. In this study, we explored whether camouflage and thermoregulation might explain differences in reproduction and survival between the white and blue colour morphs of the Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus under natural conditions. Juvenile and adult survival, breeding propensity and litter size were measured for 798 captive-bred and released or wild-born Arctic foxes monitored during an 11-year period (2007-2017) in two subpopulations in south-central Norway. We investigated the proportion of the two colour morphs and compared their demographic performance in relation to spatial variation in duration of snow cover, onset of snow season and winter temperatures. After population re-establishment, a higher proportion of blue individuals was observed among wild-born Arctic foxes compared to the proportion of blue foxes released from the captive population. Our field study provides the first evidence for an effect of colour morph on the reproductive performance of Arctic foxes under natural conditions, with a higher breeding propensity of the blue morph compared to the white one. Performance of the two colour morphs was not differentially affected by the climatic variables, except for juvenile survival. Blue morph juveniles showed a tendency for higher survival under colder winter temperatures but lower survival under warmer temperatures compared to white morph juveniles. Overall, our findings do not consistently support predictions of the camouflage or the thermoregulation hypotheses. The higher success of blue foxes suggests an advantage of the dark morph not directly related to disruptive selection by crypsis or thermoregulation. Our results rather point to physiological adaptations and behavioural traits not necessarily connected to thermoregulation, such as stress response, immune function, sexual behaviour and aggressiveness. Our findings highlight the need to explore the potential role of genetic linkage or pleiotropy in influencing the fitness of white and blue Arctic foxes as well as other species with colour polymorphisms.

Evolutionary Responses to Warming

Climate change is predicted to dramatically alter biological diversity and distributions, driving extirpations, extinctions, and extensive range shifts across the globe. Warming can also, however, lead to phenotypic or behavioural plasticity, as species adapt to new conditions. Recent genomic research indicates that some species are capable of rapid evolution as selection favours adaptive responses to environmental change and altered or novel niche spaces. New advances are providing mechanistic insights into how temperature might accelerate evolution in the Anthropocene. These discoveries highlight intriguing new research directions - such as using geothermal and polar systems combined with powerful genomic tools - that will help us to understand the processes underpinning adaptive evolution and better project how ecosystems will change in a warming world.

Lack of phenological shift leads to increased camouflage mismatch in mountain hares

Understanding whether organisms will be able to adapt to human-induced stressors currently endangering their existence is an urgent priority. Globally, multiple species moult from a dark summer to white winter coat to maintain camouflage against snowy landscapes. Decreasing snow cover duration owing to climate change is increasing mismatch in seasonal camouflage. To directly test for adaptive responses to recent changes in snow cover, we repeated historical (1950s) field studies of moult phenology in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in Scotland. We found little evidence that population moult phenology has shifted to align seasonal coat colour with shorter snow seasons, or that phenotypic plasticity prevented increases in camouflage mismatch. The lack of responses resulted in 35 additional days of mismatch between 1950 and 2016. We emphasize the potential role of weak directional selection pressure and low genetic variability in shaping the scope for adaptive responses to anthropogenic stressors.

A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change

During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.

Research and Conservation in the Greater Gombe Ecosystem: Challenges and Opportunities

The study of chimpanzees in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, started by Jane Goodall in 1960, provided pioneering accounts of chimpanzee behavior and ecology. With funding from multiple sources, including the Jane Goodall Institute (JGI) and grants from private foundations and federal programs, the project has continued for sixty years, providing a wealth of information about our evolutionary cousins. These chimpanzees face two main challenges to their survival: infectious disease - including simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVcpz), which can cause Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in chimpanzees - and the deforestation of land outside the park. A health monitoring program has increased understanding of the pathogens affecting chimpanzees and has promoted measures to characterize and reduce disease risk. Deforestation reduces connections between Gombe and other chimpanzee populations, which can cause loss of genetic diversity. To promote habitat restoration, JGI facilitated participatory village land use planning, in which communities voluntarily allocated land to a network of Village Land Forest Reserves. Expected benefits to people include stabilizing watersheds, improving water supplies, and ensuring a supply of forest resources. Surveys and genetic analyses confirm that chimpanzees persist on village lands and remain connected to the Gombe population. Many challenges remain, but the regeneration of natural forest on previously degraded lands provides hope that conservation solutions can be found that benefit both people and wildlife. Conservation work in the Greater Gombe Ecosystem has helped promote broader efforts to plan and work for conservation elsewhere in Tanzania and across Africa.

The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.

