Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

Distribution patterns of Phytoseiulus persimilis in response to climate change

BACKGROUND

The biological control agent Phytoseiulus persimilis is a commercialized specialist predator of two agricultural pest mite species Tetranychus urticae and Tetranychus evansi. Biocontrol of these pest species by P. persimilis has achieved success in biological control in some areas. However, the lack of precise information about the influence of global climate change on the worldwide distribution of this biocontrol agent hampers international efforts to manage pest mites with P. persimilis. With 276 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables, this study investigated the potential global distribution of P. persimilis.

RESULTS

The results demonstrated that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model performed well, with the area under the curve being 0.956, indicating the high accuracy of this model. Two variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio_6) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19) were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of P. persimilis, contributing more than 30% to the model, respectively. The suitable area currently occupies 21.67% of the world's land area, spanning latitudes between 60°S and 60°N. Under shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), the low suitable area would increase by 1.31% until the 2050s.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully identified that south-eastern China, parts of countries in the Mediterranean coastal regions, including Libya, Algeria, Portugal, Spain, and France, are climatically favorable regions for P. persimilis, providing valuable information about the potential areas where it can be effectively exploited as biocontrol agents in classical biological control programs to manage pest spider mites environmentally friendly. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Density-dependent predatory impacts of an invasive beetle across a subantarctic archipelago

Biological invasions represent a major threat to biodiversity, especially in cold insular environments characterized by high levels of endemism and low species diversity which are heavily impacted by global warming. Terrestrial invertebrates are very responsive to environmental changes, and native terrestrial invertebrates from cold islands tend to be naive to novel predators. Therefore, understanding the relationships between predators and prey in the context of global changes is essential for the management of these areas, particularly in the case of non-native predators. Merizodus soledadinus (Guérin-Méneville, 1830) is an invasive non-native insect species present on two subantarctic archipelagos, where it has extensive distribution and increasing impacts. While the biology of M. soledadinus has recently received attention, its trophic interactions have been less examined. We investigated how characteristics of M. soledadinus, its density, as well as prey density influence its predation rate on the Kerguelen Islands where the temporal evolution of its geographic distribution is precisely known. Our results show that M. soledadinus can have high ecological impacts on insect communities when present in high densities regardless of its residence time, consistent with the observed decline of the native fauna of the Kerguelen Islands in other studies. Special attention should be paid to limiting factors enhancing its dispersal and improving biosecurity for invasive insect species.

Responses of different invasive and non-invasive ornamental plants to water stress during seed germination and vegetative growth

Biological invasions represent a major threat to natural ecosystems. A primary source of invasive plants is ornamental horticulture, which selects traits related to invasiveness. This study evaluated the responses to water stress during germination and vegetative growth of six species used as ornamental or medicinal plants. Three of them are recognised as invasive weeds in many world areas. Seeds were exposed to increasing concentrations of polyethylene glycol (PEG) mimicking drought stress, and young plants in the vegetative growth stage were subjected to two levels of water stress. Results indicated that in the absence of stress in control conditions, the most competitive species were those reported as weeds, namely Bidens pilosa L., Oenothera biennis L., and Centaurea cyanus L., the last regarding germination velocity. Under stress, only two species, Limonium sinuatum (L.) Mill. and C. cyanus, maintained germination at -1 MPa osmotic potential, but in the recovery experiment, an osmopriming effect of PEG was observed. The most tolerant species during growth were two natives in the Mediterranean region, L. sinuatum and Lobularia maritima (L.) Desv., both accumulating the highest proline concentrations. The sixth species studied, Echinacea purpurea (L.) Moench., proved to be more susceptible to stress in the two developmental stages. This study reveals that the most significant traits associated with invasiveness were related to germination, especially in the absence of stress.

Effective communications on invasive alien species: Identifying communication needs of Swedish domestic garden owners

Invasive alien species threaten biodiversity with domestic gardens acting as a major pathway for the introduction of alien species. Even though the Nordic region is not currently a hotspot for biological invasions, the number of invasions in the Nordic area has been predicted to increase due to climate change. Given a time lag between introduction and invasion, many non-invasive horticultural alien species already introduced into gardens may become invasive in the future. This study aimed to identify the communication needs of Swedish garden owners regarding their management of invasive alien species. A survey among domestic garden owners, informed by topic specialists and local area experts, and interviews with garden owners were conducted in three different bio-climatic areas in a latitudinal gradient across Sweden. The questions targeted invasive alien species and their relations to biodiversity loss and climate change, as well as measures taken to control these species. Analysing the survey data collected in relation to measures taken to control invasive species, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) modelling was used to identify geographically varying communication needs of the domestic garden owners. In all study areas, the garden owners' measures taken to control invasive alien species were correlated with their strength of beliefs in having experienced local biodiversity loss. A majority of the garden owners were, moreover, uncertain about the impact of climate change on the invasiveness of alien species. In addition, the garden owners' capacity for identifying invasive alien species was often in need of improvement, in particular with respect to the species Impatiens glandulifera, Reynoutria japonica and Rosa rugosa. The results suggest that the evidence-based guidelines for effective communications we developed, have the potential to help communicators meet the local communication needs of garden owners across Sweden, in relation to the management of invasive alien garden species.

