Infection of the fittest: devil facial tumour disease has greatest effect on individuals with highest reproductive output

Adaptive potential in the face of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) not only cause catastrophic declines in wildlife populations but also generate selective pressures that may result in rapid evolutionary responses. One such EID is devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) in the Tasmanian devil. DFTD is almost always fatal and has reduced the average lifespan of individuals by around 2 years, likely causing strong selection for traits that reduce susceptibility to the disease, but population decline has also left Tasmanian devils vulnerable to inbreeding depression. We analysed 22 years of data from an ongoing study of a population of Tasmanian devils on Freycinet Peninsula, Tasmania, to (1) identify whether DFTD may be causing selection on body size, by estimating phenotypic and genetic correlations between DFTD and size traits, (2) estimate the additive genetic variance of susceptibility to DFTD, and (3) investigate whether size traits or susceptibility to DFTD were under inbreeding depression. We found a positive phenotypic relationship between head width and susceptibility to DFTD, but this was not underpinned by a genetic correlation. Conversely, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between body weight and susceptibility to DFTD, and there was evidence for a negative genetic correlation between susceptibility to DFTD and body weight. There was additive genetic variance in susceptibility to DFTD, head width and body weight, but there was no evidence for inbreeding depression in any of these traits. These results suggest that Tasmanian devils have the potential to respond adaptively to DFTD, although the realised evolutionary response will critically further depend on the evolution of DFTD itself.

Intergenomic signatures of coevolution between Tasmanian devils and an infectious cancer

Coevolution is common and frequently governs host-pathogen interaction outcomes. Phenotypes underlying these interactions often manifest as the combined products of the genomes of interacting species, yet traditional quantitative trait mapping approaches ignore these intergenomic interactions. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), an infectious cancer afflicting Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii), has decimated devil populations due to universal host susceptibility and a fatality rate approaching 100%. Here, we used a recently developed joint genome-wide association study (i.e., co-GWAS) approach, 15 y of mark-recapture data, and 960 genomes to identify intergenomic signatures of coevolution between devils and DFTD. Using a traditional GWA approach, we found that both devil and DFTD genomes explained a substantial proportion of variance in how quickly susceptible devils became infected, although genomic architectures differed across devils and DFTD; the devil genome had fewer loci of large effect whereas the DFTD genome had a more polygenic architecture. Using a co-GWA approach, devil-DFTD intergenomic interactions explained ~3× more variation in how quickly susceptible devils became infected than either genome alone, and the top genotype-by-genotype interactions were significantly enriched for cancer genes and signatures of selection. A devil regulatory mutation was associated with differential expression of a candidate cancer gene and showed putative allele matching effects with two DFTD coding sequence variants. Our results highlight the need to account for intergenomic interactions when investigating host-pathogen (co)evolution and emphasize the importance of such interactions when considering devil management strategies.

Complex associations between cancer progression and immune gene expression reveals early influence of transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devils

The world's largest extant carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil, is challenged by Devil Facial Tumor Disease (DFTD), a fatal, clonally transmitted cancer. In two decades, DFTD has spread across 95% of the species distributional range. A previous study has shown that factors such as season, geographic location, and infection with DFTD can impact the expression of immune genes in Tasmanian devils. To date, no study has investigated within-individual immune gene expression changes prior to and throughout the course of DFTD infection. To explore possible changes in immune response, we investigated four locations across Tasmania that differed in DFTD exposure history, ranging between 2 and >30 years. Our study demonstrated considerable complexity in the immune responses to DFTD. The same factors (sex, age, season, location and DFTD infection) affected immune gene expression both across and within devils, although seasonal and location specific variations were diminished in DFTD affected devils. We also found that expression of both adaptive and innate immune genes starts to alter early in DFTD infection and continues to change as DFTD progresses. A novel finding was that the lower expression of immune genes MHC-II, NKG2D and CD8 may predict susceptibility to earlier DFTD infection. A case study of a single devil with regressed tumor showed opposite/contrasting immune gene expression patterns compared to the general trends observed across devils with DFTD infection. Our study highlights the complexity of DFTD's interactions with the host immune system and the need for long-term studies to fully understand how DFTD alters the evolutionary trajectory of devil immunity.

