Warmer winters reduce frog fecundity and shift breeding phenology, which consequently alters larval development and metamorphic timing

Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios

Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.

Effects of temperature and precipitation changes on shifts in breeding phenology of an endangered toad

In the last century, a plethora of species have shown rapid phenological changes in response to climate change. Among animals, amphibians exhibit some of the greatest responses since their activity strongly depends on temperature and rainfall regimes. These shifts in phenology can have negative consequences for amphibian fitness. Thus, understanding phenological changes in amphibians is pivotal to design conservation actions to mitigate climate change effects. We used data on Common Spadefoot Toad (Pelobates fuscus) reproductive migration to wetlands over a period of 8 years in Italy to (i) identify the factors related to breeding migrations, (ii) assess potential phenological shifts in the breeding period, and (iii) determine which climatic factors are related to the observed phenological shifts. Our results showed that toads migrate to spawning sites preferably in early spring, on rainy days with temperatures of 9-14 °C, and with high humidity. Furthermore, despite an increase in average temperature across the study period, we observed a delay in the start of breeding migrations of 12.4 days over 8 years. This counterintuitive pattern was the result of a succession of hot and dry years that occurred in the study area, highlighting that for ephemeral pond breeders, precipitation could have a larger impact than temperature on phenology. Our results belie the strong presumption that climate change will shift amphibian phenology toward an earlier breeding migration and underline the importance of closely investigating the environmental factors related to species phenology.

Environmental drivers of tropical forest snake phenology: Insights from citizen science

Museum specimens and citizen science initiatives are valuable sources of information on how anthropogenic activities affect biodiversity and how species respond to rapid global change. Although tropical regions harbor most of the planet's biodiversity, investigations on species' phenological changes are heavily biased toward temperate regions. Such unevenness in phenological research is also taxonomically biased, with reptiles being the least studied group among tetrapod species regarding animal phenology. Herein, we used long-term time-series data to investigate environmentally driven changes in the activity pattern of tropical forest snakes. We gathered natural history collection and citizen science data for 25 snake species (five venomous and 20 non-venomous) from an Atlantic Forest region in southeastern Brazil. Using circular mixed-effects models, we investigate whether snake activity patterns followed the variation in environmental variables over a decade. Our results show that the activity pattern of Atlantic Forest snakes was seasonal and largely driven by average temperature and relative humidity. Since snakes are ectothermic animals, they are particularly sensitive to temperature variations, especially at small scales. Moreover, relative humidity can affect snake's seasonal activities through physiological constraints and/or prey availability. Most specimens were registered during the rainy season, with highly venomous snakes (lanceheads and coral snakes) emerging as the most abundant taxa. We highlight the importance of citizen science and natural history collections in better understanding biodiversity. Furthermore, our data obtained from local collectors underscore the need for environmental education programs and collaboration between researchers and local decision-makers to raise awareness and reduce conflicts between people and snakes in the region.

Body mass index does not decline during winter for the sedentary marine gastropod Crepidula fornicata

Seasonal extremes in environmental conditions can substantially limit the growth and reproduction of animals. Sedentary marine animals are particularly susceptible to winter food limitation since they cannot relocate to more favourable conditions. In several temperate-zone bivalve species, substantial winter tissue mass declines have been documented; however, no comparable studies have been conducted on intertidal gastropods. Here, we investigate whether the suspension-feeding intertidal gastropod Crepidula fornicata also loses substantial tissue mass during the winter. We calculated body mass index (BMI) for individuals collected in New England at different times of year for 7 years to determine whether BMI declines through winter or varies seasonally. Remarkably, C. fornicata body mass did not decline significantly during winter months; indeed, a relatively poorer body condition was associated with higher seawater temperature, higher air temperature and higher chlorophyll concentration. In a laboratory experiment, we found that C. fornicata adults that were not fed for three weeks at 6°C (local winter seawater temperature) showed no detectable declines in BMI compared to field-collected individuals. Future studies should document energy budgets of C. fornicata and other sedentary marine animals at low winter seawater temperatures, and the impact of short-term elevated temperatures on those energy budgets.

Applied winter biology: threats, conservation and management of biological resources during winter in cold climate regions

Winter at high latitudes is characterized by low temperatures, dampened light levels and short photoperiods which shape ecological and evolutionary outcomes from cells to populations to ecosystems. Advances in our understanding of winter biological processes (spanning physiology, behaviour and ecology) highlight that biodiversity threats (e.g. climate change driven shifts in reproductive windows) may interact with winter conditions, leading to greater ecological impacts. As such, conservation and management strategies that consider winter processes and their consequences on biological mechanisms may lead to greater resilience of high altitude and latitude ecosystems. Here, we use well-established threat and action taxonomies produced by the International Union of Conservation of Nature-Conservation Measures Partnership (IUCN-CMP) to synthesize current threats to biota that emerge during, or as the result of, winter processes then discuss targeted management approaches for winter-based conservation. We demonstrate the importance of considering winter when identifying threats to biodiversity and deciding on appropriate management strategies across species and ecosystems. We confirm our expectation that threats are prevalent during the winter and are especially important considering the physiologically challenging conditions that winter presents. Moreover, our findings emphasize that climate change and winter-related constraints on organisms will intersect with other stressors to potentially magnify threats and further complicate management. Though conservation and management practices are less commonly considered during the winter season, we identified several potential or already realized applications relevant to winter that could be beneficial. Many of the examples are quite recent, suggesting a potential turning point for applied winter biology. This growing body of literature is promising but we submit that more research is needed to identify and address threats to wintering biota for targeted and proactive conservation. We suggest that management decisions consider the importance of winter and incorporate winter specific strategies for holistic and mechanistic conservation and resource management.