Trends in the direction of global plant invasion biology research over the past two decades

Invasive plants are a growing ecological problem worldwide, but biases and patterns within invasive plant research may affect our understanding of invasive plant ecology. In this study, we analyzed 458 invasive plant papers sampled from the two journals dedicated entirely to the field of invasion biology, i.e., Biological Invasions and Neobiota. From these papers, we collected information on geographic coverage, climate, habitat, taxonomic coverage, plant functional type, and research topic to examine trends across a 21-year time period from 1999 to 2020. Our analysis found that invasive plant research was consistently biased toward temperate grassland and forest ecosystems particularly within the Americas, Europe, and Australia, and toward smaller, herbaceous invasive plant species (i.e., forbs, grasses, and shrubs), with an increase in interest in invasive nitrogen-fixing legumes over time. Our analysis also identified "hot" research topics in invasive plant research at specific time periods, such as a peak in the use of genetic analysis methods in 2014-2015 and a more recent focus on plant physiological and functional traits. While current models, concepts, and understanding of plant invasion ecology are still driven by such biases, this has been partially offset by recent increased research in understudied systems, as well as increasing awareness that plant invasion is heavily affected by their growth types, physiological traits, and soil interactions. As the field of invasion biology becomes ever increasingly important over time, focusing invasive plant research on understudied ecosystems and plant groups will allow us to develop a more holistic understanding of the ecology of invasive plants. In particular, given the outsized importance of the tropics to global biodiversity, the threats they face, and the dearth of studies, it is of critical importance that more invasive plant research is conducted within the tropics to develop a more globally representative understanding of invasive plant ecology.

Iconic but Invasive: The Public Perception of the Chinese Windmill Palm (Trachycarpus fortunei) in Switzerland

Biological invasions strongly increased during the last centuries and are challenging environmental managers worldwide. In this context, public acceptance of management measures is a key factor determining the long-term success of the control of invasive species. However, in the case of charismatic and iconic invasive species, the public has often been unwilling to accept strict management measures. Here, we studied the public perception of the Chinese windmill palm (Trachycarpus fortunei) in Switzerland, which is declared as invasive in southern Switzerland but also recognized as iconic. We conducted a nation-wide online survey in the multilingual and multicultural context of Switzerland, investigating the influence of social and cultural factors on the knowledge of, the attitude toward, and the willingness to control the invasive T. fortunei. Results confirm that the knowledge and perception of invasive plants have a strong social and cultural component and may vary greatly as a function of the cultural background, education level, age, and other social characteristics. Furthermore, information on the invasiveness of the focal species provided during the survey significantly affected informants' perceptions, which are closely related to the acceptance of possible management and control measures. This allows us to highlight the importance of a holistic approach that includes targeted public information when dealing with biological invasions, especially in the case of charismatic and iconic species. Based on the obtained results, we suggest avenues for refining management and control strategies of T. fortunei in Switzerland, many of which generally applicable to other cases of invasive species.

Global assessment of three Rumex species reveals inconsistent climatic niche shifts across multiple introduced ranges

Climatic niche shifts occur when species occupy different climates in the introduced range than in their native range. Climatic niche shifts are known to occur across a range of taxa, however we do not currently understand whether climatic niche shifts can consistently be predicted across multiple introduced ranges. Using three congeneric weed species, we investigate whether climatic niche shifts in one introduced range are consistent in other ranges where the species has been introduced. We compared the climatic conditions occupied by Rumex conglomeratus, R. crispus, and R. obtusifolius between their native range (Eurasia) and three different introduced ranges (North America, Australia, New Zealand). We considered metrics of niche overlap, expansion, unfilling, pioneering, and similarity to determine whether climatic niche shifts were consistent across ranges and congeners. We found that the presence and direction of climatic niche shifts was inconsistent between introduced ranges for each species. Within an introduced range, however, niche shifts were qualitatively similar among species. North America and New Zealand experienced diverging niche expansion into drier and wetter climates respectively, whilst the niche was conserved in Australia. This work highlights how unique characteristics of an introduced range and local introduction history can drive different niche shifts, and that comparisons between only the native and one introduced range may misrepresent a species’ capacity for niche shifts. However, predictions of climatic niche shifts could be improved by comparing related species in the introduced range rather than relying on the occupied environments of the native range.