In vitro competition between two transmissible cancers and potential implications for their host, the Tasmanian devil

Since the emergence of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFT1), in the 1980s, wild Tasmanian devil populations have been in decline. In 2016, a second, independently evolved transmissible cancer (DFT2) was discovered raising concerns for survival of the host species. Here, we applied experimental and modelling frameworks to examine competition dynamics between the two transmissible cancers in vitro. Using representative cell lines for DFT1 and DFT2, we have found that in monoculture, DFT2 grows twice as fast as DFT1 but reaches lower maximum cell densities. Using co-cultures, we demonstrate that DFT2 outcompetes DFT1: the number of DFT1 cells decreasing over time, never reaching exponential growth. This phenomenon could not be replicated when cells were grown separated by a semi-permeable membrane, consistent with exertion of mechanical stress on DFT1 cells by DFT2. A logistic model and a Lotka-Volterra competition model were used to interrogate monoculture and co-culture growth curves, respectively, suggesting DFT2 is a better competitor than DFT1, but also showing that competition outcomes might depend on the initial number of cells, at least in the laboratory. We provide theories how the in vitro results could be translated to observations in the wild and propose that these results may indicate that although DFT2 is currently in a smaller geographic area than DFT1, it could have the potential to outcompete DFT1. Furthermore, we provide a framework for improving the parameterization of epidemiological models applied to these cancer lineages, which will inform future disease management.

Understanding the evolution of immune genes in jawed vertebrates

Driven by co-evolution with pathogens, host immunity continuously adapts to optimize defence against pathogens within a given environment. Recent advances in genetics, genomics and transcriptomics have enabled a more detailed investigation into how immunogenetic variation shapes the diversity of immune responses seen across domestic and wild animal species. However, a deeper understanding of the diverse molecular mechanisms that shape immunity within and among species is still needed to gain insight into-and generate evolutionary hypotheses on-the ultimate drivers of immunological differences. Here, we discuss current advances in our understanding of molecular evolution underpinning jawed vertebrate immunity. First, we introduce the immunome concept, a framework for characterizing genes involved in immune defence from a comparative perspective, then we outline how immune genes of interest can be identified. Second, we focus on how different selection modes are observed acting across groups of immune genes and propose hypotheses to explain these differences. We then provide an overview of the approaches used so far to study the evolutionary heterogeneity of immune genes on macro and microevolutionary scales. Finally, we discuss some of the current evidence as to how specific pathogens affect the evolution of different groups of immune genes. This review results from the collective discussion on the current key challenges in evolutionary immunology conducted at the ESEB 2021 Online Satellite Symposium: Molecular evolution of the vertebrate immune system, from the lab to natural populations.

Season, weight, and age, but not transmissible cancer, affect tick loads in the endangered Tasmanian devil

The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is a carnivorous marsupial threatened by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD). While we have a good understanding of the effect of the transmissible cancer on its host, little information is available about its potential interactions with ectoparasites. With this study, we aimed to determine the factors driving tick loads in a DFTD affected Tasmanian devil population, using long-term mark-recapture data. We investigated the effect of a range of life history traits (age, weight, sex, body condition) and of DFTD (time since DFTD arrival and presence of tumours) on the ectoparasitic tick load of the devils. Mixed effect models revealed that tick load in Tasmanian devils was primarily driven by season, weight, body condition and age. Young devils had more ticks compared to older or healthier devils. The reduction in Tasmanian devil population size over the past 14 years at the studied site had little effect on tick infestation. We also found that devils infected by DFTD had a similar tick load compared to those free of observable tumours, suggesting no interaction between the transmissible cancer and tick load. Our study highlights seasonality and life cycle as primary drivers of tick infestation in Tasmanian devils and the need for further investigations to integrate devil stress and immune dynamics with ectoparasite counts.

Transmissible cancer influences immune gene expression in an endangered marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii)

Understanding the effects of wildlife diseases on populations requires insight into local environmental conditions, host defence mechanisms, host life‐history trade‐offs, pathogen population dynamics, and their interactions. The survival of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) is challenged by a novel, fitness limiting pathogen, Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), a clonally transmissible, contagious cancer. In order to understand the devils’ capacity to respond to DFTD, it is crucial to gain information on factors influencing the devils’ immune system. By using RT‐qPCR, we investigated how DFTD infection in association with intrinsic (sex and age) and environmental (season) factors influences the expression of 10 immune genes in Tasmanian devil blood. Our study showed that the expression of immune genes (both innate and adaptive) differed across seasons, a pattern that was altered when infected with DFTD. The expression of immunogbulins IgE and IgM:IgG showed downregulation in colder months in DFTD infected animals. We also observed strong positive association between the expression of an innate immune gene, CD16, and DFTD infection. Our results demonstrate that sampling across seasons, age groups and environmental conditions are beneficial when deciphering the complex ecoevolutionary interactions of not only conventional host‐parasite systems, but also of host and diseases with high mortality rates, such as transmissible cancers.

