Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Phytoplankton biomass in northern lakes reveals a complex response to global change

Global change may introduce fundamental alterations in phytoplankton biomass and community structure that can alter the productivity of northern lakes. In this study, we utilized Swedish and Finnish monitoring data from lakes that are spatially (135 lakes) and temporally (1995-2019, 110 lakes) extensive to assess how phytoplankton biomass (PB) of dominant phytoplankton groups related to changes in water temperature, pH and key nutrients [total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), iron (Fe)] along spatial (Fennoscandia) and temporal (25 years) gradients. Using a machine learning approach, we found that TP was the most important determinant of total PB and biomass of a specific species of Raphidophyceae - Gonyostomum semen - and Cyanobacteria (both typically with adverse impacts on food-webs and water quality) in spatial analyses, while Fe and pH were second in importance for G. semen and TN and pH were second and third in importance for Cyanobacteria. However, in temporal analyses, decreasing Fe and increasing pH and TOC were associated with a decrease in G. semen and an increase in Cyanobacteria. In addition, in many lakes increasing TOC seemed to have generated browning to an extent that significantly reduced PB. The identified discrepancy between the spatial and temporal results suggests that substitutions of data for space-for-time may not be adequate to characterize long-term effects of global change on phytoplankton. Further, we found that total PB exhibited contrasting temporal trends (increasing in northern- and decreasing in southern Fennoscandia), with the decline in total PB being more pronounced than the increase. Among phytoplankton, G. semen biomass showed the strongest decline, while cyanobacterial biomass showed the strongest increase over 25 years. Our findings suggest that progressing browning and changes in Fe and pH promote significant temporal changes in PB and shifts in phytoplankton community structures in northern lakes.

Integrating water quality data with a Bayesian network model to improve spatial and temporal phosphorus attribution: Application to the Maumee River Basin

Surface water nutrient pollution, the primary cause of eutrophication, remains a major environmental concern in Western Lake Erie despite intergovernmental efforts to regulate nutrient sources. The Maumee River Basin has been the largest nutrient contributor. The two primary nutrient sources are inorganic fertilizer and livestock manure applied to croplands, which are later carried to the streams via runoff and soil erosion. Prior studies of nutrient source attribution have focused on large watersheds or counties at annual time scales. Source attribution at finer spatiotemporal scales, which enables more effective nutrient management, remains a substantial challenge. This study aims to address this challenge by developing a generalizable Bayesian network model for phosphorus source attribution at the subwatershed scale (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code). Since phosphorus release is uncertain, we combine excess phosphorus derived from manure and fertilizer application and crop uptake data, flow information simulated by the SWAT model, and in-stream water quality measurements using Approximate Bayesian Computation to derive a posterior that attributes phosphorus contributions to subwatersheds. Our results show significant variability in subwatershed-scale phosphorus release that is lost in coarse-scale attribution. Phosphorus contributions attributed to the subwatersheds are on average lower than the excess phosphorus estimated by the nutrient balance approach currently adopted by environmental agencies. Fertilizer contributes more soluble reactive phosphorus than manure, while manure contributes most of the unreactive phosphorus. While developed for the specific context of Maumee River Basin, our lightweight and generalizable model framework could be adapted to other regions and pollutants and could help inform targeted environmental regulation and enforcement.

Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia

The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important attribute of aquatic ecosystems, influencing habitat, drinking water quality, biodiversity, nutrient biogeochemistry, and greenhouse gas emissions. While average summer DO concentrations are declining in lakes across the temperate zone, much remains unknown about seasonal factors contributing to deepwater DO losses. It is unclear whether declines are related to increasing rates of seasonal DO depletion or changes in seasonal stratification that limit re-oxygenation of deep waters. Furthermore, despite the presence of important biological and ecological DO thresholds, there has been no large-scale assessment of changes in the amount of habitat crossing these thresholds, limiting the ability to understand the consequences of observed DO losses. We used a dataset from >400 widely distributed lakes to identify the drivers of DO losses and quantify the frequency and volume of lake water crossing biologically and ecologically important threshold concentrations ranging from 5 to 0.5 mg/L. Our results show that while there were no consistent changes over time in seasonal DO depletion rates, over three-quarters of lakes exhibited an increase in the duration of stratification, providing more time for seasonal deepwater DO depletion to occur. As a result, most lakes have experienced summertime increases in the amount of water below all examined thresholds in deepwater DO concentration, with increases in the proportion of the water column below thresholds ranging between 0.9% and 1.7% per decade. In the 30-day period preceding the end of stratification, increases were greater at >2.2% per decade and >70% of analyzed lakes experienced increases in the amount of oxygen-depleted water. These results indicate ongoing climate-induced increases in the duration of stratification have already contributed to reduction of habitat for many species, likely increased internal nutrient loading, and otherwise altered lake chemistry. Future warming is likely to exacerbate these trends.

