Climate-diameter growth relationships of black spruce and jack pine trees in boreal Ontario, Canada

Hydrothermal environments lead to differences in the radial growth response of Pinus tabulaeformis to climate in the monsoon marginal zone, Northwestern China

Regional climatic differences increase the complexity of tree radial growth responses to climate change in the monsoon marginal zones and may alter the carbon sequestration capacity of forests. In this study, we collected cores of Pinus tabulaeformis trees at nine sampling sites across different regions. We analysed the relationship between tree-ring width chronology and climatic factors at different sites using dendroecological methods. We used the tree-ring index to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience as well as to explore the capacity of radial growth to cope with drought events. The results indicate that (1) Drought was the primary factor limiting tree growth, and tree-ring climate response patterns varied across three regions. Tree growth was sensitive to both temperature and precipitation in the eastern Qilian Mountains, while it was more sensitive to temperature in the Hassan Mountains and more sensitive to precipitation in the Helan Mountains. (2) The tree-ring climate response pattern remained unstable over time, and the relative influence of current climate on tree growth increased. (3) The ecological resilience of trees to extreme events varies across three regions, which could be attributed to regional moisture conditions and the duration of drought. In the context of the management and protection of trees in the study area in the future, more attention should be paid to the elasticity of tree growth after drought events.

Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests

Reports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2041-2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%-12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.

Dendroclimatic response of Pinus tabuliformis Carr. along an altitudinal gradient in the warm temperate region of China

INTRODUCTION

Global climate change can affect the sensitivity of tree radial growth to climate factors, but the specific responses of tree radial growth to microclimate along the altitudinal gradient in the long term are still unclear.

METHODS

In this study, the tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus tabuliformis Carr. in Shanxi Province of China were studied at three altitude gradients (1200-1300 m (low altitude), 1300-1400 m (medium altitude) and 1400-1500 m (high altitude)) during 1958-2017.

RESULTS

The results showed that (1) the climate background could be divided into two periods based on the Mann-Kendall test analysis: 1958-1996 was a stable period (mean annual temperature (MAT)=10.25°C, mean annual precipitation (MAP)=614.39 mm), and 1997-2017 was a rapid change period (MAT=10.91°C, MAP=564.70 mm), indicating a warming and drying trend in the study region. (2) The radial growth of P. tabuliformis at different altitudes showed inconsistent variation patterns. The tree radial growth at low and medium altitudes (CV=27.01% for low altitude and CV=24.69% for medium altitude) showed larger variation amplitudes during the rapid change period than that in the stable period (CV=12.40% for low altitude and CV=18.42% for medium altitude). In contrast to the increasing trend, the tree radial growth rates at the high altitude showed a decreasing trend across years. (3) In the stable period, the radial growth of P. tabuliformis at the low altitude showed a significantly negative response to temperature and a positive response to precipitation in May and June. The tree radial growth at the medium altitude was positively related to precipitation in June and minimum temperature in February. The tree growth at the high altitude was mainly positively correlated with the temperature in May and August. In the rapid change period, the radial growth of P. tabuliformis at the low altitude was affected by more meteorological factors than that in the stable period. Medium-altitude trees were positively influenced by precipitation in June and minimum temperature in January, whereas high-altitude trees responded positively to wind speed in February. (4) Along altitudinal gradients, tree radial growth was more related to temperature than precipitation in the stable period. The tree radial growth at the high altitude during the rapid change period was only affected by wind speed in February, whereas the tree radial growth at low and medium altitudes was mainly affected by temperature to a similar extent during the two periods.

DISCUSSION

The study indicated that tree growth-climate response models could help deeply understand the impact of climate change on tree growth adaptation and would be beneficial for developing sustainable management policies for forest ecosystems in the transition zone from warm-temperate to subtropical climates.

Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Height to Crown Base Model for Moso Bamboo (Phyllostachys heterocycla (Carr.) Mitford cv. Pubescens) in Eastern China

Height to crown base (HCB) is an important variable used as a predictor of forest growth and yield. This study developed a nonlinear, mixed-effects HCB model through inclusion of plot-level random effects using data from 29 sample plots distributed across a state-owned Yixing forest farm in Jiangsu province, eastern China. Among several predictor variables evaluated in the analyses, bamboo height, canopy density, and total basal area of bamboo with a diameter larger than that of the subject bamboo individual contributed significantly to the HCB variations. The inclusion of random effects improved the prediction accuracy of the model significantly, indicating that the HCB variations within and across the sample plots were substantial. The model was localized using four sampling strategies, and the study identified that using two medium-sized bamboos by diameter at breast height per sample plot resulted in the smallest prediction error. This strategy, which would balance both measurement cost and potential error, may be applied to estimate the random effects and localization of the nonlinear mixed-effects HCB model for moso bamboo in eastern China.

