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Zhai M, Bojková J, Němejcová D, Polášek M, Syrovátka V, Horsák M. Climatically promoted taxonomic homogenization of macroinvertebrates in unaffected streams varies along the river continuum. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6292. [PMID: 37072510 PMCID: PMC10113374 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32806-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Biotic homogenization appears to be a global consequence of anthropogenic change. However, the underlying environmental factors contributing to homogenization are difficult to identify because their effects usually interact and confound each other. This can be the reason why there is very little evidence on the role of climate warming in homogenization. By analysing macroinvertebrate assemblages in 65 streams that were as close to natural conditions as possible, we avoided the confounding effects of common anthropogenic stressors. This approach resulted in revealing a significant effect of increased temperature (both summer and winter) on changes in macroinvertebrate compositional over the past two decades. However, homogenization was significant only at opposite ends of the river continuum (submontane brooks, low-altitude rivers). Surprisingly, species of native origin predominated overall, increasing in frequency and abundance ("winners"), while only a minority of species declined or disappeared ("losers"). We hypothesise that undisturbed conditions mitigate species declines and thus homogenization, and that the temperature increase has so far been beneficial to most native species. Although we may have only captured a transitional state due to extinction debt, this underscores the importance of maintaining ecological conditions in stream to prevent species loss due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie Zhai
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Jindřiška Bojková
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Denisa Němejcová
- T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p.r.i., Podbabská 2582/30, 160 00, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Marek Polášek
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
- T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p.r.i., Podbabská 2582/30, 160 00, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Vít Syrovátka
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Michal Horsák
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
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Dobson B, Barry S, Maes-Prior R, Mijic A, Woodward G, Pearse WD. Predicting catchment suitability for biodiversity at national scales. WATER RESEARCH 2022; 221:118764. [PMID: 35752096 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2022.118764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2022] [Revised: 06/11/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Biomonitoring of water quality and catchment management are often disconnected, due to mismatching scales. Considerable effort and money are spent each year on routine reach-scale surveying across many sites, particularly in countries like the UK, where nationwide sampling has been conducted using standardised techniques for many decades. Most of these traditional freshwater biomonitoring schemes focus on pre-defined indicators of organic pollution to compare observed vs expected subsets of common macroinvertebrate indicator species. Other taxa, including many threatened species, are often ignored due to their rarity, as are many invasive species, which are seen as undesirable despite becoming increasingly common and widespread in freshwaters, especially in urban ecosystems. Both these types of taxa are often monitored separately for reasons related to biodiversity concerns rather than for gauging water quality. Repurposing such data could therefore provide important new biomonitoring tools that can help catchment managers to directly link the water quality they aim to control with the biodiversity they are trying to protect. Here we used extensive data held in the England Non-Native and Rare/Protected species records that track these two groups of species as a proof-of-concept for linking catchment scale management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to a range of potential drivers across England. We used national land use (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land cover map) and water quality indicator (Environment Agency water quality data archive) datasets to predict, at the catchment scale, the presence or absence of 48 focal threatened or invasive species of concern routinely sampled by the English Environment Agency, with a median accuracy of 0.81 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A variety of water quality indicators and land-use types were useful in predictions, highlighting that future biomonitoring schemes could use such complementary measures to capture a wider spectrum of drivers and responses. In particular, the percentage of a catchment covered by freshwater was the single most important metric, reinforcing the need for space/habitat to support biodiversity, but we were also able to resolve a range of key environmental drivers for particular focal species. We show how our method could inform new catchment management approaches, by highlighting how key relationships can be identified and how to understand, visualise and prioritise catchments that are most suitable for restoration or water quality interventions. The scale of this work, in terms of number of species, drivers and locations, represents a significant step towards forging a new approach to catchment management that enables managers to link drivers they can control (water quality and land use) to the biota they are trying to protect (biodiversity).
