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Guo Y, Zhao Z, Zhu F, Gao B. The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 864:161007. [PMID: 36549530 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Revised: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Pistacia chinensis Bunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area of P. chinensis in China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area of P. chinensis under specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area of P. chinensis covers approximately 0.74 × 106 km2 in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area of P. chinensis is limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanlong Guo
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Zefang Zhao
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Fuxin Zhu
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Bei Gao
- Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops, Xi'an 710014, China
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Triviño M, Morán-Ordoñez A, Eyvindson K, Blattert C, Burgas D, Repo A, Pohjanmies T, Brotons L, Snäll T, Mönkkönen M. Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:1484-1500. [PMID: 36534408 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Triviño
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- School of Resource Wisdom, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
| | - Alejandra Morán-Ordoñez
- Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia CTCF, Solsona, Spain
- Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Kyle Eyvindson
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- School of Resource Wisdom, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Helsinki, Finland
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway
| | - Clemens Blattert
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- School of Resource Wisdom, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- Forest Resources and Management, Swiss Federal Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Daniel Burgas
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- School of Resource Wisdom, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
| | - Anna Repo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Lluís Brotons
- Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia CTCF, Solsona, Spain
- Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Tord Snäll
- SLU Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Mikko Mönkkönen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
- School of Resource Wisdom, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland
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LEDee OE, Handler SD, Hoving CL, Swanston CW, Zuckerberg B. Preparing Wildlife for Climate Change: How Far Have We Come? J Wildl Manage 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Olivia E. LEDee
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center 1992 Folwell Avenue St. Paul MN 55116 USA
| | - Stephen D. Handler
- Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service 410 MacInnes Drive Houghton MI 49931 USA
| | - Christopher L. Hoving
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources 525 West Allegan Street Lansing MI 48909 USA
| | - Christopher W. Swanston
- Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service 410 MacInnes Drive Houghton MI 49931 USA
| | - Benjamin Zuckerberg
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison 1620 Linden Drive Madison WI 53705 USA
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European Union’s Last Intact Forest Landscapes are at A Value Chain Crossroad between Multiple Use and Intensified Wood Production. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10070564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Research Highlights: The European Union’s last large intact forest landscapes along the Scandinavian Mountain range in Sweden offer unique opportunities for conservation of biodiversity, ecological integrity and resilience. However, these forests are at a crossroad between intensified wood production aimed at bio-economy, and rural development based on multi-functional forest landscapes for future-oriented forest value chains. Background and Objectives: We (1) estimate the area of near-natural forests potentially remaining for forest harvesting and wood production, or as green infrastructure for biodiversity conservation and human well-being in rural areas, (2) review how forest and conservation policies have so far succeeded to reduce the loss of mountain forests, and (3) discuss what economic, socio-cultural and ecological values that are at stake, as well as different governance and management solutions. Materials and Methods: First, we estimated the remaining amount of intact mountain forests using (1) the Swedish National Forest Inventory, (2) protected area statistics, (3) forest harvest permit applications and actually harvested forests, (4) remote sensing wall-to-wall data on forests not subject to clear-felling since the mid-1950s, (5) mapping of productive and non-productive forestland, and (6) estimates of mean annual final felling rate. Second, we review policy documents related to the emergence of land use regulation in north Sweden, including the mountain forest border, and illustrate this with an actual case that has had significant policy implementation importance. Results: There is a clear difference between the proportions of formally protected productive forestland above the mountain forest border (52.5%) and north Sweden in general (6.3%). A total of 300,000 ha of previously not clear-felled mountain forest outside protected areas remain, which can support novel value chains that are not achievable elsewhere. Conclusions: The mountain forests in Sweden provide unique conservation values in the European Union. Since the beginning of the 1990s, policy regulations have been successful in limiting forest harvesting. Currently, however, mountain forests are a battle ground regarding intensification of forest use, including logging of forests that have never been subject to clear-felling systems vs. nature conservation and wilderness as a base for rural development. The ability of mountain municipalities to encourage sustainable rural forest landscapes must be strengthened.
