Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture

Agriculture's global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture's environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil erosion, accelerating the growth and expanding the range of crop diseases and pests, and increasing land clearing. We identify multiple pathways through which climate change intensifies agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potentially powerful climate change-reinforcing feedback loop. The challenges raised by climate change underscore the urgent need to transition to sustainable, climate-resilient agricultural systems. This requires investments that both accelerate adoption of proven solutions that provide multiple benefits, and that discover and scale new beneficial processes and food products.

Does climate change increase the risk of marine toxins? Insights from changing seawater conditions

Marine toxins produced by marine organisms threaten human health and impose a heavy public health burden on coastal countries. Lately, there has been an emergence of marine toxins in regions that were previously unaffected, and it is believed that climate change may be a significant factor. This paper systematically summarizes the impact of climate change on the risk of marine toxins in terms of changes in seawater conditions. From our findings, climate change can cause ocean warming, acidification, stratification, and sea-level rise. These climatic events can alter the surface temperature, salinity, pH, and nutrient conditions of seawater, which may promote the growth of various algae and bacteria, facilitating the production of marine toxins. On the other hand, climate change may expand the living ranges of marine organisms (such as algae, bacteria, and fish), thereby exacerbating the production and spread of marine toxins. In addition, the sources, distribution, and toxicity of ciguatoxin, tetrodotoxin, cyclic imines, and microcystin were described to improve public awareness of these emerging marine toxins. Looking ahead, developing interdisciplinary cooperation, strengthening monitoring of emerging marine toxins, and exploring more novel approaches are essential to better address the risks of marine toxins posed by climate change. Altogether, the interrelationships between climate, marine ecology, and marine toxins were analyzed in this study, providing a theoretical basis for preventing and managing future health risks from marine toxins.

Epigenetic responses of trees to environmental stress in the context of climate change

In long-lived tree populations, when environmental change outpaces rates of evolutionary adaptation, plasticity in traits related to stress tolerance, dormancy, and dispersal may be vital for preventing extinction. While a population's genetic background partly determines its ability to adapt to a changing environment, so too do the many types of epigenetic modifications that occur within and among populations, which vary on timescales orders of magnitude faster than the emergence of new beneficial alleles. Consequently, phenotypic plasticity driven by epigenetic modification may be especially critical for sessile, long-lived organisms such as trees that must rely on this plasticity to keep pace with rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While studies have reported large effects of DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNAs on the expression of stress-tolerance genes and resulting phenotypic responses, little is known about the role of these effects in non-model plants and particularly in trees. Here, we review new findings in plant epigenetics with particular relevance to the ability of trees to adapt to or escape stressors associated with rapid climate change. Such findings include specific epigenetic influences over drought, heat, and salinity tolerance, as well as dormancy and dispersal traits. We also highlight promising findings concerning transgenerational inheritance of an epigenetic 'stress memory' in plants. As epigenetic information is becoming increasingly easy to obtain, we close by outlining ways in which ecologists can use epigenetic information better to inform population management and forecasting efforts. Understanding the molecular mechanisms behind phenotypic plasticity and stress memory in tree species offers a promising path towards a mechanistic understanding of trees' responses to climate change.

Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O

An in-depth analysis of the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in climate change is examined here along with their diverse sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and industrial processes. Key GHG components such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered, along with data on emissions across various economic sectors. The consequences of climate change are also highlighted, ranging from more frequent and intense extreme weather events to rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The industrial revolution and unrestricted use of fossil fuels are key factors leading to an increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Global efforts to reduce emissions are considered, starting with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and culminating in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The limited effectiveness of early initiatives is underscored, emphasizing the significant importance of the Paris Agreement that provides a global framework for establishing goals to reduce GHG emissions by country. The Green Climate Fund and other international financial mechanisms are also considered as essential tools for financing sustainable projects in developing countries. The global community faces the challenge and necessity for more ambitious efforts to achieve the set goals for reducing GHG emissions. Successful strategies are examined by Sweden, Costa Rica, and Denmark to achieve zero GHG emissions that integrate renewable energy sources and technologies. The importance of global cooperation for creating a sustainable future is also emphasized.

Nanoscale chestnut soil pore characteristics changes induced by non-growing season precipitation in a temperate grassland

Changes in precipitation patterns during the non-growing season can affect soil moisture storage in temperate grasslands. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding how these changes influence microscale soil pore characteristics and nutrient cycling in the context of climate change. Therefore, we carried out a 3-year artificial precipitation experiment during the non-growing season, along with N2 adsorption experiments of soil pore distribution and surveys of soil nutrient content. The aim was to clarify the influence of non-growing season precipitation variations on nanoscale soil pore characteristics and explore the potential correlations of the soil physicochemical properties. The results showed that: (1) The precipitation sheltering treatment during the non-growing season led to a significant 9.80 % increase in soil porosity at the 0-15 cm depth compared to the control. (2) Compared to the control, alterations in non-growing season precipitation (both increase and sheltering treatments) led to a significant increase in soil specific surface area (SSA), with an average increase of 23.2 %. Additionally, soil micropores, mesopores, macropores, and total pore volume (PV) increased by an average of 24.2 %, 14.0 %, 30.1 %, and 23.1 %, respectively. (3) Significant correlations were observed between soil microscale pore characteristics and soil C, soil organic matter (SOM), C: N ratio, and available P (AP). Redundancy analysis showed that soil microscale pore characteristics effectively accounted for the variations in soil nutrients with an explanatory degree of 94.23 %. (4) Influence pathways analysis by structural equation modeling indicated that dramatic variability in non-growing season precipitation promoted increases in mesopore and macropore volume, as well as the transformation of mesopores into macropores, thereby facilitating soil carbon accumulation. Our study suggests that soil microscale pore characteristics, acquired through adsorption experiments, assist in elucidating these potential synergistic mechanisms among physicochemical properties under varying non-growing season precipitation patterns. Given the escalating impacts of climate change, our findings provide novel insights and evidence for the assessment of climate change impacts in temperate arid grassland ecosystems.

