1
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Montràs-Janer T, Suggitt AJ, Fox R, Jönsson M, Martay B, Roy DB, Walker KJ, Auffret AG. Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:739-751. [PMID: 38347088 PMCID: PMC11009105 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02326-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to investigate the patterns and causes of biodiversity change in Great Britain. We show that anthropogenic climate change and land conversion have broadly led to increased richness, biotic homogenization and warmer-adapted communities of British birds, butterflies and plants over the long term (50+ years) and short term (20 years). Biodiversity change was found to be largely determined by baseline environmental conditions of land use and climate, especially over shorter timescales, suggesting that biodiversity change in recent periods could reflect an inertia derived from past environmental changes. Climate-land-use interactions were mostly related to long-term change in species richness and beta diversity across taxa. Semi-natural grasslands (in a broad sense, including meadows, pastures, lowland and upland heathlands and open wetlands) were associated with lower rates of biodiversity change, while their contribution to national-level biodiversity doubled over the long term. Our findings highlight the need to protect and restore natural and semi-natural habitats, alongside a fuller consideration of individual species' requirements beyond simple measures of species richness in biodiversity management and policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teresa Montràs-Janer
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Andrew J Suggitt
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | | | - Mari Jönsson
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - David B Roy
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
| | | | - Alistair G Auffret
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
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2
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Zhao Q, Devries JH, Clark RG, Weegman MD. Causes and consequences of demography in continent-scale, full-annual-cycle population dynamics under global change. Glob Ecol Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023] Open
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3
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Lajeunesse A, Fourcade Y. Temporal analysis of GBIF data reveals the restructuring of communities following climate change. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:391-402. [PMID: 36453016 PMCID: PMC10107267 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
Multiple studies revealed an effect of climate change on biodiversity by investigating long-term changes in species distributions and community composition. However, many taxa do not benefit from systematic long-term monitoring programmes, leaving gaps in our current knowledge of climate-induced community turnover. We used data extracted from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to characterize community reorganization under climate change for nine animal taxonomic groups (ants, bats, bees, birds, butterflies, earthworms, frogs, rodents and salamanders), which, for most of them, had never been studied before in this regard. Using a presence-only community temperature index (CTI), reflecting the relative proportion of warm- and cold-adapted species, we tested whether and how species' assemblages were affected by climate change over the last 30 years. Across Europe and North America, we observed an average increase in CTI, consistent with a gradual species turnover driven by climate change. At the local scale, we could observe that the composition of most species assemblages changed according to temperature variations. However, this change in composition always occurred with a lag compared to climate change, suggesting that communities are experiencing a climatic debt. Results suggest that anthropization may play a role in the decoupling between the change in CTI and the change in local temperature. The results of our study highlight an overall thermophilization of assemblages as a response of temperature warming. We demonstrated that this response may exist for a large range of understudied terrestrial animals, and we introduced a framework that can be used in a broader context, opening new opportunities for global change research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armelle Lajeunesse
- Univ Paris Est Creteil, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Cité, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnementm IEES, Créteil, France
| | - Yoan Fourcade
- Univ Paris Est Creteil, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Cité, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnementm IEES, Créteil, France
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4
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Girish KS, Srinivasan U. Community science data provide evidence for upward elevational range shifts by Eastern Himalayan birds. Biotropica 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.13133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Umesh Srinivasan
- Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore India
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5
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Hellegers M, van Swaay CAM, van Hinsberg A, Huijbregts MAJ, Schipper AM. Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.873366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.