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Affiliation(s)
- Barnaby Dobson
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College London.
| | - Saoirse Barry
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College London
| | - Robin Maes-Prior
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College London
| | - Ana Mijic
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College London
| | - Guy Woodward
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, U.K
| | - William D Pearse
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, U.K
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3
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Kuemmerlen M, Moorkens EA, Piggott JJ. Assessing remote sensing as a tool to monitor hydrological stress in Irish catchments with Freshwater Pearl Mussel populations. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150807. [PMID: 34626624 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Revised: 09/22/2021] [Accepted: 10/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The West Coast of Ireland hosts many of the few populations of Freshwater Peal Mussels (FPM) left in Europe. The decline of this keystone species is strongly related to deteriorating hydrological conditions, specifically to the threat of low flows during dry summers. Populations still capable of reproducing require a minimum discharge and flow velocity to support juvenile mussels, or else stress builds up and an entire generation may be lost. Monitoring environmental and hydrological conditions in small and remote FPM catchments is difficult due to the lack of infrastructure. Indices derived from remote sensing imagery can be used to assess hydrological variables at the catchment scale. Here, five indices are tested as possible surrogates for soil moisture and evapotranspiration, based on two relevant land-cover types: open peat habitats (OPH) and forestry. Selected indices are then assessed in their ability to reproduce seasonal patterns and in their response to a severe drought event. The moisture stress index (MSI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were found to be the best surrogates for soil moisture and evapotranspiration respectively. Both indices showed seasonality patterns in the two land-cover types, although the variability of MSI was significantly higher. During the 2018 drought, MSI visibly increased only in OPH, while NDVI rose only for forestry. The results suggest that OPH enhances the long-term hydrological resilience of a catchment by conserving water in the peat substrate, while industrial forestry plantations exacerbate the pressure on water during drier periods. This has consequences for river discharge, freshwater biodiversity and specifically for FPM. Implementing these surrogates have the potential to identify land-use management strategies that reduce and even avert the effects of drought on FPM. Such strategies are increasingly necessary in a climate change context, as recurring summer droughts are expected in most of Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathias Kuemmerlen
- Trinity Centre for the Environment, School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
| | - Evelyn A Moorkens
- Trinity Centre for the Environment, School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
| | - Jeremy J Piggott
- Trinity Centre for the Environment, School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
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4
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Integrated Ecohydrological Models in Aquatic Ecosystems. WATER 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/w14020204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
As a critical component of the global environment, aquatic ecosystems support a wide range of organisms, including bacteria, fungi, algae, invertebrates, plants, and fish [...]
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5
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Ma L, Mi C, Qu J, Ge D, Yang Q, Wilcove DS. Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land use change, climate change and dispersal limitations. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Liang Ma
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
| | - Chun‐rong Mi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Jia‐peng Qu
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology Chinese Academy of Sciences Xining China
| | - De‐yan Ge
- Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Qi‐sen Yang
- Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - David S. Wilcove
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
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6
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Schulte To Bühne H, Tobias JA, Durant SM, Pettorelli N. Improving Predictions of Climate Change-Land Use Change Interactions. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 36:29-38. [PMID: 33020018 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change-land use change (CC-LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC-LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henrike Schulte To Bühne
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, NW1 4RY London, UK; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Buckhurst Road, SL5 7PY Ascot, UK.