Environmental Drivers of Amphibian Breeding Phenology across Multiple Sites

A mechanistic understanding of phenology, the seasonal timing of life history events, is important for understanding species’ interactions and the potential responses of ecological communities to a rapidly changing climate. We present analysis of a seven-year dataset on the breeding phenology of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica), tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum), blue-spotted salamanders (Ambystoma laterale), and associated unisexual Ambystoma salamanders from six wetlands in Southeast Michigan, USA. We assess whether the ordinal date of breeding migrations varies among species, sexes, and individual wetlands, and we describe the specific environmental conditions associated with breeding migrations for each species/sex. Breeding date was significantly affected by species/sex identity, year, wetland, and the interactions between species/sex and year as well as wetland and year. There was a great deal of variation among years, with breeding occurring nearly synchronously among groups in some years but widely spaced between groups in other years. Specific environmental triggers for movement varied for each species and sex and changed as the breeding season progressed. In general, salamanders responded to longer temperature lags (more warmer days in a row) than wood frogs, whereas wood frogs required longer precipitation lags (more rainy days in a row) than salamanders. Wood frogs were more likely to migrate around the time of a new moon, whereas in contrast, Ambystoma salamander migration was not associated with a moon phase. Ordinal day was an important factor in all models, suggesting that these amphibians require a latency period or similar mechanism to avoid breeding too early in the year, even when weather conditions appear favorable. Male wood frogs migrated earlier than female wood frogs, and male blue-spotted salamanders migrated earlier than female A. laterale and associated unisexual females. Larger unisexual salamanders migrated earlier than smaller individuals. Differences in species’ responses to environmental cues led to wood frogs and A. laterale breeding later than tiger salamanders in colder years but not in warmer years. This suggests that, as the climate warms, wood frog and A. laterale larvae may experience less predation from tiger salamander larvae due to reduced size differences when they breed simultaneously. Our study is one of few to describe the proximate drivers of amphibian breeding migrations across multiple species, wetlands, and years, and it can inform models predicting how climate change may shift ecological interactions among pond-breeding amphibian species.

Climate Change Alters Sexual Signaling in a Desert-Adapted Frog

AbstractClimate change is altering species' habitats, phenology, and behavior. Although sexual behaviors impact population persistence and fitness, climate change's effects on sexual signals are understudied. Climate change can directly alter temperature-dependent sexual signals, cause changes in body size or condition that affect signal production, or alter the selective landscape of sexual signals. We tested whether temperature-dependent mating calls of Mexican spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata) had changed in concert with climate in the southwestern United States across 22 years. We document increasing air temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and changing seasonal patterns of temperature and rainfall in the spadefoots' habitat. Despite increasing air temperatures, spadefoots' ephemeral breeding ponds have been getting colder at most elevations, and male calls have been slowing as a result. However, temperature-standardized call characters have become faster, and male condition has increased, possibly due to changes in the selective environment. Thus, climate change might generate rapid, complex changes in sexual signals with important evolutionary consequences.

Sex Determination and Ovarian Development in Reptiles and Amphibians: From Genetic Pathways to Environmental Influences

BACKGROUND

Reptiles and amphibians provide untapped potential for discovering how a diversity of genetic pathways and environmental conditions are incorporated into developmental processes that can lead to similar functional outcomes. These groups display a multitude of reproductive strategies, and whereas many attributes are conserved within groups and even across vertebrates, several aspects of sexual development show considerable variation.

SUMMARY

In this review, we focus our attention on the development of the reptilian and amphibian ovary. First, we review and describe the events leading to ovarian development, including sex determination and ovarian maturation, through a comparative lens. We then describe how these events are influenced by environmental factors, focusing on temperature and exposure to anthropogenic chemicals. Lastly, we identify critical knowledge gaps and future research directions that will be crucial to moving forward in our understanding of ovarian development and the influences of the environment in reptiles and amphibians.

KEY MESSAGES

Reptiles and amphibians provide excellent models for understanding the diversity of sex determination strategies and reproductive development. However, a greater understanding of the basic biology of these systems is necessary for deciphering the adaptive and potentially disruptive implications of embryo-by-environment interactions in a rapidly changing world.