Climate Effects on Black Spruce and Trembling Aspen Productivity in Natural Origin Mixed Stands

Forest managers need site productivity estimates for tree species growing in mixed stands. Models developed in the past are generally for pure stands and don’t factor in the effects of climate change on site productivity. Therefore, site index (SI) models were developed for black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. B.S.P.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) trees grown in natural origin mixed stands. For this, 186 trees (93 black spruce and trembling aspen each) were sampled from 31 even-aged natural mixed stands (sites) (3 trees/species/site) across Ontario, Canada. Stand height growth models were developed by incorporating climate variables during growth for each species. Stem analysis data collected from sampled trees were used to develop these models. A mixed effects modelling approach was used to fit the models. The relationship between SIs of black spruce and trembling aspen grown in mixed stands was analyzed by calculating correlation coefficients and plotting black spruce SIs against those of trembling aspen. Climate effects on site productivity were evaluated by predicting stand heights for 4 geographic areas of Ontario for the period 2021 to 2080. Three emissions scenarios reflecting different amounts of heat at the end of the century (i.e., 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 watts m−2) were used in the stand height growth models developed here for evaluation. Climate effects were more pronounced for trembling aspen than black spruce only in the far west. The relationship between SIs of black spruce and trembling aspen trees grown in natural origin mixed stands could not be described using a linear/nonlinear mathematical function. The models developed here can be used to estimate stand height and SI of black spruce and trembling aspen trees grown in natural origin mixed stands in a changing climate. In the absence of climate data, models fitted without climate variables can be used to estimate SI of both species.

Site index as a predictor of the effect of climate warming on boreal tree growth

The boreal forest represents the terrestrial biome most heavily affected by climate change. However, no consensus exists regarding the impacts of these changes on the growth of tree species therein. Moreover, assessments of young tree responses in metrics transposable to forest management remain scarce. Here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller] BSP) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) growth, two dominant tree species in boreal forests of North America. Starting with a retrospective analysis including data from 2591 black spruces and 890 jack pines, we forecasted trends in 30-year height growth at the transitions from closed to open boreal coniferous forests in Québec, Canada. We considered three variables: (1) height growth, rarely used, but better-reflecting site potential than other growth proxies, (2) climate normals corresponding to the growth period of each stem, and (3) site type (as a function of texture, stoniness, and drainage), which can modify the effects of climate on tree growth. We found a positive effect of vapor pressure deficit on the growth of both species, although the effect on black spruce leveled off. For black spruce, temperatures had a positive effect on the height at 30 years, which was attenuated when and where climatic conditions became drier. Conversely, drought had a positive effect on height under cold conditions and a negative effect under warm conditions. Spruce growth was also better on mesic than on rocky and sub-hydric sites. For portions of the study areas with projected future climate within the calibration range, median height-change varied from 10 to 31% for black spruce and from 5 to 31% for jack pine, depending on the period and climate scenario. As projected increases are relatively small, they may not be sufficient to compensate for potential increases in future disturbances like forest fires.

Timescale Effects of Radial Growth Responses of Two Dominant Coniferous Trees on Climate Change in the Eastern Qilian Mountains

To explore the difference in the response of the radial growth of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia on different timescales to climate factors in the eastern part of Qilian Mountains, we used dendrochronology to select four different timescales (day, pentad (5 days), dekad (10 days), and month) for exploration. The primary conclusions were as follows: (1) According to an investigation of the dynamic correlations between radial growth and climate conditions, drought during the growing season has been the dominant limiting factor for radial growth across both species in recent decades; (2) climate data at the dekad scale are best for examining the correlations between radial growth and climate variables; and (3) based on basal area increment, P. tabuliformis in the study area showed a trend of first an increase and then a decrease, while P. crassifolia showed a trend of continuous increase (BAI). As the climate continues to warm in the future, forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid areas will be more susceptible to severe drought, which will lead to a decline in tree growth, death, and community deterioration. As a result, it is critical to implement appropriate management approaches for various species based on the peculiarities of their climate change responses.

Simulating the Effects of Intensifying Silviculture on Desired Species Yields across a Broad Environmental Gradient

