Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization

Simulating diverse forest management options in a changing climate on a Pinus nigra subsp. laricio plantation in Southern Italy

Mediterranean pine plantations provide several ecosystem services but are vulnerable to climate change. Forest management might play a strategic role in the adaptation of Mediterranean forests, but the joint effect of climate change and diverse management options have seldom been investigated together. Here, we simulated the development of a Laricio pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) stand in the Bonis watershed (southern Italy) from its establishment in 1958 up to 2095 using a state-of-the-science process-based forest model. The model was run under three climate scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and warming, and six management options with different goals, including wood production and renaturalization. We analysed the effect of climate change on annual carbon fluxes (i.e., gross and net primary production) and stocks (i.e., basal area, standing and harvested carbon woody stocks) of the autotrophic compartment, as well as the impact of different management options compared to a no management baseline. Results show that higher temperatures (+3 to +5 °C) and lower precipitation (-20 % to -22 %) will trigger a decrease in net primary productivity in the second half of the century. Compared to no management, the other options had a moderate effect on carbon fluxes over the whole simulation (between -14 % and +11 %). While standing woody biomass was reduced by thinning interventions and the shelterwood system (between -5 % and -41 %), overall carbon stocks including the harvested wood were maximized (between +41 % and +56 %). Results highlight that management exerts greater effects on the carbon budget of Laricio pine plantations than climate change alone, and that climate change and management are largely independent (i.e., no strong interaction effects). Therefore, appropriate silvicultural strategies might enhance potential carbon stocks and improve forest conditions, with cascading positive effects on the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean pine plantations.

Daytime warming triggers tree growth decline in the Northern Hemisphere

Global warming has been linked to declines in tree growth. However, it is unclear how the asymmetry in daytime and nighttime warming influences this response. Here, we use 2947 residual tree-ring width chronologies covering 32 species at 2493 sites, between 1901 and 2018, across the Northern Hemisphere, to analyze the effects of daytime and nighttime temperatures, precipitation, and drought stress on the radial growth of trees. We show that drought stress was primarily triggered by daytime rather than nighttime warming. The radial growth of trees was more sensitive to drought stress in warm regions than in cold regions, especially for angiosperms. Our study provides robust evidence that daytime warming is the primary driver of the observed declines in forest productivity related to drought stress and that daytime and nighttime warming should be considered separately when modelling forest-climate interactions and feedbacks in a future, warmer world.

Non-linear modelling reveals a predominant moisture limit on juniper growth across the southern Tibetan Plateau

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tree growth in plateau forests is critically limited by harsh climatic conditions. Many mathematical statistical methods have been used to identify the relationships between tree growth and climatic factors, but there is still uncertainty regarding the relative importance of these factors across different regions. We tested major climatic limits at 30 sites to provide insights into the main climatic limits for juniper trees (Juniperus tibetica Kom.) across the southern Tibetan Plateau.

METHODS

We analysed the linear and non-linear relationships between tree growth and climatic factors using Pearson correlation statistics and a process-based forward Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) model, respectively. These relationships were used to identify the strength of the influence of different climatic factors throughout the species' growing season and to identify the main climatic factors limiting tree growth.

KEY RESULTS

Growth of juniper trees began in April and ended in October in the study area. The radial growth of juniper trees was limited by soil moisture throughout the summer (June-August) of the current year at 24 sampling sites and was limited by temperature at the other six sites on the southern Tibetan Plateau.

CONCLUSIONS

Soil moisture limited juniper growth at the majority of sites. Temperature in the current summer limited the growth of juniper trees at a few sampling sites in the western part of the study area. Local climate conditions may contribute to different limiting factors in the growth response of trees on the southern Tibetan Plateau. These findings may contribute to our understanding of divergent forest dynamics and to sustainable forest management under future climate scenarios.