A quantitative synthesis of and predictive framework for studying winter warming effects in reptiles

Increases in temperature related to global warming have important implications for organismal fitness. For ectotherms inhabiting temperate regions, ‘winter warming’ is likely to be a key source of the thermal variation experienced in future years. Studies focusing on the active season predict largely positive responses to warming in the reptiles; however, overlooking potentially deleterious consequences of warming during the inactive season could lead to biased assessments of climate change vulnerability. Here, we review the overwinter ecology of reptiles, and test specific predictions about the effects of warming winters, by performing a meta-analysis of all studies testing winter warming effects on reptile traits to date. We collated information from observational studies measuring responses to natural variation in temperature in more than one winter season, and experimental studies which manipulated ambient temperature during the winter season. Available evidence supports that most reptiles will advance phenologies with rising winter temperatures, which could positively affect fitness by prolonging the active season although effects of these shifts are poorly understood. Conversely, evidence for shifts in survivorship and body condition in response to warming winters was equivocal, with disruptions to biological rhythms potentially leading to unforeseen fitness ramifications. Our results suggest that the effects of warming winters on reptile species are likely to be important but highlight the need for more data and greater integration of experimental and observational approaches. To improve future understanding, we recap major knowledge gaps in the published literature of winter warming effects in reptiles and outline a framework for future research.

Variable temperature regimes and wetland salinity reduce performance of juvenile wood frogs

On a changing planet, amphibians must respond to weather events shifting in frequency and magnitude, and to how those temperature and precipitation changes interact with other anthropogenic disturbances that modify amphibian habitat. To understand how drastic changes in environmental conditions affect wood frog tadpoles, we tested five temperature manipulations, including Ambient (water temperatures tracking daily air temperatures), Elevated (+ 3 °C above ambient), Nightly (removal of nightly lows), Spike (+ 6 °C above ambient every third week), and Flux (alternating ambient and + 3 °C weekly) crossed with Low Salt (specific conductivity: 109-207 µS-cm) and High Salt (1900-2000 µS-cm). We replicated each of the ten resulting treatments four times. High-salinity conditions produced larger metamorphs than low-salinity conditions. Tadpole survival was reduced only by the Spike treatment (P = 0.017). Elevated temperatures did not shorten larval periods; time to metamorphosis did not differ among temperature treatments (P = 0.328). We retained 135 recently metamorphosed frogs in outdoor terrestrial enclosures for 10 months to investigate larval environment carryover effects. Juvenile frogs grew larger in low-density terrestrial enclosures than high density (P = 0.015) and frogs from Ambient Low Salt larval conditions grew and survived better than frogs from manipulated larval conditions. Frogs from High Salt larval conditions had lower survival than frogs from Low Salt conditions. Our results suggest that anthropogenic disturbances to larval environmental conditions can affect both larval and post-metamorphic individuals, with detrimental carryover effects of high-salinity larval conditions not emerging until the juvenile life stage.

Saprolegniosis in Amphibians: An Integrated Overview of a Fluffy Killer Disease

Amphibians constitute the class of vertebrates with the highest proportion of threatened species, with infectious diseases being considered among the greatest causes for their worldwide decline. Aquatic oomycetes, known as “water molds,” are fungus-like microorganisms that are ubiquitous in freshwater ecosystems and are capable of causing disease in a broad range of amphibian hosts. Various species of Achlya sp., Leptolegnia sp., Aphanomyces sp., and mainly, Saprolegnia sp., are responsible for mass die-offs in the early developmental stages of a wide range of amphibian populations through a disease known as saprolegniosis, aka, molding or a “Saprolegnia-like infection.” In this context, the main objective of the present review was to bring together updated information about saprolegniosis in amphibians to integrate existing knowledge, identify current knowledge gaps, and suggest future directions within the saprolegniosis–amphibian research field. Based on the available literature and data, an integrated and critical interpretation of the results is discussed. Furthermore, the occurrence of saprolegniosis in natural and laboratory contexts and the factors that influence both pathogen incidence and host susceptibility are also addressed. The focus of this work was the species Saprolegnia sp., due to its ecological importance on amphibian population dynamics and due to the fact that this is the most reported genera to be associated with saprolegniosis in amphibians. In addition, integrated emerging therapies, and their potential application to treat saprolegniosis in amphibians, were evaluated, and future actions are suggested.

Temperature and nutrient conditions modify the effects of phenological shifts in predator-prey communities

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different across systems: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival in the dragonfly-leopard frog system, while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late in the salamander-bronze frog system. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

Asynchrony, density dependence, and persistence in an amphibian

Understanding drivers of metapopulation dynamics remains a critical challenge for ecology and conservation. In particular, the degree of synchrony in metapopulation dynamics determines how resilient a metapopulation is to a widespread disturbance. In this study, we used 21 years of egg mass count data across 64 nonpermanent freshwater ponds in Connecticut, USA to evaluate patterns of abundance and growth and to assess regional as well as local factors in shaping the population dynamics of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica = Lithobates sylvaticus). In particular, we asked whether a species known to undergo metapopulation dynamics exhibited spatial synchrony in abundances. With the exception of a single year when breeding took place during severe drought conditions, our analyses revealed no evidence of synchrony despite close proximity (mean minimum distance <300 m) of breeding ponds across the 3213 ha study area. Instead, local, pond-scale conditions best predicted patterns of abundance and population growth rate. We found negative density dependence on population growth rate within ponds as well as evidence that larger neighboring pond populations had a negative effect on focal ponds. Beyond density, pond depth was a critical predictor; deeper ponds supported larger populations. Drought conditions and warm winters negatively affected populations. Overall, breeding ponds vary in critical ways that either support larger, more persistent populations or smaller populations that are not represented by breeding pairs in some years. The infrequency of spatial synchrony in this system is surprising and suggests greater resilience to stressors than would have been expected if dynamics were strongly synchronized. More generally, understanding the characteristics of systems that determine synchronous population dynamics will be critical to predicting which species are more or less resilient to widespread disturbances like land conversion or climate change.