Saving the Devils Is in the Details: Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumor Disease Can Be Eliminated with Interventions

Tasmanian Devils facial tumor disease (DFTD) is severely impacting the population of this wild animal. We developed a computational model of the population of Tasmanian Devils, and the change induced by DFTD. We use this model to test possible intervention strategies Tasmanian conservationists could do. We investigate bait drop vaccination programs, diseased animal removals programs, and evolution of natural immunity. We conclude that a combination of intervention strategies gives the most favorable outcome. An additional goal of this paper is reproducibility of our results. Our StochSS software platform features the ability to share and reproduce the computational notebooks that created all of the results in the paper. We endeavor that all readers should be able to reproduce our results with minimum effort.

Disruption of Metapopulation Structure Reduces Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease Spread at the Expense of Abundance and Genetic Diversity

Metapopulation structure plays a fundamental role in the persistence of wildlife populations. It can also drive the spread of infectious diseases and transmissible cancers such as the Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD). While disrupting this structure can reduce disease spread, it can also impair host resilience by disrupting gene flow and colonisation dynamics. Using an individual-based metapopulation model we investigated the synergistic effects of host dispersal, disease transmission rate and inter-individual contact distance for transmission, on the spread and persistence of DFTD from local to regional scales. Disease spread, and the ensuing population declines, are synergistically determined by individuals' dispersal, disease transmission rate and within-population mixing. Transmission rates can be magnified by high dispersal and inter-individual transmission distance. The isolation of local populations effectively reduced metapopulation-level disease prevalence but caused severe declines in metapopulation size and genetic diversity. The relative position of managed (i.e., isolated) local populations had a significant effect on disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of considering metapopulation structure when implementing metapopulation-scale disease control measures. Our findings suggest that population isolation is not an ideal management method for preventing disease spread in species inhabiting already fragmented landscapes, where genetic diversity and extinction risk are already a concern.

Spatial variation in gene expression of Tasmanian devil facial tumors despite minimal host transcriptomic response to infection

BACKGROUND

Transmissible cancers lie at the intersection of oncology and infectious disease, two traditionally divergent fields for which gene expression studies are particularly useful for identifying the molecular basis of phenotypic variation. In oncology, transcriptomics studies, which characterize the expression of thousands of genes, have identified processes leading to heterogeneity in cancer phenotypes and individual prognoses. More generally, transcriptomics studies of infectious diseases characterize interactions between host, pathogen, and environment to better predict population-level outcomes. Tasmanian devils have been impacted dramatically by a transmissible cancer (devil facial tumor disease; DFTD) that has led to widespread population declines. Despite initial predictions of extinction, populations have persisted at low levels, due in part to heterogeneity in host responses, particularly between sexes. However, the processes underlying this variation remain unknown.

RESULTS

We sequenced transcriptomes from healthy and DFTD-infected devils, as well as DFTD tumors, to characterize host responses to DFTD infection, identify differing host-tumor molecular interactions between sexes, and investigate the extent to which tumor gene expression varies among host populations. We found minimal variation in gene expression of devil lip tissues, either with respect to DFTD infection status or sex. However, 4088 genes were differentially expressed in tumors among our sampling localities. Pathways that were up- or downregulated in DFTD tumors relative to normal tissues exhibited the same patterns of expression with greater intensity in tumors from localities that experienced DFTD for longer. No mRNA sequence variants were associated with expression variation.

CONCLUSIONS

Expression variation among localities may reflect morphological differences in tumors that alter ratios of normal-to-tumor cells within biopsies. Phenotypic variation in tumors may arise from environmental variation or differences in host immune response that were undetectable in lip biopsies, potentially reflecting variation in host-tumor coevolutionary relationships among sites that differ in the time since DFTD arrival.