To live or let die? Epigenetic adaptations to climate change-a review

Anthropogenic activities are responsible for a wide array of environmental disturbances that threaten biodiversity. Climate change, encompassing temperature increases, ocean acidification, increased salinity, droughts, and floods caused by frequent extreme weather events, represents one of the most significant environmental alterations. These drastic challenges pose ecological constraints, with over a million species expected to disappear in the coming years. Therefore, organisms must adapt or face potential extinctions. Adaptations can occur not only through genetic changes but also through non-genetic mechanisms, which often confer faster acclimatization and wider variability ranges than their genetic counterparts. Among these non-genetic mechanisms are epigenetics defined as the study of molecules and mechanisms that can perpetuate alternative gene activity states in the context of the same DNA sequence. Epigenetics has received increased attention in the past decades, as epigenetic mechanisms are sensitive to a wide array of environmental cues, and epimutations spread faster through populations than genetic mutations. Epimutations can be neutral, deleterious, or adaptative and can be transmitted to subsequent generations, making them crucial factors in both long- and short-term responses to environmental fluctuations, such as climate change. In this review, we compile existing evidence of epigenetic involvement in acclimatization and adaptation to climate change and discuss derived perspectives and remaining challenges in the field of environmental epigenetics. Graphical Abstract.

Basking improves but winter warming worsens overwinter survival in the linden bug

The present study investigates the effects of rare winter basking behavior (observed in wild populations of the Linden bug, Pyrrhocoris apterus) and the effects of winter warming (predicted by climate models) on overwinter survival and physiology of P. apterus. The insects were exposed to scenarios simulating basking and winter warming in the laboratory. Part of the insects were exposed to real winters under semi-natural conditions in the field for comparison. The results show a clear positive effect of winter basking, implying that basking behavior is critical for overwinter survival in P. apterus. In contrast, winter warming was found to have a strong negative effect on overwinter survival, potentially representing a threat to central European populations of P. apterus. Physiological parameters (mass, water content, SCP, energy reserves) measured in this study cannot fully explain all the results. Further study is needed to better understand the mechanisms behind the positive effects of winter basking and the negative effects of winter warming on overwintering P. apterus.

Genome-wide sequencing reveals geographical variations in the thermal adaptation of an aquaculture species with frequent seedling introductions

Climate change and human activity are essential factors affecting marine biodiversity and aquaculture, and understanding the impacts of human activities on the genetic structure to increasing high temperatures is crucial for sustainable aquaculture and marine biodiversity conservation. As a commercially important bivalve, the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is widely distributed along the coast of China, and it has been frequently introduced from Fujian Province, China, to other regions for aquaculture. In this study, we collected four populations of Manila clams from different areas to evaluate their thermal tolerance by measuring cardiac performance and genetic variations using whole-genome resequencing. The upper thermal limits of the clams showed high variations within and among populations. Different populations displayed divergent genetic compositions, and the admixed population was partly derived from the Zhangzhou population in Fujian Province, implying a complex genomic landscape under the influence of local genetic sources and human introductions. Multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were associated with the cardiac functional traits, and some of these SNPs can affect the codon usage and the structural stability of the resulting protein. This study shed light on the importance of establishing long-term ecological and genetic monitoring programs at the local level to enhance resilience to future climate change.

Behavioral thermoregulation in primates: A review of literature and future avenues

Primates face severe challenges from climate change, with warming expected to increase animals' thermoregulatory demands. Primates have limited long-term options to cope with climate change, but possess a remarkable capacity for behavioral plasticity. This creates an urgency to better understand the behavioral mechanisms primates use to thermoregulate. While considerable information exists on primate behavioral thermoregulation, it is often scattered in the literature in a manner that is difficult to integrate. This review evaluates the status of the available literature on primate behavioral thermoregulation to facilitate future research. We surveyed peer-reviewed publications on primate thermoregulation for N = 17 behaviors across four thermoregulatory categories: activity budgeting, microhabitat use, body positioning, and evaporative cooling. We recorded data on the primate taxa evaluated, support for a thermoregulatory function, thermal variable assessed, and naturalistic/manipulative study conditions. Behavioral thermoregulation was pervasive across primates, with N = 721 cases of thermoregulatory behaviors identified across N = 284 published studies. Most genera were known to utilize multiple behaviors (x ¯  = 4.5 ± 3.1 behaviors/genera). Activity budgeting behaviors were the most commonly encountered category in the literature (54.5% of cases), while evaporative cooling behaviors were the least represented (6.9% of cases). Behavioral thermoregulation studies were underrepresented for certain taxonomic groups, including lemurs, lorises, galagos, and Central/South American primates, and there were large within-taxa disparities in representation of genera. Support for a thermoregulatory function was consistently high across all behaviors, spanning both hot- and cold-avoidance strategies. This review reveals asymmetries in the current literature and avenues for future research. Increased knowledge of the impact thermoregulatory behaviors have on biologically relevant outcomes is needed to better assess primate responses to warming environments and develop early indicators of thermal stress.

Effects of macroalgae and sea urchin grazing pressure on zoantharians growth under laboratory conditions

In the context of ocean warming, thermophilic organisms such as zoantharians are expanding and altering shallow benthic habitats. Here, a four-month laboratory experiment was performed to examine the influence of three types of macroalgae morphotypes common in the Canary Islands (turf algae, Lobophora spp., and crustose coralline algae) on the growth of two zoantharian species, Palythoa caribaeorum and Zoanthus pulchellus. Additionally, the grazing effects of echinoids Diadema africanum and Paracentrotus lividus were assessed as facilitators of substrate colonization by means of controlling macroalgae cover. Colony and algal coverages were measured at the beginning, middle and end of the experiment, and increments were calculated. Results indicated a general decrease in zoantharian colony sizes in contact with different algal types in the absence of sea urchins. However, P. caribaeorum colonies showed significant growth in the presence of D. africanum, highlighting the ecological importance of sea urchins in zoantharian population proliferation and subsequent community modification. This study represents the first investigation into zoantharian-macroalgae interactions under controlled conditions.