Functional traits underlying performance variations in the overwintering of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth ( Eichhornia crassipes ) under climate warming and water drawdown

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that temperature rise is still the general trend of the global climate in the 21st century. Invasive species may benefit from the increase in temperature, as climate can be viewed as a resource, and the increase in the available resources favors the invasibility of invasive species. This study aimed to assess the overwintering growth of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) at its northern boundary. Using E. crassipes as a model plant, a cross‐year mesocosm experiment was conducted to determine 17 plant functional traits, including growth, morphological, root topological, photosynthetic, and stoichiometric traits, under climate warming (ambient, temperature rises of 1.5°C and 3.0°C), and water drawdown or water withdrawal (water depths of 1, 10, and 20 cm) treatments. The overwintering growth of E. crassipes was facilitated by climate warming and proper water drawdown, and climate warming played a leading role. A temperature rises of 3.0°C and a water depth of 10 cm were the most suitable conditions for the overwintering and rooting behavior of the plant. Controlling the temperature to within 1.5°C, an ambitious goal for China, still facilitated the overwintering of E. crassipes. With climate warming, the plant can overwinter successfully, which possibly assists it in producing and spreading new ramets in the vernal flood season. The new rooting behavior induced by ambient low temperature may be viewed as a unique growth adaptation strategy for a niche change, as it helps these plants invade empty niches left by dead free‐floating plants on the water surface following winter freezes. With continued global warming, the distribution of the plant may expand northward, and eradication of the plant during the winter water drawdown period may be a more effective strategy.

Climate change-induced invasion risk of ecosystem disturbing alien plant species: An evaluation using species distribution modeling

Species distribution modeling is widely used for evaluating invasion risk, and for prioritizing areas for the control and management of invasive species. However, selecting a modeling tool that accurately predicts species invasion risk requires a systematic approach. In this study, five species distribution models (SDMs), namely, artificial neural network (ANN), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF), were performed and evaluated their model performance using the mean value of area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa scores of 12 ecosystem disturbing alien plant species (EDAPS). The mean evaluation metric scores were highest in RF (AUC = 0.924 ± 0.058, TSS = 0.789 ± 0.109, Kappa = 0.671 ± 0.096, n = 12) and lowest in ANN. The ANOVA of AUC, TSS, and Kappa metrics revealed the RF model was significantly different from other SDMs and was therefore selected as the relatively best model. The potential distribution area and invasion risk for each EDAPS were quantified. Under the current climate conditions of South Korea, the average potential distribution area of EDAPS was estimated to be 13,062 km2. However, in future climate change scenarios, the average percentage change of EDAPS distribution relative to the current climate was predicted to be increased over 219.93%. Furthermore, under the current climate, 0.16% of the area of the country was estimated to be under a very high risk of invasion, but this would increase to 60.43% by 2070. Invasion risk under the current climate conditions was highest in the northwestern, southern, and southeastern regions, and in densely populated cities, such as Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. By 2070, invasion risk was predicted to expand across the whole country except in the northeastern region. These results suggested that climate change induced the risk of EDAPS invasiveness, and SDMs could be valuable tools for alien and invasive plant species risk assessment.

Travel Tales of a Worldwide Weed: Genomic Signatures of Plantago major L. Reveal Distinct Genotypic Groups With Links to Colonial Trade Routes

Retracing pathways of historical species introductions is fundamental to understanding the factors involved in the successful colonization and spread, centuries after a species' establishment in an introduced range. Numerous plants have been introduced to regions outside their native ranges both intentionally and accidentally by European voyagers and early colonists making transoceanic journeys; however, records are scarce to document this. We use genotyping-by-sequencing and genotype-likelihood methods on the selfing, global weed, Plantago major, collected from 50 populations worldwide to investigate how patterns of genomic diversity are distributed among populations of this global weed. Although genomic differentiation among populations is found to be low, we identify six unique genotype groups showing very little sign of admixture and low degree of outcrossing among them. We show that genotype groups are latitudinally restricted, and that more than one successful genotype colonized and spread into the introduced ranges. With the exception of New Zealand, only one genotype group is present in the Southern Hemisphere. Three of the most prevalent genotypes present in the native Eurasian range gave rise to introduced populations in the Americas, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, which could lend support to the hypothesis that P. major was unknowlingly dispersed by early European colonists. Dispersal of multiple successful genotypes is a likely reason for success. Genomic signatures and phylogeographic methods can provide new perspectives on the drivers behind the historic introductions and the successful colonization of introduced species, contributing to our understanding of the role of genomic variation for successful establishment of introduced taxa.