A transmissible cancer shifts from emergence to endemism in Tasmanian devils

Emerging infectious diseases pose one of the greatest threats to human health and biodiversity. Phylodynamics is often used to infer epidemiological parameters essential for guiding intervention strategies for human viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2). Here, we applied phylodynamics to elucidate the epidemiological dynamics of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a fatal, transmissible cancer with a genome thousands of times larger than that of any virus. Despite prior predictions of devil extinction, transmission rates have declined precipitously from ~3.5 secondary infections per infected individual to ~1 at present. Thus, DFTD appears to be transitioning from emergence to endemism, lending hope for the continued survival of the endangered Tasmanian devil. More generally, our study demonstrates a new phylodynamic analytical framework that can be applied to virtually any pathogen.

Infectious disease and sickness behaviour: tumour progression affects interaction patterns and social network structure in wild Tasmanian devils

Infectious diseases, including transmissible cancers, can have a broad range of impacts on host behaviour, particularly in the latter stages of disease progression. However, the difficulty of early diagnoses makes the study of behavioural influences of disease in wild animals a challenging task. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are affected by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), in which tumours are externally visible as they progress. Using telemetry and mark-recapture datasets, we quantify the impacts of cancer progression on the behaviour of wild devils by assessing how interaction patterns within the social network of a population change with increasing tumour load. The progression of DFTD negatively influences devils' likelihood of interaction within their network. Infected devils were more active within their network late in the mating season, a pattern with repercussions for DFTD transmission. Our study provides a rare opportunity to quantify and understand the behavioural feedbacks of disease in wildlife and how they may affect transmission and population dynamics in general.

Emerging infectious disease and the challenges of social distancing in human and non-human animals

The 'social distancing' that occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in humans provides a powerful illustration of the intimate relationship between infectious disease and social behaviour in animals. Indeed, directly transmitted pathogens have long been considered a major cost of group living in humans and other social animals, as well as a driver of the evolution of group size and social behaviour. As the risk and frequency of emerging infectious diseases rise, the ability of social taxa to respond appropriately to changing infectious disease pressures could mean the difference between persistence and extinction. Here, we examine changes in the social behaviour of humans and wildlife in response to infectious diseases and compare these responses to theoretical expectations. We consider constraints on altering social behaviour in the face of emerging diseases, including the lack of behavioural plasticity, environmental limitations and conflicting pressures from the many benefits of group living. We also explore the ways that social animals can minimize the costs of disease-induced changes to sociality and the unique advantages that humans may have in maintaining the benefits of sociality despite social distancing.

The ecology and evolution of wildlife cancers: Applications for management and conservation

Ecological and evolutionary concepts have been widely adopted to understand host-pathogen dynamics, and more recently, integrated into wildlife disease management. Cancer is a ubiquitous disease that affects most metazoan species; however, the role of oncogenic phenomena in eco-evolutionary processes and its implications for wildlife management and conservation remains undeveloped. Despite the pervasive nature of cancer across taxa, our ability to detect its occurrence, progression and prevalence in wildlife populations is constrained due to logistic and diagnostic limitations, which suggests that most cancers in the wild are unreported and understudied. Nevertheless, an increasing number of virus-associated and directly transmissible cancers in terrestrial and aquatic environments have been detected. Furthermore, anthropogenic activities and sudden environmental changes are increasingly associated with cancer incidence in wildlife. This highlights the need to upscale surveillance efforts, collection of critical data and developing novel approaches for studying the emergence and evolution of cancers in the wild. Here, we discuss the relevance of malignant cells as important agents of selection and offer a holistic framework to understand the interplay of ecological, epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of cancer in wildlife. We use a directly transmissible cancer (devil facial tumour disease) as a model system to reveal the potential evolutionary dynamics and broader ecological effects of cancer epidemics in wildlife. We provide further examples of tumour-host interactions and trade-offs that may lead to changes in life histories, and epidemiological and population dynamics. Within this framework, we explore immunological strategies at the individual level as well as transgenerational adaptations at the population level. Then, we highlight the need to integrate multiple disciplines to undertake comparative cancer research at the human-domestic-wildlife interface and their environments. Finally, we suggest strategies for screening cancer incidence in wildlife and discuss how to integrate ecological and evolutionary concepts in the management of current and future cancer epizootics.