Genomic and Phenotypic Adaptations of Rattus tanezumi to Cold Limit Its Further Northward Expansion and Range Overlap with R. norvegicus

Global climate change has led to shifts in the distribution ranges of many terrestrial species, promoting their migration from lower altitudes or latitudes to higher ones. Meanwhile, successful invaders have developed genetic adaptations enabling the colonization of new environments. Over the past 40 years, Rattus tanezumi (RT) has expanded into northern China (Northwest and North China) from its southern origins. We studied the cold adaptation of RT and its potential for northward expansion by comparing it with sympatric Rattus norvegicus (RN), which is well adapted to cold regions. Through population genomic analysis, we revealed that the invading RT rats have split into three distinct populations: the North, Northwest, and Tibetan populations. The first two populations exhibited high genetic diversity, while the latter population showed remarkably low genetic diversity. These rats have developed various genetic adaptations to cold, arid, hypoxic, and high-UV conditions. Cold acclimation tests revealed divergent thermoregulation between RT and RN. Specifically, RT exhibited higher brown adipose tissue activity and metabolic rates than did RN. Transcriptome analysis highlighted changes in genes regulating triglyceride catabolic processes in RT, including Apoa1 and Apoa4, which were upregulated, under selection and associated with local adaptation. In contrast, RN showed changes in carbohydrate metabolism genes. Despite the cold adaptation of RT, we observed genotypic and phenotypic constraints that may limit its ability to cope with severe low temperatures farther north. Consequently, it is less likely that RT rats will invade and overlap with RN rats in farther northern regions.

When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities

Species range shifts due to changing ocean conditions are occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, we used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, we found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring shifts may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring.

Functional reorganization of North American wintering avifauna

Wintering birds serve as vital climate sentinels, yet they are often overlooked in studies of avian diversity change. Here, we provide a continental-scale characterization of change in multifaceted wintering avifauna and examine the effects of climate change on these dynamics. We reveal a strong functional reorganization of wintering bird communities marked by a north-south gradient in functional diversity change, along with a superimposed mild east-west gradient in trait composition change. Assemblages in the northern United States saw contractions of the functional space and increases in functional evenness and originality, while the southern United States saw smaller contractions of the functional space and stasis in evenness and originality. Shifts in functional diversity were underlined by significant reshuffling in trait composition, particularly pronounced in the western and northern United States. Finally, we find strong contributions of climate change to this functional reorganization, underscoring the importance of wintering birds in tracking climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Ecotoxicological and health risks associated with sediment-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in peri-urban closed and open coastal lagoons

Coastal urbanisation has ramifications for the sustainable development of developing nations. There are often unquantified ecological and health risks associated with urbanisation. Sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analysed in surface sediment from three peri-urban coastal lagoons in southern Ghana. We found significant spatial variations of sediment PAHs. These variations were attributed to physiography of the lagoons and diverse anthropogenic activities surrounding them. Total PAHs ranged from 20.81 to 24,801.38 μg/kg (dry weight), underscoring a low to very high pollution level. Diagnostic ratios revealed both pyrogenic and petrogenic origins. Over 50 % of individual PAHs were of moderate ecological risk to benthic organisms, and cancer risk to humans was above the World Health Organisation's recommended safety limit (1 × 10-6). These ecological and health risks should be wake-up call for a more integrated urban planning approach to coastal urbanisation as coastal communities largely depend on natural ecosystems for food and livelihood opportunities.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Differential Mitochondrial Genome Expression of Three Sympatric Lizards in Response to Low-Temperature Stress

Ecological factors related to climate extremes have a significant influence on the adaptability of organisms, especially for ectotherms such as reptiles that are sensitive to temperature change. Climate extremes can seriously affect the survival and internal physiology of lizards, sometimes even resulting in the loss of local populations or even complete extinction. Indeed, studies have shown that the expression levels of the nuclear genes and mitochondrial genomes of reptiles change under low-temperature stress. At present, the temperature adaptability of reptiles has rarely been studied at the mitochondrial genome level. In the present study, the mitochondrial genomes of three species of lizards, Calotes versicolor, Ateuchosaurus chinensis, and Hemidactylus bowringii, which live in regions of sympatry, were sequenced. We used RT-qPCR to explore the level of mitochondrial gene expression under low-temperature stress, as compared to a control temperature. Among the 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), the steady-state transcript levels of ND4L, ND1, ATP6, and COII were reduced to levels of 0.61 ± 0.06, 0.50 ± 0.08, 0.44 ± 0.16, and 0.41 ± 0.09 in C. versicolor, respectively, compared with controls. The transcript levels of the ND3 and ND6 genes fell to levels of just 0.72 ± 0.05 and 0.67 ± 0.05 in H. bowringii, compared with controls. However, the transcript levels of ND3, ND5, ND6, ATP6, ATP8, Cytb, and COIII genes increased to 1.97 ± 0.15, 2.94 ± 0.43, 1.66 ± 0.07, 1.59 ± 0.17, 1.46 ± 0.04, 1.70 ± 0.16, and 1.83 ± 0.07 in A. chinensis. Therefore, the differences in mitochondrial gene expression may be internally related to the adaptative strategy of the three species under low-temperature stress, indicating that low-temperature environments have a greater impact on A. chinensis, with a small distribution area. In extreme environments, the regulatory trend of mitochondrial gene expression in reptiles is associated with their ability to adapt to extreme climates, which means differential mitochondrial genome expression can be used to explore the response of different lizards in the same region to low temperatures. Our experiment aims to provide one new research method to evaluate the potential extinction of reptile species in warm winter climates.

Is the threatened land crab Cardisoma guanhumi conquering human-dominated systems?

