Accelerated increase in vegetation carbon sequestration in China after 2010: A turning point resulting from climate and human interaction

The ecological utility study on carbon metabolism of cultivated land: A case study of Hubei Province, China

Exploring the ecological utility of cultivated land's carbon metabolism offers policy insights for ensuring its healthy operation and promote the dual carbon goals (carbon peak and carbon neutrality). We employed ecological network analysis (ENA) and kernel density estimation to conduct an empirical study, taking Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 as an example. The results revealed apparent negative effects of carbon metabolic flow on regional carbon balance. Specifically, cultivated land conversion into transportation and industrial land contributed significantly to the harmful carbon flow. Ecological relationships showed fierce competition for carbon storage, leading to overall adverse ecological effects. The ecological utility indicated detrimental impacts on the orderly functioning of land-use carbon metabolism. Cultivated land's carbon metabolism will be essential in achieving land-use carbon neutrality. Therefore, territorial spatial low-carbon optimization should be implemented to realize its green and sustainable development.

Modeling the carbon dynamics of ecosystem in a typical permafrost area

Climate change poses mounting threats to fragile alpine ecosystem worldwide. Quantifying changes in carbon stocks in response to the shifting climate was important for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study utilized a process-based land model (Community Land Model 5.0) to analyze spatiotemporal variations in vegetation carbon stock (VCS) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) across a typical permafrost area - Qinghai Province, China, from 2000 to 2018. Multiple potential factors influencing carbon stocks dynamics were analyzed, including climate, vegetation, soil hydrothermal status, and soil properties. The results indicated that provincial vegetation carbon storage was 0.22 PgC (0.32 kg/m2) and soil organic carbon pool was 9.12 PgC (13.03 kg/m2). VCS showed a mild increase while SOCS exhibited fluctuating uptrends during this period. Higher carbon stocks were observed in forest (21.74 kg/m2) and alpine meadow (18.08 kg/m2) compared to alpine steppes (9.63 kg/m2). Over 90 % of the carbon was stored in the 0-30 cm topsoil layer. The contribution rates of soil carbon in the 30-60 cm and 60-100 cm soil layers were significantly small, despite increasing stocks across all depths. Solar radiation, temperature, and NDVI emerged as primary influential factors for overall carbon stocks, exhibiting noticeable spatial variability. For SOCS at different depths, the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) was the foremost predictor of landscape-level carbon distributions, which explained 52.8 % of SOCS variability in shallow layers (0-30 cm) but dropped to just 12.97 % at the depth of 30-60 cm. However, the dominance of NDVI diminished along the soil depth gradients, superseded by radiation and precipitation. Additionally, with an increase in soil depth, the influence of inherent soil properties also increased. This simulation provided crucial insights for landscape-scale carbon responses to climate change, and offered valuable reference for other climate change-sensitive areas in terms of ecosystem carbon management.

Global evapotranspiration from high-elevation mountains has decreased significantly at a rate of 3.923 %/a over the last 22 years

Clarifying the responses of human activities and climate change to the water cycle under variable environments is crucial for accurately assessing regional water balance. An analysis of the changes in actual evapotranspiration and its driving factors was conducted in the global high-elevation mountains during the period from 2001 to 2022. Utilizing 18 formulas for calculating evapotranspiration, which are based on comprehensive, temperature, radiation, and mass transfer, and then simulated the variations in reference evapotranspiration. Furthermore, we optimized the ET simulation model based on the most effective simulation results and projected future changes using scenario simulation data. Our findings reveal that: 1) ET at high-elevation mountains has significantly decreased at an average rate of 3.923 %/a, with monthly values ranging from 31.179 to 33.652 mm and an average of 32.646 mm; 2) The radiation-based model of Irmark-Allen is particularly well-suited for simulating ET at high-elevation mountains, with precision analysis and the Taylor diagram confirming its superior simulation performance. After optimizing the model using the method of least squares, the value of R2 before and after the optimization were 0.633 and 0.853, respectively. 3) An upward trend in ET under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenario in future simulation projections. Attribution analysis has identified Vapor Pressure Deficit as the key positive driver influencing the change of ET in global high-elevation mountains. Structural equation modeling further reveals that variations in net radiation and precipitation play a significant role in altering evapotranspiration rates. Meanwhile，The water balance analysis reveals that ET has been declining from 2001 to 2022. This phenomenon can be largely attributed to the substantial decline in vapor pressure deficit, the rise in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index signifying increased vegetation cover, and the reduction in shallow soil moisture during the same period. These factors collectively explain the notable decrease in ET observed in high-elevation mountains.

Green space exposure and Chinese residents' physical activity participation: empirical evidence from a health geography perspective

Background

With continuous efforts made to promote the strategic goals of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, it is crucial to meet the growing and diversified needs of the public for fitness by practicing the concept of green development and promote the combination of national fitness and ecological civilization.

Methods

To achieve this purpose, an OLS regression model was applied to estimate the role of green space exposure in Chinese residents' participation in physical activity and its underlying mechanisms, using the microdata from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) data and the Provincial Vegetation Cover Index (NDVI) matched macrostatistical data.

Results

The empirical results show that green space exposure significantly increases the probability of residents' physical activity participation, and creating a green environment is conducive to creating a favorable physical activity environment for residents. Also, the core conclusions still hold after the year-by-year regression test is passed and the endogeneity problem is addressed. As revealed by mechanistic studies, green space exposure has indirect effects on the physical activity participation of residents through the independent mediating roles of reducing carbon emissions and promoting social interaction. According to heterogeneity results, males, those in marriage, and urban dweller groups are more inclined to perform physical activity in green spaces.