Lakes in Hot Water: The Impacts of a Changing Climate on Aquatic Ecosystems

Our planet is being subjected to unprecedented climate change, with far-reaching social and ecological repercussions. Below the waterline, aquatic ecosystems are being affected by multiple climate-related and anthropogenic stressors, the combined effects of which are poorly understood and rarely appreciated at the global stage. A striking consequence of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is that many are experiencing shorter periods of ice cover, as well as earlier and longer summer stratified seasons, which often result in a cascade of ecological and environmental consequences, such as warmer summer water temperatures, alterations in lake mixing and water levels, declines in dissolved oxygen, increased likelihood of cyanobacterial algal blooms, and the loss of habitat for native cold-water fisheries. The repercussions of a changing climate include impacts on freshwater supplies, water quality, biodiversity, and the ecosystem benefits that they provide to society.

Multi-decadal changes in phytoplankton biomass in northern temperate lakes as seen through the prism of landscape properties

Ecologists collectively predict that climate change will enhance phytoplankton biomass in northern lakes. Yet there are unique variations in the structures and regulating functions of lakes to make this prediction challengeable and, perhaps, inaccurate. We used archived Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite products to estimate epilimnetic chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass in 281 northern temperate lakes over 28 years. We explored the influence of climate (air temperature, precipitation) and landscape proxies for nutrient sources (proportion of wetlands in a contributing catchment, size of the littoral zone, potential for wind-driven sediment resuspension as estimated by the dynamic ratio) or nutrient sinks (lake volume) in a random forest model to explain heterogeneity in peak Chl-a. Lakes with higher Chl-a (median Chl-a = 2.4 μg L^-1 , n = 40) had smaller volumes (<44 × 10⁴  m³ ) and were more sensitive to increases in temperature. In contrast, lakes with lower Chl-a (median Chl-a = 0.6 μg L^-1 , n = 241) had larger volumes (≥44 × 10⁴  m³ ), contributing catchments with smaller proportions of wetlands (<4.5% of catchment area, n = 70), smaller littoral zones (<16.4 ha, n = 137), minimal wind-driven sediment resuspension (as defined by the dynamic ratio; <0.45, n = 232), and were more sensitive to increases in precipitation. Lakes with larger volumes were generally less responsive to climate factors; however, larger volume lakes with a significant proportion of wetlands and larger littoral zones behaved similarly to lakes with smaller volumes. Our finding that lakes with different landscape properties respond differently to climate factors may help predict the susceptibility of lakes to eutrophication under changing climatic conditions.

Assessing Evidence of Phosphorus Concentration Trends in North American Fresh Waters

The U.S. EPA's National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) documented evidence of widespread, unexplained total phosphorus (TP) concentration increases in lakes and streams across the United States during the 2000 - 2012 time period. To examine the robustness of evidence for this trend, we used additional monitoring datasets to calculate rates of TP change in thousands of individual waterbodies across the U.S. during the same time frame, and compared them against TP change rates calculated in the same manner for waterbodies that were resurveyed under NARS in different years. For the additional datasets, median rates of TP change were substantially lower than median rates calculated using NARS data. To further examine differences between NARS and non-NARS results in specific waterbodies, we assembled composite datasets for 52 predominantly northern lakes that by chance had been sampled under both NARS and other sampling programs during the same time frame. Using only NARS data, the median calculated TP change rate for this set of lakes was positive, and similar to that for the larger set of 401 resurveyed NARS lakes. However, when additional sample data were included, the median calculated TP change rate for these lakes was much lower. Results suggest that increasing TP concentrations in waterbodies may not have been as ubiquitous as suggested. They also illustrate a need to supplement randomized continental-scale monitoring with detailed, site-focused investigations.