Land use changes are heralded as a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, recent findings show that cities, perhaps the most radical habitat transformation, sustain increasing numbers of threatened species. This emerging trend has been mostly chronicled for vertebrates from landlocked cities, although loss of biodiversity and rates or urbanization are higher in coastal marine systems. To advance our understanding on how threatened species may conquer human-dominated systems, we studied the threatened edible crab Cardisoma guanhumi and assessed how it is proliferating in croplands and urban systems at different spatial scales and whether populations show consequences of long-term exploitation. We gathered the data on crab populations covering the whole distribution range, including three countries reporting this as a threatened species. The abundance, distribution, and size structure of crab populations among different land uses at local scales were compared and published data for populations thriving in different habitats throughout their distribution range were compiled. We found that at local scale this species is able to thrive in natural and human-disturbed habitats, where food sources are heavily altered. At larger scales, the species showed no differences in abundance and size structure among natural and anthropogenic habitats. In areas near the southern distribution edge, crab populations were more abundant and composed of larger animals in urban areas and croplands than those in natural habitats, suggesting that human-disturbed systems are stepping stones to extend the geographic range. However, we found a long-term reduction in maximum body size, exacerbated by land use changes, that likely reflects exploitation regimes consistently targeting larger crabs. Despite its status as a threatened species, the long history of human exploitation combined with livestock farming practices may explain the proliferation of this crab in human-dominated systems, which emphasize the need to consider conservation in human-dominated systems.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

Differences in spatial niche of terrestrial mammals when facing extreme snowfall: the case in east Asian forests

BACKGROUND

Recent climate changes have produced extreme climate events. This study focused on extreme snowfall and intended to discuss the vulnerability of temperate mammals against it through interspecies comparisons of spatial niches in northern Japan. We constructed niche models for seven non-hibernating species through wide-scaled snow tracking on skis, whose total survey length was 1144 km.

RESULTS

We detected a low correlation (rs < 0.4) between most pairs of species niches, indicating that most species possessed different overwintering tactics. A morphological advantage in locomotion cost on snow did not always expand niche breadth. In contrast, a spatial niche could respond to (1) drastic landscape change by a diminishing understory due to snow, possibly leading to changes in predator-prey interactions, and (2) the mass of cold air, affecting thermoregulatory cost and food accessibility. When extraordinary snowfall occurred, the nonarboreal species with larger body sizes could niche shift, whereas the smaller-sized or semi-arboreal mammals did not. In addition, compared to omnivores, herbivores were prone to severe restriction of niche breadth due to a reduction in food accessibility under extreme climates.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary habits and body size could determine the redundancy of niche width, which may govern robustness/vulnerability to extreme snowfall events.

Metabolic and microbial changes in light-vented bulbul during recent northward range expansion

Endotherms recently expanding to cold environments generally exhibit strong physiological acclimation to sustain high body temperature. During this process, gut microbes likely play a considerable role in host physiological functions, including digestion and thermogenesis. The light-vented bulbul Pycnonotus sinensis represents one such species. It used to be restricted to the Oriental realm but expanded its distribution range north to the Palearctic areas during the past few decades. Here, we explored the seasonal dynamics of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and microbiota for local and newly colonized populations of the species. Our results showed that the mass-adjusted RMR and body mass were positively correlated with latitude variations in both seasons. Consistently, the gut microbiota showed a corresponding variation to the northern cold environments. In the two northern populations, the alpha diversity decreased compared with those of the two southern populations. Significant differences were detected in dominant phyla, such as Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, and Desulfobacterota in both seasons. The core microbiota showed geographic differences in the winter, including the elevated relative abundance of 5 species in northern populations. Finally, to explore the link between microbial communities and host metabolic thermogenesis, we conducted a correlation analysis between microbiota and mass-adjusted RMR. We found that more genera were significantly correlated with mass-adjusted RMR in the wintering season compared to the breeding season (71 vs. 23). These results suggest that microbiota of the lighted-vented bulbul linked with thermogenesis in diversity and abundance under northward expansion.

Permethrin Contamination of Sawgrass Marshes and Potential Risk for the Imperiled Klot's Skipper Butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)

Nontarget effects from mosquito control operations are possible in habitats adjacent to areas targeted by ultra-low-volume (ULV) sprays of permethrin for adult mosquito control. We assessed the risks of permethrin exposure to butterflies, particularly the imperiled Klot's skipper, when exposed to ground-based ULV sprays. Samples of larval host plant leaves (sawgrass) were collected in June (in mosquito season) and January (outside mosquito season) of 2015 from sawgrass marsh habitats of the National Key Deer Wildlife Refuge (Big Pine Key, FL, USA) and analyzed for permethrin. Permethrin detection was higher in June (detected on 70% of samples) than in January (30%), and concentrations were significantly higher in June (geomean = 2.1 ng/g, median = 2.4) relative to January (0.4 ng/g, median = 0.2). Dietary risk for 4th to 5th-instar larvae was low based on the measured residues. The AGricultural DISPersal model (Ver. 8.26) was used to estimate permethrin residues on sawgrass following ULV sprays (deposited residues) to estimate immediate postspray risk. Estimated deposited residues (33-543 ng/g) were much higher than measured residues, which leads to a higher risk likelihood for butterfly larvae immediately after ULV sprays. The difference between estimated and measured residues, and between the two risk estimations, reflects uncertainty in risk estimates based on the measured residues. Research on modeling deposited pesticide residues following ground-based ULV spray is limited. More research on estimating deposited pesticide residues from truck-mounted ULV sprayers could help reduce uncertainty in the risk predictions for nontarget insects like butterflies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:267-278. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Shifts in population density centers of a hibernating mammal driven by conflicting effects of climate change and disease

Populations wax and wane over time in response to an organism's interactions with abiotic and biotic forces. Numerous studies demonstrate that fluctuations in local populations can lead to shifts in relative population densities across the geographic range of a species over time. Fewer studies attempt to disentangle the causes of such shifts. Over four decades (1983-2022), we monitored populations of hibernating Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in two areas separated by ~110 km. The number of bats hibernating in the northern area increased from 1983 to 2011, while populations in the southern area remained relatively constant. We used simulation models and long-term weather data to demonstrate the duration of time bats must rely on stored fat during hibernation has decreased in both areas over that period, but at a faster rate in the northern area. Likewise, increasing autumn and spring temperatures shortened the periods of sporadic prey (flying insect) availability at the beginning and end of hibernation. Climate change thus increased the viability of northern hibernacula for an increasing number of bats by decreasing energetic costs of hibernation. Then in 2011, white-nose syndrome (WNS), a disease of hibernating bats that increases energetic costs of hibernation, was detected in the area. From 2011 to 2022, the population rapidly decreased in the northern area and increased in the southern area, completely reversing the northerly shift in population densities associated with climate change. Energy balance during hibernation is the singular link explaining the northerly shift under a changing climate and the southerly shift in response to a novel disease. Continued population persistence suggests that bats may mitigate many impacts of WNS by hibernating farther south, where insects are available longer each year.

Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Phylogenetic diversity only weakly mitigates climate-change-driven biodiversity loss in insect communities

To help address the underrepresentation of arthropods and Asian biodiversity from climate-change assessments, we carried out year-long, weekly sampling campaigns with Malaise traps at different elevations and latitudes in Gaoligongshan National Park in southwestern China. From these 623 samples, we barcoded 10,524 beetles and compared scenarios of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss, by designating seasonal, elevational, and latitudinal subsets of beetles as communities that plausibly could go extinct as a group, which we call "loss sets". The availability of a published mitochondrial-genome-based phylogeny of the Coleoptera allowed us to compare the loss of species diversity with and without accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. We hypothesised that phylogenetic relatedness would mitigate extinction, since the extinction of any loss set would result in the disappearance of all its species but only part of its evolutionary history, which is still extant in the remaining loss sets. We found different patterns of community clustering by season and latitude, depending on whether phylogenetic information was incorporated. However, accounting for phylogeny only slightly mitigated the amount of biodiversity loss under climate change scenarios, against our expectations: there is no phylogenetic "escape clause" for biodiversity conservation. We achieve the same results whether phylogenetic information was derived from the mitogenome phylogeny or from a de novo barcode-gene tree. We encourage interested researchers to use this data set to study lineage-specific community assembly patterns in conjunction with life-history traits and environmental covariates.

Winter is coming: Interactions of multiple stressors in winter and implications for the natural world

Winter is a key driver of ecological processes in freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in higher latitudes. Species have evolved various adaptive strategies to cope with food limitations and the cold and dark wintertime. However, human-induced climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are impacting organisms in winter in unpredictable ways. In this paper, we show that global change experiments investigating multiple stressors have predominantly been conducted during summer months. However, effects of anthropogenic stressors sometimes differ between winter and other seasons, necessitating comprehensive investigations. Here, we outline a framework for understanding the different effects of anthropogenic stressors in winter compared to other seasons and discuss the primary mechanisms that will alter ecological responses of organisms (microbes, animals and plants). For instance, while the magnitude of some anthropogenic stressors can be greater in winter than in other seasons (e.g. some pollutants), others may alleviate natural winter stress (e.g. warmer temperatures). These changes can have immediate, delayed or carry-over effects on organisms during winter or later seasons. Interactions between stressors may also vary with season. We call for a renewed research direction focusing on multiple stressor effects on winter ecology and evolution to fully understand, and predict, how ecosystems will fare under changing winters. We also argue the importance of incorporating the interactions of anthropogenic stressors with winter into ecological risk assessments, management and conservation efforts.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Extent and impacts of winter breeding in the North American monarch butterfly

Since the 1960s, scientists have observed the North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) continuing reproductive activities past the fall migration and into the winter months when the climate is mild. Recent work suggests that small populations of winter breeding monarchs are present in western and southeastern USA, as well as northwestern Mexico, with new winter breeding populations forming in areas where non-native milkweeds are planted. The year-round presence of milkweed plants and temperatures suitable for immature monarch development are vital factors allowing for winter breeding. Non-native milkweeds, in conjunction with novel barriers to migration, are likely contributing to the rise in winter breeding behavior. Warmer climates are already impacting milkweed phenology and range, possibly favoring winter breeding behavior. Similar pressures but different implications are expected for eastern and western winter breeding monarchs given the differences in the migration ecology, milkweed species, and climate changes in the two regions.

Reductions in inhaler greenhouse gas emissions by addressing care gaps in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an analysis

INTRODUCTION

Climate change from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represents one of the greatest public health threats of our time. Inhalers (and particularly metred-dose inhalers (MDIs)) used for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), constitute an important source of GHGs. In this analysis, we aimed to estimate the carbon footprint impact of improving three distinct aspects of respiratory care that drive avoidable inhaler use in Canada.

METHODS

We used published data to estimate the prevalence of misdiagnosed disease, existing inhaler use patterns, medication class distributions, inhaler type distributions and GHGs associated with inhaler actuations, to quantify annual GHG emissions in Canada: (1) attributable to asthma and COPD misdiagnosis; (2) attributable to overuse of rescue inhalers due to suboptimally controlled symptoms; and (3) avoidable by switching 25% of patients with existing asthma and COPD to an otherwise comparable therapeutic option with a lower GHG footprint.

RESULTS

We identified the following avoidable annual GHG emissions: (1) ~49 100 GHG metric tons (MTs) due to misdiagnosed disease; (2) ~143 000 GHG MTs due to suboptimal symptom control; and (3) ~262 100 GHG MTs due to preferential prescription of strategies featuring MDIs over lower-GHG-emitting options (when 25% of patients are switched to lower GHG alternatives). Combined, the GHG emission reductions from bridging these gaps would be the equivalent to taking ~101 100 vehicles off the roads each year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis shows that the carbon savings from addressing misdiagnosis and suboptimal disease control are comparable to those achievable by switching one in four patients to lower GHG-emitting therapeutic strategies. Behaviour change strategies required to achieve and sustain delivery of evidence-based real-world care are complex, but the added identified incentive of carbon footprint reduction may in itself prove to be a powerful motivator for change among providers and patients. This additional benefit can be leveraged in future behaviour change interventions.

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change ("global change") are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modeled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how these model-projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999-2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005-2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modeled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages' intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies

Seasons impose different selection pressures on organisms through contrasting environmental conditions. How such seasonal evolutionary conflict is resolved in organisms whose lives span across seasons remains underexplored. Through field experiments, laboratory work, and citizen science data analyses, we investigate this question using two closely related butterflies (Pieris rapae and P. napi). Superficially, the two butterflies appear highly ecologically similar. Yet, the citizen science data reveal that their fitness is partitioned differently across seasons. Pieris rapae have higher population growth during the summer season but lower overwintering success than do P. napi. We show that these differences correspond to the physiology and behavior of the butterflies. Pieris rapae outperform P. napi at high temperatures in several growth season traits, reflected in microclimate choice by ovipositing wild females. Instead, P. rapae have higher winter mortality than do P. napi. We conclude that the difference in population dynamics between the two butterflies is driven by seasonal specialization, manifested as strategies that maximize gains during growth seasons and minimize harm during adverse seasons, respectively.