Conclusion

The results show that the exposure of green space can help increase the probability of residents' participation in physical exercise, and can that it achieved through two channels: reducing carbon emissions and enhancing social interaction. It is necessary to further strengthen the protection of the ecological lifestyle, give full play to the advantages of greenness and low-carbon, and create favorable conditions for the green development of a new model of national fitness.

Evaluating net primary productivity dynamics and their response to land-use change in the loess plateau after the 'Grain for Green' program

Assessing net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics and the contribution of land-use change (LUC) to NPP can help guide scientific policy to better restore and control the ecological environment. Since 1999, the "Green for Grain" Program (GGP) has strongly affected the spatial and temporal pattern of NPP on the Loess Plateau (LP); however, the multifaceted impact of phased vegetation engineering measures on NPP dynamics remains unclear. In this study, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model was used to simulate NPP dynamics and quantify the relative contributions of LUC and climate change (CC) to NPP under two different scenarios. The results showed that the average NPP on the LP increased from 240.7 gC·m-2 to 422.5 gC·m-2 from 2001 to 2020, with 67.43% of the areas showing a significant increasing trend. LUC was the main contributor to NPP increases during the study period, and precipitation was the most important climatic factor affecting NPP dynamics. The cumulative amount of NPP change caused by LUC (ΔNPPLUC) showed a fluctuating growth trend (from 46.23 gC·m-2 to 127.25 gC·m-2), with a higher growth rate in period ΙΙ (2010-2020) than in period Ι (2001-2010), which may be related to the accumulation of vegetation biomass and the delayed effect of the GGP on NPP. The contribution rate of LUC to increased NPP in periods Ι and ΙΙ was 101.2% and 51.2%, respectively. Regarding the transformation mode, the transformation of grassland to forest had the greatest influence on ΔNPPLUC. Regarding land-use type, the increased efficiency of NPP was improved in cropland, grassland, and forest. This study provides a scientific basis for the scientific management and development of vegetation engineering measures and regional sustainable development.

Satellite observed dryland greening in Asian endorheic basins: Drivers and implications to sustainable development

A large portion of Central-Western Asia is made up of contiguous closed basins, collectively termed as the Asian Endorheic Basins (AEBs). As these retention basins are only being replenished by the intermittent and scarce rainfall, global warming coupled with ever-rising human demand for water is exerting unprecedented pressures on local water and ecological security. Recent studies revealed a persistent and widespread water storage decline across the AEBs, yet the response of dryland vegetation to this recent hydroclimatic trend and a spatially explicit partitioning of the impact into the hydroclimatic factors and human activities remain largely unknown. To fill in this knowledge gap, we conducted trend and partial correlation analysis of vegetation and hydroclimatic change from 2001 to 2021 using multi-satellite observations, including vegetation greenness, total water storage anomalies (TWSA) and meteorological data. Here we show that much of the AEB (65.53 %), encompassing Mongolia Plateau, Northwest China, Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and Western Asia (except the Arabian Peninsula), exhibited a significant greening trend over the past two decades. In arid AEB, precipitation dominated the vegetation productivity trend. Such a rainfall dominance gave way to TWSA dominance in the hyper-arid AEB. We further showed that the decoupling of rainfall and hyper-arid vegetation greening was largely due to a significant expansion (17.3 %) in irrigated cropland across the hyper-arid AEB. Given the extremely harsh environment in the AEB, our results therefore raised a significant concern on the ecological and societal sustainability in this region, where a mild increase in precipitation cannot catch up the rising evaporative demand and water consumption resulted from global warming and agriculture intensification.

Carbon fluxes of China's coastal wetlands and impacts of reclamation and restoration

Coastal wetlands play an important role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and contribute significantly to climate change mitigation. However, climate change, reclamation, and restoration have been causing substantial changes in coastal wetland areas and carbon exchange in China during recent decades. Here we compiled a carbon flux database consisting of 15 coastal wetland sites to assess the magnitude, patterns, and drivers of carbon fluxes and to compare fluxes among contrasting natural, disturbed, and restored wetlands. The natural coastal wetlands have the average net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) of -577 g C m-2 year-1, with -821 g C m-2 year-1 for mangrove forests and -430 g C m-2 year-1 for salt marshes. There are pronounced latitudinal patterns for carbon dioxide exchange of natural coastal wetlands: NEE increased whereas gross primary production (GPP) and respiration of ecosystem decreased with increasing latitude. Distinct environmental factors drive annual variations of GPP between mangroves and salt marshes; temperature was the dominant controlling factor in salt marshes, while temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were co-dominant in mangroves. Meanwhile, both anthropogenic reclamation and restoration had substantial effects on coastal wetland carbon fluxes, and the effect of the anthropogenic perturbation in mangroves was more extensive than that in salt marshes. Furthermore, from 1980 to 2020, anthropogenic reclamation of China's coastal wetlands caused a carbon loss of ~3720 Gg C, while the mangrove restoration project during the period of 2021-2025 may switch restored coastal wetlands from a carbon source to carbon sink with a net carbon gain of 73 Gg C. The comparison of carbon fluxes among these coastal wetlands can improve our understanding of how anthropogenic perturbation can affect the potentials of coastal blue carbon in China, which has implications for informing conservation and restoration strategies and efforts of coastal wetlands.