Alien flora in Calabria (Southern Italy): an updated checklist

An updated checklist of the Calabrian alien vascular flora is presented. By way of field, bibliographic, and herbarium research, we recorded 382 alien taxa (representing almost 14% of all regional flora), of which 371 are angiosperms, nine gymnosperms, and two ferns. In relation to the state of spread, the majority of alien species are casual (207 taxa; 54%), followed by naturalized (127; 33%) and invasive (48; 13%), these last include four on the list of Union Concern, sensu Regulation (EU) no. 1143/2014. The most represented families are Asteraceae (39 taxa) and Poaceae (39). Among genera, Amaranthus (nine taxa), Prunus, Euphorbia, and Oxalis (seven taxa) make up those with the greatest number of taxa. A total of 21 taxa were reported for the first time, three of them are new to the European flora (Camptosema rubicundum, Musa ×paradisiaca and, only for continental Europe, Ipomoea hederacea), two to the Italian peninsula (Pelargonium graveolens, Schinus terebinthifolia) and 16 to the Calabrian flora (Aeonium arboreum, Asparagus asparagoides, Aspidistra elatior, Bidens sulphurea, Catalpa bignonioides, Citrus ×aurantium, Crassula ovata, Cucurbita ficifolia, Dimorphotheca ecklonis, Graptopetalum paraguayense subsp. paraguayense, Kalanchoë laxiflora, Nicotiana tabacum, Phytolacca dioica, Portulaca umbraticola, Talinum paniculatum, Tecomaria capensis). In terms of residence status, there are 291 neophytes (76%), 73 archaeophytes (19%), and 18 regional aliens (5%); neophytes are the most represented group (45 out of 48) among invasive taxa. Concerning life forms, the two most abundant groups are therophytes (30.1%, 115 taxa) and phanerophytes (29.6%, 113 taxa). Regarding habitats, 72% of alien taxa occur in artificial (199 taxa, 52%) and agricultural habitats (75 taxa, 20%). The majority of alien taxa are native to the Americas (159; 41.6%), numerous aliens also originated in Asia (76; 19.9%) and Africa (56; 14.7%). The majority of taxa were introduced for ornamental purposes (55%). Over the past decade, alien taxa in the flora in Calabria have increased from 190 to the current 382 taxa. While this trend could be linked to some extent to increasing awareness of the problem of alien species and the increasing intensity of research over recent decades, it is also most probably due to new introductions resulting from the globalization that relentlessly affects the whole planet.

Urban Green Spaces Restoration Using Native Forbs, Site Preparation and Soil Amendments—A Case Study

Restoration of urban green spaces with native flora is especially important for promoting various ecosystem services. Although there have been years of research on land reclamation, ecological restoration and plant establishment, there is a lack of knowledge on how to reintegrate the native ecological component, specifically forb species in urban green spaces. We evaluated the restoration potential of 24 native forbs using different site preparation (herbicide, tillage, herbicide with tillage and control) and soil amendment (100% compost, 50% compost with 50% topsoil, 20% compost with 80% topsoil and control) treatments in a recreational park in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Soil texture and nutrients generally increased with increased compost application rate; some declined within a year, others increased. Based on survival and growth analysis, the forb species with the highest potential for use in urban green spaces were Penstemon procerus, Fragaria virginiana, Heuchera cylindrica, Agastache foeniculum, Antennaria microphylla, Mentha arvensis and Geum aleppicum. Native forb species response was more prominent with soil amendment than site preparation. Treatments with greater amounts of compost had greater survival, growth, species richness, cover and noxious weed cover than control treatments. This study suggests amendment of soil with compost can positively influence forb species restoration in urban green spaces; under some conditions site preparation may be required.

Population increase of the invasive red–whiskered bulbul Pycnonotus jocosus in Valencia, Spain

The red–whiskered bulbul Pycnonotus jocosus is a medium–sized passerine that has been classified as an invasive species because of its impact on native ecosystems. It was first reported in the Canary Islands of Spain in 1997. In March 2003, it was sighted in the province of Valencia, in eastern Spain, in a residential area called ‘La Cañada’. From 2015 to 2020 we monitored its population in a suburban area close to La Cañada using point counts every spring. Since 2015, the population has shown a trend towards a significant increase in this area, with an estimate of (2,428 < 2,878 < 3,412) individuals in 2020. Its frequency of occurrence has also increased, and it appears to have a continuous distribution in the study area. In the last 17 years the red–whiskered bulbul has spread as far as 20 km from La Cañada, and it is expected to continue spreading and increasing in numbers, with consequences as yet unknown.