A review of the diet of the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) in the context of anthropogenic change

The common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) maintains a diverse, sanguivorous diet, utilizing a broad range of prey taxa. As anthropogenic change alters the distribution of this species, shifts in predator-prey interactions are expected. Understanding prey richness and patterns of prey selection is, thus, increasingly informative from ecological, epidemiological, and economic perspectives. We reviewed D. rotundus diet and assessed the geographical, taxonomical, and behavioral features to find 63 vertebrate species within 21 orders and 45 families constitute prey, including suitable host species in regions of invasion outside D. rotundus' range. Rodentia contained the largest number of species utilized by D. rotundus, though cattle were the most commonly reported prey source, likely linked to the high availability of livestock and visibility of bite wounds compared to wildlife. Additionally, there was tendency to predate upon species with diurnal activity and social behavior, potentially facilitating convenient and nocturnal predation. Our review highlights the dietary heterogeneity of D. rotundus across its distribution. We define D. rotundus as a generalist predator, or parasite, depending on the ecological definition of its symbiont roles in an ecosystem (i.e., lethal vs. non-lethal blood consumption). In view of the eminent role of D. rotundus in rabies virus transmission and its range expansion, an understanding of its ecology would benefit public health, wildlife management, and agriculture.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42991-023-00358-3.

Applied winter biology: threats, conservation and management of biological resources during winter in cold climate regions

Winter at high latitudes is characterized by low temperatures, dampened light levels and short photoperiods which shape ecological and evolutionary outcomes from cells to populations to ecosystems. Advances in our understanding of winter biological processes (spanning physiology, behaviour and ecology) highlight that biodiversity threats (e.g. climate change driven shifts in reproductive windows) may interact with winter conditions, leading to greater ecological impacts. As such, conservation and management strategies that consider winter processes and their consequences on biological mechanisms may lead to greater resilience of high altitude and latitude ecosystems. Here, we use well-established threat and action taxonomies produced by the International Union of Conservation of Nature-Conservation Measures Partnership (IUCN-CMP) to synthesize current threats to biota that emerge during, or as the result of, winter processes then discuss targeted management approaches for winter-based conservation. We demonstrate the importance of considering winter when identifying threats to biodiversity and deciding on appropriate management strategies across species and ecosystems. We confirm our expectation that threats are prevalent during the winter and are especially important considering the physiologically challenging conditions that winter presents. Moreover, our findings emphasize that climate change and winter-related constraints on organisms will intersect with other stressors to potentially magnify threats and further complicate management. Though conservation and management practices are less commonly considered during the winter season, we identified several potential or already realized applications relevant to winter that could be beneficial. Many of the examples are quite recent, suggesting a potential turning point for applied winter biology. This growing body of literature is promising but we submit that more research is needed to identify and address threats to wintering biota for targeted and proactive conservation. We suggest that management decisions consider the importance of winter and incorporate winter specific strategies for holistic and mechanistic conservation and resource management.

Variations of Supercooling Capacity in Intertidal Gastropods

Winter low-temperature confines species distribution. Intertidal gastropods are distributed from tropical to polar zones, facing variable intensities and durations of low temperatures. They usually set their supercooling points (SCPs) at high subzero temperatures to stimulate freezing. However, the variations in SCP in intertidal gastropods at intraspecific and interspecific levels remain poorly understood. Here, we measured the body size, cooling rate, and SCP of nine intertidal gastropod species in China. These species were distributed in high or middle intertidal zone with different geographic distributions. The average SCPs (-4.27~-7.10 °C) and the coefficients of variation of SCP (22.6%~45.9%) were high in all species. At the intraspecific level, the supercooling capacity was positively correlated with the cooling rate. Interspecifically, the supercooling capacity was closely related to the cooling rate, and also to the species' geographical distribution. Northern high-shore species showed lower SCPs, while southern high-shore species had higher SCPs. There was no difference in SCP between widespread high- and mid-shore species. Our results indicated that the supercooling capability is potentially an adaptative response to the local winter temperatures, and the cooling rate is a factor in determining the difference in SCP at the intraspecific and interspecific levels.

A palynological record of mangrove biogeography, coastal geomorphological change, and prehistoric human activities from Cedar Keys, Florida, U.S.A

Under the continuous warming trend in the 21st century, mangroves are likely to migrate into more temperate regions in North and South America. However, the biogeography of different mangrove species is still unclear, especially near their latitudinal range limits in the two continents. This study utilizes palynological, geochemical, and sedimentological analyses to record changes in the coastal morphology and vegetation during the Holocene in Cedar Keys, Florida, the mangrove sub-range limit in North America. The multi-proxy dataset indicates that the milder winters during the Medieval Climate Anomaly likely facilitated the establishment of mangroves in the study region, where Avicennia, Laguncularia, and Rhizophora were established in the ~12th (790-850 cal yr BP), ~14th (580-660 cal yr BP), and ~ 16th century (440-460 cal yr BP), respectively. Thus, the Medieval Climate Anomaly likely triggered the poleward mangrove migration in North and South America synchronously. Moreover, the multi-proxy dataset also documents the obliteration of the Woodland Culture near Cedar Keys, where a once-thriving native civilization on Seahorse Key was driven out by the European colonizers, who settled on the mainland and Atsena Otie Key. Over time, the relict sites of the Woodland people on Seahorse Key were covered by mangroves and marsh vegetation since the ~16th century. Overall, our dataset suggests that industrial-era warming may have intensified the poleward mangrove expansion, although this trend had started earlier during the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Patterns and drivers of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in the kelp forests of southern Patagonia