Carbon cycle responses to climate change across China's terrestrial ecosystem: Sensitivity and driving process

Investigations into the carbon cycle and how it responds to climate change at the national scale are important for a comprehensive understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle and global change issues. Contributions of carbon fluxes to the terrestrial sink and the effects on climate change are still not fully understood. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between ecosystem production (GPP/SIF/NDVI) and net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and to investigate the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate change at different spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, we sought to delve into the carbon cycle processes driven by climate stress in China since the beginning of the 21st century. To achieve these objectives, we employed correlation and sensitivity analysis techniques, utilizing a wide range of data sources including ground-based observations, remote sensing observations, atmospheric inversions, machine learning, and model simulations. Our findings indicate that NEE in most arid regions of China is primarily driven by ecosystem production. Climate variations have a greater influence on ecosystem production than respiration. Warming has negatively impacted ecosystem production in Northeast China, as well as in subtropical and tropical regions. Conversely, increased precipitation has strengthened the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly in the northern cool and dry areas. We also found that ecosystem respiration exhibits heightened sensitivity to warming in southern China. Moreover, our analysis revealed that the control of terrestrial carbon cycle by ecosystem production gradually weakens from cold/arid areas to warm/humid areas. We identified distinct temperature thresholds (ranging from 10.5 to 13.7 °C) and precipitation thresholds (approximately 1400 mm yr-1) for the transition from production-dominated to respiration-dominated processes. Our study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between climate change and carbon cycle in China.

Research on the sustainability of "greening" process in the Mu Us Sandy Land based on the spatiotemporal stability of ecological land

In environmentally sensitive areas, especially the arid and semi-arid regions, the greening stability process and its influencing factors can directly affect the sustainable development of the ecological environment. In this study, multi-source remote sensing data such as land use/cover data, MODIS NDVI, and soil moisture, methods such as stability index, vegetation quantitative remote sensing, and Geodetector were employed to analyze the sustainability of the greening process in the Mu Us Sandy in 2000-2020, which were viewed from three aspects: changes in stability of land use types and function, soil moisture change and influencing factors on greening stability. The results showed that, (1) From the stability of land use types, continuous stable ecological land accounted for more than 50%, showing that decreased from northwest toward southeast. (2) From the functional stability, NDVI showed a fluctuated growth (0.035/a), with an increasing distribution pattern from northwest to southeast. Additionally, Vegetation changes were unstable and concentrated in the western part of the study area (OtogBanner and Otog Front Banner), while the eastern part was stable, in which vegetation improvement took the main position. Moreover, mobile dunes almost disappeared, and semi-fixed dunes decreased and gradually shrank to the west of the sandy area, while fixed dunes soared and were concentrated in the middle of the sandy land. (3) From the soil moisture change, soil moisture at different underground depths showed an overall increasing trend, but the deep soil moisture was higher than the shallow, and spatial distribution varied greatly. (4) From the influencing factors, natural factors significantly influence greening stability, among which precipitation had a particularly profound impact, and interactions with other natural and social factors were higher explanatory. The paper aims to explore whether the ecological environment is developing in a good and orderly direction in the Mu Us Sandy Land, and the potential factors that cause its changes, to provide a theoretical basis for scientific governance in the Mu Us Sandy Land and other arid and semi-arid areas in the future.

Imbalance in lake variability but not embodying driving factors on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau calls on heterogeneous lake management

Comprehensive regional remote analysis tends to neglect lakes in exorheic basins on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), and a concurrent lack of discussions on whether there exist imbalanced explanations for the driving forces of both internal and external lakes is also present. We integrate multisourced lake datasets, high-resolution information, and available altimetry datasets to establish multiple mathematical models to meta-simulate lake volume changes, extend current lake variation datasets, and quantify the imbalance of variations and factors driving the water mass budget. The results showed that the primary cause of lake variations in QTP is net precipitation (57.75 ± 31.46%), followed by glacier runoff (33.53 ± 31.42%), and permafrost (8.34 ± 7.87%). Even though glacier runoff is currently considered as a weak factor of lake variation, heterogeneous results call for remaining attention in glacier-induced lake basins. Imbalance embodying in lake variability but not in contributions of driving factors, which calls for special lake management ways in different watersheds.

Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Inland River Basins under the influence of ecological water transfer project: A case study on the Tarim River basin

Ecosystem services (ESs) are the largest benefits that humans derive directly or indirectly from ecosystems. Inland river basins in arid zones have a variety of key ecosystem functions. At present, inland river basins are experiencing a decline in ESs, such as shrinking lakes, land degradation, and rapid biodiversity loss. In order to address these problems, several ecological restoration projects (ERPs) have been implemented. Therefore, this study selected the Tarim River Basin (TRB), which is highly affected by the ecological water transfer project (EWTP), as the study area, and quantified the differences in ESs caused by the implementation of the EWTP through different scenarios of simulation, and discussed the impact of the EWTP in changing the ESs of the basin. Compared to the pre-EWTP period (1990-1999), the major ESs within the basin showed varying degrees of improvement. Water yield increased by 18 %, carbon sequestration increased by 2 %, wind prevention and sand fixation increased by 13 %, habitat quality increased by 8 %, and food production increased by 35 %. EWTP has shown positive impacts by directly or indirectly affecting runoff, vegetation, evapotranspiration, and landscape patterns, which in turn improves the comprehensive benefits of ESs in the TRB. The implementation of EWTP plays an important role in restoring ESs in inland river basins, and this study provides a key reference for the restoration of ESs in inland river basins in arid zones.

Satellite-observed increasing coupling between vegetation productivity and greenness in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China is not captured by process-based models

Global vegetation has experienced notable changes in greenness and productivity since the early 1980s. However, the changes in the relationship between productivity and greenness, i.e., the coupling, and its underlying mechanisms, are poorly understood. The Loess Plateau (LP) is one of China's most significant areas for vegetation greening. Yet, it remains poorly documented what changes in the coupling between productivity and greenness are and how environmental and anthropogenic factors affect this coupling in the LP over the past four decades. We investigated the interannual trend of coupling between Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Leaf Area Index (LAI), i.e., the GPP-LAI coupling, and its response to climate factors and afforestation in the LP using long-term remote-sensed LAI, GPP and Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF). We found a monotonically increasing trend in the GPP-LAI coupling in the LP from 1982 to 2018 (0.0043 yr-1, p < 0.05), in which the significant trend in the northwest LP was driven by increasing soil water and landcover change, e.g., increased grassland and afforestation. An ensemble of 11 state-of-the-art ecosystem models from the TRENDY project failed to capture the observed monotonically increasing trend of the GPP-LAI coupling in the LP. The consistent projection of a decreasing GPP-LAI coupling in LP during 2019-2100 by 22 Earth System Models (ESMs) under various future scenarios should be treated with caution due to the identified inherent uncertainties in the ecosystem component in ESMs and the notable biases in the simulation of future climate conditions. Our study highlights the need to enhance the key mechanisms that regulate the coupling relationships between photosynthesis and canopy structure in indigenized ecosystem models to accurately estimate the ecosystem change in drylands under global climate change.