A Devil of a Transmissible Cancer

Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) encompasses two independent transmissible cancers that have killed the majority of Tasmanian devils. The cancer cells are derived from Schwann cells and are spread between devils during biting, a common behavior during the mating season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines a parasite as "An organism that lives on or in a host organism and gets its food from, or at, the expense of its host." Most cancers, including DFTD, live within a host organism and derive resources from its host, and consequently have parasitic-like features. Devil facial tumor disease is a transmissible cancer and, therefore, DFTD shares one additional feature common to most parasites. Through direct contact between devils, DFTD has spread throughout the devil population. However, unlike many parasites, the DFTD cancer cells have a simple lifecycle and do not have either independent, vector-borne, or quiescent phases. To facilitate a description of devil facial tumor disease, this review uses life cycles of parasites as an analogy.

Changes in spatial organization following an acute epizootic: Tasmanian devils and their transmissible cancer

Epidemiological studies commonly monitor host population density but rarely account for how transmission dynamics might be influenced by changes in spatial and social organization that arise from high mortality altering population demography. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), a novel transmissible cancer, caused almost 100% mortality of its single host, the Tasmanian devil, and a >90% local population decline since its emergence 20 years ago. We compare size and overlap in home ranges in a devil population before and 15 years after disease outbreak. We used location data collected with VHF tracking collars in 2001 and GPS collars in the same area in 2015 and 2016. Density of adult devils, calculated from live trapping data in the same years, show a strong decrease following the disease outbreak. The decline in density was accompanied by a reduction in female home range size, a trend not observed for males. Both spatially explicit population modelling and animal tracking showed a decrease in female home range overlap following the DFTD outbreak. These changes in spatial organisation of the host population have the potential to alter the local transmission dynamic of the tumours. Our results are consistent with the general theory of sex-biased spatial organization mediated by resource availability and highlight the importance of incorporating spatial ecology into epidemiological studies.

The evolution of resistance and tolerance as cancer defences

Although there is a plethora of cancer associated-factors that can ultimately culminate in death (cachexia, organ impairment, metastases, opportunistic infections, etc.), the focal element of every terminal malignancy is the failure of our natural defences to control unlimited cell proliferation. The reasons why our defences apparently lack efficiency is a complex question, potentially indicating that, under Darwinian terms, solutions other than preventing cancer progression are also important contributors. In analogy with host-parasite systems, we propose to call this latter option ‘tolerance’ to cancer. Here, we argue that the ubiquity of oncogenic processes among metazoans is at least partially attributable to both the limitations of resistance mechanisms and to the evolution of tolerance to cancer. Deciphering the ecological contexts of alternative responses to the cancer burden is not a semantic question, but rather a focal point in understanding the evolutionary ecology of host-tumour relationships, the evolution of our defences, as well as why and when certain cancers are likely to be detrimental for survival.

Tracing the rise of malignant cell lines: Distribution, epidemiology and evolutionary interactions of two transmissible cancers in Tasmanian devils

Emerging infectious diseases are rising globally and understanding host-pathogen interactions during the initial stages of disease emergence is essential for assessing potential evolutionary dynamics and designing novel management strategies. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are endangered due to a transmissible cancer-devil facial tumour disease (DFTD)-that since its emergence in the 1990s, has affected most populations throughout Tasmania. Recent studies suggest that devils are adapting to the DFTD epidemic and that disease-induced extinction is unlikely. However, in 2014, a second and independently evolved transmissible cancer-devil facial tumour 2 (DFT2)-was discovered at the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula, in south-east Tasmania, suggesting that the species is prone to transmissible cancers. To date, there is little information about the distribution, epidemiology and effects of DFT2 and its interaction with DFTD. Here, we use data from monitoring surveys and roadkills found within and adjacent to the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula to determine the distribution of both cancers and to compare their epidemiological patterns. Since 2012, a total of 51 DFTD tumours have been confirmed among 26 individuals inside the peninsula and its surroundings, while 40 DFT2 tumours have been confirmed among 23 individuals, and two individuals co-infected with both tumours. All devils with DFT2 were found within the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula, suggesting that this new transmissible cancer is geographically confined to this area. We found significant differences in tumour bodily location in DFTD and DFT2, with non-facial tumours more commonly found in DFT2. There was a significant sex bias in DFT2, with most cases reported in males, suggesting that since DFT2 originated from a male host, females might be less susceptible to this cancer. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary interactions of these two contemporary transmissible cancers and evaluating the effectiveness of potential management strategies.

