1
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Zettlemoyer MA, Conner RJ, Seaver MM, Waddle E, DeMarche ML. A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success. Am Nat 2024; 203:E157-E174. [PMID: 38635358 DOI: 10.1086/729438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.
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2
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Sauve D, Charmantier A, Hatch SA, Friesen VL. The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird. Evol Lett 2024; 8:56-63. [PMID: 38370550 PMCID: PMC10871900 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Drew Sauve
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Scott A Hatch
- Institute for Seabird Research and Conservation, Anchorage, AK, United States
| | - Vicki L Friesen
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
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3
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Murray M, Wright J, Araya-Ajoy YG. Evolutionary rescue from climate change: male indirect genetic effects on lay-dates and their consequences for population persistence. Evol Lett 2024; 8:137-148. [PMID: 38487362 PMCID: PMC10939382 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2022] [Revised: 04/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Changes in avian breeding phenology are among the most apparent responses to climate change in free-ranging populations. A key question is whether populations will be able to keep up with the expected rates of environmental change. There is a large body of research on the mechanisms by which avian lay-dates track temperature change and the consequences of (mal)adaptation on population persistence. Often overlooked is the role of males, which can influence the lay-date of their mate through their effect on the prelaying environment. We explore how social plasticity causing male indirect genetic effects can help or hinder population persistence when female genes underpinning lay-date and male genes influencing female's timing of reproduction both respond to climate-mediated selection. We extend quantitative genetic moving optimum models to predict the consequences of social plasticity on the maximum sustainable rate of temperature change, and evaluate our model using a combination of simulated data and empirical estimates from the literature. Our results suggest that predictions for population persistence may be biased if indirect genetic effects and cross-sex genetic correlations are not considered and that the extent of this bias depends on sex differences in how environmental change affects the optimal timing of reproduction. Our model highlights that more empirical work is needed to understand sex-specific effects of environmental change on phenology and the fitness consequences for population dynamics. While we discuss our results exclusively in the context of avian breeding phenology, the approach we take here can be generalized to many different contexts and types of social interaction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Myranda Murray
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jonathan Wright
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Yimen G Araya-Ajoy
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
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4
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Rutschmann A, Santure AW, Brekke P, Ewen JG, Shanahan D, de Villemereuil P. Variation in shape and consistency of selection between populations of the threatened Hihi (Notiomystis cincta). J Evol Biol 2022; 35:1378-1386. [PMID: 36117411 DOI: 10.1111/jeb.14088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2021] [Revised: 07/08/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The shape and intensity of natural selection can vary between years, potentially resulting in a chronic reduction of fitness as individuals need to track a continually changing optimum of fitness (i.e., a "lag load"). In endangered species, often characterized by small population size, the lack of genetic diversity is expected to limit the response to this constant need to adjust to fluctuating selection, increasing the fitness burden and thus the risk of extinction. Here, we use long-term monitoring data to assess whether the type of selection for a key fitness trait (i.e., lay date) differs between two reintroduced populations of a threatened passerine bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We apply recent statistical developments to test for the presence or absence of fluctuation in selection in both the Tiritiri Mātangi Island and the Kārori sanctuary populations. Our results support the presence of stabilizing selection in Tiritiri Mātangi with a potential moving optimum for lay date. In Kārori our results favour a regime of directional selection. Although the shape of selection may differ, for both populations an earlier lay date generally increases fitness in both environments. Further, the moving optimum models of lay date on Tiritiri Mātangi, suggesting that selection varies between years, imply a substantial lag load in addition to the fitness burden caused by the population laying too late. Our results highlight the importance of characterizing the form and temporal variation of selection for each population to predict the effects of environmental change and to inform management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexis Rutschmann
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Anna W Santure
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Patricia Brekke
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - John G Ewen
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | | | - Pierre de Villemereuil
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), École Pratique des Hautes Études, PSL, MNHN, CNRS, SU, UA, Paris, France
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5