Hydrologic Setting Dictates the Sensitivity of Ecosystem Metabolism to Climate Variability in Lakes

Global change is influencing production and respiration in ecosystems across the globe. Lakes in particular are changing in response to climatic variability and cultural eutrophication, resulting in changes in ecosystem metabolism. Although the primary drivers of production and respiration such as the availability of nutrients, light, and carbon are well known, heterogeneity in hydrologic setting (for example, hydrological connectivity, morphometry, and residence) across and within regions may lead to highly variable responses to the same drivers of change, complicating our efforts to predict these responses. We explored how differences in hydrologic setting among lakes influenced spatial and inter annual variability in ecosystem metabolism, using high-frequency oxygen sensor data from 11 lakes over 8 years. Trends in mean metabolic rates of lakes generally followed gradients of nutrient and carbon concentrations, which were lowest in seepage lakes, followed by drainage lakes, and higher in bog lakes. We found that while ecosystem respiration (ER) was consistently higher in wet years in all hydrologic settings, gross primary production (GPP) only increased in tandem in drainage lakes. However, interannual rates of ER and GPP were relatively stable in drainage lakes, in contrast to seepage and bog lakes which had coefficients of variation in metabolism between 22–32%. We explored how the geospatial context of lakes, including hydrologic residence time, watershed area to lake area, and landscape position influenced the sensitivity of individual lake responses to climatic variation. We propose a conceptual framework to help steer future investigations of how hydrologic setting mediates the response of metabolism to climatic variability.

Context is Everything: Interacting Inputs and Landscape Characteristics Control Stream Nitrogen

To understand the environmental and anthropogenic drivers of stream nitrogen (N) concentrations across the conterminous US, we combined summer low-flow data from 4997 streams with watershed information across three survey periods (2000-2014) of the US EPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment. Watershed N inputs explained 51% of the variation in log-transformed stream total N (TN) concentrations. Both N source and input rates influenced stream NO3/TN ratios and N concentrations. Streams dominated by oxidized N forms (NO3/TN ratio > 0.50) were more strongly responsive to the N input rate compared to streams dominated by other N forms. NO3 proportional contribution increased with N inputs, supporting N saturation-enhanced NO3 export to aquatic ecosystems. By combining information about N inputs with climatic and landscape factors, random forest models of stream N concentrations explained 70, 58, and 60% of the spatial variation in stream concentrations of TN, dissolved inorganic N, and total organic N, respectively. The strength and direction of relationships between watershed drivers and stream N concentrations and forms varied with N input intensity. Model results for high N input watersheds not only indicated potential contributions from contaminated groundwater to high stream N concentrations but also the mitigating role of wetlands.

Analyzing long-term water quality of lakes in Rhode Island and the northeastern United States with an anomaly approach

Addressing anthropogenic impacts on aquatic ecosystems is a focus of lake management. Controlling phosphorus and nitrogen can mitigate these impacts, but determining management effectiveness requires long-term datasets. Recent analysis of the LAke multi-scaled GeOSpatial and temporal database for the Northeast (LAGOS-NE) United States found stable water quality in the northeastern and midwestern United States; however, sub-regional trends may be obscured. We used the University of Rhode Island's Watershed Watch Volunteer Monitoring Program (URIWW) dataset to determine if there were sub-regional (i.e., 3000 km2) water quality trends. URIWW has collected water quality data on Rhode Island lakes and reservoirs for over 25 yr. The LAGOS-NE and URIWW datasets allowed for comparison of water quality trends at regional and sub-regional scales, respectively. We assessed regional (LAGOS-NE) and sub-regional (URIWW) trends with yearly median anomalies calculated on a per-station basis. Sub-regionally, temperature and chlorophyll a increased from 1993 to 2016. Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and the nitrogen:phosphorus ratio (N:P) were stable. At the regional scale, the LAGOS-NE dataset showed similar trends to prior studies of the LAGOS-NE with chlorophyll a, total nitrogen, and N:P all stable over time. Total phosphorus did show a very slight increase. In short, algal biomass, as measured by chlorophyll a in Rhode Island lakes and reservoirs increased, despite stability in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio. Additionally, we demonstrated both the value of long-term monitoring programs, like URIWW, for identifying trends in environmental condition, and the utility of site-specific anomalies for analyzing for long-term water quality trends.

