1
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Setash CM, Behney AC, Gammonley JH, Koons DN. Riding the wetland wave: Can ducks locate macroinvertebrate resources across the breeding season? Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11568. [PMID: 38932948 PMCID: PMC11199343 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 05/30/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Food availability varies considerably over space and time in wetland systems, and consumers must be able to track those changes during energetically-demanding points in the life cycle like breeding. Resource tracking has been studied frequently among herbivores, but receives less attention among consumers of macroinvertebrates. We evaluated the change in resource availability across habitat types and time and the simultaneous density of waterfowl consumers throughout their breeding season in a high-elevation, flood-irrigated system. We also assessed whether the macroinvertebrate resource density better predicted waterfowl density across habitats, compared to consistency (i.e., temporal evenness) of the invertebrate resource or taxonomic richness. Resource density varied marginally across wetland types but was highest in basin wetlands (i.e., ponds) and peaked early in the breeding season, whereas it remained relatively low and stable in other wetland habitats. Breeding duck density was positively related to resource density, more so than temporal resource stability, for all species. Resource density was negatively related to duckling density, however. These results have the potential to not only elucidate mechanisms of habitat selection among breeding ducks in flood-irrigated landscapes but also suggest there is not a consequential trade-off to selecting wetland sites based on energy density versus temporal resource stability and that good-quality wetland sites provide both.
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Affiliation(s)
- Casey M. Setash
- Colorado Parks and WildlifeFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | | | | | - David N. Koons
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
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2
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Laczi M, Sarkadi F, Herényi M, Nagy G, Hegyi G, Jablonszky M, Könczey R, Krenhardt K, Markó G, Rosivall B, Szász E, Szöllősi E, Tóth L, Zsebők S, Török J. Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 926:171945. [PMID: 38531456 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2024] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024]
Abstract
Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miklós Laczi
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; The Barn Owl Foundation, Temesvári út 8., H-8744 Orosztony, Hungary.
| | - Fanni Sarkadi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Doctoral School of Biology, Institute of Biology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Márton Herényi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Department of Zoology and Ecology, Institute for Wildlife Management and Nature Conservation, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter Károly utca 1, H-2103 Gödöllő, Hungary.
| | - Gergely Nagy
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Gergely Hegyi
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Mónika Jablonszky
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Réka Könczey
- Hungarian Institute for Educational Research and Development, Eszterházy Károly University, Rákóczi út 70, H-1074 Budapest, Hungary
| | - Katalin Krenhardt
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Gábor Markó
- Department of Plant Pathology, Institute of Plant Protection, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ménesi út 44., H-1118 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Balázs Rosivall
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Eszter Szász
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Eszter Szöllősi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - László Tóth
- Institute for Rural Development and Landscape Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Rural Development, Eszterházy Károly University, Mátrai út 36., H-3200 Gyöngyös, Hungary.
| | - Sándor Zsebők
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - János Török
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
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3
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Weir JC, Phillimore AB. Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17294. [PMID: 38738554 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/14/2024]
Abstract
The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie C Weir
- Institute for Ecology and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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4
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Simmonds EG, Adjei KP, Cretois B, Dickel L, González-Gil R, Laverick JH, Mandeville CP, Mandeville EG, Ovaskainen O, Sicacha-Parada J, Skarstein ES, O'Hara B. Recommendations for quantitative uncertainty consideration in ecology and evolution. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:328-337. [PMID: 38030538 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Ecological and evolutionary studies are currently failing to achieve complete and consistent reporting of model-related uncertainty. We identify three key barriers - a focus on parameter-related uncertainty, obscure uncertainty metrics, and limited recognition of uncertainty propagation - which have led to gaps in uncertainty consideration. However, these gaps can be closed. We propose that uncertainty reporting in ecology and evolution can be improved through wider application of existing statistical solutions and by adopting good practice from other scientific fields. Our recommendations include greater consideration of input data and model structure uncertainties, field-specific uncertainty standards for methods and reporting, and increased uncertainty propagation through the use of hierarchical models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily G Simmonds
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Institute for Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
| | - Kwaku P Adjei
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7034, Norway