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Cachelou J, Saint-Andrieux C, Baubet E, Nivois E, Richard E, Gaillard JM, Gamelon M. Does mast seeding shape mating time in wild boar? A comparative study. Biol Lett 2022; 18:20220213. [PMID: 35855608 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction often matches with the peak of food resources. One well-known effect of global warming is an earlier phenology of resources, leading to a possible mismatch between the timing of reproduction for consumers and food peak. However, global warming may also change the dynamics of food resources, such as the intensity and frequency of pulsed mast seeding. How quantitative changes in mast seeding influence the timing of reproduction of seed consumers remains unexplored. Here, we assess how yearly variation in mast seeding influences mating time in wild boar (Sus scrofa), a widespread seed consumer species. We took advantage of the intensive monitoring of both female reproduction (1636 females) and acorn production over 6 consecutive years across 15 populations of wild boar in the wild. We found that mating time occurs earlier when acorn production increases in most but not all populations. In two out of 15 populations, heavy females mated earlier than light ones. Our findings demonstrate that mast seeding advances the mating time in some populations, which could perhaps impact how boars respond to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Cachelou
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France.,Office Français de la Biodiversité, DRAS-Service conservation et gestion des espèces à enjeux, Montfort, Birieux 01330, France.,Fondation François Sommer, Pôle Nature, 3e arrondissement de Paris, 75003 Paris, France
| | - Christine Saint-Andrieux
- Office Français de la Biodiversité, DRAS-Service anthropisation et fonctionnement des écosystèmes terrestres, 8 Chemin de la Sablière, ZA SUD 67560 Rosheim, France
| | - Eric Baubet
- Office Français de la Biodiversité, DRAS-Service conservation et gestion des espèces à enjeux, Montfort, Birieux 01330, France
| | - Eveline Nivois
- Office Français de la Biodiversité, DRAS-Service conservation et gestion des espèces à enjeux, Chemin du Longeau, Rozérieulles 57160, France
| | - Emmanuelle Richard
- Fondation François Sommer, Pôle Nature, 3e arrondissement de Paris, 75003 Paris, France
| | - Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France.,Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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6
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Marrot P, Latutrie M, Piquet J, Pujol B. Natural selection fluctuates at an extremely fine spatial scale inside a wild population of snapdragon plants. Evolution 2022; 76:658-666. [PMID: 34535895 PMCID: PMC9291555 DOI: 10.1111/evo.14359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2020] [Revised: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Spatial variation in natural selection is expected to shape phenotypic variation of wild populations and drive their evolution. Although evidence of phenotypic divergence across populations experiencing different selection regimes is abundant, investigations of intrapopulation variation in selection pressures remain rare. Fine-grained spatial environmental heterogeneity can be expected to influence selective forces within a wild population and thereby alter its fitness function by producing multiple fitness optima at a fine spatial scale. Here, we tested this hypothesis in a wild population of snapdragon plants living on an extremely small island in southern France (about 7500 m2 ). We estimated the spline-based fitness function linking individuals' fitness and five morphological traits in interaction with three spatially variable ecological drivers. We found that selection acting on several traits varied both in magnitude and direction in response to environmental variables at the scale of a meter. Our findings illustrate how different phenotypes can be selected at different locations within a population in response to environmental variation. Investigating spatial variation in selection within a population, in association with ecological conditions, represents an opportunity to identify putative ecological drivers of selection in the wild.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal Marrot
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS, USR 3278 CRIOBEUniversité de PerpignanPerpignan66860France
| | - Mathieu Latutrie
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS, USR 3278 CRIOBEUniversité de PerpignanPerpignan66860France
| | - Jésaëlle Piquet
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS, USR 3278 CRIOBEUniversité de PerpignanPerpignan66860France
| | - Benoit Pujol
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS, USR 3278 CRIOBEUniversité de PerpignanPerpignan66860France
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7
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Hadfield JD, Reed TE. Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity. Evol Lett 2022; 6:178-188. [PMID: 35386830 PMCID: PMC8966488 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Revised: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long‐standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non‐intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod D. Hadfield
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JT UK
| | - Thomas E. Reed
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University College Cork, Distillery Fields North Mall Cork T23 N73K Ireland
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8
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Siepielski AM, Gómez-Llano M, McPeek MA. Environmental Conditions during Development Affect Sexual Selection through Trait-Fitness Relationships. Am Nat 2022; 199:34-50. [DOI: 10.1086/717294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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9
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Chevin L, Gompert Z, Nosil P. Frequency dependence and the predictability of evolution in a changing environment. Evol Lett 2021; 6:21-33. [PMID: 35127135 PMCID: PMC8802243 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2021] [Revised: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Frequency‐dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency‐dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and –2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi‐cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < –2, can produce self‐sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment‐dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Patrik Nosil