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Betts MG, Gutiérrez Illán J, Yang Z, Shirley SM, Thomas CD. Synergistic Effects of Climate and Land-Cover Change on Long-Term Bird Population Trends of the Western USA: A Test of Modeled Predictions. Front Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Thorne JH, Choe H, Boynton RM, Bjorkman J, Albright W, Nydick K, Flint AL, Flint LE, Schwartz MW. The impact of climate change uncertainty on California's vegetation and adaptation management. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- James H. Thorne
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California 95616 USA
| | - Hyeyeong Choe
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California 95616 USA
| | - Ryan M. Boynton
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California 95616 USA
| | - Jacquelyn Bjorkman
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California 95616 USA
| | - Whitney Albright
- California Department of Fish and Wildlife 1416 Ninth Street, Suite 1221 Sacramento California 95814 USA
| | - Koren Nydick
- Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Three Rivers California 93271 USA
| | - Alan L. Flint
- US Geological Survey Placer Hall, 6000 J Street Sacramento California 95819‐6129 USA
| | - Lorraine E. Flint
- US Geological Survey Placer Hall, 6000 J Street Sacramento California 95819‐6129 USA
| | - Mark W. Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California 95616 USA
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Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy. FORESTS 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/f8090321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Rogers BM, Jantz P, Goetz SJ. Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:3302-3320. [PMID: 27935162 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2016] [Accepted: 11/07/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brendan M Rogers
- Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | - Patrick Jantz
- Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | - Scott J Goetz
- Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, USA
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Mair L, Harrison PJ, Räty M, Bärring L, Strandberg G, Snäll T. Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2017; 27:1485-1497. [PMID: 28370800 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2017] [Accepted: 02/24/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Mair
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Philip J Harrison
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Minna Räty
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Lars Bärring
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Gustav Strandberg
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Tord Snäll
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
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Serra-Varela MJ, Alía R, Daniels RR, Zimmermann NE, Gonzalo-Jiménez J, Grivet D. Assessing vulnerability of two Mediterranean conifers to support genetic conservation management in the face of climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- María Jesús Serra-Varela
- Department of Plant Production and Forest Resources; University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute; INIA-University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
- Department of Forest Ecology and Genetics; INIA, Forest Research Centre; Madrid Spain
| | - Ricardo Alía
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute; INIA-University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
- Department of Forest Ecology and Genetics; INIA, Forest Research Centre; Madrid Spain
| | - Rose Ruiz Daniels
- Department of Forest Ecology and Genetics; INIA, Forest Research Centre; Madrid Spain
| | - Niklaus E. Zimmermann
- Landscape Dynamics; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Birmensdorf Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH; Zürich Switzerland
| | - Julián Gonzalo-Jiménez
- Department of Plant Production and Forest Resources; University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute; INIA-University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
| | - Delphine Grivet
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute; INIA-University of Valladolid; Palencia Spain
- Department of Forest Ecology and Genetics; INIA, Forest Research Centre; Madrid Spain
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Choe H, Thorne JH, Hijmans R, Kim J, Kwon H, Seo C. Meta-corridor solutions for climate-vulnerable plant species groups in South Korea. J Appl Ecol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hyeyeong Choe
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy; University of California, Davis; Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - James H. Thorne
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy; University of California, Davis; Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - Robert Hijmans
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy; University of California, Davis; Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - Jiyoen Kim
- Monitoring and Analysis Division; Yeongsan River Basin Environmental Office; Ministry of Environment; Gwangju 61945 South Korea
| | - Hyuksoo Kwon
- Division of Ecosystem Services & Research Planning; National Institute of Ecology; Seocheon-gun 33657 South Korea
| | - Changwan Seo
- Division of Ecosystem Services & Research Planning; National Institute of Ecology; Seocheon-gun 33657 South Korea
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Corrigendum. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2015; 21:3193. [PMID: 26386356 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
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