| | - Benjamin Cretois
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Torgarden, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7485, Norway
| | - Lisa Dickel
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Institute for Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway
| | - Ricardo González-Gil
- Observatorio Marino de Asturias (OMA), Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, University of Oviedo, 33071 Oviedo, Spain; GOAL, Colonia Castaño Sur, Casa 1901, Calle Paseo Virgilio Zelaya Rubí, Tegucigalpa, Honduras, CA, USA
| | - Jack H Laverick
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
| | - Caitlin P Mandeville
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Department of Natural History, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway
| | | | - Otso Ovaskainen
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki 00014, Finland; Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä 40014, Finland
| | - Jorge Sicacha-Parada
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7034, Norway
| | - Emma S Skarstein
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7034, Norway
| | - Bob O'Hara
- The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7034, Norway
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5
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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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6
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Taff CC, Shipley JR. Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7400. [PMID: 37973809 PMCID: PMC10654519 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43071-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
As the climate has warmed, many birds have advanced their breeding timing. However, as climate change also changes temperature distributions, breeding earlier might increase nestling exposure to either extreme heat or cold. Here, we combine >300,000 breeding records from 24 North American birds with historical temperature data to understand how exposure to extreme temperatures has changed. Average spring temperature increased since 1950 but change in timing of extremes was inconsistent in direction and magnitude; thus, populations could not track both average and extreme temperatures. Relative fitness was reduced following heatwaves and cold snaps in 11 and 16 of 24 species, respectively. Latitudinal variation in sensitivity in three widespread species suggests that vulnerability to extremes at range limits may contribute to range shifts. Our results add to evidence demonstrating that understanding individual sensitivity and its links to population level processes is critical for predicting vulnerability to changing climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Conor C Taff
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University and Biology Department, Colby College, Waterville, ME, 04901, USA.
| | - J Ryan Shipley
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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7
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Lamers KP, Nilsson JÅ, Nicolaus M, Both C. Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1869-1877. [PMID: 37710043 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02191-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Accepted: 08/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Koosje P Lamers
- Conservation Ecology Group, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Jan-Åke Nilsson
- Department of Biology, Evolutionary Ecology Lab, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Marion Nicolaus
- Conservation Ecology Group, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Christiaan Both
- Conservation Ecology Group, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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8
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Milles A, Banitz T, Bielcik M, Frank K, Gallagher CA, Jeltsch F, Jepsen JU, Oro D, Radchuk V, Grimm V. Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:1051-1059. [PMID: 37558537 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.06.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Milles
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Muhlenberg 3, 14476, Potsdam-Golm, Germany; Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Nationalparkamt Hunsrück-Hochwald, Research, Biotope- and Wildlife Management, Brückener Straße 24, 55765 Birkenfeld, Germany.
| | - Thomas Banitz
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Milos Bielcik
- Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Biology, Altensteinstr. 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Karin Frank
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; University of Osnabrück, Institute for Environmental Systems Research, Barbarastr. 12, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstr. 4, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Cara A Gallagher
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Muhlenberg 3, 14476, Potsdam-Golm, Germany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Muhlenberg 3, 14476, Potsdam-Golm, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Jane Uhd Jepsen
- Department of Arctic Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Centre, Hjalmar Johansens gt.14, 9007 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Daniel Oro
- Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CEAB - CSIC), Acces Cala Sant Francesc 14, 17300 Blanes, Girona, Spain.
| | - Viktoriia Radchuk
- Ecological Dynamics Department, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Volker Grimm
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Muhlenberg 3, 14476, Potsdam-Golm, Germany; Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstr. 4, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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9
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Musgrove J, Gilbert F. Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly. Oecologia 2023; 203:1-11. [PMID: 37733112 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05449-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie Musgrove
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Avenue Docteur Penfield, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada.