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6
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Doxa A, Kamarianakis Y, Mazaris AD. Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2413-2424. [PMID: 34981617 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Revised: 11/24/2021] [Accepted: 12/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate plays a major role in shaping biodiversity patterns over time and space, with ongoing changes leading to the reorganization of ecosystems, which challenges conservation initiatives. Identifying areas that could serve as possible climate change refugia for future biodiversity is, thus, critical for both conservation and management. Here, we identify potential future climatic refugia within the Euro-Mediterranean biome, which is a global biodiversity hotspot, while accounting for multiple emission climate change projections over the next 50 years. We developed two metrics of climatic variability: temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We then used a systematic conservation planning approach to identify climate-based priority areas. While we used a climate-based, species-neutral methodology, we deliberately implemented low climatic velocity thresholds, so that the identified climatic refugia would even be compatible with the needs of species with low dispersal capacity, such as plants. Our projections showed that future climatic refugia would be more frequently observed in mid-altitudes, for gradients with steep elevations, and mainly in the eastern part of the Euro-Mediterranean biome, with possible conflicts with existing land uses and future conservation implications. Climatic, land use, and topography results indicated that only a limited number of refugia would be hosted by high elevation habitats (>1500 m), raising possible concerns about the biodiversity of Mediterranean mountain regions. Our analyses show that the current network of protected areas captures future climatic refugia disproportionally, despite their importance for safeguarding present and future biodiversity in the Mediterranean. Key climatic refugia could limit the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity in mid-altitude and mountainous regions, and should be included in management guidelines for a climate-ready conservation design in the Mediterranean biome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aggeliki Doxa
- Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), Heraklion, Crete, Greece
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Yiannis Kamarianakis
- Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Antonios D Mazaris
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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7
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Fu H, Gaüzère P, García Molinos J, Zhang P, Zhang H, Zhang M, Niu Y, Yu H, Brown LE, Xu J. Mitigation of urbanization effects on aquatic ecosystems by synchronous ecological restoration. WATER RESEARCH 2021; 204:117587. [PMID: 34482096 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2021.117587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Revised: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss have been caused by economic booms in developing countries over recent decades. In response, ecosystem restoration projects have been advanced in some countries but the effectiveness of different approaches and indicators at large spatio-temporal scales (i.e., whole catchments) remains poorly understood. This study assessed the effectiveness of a diverse array of 440 aquatic restoration projects including wastewater treatment, constructed wetlands, plant/algae salvage and dredging of contaminated sediments implemented and maintained from 2007 to 2017 across more than 2000 km2 of the northwest Taihu basin (Yixing, China). Synchronized investigations of water quality and invertebrate communities were conducted before and after restoration. Our analysis showed that even though there was rapid urbanization at this time, nutrient concentrations (NH4+-N, TN, TP) and biological indices of benthic invertebrate (taxonomic richness, Shannon diversity, sensitive taxon density) improved significantly across most of the study area. Improvements were associated with the type of restoration project, with projects targeting pollution-sources leading to the clearest ecosystem responses compared with those remediating pollution sinks. However, in some locations, the recovery of biotic communities appears to lag behind nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus), likely reflecting long-distance re-colonization routes for invertebrates given the level of pre-restoration degradation of the catchment. Overall, the study suggests that ecological damage caused by recent rapid economic development in China could potentially be mitigated by massive restoration investments synchronized across whole catchments, although these effects could be expected to be enhanced if urbanization rates were reduced at the same time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Fu
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.7 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, PR China; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, PR China
| | - Pierre Gaüzère
- Macrosystems ecology lab, School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Phoenix, United States
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Centre, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
| | - Peiyu Zhang
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.7 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, PR China
| | - Huan Zhang
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.7 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, PR China
| | - Min Zhang
- College of Fisheries, Hubei Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Pond Aquaculture, Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Centre of Hubei Province, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, PR China.
| | - Yuan Niu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration, Institute of Lake Environment and Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR China
| | - Hui Yu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration, Institute of Lake Environment and Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR China
| | - Lee E Brown
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; Water@leeds, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom
| | - Jun Xu
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.7 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, PR China; State Key laboratory of Marine Resource Utilization in South China Sea, Hainan University, Haikou, PR China.
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8
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Gaüzère P, Devictor V. Mismatches between birds' spatial and temporal dynamics reflect their delayed response to global changes. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.08289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Gaüzère
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine Grenoble France
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9
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Duchenne F, Martin G, Porcher E. European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1178-1186. [PMID: 33750013 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.