Climate-associated decline of body condition in a fossorial salamander

Temperate ectotherms have responded to recent environmental change, likely due to the direct and indirect effects of temperature on key life cycle events. Yet, a substantial number of ectotherms are fossorial, spending the vast majority of their lives in subterranean microhabitats that are assumed to be buffered against environmental change. Here, we examine whether seasonal climatic conditions influence body condition (a measure of general health and vigor), reproductive output, and breeding phenology in a northern population of fossorial salamander (Spotted Salamander, Ambystoma maculatum). We found that breeding body condition declined over a 12-year monitoring period (2008-2019) with warmer summer and autumn temperatures at least partly responsible for the observed decline in body condition. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated metabolism drives the negative association between temperature and condition. Population-level reproduction, assessed via egg mass counts, showed high interannual variation and was weakly influenced by autumn temperatures. Salamander breeding phenology was strongly correlated with lake ice melt but showed no long-term temporal trend (1986-2019). Climatic warming in the region, which has been and is forecasted to be strongest in the summer and autumn, is predicted to lead to a 5%-27% decline in salamander body condition under realistic near-future climate scenarios. Although the subterranean environment offers a thermal buffer, the observed decline in condition and relatively strong effect of summer temperature on body condition suggest that fossorial salamanders are sensitive to the effects of a warming climate. Given the diversity of fossorial taxa, heightened attention to the vulnerability of subterranean microhabitat refugia and their inhabitants is warranted amid global climatic change.

Microclimate-driven trends in spring-emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential "climate trap"?

Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a "climate trap"-a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re-emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring-emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below- and near-ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree-hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring-emergence timing. Trends in annual-emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post-emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this "climate trap" was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.

Environmental Thermal Stress Induces Neuronal Cell Death and Developmental Malformations in Reptiles

Every stage of organismal life history is being challenged by global warming. Many species are already experiencing temperatures approaching their physiological limits; this is particularly true for ectothermic species, such as lizards. Embryos are markedly sensitive to thermal insult. Here, we demonstrate that temperatures currently experienced in natural nesting areas can modify gene expression levels and induce neural and craniofacial malformations in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei. Developmental abnormalities ranged from minor changes in facial structure to significant disruption of anterior face and forebrain. The first several days of postoviposition development are particularly sensitive to this thermal insult. These results raise new concern over the viability of ectothermic species under contemporary climate change. Herein, we propose and test a novel developmental hypothesis that describes the cellular and developmental origins of those malformations: cell death in the developing forebrain and abnormal facial induction due to disrupted Hedgehog signaling. Based on similarities in the embryonic response to thermal stress among distantly related species, we propose that this developmental hypothesis represents a common embryonic response to thermal insult among amniote embryos. Our results emphasize the importance of adopting a broad, multidisciplinary approach that includes both lab and field perspectives when trying to understand the future impacts of anthropogenic change on animal development.

Earlier Snowmelt Advances Breeding Phenology of the Common Frog (Rana temporaria) but Increases the Risk of Frost Exposure and Wetland Drying

The alarming decline of amphibians around the world calls for complementary studies to better understand their responses to climate change. In mountain environments, water resources linked to snowmelt play a major role in allowing amphibians to complete tadpole metamorphosis. As snow cover duration has significantly decreased since the 1970s, amphibian populations could be strongly impacted by climate warming, and even more in high elevation sites where air temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than at low elevation. In this context, we investigated common frog (Rana temporaria) breeding phenology at two different elevations and explored the threats that this species faces in a climate change context. Our objectives were to understand how environmental variables influence the timing of breeding phenology of the common frog, and explore the threats that amphibians face in the context of climate change in mountain areas. To address these questions, we collected 11 years (2009–2019) of data on egg-spawning date, tadpole development stages, snowmelt date, air temperature, rainfall and drying up of wetland pools at ∼1,300 and ∼1,900 m a.s.l. in the French Alps. We found an advancement of the egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at low elevation but a delay at high elevations for both variables. Our results demonstrated a strong positive relationship between egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at both elevations. We also observed that the risk of frost exposure increased faster at high elevation as egg-spawning date advanced than at low elevation, and that drying up of wetland pools led to tadpole mortality at the high elevation site. Within the context of climate change, egg-spawning date is expected to happen earlier in the future and eggs and tadpoles of common frogs may face higher risk of frost exposure, while wetland drying may lead to higher larval mortality. However, population dynamics studies are needed to test these hypotheses and to assess impacts at the population level. Our results highlight climate-related threats to common frog populations in mountain environments, but additional research should be conducted to forecast how climate change may benefit or harm amphibian populations, and inform conservation and land management plans in the future.