| | - Francis Gilbert
- School of Life Sciences, University Park, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, England
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10
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Pigot AL, Merow C, Wilson A, Trisos CH. Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1060-1071. [PMID: 37202503 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02070-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Cory Merow
- Eversource Energy Center and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Adam Wilson
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
| | - Christopher H Trisos
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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11
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Lindner M, Ramakers JJ, Verhagen I, Tomotani BM, Mateman AC, Gienapp P, Visser ME. Genotypes selected for early and late avian lay date differ in their phenotype, but not fitness, in the wild. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eade6350. [PMID: 37285433 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ade6350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Global warming has shifted phenological traits in many species, but whether species are able to track further increasing temperatures depends on the fitness consequences of additional shifts in phenological traits. To test this, we measured phenology and fitness of great tits (Parus major) with genotypes for extremely early and late egg lay dates, obtained from a genomic selection experiment. Females with early genotypes advanced lay dates relative to females with late genotypes, but not relative to nonselected females. Females with early and late genotypes did not differ in the number of fledglings produced, in line with the weak effect of lay date on the number of fledglings produced by nonselected females in the years of the experiment. Our study is the first application of genomic selection in the wild and led to an asymmetric phenotypic response that indicates the presence of constraints toward early, but not late, lay dates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Lindner
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Jip Jc Ramakers
- Mathematical and Statistical Methods-Biometris, Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Irene Verhagen
- Wageningen University & Research (WUR) Library, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Barbara M Tomotani
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - A Christa Mateman
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
| | | | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
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12
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Sandvig EM, Quilodrán CS, Altamirano TA, Aguirre F, Barroso O, Rivero de Aguilar J, Schaub M, Kéry M, Vásquez RA, Rozzi R. Survival rates in the world's southernmost forest bird community. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10143. [PMID: 37351480 PMCID: PMC10282503 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Revised: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The Magellanic sub-Antarctic Forest is home to the world's southernmost avian community and is the only Southern Hemisphere analogue to Northern Hemisphere temperate forests at this latitude. This region is considered among the few remaining pristine areas of the world, and shifts in environmental conditions are predominantly driven by climate variability. Thus, understanding climate-driven demographic processes is critical for addressing conservation issues in this system under future climate change scenarios. Here, we describe annual survival patterns and their association with climate variables using a 20-year mark-recapture data set of five forest bird species in the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve. We develop a multispecies hierarchical survival model to jointly explore age-dependent survival probabilities at the community and species levels in a group of five forest passerines. At the community level, we assess the association of migratory behavior and body size with survival, and at the species level, we investigate the influence of local and regional climatic variables on temporal variations of survival. We found a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on juvenile survival in the white-crested Elaenia and a consistent but uncertain negative effect of temperature on survival in juveniles and 80% of adults. We found only a weak association of climate variables with survival across species in the community and no temporal trends in survival for any of the species in either age class, highlighting apparent stability in these high austral latitude forests. Finally, our findings provide an important resource of survival probabilities, a necessary input for assessing potential impacts of global climate change in this unique region of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik M. Sandvig
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Centro Bahía Lomas, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Santo TomásSantiagoChile
- Swiss Ornithological Institute (Vogelwarte)SempachSwitzerland
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB)Universidad de ChileSantiagoChile
| | - Claudio S. Quilodrán
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Department of Genetics and EvolutionUniversity of GenevaGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Tomás A. Altamirano
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Audubon Americas, National Audubon SocietySantiagoChile
- Center for Local Development (CEDEL), Villarrica CampusPontificia Universidad Católica de ChileVillarricaChile
| | - Francisco Aguirre
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Centro de Investigación Gaia Antártica (CIGA)Universidad de MagallanesPunta ArenasChile
| | - Omar Barroso
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
| | | | - Michael Schaub
- Swiss Ornithological Institute (Vogelwarte)SempachSwitzerland
| | - Marc Kéry
- Swiss Ornithological Institute (Vogelwarte)SempachSwitzerland
| | - Rodrigo A. Vásquez
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB)Universidad de ChileSantiagoChile
| | - Ricardo Rozzi
- Cape Horn International CenterUniversidad de MagallanesPuerto WilliamsChile
- Sub‐Antarctic Biocultural Conservation Program, Department of Philosophy and Religion and Department of Biological ScienciesUniversity of North TexasDentonTexasUSA
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of North TexasDentonTexasUSA
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13
