Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges

Anthropogenic land-use legacies underpin climate change-related risks to forest ecosystems

Forest ecosystems with long-lasting human imprints can emerge worldwide as outcomes of land-use cessation. However, the interaction of these anthropogenic legacies with climate change impacts on forests is not well understood. Here, we set out how anthropogenic land-use legacies that persist in forest properties, following alterations in forest distribution, structure, and composition, can interact with climate change stressors. We propose a risk-based framework to identify anthropogenic legacies of land uses in forest ecosystems and quantify the impact of their interaction with climate-related stress on forest responses. Considering anthropogenic land-use legacies alongside environmental drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics will improve our predictive capacity of climate-related risks to forests and our ability to promote ecosystem resilience to climate change.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

What is the role of disturbance in catalyzing spatial shifts in forest composition and tree species biomass under climate change?

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts of tree species range and abundance (biomass). Abundance changes under climate change are likely to occur prior to a detectable range shift. Disturbances are expected to directly affect tree species abundance and composition, and could profoundly influence tree species spatial distribution within a geographical region. However, how multiple disturbance regimes will interact with changing climate to alter the spatial distribution of species abundance remains unclear. We simulated such forest demographic processes using a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) parameterized with forest inventory data in the northeastern United States. Our study incorporated climate change under a high-emission future and disturbance regimes varying with gradients of intensities and spatial extents. The results suggest that disturbances catalyze changes in tree species abundance and composition under a changing climate, but the effects of disturbances differ by intensity and extent. Moderate disturbances and large extent disturbances have limited effects, while high-intensity disturbances accelerate changes by removing cohorts of mid- and late-successional species, creating opportunities for early-successional species. High-intensity disturbances result in the northern movement of early-successional species and the southern movement of late-successional species abundances. Our study is among the first to systematically investigate how disturbance extent and intensity interact to determine the spatial distribution of changes in species abundance and forest composition.

Exploring Old Data with New Tricks: Long-Term Monitoring Indicates Spatial and Temporal Changes in Populations of Sympatric Prairie Grouse in the Nebraska Sandhills

The contiguous grasslands of the Sandhills region in Nebraska, USA, provide habitat for two sympatric, grassland-obligate species of grouse, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) and the plains sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus jamesi). Collectively referred to as prairie grouse, these birds are monitored and managed jointly by wildlife practitioners who face the novel challenge of conserving historically allopatric species in shared range. We reconstructed region-wide and route-specific prairie grouse population trends in the Sandhills, using a 63-year timeseries of breeding ground counts aggregated from old reports and paper archives. Our objective was to repurpose historical data collected for harvest management to address questions pertinent to the conservation of prairie grouse, species whose populations have declined precipitously throughout their respective ranges. Because we cannot change the sampling protocol of historical data to answer new questions, we applied 3 different methods of data analysis—traditional regional mean counts used to adjust harvest regulations, spatially implicit, site-specific counts, and spatially explicit trends. Prairie-chicken populations have increased since the 1950s, whereas sharp-tailed grouse populations have remained stable or slightly declined. However, each species exhibited unique shifts in abundance and distribution over time, and regional indices masked important aspects of population change. Our findings indicate that legacy data have the capacity to tell new stories apart from the questions they were collected to answer. By integrating concepts from landscape ecology—a discipline that emerged decades after the collection of our count data began—we demonstrate the potential of historical data to address questions of modern-day conservation concern, using prairie grouse as a case study.

Genetic Distinctiveness but Low Diversity Characterizes Rear-Edge Thuja standishii (Gordon) Carr. (Cupressaceae) Populations in Southwest Japan

Rear-edge populations are of significant scientific interest because they can contain allelic variation not found in core-range populations. However, such populations can differ in their level of genetic diversity and divergence reflecting variation in life-history traits, demographic histories and human impacts. Using 13 EST-microsatellites, we investigated the genetic diversity and differentiation of rear-edge populations of the Japanese endemic conifer Thuja standishii (Gordon) Carr. in southwest Japan from the core-range in northeast Japan. Range-wide genetic differentiation was moderate (Fst = 0.087), with northeast populations weakly differentiated (Fst = 0.047), but harboring high genetic diversity (average population-level Ar = 4.76 and Ho = 0.59). In contrast, rear-edge populations were genetically diverged (Fst = 0.168), but contained few unique alleles with lower genetic diversity (Ar = 3.73, Ho = 0.49). The divergence between rear-edge populations exceeding levels observed in the core-range and results from ABC analysis and species distribution modelling suggest that these populations are most likely relicts of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite long term persistence, low effective population size, low migration between populations and genetic drift have worked to promote the genetic differentiation of southwest Japan populations of T. standishii without the accumulation of unique alleles.

Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change

Mountains are plant biodiversity hotspots considered particularly vulnerable to multiple environmental changes. Here, we quantify population changes and range-shift dynamics along elevational gradients over the last three decades for c. two-thirds of the orchid species of the European Alps. Local extinctions were more likely for small populations, after habitat alteration, and predominated at the rear edge of species’ ranges. Except for the most thermophilic species and wetland specialists, population density decreased over time. Declines were more pronounced for rear-edge populations, possibly due to multiple pressures such as climate warming, habitat alteration, and mismatched ecological interactions. Besides these demographic trends, different species exhibited idiosyncratic range shifts with more than 50% of the species lagging behind climate warming. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of populations and range distributions at fine spatial resolution to be able to fully understand the consequences of global change for orchids.

Many mountain species are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Here, the authors investigate population declines and range shifts of orchids in an alpine region in NE Italy over 28 years. For most species, population size decreased, while range shifts were idiosyncratic with over half of the species lagging behind climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

Candidate gene SNP variation in floodplain populations of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) near the species' southern range margin: Weak differentiation yet distinct associations with water availability

Populations residing near species' low-latitude range margins (LLMs) often occur in warmer and drier environments than those in the core range. Thus, their genetic composition could be shaped by climatic drivers that differ from those occurring at higher latitudes, resulting in potentially adaptive variants of conservation value. Such variants could facilitate the adaptation of populations from other portions of the geographical range to similar future conditions anticipated under ongoing climate change. However, very few studies have assessed standing genetic variation at potentially adaptive loci in natural LLM populations. We investigated standing genetic variation at single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within 117 candidate genes and its links to putative climatic selection pressures across 19 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) populations distributed along a regional climatic gradient near the species' southern range margin in southeastern Europe. These populations are restricted to floodplain forests along large lowland rivers, whose hydric regime is undergoing significant shifts under modern rapid climate change. The populations showed very weak geographical structure, suggesting extensive genetic connectivity and gene flow or shared ancestry. We identified eight (6.2%) positive F_ST -outlier loci, and genotype-environment association analyses revealed consistent associations between SNP allele frequencies and several climatic variables linked to water availability. A total of 61 associations involving 37 SNPs (28.5%) from 35 annotated genes provided important insights into putative functional mechanisms in our system. Our findings provide empirical support for the role of LLM populations as sources of potentially adaptive variation that could enhance species' resilience to climate change-related pressures.

Effects of contemporary shifts of range margins on patterns of genetic structure and mating system in two coastal plant species

Species' geographical ranges are often restricted due to niche limitation resulting in geographical isolation and reduced population size at range margins. Under the "abundant center" paradigm, static marginal populations are thus expected to show higher genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity than core populations. Low mate availability may also drive shifts toward higher propensity for selfing in geographically marginal populations. However, these predictions remain to be validated for contemporary range shifts occurring under current environmental change. This study is devoted to bridging this gap and assesses the spatial patterns of genetic structure and mating system across the geographical range of two coastal plant species characterized by contrasting contemporary range dynamics: the receding myrmecochorous Dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii) and the widespread expanding hydrochorous Rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum). Both species exhibited high propensity for selfing, with indications of inbreeding depression acting at early life stages. In Dune pansy, a biogeographical break was observed between core and marginal populations, with trailing-edge populations showing higher levels of genetic differentiation, reduced genetic diversity, and higher levels of selfing estimated through progeny arrays. In contrast, genetic structuring was weak in Rock samphire and no clear spatial trends were observed in genetic diversity nor in mating system, likely the result of efficient long-distance seed dispersal by sea-surface currents. Our study highlights that key species differences in life-history traits related to dispersal and/or mate limitation modify the expectations of genetic diversity loss and mating system shift in contemporary range-expanding populations, as compared with historical core populations.

Hiding from the climate: Characterizing microrefugia for boreal forest understory species

Climate warming is likely to shift the range margins of species poleward, but fine-scale temperature differences near the ground (microclimates) may modify these range shifts. For example, cold-adapted species may survive in microrefugia when the climate gets warmer. However, it is still largely unknown to what extent cold microclimates govern the local persistence of populations at their warm range margin. We located 99 microrefugia, defined as sites with edge populations of 12 widespread boreal forest understory species (vascular plants, mosses, liverworts and lichens) in an area of ca. 24,000 km² along the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Within each population, a logger measured temperature eight times per day during one full year. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the differences of the populations' microclimates with the mean and range of microclimates in the landscape, and identified the typical climate, vegetation and topographic features of these habitats. Comparison sites were drawn from another logger data set (n = 110), and from high-resolution microclimate maps. The microrefugia were mainly places characterized by lower summer and autumn maximum temperatures, late snow melt dates and high climate stability. Microrefugia also had higher forest basal area and lower solar radiation in spring and autumn than the landscape average. Although there were common trends across northern species in how microrefugia differed from the landscape average, there were also interspecific differences and some species contributed more than others to the overall results. Our findings provide biologically meaningful criteria to locate and spatially predict potential climate microrefugia in the boreal forest. This opens up the opportunity to protect valuable sites, and adapt forest management, for example, by keeping old-growth forests at topographically shaded sites. These measures may help to mitigate the loss of genetic and species diversity caused by rear-edge contractions in a warmer climate.