Demographic effects of phenological variation in natural populations of two pond-breeding salamanders

Phenology is a key driver of population and community dynamics. Phenological metrics (e.g., first date that an event occurred) often simplify information from the full phenological distribution, which may undermine efforts to determine the importance of life history events. Data regarding full phenological distributions are especially needed as many species are shifting phenology with climatic change which can alter life-history patterns and species dynamics. We tested whether skewness, kurtosis or maximum duration of breeding phenology affected juvenile emigration phenology and survival in natural populations of ringed (Ambystoma annulatum) and spotted salamanders (A. maculatum) spanning a 7-year period at two study locations. We evaluated the relative importance of different phenological metrics in breeding phenology and larval density dependence on emigration phenology and survival. We found that variability in emigration phenology differed by species, with ringed salamanders having a shorter duration and distributions that were more often right-skewed and leptokurtic compared to spotted salamanders. Emigration phenology was not linked to any measure of variability in breeding phenology, indicating phenological variability operates independently across life stages and may be subject to stage-specific influences. Emigration duration and skewness were partially explained by larval density, which demonstrates how phenological distributions may change with species interactions. Further tests that use the full phenological distribution to link variability in timing of life history events to demographic traits such as survival are needed to determine if and how phenological shifts will impact species persistence.

Amphibian breeding phenology influences offspring size and response to a common wetland contaminant

Background

Increases in temperature variability associated with climate change have critical implications for the phenology of wildlife across the globe. For example, warmer winter temperatures can induce forward shifts in breeding phenology across taxa (“false springs”), which can put organisms at risk of freezing conditions during reproduction or vulnerable early life stages. As human activities continue to encroach on natural ecosystems, it is also important to consider how breeding phenology interacts with other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., pollutants). Using 14 populations of a widespread amphibian (wood frog; Rana sylvatica), we compared 1) growth; 2) tolerance to a common wetland contaminant (NaCl); and 3) the ability of tadpoles to acclimate to lethal NaCl exposure following sublethal exposure earlier in life. We evaluated these metrics across two breeding seasons (2018 and 2019) and across populations of tadpoles whose parents differed in breeding phenology (earlier- versus later-breeding cohorts). In both years, the earlier-breeding cohorts completed breeding activity prior to a winter storm and later-breeding cohorts completed breeding activities after a winter storm. The freezing conditions that later-breeding cohorts were exposed to in 2018 were more severe in both magnitude and duration than those in 2019.

Results

In 2018, offspring of the later-breeding cohort were larger but less tolerant of NaCl compared to offspring of the earlier-breeding cohort. The offspring of the earlier-breeding cohort additionally were able to acclimate to a lethal concentration of NaCl following sublethal exposure earlier in life, while the later-breeding cohort became less tolerant of NaCl following acclimation. Interestingly, in 2019, the warmer of the two breeding seasons, we did not detect the negative effects of later breeding phenology on responses to NaCl.

Conclusions

These results suggest that phenological shifts that expose breeding amphibians to freezing conditions can have cascading consequences on offspring mass and ability to tolerate future stressors but likely depends on the severity of the freeze event.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-021-00413-0.

Experimental warming influences species abundances in a Drosophila host community through direct effects on species performance rather than altered competition and parasitism

Global warming is expected to have direct effects on species through their sensitivity to temperature, and also via their biotic interactions, with cascading indirect effects on species, communities, and entire ecosystems. To predict the community-level consequences of global climate change we need to understand the relative roles of both the direct and indirect effects of warming. We used a laboratory experiment to investigate how warming affects a tropical community of three species of Drosophila hosts interacting with two species of parasitoids over a single generation. Our experimental design allowed us to distinguish between the direct effects of temperature on host species performance, and indirect effects through altered biotic interactions (competition among hosts and parasitism by parasitoid wasps). Although experimental warming significantly decreased parasitism for all host-parasitoid pairs, the effects of parasitism and competition on host abundances and host frequencies did not vary across temperatures. Instead, effects on host relative abundances were species-specific, with one host species dominating the community at warmer temperatures, irrespective of parasitism and competition treatments. Our results show that temperature shaped a Drosophila host community directly through differences in species’ thermal performance, and not via its influences on biotic interactions.

Climate effects on nesting phenology in Nebraska turtles

A frequent response of organisms to climate change is altering the timing of reproduction, and advancement of reproductive timing has been a common reaction to warming temperatures in temperate regions. We tested whether this pattern applied to two common North American turtle species over the past three decades in Nebraska, USA. The timing of nesting (either first date or average date) of the Common Snapping Turtle (Chelydra serpentina) was negatively correlated with mean December maximum temperatures of the preceding year and mean May minimum and maximum temperatures in the nesting year and positively correlated with precipitation in July of the previous year. Increased temperatures during the late winter and spring likely permit earlier emergence from hibernation, increased metabolic rates and feeding opportunities, and accelerated vitellogenesis, ovulation, and egg shelling, all of which could drive earlier nesting. However, for the Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta), the timing of nesting was positively correlated with mean minimum temperatures in September, October, December of the previous year, February of the nesting year, and April precipitation. These results suggest warmer fall, and winter temperature may impose an increased metabolic cost to painted turtles that impedes fall vitellogenesis, and April rains may slow the completion of vitellogenesis through decreased basking opportunities. For both species, nest deposition was highly correlated with body size, and larger females nested earlier in the season. Although average annual ambient temperatures have increased over the last four decades of our overall fieldwork at our study site, spring temperatures have not yet increased, and hence, nesting phenology has not advanced at our site for Chelydra. While Chrysemys exhibited a weak trend toward later nesting, this response was likely due to increased recruitment of smaller females into the population due to nest protection and predator control (Procyon lotor) in the early 2000s. Should climate change result in an increase in spring temperatures, nesting phenology would presumably respond accordingly, conditional on body size variation within these populations.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus)