Reduced Carbon Dioxide by Overexpressing EPSPS Transgene in Arabidopsis and Rice: Implications in Carbon Neutrality through Genetically Engineered Plants

With the increasing challenges of climate change caused by global warming, the effective reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) becomes an urgent environmental issue for the sustainable development of human society. Previous reports indicated increased biomass in genetically engineered (GE) Arabidopsis and rice overexpressing the 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPS) gene, suggesting the possibility of consuming more carbon by GE plants. However, whether overexpressing the EPSPS gene in GE plants consumes more CO2 remains a question. To address this question, we measured expression of the EPSPS gene, intercellular CO2 concentration, photosynthetic ratios, and gene expression (RNA-seq and RT-qPCR) in GE (overexpression) and non-GE (normal expression) Arabidopsis and rice plants. Results showed substantially increased EPSPS expression accompanied with CO2 consumption in the GE Arabidopsis and rice plants. Furthermore, overexpressing the EPSPS gene affected carbon-fixation related biological pathways. We also confirmed significant upregulation of four key carbon-fixation associated genes, in addition to increased photosynthetic ratios, in all GE plants. Our finding of significantly enhanced carbon fixation in GE plants overexpressing the EPSPS transgene provides a novel strategy to reduce global CO2 for carbon neutrality by genetic engineering of plant species, in addition to increased plant production by enhanced photosynthesis.

Urbanization expands the fluctuating difference in gross primary productivity between urban and rural areas from 2000 to 2018 in China

Urban and rural vegetation are affected by both climate change and human activities, but the role of urbanization in vegetation productivity is unclear given the dual impacts. Here, we delineated urban area (UA) and rural area (RA), quantified the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on gross primary production (GPP) in 34 major cities (MCs) in China from 2000 to 2018, and analyzed the intrinsic impacts of urbanization on GPP. First, we found that the total urban impervious surface coverage (ISC) of the 34 MCs increased by 13.25 % and the mean annual GPP increased by 211 gC m-2 during the study period. GPP increased significantly in urban core areas, but decreased significantly in urban expansion areas, which was mainly due to a large amount of vegetation loss due to land use conversion. Second, the variability of GPP in UA was generally lower than in RA. Both climate change and human activities had a positive impact on GPP in UA and RA in the 34 MCs, of which the contribution was 49 % and 51 % in UA, and 76 % and 24 % in RA, respectively. Third, under climate change and human activities, the increase in GPP offset 4.96 % and 12.35 % of the impact of land use conversion on GPP in 2000 and 2018, respectively, which indicated that the offset strengthened over time. These findings emphasize the role of human activities in promoting carbon sequestration in urban vegetation, which is crucial for better understanding the processes and mechanisms of urban carbon cycles. Decision-makers can manage urban vegetation based on vegetation carbon sequestration potential as regions urbanize, aiding comprehensive decision-making.

China's current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future

Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly reduces the buildup of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change. Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age. Here, we predict the role of China's current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution (30 m) forest age map in 2019 over China's landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots. As China's forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands, we project that China's forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years. However, as the forests grow older, their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0% ± 1.4% in 2050, 8.4% ± 1.6% in 2060, and 16.6% ± 2.8% in 2100, indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future. The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation. This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.

Effects of forest management practices on carbon dynamics of China's boreal forests under changing climates

Climate change and forest management practices influence forest productivity and carbon budgets, and understanding their interactions is necessary to develop accurate predictions of carbon dynamics as many countries in the world strive towards carbon neutrality. Here, we developed a model-coupling framework to simulate the carbon dynamics of boreal forests in China. The expected dynamics of forest recovery and change following intense timber harvesting in the recent past and projected carbon dynamics into the future under different climate change scenarios and forest management practices (e.g., restoration, afforestation, tending, and fuel management). We predict that under current management strategies, climate change would lead to increased fire frequency and intensity, eventually shifting these forests from carbon sinks towards being carbon sources. This study suggests that future boreal forest management should be altered to reduce the probability of fire occurrence and carbon losses caused by catastrophic fires through planting deciduous species, mechanical removal, and prescribed fire.

Impact assessment of urbanization on vegetation net primary productivity: A case study of the core development area in central plains urban agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization process has a negative or positive impact on vegetation growth. Net primary productivity (NPP) is an effective indicator to characterize vegetation growth status. Taking the core development area of the Central Plains urban agglomeration as the study area, we estimated the NPP and its change trend in the past four decades using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and statistical analysis based on meteorological and multi-source remote sensing data. Meanwhile, combined with the urbanization impact framework, we further analyzed urbanization's direct and indirect impact on NPP. The results showed that the urban area increased by 2688 km² during a high-speed urbanization process from 1983 to 2019. As a result of the intense urbanization process, a continuous NPP decrease (direct impact) can be seen, which aggravated along with the acceleration of the urban expansion, and the mean value of direct impact was 130.84 g C·m^-2·a^-1. Meanwhile, urbanization also had a positive impact on NPP (indirect impact). The indirect impact showed an increasing trend during urbanization with a mean value of 10.91 g C·m^-2·a^-1. The indirect impact was mainly related to temperature in climatic factors. The indirect impact has a seasonal heterogeneity, and high-temperature environments of urban areas are more effective in promoting vegetation growth in autumn and winter than in summer. Among different cities, high-speed development cities have higher indirect impact values than medium's and low's because of better ecological construction. This study is of great significance for understanding the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth in the Central Plains urban agglomeration area, supporting urban greening plans, and building sustainable and resilient urban agglomerations.