Host genetic diversity limits parasite success beyond agricultural systems: a meta-analysis

There is evidence that human activities are reducing the population genetic diversity of species worldwide. Given the prediction that parasites better exploit genetically homogeneous host populations, many species could be vulnerable to disease outbreaks. While agricultural studies have shown the devastating effects of infectious disease in crop monocultures, the widespread nature of this diversity-disease relationship remains unclear in natural systems. Here, we provide broad support that high population genetic diversity can protect against infectious disease by conducting a meta-analysis of 23 studies, with a total of 67 effect sizes. We found that parasite functional group (micro- or macroparasite) affects the presence of the effect and study setting (field or laboratory-based environment) influences the magnitude. Our study also suggests that host genetic diversity is overall a robust defence against infection regardless of host reproduction, parasite host range, parasite diversity, virulence and the method by which parasite success was recorded. Combined, these results highlight the importance of monitoring declines of host population genetic diversity as shifts in parasite distributions could have devastating effects on at-risk populations in nature.

Behavioural ecology and infectious disease: implications for conservation of biodiversity

Behaviour underpins interactions among conspecifics and between species, with consequences for the transmission of disease-causing parasites. Because many parasites lead to declines in population size and increased risk of extinction for threatened species, understanding the link between host behaviour and disease transmission is particularly important for conservation management. Here, we consider the intersection of behaviour, ecology and parasite transmission, broadly encompassing micro- and macroparasites. We focus on behaviours that have direct impacts on transmission, as well as the behaviours that result from infection. Given the important role of parasites in host survival and reproduction, the effects of behaviour on parasitism can scale up to population-level processes, thus affecting species conservation. Understanding how conservation and infectious disease control strategies actually affect transmission potential can therefore often only be understood through a behavioural lens. We highlight how behavioural perspectives of disease ecology apply to conservation by reviewing the different ways that behavioural ecology influences parasite transmission and conservation goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Two Decades of the Impact of Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumor Disease

The Tasmanian devil, a marsupial carnivore, has been restricted to the island state of Tasmania since its extinction on the Australian mainland about 3000 years ago. In the past two decades, this species has experienced severe population decline due to the emergence of devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a transmissible cancer. During these 20 years, scientists have puzzled over the immunological and evolutionary responses by the Tasmanian devil to this transmissible cancer. Targeted strategies in population management and disease control have been developed as well as comparative processes to identify variation in tumor and host genetics. A multi-disciplinary approach with multi-institutional teams has produced considerable advances over the last decade. This has led to a greater understanding of the molecular pathogenesis and genomic classification of this cancer. New and promising developments in the Tasmanian devil's story include evidence that most immunized, and some wild devils, can produce an immune response to DFTD. Furthermore, epidemiology combined with genomic studies suggest a rapid evolution to the disease and that DFTD will become an endemic disease. Since 1998 there have been more than 350 publications, distributed over 37 Web of Science categories. A unique endemic island species has become an international curiosity that is in the spotlight of integrative and comparative biology research.

Rate of intersexual interactions affects injury likelihood in Tasmanian devil contact networks

Identifying the types of contacts that result in disease transmission is important for accurately modeling and predicting transmission dynamics and disease spread in wild populations. We investigated contacts within a population of adult Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) over a 6-month period and tested whether individual-level contact patterns were correlated with accumulation of bite wounds. Bite wounds are important in the spread of devil facial tumor disease, a clonal cancer cell line transmitted through direct inoculation of tumor cells when susceptible and infected individuals bite each other. We used multimodel inference and network autocorrelation models to investigate the effects of individual-level contact patterns, identities of interacting partners, and position within the social network on the propensity to be involved in bite-inducing contacts. We found that males were more likely to receive potentially disease-transmitting bite wounds than females, particularly during the mating season when males spend extended periods mate-guarding females. The number of bite wounds individuals received during the mating season was unrelated to any of the network metrics examined. Our approach illustrates the necessity for understanding which contact types spread disease in different systems to assist the management of this and other infectious wildlife diseases.