The kelp forests of southern Patagonia have a large diversity of habitats, with remote islands, archipelagos, peninsulas, gulfs, channels, and fjords, which are comprised of a mixture of species with temperate and sub-Antarctic distributions, creating a unique ecosystem that is among the least impacted on Earth. We investigated the distribution, diversity, and abundance of marine macroinvertebrate assemblages from the kelp forests of southern Patagonia over a large spatial scale and examined the environmental drivers contributing to the observed patterns in assemblage composition. We analyzed data from 120 quantitative underwater transects (25 x 2 m) conducted within kelp forests in the southern Patagonian fjords in the Kawésqar National Reserve (KNR), the remote Cape Horn (CH) and Diego Ramírez (DR) archipelagos of southern Chile, and the Mitre Peninsula (MP) and Isla de los Estados (IE) in the southern tip of Argentina. We observed rich assemblages of macroinvertebrates among these kelp forests, with a total of 185 unique taxa from 10 phyla and 23 classes/infraorders across the five regions. The number of taxa per transect was highest at IE, followed by MP, CH, and KNR, with the lowest number recorded at DR. The trophic structure of the macroinvertebrate assemblages was explained mostly by wave exposure (28% of the variation), followed by salinity (12%) and the KNR region (11%). KNR was most distinct from the other regions with a greater abundance of deposit feeders, likely driven by low salinity along with high turbidity and nutrients from terrigenous sources and glacial melt. Our study provides the first broad-scale description of the benthic assemblages associated with kelp forests in this vast and little-studied region and helps to establish baselines for an area that is currently lightly influenced by local anthropogenic factors and less impacted by climate change compared with other kelp forests globally.

Climate driven disruption of transitional alpine bumble bee communities

Pollinators at high elevations face multiple threats from climate change including heat stress, failure to phenological match advancing flower resources and competitive pressure from range-expanding species of lower elevations. We conducted long-term multi-site surveys of alpine bumble bees to determine how phenology of range-stable and range-expanding species is responding to climate change. We ask whether bumble bee responses generate mismatches with floral resources, and whether these mismatches in turn promote community disruption and potential species replacement. In alpine environments of the central Rocky Mountains, range-stable and range-expanding bumble bees exhibit phenological mismatches with flowering host plants due to earlier flowering of preferred resources under warmer spring temperatures. However, workers of range-stable species are more canalised in their foraging schedules, exploiting a relatively narrow portion of the flowering season. Specifically, range-stable species show less variance in phenology in response to temporally and spatially changing conditions than range-expanding ones. Because flowering duration drives the seasonal abundance of floral resources at the landscape scale, we hypothesize that canalisation of phenology in alpine bumble bees could reduce their access to earlier or later season flowers. Warmer conditions are decreasing abundances of range-stable alpine bumble bees above the timberline, increasing abundance of range-expanding species, and facilitating a novel and more species-diverse bumble bee community. However, this trend is not explained by greater phenological mismatch of range-stable bees. Results suggest that conversion of historic habitats for cold-adapted alpine bumble bee species into refugia for more heat-tolerant congeners is disrupting bumble bee communities at high elevations, though the precise mechanisms accounting for these changes are not yet known. If warming continues, we predict that the transient increase in diversity due to colonization by historically low-elevation species will likely give way to declines of alpine bumble bees in the central Rocky Mountains.

Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments

The host spectrum of viruses is quite diverse, as they can sustainedly infect a few species to several phyla. When confronted with a new host, a virus may even infect it and transmit sustainably in this new host, a process called ‘viral spillover’. However, the risk of such events is difficult to quantify. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, we resorted to a metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake’s virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.

Environmental Drivers of Gulf Coast Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) Range Expansion in the United States

In the United States, the Gulf Coast tick (Amblyomma maculatum Koch) is a species of growing medical and veterinary significance, serving as the primary vector of the pathogenic bacterium, Rickettsia parkeri (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae), in humans and the apicomplexan parasite, Hepatozoon americanum, in canines. Ongoing reports of A. maculatum from locations outside its historically reported distribution in the southeastern United States suggest the possibility of current and continuing range expansion. Using an ecological niche modeling approach, we combined new occurrence records with high-resolution climate and land cover data to investigate environmental drivers of the current distribution of A. maculatum in the United States. We found that environmental suitability for A. maculatum varied regionally and was primarily driven by climatic factors such as annual temperature variation and seasonality of precipitation. We also found that presence of A. maculatum was associated with open habitat with minimal canopy cover. Our model predicts large areas beyond the current distribution of A. maculatum to be environmentally suitable, suggesting the possibility of future northward and westward range expansion. These predictions of environmental suitability may be used to identify areas at potential risk for establishment and to guide future surveillance of A. maculatum in the United States.

Using temporal genomics to understand contemporary climate change responses in wildlife

Monitoring the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing global climate change is critical for informing conservation. Population genomic studies that use samples from multiple time points ("temporal genomics") are uniquely able to make direct observations of change over time. Consequently, only temporal studies can show genetic erosion or spatiotemporal changes in population structure. Temporal genomic studies directly examining climate change effects are currently rare but will likely increase in the coming years due to their high conservation value. Here, we highlight four key genetic indicators that can be monitored using temporal genomics to understand how species are responding to climate change. All indicators crucially rely on having a suitable baseline that accurately represents the past condition of the population, and we discuss aspects of study design that must be considered to achieve this.

Climate drives coupled regime shifts across subtropical estuarine ecosystems

Ecological regime shifts are expected to increase this century as climate change propagates cascading effects across ecosystems with coupled elements. Here, we demonstrate that the climate-driven salt marsh-to-mangrove transition does not occur in isolation but is linked to lesser-known oyster reef-to-mangrove regime shifts through the provision of mangrove propagules. Using aerial imagery spanning 82 y, we found that 83% of oyster reefs without any initial mangrove cover fully converted to mangrove islands and that mean (± SD) time to conversion was 29.1 ± 9.6 y. In situ assessments of mangrove islands suggest substantial changes in ecosystem structure during conversion, while radiocarbon dates of underlying reef formation indicate that such transitions are abrupt relative to centuries-old reefs. Rapid transition occurred following release from freezes below the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) physiological tolerance limit (-7.3 °C) and after adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Additional nonclimate-mediated drivers of ecosystem change were also identified, including oyster reef exposure to wind-driven waves. Coupling of regime shifts arises from the growing supply of mangrove propagules from preceding and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Climate projections near the mangrove range limit on the Gulf coast of Florida suggest that regime shifts will begin to transform subtropical estuaries by 2070 if propagule supply keeps pace with predicted warming. Although it will become increasingly difficult to maintain extant oyster habitat with tropicalization, restoring oyster reefs in high-exposure settings or active removal of mangrove seedlings could slow the coupled impacts of climate change shown here.