Alien flora of Oman: invasion status, taxonomic composition, habitats, origin, and pathways of introduction

We present the first inventory and status assessment of the alien flora of Oman, mainly based on field data collected from 1998 to 2021. The study provides (i) a comprehensive account of alien vascular plant species occurring in the wild in Oman, with information on their taxonomic composition. For each species information is given on (ii) invasion status (casual, naturalized or invasive), biogeography, habitat and life-form characteristics, and pathways of introduction. Further, we (iii) explain the differences in the alien species composition in different parts of the country, and (iv) analyse the drivers of plant invasions in Oman. Out of the 111 alien species reported (7.7% of the total Oman vascular flora), 34 species are casuals and 77 naturalized; of the latter seven are considered invasive. The moderate number of alien plant species is likely a result of the country’s arid climate, with extremely high summer temperatures and low annual precipitation in most of its area, and the relatively long isolation of the country. The families richest in alien plant species are Fabaceae (17 species), Asteraceae (14 species) and Poaceae (12 species). More alien plants were found in northern Oman (82 species) than in southern Oman (60 species), and very few species are recorded from the central desert (7 species). The main habitats colonized were man-made habitats, either ruderal or agricultural. Most species alien to Oman are native to South America (49 species) or North America (43 species). This inventory provides a knowledge base for developing a national management strategy for alien vascular plants in Oman.

Assessment of the Spatial Invasion Risk of Intentionally Introduced Alien Plant Species (IIAPS) under Environmental Change in South Korea

Predicting the regions at risk of invasion from IIAPS is an integral horizon-scanning activity that plays a crucial role in preventing, controlling, and eradicating invasive species. Here, we quantify the spatial distribution area and invasion risk of IIAPS using a species distribution model under different levels of environmental change in South Korea. From the model predictions, the current average spatial extent of the 10 IIAPS is 33,948 km², and the individual spatial extents are estimated to change by -7% to 150% by 2050 and by -9% to 156% by 2070. The spatial invasion risk assessment shows that, currently, moderate-to-high invasion risk is limited to coastal areas and densely populated metropolitan cities (e.g., Seoul, Busan, and Gwangju), but that the area with this level of risk is expected to spread toward the central and northern regions of the country in the future, covering 86.21% of the total area of the country by 2070. These results demonstrate that the risk of invasion by IIAPS is estimated to enlarge across the whole country under future environmental changes. The modeling system provided in this study may contribute to the initial control and strategic management of IIAPS to maintain the dynamic ecosystems of South Korea.

Alien plants of Europe: introduction pathways, gateways and time trends

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) pathways classification framework used in the implementation of the European Union’s (EU) Regulation 1143/2014 on invasive alien species (IAS Regulation) has recently been adopted by the European Alien Species Information Network (EASIN), the official information system supporting the implementation of the IAS Regulation. In the current paper, the result of an alignment of the primary introduction pathways of all alien plants in Europe included in the EASIN catalogue is presented, based on the CBD framework. In total, 6,250 alien plant taxa (marine plants excluded), both alien to Europe (native range outside Europe) and alien in Europe (native range partially in Europe) are reported. Altogether 5,175 plant taxa had their primary introduction pathway aligned based on the CBD framework, while for the rest the pathway remains unknown. In addition, the taxonomy, year and country of its first record in the wild are provided for each taxon. Our analyses reveal that the main primary introduction pathways of alien plants into Europe are linked to accidental escapes from ornamental and horticultural activities. Northwestern European countries seem to act as the main gateway areas of alien plants into Europe. Recent first observations of new alien taxa growing spontaneously exhibit a contemporary accelerating trend for plants alien to Europe, particularly linked to ornamental and horticultural activities. On the other hand, the number of new plants alien in Europe seems to have stabilized over the last few decades. The present work can assist in the prioritization of introduction pathways control, with the target of slowing down the rate of alien plants introductions into Europe, following also the requirements of the IAS Regulation.

Lockdown botany 2020: some noteworthy records of alien plants in Kyiv City and Kyiv Region

Noteworthy records of 11 alien plant species in Kyiv City and Kyiv Region made mainly in 2020 are discussed. In particular, new localities of the following taxa are reported: Amaranthus spinosus, Artemisia tournefortiana, Chenopodium ucrainicum, Celastrus orbiculatus, Datura innoxia, Dysphania ambrosioides, Erechtites hieraciifolius, Mesembryanthemum ×vascosilvae (M. cordifolium × M. haeckelianum; recently described as Aptenia ×vascosilvae and reported here for the first time for Ukraine; earlier this ornamental hybrid was misidentified as Aptenia cordifolia), Parietaria officinalis, Phytolacca americana, Thladiantha dubia. The presence in Ukraine of several additional species, such as Datura wrightii and Phytolacca acinosa s.l. (incl. P. esculenta), that may occur as escaped near places of their cultivation, is reported; these species may be confused with D. innoxia and P. americana, respectively. The growing role of alien plants escaped from cultivation (ergasiophytes) in the present-day processes of formation of the alien flora of Ukraine is emphasized.