Future Projection of CO2 Absorption and N2O Emissions of the South Korean Forests under Climate Change Scenarios: Toward Net-Zero CO2 Emissions by 2050 and Beyond

Forests mitigate climate change by absorbing CO2. However, N2O emissions in forests, which has 298 times larger global warming potential than CO2, can diminish the climate mitigation role of forests. Thus, it is crucial to project not only CO2 absorption but also N2O emissions in forests to provide a scientific basis for the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal. This study used a biogeochemical model, called FBD-CAN, to project CO2 absorption and N2O emissions of South Korean forests from 2021 to 2080 under three climate scenarios, including the current climate, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and RCP 8.5. From 2021 to 2080, CO2 absorption decreased from 5.0 to 1.4 Mg CO2 ha—1 year—1 under the current climate with the aging of forests, while N2O emissions increased from 0.25 to 0.33 Mg CO2 eq. ha—1 year—1. Climate change accelerated the decreasing trend in CO2 absorption and the increasing trend in N2O emissions. The subalpine region had a faster decreasing trend in CO2 absorption than the central and southern regions due to its older stand age. These findings provide scientific references for future greenhouse gas reduction plans and broaden our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the climate mitigation role of forests.

Forest disturbances and climate constrain carbon allocation dynamics in trees

Forest disturbances such as drought, fire, and logging affect the forest carbon dynamics and the terrestrial carbon sink. Forest mortality after disturbances creates uncertainties that need to be accounted for to understand forest dynamics and their associated C-sink. We combined data from permanent resampling plots and biomass oriented dendroecological plots to estimate time series of annual woody biomass growth (ABI) in several forests. ABI time series were used to benchmark a vegetation model to analyze dynamics in forest productivity and carbon allocation forced by environmental variability. The model implements source and sink limitations explicitly by dynamically constraining carbon allocation of assimilated photosynthates as a function of temperature and moisture. Bias in tree-ring reconstructed ABI increased back in time from data collection and with increasing disturbance intensity. ABI bias ranged from zero, in open stands without recorded mortality, to over 100% in stands with major disturbances such as thinning or snowstorms. Stand leaf area was still lower than in control plots decades after heavy thinning. Disturbances, species life-history strategy and climatic variability affected carbon-partitioning patterns in trees. Resprouting broadleaves reached maximum biomass growth at earlier ages than nonresprouting conifers. Environmental variability and leaf area explained much variability in woody biomass allocation. Effects of stand competition on C-allocation were mediated by changes in stand leaf area except after major disturbances. Divergence between tree-ring estimated and simulated ABI were caused by unaccounted changes in allocation or misrepresentation of some functional process independently of the model calibration approach. Higher disturbance intensity produced greater modifications of the C-allocation pattern, increasing error in reconstructed biomass dynamics. Legacy effects from disturbances decreased model performance and reduce the potential use of ABI as a proxy to net primary productivity. Trait-based dynamics of C-allocation in response to environmental variability need to be refined in vegetation models.

Diversification of forestry portfolios for climate change and market risk mitigation

Investments in forestry are long-term and thus subject to numerous sources of risk. In addition to the volatility from markets, forestry investments are directly exposed to future impacts from climate change. We examined how diversification of forest management regimes can mitigate the expected risks associated with forestry activities in New Zealand based on an application of Modern Portfolio Theory. Uncertainties in the responses of Pinus radiata (D. Don) productivity to climate change, from 2050 to 2090, were simulated with 3-PG, a process-based forest growth model, based on future climate scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future timber market scenarios were based on RCP-specific projections from the Global Timber Model and historical log grade prices. Outputs from 3-PG and the market scenarios were combined to compute annualized forestry returns for four P. radiata regimes for 2050-2090. This information was then used to construct optimal forestry portfolios that minimize investment risk for a given target return under different RCPs, forest productivity and market scenarios. While current P. radiata regimes in New Zealand are largely homogenous, our results suggest that regime diversification can mitigate future risks imposed by climate change and market uncertainty. Nevertheless, optimal portfolio compositions varied substantially across our range of scenarios and portfolio objectives. The application of this framework can help forest managers to better account for future risks in their management decisions.