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Gilbert NA, McGinn KA, Nunes LA, Shipley AA, Bernath-Plaisted J, Clare JDJ, Murphy PW, Keyser SR, Thompson KL, Maresh Nelson SB, Cohen JM, Widick IV, Bartel SL, Orrock JL, Zuckerberg B. Daily activity timing in the Anthropocene. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:324-336. [PMID: 36402653 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.10.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 10/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Animals are facing novel 'timescapes' in which the stimuli entraining their daily activity patterns no longer match historical conditions due to anthropogenic disturbance. However, the ecological effects (e.g., altered physiology, species interactions) of novel activity timing are virtually unknown. We reviewed 1328 studies and found relatively few focusing on anthropogenic effects on activity timing. We suggest three hypotheses to stimulate future research: (i) activity-timing mismatches determine ecological effects, (ii) duration and timing of timescape modification influence effects, and (iii) consequences of altered activity timing vary biogeographically due to broad-scale variation in factors compressing timescapes. The continued growth of sampling technologies promises to facilitate the study of the consequences of altered activity timing, with emerging applications for biodiversity conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neil A Gilbert
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Kate A McGinn
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Laura A Nunes
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Amy A Shipley
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA; School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA
| | - Jacy Bernath-Plaisted
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - John D J Clare
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA; Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Penelope W Murphy
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Spencer R Keyser
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Kimberly L Thompson
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), 04103 Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany
| | - Scott B Maresh Nelson
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Jeremy M Cohen
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
| | - Ivy V Widick
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Savannah L Bartel
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - John L Orrock
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Benjamin Zuckerberg
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
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14
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Kharouba HM, Wolkovich EM. Lack of evidence for the match-mismatch hypothesis across terrestrial trophic interactions. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:955-964. [PMID: 36888547 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 01/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has led to widespread shifts in the timing of key life history events between interacting species (phenological asynchrony) with hypothesized cascading negative fitness impacts on one or more of the interacting species-often termed 'mismatch'. Yet, predicting the types of systems prone to mismatch remains a major hurdle. Recent reviews have argued that many studies do not provide strong evidence of the underlying match-mismatch hypothesis, but none have quantitatively analysed support for it. Here, we test the hypothesis by estimating the prevalence of mismatch across antagonistic trophic interactions in terrestrial systems and then examine whether studies that meet the assumptions of the hypothesis are more likely to find a mismatch. Despite a large range of synchrony to asynchrony, we did not find general support for the hypothesis. Our results thus question the general applicability of this hypothesis in terrestrial systems, but they also suggest specific types of data missing to robustly refute it. We highlight the critical need to define resource seasonality and the window of 'match' for the most rigorous tests of the hypothesis. Such efforts are necessary if we want to predict systems where mismatches are likely to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
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15
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Laforge MP, Webber QMR, Vander Wal E. Plasticity and repeatability in spring migration and parturition dates with implications for annual reproductive success. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:1042-1054. [PMID: 36871141 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023]
Abstract
In seasonal environments, animals should be adapted to match important life-history traits to when environmental conditions are optimal. Most animal populations therefore reproduce when resource abundance is highest to increase annual reproductive success. When facing variable, and changing, environments animals can display behavioural plasticity to acclimate to changing conditions. Behaviours can further be repeatable. For example, timing of behaviours and life history traits such as timing of reproduction may indicate phenotypic variation. Such variation may buffer animal populations against the consequences of variation and change. Our goal was to quantify plasticity and repeatability in migration and parturition timing in response to timing of snowmelt and green-up in a migratory herbivore (caribou, Rangifer tarandus, n = 132 ID-years) and their effect on reproductive success. We used behavioural reaction norms to quantify repeatability in timing of migration and timing of parturition in caribou and their plasticity to timing of spring events, while also quantifying phenotypic covariance between behavioural and life-history traits. Timing of migration for individual caribou was positively correlated with timing of snowmelt. The timing of parturition for individual caribou varied as a function of inter-annual variation in timing of snowmelt and green-up. Repeatability for migration timing was moderate, but low for timing of parturition. Plasticity did not affect reproductive success. We also did not detect any evidence of phenotypic covariance among any traits examined-timing of migration was not correlated with timing of parturition, and neither was there a correlation in the plasticity of these traits. Repeatability in migration timing suggests the possibility that the timing of migration in migratory herbivores could evolve if the repeatability detected in this study has a genetic or otherwise heritable basis, but observed plasticity may obviate the need for an evolutionary response. Our results also suggest that observed shifts in caribou parturition timing are due to plasticity as opposed to an evolutionary response to changing conditions. While this provides some evidence that populations may be buffered from the consequences of climate change via plasticity, a lack of repeatability in parturition timing could impede adaptation as warming increases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michel P Laforge
- Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
| | - Quinn M R Webber
- Cognitive and Behavioural Ecology, Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.,Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Eric Vander Wal
- Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.,Cognitive and Behavioural Ecology, Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
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16
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The importance of spatial and temporal structure in determining the interplay between plasticity and evolution. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:221-223. [PMID: 36610919 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.12.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/15/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
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17
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Paniw M, García-Callejas D, Lloret F, Bassar RD, Travis J, Godoy O. Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20221494. [PMID: 36809806 PMCID: PMC9943645 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.1494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/23/2023] Open
Abstract
In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Paniw
- Department of Conservation Biology and Global Change, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville, 41001 Spain.,Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich 8057, Switzerland
| | - David García-Callejas
- Department of Integrative Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville, 41001 Spain.,Instituto Universitario de Investigación Marina (INMAR), Departamento de Biología, Universidad de Cádiz, Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain.,Department Animal Biology, Plant Biology and Ecology, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain
| | - Ronald D Bassar
- Department of Biological Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Joseph Travis
- Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
| | - Oscar Godoy
- Instituto Universitario de Investigación Marina (INMAR), Departamento de Biología, Universidad de Cádiz, Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
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18
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Bates JM, Fidino M, Nowak-Boyd L, Strausberger BM, Schmidt KA, Whelan CJ. Climate change affects bird nesting phenology: Comparing contemporary field and historical museum nesting records. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:263-272. [PMID: 35332554 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Accepted: 02/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Global climate change impacts species and ecosystems in potentially harmful ways. For migratory bird species, earlier spring warm-up could lead to a mismatch between nesting activities and food availability. CO2 provides a useful proxy for temperature and an environmental indicator of climate change when temperature data are not available for an entire time series. Our objectives were to (a) examine nesting phenology over time; (b) determine how nesting phenology relates to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration; and (c) demonstrate the usefulness of historical museum collections combined with modern observations for trend analyses. We assessed changes in nesting dates of 72 bird species in the Upper Midwest of the United States by comparing contemporary lay dates with those obtained from archived, historical museum nest records over a 143-year period (1872-2015). Species-specific changes in lay date per one unit change in the CO2 residual ranged from -0.75 (95% CI: -1.57 to -0.10) to 0.45 (95% CI: -0.29 to 1.43). Overall, lay dates advanced ~10 days over the 143-year period. Resident, short-distance migrants and long-distance migrants lay dates advanced by ~15, 18 and 16 days on average respectively. Twenty-four species (33.3%) significantly advanced, one (1.4%) significantly delayed and we failed to detect an advance or delay in lay date for 47 species (65.3%). Overall mean advance in first lay date (for the species that have significantly advanced laying date) was 25.1 days (min: 10.7, max: 49.9). Our study highlights the scientific importance of both data gathering and archiving through time to understand phenological change. The detailed archived information reported by egg collectors provide the early data of our study. As with studies of egg-shell thinning and pesticide exposure, our use of these data illustrates another scientific utility of egg collections that these pioneer naturalists never imagined. As museums archive historical data, these locations are also ideal candidates to store contemporary field data as it is collected. Together, such information will provide the ability to track, understand and perhaps predict responses to human-driven environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M Bates
- Integrative Research Center, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Mason Fidino
- Urban Wildlife Institute, Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Laurel Nowak-Boyd
- Integrative Research Center, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Bill M Strausberger
- Integrative Research Center, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Kenneth A Schmidt
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA
| | - Christopher J Whelan
- Cancer Physiology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, FL, USA.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
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19
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Park JS, Post E. Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001952. [PMID: 36574457 PMCID: PMC9829184 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 01/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
- John S. Park
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Eric Post
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
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20
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Sheldon BC, Kruuk LEB, Alberts SC. The expanding value of long-term studies of individuals in the wild. Nat Ecol Evol 2022; 6:1799-1801. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01940-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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21