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change

Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum (T_opt ) or critical evaporative water loss (EWL_crit ) limits, with and without shade- or water-seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002-2012), we predict that harmful thermal (>T_opt ) and hydric (>EWL_crit ) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow-free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow-free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding T_opt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding T_opt , critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow-free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow-free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.

A demographic approach to understanding the effects of climate on population growth

Amphibian life history traits are affected by temperature and precipitation. Yet, connecting these relationships to population growth, especially for multiple populations within a species, is lacking and precludes our understanding of amphibian population dynamics and distributions. Therefore, we constructed integral projection models for five populations along an elevational gradient to determine how climate and season affect population growth of a terrestrial salamander Plethodon montanus and the importance of demographic vital rates to population growth under varying climate scenarios. We found that population growth was typically higher at the highest elevation compared to the lower elevations, whereas varying inactive season conditions, represented by the late fall, winter and early spring, produced a greater variation in population growth than varying active season conditions (late spring, summer, and early fall). Furthermore, survival and growth were consistently more important, as measured by elasticity, compared to fecundity, and large females had the greatest elasticity compared to all other body sizes. Our results suggest that changing inactive season conditions, especially those that would affect the survival of large individuals, may have the greatest impact on population growth. We recommend future experimental studies focus on the inactive season to better elucidate the mechanisms by which these conditions can affect survival.

Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts

Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.

Full lifetime perspectives on the costs and benefits of lay-date variation in tree swallows

Animals must balance various costs and benefits when deciding when to breed. The costs and benefits of breeding at different times have received much attention, but most studies have been limited to investigating short-term season-to-season fitness effects. However, breeding early, versus late, in a season may influence lifetime fitness over many years, trading off in complex ways across the breeder's lifespan. In this study, we examined the complete life histories of 867 female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding in Ithaca, New York, between 2002 and 2016. Earlier breeders outperformed later breeders in short-term measures of reproductive output and offspring quality. Though there were weak indications that females paid long-term future survival costs for breeding early, lifetime fledgling output was markedly higher overall in early-breeding birds. Importantly, older females breeding later in the season did not experience compensating life history advantages that suggested an alternative equal-fitness breeding strategy. Rather, most or all of the swallows appear to be breeding as early as they can, and differences in lay dates appear to be determined primarily by differences in individual quality or condition. Lay date had a significant repeatability across breeding attempts by the same female, and the first lay date of females fledged in our population was strongly influenced by the first lay date of their mothers, indicating the potential for ongoing selection on lay date. By examining performance over the entire lifespan of a large number of individuals, we were able to clarify the relationship between timing of breeding and fitness and gain new insight into the sources of variability in this important life history trait.

Inferring responses to climate warming from latitudinal pattern of clonal hybridization

Climate warming may affect reproductive isolation between sympatric sister species by modifying reproductive phenology or mate choice. This is expected to result in a latitudinal progression of hybridization in response to the shifting of environmental conditions. The fish species northern redbelly dace (Chrosomus eos) and finescale dace (C. neogaeus) display a wide sympatric distribution in North America. The asexual reproduction of their hybrids allows determining where and when hybridization occurred. The aim of this study was twofold: first, to assess whether temperature affected reproductive isolation, and second, whether the effects of climate warming resulted in a latitudinal progression of hybridization. We performed a 500 km latitudinal survey (51 sites) in southeastern Quebec (Canada) and determined the distribution of clonal hybrid lineages. Results revealed a total of 78 hybrid lineages, including 70 which originated locally. We detected a significant difference between the southern and northern range of the survey in terms of the proportion of sites harboring local hybrids (20/23 vs. 8/28 sites, respectively) and hybrid diversity (57 vs. 13 lineages, respectively). This confirmed that there was more frequent interspecific mating in the warmest sites. In the southern range, diversity of lineages and simulations suggest that hybridization first took place (>7,000 years) in sites characterized by a longer growing season, followed by northerly adjacent sites (ca. 3,500-5,000 years). Moreover, evidence of hybridization occurring in present-day time was detected. This suggests that the current warming episode is going beyond the limits of the previous warmest period of the Holocene.