Important role of precipitation in controlling a more uniform spring phenology in the Qinba Mountains, China

Under global warming, the gradual pattern of spring phenology along elevation gradients (EG) has significantly changed. However, current knowledge on the phenomenon of a more uniform spring phenology is mainly focused on the effect of temperature and neglected precipitation. This study aimed to determine whether a more uniform spring phenology occurs along EG in the Qinba Mountains (QB) and explore the effect of precipitation on this pattern. We used Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filtering to extract the start of season (SOS) of the forest from the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) during 2001-2018 and determined the main drivers of the SOS patterns along EG by partial correlation analyses. The SOS showed a more uniform trend along EG in the QB with a rate of 0.26 ± 0.01 days 100 m^-1 per decade during 2001-2018, but there were differences around 2011. A delayed SOS at low elevations was possibly due to the reduced spring precipitation (SP) and spring temperature (ST) between 2001 and 2011. Additionally, an advanced SOS at high elevations may have been caused by the increased SP and reduced winter temperature (WT). These divergent trends contributed to a significant uniform trend of SOS with a rate of 0.85 ± 0.02 days 100 m^-1 per decade. Since 2011, significantly higher SP (especially at low elevations) and rising ST advanced the SOS, and the SOS at lower altitudes was more advanced than at higher altitudes, resulting in greater SOS differences along EG (0.54 ± 0.02 days 100 m^-1 per decade). The SP determined the direction of the uniform trend in SOS by controlling the SOS patterns at low elevations. A more uniform SOS may have important effects on local ecosystem stability. Our findings could provide a theoretical basis for establishing ecological restoration measures in areas experiencing similar trends.

Effects of climate change and human activities on gross primary productivity in the Heihe River Basin, China

As the primary source of carbon dioxide fixation, vegetation is critical to the carbon sink process. In this paper, the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) were simulated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), respectively, and then the Potential Gross Primary Productivity (PGPP) and the GPP affected by human activities (AGPP) were simulated by combining Potential Net Primary Productivity (PNPP), and then the impact of climate change and human activities on GPP was assessed in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). The results showed that the GPP of grassland and Bare or Sparse Vegetation (BSV) exhibited a fluctuation rise, with increases of 0.709 gCm^-2 a^-1 and 0.115 gCm^-2 a^-1, respectively, whereas the GPP of cropland showed a fluctuation reduction, with a decline rate of -0.465 gCm^-2 a^-1. Climate change and human activity are both positive for vegetation growth, and human activity being the primary factor influencing GPP change. Human-dominated vegetation restoration accounted for 56.1% of the overall restoration area, with grassland GPP being the most visible response to human activities. The GPP changes in crop and grassland had a positive correlation with precipitation but a negative correlation with temperature among climate change factors, whereas the GPP changes in BSV had a negative correlation with both precipitation and temperature. Quantitative analyses of climate change and human activities' dynamic contributions to vegetation can give scientific and theoretical insight for dealing with global climate change.

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Net Ecosystem Productivity in China and Its Response to Climate Change in the Past 40 Years

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which is considered an important indicator to measure the carbon source/sink size of ecosystems on a regional scale, has been widely studied in recent years. Since China's terrestrial NEP plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, it is of great significance to systematically examine its spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors. Based on China's terrestrial NEP products estimated by a data-driven model from 1981 to 2018, the spatial and temporal pattern of China's terrestrial NEP was analyzed, as well as its response to climate change. The results demonstrate that the NEP in China has shown a pattern of high value in the west and low value in the east over the past 40 years. NEP in China from 1981 to 2018 showed a significantly increasing trend, and the NEP change trend was quite different in two sub-periods (i.e., 1981-1999 and 2000-2018). The temporal and spatial changes of China's terrestrial NEP in the past 40 years were affected by both temperature and precipitation. However, the area affected by precipitation was larger. Our results provide a valuable reference for the carbon sequestration capacity of China's terrestrial ecosystem.

Vegetation Dynamics in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in a Typical Alpine Region in the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding past and future vegetation dynamics is important for assessing the effectiveness of ecological engineering, designing policies for adaptive ecological management, and improving the ecological environment. Here, inter-annual changes in vegetation dynamics during 2000-2020, contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to vegetation dynamics, and sustainability of vegetation dynamics in the future were determined in Gannan Prefecture (a typical alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau), China. MODIS-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), air temperature, precipitation, and land cover data were used, and trend analysis, multiple regression residuals analysis, and Hurst exponent analysis were employed. NDVI increased at a rate of 2.4 × 10^-3∙a^-1 during the growing season, and vegetation improved in most parts of the study area and some sporadically degraded areas also existed. The increasing rate was the highest in the Grain to Green Project (GTGP) areas. The vegetation in the southern and northern regions was mainly affected by CC and HA, respectively, with CC and HA contributions to vegetation change being 52.32% and 47.68%, respectively. The GTGP area (59.89%) was most evidently affected by HA. Moreover, a Hurst exponent analysis indicated that, in the future, the vegetation in Gannan Prefecture would continuously improve. The study can assist in formulating ecological protection and restoration projects and ensuring sustainable development.