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD Montpellier 34090 France
- Department of Biology Utah State University Logan Utah 84322 USA
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10
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Biquet J, Bonamour S, de Villemereuil P, de Franceschi C, Teplitsky C. Phenotypic plasticity drives phenological changes in a Mediterranean blue tit population. J Evol Biol 2021; 35:347-359. [PMID: 34669221 DOI: 10.1111/jeb.13950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Earlier phenology induced by climate change, such as the passerines' breeding time, is observed in many natural populations. Understanding the nature of such changes is key to predict the responses of wild populations to climate change. Genetic changes have been rarely investigated for laying date, though it has been shown to be heritable and under directional selection, suggesting that the trait could evolve. In a Corsican blue tit population, the birds' laying date has significantly advanced over 40 years, and we here determine whether this response is of plastic or evolutionary origin, by comparing the predictions of the breeder's and the Robertson-Price (STS) equations, to the observed genetic changes. We compare the results obtained for two fitness proxies (fledgling and recruitment success), using models accounting for their zero inflation. Because the trait appears heritable and under directional selection, the breeder's equation predicts that genetic changes could drive a significant part of the phenological change observed. We, however, found that fitness proxies and laying date are not genetically correlated. The STS, therefore, predicts no evolution of the breeding time, predicting correctly the absence of trend in breeding values. Our results also emphasize that when investigating selection on a plastic trait under fluctuating selection, part of the fitness-trait phenotypic covariance can be due to within individual covariance. In the case of repeated measurements, splitting within and between individual covariance can shift our perspective on the actual intensity of selection over multiple selection episodes, shedding light on the potential for the trait to evolve.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliette Biquet
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Suzanne Bonamour
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.,Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), Muséum national d'histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Pierre de Villemereuil
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.,Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), École Pratique des Hautes Études, PSL, MNHN, CNRS, SU, UA, Paris, France
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11
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Albertsen E, Opedal ØH, Bolstad GH, Pérez-Barrales R, Hansen TF, Pélabon C, Armbruster WS. Using ecological context to interpret spatiotemporal variation in natural selection. Evolution 2020; 75:294-309. [PMID: 33230820 DOI: 10.1111/evo.14136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2019] [Revised: 09/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Spatiotemporal variation in natural selection is expected, but difficult to estimate. Pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits provides a good system for understanding and linking variation in selection to differences in ecological context. We studied pollinator-mediated selection in five populations of Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) in Costa Rica and Mexico. Using a nonlinear path-analytical approach, we assessed several functional components of selection, and linked variation in pollinator-mediated selection across time and space to variation in pollinator assemblages. After correcting for estimation error, we detected moderate variation in net selection on two out of four blossom traits. Both the opportunity for selection and the mean strength of selection decreased with increasing reliability of cross-pollination. Selection for pollinator attraction was consistently positive and stronger on advertisement than reward traits. Selection on traits affecting pollen transfer from the pollinator to the stigmas was strong only when cross-pollination was unreliable and there was a mismatch between pollinator and blossom size. These results illustrate how consideration of trait function and ecological context can facilitate both the detection and the causal understanding of spatiotemporal variation in natural selection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Albertsen
- Norwegian Institute for Bioeconomy Research, Trondheim, 7031, Norway.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
| | - Øystein H Opedal
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway.,Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, SE-22362, Sweden
| | - Geir H Bolstad
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, 7485, Norway
| | - Rocío Pérez-Barrales
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 2DY, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas F Hansen
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, 0316, Norway
| | - Christophe Pélabon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
| | - W Scott Armbruster
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 2DY, United Kingdom.,Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA
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12
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Nilsson ALK, Skaugen T, Reitan T, L'Abée-Lund JH, Gamelon M, Jerstad K, Røstad OW, Slagsvold T, Stenseth NC, Vøllestad LA, Walseng B. Hydrology influences breeding time in the white-throated dipper. BMC Ecol 2020; 20:70. [PMID: 33334346 PMCID: PMC7745505 DOI: 10.1186/s12898-020-00338-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Accepted: 11/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978-2015) in a natural river system. RESULTS Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period. CONCLUSIONS The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna L K Nilsson
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway.