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Affiliation(s)
- François Duchenne
- Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences of Paris, (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Université Paris Est Créteil, INRA, IRD), Paris, France.,Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation, (Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université), Paris, France.,Laboratoire Cogitamus, Paris, France
| | - Gabrielle Martin
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation, (Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université), Paris, France.,Laboratoire Cogitamus, Paris, France
| | - Emmanuelle Porcher
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation, (Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université), Paris, France.,Laboratoire Cogitamus, Paris, France
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10
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Fourcade Y, WallisDeVries MF, Kuussaari M, van Swaay CAM, Heliölä J, Öckinger E. Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:950-957. [PMID: 33694308 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoan Fourcade
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.,Univ Paris Est Creteil, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement, IEES, Creteil, F-94010, France
| | - Michiel F WallisDeVries
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands.,Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Chris A M van Swaay
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Erik Öckinger
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
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11
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Vaughan IP, Gotelli NJ. Using Climatic Credits to Pay the Climatic Debt. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 36:104-112. [PMID: 33129587 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Revised: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian P Vaughan
- School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
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12
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Iknayan KJ, Beissinger SR. In transition: Avian biogeographic responses to a century of climate change across desert biomes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3268-3284. [PMID: 32027429 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2019] [Revised: 11/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/11/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east-west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier and warmer tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelly J Iknayan
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Steven R Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
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13
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Burrows MT, Hawkins SJ, Moore JJ, Adams L, Sugden H, Firth L, Mieszkowska N. Global-scale species distributions predict temperature-related changes in species composition of rocky shore communities in Britain. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2093-2105. [PMID: 31859400 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2019] [Revised: 11/29/2019] [Accepted: 12/01/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Changes in rocky shore community composition as responses to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic warming can be shown by changes in average species thermal affinities. In this study, we derived thermal affinities for European Atlantic rocky intertidal species by matching their known distributions to patterns in average annual sea surface temperature. Average thermal affinities (the Community Temperature Index, CTI) tracked patterns in sea surface temperature from Portugal to Norway, but CTI for communities of macroalgae and plant species changed less than those composed of animal species. This reduced response was in line with the expectation that communities with a smaller range of thermal affinities among species would change less in composition along thermal gradients and over time. Local-scale patterns in CTI over wave exposure gradients suggested that canopy macroalgae allow species with ranges centred in cooler than local temperatures ('cold-affinity') to persist in otherwise too-warm conditions. In annual surveys of rocky shores, communities of animal species in Shetland showed a shift in dominance towards warm-affinity species ('thermophilization') with local warming from 1980 to 2018 but the community of plant and macroalgal species did not. From 2002 to 2018, communities in southwest Britain showed the reverse trend in CTI: declining average thermal affinities over a period of modest temperature decline. Despite the cooling, trends in species abundance were in line with the general mechanism of direction and magnitude of long-term trends depending on the difference between species thermal affinities and local temperatures. Cold-affinity species increased during cooling and warm-affinity ones decreased. The consistency of responses across different communities and with general expectations based on species thermal characteristics suggests strong predictive accuracy of responses of community composition to anthropogenic warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Stephen J Hawkins
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
- Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, UK
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
| | - J Jon Moore
- Aquatic Survey and Monitoring Ltd., Cosheston, UK
| | - Leoni Adams
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
- Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, UK
| | - Heather Sugden
- The Dove Marine Laboratory, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Cullercoats, UK
| | - Louise Firth
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
| | - Nova Mieszkowska
- Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, UK
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
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14
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Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds? DIVERSITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/d12020056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increased attention is being paid to the ecological drivers and conservation measures which could mitigate climate change-induced pressures for species survival, potentially helping populations to remain in their present-day locations longer. One important buffering mechanism against climate change may be provided by the heterogeneity in topography and consequent local climate conditions. However, the buffering capacity of this topoclimate has so far been insufficiently studied based on empirical survey data across multiple sites and species. Here, we studied whether the fine-grained air temperature variation of protected areas (PAs) affects the population changes of declining northern forest bird species. Importantly to our study, in PAs harmful land use, such as logging, is not allowed, enabling the detection of the effects of temperature buffering, even at relatively moderate levels of topographic variation. Our survey data from 129 PAs located in the boreal zone in Finland show that the density of northern forest species was higher in topographically heterogeneous PAs than in topographically more homogeneous PAs. Moreover, local temperature variation had a significant effect on the density change of northern forest birds from 1981–1999 to 2000–2017, indicating that change in bird density was generally smaller in PAs with higher topographic variation. Thus, we found a clear buffering effect stemming from the local temperature variation of PAs in the population trends of northern forest birds.