| | - Joseph A Tobias
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Buckhurst Road, SL5 7PY Ascot, UK
| | - Sarah M Durant
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, NW1 4RY London, UK
| | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, NW1 4RY London, UK
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7
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Maloney KO, Krause KP, Buchanan C, Hay LE, McCabe GJ, Smith ZM, Sohl TL, Young JA. Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2251-2269. [PMID: 31957148 PMCID: PMC7155133 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Accepted: 11/23/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kevin P. Krause
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science CenterKearneysvilleWVUSA
| | - Claire Buchanan
- Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB)RockvilleMDUSA
| | - Lauren E. Hay
- U.S. Geological SurveyDenver Federal CenterDenverCOUSA
| | | | - Zachary M. Smith
- Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB)RockvilleMDUSA
- Present address:
New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC)c/o New York State DEC625 Broadway, 4th FloorAlbanyNY12233USA
| | - Terry L. Sohl
- U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) CenterSioux FallsSDUSA
| | - John A. Young
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science CenterKearneysvilleWVUSA
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8
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He F, Wu N, Dong X, Tang T, Domisch S, Cai Q, Jähnig SC. Elevation, aspect, and local environment jointly determine diatom and macroinvertebrate diversity in the Cangshan Mountain, Southwest China. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 2020; 108:105618. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
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9
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Van Metre PC, Waite IR, Qi S, Mahler B, Terando A, Wieczorek M, Meador M, Bradley P, Journey C, Schmidt T, Carlisle D. Projected urban growth in the southeastern USA puts small streams at risk. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222714. [PMID: 31618213 PMCID: PMC6795418 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2019] [Accepted: 09/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Future land-use development has the potential to profoundly affect the health of aquatic ecosystems in the coming decades. We developed regression models predicting the loss of sensitive fish (R2 = 0.39) and macroinvertebrate (R2 = 0.64) taxa as a function of urban and agricultural land uses and applied them to projected urbanization of the rapidly urbanizing Piedmont ecoregion of the southeastern USA for 2030 and 2060. The regression models are based on a 2014 investigation of water quality and ecology of 75 wadeable streams across the region. Based on these projections, stream kilometers experiencing >50% loss of sensitive fish and invertebrate taxa will nearly quadruple to 19,500 and 38,950 km by 2060 (16 and 32% of small stream kilometers in the region), respectively. Uncertainty was assessed using the 20 and 80% probability of urbanization for the land-use projection model and using the 95% confidence intervals for the regression models. Adverse effects on stream health were linked to elevated concentrations of contaminants and nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, and streamflow alteration, all associated with urbanization. The results of this analysis provide a warning of potential risks from future urbanization and perhaps some guidance on how those risks might be mitigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter C. Van Metre
- United States Geological Survey, Austin, Texas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Ian R. Waite
- United States Geological Survey, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Sharon Qi
- United States Geological Survey, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Barbara Mahler
- United States Geological Survey, Austin, Texas, United States of America
| | - Adam Terando
- United States Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Michael Wieczorek
- United States Geological Survey, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael Meador
- United States Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Paul Bradley
- United States Geological Survey, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Celeste Journey
- United States Geological Survey, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Travis Schmidt
- United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Daren Carlisle
- United States Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
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10
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Wu N, Thodsen H, Andersen HE, Tornbjerg H, Baattrup-Pedersen A, Riis T. Flow regimes filter species traits of benthic diatom communities and modify the functional features of lowland streams - a nationwide scale study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 651:357-366. [PMID: 30240919 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.210] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2018] [Revised: 09/03/2018] [Accepted: 09/16/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Changes in land use, climate and flow diversion are key drivers of river flow regime change that may eventually affect freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, our knowledge is limited on how the functional features of stream organisms vary along the gradient of hydrological disturbance (i.e. flow regime changes) and how flow regimes mediate the functional features in lowland streams. We analyzed the functional traits of benthic diatoms (unicellular siliceous algae) that are most sensitive and tolerant to flow regime changes along a nationwide scale of 246 sites in Denmark. We combined RLQ and fourth-corner analyses to explore the co-variation between hydrological variables (R table) and species traits (Q table), constrained by the relative abundance of each species (L table) as observed in each of the sampling sites. Further, we examine the relationships between functional features (i.e., functional redundancy and diversity) and hydrological variables by multivariate statistical analyses. Results show that species turnover with displacement of sensitive species by tolerant species was the dominating process in benthic diatom communities during high flow disturbances. Functional features, as indicated by functional diversity and redundancy indices, were mediated mainly by high and low flow magnitude. Median daily flow magnitude shows a consistent positive relationship with functional redundancy and richness indices indicating that larger streams are more resilient to flow perturbations. In addition flow regime changes are less important than median daily flow magnitude and show inconsistent correlation to functional features likely due to the interaction of multiple environmental stressors. Our study highlights the robustness of trait-based approaches for identifying flow regime changes in streams, and strongly suggests that biodiversity conservation and water resource management should focus on protecting natural base flow in headwater streams and generally reduce flow regulation for sustaining stream ecosystems under future global changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naicheng Wu
- Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 6B, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark; Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ole Worms Allé 1, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
| | - Hans Thodsen
- Department of Bioscience, AarhusUniversity, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark
| | - Hans Estrup Andersen
- Department of Bioscience, AarhusUniversity, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark
| | - Henrik Tornbjerg
- Department of Bioscience, AarhusUniversity, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark
| | | | - Tenna Riis
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ole Worms Allé 1, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
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11
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Identifying key factors, actors and relevant scales in landscape and conservation planning, management and decision making: Promoting effective citizen involvement. J Nat Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2018.11.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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12
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Olson JR. Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 374:rstb.2018.0005. [PMID: 30509907 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm-1 to 0.524 mS cm-1 with over 50% of streams having greater than 50% increases in EC and 35% more than doubling their EC. Most of the change is related to increases in human land use, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase. In extreme cases, increased salinity may make water unsuitable for human use, but widespread moderate increases are likely a greater threat to stream ecosystems owing to the elimination of low EC habitats.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.
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Affiliation(s)
- John R Olson
- California State University Monterey Bay, School of Natural Sciences, 100 Campus Center, Seaside, CA 93955, USA
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13
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Irving K, Kuemmerlen M, Kiesel J, Kakouei K, Domisch S, Jähnig SC. A high-resolution streamflow and hydrological metrics dataset for ecological modeling using a regression model. Sci Data 2018; 5:180224. [PMID: 30398476 PMCID: PMC6219418 DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Hydrological variables are among the most influential when analyzing or modeling stream ecosystems. However, available hydrological data are often limited in their spatiotemporal scale and resolution for use in ecological applications such as predictive modeling of species distributions. To overcome this limitation, a regression model was applied to a 1 km gridded stream network of Germany to obtain estimated daily stream flow data (m3 s-1) spanning 64 years (1950-2013). The data are used as input to calculate hydrological indices characterizing stream flow regimes. Both temporal and spatial validations were performed. In addition, GLMs using both the calculated and observed hydrological indices were compared, suggesting that the predicted flow data are adequate for use in predictive ecological models. Accordingly, we provide estimated stream flow as well as a set of 53 hydrological metrics at 1 km grid for the stream network of Germany. In addition, we provide an R script where the presented methodology is implemented, that uses globally available data and can be directly applied to any other geographical region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie Irving
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany.,Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy, Freie University Berlin, Takustraße 3, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Mathias Kuemmerlen
- Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modeling, Eawag, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - Jens Kiesel
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany.,Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Institute for Natural Resource Conservation, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Kiel, Germany
| | - Karan Kakouei
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany.,Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy, Freie University Berlin, Takustraße 3, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Sami Domisch
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
| | - Sonja C Jähnig
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
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14
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Stefanidis K, Panagopoulos Y, Mimikou M. Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 627:756-769. [PMID: 29426200 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2017] [Revised: 01/27/2018] [Accepted: 01/27/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the ecological threat on waters in the long-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Konstantinos Stefanidis
- Center for Hydrology and Informatics, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece.
| | - Yiannis Panagopoulos
- Center for Hydrology and Informatics, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
| | - Maria Mimikou
- Center for Hydrology and Informatics, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
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15
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Jourdan J, O'Hara RB, Bottarin R, Huttunen KL, Kuemmerlen M, Monteith D, Muotka T, Ozoliņš D, Paavola R, Pilotto F, Springe G, Skuja A, Sundermann A, Tonkin JD, Haase P. Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 621:588-599. [PMID: 29195206 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2017] [Revised: 11/20/2017] [Accepted: 11/21/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonas Jourdan
- Department of River Ecology and Conservation, Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany.