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Thormøhlens Gate 55, 5006, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Thomas Skaugen
- Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate, P. O. Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301, Oslo, Norway
| | - Trond Reitan
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway
- Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate, P. O. Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jan Henning L'Abée-Lund
- Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate, P. O. Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301, Oslo, Norway
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Kurt Jerstad
- Jerstad Viltforvaltning, Aurebekksveien 61, 4516, Mandal, Norway
| | - Ole Wiggo Røstad
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NMBU, 1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Tore Slagsvold
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Nils C Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - L Asbjørn Vøllestad
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Bjørn Walseng
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadallén 21, 0349, Oslo, Norway
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13
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de Villemereuil P, Charmantier A, Arlt D, Bize P, Brekke P, Brouwer L, Cockburn A, Côté SD, Dobson FS, Evans SR, Festa-Bianchet M, Gamelon M, Hamel S, Hegelbach J, Jerstad K, Kempenaers B, Kruuk LEB, Kumpula J, Kvalnes T, McAdam AG, McFarlane SE, Morrissey MB, Pärt T, Pemberton JM, Qvarnström A, Røstad OW, Schroeder J, Senar JC, Sheldon BC, van de Pol M, Visser ME, Wheelwright NT, Tufto J, Chevin LM. Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:31969-31978. [PMID: 33257553 PMCID: PMC7116484 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009003117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2020] [Accepted: 09/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre de Villemereuil
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, École Pratique des Hautes Études | Paris Science et Lettres, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 34000 Montpellier, France;
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité, École Pratique des Hautes Études | Paris Sciences et Lettres, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Université des Antilles, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Anne Charmantier
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, École Pratique des Hautes Études | Paris Science et Lettres, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 34000 Montpellier, France
| | - Debora Arlt
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 75007 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Pierre Bize
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Patricia Brekke
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, NW1 4RY London, United Kingdom
| | - Lyanne Brouwer
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Animal Ecology and Physiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Andrew Cockburn
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia
| | - Steeve D Côté
- Département de Biologie and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, Québec, G1V 0A6 QC, Canada
| | - F Stephen Dobson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849
| | - Simon R Evans
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn TR10 9FE, United Kingdom
| | - Marco Festa-Bianchet
- Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, J1K 2R1 Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sandra Hamel
- Département de Biologie, Université Laval, Québec, G1V 0A6 QC, Canada
| | - Johann Hegelbach
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Bart Kempenaers
- Department of Behavioural Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
| | - Loeske E B Kruuk
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia
| | - Jouko Kumpula
- Terrestrial Population Dynamics, Natural Resources Institute Finland, FIN-999870, Inari, Finland
| | - Thomas Kvalnes
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Andrew G McAdam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - S Eryn McFarlane
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, United Kingdom
| | - Michael B Morrissey
- School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9TH, United Kingdom
| | - Tomas Pärt
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 75007 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Josephine M Pemberton
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, United Kingdom
| | - Anna Qvarnström
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ole Wiggo Røstad
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway
| | - Julia Schroeder
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, SL5 7PY Ascot, Berks,
| | - Juan Carlos Senar
- Behavioural and Evolutionary Ecology Research Unit, Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona, E-08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ben C Sheldon
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jarle Tufto
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Luis-Miguel Chevin
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, École Pratique des Hautes Études | Paris Science et Lettres, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 34000 Montpellier, France;
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14
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Nilsson ALK, Reitan T, Skaugen T, L’Abée-Lund JH, Gamelon M, Jerstad K, Røstad OW, Slagsvold T, Stenseth NC, Vøllestad LA, Walseng B. Location Is Everything, but Climate Gets a Share: Analyzing Small-Scale Environmental Influences on Breeding Success in the White-Throated Dipper. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.542846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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15