Variability of chlorophyll and the influence factors during winter in seasonally ice-covered lakes

Lake ice is an essential and integral part of the cryosphere and freshwater systems. The formation of lake ice affects the physical, hydrological, and biological conditions of ecological systems. Global warming may contribute to even shorter periods of ice cover in the lakes of the Frigid Zone, which adversely affects the growth of phytoplankton and primary productivity. This study was conducted for the purpose of evaluating the growth of phytoplankton and factors involved, in 28 ice-covered lakes across the Songnen Plain, in the Northeast of China, to understand how they take part in the whole-ecosystem functioning. A total of 1026 water samples were collected in April, September, and January during the period 2014-2018. In the frozen period, the concentration levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were all comparable with the spring and autumn. Despite the limited light availability and low temperature, the phytoplankton survived in sub-ice waters during winter with a low concentration of chlorophyll a (Chla). Its average concentration was positively correlated with the concentration observed in the previous autumn (r_p = 0.563, p < 0.01). According to the regression tree analysis, during the winter period, Chla was mainly related to the concentration of TN in sub-ice water (TN_water) and with the difference of concentration of TP between water and ice (TP_cd). Furthermore, either in ice or in sub-ice water, the concentration of Chla was also significantly affected by total suspended matter (TSM) (p < 0.05). The levels of TN_water, TP_cd, and TSM could explain the 77.8% of the variance in the concentration of Chla during winter with contributions in the ranges of 25.5%-35.0%, 9.2%-11.3%, and 21.5%-34.0%, respectively (p < 0.05). This research substantially contributes to comprehending how the existing conditions under-ice affect the whole ecosystem when the ice cover is reduced lakes or rivers.

Granular measures of agricultural land use influence lake nitrogen and phosphorus differently at macroscales

Agricultural land use is typically associated with high stream nutrient concentrations and increased nutrient loading to lakes. For lakes, evidence for these associations mostly comes from studies on individual lakes or watersheds that relate concentrations of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) to aggregate measures of agricultural land use, such as the proportion of land used for agriculture in a lake's watershed. However, at macroscales (i.e., in hundreds to thousands of lakes across large spatial extents), there is high variability around such relationships and it is unclear whether considering more granular (or detailed) agricultural data, such as fertilizer application, planting of specific crops, or the extent of near-stream cropping, would improve prediction and inform understanding of lake nutrient drivers. Furthermore, it is unclear whether lake N and P would have different relationships to such measures and whether these relationships would vary by region, since regional variation has been observed in prior studies using aggregate measures of agriculture. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined relationships between granular measures of agricultural activity and lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in 928 lakes and their watersheds in the Northeastern and Midwest U.S. using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach. We found that both lake TN and TP concentrations were related to these measures of agriculture, especially near-stream agriculture. The relationships between measures of agriculture and lake TN concentrations were more regionally variable than those for TP. Conversely, TP concentrations were more strongly related to lake-specific measures like depth and watershed hydrology relative to TN. Our finding that lake TN and TP concentrations have different relationships with granular measures of agricultural activity has implications for the design of effective and efficient policy approaches to maintain and improve water quality.

The role of phosphorus and nitrogen on chlorophyll a: Evidence from hundreds of lakes

The effect of nutrients on phytoplankton biomass in lakes continues to be a subject of debate by aquatic scientists. However, determining whether or not chlorophyll a (CHL) is limited by phosphorus (P) and/or nitrogen (N) is rarely considered using a probabilistic method in studies of hundreds of lakes across broad spatial extents. Several studies have applied a unified CHL-nutrient relationship to determine nutrient limitation, but pose a risk of ecological fallacy because they neglect spatial heterogeneity in ecological contexts. To examine whether or not CHL is limited by P, N, or both nutrients in hundreds of lakes and across diverse ecological settings, a probabilistic machine learning method, Bayesian Network, was applied. Spatial heterogeneity in ecological context was accommodated by the probabilistic nature of the results. We analyzed data from 1382 lakes in 17 US states to evaluate the cause-effect relationships between CHL and nutrients. Observations of CHL, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) were discretized into three trophic states (oligo-mesotrophic, eutrophic, and hypereutrophic) to train the model. We found that although both nutrients were related to CHL trophic state, TP was more related to CHL than TN, especially under oligo-mesotrophic and eutrophic CHL conditions. However, when the CHL trophic state was hypereutrophic, both TP and TN were important. These results provide additional evidence that P-limitation is more likely under oligo-mesotrophic or eutrophic CHL conditions and that co-limitation of P and N occurs under hypereutrophic CHL conditions. We also found a decreasing pattern of the TN/TP ratio with increasing CHL concentrations, which might be a key driver for the role change of nutrients. Previous work performed at smaller scales support our findings, indicating potential for extension of our findings to other regions. Our findings enhance the understanding of nutrient limitation at macroscales and revealed that the current debate on the limiting nutrient might be caused by failure to consider CHL trophic state. Our findings also provide prior information for the site-specific eutrophication management of unsampled or data-limited lakes.