Time lags and the invasion debt in plant naturalisations

Ecological processes often exhibit time lags. For plant invasions, lags of decades to centuries between species' introduction and establishment in the wild (naturalisation) are common, leading to the idea of an invasion debt: accelerating rates of introduction result in an expanding pool of introduced species that will naturalise in the future. Here, I show how a concept from survival analysis, the hazard function, provides an intuitive way to understand and forecast time lags. For plant naturalisation, theoretical arguments predict that lags between introduction and naturalisation will have a unimodal distribution, and that increasing horticultural activity will cause the mean and variance of lag times to decline over time. These predictions were supported by data on introduction and naturalisation dates for plant species introduced to Britain. While increasing trade and horticultural activity can generate an invasion debt by accelerating introductions, the same processes could lower that debt by reducing lag times.

Double trouble: the implications of climate change for biological invasions

The implications of climate change for biological invasions are multifaceted and vary along the invasion process. Changes in vectors and pathways are likely to manifest in changes in transport routes and destinations, together with altered transit times and traffic volume. Ultimately, changes in the nature of why, how, and where biota are transported and introduced will pose biosecurity challenges. These challenges will require increased human and institutional capacity, as well as proactive responses such as improved early detection, adaptation of present protocols and innovative legal instruments. Invasion success and spread are expected to be moderated by the physiological response of alien and native biota to environmental changes and the ensuing changes in biotic interactions. These in turn will likely affect management actions aimed at eradicating, containing, and mitigating invasions, necessitating an adaptive approach to management that is sensitive to potentially unanticipated outcomes.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Global distribution patterns and niche modelling of the invasive Kalanchoe × houghtonii (Crassulaceae)

Invasive alien species are currently considered one of the main threats to global biodiversity. One of the most rapidly expanding invasive plants in recent times is Kalanchoe × houghtonii (Crassulaceae), an artificial hybrid created in the 1930s in the United States by experimental crossings between K. daigremontiana and K. tubiflora, two species endemic to Madagascar. Thanks to its large colonizing capacity (mainly derived from the production of asexual plantlets), K. × houghtonii soon escaped from cultivation and quickly spread in many parts of the world. However, its actual range is not well known due to the lack of a formal description until recent times (2006) and its strong morphological resemblance with one of its parentals (K. daigremontiana). The present study was aimed, in the first instance, to delimit the present distribution area of K. × houghtonii at the global scale by gathering and validating all its occurrences and to track its colonization history. Currently, K. × houghtonii can be found on all continents except Antarctica, although it did not reach a global distribution until the 2000s. Its potential distribution, estimated with MaxEnt modelling software, is mainly centered in subtropical regions, from 20° to 40° of both northern and southern latitudes, mostly in areas with a high anthropogenic activity. Unexpectedly, concomitant to a poleward migration, future niche models suggest a considerable reduction of its range by up to one-third compared to the present, which might be related with the Crassulaceaean Acid Metabolism (CAM) of K. × houghtonii. Further research may shed light as to whether a decrease in potential habitats constitutes a general pattern for Crassulaceae and CAM plants.

Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

Background

Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach.

Results

Based on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (e.g., Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsangnam, Degue, Busan, and Ulsan) is estimated to increase up to 292%, 390.75%, and 468.06% by 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively, compared with the current richness.

Conclusions

Our study revealed that the rates of introduction and dispersion of invasive plant species from the western and southern coasts are relatively high and are expanding across the ROK through different modes of dispersion. The negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and economy caused by invasive plant species will be high if preventive and eradication measures are not employed immediately. Thus, this study will be helpful to policymakers for the management of invasive plant species and the conservation of biodiversity.

Composition patterns of ornamental flora in the Czech Republic

Ornamental plants are an important component of urban floras and a significant source of alien plant invasions to the surrounding landscapes. We studied ornamental flora across 174 settlements in the Czech Republic, Central Europe. The aims of the study were to (i) identify clusters of sites that are defined as distinctive groups of ornamental taxa reflecting environmental or socioeconomic factors and (ii) apply the classification approach which is traditionally used for spontaneous vegetation in order to evaluate the potential of different settlement types to act as source sites of invasive species. The inventories were classified in a similar manner that is generally applied to spontaneous vegetation using the COCKTAIL method. Diagnostic taxa were classified in a repeatable manner into 17 species groups, forming five distinctive clusters with ~70% of sites attributed to one cluster. The species pools of the clusters differed in their representation of species with native or alien status and different life forms. The following clusters were distinguished, based on the prevailing type of settlement: (1) old villas neighbourhoods of towns, (2) upland settlements, (3) modern neighbourhoods, (4) old rustic settlements and (5) modern rustic settlements. Similar to spontaneous vegetation, the classification of ornamental flora reflects both basic natural gradients (i.e. altitude) and man-made factors (i.e. the preferences for certain plants and associated management practices). Alien taxa associated with modern neighbourhoods are characterised by a relatively higher invasion potential than those from, for example, old rustic settlements. This is especially true for woody species which can spread in ruderal habitats as a result of urban sprawl. Our results showed that the classification method, commonly used to analyse vegetation data, can also be applied to ornamental flora.