Global exacerbation of episodic local vegetation greenness decline since the 21st century

Extreme climate-induced vegetation greenness decline significantly affects the stability of ecosystem function. Extreme climate events have occurred frequently in the recent 20 years and the possibility of climate anomalies is forecasted to increase in the future. But currently, the spatial and temporal response of episodic local vegetation decline to climate extremes at a global scale are still unclear. In this study, the detrend NDVI data was utilized as the indicator of vegetation growth, and a spatiotemporally contiguous recognition method was proposed to identify episodic large-scale vegetation decline events globally, subsequently, the spatiotemporal characteristics of these vegetation decline events and their interannual variation trends during 2000-2019 were explored. The results showed that (1) the spatiotemporally contiguous recognition method proposed by this paper was proven to be accurate in identifying the hotspot regions of large-scale vegetation decline. A total of 243 large-scale vegetation decline events were recognized globally during 2000-2019 drived by the method. (2) The global hotspots of large-scale vegetation decline were mainly distributed in the low-elevation areas at middle and low latitudes, especially at 15°S ~ 35°S, 15°N and 35°N, where covered north-western Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East, Central Asia, western India, the border of north-eastern China and Mongolia, western and south-central United States, northern Mexico, southern Africa, Australia, and southern and north-eastern South America. (3) Recent global episodic local vegetation decline has increased significantly since 2000, at the rate of 180,000 km² of vegetation decline areas increasing per year. Particular, the severity of vegetation decline grew significantly since 2010 at the regions where covered the latitudes of approximately 15°N, 30°N and 65°N. Additionally, the severity of vegetation decline ranging from 20°S to 30°S weakened significantly since 2010. These findings were expected to provide the valuable scientific understanding for global vegetation decline and ecosystem responses to frequent climate extremes.

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamic in China based on multiple indices

Distinguishing the respective roles of climate change and anthropogenic activities can provide crucial information for sustainable management of the environment. Here, using the residual trend method (RESTREND), which measures the residue of the actual and potential trends of vegetation, we quantified the relative contributions of human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, overgrazing, and urbanization) and climate change (the warmer and wetter trend) to vegetation dynamics in China during 1988-2018 based on multiple vegetation indices, including the vegetation optical depth (Ku-VOD, C-VOD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and gross primary productivity (GPP). The results showed that the VOD, NDVI, and GPP exhibited overall increasing trends during 1988-2018. Human activities contributed >70% to the increases in NDVI and GPP in China, whereas a counterbalanced contribution of human activities and climate change was identified for the VOD dynamics (51% vs. 49%). Regions with high contributions from human activities to NDVI, GPP, and VOD were located in northeastern, southern, central, and northwestern China. In northern China, the positive impacts of human activities on NDVI (78%) and BEPS-GPP (83%) were greater than those of climate change. In contrast, human activities contributed 96% to the decrease in Ku-VOD over the same period. Before 2000, climate change promoted increases in GPP and NDVI in most regions of southern China. The increasing rates of GPP and NDVI accelerated after 2000 due to afforestation. However, human activities like overgrazing and urbanization have led to decreases in Ku-VOD in northern and southwestern China, and in C-VOD in northeastern, eastern, central, southwestern, and southern China. In all, the relative roles of climate and human factors varied in different regions when NDVI, GPP, or VOD were individually considered. Our results highlighted that the regional-scale vegetation conditions should be taken into full account to achieve sustainable management of ecosystems.

Increasing Impact of Precipitation on Alpine-Grassland Productivity over Last Two Decades on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the importance of temperature and precipitation on plant productivity is beneficial, to reveal the potential impact of climate change on vegetation growth. Although some studies have quantified the response of vegetation productivity to climate change at local, regional, and global scales, changes in climatic constraints on vegetation productivity over time are not well understood. This study combines the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the net primary production (NPP) modeled by CASA during the plant-growing season, to quantify the interplay of climatic (growing-season temperature and precipitation, GST and GSP) constraints on alpine-grassland productivity on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the temporal dynamics of these constraints. The results showed that (1) 42.2% and 36.3% of grassland NDVI and NPP on the Tibetan Plateau increased significantly from 2000 to 2019. GSP controlled grassland growth in dryland regions, while humid grasslands were controlled by the GST. (2) The response strength of the NDVI and NPP to precipitation (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GSP and RNPP-GSP) increased substantially between 2000 and 2019. Especially, the RNDVI-GSP and RNPP-GSP increased from 0.14 and 0.01 in the first 10year period (2000–2009) to 0.83 and 0.78 in the second 10-year period (2010–2019), respectively. As a result, the controlling factor for alpine-grassland productivity variations shifted from temperature during 2000–2009 to precipitation during 2010–2019. (3) The increase in precipitation constraints was mainly distributed in dryland regions of the plateau. This study highlights that the climatic constraints on alpine-grassland productivity might change under ongoing climate change, which helps the understanding of the ecological responses and helps predict how vegetation productivity changes in the future.

Effects of Human Activities on Urban Vegetation: Explorative Analysis of Spatial Characteristics and Potential Impact Factors

Since the 21st century, large cities around the world have experienced the transition from economically destructive development to a harmonious eco-environment. Understanding the dynamic relationships between human activities and urban eco-environment in this transition is a challenging and essential topic. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can reflect the urban vegetation cover status well. Socio-economic indexes can present the intensity and spatiality of human activities quantitatively. This work aims to use traditional regression models and machine learning algorithms to analyze the impact of socio-economic factors on NDVI accurately. Random forest regression (RFR) was performed to initially assess the contributions of all factors on NDVI, which was the numerical basis for feature selection. Subsequently, detailed dynamic relationship simulations were implemented using geographically weighted regression. In the case of Wuhan in China, the results showed that the goodness-of-fit of NDVI with socio-economic factors generally exceeded 50%. The influence coefficients changed from negative to positive, and 2010 was the turning point, indicating that human activities gradually played a favorable role in protecting vegetation during this transition period. The urban–rural interface, which was located between urban centers and marginal urban suburbs, was the area where human activities contributed most to vegetation. Thus, policy makers should focus on planning and managing housing construction and vegetation planting in urban–rural interface to relieve the population burden of the central area and improve the environmental conditions of the urban eco-environment subconsciously.