Estimation of Kd(PAR) in inland waters across China in relation to the light absorption of optically active components

The comprehensive analysis of the relationships between the attenuation of photosynthetic active radiation (K_d(PAR)) and light absorption is an imperative requirement to retrieve K_d(PAR) from remote sensing data for aquatic environments. The spatial distributions of the K_d(PAR) and light absorption of optically active components (a_OACs) were routinely estimated in China lakes and reservoirs. Spatial K_d(PAR) was relatively dependent on the inorganic particles (average relative contribution of 57.95%). The a_OACs could explain 70-87% of K_d(PAR) variations. A linear model is used to predict K_d(PAR), as a function of light absorption coefficient of phytoplankton (a_phy), colored dissolved organic matter (a_CDOM), and inorganic particles (a_NAP): K_d(PAR) = 0.41 + 0.57 × a_CDOM + 0.96 × a_NAP + 0.57 × a_phy (R² = 0.87, n = 741, p < 0.001). In the lakes with low TSM concentration and non-eutrophic lakes with high TSM, a_CDOM was the most powerful predicting factor on K_d(PAR). In eutrophic lakes with high TSM, a_NAP had the most significant impact on K_d(PAR). This study allowed K_d(PAR) to be predicted from a_OACs values in the inland waters.

Quantifying the Extent of Anthropogenic Eutrophication of Lakes at a National Scale in New Zealand

Quantifying environmental changes relative to ecosystem reference conditions (baseline or natural states) can inform assessment of anthropogenic impacts and the development of restoration objectives and targets. We developed statistical models to predict current and reference concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in surface waters for a nationally representative sample of ≥1033 New Zealand lakes. The lake-specific nutrient concentrations reflected variation in factors including anthropogenic nutrient loads, hydrology, geology, elevation, climate, and lake and catchment morphology. Changes between reference and current concentrations were expressed to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic eutrophication. Overall, there was a clear increase in lake trophic status, with the most common trophic status being oligotrophic under a reference state and mesotrophic under current conditions. The magnitude of departure from reference state varied considerably within the sample; however, on average, the mean TN concentration approximately doubled between reference and current states, whereas the mean TP concentration increased approximately 4-fold. This study quantified the extent of water quality degradation across lake types at a national scale, thereby informing ecological restoration objectives and the potential to reduce anthropogenic nutrient loads, while also providing a modeling framework that can be applied to lakes elsewhere.

Spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem properties at macroscales

Although spatial and temporal variation in ecological properties has been well-studied, crucial knowledge gaps remain for studies conducted at macroscales and for ecosystem properties related to material and energy. We test four propositions of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem properties within a macroscale (1000 km's) extent. We fit Bayesian hierarchical models to thousands of observations from over two decades to quantify four components of variation - spatial (local and regional) and temporal (local and coherent); and to model their drivers. We found strong support for three propositions: (1) spatial variation at local and regional scales are large and roughly equal, (2) annual temporal variation is mostly local rather than coherent, and, (3) spatial variation exceeds temporal variation. Our findings imply that predicting ecosystem responses to environmental changes at macroscales requires consideration of the dominant spatial signals at both local and regional scales that may overwhelm temporal signals.