Limitations of Species Distribution Models Based on Available Climate Change Data: A Case Study in the Azorean Forest

Climate change is gaining attention as a major threat to biodiversity. It is expected to further expand the risk of plant invasion through ecosystem disturbance. Particularly, island ecosystems are under pressure, and climate change may threaten forest-dependent species. However, scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how climate change and biological invasions will affect species interactions and ecosystem processes. The purpose of this study was to identify possible limitations when making species distribution model projections based on predicted climate change. We aimed to know if climatic variables alone were good predictors of habitat suitability, ensuring reliable projections. In particular, we compared the performance of generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and a selection of machine learning techniques (BIOMOD 2) when modelling the distribution of forest species in the Azores, according to the climatic changes predicted to 2100. Some limitations seem to exist when modelling the effect of climate change on species distributions, since the best models also included topographic variables, making modelling based on climate alone less reliable, with model fit varying among modelling approaches, and random forest often providing the best results. Our results emphasize the adoption of a careful study design and algorithm selection process. The uncertainties associated with climate change effect on plant communities as a whole, including their indigenous and invasive components, highlight a pressing need for integrated modelling, monitoring, and experimental work to better realize the consequences of climate change, in order to ensure the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing world.

Nuevas citas de plantas vasculares alóctonas en Cataluña (NE de la península ibérica)

Aportamos citas de cinco plantas alóctonas nuevas para Europa —Commelina erecta, Cylindropuntia fulgida, Dasylirion serratifolium, xGraptosedum y Senecio crassissimus—, dos nuevas para la península ibérica —Lobelia laxiflora subsp. angustifolia y Pennisetum flaccidum— y cuatro nuevas para Cataluña —Dimorphotheca fruticosa, xGasteraloe beguinii, Opuntia elatior y Tradescantia sillamontana—. También presentamos nuevos datos sobre diez plantas poco citadas en Cataluña. En las últimas décadas el cultivo de plantas ornamentales constituye la principal causa de introducción de especies alóctonas a escala mundial, algunas de las cuales son potencialmente invasoras. La mayoría de las plantas que constan en este trabajo son escapadas de cultivos o provienen de vertidos de restos de jardinería. Algunas especies se encuentran localmente naturalizadas y en algún caso podrían presentar un comportamiento invasor.

Climatic Suitability of the Geographic Distribution of Stipa breviflora in Chinese Temperate Grassland under Climate Change

Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. breviflora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results showed that S. breviflora’s geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels—most suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas—based on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora’s potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011–2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively; however, the most suitable area increased and moved to western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results revealed that the distribution area of S. breviflora still has greater potential for expansion.

Warming neutralizes host-specific competitive advantages between a native and invasive herbivore

Although native-invasive species interactions have become a common mechanism shaping ecosystems, whether these interactions shift under warming remains unclear. To investigate how warming may affect native and invasive species separately and together (intraspecific and interspecific competition, respectively) and whether any warming impact is resource dependent, we examined the performance of two competing herbivores (native Pieris canidia and invasive P. rapae) on two common host plants under three temperature settings (control, 3 °C, and 6 °C warming using environmental chambers). The results revealed that warming benefited the development and growth of both Pieris under intraspecific competition, but the benefits were host-plant dependent. Notably, the native or invasive Pieris gained an advantage from interspecific competition (host-plant dependent), but warming neutralized the competitive advantages of either Pieris species. These findings raise the possibility that warming-induced shifts in competitive status may become a crucial mechanism shaping ecosystems worldwide, because most ecosystems are challenged by species invasion and warming. Moreover, this study revealed a discrepancy in species thermal performance between intra- and interspecific competition. Therefore, to predict native-invasive species competition under warming, current thermal performance applications should use species performance curves derived from interspecific rather than intraspecific competition studies (although the latter is more readily available).

Effect of anthropogenic factors, landscape structure, land relief, soil and climate on risk of alien plant invasion at regional scale

We compared the effectiveness of explanatory variables representing different environmental spheres on the risk of alien plant invasion. Using boosted regression trees (BRT), we assessed the effect of anthropogenic factors, soil variables, land relief, climate and landscape structure on neophyte richness (NR) (alien plant species introduced after the 15th century). Data on NR were derived from a 2 × 2 km grid covering a total area of 31,200 km² of the Carpathian massif and its foreground, Central Europe. Each of the examined environmental spheres explained NR, but their explanatory ability varied more than two-folds. Climatic variables explained the highest fraction of deviation, followed by anthropogenic factors, soil type, land relief and landscape structure. The global model, which incorporated crucial variables from all studied environmental spheres, had the best explanatory ability. However, the explained deviation was far smaller than the sum of the deviations explained by the single-sphere models. The global model showed that the deviation that could be explained by variables representing particular spheres, overlapped. The variables representing landscape structure were not included in the global model as they were found to be redundant. Finally, the climatic variables explained a smaller fraction of the deviation than the anthropogenic factors. The partial dependency plots allowed the assessment of the course of dependencies between NR and particular explanatory variables after eliminating the average effect of all other variables. The relationships were usually curvilinear and revealed some values of environmental variables beyond which NR changed considerably.