Holm oak death is accelerated but not sudden and expresses drought legacies

The increase in abiotic and biotic stress driven by global change threatens forest ecosystems and challenges understanding of mechanisms producing mortality. Phytophthora spp. like P. cinnamomi (PHYCI) are among the most lethal pathogens for many woody species including Quercus spp. Dynamics of biotic agents and their hosts are complex and influenced by climatic conditions. We analysed radial growth trends of dead and live adult Quercus ilex trees from agrosilvopastoral open woodlands under intense land-use. A pronounced warming trend since the 1980s has coincided in these woodlands with high oak mortality rates generally attributed to PHYCI. Yet, tree mortality and latency of the pathogen could be expressed at variable time spans, whereas, like in many other forests worldwide, tree death could also be explained by other factors like drought. PHYCI was isolated from roots of all dead oaks from one region. Trees were younger than generally believed and ages of dead trees ranged between 38 and 230 years. Growth of dead trees reached a tipping point in 1980 and 1990 coincident with two-year extraordinary droughts. These dates set the start of growth declines up to 30 years before tree death. Live trees did not exhibit any recent growth decline. Tree growth was highly sensitive to climatic variability associated with water stress and climate-growth relationships suggested phenological changes since the 1980s. Live and dead trees showed differences in their sensitivity to moisture availability and temperature. The sensitivity of growth to climate was partially related to site environmental conditions. Simulated gross and net primary productivity were higher in live sites with less atmospheric demand for water. Tree death was not sudden but a slow multiannual process as expressed by radial growth declines likely triggered by drought. Regardless of the causal agent or mechanism, the observed mortality affected trees exhibiting negative drought and land-use legacies.

Ecological Diversity within Rear-Edge: A Case Study from Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd

Understanding the ecology of populations located in the rear edge of their distribution is key to assessing the response of the species to changing environmental conditions. Here, we focus on rear-edge populations of Quercus pyrenaica in Sierra Nevada (southern Iberian Peninsula) to analyze their ecological and floristic diversity. We perform multivariate analyses using high-resolution environmental information and forest inventories to determine how environmental variables differ among oak populations, and to identify population groups based on environmental and floristic composition. We find that water availability is a key variable in explaining the distribution of Q. pyrenaica and the floristic diversity of their accompanying communities within its rear edge. Three cluster of oak populations were identified based on environmental variables. We found differences among these clusters regarding plant diversity, but not for forest attributes. A remarkable match between the populations clustering derived from analysis of environmental variables and the ordination of the populations according to species composition was found. The diversity of ecological behaviors for Q. pyrenaica populations in this rear edge are consistent with the high genetic diversity shown by populations of this oak in the Sierra Nevada. The identification of differences between oak populations within the rear-edge with respect to environmental variables can aid with planning the forest management and restoration actions, particularly considering the importance of some environmental factors in key ecological aspects.

Climate Change Synchronizes Growth and iWUE Across Species in a Temperate-Submediterranean Mixed Oak Forest

Tree species have good tolerance to a range of environmental conditions, though their ability to respond and persist to environmental changes is dramatically reduced at the rear-edge distribution limits. At those edges, gene flow conferring adaptation is impaired due to lack of populations at lower latitudes. Thus, trees mainly rely on phenotypic changes to buffer against long-term environmental changes. Interspecific hybridization may offer an alternative mechanism in the generation of novel genetic recombinants that could be particularly valuable to ensure persistence in geographically isolated forests. In this paper, we take advantage of the longevity of a temperate-submediterranean mixed-oak forest to explore the long-term impact of environmental changes on two different oak species and their hybrid. Individual trees were genetically characterized and classified into three groups: pure Quercus petraea (Matt.), Liebl, pure Q. pyrenaica Willd, and hybrids. We calculated basal area increment and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) from tree-ring width and δ13C per genetic group, respectively. Tree-growth drivers were assessed using correlation analyses and generalized linear mixed models for two contrasting climatic periods: (1880-1915, colder with [CO2] < 303 ppm; and 1980-2015, warmer with [CO2] > 338 ppm). The three genetic groups have increased radial growth and iWUE during the last decades, being the least drought-tolerant QuPe the most sensitive species to water stress. However, no significant differences were found among genetic groups neither in mean growth rate nor in mean iWUE. Furthermore, little differences were found in the response to climate among groups. Genetic groups only differed in the relationship between δ13C and temperature and precipitation during the earlier period, but such a difference disappeared during the recent decades. Climate change may have promoted species-level convergence as a response to environment-induced growth limitations, which translated in synchronized growth and response to climate as well as a tighter stomatal control and increased iWUE across coexisting oak species.