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Cotto O, Chevin LM. Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment. Theor Popul Biol 2020; 134:119-128. [PMID: 32275919 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2020.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2019] [Revised: 03/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Most natural environments vary stochastically and are temporally autocorrelated. Previous theory investigating the effects of environmental autocorrelation on evolution mostly assumed that total fitness resulted from a single selection episode. Yet organisms are likely to experience selection repeatedly along their life, in response to possibly different environmental states. We model the evolution of a quantitative trait in organisms with non-overlapping generations undergoing several episodes of selection in a randomly fluctuating and autocorrelated environment. We show that the evolutionary dynamics depends not directly on fluctuations of the environment, but instead on those of an effective phenotypic optimum that integrates the effects of all selection episodes within each generation. The variance and autocorrelation of the integrated optimum shape the variance and predictability of selection, with substantial qualitative and quantitative deviations from previous predictions considering a single selection episode per generation. We also investigate the consequence of multiple selection episodes per generation on population load. In particular, we identify a new load resulting from within-generation fluctuating selection, generating the death of individuals without significance for the evolutionary dynamics. Our study emphasizes how taking into account fluctuating selection within lifetime unravels new properties of evolutionary dynamics, with crucial implications notably with respect to responses to global changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Cotto
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive Unité Mixte de Recherche 5175, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, École Pratique des Hautes Études, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, Cedex 5, France; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and Department of Biology, Queen's University, Jeffery Hall, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L 3N6.
| | - Luis-Miguel Chevin
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive Unité Mixte de Recherche 5175, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, École Pratique des Hautes Études, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, Cedex 5, France.
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16
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Gauzere J, Teuf B, Davi H, Chevin LM, Caignard T, Leys B, Delzon S, Ronce O, Chuine I. Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology. Evol Lett 2020; 4:109-123. [PMID: 32313687 PMCID: PMC7156102 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julie Gauzere
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE IRD Montpellier France.,Institut des Sciences de l'Évolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD EPHE Montpellier France.,Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JT United Kingdom
| | - Bertrand Teuf
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE IRD Montpellier France
| | | | - Luis-Miguel Chevin
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE IRD Montpellier France
| | | | - Bérangère Leys
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE IRD Montpellier France.,Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté UMR 6249 Chrono-environnement 16 route de Gray, F-25030 Besançon Cedex France
| | | | - Ophélie Ronce
- Institut des Sciences de l'Évolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD EPHE Montpellier France.,CNRS, Biodiversity Research Center University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| | - Isabelle Chuine
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE IRD Montpellier France
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17
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Holand H, Kvalnes T, Røed KH, Holand Ø, Saether BE, Kumpula J. Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate. Evolution 2019; 74:103-115. [PMID: 31808544 DOI: 10.1111/evo.13894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2019] [Accepted: 11/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969-2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Håkon Holand
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Thomas Kvalnes
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, SE-752 36, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Knut H Røed
- Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, NO-0033, Oslo, Norway
| | - Øystein Holand
- Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, NO-1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jouko Kumpula
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Terrestrial Population Dynamics, FIN-999870, Kaamanen, Inari, Finland
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18