Snow-mediated plasticity does not prevent camouflage mismatch

Global reduction in snow cover duration is one of the most consistent and widespread climate change outcomes. Declining snow duration has severe negative consequences for diverse taxa including seasonally color molting species, which rely on snow for camouflage. However, phenotypic plasticity may facilitate adaptation to reduced snow duration. Plastic responses could occur in the color molt phenology or through behavior that minimizes coat color mismatch or its consequences. We quantified molt phenology of 200 wild snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), and measured microhabitat choice and local snow cover. Similar to other studies, we found that hares did not show behavioral plasticity to minimize coat color mismatch via background matching; instead they preferred colder, snow free areas regardless of their coat color. Furthermore, hares did not behaviorally mitigate the negative consequences of mismatch by choosing resting sites with denser vegetation cover when mismatched. Importantly, we demonstrated plasticity in the initiation and the rate of the molt and established the direct effect of snow on molt phenology; greater snow cover was associated with whiter hares and this association was not due to whiter hares preferring snowier areas. However, despite the observed snow-mediated plasticity in molt phenology, camouflage mismatch with white hares on brown snowless ground persisted and was more frequent during early snowmelt. Thus, we find no evidence that phenotypic plasticity in snowshoe hares is sufficient to facilitate adaptive rescue to camouflage mismatch under climate change.

Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Sea Turtles in the Context of Climate Change: Uncovering the Adaptive Significance

The adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles remains unknown decades after TSD was first identified in this group. Concurrently, there is growing concern about the effect that rising temperatures may have on species with TSD, potentially producing extremely biased sex ratios or offspring of only one sex. The current state-of the-art in TSD research on sea turtles is reviewed here and, against current paradigm, it is proposed that TSD provides an advantage under warming climates. By means of coadaptation between early survival and sex ratios, sea turtles are able to maintain populations. When offspring survival declines at high temperatures, the sex that increases future fecundity (females) is produced, increasing resilience to climate warming. TSD could have helped reptiles to survive mass extinctions in the past via this model. Flaws in research on sex determination in sea turtles are also identified and it is suggested that the development of new techniques will revolutionize the field.

Personality differences in the selection of dynamic refugia have demographic consequences for a winter-adapted bird

For overwintering species, individuals' ability to find refugia from inclement weather and predators probably confers strong fitness benefits. How animals use their environment can be mediated by their personality (e.g. risk-taking), but does personality mediate how overwintering species select refugia? Snow cover is a dynamic winter characteristic that can influence crypsis or provide below-the-snow refugia. We explored how wintering ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) selected snow roosting sites, a behaviour that reduces stress and cold exposure. We linked selection for approximately 700 roosts with survival of 42 grouse, and showed that grouse generally selected deeper snow and warmer areas. Grouse found in shallow snow were less likely to survive winter. However, individuals that selected deep snow improved their survival, suggesting that demographic consequences of selecting winter refugia are mediated by differences in personality. Our study provides a crucial, and seldom addressed, link between personality in resource selection and resulting demographic consequences.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

Digest: How the snowshoe hare got its brown coat: Convergent evolution or gene flow?

The winter-brown phenotype of snowshoe hares in the Pacific Northwest was acquired through hybridization with black-tailed jackrabbits. Some snowshoe hares in more northern boreal populations exhibit the same phenotype, but how did they acquire it? Jones and colleagues show that the phenotype in the boreal populations is the outcome of convergent evolution, highlighting the importance of understanding the genetic basis of a trait in reconstructing its evolution.

Testing repeatability, measurement error and species differentiation when using geometric morphometrics on complex shapes: a case study of Patagonian lizards of the genus Liolaemus (Squamata: Liolaemini)

The repeatability of findings is the key factor behind scientific reliability, and the failure to reproduce scientific findings has been termed the ‘replication crisis’. Geometric morphometrics is an established tool in evolutionary biology. However, different operators (and/or different methods) could act as large sources of variation in the data obtained. Here, we investigated inter-operator error in geometric morphometric protocols on complex shapes of Liolaemus lizards, as well as measurement error in three taxa varying in their difficulty of digitalization. We also examined the potential for these protocols to discriminate among complex shapes in closely related species. We found a wide range of inter-operator error, contributing between 19.5% and 60% to the total variation. Moreover, measurement error increased with the complexity of the quantified shape. All protocols were able to discriminate between species, but the use of more landmarks did not imply better performance. We present evidence that complex shapes reduce repeatability, highlighting the need to explore different sources of variation that could lead to such low repeatability. Lastly, we suggest some recommendations to improve the repeatability and reliability of geometric morphometrics results.

Lizard colour plasticity tracks background seasonal changes

Environmental heterogeneity on a spatial and temporal scale fosters an organism's capacity to plastically alter coloration. Predation risk might favour the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in colour patterns, as individuals who change colour throughout the year may be able to improve their fitness. Here we explored the change in dorsal pigmentation of the Italian wall lizard (Podarcis siculus campestris) at three time points (March, July, October) during a period of activity in a Mediterranean natural area in southern Italy. Following a preliminary investigation conducted in 2018, during 2019 we captured 135 lizards and took a picture of their ventral scales to check for possible recapture over the sessions. Lizard dorsal pictures were collected in the field with the support of a reference chart to quantitatively estimate chromatic variables (hue, saturation and value). At the same time, pictures of the environmental background were collected. Our findings suggest that lizards are capable of altering dorsal coloration during seasonal change. They vary from green at the onset of spring, to brownish in the middle of summer and to a greyish colour in October. This modification closely followed environmental background colour variation and enhanced lizard crypsis during each season.