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

Conserving adaptive potential: lessons from Tasmanian devils and their transmissible cancer

Maintenance of adaptive genetic variation has long been a goal of management of natural populations, but only recently have genomic tools allowed identification of specific loci associated with fitness-related traits in species of conservation concern. This raises the possibility of managing for genetic variation directly relevant to specific threats, such as those due to climate change or emerging infectious disease. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) face the threat of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), that has decimated wild populations and led to intensive management efforts. Recent discoveries from genomic and modeling studies reveal how natural devil populations are responding to DFTD, and can inform management of both captive and wild devil populations. Notably, recent studies have documented genetic variation for disease-related traits and rapid evolution in response to DFTD, as well as potential mechanisms for disease resistance such as immune response and tumor regression in wild devils. Recent models predict dynamic persistence of devils with or without DFTD under a variety of modeling scenarios, although at much lower population densities than before DFTD emerged, contrary to previous predictions of extinction. As a result, current management that focuses on captive breeding and release for maintaining genome-wide genetic diversity or demographic supplementation of populations could have negative consequences. Translocations of captive devils into wild populations evolving with DFTD can cause outbreeding depression and/or increases in the force of infection and thereby the severity of the epidemic, and we argue that these risks outweigh any benefits of demographic supplementation in wild populations. We also argue that genetic variation at loci associated with DFTD should be monitored in both captive and wild populations, and that as our understanding of DFTD-related genetic variation improves, considering genetic management approaches to target this variation is warranted in developing conservation strategies for Tasmanian devils.

Sex bias in ability to cope with cancer: Tasmanian devils and facial tumour disease

Knowledge of the ecological dynamics between hosts and pathogens during the initial stages of disease emergence is crucial to understanding the potential for evolution of new interspecific interactions. Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations have declined precipitously owing to infection by a transmissible cancer (devil facial tumour disease, DFTD) that emerged approximately 20 years ago. Since the emergence of DFTD, and as the disease spreads across Tasmania, the number of devils has dropped up to 90% across 80% of the species's distributional range. As a result, the disease is expected to act as a strong selective force on hosts to develop mechanisms of tolerance and/or resistance to the infection. We assessed the ability of infected devils to cope with infection, which translates into host tolerance to the cancer, by using the reaction norm of the individual body condition by tumour burden. We found that body condition of infected hosts is negatively affected by cancer progression. Males and females presented significant differences in their tolerance levels to infection, with males suffering declines of up to 25% of their body condition, in contrast to less than 5% in females. Sex-related differences in tolerance to cancer progression may select for changes in life-history strategies of the host and could also alter the selective environment for the tumours.

Slow recovery from a disease epidemic in the spotted hyena, a keystone social carnivore

Predicting the impact of disease epidemics on wildlife populations is one of the twenty-first century's main conservation challenges. The long-term demographic responses of wildlife populations to epidemics and the life history and social traits modulating these responses are generally unknown, particularly for K-selected social species. Here we develop a stage-structured matrix population model to provide a long-term projection of demographic responses by a keystone social predator, the spotted hyena, to a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in the Serengeti ecosystem in 1993/1994 and predict the recovery time for the population following the epidemic. Using two decades of longitudinal data from 625 known hyenas, we demonstrate that although the reduction in population size was moderate, i.e., the population showed high ecological 'resistance' to the novel CDV genotype present, recovery was slow. Interestingly, high-ranking females accelerated the population's recovery, thereby lessening the impact of the epidemic on the population.

Large-effect loci affect survival in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) infected with a transmissible cancer

Identifying the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes is a central goal of modern biology, particularly for disease-related traits. Genome-wide association methods are a classical approach for identifying the genomic basis of variation in disease phenotypes, but such analyses are particularly challenging in natural populations due to sample size difficulties. Extensive mark-recapture data, strong linkage disequilibrium and a lethal transmissible cancer make the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) an ideal model for such an association study. We used a RAD-capture approach to genotype 624 devils at ~16,000 loci and then used association analyses to assess the heritability of three cancer-related phenotypes: infection case-control (where cases were infected devils and controls were devils that were never infected), age of first infection and survival following infection. The SNP array explained much of the phenotypic variance for female survival (>80%) and female case-control (>61%). We found that a few large-effect SNPs explained much of the variance for female survival (~5 SNPs explained >61% of the total variance), whereas more SNPs (~56) of smaller effect explained less of the variance for female case-control (~23% of the total variance). By contrast, these same SNPs did not account for a significant proportion of phenotypic variance in males, suggesting that the genetic bases of these traits and/or selection differ across sexes. Loci involved with cell adhesion and cell-cycle regulation underlay trait variation, suggesting that the devil immune system is rapidly evolving to recognize and potentially suppress cancer growth through these pathways. Overall, our study provided necessary data for genomics-based conservation and management in Tasmanian devils.