Fluctuations in population abundance in two anurans from Central Serbia

We monitored the population size of the agile frog (Ranadalmatina) and the common toad (Bufobufo) from 2011 or 2012, respectively, to the year 2017 at a syntopic breeding site in the vicinity of Belgrade. Adult R.dalmatina population size had minor fluctuations during the years of study (from 351 to 108 frogs). On the contrary, the adult B.bufo population was widely fluctuating towards decline (from 1158 to 141 toads). In both species, population fluctuations were not significantly related to variation of meteorological parameters (air temperature, humidity, precipitation). Density dependence effects on population size were not detected in either species. Apart from possible effects of climate change, the indicated trend towards decline of the monitored B.bufo population could also be the outcome of common population fluctuations or of increasing anthropogenic impact (vicinity of settlement and agricultural land). More years of monitoring more than one population are required to obtain precise information. Nevertheless, our results seem to be coherent with other studies that recommend conservation action for this species.

Native amphibian larvae exhibit higher upper thermal limits but lower performance than their introduced predator Gambusia affinis

Information on the thermal limits and physiology of ectothermic amphibians is crucial to our understanding of their ecology in the natural environment, particularly with predicted global changes in climate. We documented the thermal limits of larvae of three amphibian species native to Hong Kong, and their introduced, invasive predator, the mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis). We then used larvae of the brown tree frog Polypedates megacephalus as a model amphibian to further investigate growth, oxygen consumption rate and heat shock protein expression with changes in thermal regime. We found that G. affinis was the most tolerant of low temperatures but also the least tolerant of high temperatures. Despite the higher thermal tolerance of the amphibian larvae, further investigation on P. megacephalus demonstrated that optimal temperatures for physiological performance fall within a range of 18.0-21.6 °C, which is far lower than its upper thermal limit, implying that thermal stress occurs during part of the larval stage under natural environmental conditions. This could mean a reduction in their capacity to deal with other stressors such as pollution and predators, and that G. affinis may have an advantage over native amphibians.

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

The effects of different cold-temperature regimes on development, growth, and susceptibility to an abiotic and biotic stressor

Global climate change is expected to both increase average temperatures as well as temperature variability.Increased average temperatures have led to earlier breeding in many spring-breeding organisms. However, individuals breeding earlier will also face increased temperature fluctuations, including exposure to potentially harmful cold-temperature regimes during early developmental stages.Using a model spring-breeding amphibian, we investigated how embryonic exposure to different cold-temperature regimes (control, cold-pulse, and cold-press) affected (a) compensatory larval development and growth, (b) larval susceptibility to a common contaminant, and (c) larval susceptibility to parasites.We found: (a) no evidence of compensatory development or growth, (b) larvae exposed to the cold-press treatment were more susceptible to NaCl at 4-days post-hatching but recovered by 17-days post-hatching, and (c) larvae exposed to both cold treatments were less susceptible to parasites.These results demonstrate that variation in cold-temperature regimes can lead to unique direct and indirect effects on larval growth, development, and response to stressors. This underscores the importance of considering cold-temperature variability and not just increased average temperatures when examining the impacts of climate disruption.

Warming-induced shifts in amphibian phenology and behavior lead to altered predator-prey dynamics

Climate change-induced phenological variation in amphibians can disrupt time-sensitive processes such as breeding, hatching, and metamorphosis, and can consequently alter size-dependent interactions such as predation. Temperature can further alter size-dependent, predator-prey relationships through changes in species' behavior. We thus hypothesized that phenological shifts due to climate warming would alter the predator-prey dynamic in a larval amphibian community through changes in body size and behavior of both the predator and prey. We utilized an amphibian predator-prey system common to the montane wetlands of the U.S. Pacific Northwest: the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and its anuran prey, the Pacific chorus frog (Pseudacris regilla). We conducted predation trials to test if changes in predator phenology and environmental temperature influence predation success. We simulated predator phenological shifts using different size classes of the long-toed salamander representing an earlier onset of breeding while using spring temperatures corresponding to early and mid-season larval rearing conditions. Our results indicated that the predator-prey dynamic was highly dependent upon predator phenology and temperature, and both acted synergistically. Increased size asymmetry resulted in higher tadpole predation rates and tadpole tail damage. Both predators and prey altered activity and locomotor performance in warmer treatments. Consequently, behavioral modifications resulted in decreased survival rates of tadpoles in the presence of large salamander larvae. If predators shift to breed disproportionately earlier than prey due to climate warming, this has the potential to negatively impact tadpole populations in high-elevation amphibian assemblages through changes in predation rates mediated by behavior.

Resilience to climate variation in a spatially structured amphibian population

Understanding the impact of weather fluctuations on demographic parameters is of crucial interest to biodiversity research in a context of global climate change. Amphibians are valuable candidates for investigating this topic due to their strong physiological dependence on water availability and temperature. In this study, we took advantage of data from a long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) monitoring program of a great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) population inhabiting a 12-pond archipelago in southeastern France. We investigated the interactions between vital rates (survival and recruitment), the internal structure of the population, and climatic variables both at a local and a regional (North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO) scale. Overall, we found a weak relationship between climatic variables and the survival of large-bodied newts. The only strong relationship was found to be a high NAO index during the post-breeding period, suggesting that dry, hot summers negatively impact survival. In terms of recruitment, the results indicated that hot weather during the activity period had delayed deleterious effects on adult recruitment two years later, suggesting high larval and juvenile mortality due to unsuitable growing conditions. Recruitment was also impacted by a high NAO index during the overwintering period preceding recruitment, suggesting that mild weather increases the mortality of juveniles, probably by enhancing the depletion of energy reserves without any possibility of refueling.