Geographic patterns of the climate sensitivity of lakes

Climate change is a well-recognized threat to lake ecosystems and, although there likely exists geographic variation in the sensitivity of lakes to climate, broad-scale, long-term studies are needed to understand this variation. Further, the potential mediating role of local to regional ecological context on these responses is not well documented. In this study, we examined relationships between climate and water clarity in 365 lakes from 1981 to 2010 in two distinct regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. We asked (1) How do climate-water-clarity relationships vary across watersheds and between two geographic regions? and (2) Do certain characteristics make some lakes more climate sensitive than others? We found strong differences in climate-water-clarity relationships both within and across the two regions. For example, in the northeastern region, water clarity was often negatively correlated with summer precipitation (median correlation = -0.32, n = 160 lakes), but was not correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = 0.09, n = 205 lakes). In the midwestern region, water clarity was not related to summer precipitation (median correlation = -0.04), but was often negatively correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = -0.18). There were few strong relationships between local and sub-regional ecological context and a lake's sensitivity to climate. For example, ecological context variables explained just 16-18% of variation in summer precipitation sensitivity, which was most related to total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, lake depth, and hydrology in both regions. Sensitivity to summer maximum temperature was even less predictable in both regions, with 4% or less of variation explained using all ecological context variables. Overall, we identified differences in the climate sensitivity of lakes across regions and found that local and sub-regional ecological context weakly influences the sensitivity of lakes to climate. Our findings suggest that local to regional drivers may combine to influence the sensitivity of lake ecosystems to climate change, and that sensitivities among lakes are highly variable within and across regions. This variability suggests that lakes are sensitive to different aspects of climate change (temperature vs. precipitation) and that responses of lakes to climate are heterogeneous and complex.

Predatory fish invasion induces within and across ecosystem effects in Yellowstone National Park

Predatory fish introduction can cause cascading changes within recipient freshwater ecosystems. Linkages to avian and terrestrial food webs may occur, but effects are thought to attenuate across ecosystem boundaries. Using data spanning more than four decades (1972-2017), we demonstrate that lake trout invasion of Yellowstone Lake added a novel, piscivorous trophic level resulting in a precipitous decline of prey fish, including Yellowstone cutthroat trout. Plankton assemblages within the lake were altered, and nutrient transport to tributary streams was reduced. Effects across the aquatic-terrestrial ecosystem boundary remained strong (log response ratio ≤ 1.07) as grizzly bears and black bears necessarily sought alternative foods. Nest density and success of ospreys greatly declined. Bald eagles shifted their diet to compensate for the cutthroat trout loss. These interactions across multiple trophic levels both within and outside of the invaded lake highlight the potential substantial influence of an introduced predatory fish on otherwise pristine ecosystems.

Quantifying the trophic status of lakes using total light absorption of optically active components

Eutrophication of lakes has become one of the world's most serious environmental problems, resulting in an urgent need to monitor and provide safeguards to control water quality. Results from analysis of lake trophic status based on calculated throphic state index (TSI) showed that 69.5% of the surveyed 277 lakes were in a state of eutrophication. Significant logarithmic relationships between light absorption of optically active components (a_OACs) and TSI (R² = 0.78) existed: TSI = 13.64 × ln(a_OACs)+43.24, and the regression relationship between a_OACs and TSI had a better degree of fit (R²) than the currently used reflectance-TSI relationship. a_OACs appeared to be a good predictor of TSI estimation in lake ecosystems. The relationship coefficient (a_OACs-TSI) slightly varied with lake type, and relationships in saline lakes and phy-type lakes were shown to be more robust than the relationship with the total lake data. This study highlights the quantification of the trophic status in lakes using a_OACs, which realized the monitoring of trophic status in lakes using inherent optical properties on a large-scale. To our knowledge this is the first investigation to assess the variability of trophic status in lakes across China. The assessment trophic state of lakes based on a_OACs provides a new way to monitor the trophic status of lakes, and findings may have applications for monitoring large-scale and long-term trophic patterns in lakes using remote sensing techniques.