In the past two decades, forest management has undergone major paradigm shifts that are challenging the current forest modelling architecture. New silvicultural systems, guidelines for natural disturbance emulation, a desire to enhance structural complexity, major advances in successional theory, and climate change have all highlighted the limitations of current empirical models in covering this range of conditions. Mechanistic models, which focus on modelling underlying ecological processes rather than specific forest conditions, have the potential to meet these new paradigm shifts in a consistent framework, thereby streamlining the planning process. Here we use the NEBIE (a silvicultural intervention scale that classifies management intensities as natural, extensive, basic, intensive, and elite) plot network, from across Ontario, Canada, to examine the applicability of a mechanistic model, ZELIG-CFS (a version of the ZELIG tree growth model developed by the Canadian Forest Service), to simulate yields and species compositions. As silvicultural intensity increased, overall yield generally increased. Species compositions met the desired outcomes when specific silvicultural treatments were implemented and otherwise generally moved from more shade-intolerant to more shade-tolerant species through time. Our results indicated that a mechanistic model can simulate complex stands across a range of forest types and silvicultural systems while accounting for climate change. Finally, we highlight the need to improve the modelling of regeneration processes in ZELIG-CFS to better represent regeneration dynamics in plantations. While fine-tuning is needed, mechanistic models present an option to incorporate adaptive complexity into modelling forest management outcomes.

Increasing Volumetric Prediction Accuracy—An Essential Prerequisite for End-Product Forecasting in Red Pine

Sustainable forest management requires accurate estimates of wood volume. At present, red pine (Pinus resinosa Sol. ex Aiton) is the most widely planted conifer tree species in southern Ontario, Canada. Therefore, inside and outside bark volume equations were developed for red pine trees grown in plantations. One hundred and fifty red pine trees were sampled from 30 even-aged plantations from across Ontario, Canada. Height-diameter pairs along the boles of sampled trees used to calculate stem volumes were obtained from stem analysis. Equations fitted to the data were a combined variable, modified combined variable, and modified form of dimensionally compatible volume equations. These equations were compared for their goodness-of-fit statistics, logical consistency, and predictive accuracy. The goodness-of-fit characteristics for all three equations were comparable for both inside and outside bark volumes. However, the estimated values for the intercept for the modified form of the dimensionally compatible and modified combined variable volume equations were negative and nonsignificant. The combined variable volume equation resulted in logically consistent parameter estimates in the presence of random effects parameters. Therefore, this equation was selected as the inside and outside bark volume equation for red pine trees grown in plantations. A nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach was applied in fitting the final volume equation that included a weight (power function) to address heteroscedasticity. The equations developed here can be used to calculate inside and outside bark volumes of red pine plantations in boreal forests in Eastern Canada. These equations would require both diameter at breast height (DBH) and total height values in meters.

Regional and Local Moisture Gradients Drive the Resistance to and Recovery from Drought of Picea crassifolia Kom. in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China

Increasing evidence suggests that extreme droughts cause more frequent tree growth reduction. To understand the consequences of these droughts better, this study used tree-ring cores from nine sites to investigate how moisture and altitudinal gradients affect the radial growth of Picea crassifolia Kom., a common species in the Qilian Mountains in northwest China. The total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature in the eastern region were higher than those in the western region of the Qilian Mountains. The trees in the eastern region showed stronger resistance to drought than those in the west, as they had a smaller difference in radial growth between drought disturbance and pre-drought disturbance. At the same time, the trees in the east showed weaker ability to recover from drought, as they had a subtle difference in radial growth between post-drought disturbance and drought disturbance. Furthermore, the trees in the east also showed weaker relative resilience to drought, as they had a small difference in radial growth between post-drought and drought disturbance weighted by growth in pre-drought disturbance. For trees below 3000 m a.s.l., trees with high resistance capacity usually had low recovery capacity and low relative resilience capacity. Trees at higher altitudes also showed stronger resistance to drought and weaker ability to recover from drought after a drought event than those at lower altitudes in the middle of the Qilian Mountains. Trees at lower altitudes in the middle of the Qilian Mountains had more difficulties recovering from more severe and longer drought events. In the context of global warming, trees in the western region and at lower altitudes should be given special attention and protection in forest management to enhance their resistance to extreme droughts.

Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate

WorldClim version 1 is a high-resolution, global climate gridded dataset covering 1961–1990; a “normal” climate. It has been widely used for ecological studies thanks to its free availability and global coverage. This study aims to evaluate the quality of WorldClim data by quantifying any discrepancies by comparison with an independent dataset of measured temperature and precipitation records across Europe. BIO1 (mean annual temperature, MAT) and BIO12 (mean total annual precipitation, MAP) were used as proxies to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the WorldClim grids. While good representativeness was detected for MAT, the study demonstrated a bias with respect to MAP. The average difference between WorldClim predictions and climate observations was around +0.2 °C for MAT and −48.7 mm for MAP, with large variability. The regression analysis revealed a good correlation and adequate proportion of explained variance for MAT (adjusted R2 = 0.856) but results for MAP were poor, with just 64% of the variance explained (adjusted R2 = 0.642). Moreover no spatial structure was found across Europe, nor any statistical relationship with elevation, latitude, or longitude, the environmental predictors used to generate climate surfaces. A detectable spatial autocorrelation was only detectable for the two most thoroughly sampled countries (Germany and Sweden). Although further adjustments might be evaluated by means of geostatistical methods (i.e., kriging), the huge environmental variability of the European environment deeply stressed the WorldClim database. Overall, these results show the importance of an adequate spatial structure of meteorological stations as fundamental to improve the reliability of climate surfaces and derived products of the research (i.e., statistical models, future projections).