Dense canopies browning overshadowed by global greening dominant in sparse canopies

Greening, an increase in photosynthetically active plant biomass, has been widely reported as period-related and region-specific. We hypothesized that vegetation trends were highly density-dependent with intensified browning in dense canopies and increased greening in sparse canopies. We exploited this insight by estimating vegetation trends in peak growth from dense to sparse canopies graded from 1 to 20 using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test based on the 500 m 8-day composite MODIS Near Infrared Reflectance of terrestrial vegetation (NIRv) time series datasets in the past two decades (2001-2019) at the global scale. We found that global greening increased by 1.42% per grade with strong fit before grade 15 (R² = 0.95): net browning (11% browning vs 9% greening) exhibited in high-density canopies (NIRv > 0.39) in contrast to 32% greening in low-density canopies (NIRv ≈ 0.15). While the density-dependent greening was evidenced across different biomes and ecosystems, the steepest gradient (changes per grade) in cropland highlighted the increasingly intensified agricultural activities globally. Greening gradients declined in the dryland, but enhanced in the High-latitude ecosystems driven by warming, especially in the shrubland. Density-dependent vegetation trends were accounted for by the disproportionately impacts from climate changes and the unequal contributions of Land Cover Changes (LCC) among dense and sparse canopies. Vegetation trends and greening gradients could be extensively facilitated by Wetting or Decreasing solar Radiation (WDR), especially in sparse grassland and shrubland. Browning was dominant in dense canopies, which was further aggravated by Drying and Increasing solar Radiation (DIR), especially woody vegetation. This study implied the widespread degradation or mortality of highly productive vegetation hidden among global greening dominant in open ecosystems, which might be further exacerbated by the predicted increasing drought under global warming.

Generalized Additive Model Reveals Nonlinear Trade-Offs/Synergies between Relationships of Ecosystem Services for Mountainous Areas of Southwest China

Ecosystem services (ESs) are an essential link between ecosystems and human well-being, and trade-offs/synergies happen in ESs at different temporal and spatial scales. It is crucial to explore patterns of trade-offs/synergies among ESs, and their nonlinear relationships with changes in ESs. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate five ESs in 2000 and 2018: namely, water yield, food production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and habitat quality in mountainous regions of Southwest China. The mean values of the five ESs increased by 365.8 m3/ha, 13.92 t/hm2, 497.09 TgC/yr2, 138.48 t/km2, and 0.002, respectively. Using spatial statistics and analysis, an ES trade-off synergy model (ESTD) was constructed for the five ESs change values. Overall, soil conservation has a trade-off with all five ESs, except habitat quality; this trade-off is increasing slightly. Water yield is in synergy with all ESs except soil conservation, with decreasing synergy; habitat quality is in synergy with all ESs except food production, with increasing synergy. Finally, the nonlinear relationship between the value of the change in the ES and ESTD was analyzed using a generalized additive model. Changes in water yield showed the greatest impact on ESTD except for food production, wherein changes in all three ESs had minimal impacts on ESTD. Food production dominates its trade-offs/synergies relationship with soil conservation; carbon sequestration is the dominant player in its trade-offs/synergies relationship with soil conservation. Habitat quality has a secondary position of influence, except in the trade-offs/synergies involving food production. By exploring the drivers of trade-offs/synergies among ESs, this study can provide guidance for the effective implementation of policies related to ecological protection and restoration.

Increased precipitation and nitrogen addition accelerate the temporal increase in soil respiration during 8-year old-field grassland succession

Ecological succession after disturbance plays a vital role in influencing ecosystem structure and functioning. However, how global change factors regulate ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in successional plant communities remains largely elusive. As part of an 8-year (2012-2019) manipulative experiment, this study was designed to examine the responses of soil respiration and its heterotrophic component to simulated increases in precipitation and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in an old-field grassland undergoing secondary succession. Over the 8-year experimental period, increased precipitation stimulated soil respiration by 11.6%, but did not affect soil heterotrophic respiration. Nitrogen addition increased both soil respiration (5.1%) and heterotrophic respiration (6.2%). Soil respiration and heterotrophic respiration linearly increased with time in the control plots, resulting from changes in soil moisture and shifts of plant community composition from grass-forb codominance to grass dominance in this old-field grassland. Compared to the control, increased precipitation significantly strengthened the temporal increase in soil respiration through stimulating belowground net primary productivity. By contrast, N addition accelerated temporal increases in both soil respiration and its heterotrophic component by driving plant community shifts and thus stimulating soil organic C. Our findings indicate that increases in water and N availabilities may accelerate soil C release during old-field grassland succession and reduce their potential positive impacts on soil C accumulation under future climate change scenarios.