Effects of multiple stressors on cyanobacteria abundance vary with lake type

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium-high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a "one-size fits-all" approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Declining ambient water phosphorus concentrations in Massachusetts' rivers from 1999 to 2013: Environmental protection works

Over the last century, nutrient concentrations in streams, rivers, lakes and ponds have increased substantially in the United States. Elevated phosphorus levels are a concern due to their ability to cause changes in freshwater ecosystems that are detrimental to humans and wildlife. In the present study, long-term trends in total phosphorus (TP) concentrations from 20 rivers in central Massachusetts from 1999 to 2013 were investigated. Kendall's correlation coefficients were used to demonstrate that 18 of the 20 rivers had significant reductions in TP concentrations (P < 0.05). A similar trend was found when flow-adjusted TP concentrations were analyzed. At the beginning of monitoring activities, the average TP concentration in 9 of the 20 rivers was greater than 0.05 mg/L and 6 of these 9 rivers contained TP concentrations greater than 0.1 mg/L; about fifteen years later, only 3 rivers contained TP greater than 0.05 mg/L and none had concentrations> 0.1 mg/L. TP decreases were greater in rivers with more anthropogenic inputs. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the decline of TP in these Massachusetts streams is likely the result of advancements in wastewater treatment and implementation of effective non-point source management practices.

LAGOS-NE: a multi-scaled geospatial and temporal database of lake ecological context and water quality for thousands of US lakes

Understanding the factors that affect water quality and the ecological services provided by freshwater ecosystems is an urgent global environmental issue. Predicting how water quality will respond to global changes not only requires water quality data, but also information about the ecological context of individual water bodies across broad spatial extents. Because lake water quality is usually sampled in limited geographic regions, often for limited time periods, assessing the environmental controls of water quality requires compilation of many data sets across broad regions and across time into an integrated database. LAGOS-NE accomplishes this goal for lakes in the northeastern-most 17 US states.

LAGOS-NE contains data for 51 101 lakes and reservoirs larger than 4 ha in 17 lake-rich US states. The database includes 3 data modules for: lake location and physical characteristics for all lakes; ecological context (i.e., the land use, geologic, climatic, and hydrologic setting of lakes) for all lakes; and in situ measurements of lake water quality for a subset of the lakes from the past 3 decades for approximately 2600–12 000 lakes depending on the variable. The database contains approximately 150 000 measures of total phosphorus, 200 000 measures of chlorophyll, and 900 000 measures of Secchi depth. The water quality data were compiled from 87 lake water quality data sets from federal, state, tribal, and non-profit agencies, university researchers, and citizen scientists. This database is one of the largest and most comprehensive databases of its type because it includes both in situ measurements and ecological context data. Because ecological context can be used to study a variety of other questions about lakes, streams, and wetlands, this database can also be used as the foundation for other studies of freshwaters at broad spatial and ecological scales.

Quantification of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) storage in lakes and reservoirs of mainland China

As a major fraction of carbon in inland waters, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a crucial role in carbon cycling on a global scale. However, the quantity of DOC stored in lakes and reservoirs was not clear to date. In an attempt to examine the factors that determine the DOC storage in lakes and reservoirs across China, we assembled a large database (measured 367 lakes, and meta-analyzed 102 lakes from five limnetic regions; measured 144 reservoirs, and meta-analyzed 272 reservoirs from 31 provincial units) of DOC concentrations and water storages for lakes and reservoirs that are used to determine DOC storage in static inland waters. We found that DOC concentrations in saline waters (Mean/median ± S.D: 50.5/30.0 ± 55.97 mg/L) are much higher than those in fresh waters (8.1/5.9 ± 6.8 mg/L), while lake DOC concentrations (25.9/11.5 ± 42.04 mg/L) are much higher than those in reservoirs (5.0/3.8 ± 4.5 mg/L). In terms of lake water volume and DOC storage, the Tibet-Qinghai lake region has the largest water volume (552.8 km³), 92% of which is saline waters, thus the largest DOC (13.39 Tg) is stored in these alpine lake region; followed by the Mengxin lake region, having a water volume of 99.4 km³ in which 1.75 Tg DOC was stored. Compared to Mengxin lake region, almost the same amount of water was stored in East China lake region (91.9 km³), however, much less DOC was stored in this region (0.43 Tg) due to the lower DOC concentration (Ave: 3.45 ± 2.68 mg/L). According to our investigation, Yungui and Northeast lake regions had water storages of 32.14 km³ and 19.44 km³ respectively, but relatively less DOC was stored in Yungui (0.13 Tg) than in Northeast lake region (0.19 Tg). Due to low DOC concentration in reservoirs, especially these large reservoirs having lower DOC concentration (V > 1.0 km³: 2.31 ± 1.48 mg/L), only 1.54 Tg was stored in a 485.1 km³ volume of water contained in reservoirs across the entire country.