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15
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Auffret AG, Thomas CD. Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:4303-4314. [PMID: 31400190 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alistair G Auffret
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Chris D Thomas
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, UK
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16
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Zhao Q, Arnold TW, Devries JH, Howerter DW, Clark RG, Weegman MD. Land‐use change increases climatic vulnerability of migratory birds: Insights from integrated population modelling. J Anim Ecol 2019; 88:1625-1637. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2019] [Accepted: 05/11/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Qing Zhao
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Todd W. Arnold
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - James H. Devries
- Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research Ducks Unlimited Canada Stonewall Manitoba Canada
| | - David W. Howerter
- Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research Ducks Unlimited Canada Stonewall Manitoba Canada
| | - Robert G. Clark
- Prairie and Northern Wildlife Research Centre Environment and Climate Change Canada Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
| | - Mitch D. Weegman
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
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17
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Bátori Z, Vojtkó A, Maák IE, Lőrinczi G, Farkas T, Kántor N, Tanács E, Kiss PJ, Juhász O, Módra G, Tölgyesi C, Erdős L, Aguilon DJ, Keppel G. Karst dolines provide diverse microhabitats for different functional groups in multiple phyla. Sci Rep 2019; 9:7176. [PMID: 31073136 PMCID: PMC6509348 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-43603-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2018] [Accepted: 04/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Fine-scale topographic complexity creates important microclimates that can facilitate species to grow outside their main distributional range and increase biodiversity locally. Enclosed depressions in karst landscapes (‘dolines’) are topographically complex environments which produce microclimates that are drier and warmer (equator-facing slopes) and cooler and moister (pole-facing slopes and depression bottoms) than the surrounding climate. We show that the distribution patterns of functional groups for organisms in two different phyla, Arthropoda (ants) and Tracheophyta (vascular plants), mirror this variation of microclimate. We found that north-facing slopes and bottoms of solution dolines in northern Hungary provided key habitats for ant and plant species associated with cooler and/or moister conditions. Contrarily, south-facing slopes of dolines provided key habitats for species associated with warmer and/or drier conditions. Species occurring on the surrounding plateau were associated with intermediate conditions. We conclude that karst dolines provide a diversity of microclimatic habitats that may facilitate the persistence of taxa with diverse environmental preferences, indicating these dolines to be potential safe havens for multiple phyla under local and global climate oscillations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zoltán Bátori
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.
| | - András Vojtkó
- Department of Botany, Eszterházy Károly University of Applied Sciences, Eszterházy tér 1, H-3300, Eger, Hungary
| | - István Elek Maák
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.,Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza street 64, 00-679, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Gábor Lőrinczi
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Tünde Farkas
- Aggtelek National Park Directorate, Tengerszem oldal 1, H-3758, Jósvafő, Hungary
| | - Noémi Kántor
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Eszter Tanács
- Department of Terrestrial Ecology, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 2-4, H-2163, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Péter János Kiss
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.,Doctoral School of Environmental Sciences, University of Szeged, Rerrich Béla tér 1, H-6720, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Orsolya Juhász
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.,Doctoral School in Biology, Faculty of Science and Informatics, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Gábor Módra
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.,Doctoral School of Environmental Sciences, University of Szeged, Rerrich Béla tér 1, H-6720, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Csaba Tölgyesi
- MTA-DE Functional and Restoration Ecology Research Group, Egyetem tér 1, H-4032, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - László Erdős
- Department of Terrestrial Ecology, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 2-4, H-2163, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Dianne Joy Aguilon
- Department of Ecology, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6726, Szeged, Hungary.,Doctoral School of Environmental Sciences, University of Szeged, Rerrich Béla tér 1, H-6720, Szeged, Hungary.,Department of Forest Biological Sciences, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños, 4031, Laguna, Philippines
| | - Gunnar Keppel
- Natural and Built Environments Research Centre, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, South Australia, 5001, Australia.,Future Industries Institute, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, South Australia, 5001, Australia.,Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography Group, Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, University of Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany
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18