| | - Robert B O'Hara
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | | | - Mathias Kuemmerlen
- Dept. Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland
| | - Don Monteith
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, UK
| | - Timo Muotka
- Department of Ecology & Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
| | | | - Riku Paavola
- Oulanka research station, University of Oulu Infrastructure Platform, University of Oulu, Kuusamo, Finland
| | - Francesca Pilotto
- Department of River Ecology and Conservation, Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany
| | | | | | - Andrea Sundermann
- Department of River Ecology and Conservation, Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany; Institute of Ecology, Evolution & Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Jonathan D Tonkin
- Department of Integrative Biology, 3029 Cordley Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Peter Haase
- Department of River Ecology and Conservation, Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany; Faculty of Biology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
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16
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Kakouei K, Kiesel J, Domisch S, Irving KS, Jähnig SC, Kail J. Projected effects of Climate-change-induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:3393-3409. [PMID: 29607034 PMCID: PMC5869304 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2018] [Accepted: 01/14/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species' response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower-mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present-day gauging data. Species' abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998-2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046-2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080-2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high-resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low-flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to -42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower-mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate-change impacts on species abundances and can be applied to any stressor, species, or region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karan Kakouei
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany.,Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy Free University of Berlin Berlin Germany
| | - Jens Kiesel
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany.,Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management Institute for Natural Resource Conservation Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel Kiel Germany
| | - Sami Domisch
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany
| | - Katie S Irving
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany.,Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy Free University of Berlin Berlin Germany
| | - Sonja C Jähnig
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany
| | - Jochem Kail
- Department of Aquatic Ecology University of Duisburg-Essen Essen Germany
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17
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Severity Multipliers as a Methodology to Explore Potential Effects of Climate Change on Stream Bioassessment Programs. WATER 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/w9040188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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18
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Pyne MI, Poff NL. Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:77-93. [PMID: 27429092 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2015] [Revised: 06/09/2016] [Accepted: 06/14/2016] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew I Pyne
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
- Department of Biology, Lamar University, Beaumont, TX, 77710, USA
| | - N LeRoy Poff
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
- Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, 2617, Australia
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19
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Charbonnel A, Laffaille P, Biffi M, Blanc F, Maire A, Némoz M, Sanchez-Perez JM, Sauvage S, Buisson L. Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees? PLoS One 2016; 11:e0159941. [PMID: 27467269 PMCID: PMC4965056 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2016] [Accepted: 07/11/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anaïs Charbonnel
- Conservatoire d’Espaces Naturels Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
- * E-mail: (AC); (LB)
| | - Pascal Laffaille
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Marjorie Biffi
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
| | - Frédéric Blanc
- Conservatoire d’Espaces Naturels Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France
| | - Anthony Maire
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
| | - Mélanie Némoz
- Conservatoire d’Espaces Naturels Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France
| | - José Miguel Sanchez-Perez
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Sabine Sauvage
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Laëtitia Buisson
- CNRS, UMR 5245, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Toulouse, France
- Université de Toulouse, INP, UPS, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
- * E-mail: (AC); (LB)
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20
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Radinger J, Hölker F, Horký P, Slavík O, Dendoncker N, Wolter C. Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:1505-1522. [PMID: 26649996 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2015] [Revised: 11/10/2015] [Accepted: 11/16/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes Radinger
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587, Berlin, Germany
| | - Franz Hölker
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587, Berlin, Germany
| | - Pavel Horký
- Department of Zoology and Fisheries, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 21, Praha 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Ondřej Slavík
- Department of Zoology and Fisheries, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 21, Praha 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Département de Géographie, Université de Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, 5000, Namur, Belgium
| | - Christian Wolter
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587, Berlin, Germany
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21
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Huang J, Frimpong EA, Orth DJ. Temporal transferability of stream fish distribution models: can uncalibrated SDMs predict distribution shifts over time? DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jian Huang
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg VA USA
| | - Emmanuel A. Frimpong
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg VA USA
| | - Donald J. Orth
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg VA USA
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