Cancer in wildlife: patterns of emergence

Cancer is ubiquitous in wildlife, affecting animals from bivalves to pachyderms and cetaceans. Reports of increasing frequency demonstrate that neoplasia is associated with substantial mortality in wildlife species. Anthropogenic activities and global weather changes are shaping new geographical limitations for many species, and alterations in living niches are associated with visible examples of genetic bottlenecks, toxin exposures, oncogenic pathogens, stress and immunosuppression, which can all contribute to cancers in wild species. Nations that devote resources to monitoring the health of wildlife often do so for human-centric reasons, including for the prediction of the potential for zoonotic disease, shared contaminants, chemicals and medications, and for observing the effect of exposure from crowding and loss of habitat. Given the increasing human footprint on land and in the sea, wildlife conservation should also become a more important motivating factor. Greater attention to the patterns of the emergence of wildlife cancer is imperative because growing numbers of species are existing at the interface between humans and the environment, making wildlife sentinels for both animal and human health. Therefore, monitoring wildlife cancers could offer interesting and novel insights into potentially unique non-age-related mechanisms of carcinogenesis across species.

Robustness of Eco-Epidemiological Capture-Recapture Parameter Estimates to Variation in Infection State Uncertainty

Estimating eco-epidemiological parameters in free-ranging populations can be challenging. As known individuals may be undetected during a field session, or their health status uncertain, the collected data are typically "imperfect". Multi-event capture-mark-recapture (MECMR) models constitute a substantial methodological advance by accounting for such imperfect data. In these models, animals can be "undetected" or "detected" at each time step. Detected animals can be assigned an infection state, such as "susceptible" (S), "infected" (I), or "recovered" (R), or an "unknown" (U) state, when for instance no biological sample could be collected. There may be heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states, depending on the manifestation of the disease in the host or the diagnostic method. For example, if obtaining the samples needed to prove viral infection in a detected animal is difficult, this can result in a low chance of assigning the I state. Currently, it is unknown how much uncertainty MECMR models can tolerate to provide reliable estimates of eco-epidemiological parameters and whether these parameters are sensitive to heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states. We used simulations to assess how estimates of the survival probability of individuals in different infection states and the probabilities of infection and recovery responded to (1) increasing infection state uncertainty (i.e., the proportion of U) from 20 to 90%, and (2) heterogeneity in the probability of assigning infection states. We simulated data, mimicking a highly virulent disease, and used SIR-MECMR models to quantify bias and precision. For most parameter estimates, bias increased and precision decreased gradually with state uncertainty. The probabilities of survival of I and R individuals and of detection of R individuals were very robust to increasing state uncertainty. In contrast, the probabilities of survival and detection of S individuals, and the infection and recovery probabilities showed high biases and low precisions when state uncertainty was >50%, particularly when the assignment of the S state was reduced. Considering this specific disease scenario, SIR-MECMR models are globally robust to state uncertainty and heterogeneity in state assignment, but the previously mentioned parameter estimates should be carefully interpreted if the proportion of U is high.

Cancer- and behavior-related genes are targeted by selection in the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii)

Devil Facial Tumor Disease (DFTD) is an aggressive cancer notorious for its rare etiology and its impact on Tasmanian devil populations. Two regions underlying an evolutionary response to this cancer were recently identified using genomic time-series pre- and post-DTFD arrival. Here, we support that DFTD shaped the genome of the Tasmanian devil in an even more extensive way than previously reported. We detected 97 signatures of selection, including 148 protein coding genes having a human orthologue, linked to DFTD. Most candidate genes are associated with cancer progression, and an important subset of candidate genes has additional influence on social behavior. This confirms the influence of cancer on the ecology and evolution of the Tasmanian devil. Our work also demonstrates the possibility to detect highly polygenic footprints of short-term selection in very small populations.

Density trends and demographic signals uncover the long-term impact of transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils

1. Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8-10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.