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Vaughan IP, Gotelli NJ. Water quality improvements offset the climatic debt for stream macroinvertebrates over twenty years. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1956. [PMID: 31028258 PMCID: PMC6486586 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09736-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2018] [Accepted: 03/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Many species are accumulating climatic debt as they fail to keep pace with increasing global temperatures. In theory, concomitant decreases in other stressors (e.g. pollution, fragmentation) could offset some warming effects, paying climatic debt with accrued environmental credit. This process may be occurring in many western European rivers. We fit a Markov chain model to ~20,000 macroinvertebrate samples from England and Wales, and demonstrate that despite large temperature increases 1991-2011, macroinvertebrate communities remained close to their predicted equilibrium with environmental conditions. Using a novel analysis of multiple stressors, an accumulated climatic debt of 0.64 (±0.13 standard error) °C of warming was paid by a water-quality credit equivalent to 0.89 (±0.04)°C of cooling. Although there is finite scope for mitigating additional climate warming in this way, water quality improvements appear to have offset recent temperature increases, and the concept of environmental credit may be a useful tool for communicating climate offsetting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian P Vaughan
- Cardiff School of Biosciences and Water Research Institute, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AX, UK.
- Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA.
| | - Nicholas J Gotelli
- Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA
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19
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Advances in Microclimate Ecology Arising from Remote Sensing. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 34:327-341. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2018] [Revised: 12/11/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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20
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Roberts LJ, Burnett R, Tietz J, Veloz S. Recent drought and tree mortality effects on the avian community in southern Sierra Nevada: a glimpse of the future? ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01848. [PMID: 30786092 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 10/31/2018] [Accepted: 12/04/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Birds respond rapidly to changes in both habitat and climate conditions and thus are good indicators of the ecological effects of a changing climate, which may include warmer temperatures, changing habitat conditions, and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events like drought. We investigated how a widespread tree mortality event concurrent with a severe drought influenced the avian community of the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California. We assessed and compared the separate effects of climate stresses and altered habitat conditions on the avian community and used this information to evaluate the changes that are likely to occur in the near future. We built tree mortality maps from freely available Landsat imagery with Google Earth Engine. We analyzed avian point counts from 2010 to 2016 in the southern Sierra Nevada, to model temperature, water deficit, and tree mortality effects on the abundances of 45 bird species, and then used these models to project abundances into the future based on three climate projections. A large portion of the avian community, 47%, had a positive relationship with temperature increase, compared to 20% that responded negatively. More species (36%) declined with drier conditions than increased (29%). More species declined in response to high tree mortality (36%) than increased (9%). A preponderance of species adapted to colder temperatures (higher elevation) had negative responses to high tree mortality and water deficit, but positive responses to increasing temperature. We projected the highest total bird abundances in the future under the warmest climate scenario that we considered, but habitat modification (e.g., tree mortality) and water deficit could offset the positive influence of temperature for many species. As other studies have shown, climate warming may lead to substantial but idiosyncratic effects on wildlife species that could result in community composition shifts. We conclude that future climate conditions may not have a universally negative effect on biodiversity in the Sierra Nevada, but probable vegetation changes and increased likelihood of extreme events such as drought should be incorporated into climate-smart forest and wildlife management decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Jay Roberts
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive, #11, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA
| | - Ryan Burnett
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive, #11, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA
| | - James Tietz
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive, #11, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA
| | - Sam Veloz
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive, #11, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA
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21
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Gaüzère P, Iversen LL, Barnagaud JY, Svenning JC, Blonder B. Empirical Predictability of Community Responses to Climate Change. Front Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2018.00186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
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22
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Huang Q, Sauer JR, Dubayah RO. Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:3610-3622. [PMID: 28295885 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2016] [Revised: 02/01/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr-1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiongyu Huang
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - John R Sauer
- U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD, USA
| | - Ralph O Dubayah
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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