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Chevin LM. Selective Sweep at a QTL in a Randomly Fluctuating Environment. Genetics 2019; 213:987-1005. [PMID: 31527049 PMCID: PMC6827380 DOI: 10.1534/genetics.119.302680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2019] [Accepted: 09/16/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Adaptation is mediated by phenotypic traits that are often near continuous, and undergo selective pressures that may change with the environment. The dynamics of allelic frequencies at underlying quantitative trait loci (QTL) depend on their own phenotypic effects, but also possibly on other polymorphic loci affecting the same trait, and on environmental change driving phenotypic selection. Most environments include a substantial component of random noise, characterized both by its magnitude and its temporal autocorrelation, which sets the timescale of environmental predictability. I investigate the dynamics of a mutation affecting a quantitative trait in an autocorrelated stochastic environment that causes random fluctuations of an optimum phenotype. The trait under selection may also exhibit background polygenic variance caused by many polymorphic loci of small effects elsewhere in the genome. In addition, the mutation at the QTL may affect phenotypic plasticity, the phenotypic response of given genotype to its environment of development or expression. Stochastic environmental fluctuations increase the variance of the evolutionary process, with consequences for the probability of a complete sweep at the QTL. Background polygenic variation critically alters this process, by setting an upper limit to stochastic variance of population genetics at the QTL. For a plasticity QTL, stochastic fluctuations also influences the expected selection coefficient, and alleles with the same expected trajectory can have very different stochastic variances. Finally, a mutation may be favored through its effect on plasticity despite causing a systematic mismatch with optimum, which is compensated by evolution of the mean background phenotype.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis-Miguel Chevin
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, University of Montpellier, University of Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, France
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19
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Cao Y, Visser ME, Tufto J. A time‐series model for estimating temporal variation in phenotypic selection on laying dates in a Dutch great tit population. Methods Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yihan Cao
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematical Sciences Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway
| | - Marcel E. Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW) Wageningen Netherlands
| | - Jarle Tufto
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematical Sciences Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway
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20
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King JG, Hadfield JD. The evolution of phenotypic plasticity when environments fluctuate in time and space. Evol Lett 2019; 3:15-27. [PMID: 30788139 PMCID: PMC6369965 DOI: 10.1002/evl3.100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2018] [Accepted: 12/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Most theoretical studies have explored the evolution of plasticity when the environment, and therefore the optimal trait value, varies in time or space. When the environment varies in time and space, we show that genetic adaptation to Markovian temporal fluctuations depends on the between-generation autocorrelation in the environment in exactly the same way that genetic adaptation to spatial fluctuations depends on the probability of philopatry. This is because both measure the correlation in parent-offspring environments and therefore the effectiveness of a genetic response to selection. If the capacity to genetically respond to selection is stronger in one dimension (e.g., space), then plasticity mainly evolves in response to fluctuations in the other dimension (e.g., time). If the relationships between the environments of development and selection are the same in time and space, the evolved plastic response to temporal fluctuations is useful in a spatial context and genetic differentiation in space is reduced. However, if the relationships between the environments of development and selection are different, the optimal level of plasticity is different in the two dimensions. In this case, the plastic response that evolves to cope with temporal fluctuations may actually be maladaptive in space, resulting in the evolution of hyperplasticity or negative plasticity. These effects can be mitigated by spatial genetic differentiation that acts in opposition to plasticity resulting in counter-gradient variation. These results highlight the difficulty of making space-for-time substitutions in empirical work but identify the key parameters that need to be measured in order to test whether space-for-time substitutions are likely to be valid.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica G King
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JT United Kingdom
| | - Jarrod D Hadfield
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JT United Kingdom
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21
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Haaland TR, Wright J, Tufto J, Ratikainen II. Short-term insurance versus long-term bet-hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments. Evolution 2018; 73:145-157. [PMID: 30549260 PMCID: PMC6590291 DOI: 10.1111/evo.13659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2018] [Accepted: 11/19/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Ray Haaland
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jonathan Wright
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jarle Tufto
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Irja Ida Ratikainen
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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