Synergistic abiotic and biotic stressors explain widespread decline of Pinus pinaster in a mixed forest

Global change potentially increases forest vulnerability. Different abiotic and biotic factors may interact to cause forest decline and accelerated tree mortality. We studied a mixed Mediterranean continental forest where Pinus pinaster Ait. (maritime pine) shows widespread decline to analyse the role of different abiotic and biotic factors on health status and growth dynamics both at the individual and plot levels. We also analysed stand composition and regeneration of tree species to check whether there is a change in species dominance. Fungal pathogens were seldom present and we detected no pervasive fungi or insect infestation and no presence of pathogens like Heterobasidion or Phytophthora. Infection of hemiparasite plants like Viscum album L. (mistletoe) can reduce leaf area and its abundance is generally considered an expression of host decline. Yet, the existence among declining trees of high defoliation levels without mistletoe, but not vice versa, suggests that defoliation in response to some abiotic stressor could be a predisposing factor preceding mistletoe infection. Compared to healthy trees, declining and dead trees exhibited higher defoliation rates, smaller needles and lower recent growth with steeper negative trends. Dead and declining trees showed similar negative growth trends since the early 1990s droughts, which we interpreted as early warning signals anticipating mortality of currently declining trees in the near future. Mortality of maritime pine extending across all size classes, the lower presence of this species in the smallest size classes and its lack of regeneration suggest it is potentially losing its current dominance and being replaced by other co-occurring, more drought-tolerant species. Our results unravelled that maritime pine decline seems to be mainly driven by a combination of predisposing and inciting abiotic factors (microenvironment and drought stress) and biotic factors (mistletoe). The absence of widespread fungal pathogens suggests that they may have a minor role on pine decline acting only eventually as contributing factors. Although there could be other interrelations among factors or other biotic agents at play, our results strongly suggest that water stress plays a major role in the decline process of the dominant species on an ecosystem with strong land-use legacies.

Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short- and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.

Evidence that higher [CO2] increases tree growth sensitivity to temperature: a comparison of modern and paleo oaks

To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO₂ concentrations, we determined stem radial growth rates as they relate to variation in temperature during the last deglacial period, and compare these to modern tree growth rates as they relate to spatial variation in temperature across the modern species distributional range. Paleo oaks were sampled from Northern Missouri, USA and compared to a pollen-based, high-resolution paleo temperature reconstruction from Northern Illinois, USA. Growth data were from 53 paleo bur oak log cross sections collected in Missouri. These oaks were preserved in river and stream sediments and were radiocarbon-dated to a period of rapid climate change during the last deglaciation (10.5 and 13.3 cal kyr BP). Growth data from modern bur oaks were obtained from increment core collections paired with USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data collected across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes regions. For modern oaks growing at an average [CO₂] of 330 ppm, growth sensitivity to temperature (i.e., the slope of growth rate versus temperature) was about twice that of paleo oaks growing at an average [CO₂] of 230 ppm. These data help to confirm that leaf-level predictions that photosynthesis and thus growth will be more sensitive to temperature at higher [CO₂] in mature trees-suggesting that tree growth forest productivity will be increasingly sensitive to temperature under projected global warming and high-[CO₂] conditions.