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Heneberg P, Bogusch P. Commonly used triazole fungicides accelerate the metamorphosis of digger wasps (Hymenoptera: Spheciformes). ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:67430-67441. [PMID: 36029446 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22684-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 08/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Azole fungicides have been essential pillars of global food security since the commercialization of triadimefon. However, the potential for fungicides to induce sublethal effects on larval development and emergence from overwintering is underresearched. We hypothesized that contact exposure to field-realistic concentrations of a broad spectrum of triazole fungicides alters the pupation and metamorphosis of crabronid wasps. Therefore, triazole fungicides shape the hymenopteran communities in agrocenoses. We applied field-realistic concentrations of three triazole fungicides, difenoconazole, penconazole, and tebuconazole, to the defecated prepupae of Pemphredon fabricii (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae). We monitored their survival, pupation, and metamorphosis into adults, including the timing of these events. All three tested triazole fungicides altered the time to the metamorphosis into adults of P. fabricii prepupae compared to the vehicle-treated controls. This effect was concentration-independent within the recommended concentration ranges for foliar applications. However, the three triazole fungicides were not associated with any significant declines in overall survival. Thus, the commonly used triazole fungicides affect the synchronization of the metamorphosis into adults with the availability of food and nesting resources of the study species. The study compounds did not affect the survival, which agrees with previous studies of other azole fungicides, which revealed effects on survival only when used in combination with other compounds. Further research should address the multiplicative effects of the triazole fungicides with other agrochemicals on the timing of the metamorphosis of bees and wasps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petr Heneberg
- Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Petr Bogusch
- Faculty of Science, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic
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22
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Pardikes NA, Revilla TA, Lue CH, Thierry M, Souto-Vilarós D, Hrcek J. Effects of phenological mismatch under warming are modified by community context. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4013-4026. [PMID: 35426203 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is altering the relative timing of species interactions by shifting when species first appear in communities and modifying the duration organisms spend in each developmental stage. However, community contexts, such as intraspecific competition and alternative resource species, can prolong shortened windows of availability and may mitigate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and dynamic simulations, we quantified how the effects of phenological shifts in Drosophila-parasitoid interactions differed with concurrent changes in temperature, intraspecific competition, and the presence of alternative host species. Our study confirmed that warming shortens the window of host susceptibility. However, the presence of alternative host species sustained interaction persistence across a broader range of phenological shifts than pairwise interactions by increasing the degree of temporal overlap with suitable development stages between hosts and parasitoids. Irrespective of phenological shifts, parasitism rates declined under warming due to reduced parasitoid performance, which limited the ability of community context to manage temporally mismatched interactions. These results demonstrate that the ongoing decline in insect diversity may exacerbate the effects of phenological shifts in ecological communities under future global warming temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas A Pardikes
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Department of Life and Earth Sciences, Georgia State University-Perimeter College, Clarkston, Georgia, USA
| | - Tomás A Revilla
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Chia-Hua Lue
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Biology Department, Brooklyn College, City University of New York (CUNY), Brooklyn, New York, USA
| | - Melanie Thierry
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Daniel Souto-Vilarós
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Hrcek
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
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23
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Levin SC, Evers S, Potter T, Peña Guerrero M, Childs DZ, Compagnoni A, Knight TM, Salguero‐Gómez R. Rpadrino: an R package to access and use
PADRINO
, an open access database of Integral Projection Models. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sam C. Levin
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig Germany
- Department of Zoology, 11a Mansfield Rd University of Oxford Oxford UK
| | - Sanne Evers
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig Germany
| | - Tomos Potter
- Department of Zoology, 11a Mansfield Rd University of Oxford Oxford UK
- Department of Biological Sciences Florida State University Tallahassee FL USA
| | - Mayra Peña Guerrero
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig Germany
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield UK
| | - Aldo Compagnoni
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig Germany
- Department of Zoology, 11a Mansfield Rd University of Oxford Oxford UK
| | - Tiffany M. Knight
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig Germany
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research‐UFZ, Theodor‐Lieser‐Straße 4, 06120 Halle (Saale) Germany
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24
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Mougi A. Phenological Coadaptation Can Stabilize Predator–Prey Dynamics. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.817339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
In recent years, phenology – the seasonal timing of biological life cycles – has received increasing attention as climate change threatens to shift phenology. Phenology is crucial to the life cycle of organisms and their interactions with intimate partner species; hence, phenology has important fitness consequences suggesting that phenology can change through adaptive processes caused by species interaction. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how phenological adaptation occurs among interacting species and consequently affects ecological population dynamics. In this study, a phenological predator–prey co-adaptation model was evaluated to determine how adaptive phenological changes occur in prey and predator and how phenological coadaptation affects their coexistence. Population fluctuations tend to decrease and become stabilized when adaptation occurs rapidly. Furthermore, when adaptation is slow, predator–prey dynamics can be stabilized or destabilized depending on the initial difference in phenological timing between species. These results suggest that phenology shaped by slow coevolution can shift with changes in activity timing caused by environmental changes and simultaneously alter the stability of predator–prey dynamics. In contrast, phenology caused by rapid adaptation, such as phenotypic plasticity, may be robust to environmental change and maintain the stability of predator–prey dynamics. Understanding the types of adaptative processes that shape species phenologies may be crucial for predicting the ecological effects of climate change.