Transgenerational effects and impact of compensatory responses to changes in breeding phenology on antipredator defenses

As organisms living in temperate environments often have only a short time window for growth and reproduction, their life-history strategies are expected to be influenced by these time constraints. Parents may alter the pace of offspring life-history as a response to changes in breeding phenology. However, the responses to changes in time constraints must be balanced with those against other stressors, such as predation, one of the strongest and more ubiquitous selective factors in nature. Here, after experimentally modifying the timing of breeding and hatching in the moor frog (Rana arvalis), we studied how compensatory responses to delayed breeding and hatching affect antipredator strategies in amphibian larvae. We examined the activity patterns, morphology and life-history responses in tadpoles exposed to different combinations of breeding and hatching delays in the presence and absence of predators. We found clear evidence of adaptive transgenerational effects since tadpoles from delayed breeding treatments increased growth and development independently of predation risk. The presence of predators reduced tadpole activity, tadpoles from delayed breeding treatments maintaining lower activity than non-delayed ones also in the absence of predators. Tadpoles reared with predators developed deeper tails and bodies, however, tadpoles from breeding delay treatments had reduced morphological defenses as compared to non-delayed individuals. No significant effects of hatching delay were detected in this study. Our study reveals that amphibian larvae exposed to breeding delay develop compensatory life-history responses even under predation risk, but these responses trade-off with the development of morphological antipredator defenses. These results suggest that under strong time constraints organisms are selected to develop fast growth and development responses, and rely on lower activity rates as their main antipredator defense. Examining how responses to changes in phenology affect species interactions is highly relevant for better understanding ecological responses to climate change.

Altered spring phenology of North American freshwater turtles and the importance of representative populations

Globally, populations of diverse taxa have altered phenology in response to climate change. However, most research has focused on a single population of a given taxon, which may be unrepresentative for comparative analyses, and few long-term studies of phenology in ectothermic amniotes have been published. We test for climate-altered phenology using long-term studies (10-36 years) of nesting behavior in 14 populations representing six genera of freshwater turtles (Chelydra, Chrysemys, Kinosternon, Malaclemys, Sternotherus, and Trachemys). Nesting season initiation occurs earlier in more recent years, with 11 of the populations advancing phenology. The onset of nesting for nearly all populations correlated well with temperatures during the month preceding nesting. Still, certain populations of some species have not advanced phenology as might be expected from global patterns of climate change. This collection of findings suggests a proximate link between local climate and reproduction that is potentially caused by variation in spring emergence from hibernation, ability to process food, and thermoregulatory opportunities prior to nesting. However, even though all species had populations with at least some evidence of phenological advancement, geographic variation in phenology within and among turtle species underscores the critical importance of representative data for accurate comprehensive assessments of the biotic impacts of climate change.

Exposure to the antifouling chemical medetomidine slows development, reduces body mass, and delays metamorphosis in wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) tadpoles

Antifouling chemicals have a long history of causing toxicity to aquatic organisms. We measured growth and developmental timing in wood frog tadpoles exposed to the antifouling chemical medetomidine (10 nM-10 μM) starting at two different developmental stages in static renewal experiments. For tadpoles hatched from egg masses and exposed for 3 weeks to 100 nM and 1 μM, head width/total body length ratio was significantly shorter compared to control. For field-collected tadpoles at Gosner stage 24-25 and exposed for 2 weeks, 1 and 10 μM medetomidine significantly slowed development as measured by Gosner stage. Medetomidine (1 and 10 μM) significantly increased the time to metamorphosis by over 16 days on average, and at 100 nM and 1 μM, it significantly decreased mass at metamorphosis. We discuss the possible effects of antifouling chemicals containing medetomidine on globally threatened groups such as amphibians.

Microgeographic morphological variation across larval wood frog populations associated with environment despite gene flow

Gene flow has historically been thought to constrain local adaptation; yet, recent research suggests that populations can diverge despite exchanging genes. Here I use a common garden experiment to assess the combined effects of gene flow and natural selection on morphological variation of 16 wood frog (Rana sylvatica) populations, a species known to experience divergent selection pressures in open- and closed-canopy ponds across relatively small geographic scales. Wood frog tadpoles from different ponds showed significant morphological variation associated with canopy type with a trade-off between tail length and body depth consistent with previous research. In contrast, neutral genetic differentiation of nine microsatellite loci as measured by Jost's D was not associated with canopy type, indicating no pattern of isolation by environment. Genetic structure analyses indicated some substructure across the 16 ponds (K = 4); however, three out of four assigned clusters included both open- and closed-canopy ponds. Together, these results suggest that morphological divergence among these wood frog populations is occurring despite gene flow and that selection within these environments is strong. Furthermore, morphological variation among ponds differed across two sampling periods during larval development, demonstrating the importance of evaluating phenotypic divergence over multiple time periods and at a time relevant to the processes being studied.

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species' distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species' climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species' climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina)

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog (Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.