The Relative Roles of Climate Variation and Human Activities in Vegetation Dynamics in Coastal China from 2000 to 2019

Vegetation in the terrestrial ecosystem, sensitive to climate change and human activities, exerts a crucial influence on the carbon cycles in land, ocean, and atmosphere. Discrimination between climate and human-induced vegetation dynamics is advocated but still limited, especially in coastal China, which is characterized by a developed economy, a large population, and high food production, but also by unprecedented climate change and warming. Taking coastal China as the research area, our study used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in growing seasons, as well as precipitation, temperature, and sunlight hours datasets, adopted residual trend analysis at pixel and regional scales in coastal China from 2000–2019 and aims to (1) delineate the patterns and processes of vegetation changes, and (2) separate the relative contributions of climate and human activities by adopting residual trend analysis. The results indicated that (1) coastal China experienced the most vegetation greening (83.04% of the whole region) and partial degradation (16.86% of the whole region) with significant spatial heterogeneity; (2) compared with climate change, human activities have a greater positive impact on NDVI, and the regions were mainly located in the north of the North China Plain and the south of southern China; (3) the relative contribution rates of climate change and human activities were detected to be 0–60% and 60–100%, respectively; (4) in the northern coastal areas, the improvement of cultivated land management greatly promoted the greening of vegetation and thus the increase of grain yield, while in southern coastal areas, afforestation and the restoration of degraded forest were responsible for vegetation restoration; and (5) similar results obtained by partial correlation between nighttime lights and NDVI indicated the reliability of the residual trend analysis. The linear relationships of precipitation, temperature, and radiation on NDVI may limit the accurate estimation of climate drivers on vegetation, and further ecosystem process-modeling approaches can be used to estimate the relative contribution of climate change and human activities. The findings in our research emphasized that the attribution for vegetation dynamics with heterogeneity can provide evidence for the designation of rational ecological conservation policies.

The Efficiency of Forest Management Investment in Key State-Owned Forest Regions under the Carbon Neutral Target: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China

To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of “increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area” was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a “southeast–northwest” pattern and had “from southeast to northwest” migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter’s FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

Change Trend and Restoration Potential of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in China over the Past 20 Years

As an important vegetation parameter and ecological index, vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) can intuitively reflect changes in the ecological environment and the level of the carbon budget. However, the change trend of NPP and its recovery potential in China over the past 20 years remain unclear. Here, we used trend analysis, multiple regression analysis and residual analysis methods to analyse the change trend in the NPP of China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2019, as well as the climax background, restoration status and restoration potential of the NPP of forest, grassland and desert ecosystems. The results showed that (1) the change in vegetation NPP in China from 2000 to 2019 showed a continuous upward trend, with a change slope of 2.39 gC/m2/a2, and the area with a positive slope of change accounted for 68.10% of the country’s land area. The contribution rates of meteorological conditions and human activities to vegetation NPP changes were 85.41% and 14.59%, respectively. (2) The results obtained by the regression analysis method of meteorological conditions based on nature reserves could reflect the zonal climax vegetation status to a large extent, and the obtained values had a smooth transition within each ecogeographical division and between each ecogeographical division, which truly reflected the law of gradual change in climate, vegetation and natural conditions. The annual total NPP of the climax background vegetation in China’s forest, grassland and desert ecosystems was approximately 2.76 ± 0.28 PgC, and the annual total NPP of the three ecosystems was 1.90 ± 0.2 PgC, 0.80 ± 0.07 PgC and 0.009 ± 0.0005 PgC, respectively. (3) The annual total vegetation NPP of the restoration status of China’s forest, grassland and desert ecosystems was 2.24 PgC, and the annual total vegetation NPP of the three was 1.54 PgC, 0.65 PgC and 0.007 PgC, respectively. Benefiting from the effective implementation of climate warming and humidification and ecological engineering, the agro-pastoral zone, the Loess Plateau, the eastern Sichuan Basin and the Greater Khingan Range had the most significant increases in the past 20 years. (4) The annual total vegetation NPP of China’s forest, grassland and desert ecosystem restoration potential was approximately 0.52 ± 0.28 PgC, which accounted for approximately 19.05% of the annual total NPP of the climax background vegetation. The annual total vegetation NPP of forest, grassland and desert ecosystems restoration status was 0.36 ± 0.2 PgC, 0.16 ± 0.07 PgC and 0.002 ± 0.0005 PgC, respectively; the restoration potential accounted for 18.80%, 9.67% and 23.95% of the climax background vegetation NPP, respectively. The deployment of ecological projects should fully consider the restrictive climate conditions for decision makers and ecological scholars, and the benefits and costs of the projects should be considered comprehensively.

Precipitation and Anthropogenic Activities Jointly Green the China–Mongolia–Russia Economic Corridor

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are widely considered the main factors affecting vegetation growth. However, their relative contributions are under debate. Within the non-climatic impact, detailed human activities, particularly government policy adjustments, are less investigated. In this study, we develop a fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) extraction method based on MODIS-EVI satellite data to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its attributions in the China–Mongolia–Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC). The average FVC has improved, with a general increase of 0.02/10a from 2000 to 2020. We construct a driving factor identification system for FVC change, based on partial and multiple correlation coefficients, and we divide the driving forces of FVC changes into seven climate-driven types and one non-climate-driven type. The results reveal that FVC changes caused by climatic factors account for 28.2% of CMREC. The most prominent greening (19.5%) is precipitation-driven, and is extensively distributed in Khentii Aimag, Mongolia; southeast Inner Mongolia; west Jilin Province; and southwest Heilongjiang Province, China. Moreover, we quantify the relative contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to significant FVC change using the first-difference multivariate regression method. The results indicate that the effects of non-climatic factors on vegetation change outweigh those of climatic factors in most areas. According to the land cover change and regional policy adjustment, anthropogenic activities such as afforestation, reclamation, and planting structure adjustment explain most vegetation improvement in the Northeast Plain; eastern Inner Mongolia; and the Hetao Irrigation District, China. Meanwhile, both vegetation improvement and degradation disperse concurrently in the Mongolian and Russian parts of CMREC, where climate change and anthropogenic activities positively and negatively affect vegetation change, respectively. Despite the greening in most CMREC, it must be noted that human-induced greening is unsustainable to some degree. The overdevelopment of black soil area and sandy land, adverse effects of afforestation projects, and natural hazards related to weather and climate extremes altogether threaten the local ecological security in the long run. Therefore, governments should develop new desertification countermeasures in accordance with the laws of nature, and enhance international cooperation to guarantee the ecological safety of CMREC.