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25
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Wilde LR, Simmons JE, Swift RJ, Senner NR. Dynamic sensitivity to resource availability influences population responses to mismatches in a shorebird. Ecology 2022; 103:e3743. [PMID: 35524939 PMCID: PMC9539520 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events leading to the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs - i.e., phenological mismatching. Although mismatches often affect individual fitness, they do not invariably scale up to affect populations, making it difficult to assess the risk they pose. Individual variation may contribute to this inconsistency, with changes in resource availability and consumer needs leading mismatches to have different outcomes over time. Nevertheless, most models estimate a consumer's match from a single timepoint, potentially obscuring when mismatches matter to populations. We analyzed how the effects of mismatches varied over time by studying precocial Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks and their invertebrate prey from 2009 to 2019. We developed individual and population level models to determine how age-specific variation affect the relationship between godwits and resource availability. We found that periods with abundant resources led to higher growth and survival of godwit chicks, but also that chick survival was increasingly related to the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, estimates of mismatches using age-structured consumer demand explained more variation in annual godwit fledging rates than more commonly used alternatives. Our study suggests that modeling the effects of mismatches as the disrupted interaction between dynamic consumer needs and resource availability clarifies when mismatches matter to both individuals and populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke R Wilde
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Josiah E Simmons
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Rose J Swift
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Nathan R Senner
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
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26
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Hadfield JD, Reed TE. Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity. Evol Lett 2022; 6:178-188. [PMID: 35386830 PMCID: PMC8966488 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Revised: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long‐standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non‐intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod D. Hadfield
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JT UK
| | - Thomas E. Reed
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University College Cork, Distillery Fields North Mall Cork T23 N73K Ireland
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27
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Visser ME, Lindner M, Gienapp P, Long MC, Jenouvrier S. Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major). Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211337. [PMID: 34814747 PMCID: PMC8611334 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Melanie Lindner
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Chronobiology Unit, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Phillip Gienapp
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Michael-Otto-Institut im NABU, Research and Education Centre for Avian and Wetland Conservation, Goosstroot 1, 24861 Bergenhusen, Germany
| | - Matthew C Long
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
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28
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Schultz EL, Hülsmann L, Pillet MD, Hartig F, Breshears DD, Record S, Shaw JD, DeRose RJ, Zuidema PA, Evans MEK. Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions. Ecol Lett 2021; 25:38-51. [PMID: 34708503 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2021] [Revised: 08/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily L Schultz
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Lisa Hülsmann
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Michiel D Pillet
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - David D Breshears
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Sydne Record
- Department of Biology, Bryn Mawr College, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - John D Shaw
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Ogden, Utah, USA
| | - R Justin DeRose
- Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Pieter A Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Margaret E K Evans
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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29
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Yang LH, Postema EG, Hayes TE, Lippey MK, MacArthur-Waltz DJ. The complexity of global change and its effects on insects. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2021; 47:90-102. [PMID: 34004376 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2021.05.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2021] [Revised: 05/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Global change includes multiple overlapping and interacting drivers: 1) climate change, 2) land use change, 3) novel chemicals, and 4) the increased global transport of organisms. Recent studies have documented the complex and counterintuitive effects of these drivers on the behavior, life histories, distributions, and abundances of insects. This complexity arises from the indeterminacy of indirect, non-additive and combined effects. While there is wide consensus that global change is reorganizing communities, the available data are limited. As the pace of anthropogenic changes outstrips our ability to document its impacts, ongoing change may lead to increasingly unpredictable outcomes. This complexity and uncertainty argue for renewed efforts to address the fundamental drivers of global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louie H Yang
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
| | - Elizabeth G Postema
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA; Animal Behavior Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Tracie E Hayes
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA; Population Biology Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Mia K Lippey
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA; Entomology Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Dylan J MacArthur-Waltz
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA; Population Biology Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
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30