The changing role of ornamental horticulture in alien plant invasions

The number of alien plants escaping from cultivation into native ecosystems is increasing steadily. We provide an overview of the historical, contemporary and potential future roles of ornamental horticulture in plant invasions. We show that currently at least 75% and 93% of the global naturalised alien flora is grown in domestic and botanical gardens, respectively. Species grown in gardens also have a larger naturalised range than those that are not. After the Middle Ages, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, a global trade network in plants emerged. Since then, cultivated alien species also started to appear in the wild more frequently than non-cultivated aliens globally, particularly during the 19th century. Horticulture still plays a prominent role in current plant introduction, and the monetary value of live-plant imports in different parts of the world is steadily increasing. Historically, botanical gardens - an important component of horticulture - played a major role in displaying, cultivating and distributing new plant discoveries. While the role of botanical gardens in the horticultural supply chain has declined, they are still a significant link, with one-third of institutions involved in retail-plant sales and horticultural research. However, botanical gardens have also become more dependent on commercial nurseries as plant sources, particularly in North America. Plants selected for ornamental purposes are not a random selection of the global flora, and some of the plant characteristics promoted through horticulture, such as fast growth, also promote invasion. Efforts to breed non-invasive plant cultivars are still rare. Socio-economical, technological, and environmental changes will lead to novel patterns of plant introductions and invasion opportunities for the species that are already cultivated. We describe the role that horticulture could play in mediating these changes. We identify current research challenges, and call for more research efforts on the past and current role of horticulture in plant invasions. This is required to develop science-based regulatory frameworks to prevent further plant invasions.

Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.

Level of environmental threat posed by horticultural trade in Cactaceae

Ornamental horticulture has been identified as an important threat to plant biodiversity and is a major pathway for plant invasions worldwide. In this context, the family Cactaceae is particularly challenging because it is considered the fifth most threatened large taxonomic group in the world; several species are among the most widespread and damaging invasive species; and Cactaceae is one of the most popular horticultural plant groups. Based on the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna and the 11 largest online auction sites selling cacti, we documented the international cactus trade. To provide an in-depth look at the dynamics of the industry, we surveyed the businesses involved in the cactus trade in South Africa (a hotspot of cactus trade and invasions). We purchased seeds of every available species and used DNA barcoding to identify species to the genus level. Although <20% of this trade involved threatened species and <3% involved known invasive species, many species were identified by a common name. However, only 0.02% of the globally traded cacti were collected from wild populations. Despite a large commercial network, all South African imports (of which 15% and 1.5% were of species listed as threatened and invasive, respectively) came from the same source. With DNA barcoding, we identified 24% of the species to genus level. Based on our results, we believe that if trade restrictions are placed on the small proportion of cacti that are invasive and there is no major increase in harvesting of native populations, then the commercial trade in cactus poses a negligible environmental threat. However, there are currently no effective methods for easily identifying which cacti are traded, and both the illicit harvesting of cacti from the wild and the informal trade in invasive taxa pose on-going conservation challenges.

Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe?

AIM

Interspecific hybridization can promote invasiveness of alien species. In many regions of the world, public and domestic gardens contain a huge pool of non-native plants. Climate change may relax constraints on their naturalization and hence facilitate hybridization with related species in the resident flora. Here, we evaluate this possible increase in hybridization risk by predicting changes in the overlap of climatically suitable ranges between a set of garden plants and their congeners in the resident flora.

LOCATION

Europe.

METHODS

From the pool of alien garden plants, we selected those which (1) are not naturalized in Europe, but established outside their native range elsewhere in the world; (2) belong to a genus where interspecific hybridization has been previously reported; and (3) have congeners in the native and naturalized flora of Europe. For the resulting set of 34 alien ornamentals as well as for 173 of their European congeners, we fitted species distribution models and projected suitable ranges under the current climate and three future climate scenarios. Changes in range overlap between garden plants and congeners were then assessed by means of the true skill statistic.

RESULTS

Projections suggest that under a warming climate, suitable ranges of garden plants will increase, on average, while those of their congeners will remain constant or shrink, at least under the more severe climate scenarios. The mean overlap in ranges among congeners of the two groups will decrease. Variation among genera is pronounced; however, and for some congeners, range overlap is predicted to increase significantly.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Averaged across all modelled species, our results do not indicate that hybrids between potential future invaders and resident species will emerge more frequently in Europe when climate warms. These average trends do not preclude, however, that hybridization risk may considerably increase in particular genera.