Consistent Site-Specific Foraging Behaviours of Yellow-eyed Penguins/Hoiho Breeding on Stewart Island, New Zealand

Simple Summary

The yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) is endemic to New Zealand and has declined c. 72% since 2008/09 within its mainland range. Population monitoring suggests yellow-eyed penguins are tracking below even the most pessimistic scenario modelled, indicating stressors may not be accurately quantified or underestimated. Fisheries-related bycatch, particularly in gillnets, has been identified as a significant contributor to the species’ decline. Mortality mitigation measures exist for penguins breeding on South Island, with a four nautical mile gillnet exclusion zone in place. Penguins breeding on Stewart Island have no protection, leaving them vulnerable to capture and drowning in gillnets. We use GPS-TDR loggers attached to adult breeding penguins from three sites across Stewart Island to track their at-sea activity, diving behaviour, and investigate the degree of foraging plasticity displayed across this range. Penguins from each site showed significant differences in their preferred habitat use and were consistent between trips and years. Results here show that foraging locations at one site cannot be used to assess habitat use by penguins at other sites. The intra-site and inter-annual consistency in preferred foraging locations observed in Stewart Island penguins reveal that implementation of marine protection may be effective in eliminating fisheries-related mortality and reduce the risk of local extinction.

Abstract

The endangered yellow-eyed penguin/hoiho (Megadyptes antipodes) predominantly forages benthically within its mainland range and shows high foraging site fidelity. Identifying consistencies in foraging locations can allow effective conservation, especially when managing bycatch risk. This study investigated the at-sea distribution of penguins breeding on Stewart Island to explore site-specific foraging strategies and inform fisheries management. During the 2020/21 season, 19 adult breeding yellow-eyed penguins from Port Pegasus, Paterson Inlet, and Codfish Island were fitted with GPS-TDR dive loggers to track their movements and diving behaviours. A total of 25,696 dives were recorded across 91 foraging trips. Birds from Port Pegasus reached significantly greater depths, spent longer at the seafloor, and performed longer dives. They also had the smallest foraging distribution, with most activity concentrated inshore. Compared to Port Pegasus, foraging radii and trip lengths were twice as large for Paterson Inlet and four times larger at Codfish Island. Despite differences in available foraging habitat, considerable individual and intra-site consistency for preferred foraging locations was observed. Localised behaviour and inter-site differences in dive metrics suggest significant plasticity in foraging ecology across their mainland range; however, individual behaviour and preferred foraging locations were extremely predictable. Thus, risk of mortality from fisheries can be quantified and managed accordingly.

Maximization of fitness by phenological and phenotypic plasticity in range expanding rabbitfish (Siganidae)

Global warming is modifying the phenology, life‐history traits and biogeography of species around the world. Evidence of these effects have increased over recent decades; however, we still have a poor understanding of the possible outcomes of their interplay across global climatic gradients, hindering our ability to accurately predict the consequences of climate change in populations and ecosystems.

We examined the effect that changes in biogeography can have on the life‐history traits of two of the most successful range‐extending fish species in the world: the tropical rabbitfishes Siganus fuscescens and Siganus rivulatus. Both species have established abundant populations at higher latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres and have been identified as important ecological engineers with the potential to alter the community structure of seaweed forests (Laminariales and Fucales) in temperate regions.

Life‐history trait information from across their global distribution was compiled from the published literature and meta‐analyses were conducted to assess changes in (i) the onset and duration of reproductive periods, (ii) size at maturity, (iii) fecundity, (iv) growth rates, (v) maximum body sizes and (vi) longevity in populations at the leading edge of range expansion in relation to sea surface temperature and primary productivity (a common proxy for nutritional resource levels).

Populations at highest latitudes had shortened their reproductive periods and reduced growth rates, taking longer to reach sexual maturity and maximum sizes, but compensated this with higher fecundity per length class and longer lifespans than populations in warmer environments. Low primary productivity and temperature in the Mediterranean Sea resulted in lower growth rates and body sizes for S. rivulatus, but also lower length at maturity, increasing life‐time reproductive output.

The results suggest that plasticity in the phenology and life‐history traits of range‐expanding species would be important to enhance their fitness in high latitude environments, facilitating their persistence and possible further poleward expansions. Quantifying the magnitude and direction of these responses can improve our understanding and ability to forecast species redistributions and its repercussions in the functioning of temperate ecosystems.

Variability between observers does not hamper detecting change over time in a temperate reef

Marine ecosystems are subject to global and local impacts, both contributing to dramatic changes in coastal communities. Assessing such changes requires time series or the revisitation of sites first surveyed in the past. In both cases, data are not necessarily collected by the same observers, which could lead to a bias in the results. In the Marine Protected Area (MPA) of Capo Carbonara (Sardinia, Italy), established in 1998, rocky reef communities were first assessed in 2000 by two diving scientists. Twenty years later, the same rocky reefs were resurveyed using the same method by two other diving scientists. In both surveys, semi-quantitative data on conspicuous species were collected at five sites in four depth zones, providing the possibility of assessing change over time. To explore the influence of climate and local pressures, existing data on sea surface temperature, resident population, tourism and diving activities were analysed. The reef communities of the Capo Carbonara MPA have distinctly changed over time, mostly under the effect of seawater warming, as highlighted by the occurrence of thermophilic species and by other climate-related indicators. On the other side, species vulnerable to local human pressures have increased over time, demonstrating the effectiveness of the protection measures undertaken by the MPA. Comparing data collected by four different observers in the two periods demonstrated that change over time was significantly greater than variability between the observers.