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Coulson T, Potter T, Felmy A. Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models. Evol Appl 2021; 14:2490-2501. [PMID: 34745339 PMCID: PMC8549625 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Revised: 06/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi-generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Coulson
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Tomos Potter
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Anja Felmy
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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31
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Twining CW, Parmar TP, Mathieu-Resuge M, Kainz MJ, Shipley JR, Martin-Creuzburg D. Use of Fatty Acids From Aquatic Prey Varies With Foraging Strategy. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.735350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Across ecosystems, resources vary in their nutritional composition and thus their dietary value to consumers. Animals can either access organic compounds, such as fatty acids, directly from diet or through internal biosynthesis, and the extent to which they use these two alternatives likely varies based on the availability of such compounds across the nutritional landscape. Cross-ecosystem subsidies of important dietary nutrients, like omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFA), may provide consumers with the opportunity to relax the demands of synthesis and rely upon dietary flexibility rather than internal metabolic processes. Here, we examined how dietary flexibility and distance from a lake influenced the degree to which generalist insectivores relied upon dietary n-3 LC-PUFA from emergent aquatic insects versus n-3 LC-PUFA synthesized from precursor compounds found in terrestrial insects. We used bulk and compound-specific stable isotope analyses to understand spider and insectivorous bird (Blue Tit; Cyanistes caeruleus) reliance on aquatic and terrestrial resources, including dietary PUFA sources, along a riparian to upland gradient from a lake. We simultaneously investigated n-3 LC-PUFA synthesis ability in nestlings using 13C fatty acid labeling. We found that riparian spiders took advantage of emergent aquatic insect subsidies, deriving their overall diet and their n-3 PUFA from aquatic resources whereas nestling birds at all distances and upland spiders relied upon terrestrial resources, including PUFA. Our 13C labeling experiment demonstrated that nestling tits were able to synthesize the n-3 LC-PUFA docosahexaenoic acid from the dietary precursor α-linolenic acid, suggesting that they are not limited by aquatic resources to satisfy their LC-PUFA requirements. Overall, this study suggests that habitat generalist insectivores vary in the degree to which they can shift diet to take advantage of high-quality aquatic resources depending upon both their foraging flexibility and internal synthesis capacity.
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32
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Bell DA, Kovach RP, Robinson ZL, Whiteley AR, Reed TE. The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1505-1521. [PMID: 33931936 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2020] [Revised: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Donovan A Bell
- Wildlife Biology Program, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | | | - Zachary L Robinson
- Wildlife Biology Program, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Andrew R Whiteley
- Wildlife Biology Program, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Thomas E Reed
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.,Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Lee Road, Cork, Ireland
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33
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Bassar RD, Coulson T, Travis J, Reznick DN. Towards a more precise - and accurate - view of eco-evolution. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:623-625. [PMID: 33617684 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Over the past 15 years, the number of papers focused on 'eco-evo dynamics' has increased exponentially (Figure 1). This pattern suggests the rapid growth of a new, integrative discipline. We argue this overstates the case. First, the terms 'eco-evo dynamics' and 'eco-evo interactions' are used too imprecisely. As a result, many studies that claim to describe eco-evo dynamics are actually describing basic ecological or evolutionary processes. Second, these terms are often used as if the study of how ecological and evolutionary processes are intertwined is novel when, in fact, it is not. The result is confusion over what the term 'eco-evolution' and its derivatives describe. We advocate a more precise definition of eco-evolution that is more useful in efforts to understand and characterise the diversity of ecological and evolutionary processes and that focuses attention on the subset of those processes that occur only when ecological and evolutionary timescales are comparable. [Figure: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Joseph Travis
- Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - David N Reznick
- Department of Biology, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA
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34
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Samplonius JM, Atkinson A, Hassall C, Keogan K, Thackeray SJ, Assmann JJ, Burgess MD, Johansson J, Macphie KH, Pearce-Higgins JW, Simmonds EG, Varpe Ø, Weir JC, Childs DZ, Cole EF, Daunt F, Hart T, Lewis OT, Pettorelli N, Sheldon BC, Phillimore AB. Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 5:155-164. [PMID: 33318690 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01357-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jelmer M Samplonius
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
| | | | - Christopher Hassall
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Katharine Keogan
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.,Marine Scotland Science, Marine Laboratory, Aberdeen, UK
| | | | | | - Malcolm D Burgess
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Sandy, UK.,Centre for Research in Animal Behaviour, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Kirsty H Macphie
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - James W Pearce-Higgins
- British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, UK.,Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Emily G Simmonds
- Department of Mathematical Sciences and Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Øystein Varpe
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.,Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jamie C Weir
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Ella F Cole
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Tom Hart
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Owen T Lewis
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Ben C Sheldon
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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