Individual Tree Diameter Growth Models of Larch–Spruce–Fir Mixed Forests Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Individual tree growth models are flexible and commonly used to represent growth dynamics for heterogeneous and structurally complex uneven-aged stands. Besides traditional statistical models, the rapid development of nonparametric and nonlinear machine learning methods, such as random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), cubist (Cubist) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), provides a new way for predicting individual tree growth. However, the application of these approaches to individual tree growth modelling is still limited and short of a comparison of their performance. The objectives of this study were to compare and evaluate the performance of the RF, BRT, Cubist and MARS models for modelling the individual tree diameter growth based on tree size, competition, site condition and climate factors for larch–spruce–fir mixed forests in northeast China. Totally, 16,619 observations from long-term sample plots were used. Based on tenfold cross-validation, we found that the RF, BRT and Cubist models had a distinct advantage over the MARS model in predicting individual tree diameter growth. The Cubist model ranked the highest in terms of model performance (RMSEcv [0.1351 cm], MAEcv [0.0972 cm] and R2cv [0.5734]), followed by BRT and RF models, whereas the MARS ranked the lowest (RMSEcv [0.1462 cm], MAEcv [0.1086 cm] and R2cv [0.4993]). Relative importance of predictors determined from the RF and BRT models demonstrated that the competition and tree size were the main drivers to diameter growth, and climate had limited capacity in explaining the variation in tree diameter growth at local scale. In general, the RF, BRT and Cubist models are effective and powerful modelling methods for predicting the individual tree diameter growth.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Understanding tree growth responses after partial cuttings: A new approach

Forest ecosystem management heads towards the use of partial cuttings. However, the wide variation in growth response of residual trees remains unexplained, preventing a suitable prediction of forest productivity. The aim of the study was to assess individual growth and identify the driving factors involved in the responses of residual trees. Six study blocks in even-aged black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] stands of the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to experimental shelterwood and seed-tree treatments. Individual-tree models were applied to 1039 trees to analyze their patterns of radial growth during the 10 years after partial cutting by using the nonlinear Schnute function on tree-ring series. The trees exhibited different growth patterns. A sigmoid growth was detected in 32% of trees, mainly in control plots of older stands. Forty-seven percent of trees located in the interior of residual strips showed an S-shape, which was influenced by stand mortality, harvested intensity and dominant height. Individuals showing an exponential pattern produced the greatest radial growth after cutting and were edge trees of younger stands with higher dominant height. A steady growth decline was observed in 4% of trees, represented by the individuals suppressed and insensitive to the treatment. The analyses demonstrated that individual nonlinear models are able to assess the variability in growth within the stand and the factors involved in the occurrence of the different growth patterns, thus improving understanding of the tree responses to partial cutting. This new approach can sustain forest management strategies by defining the best conditions to optimize the growth yield of residual trees.

Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models

The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO ₂, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO ₂ influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO ₂ concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔF_tree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔF_tree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (F_tree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔF_tree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, F_tree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < F_tree < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, ΔF_tree had a stronger dependence on F_tree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO ₂ concentration.

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.

Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land

Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

Growth duration is a better predictor of stem increment than carbon supply in a Mediterranean oak forest: implications for assessing forest productivity under climate change

Understanding whether tree growth is limited by carbon gain (source limitation) or by the direct effect of environmental factors such as water deficit or temperature (sink limitation) is crucial for improving projections of the effects of climate change on forest productivity. We studied the relationships between tree basal area (BA) variations, eddy covariance carbon fluxes, predawn water potential (Ψpd ) and temperature at different timescales using an 8-yr dataset and a rainfall exclusion experiment in a Quercus ilex Mediterranean coppice. At the daily timescale, during periods of low temperature (< 5°C) and high water deficit (< -1.1 MPa), gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity remained positive whereas the stem increment was nil. Thus, stem increment appeared limited by drought and temperature rather than by carbon input. Annual growth was accurately predicted by the duration of BA increment during spring (Δtt0-t1 ). The onset of growth (t0 ) was related to winter temperatures and the summer interruption of growth (t1 ) to a threshold Ψpd value of -1.1 MPa. We suggest that using environmental drivers (i.e. drought and temperature) to predict stem growth phenology can contribute to an improvement in vegetation models and may change the current projections of Mediterranean forest productivity under climate change scenarios.

Warming-Induced Decline of Picea crassifolia Growth in the Qilian Mountains in Recent Decades

Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region.

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends.

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.

Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.