Theoretical models of species’ borders: single species approaches

Mate-choice copying accelerates species range expansion

Mate-choice copying is a type of social learning in which females can change their mate preference after observing the choice of others. This behaviour can potentially affect population evolution and ecology, namely through increased dispersal and reduced local adaptation. Here, we simulated the effects of mate-choice copying in populations expanding across an environmental gradient to understand whether it can accelerate or retard the expansion process. Two mate-choice copying strategies were used: (i) when females target a single individual and (ii) when females target similar individuals. We also simulated cases where the male trait singled out by females with mate choice maps perfectly onto his genotype or is influenced by genotype-by-environment interactions. These rules have different effects on the results. When a trait is determined by genotype alone, populations where copier females target all similar males expand faster and the number of potential copiers increased. However, when preference is determined by genotype-by-environment interactions, populations where copier females target a single male had higher dispersal and also expand faster, but the potential number of copiers decreases. The results show that mate-choice copying can accelerate the expansion process, although its adaptiveness depends on the information animals use in different contexts.

Identifying the abiotic factors that determine the inland range limits of a mesic-adapted lizard species

For most species, the factors that determine geographical range limits are unknown. In mesic-adapted species, populations occurring near the edge of the species' distribution provide ideal study systems to investigate what limits distributional ranges. We aimed to identify the abiotic constraints that preclude an east-Australian mesic-adapted lizard (Lampropholis delicata) from occupying arid environments. We performed lizard surveys at sites spanning an elevation/aridity gradient (380-1070 m) and measured the prevalence of habitat features (logs, rocks, leaf litter, bare ground, solar radiation) in addition to hourly temperatures in a variety of microhabitats available to lizards. Species distribution models (SDM) were used to identify the macroclimatic variables limiting the species' distribution. At its inland range limit, L. delicata is associated with mesic high-elevation forests with complex microhabitat structures, which gradually decline in availability toward lower (and more arid) elevations where the species is absent. Moreover, L. delicata is absent from sites with a shallow leaf litter layer, in which daily temperatures exceed the species' thermal preference range, which we determined in a laboratory thermal gradient. In regards to macroclimate, SDM revealed that temperature seasonality is the primary variable predicting the species' distribution, suggesting that L. delicata avoids inland areas owing to their high annual thermal variability. By combining multiple lines of evidence, this research highlights that habitat and microclimate suitability-not solely macroclimate suitability-are important range-limiting factors for mesic ectotherms and should be incorporated in studies addressing range-limiting hypotheses.

Adaptive constraints at the range edge of a widespread and expanding invasive plant

Identifying the factors that facilitate and limit invasive species' range expansion has both practical and theoretical importance, especially at the range edges. Here, we used reciprocal common garden experiments spanning the North/South and East/West range that include the North American core, intermediate and range edges of the globally invasive plant, Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense) to investigate the interplay of climate, biotic interactions (i.e. competition) and patterns of adaptation. Our results suggest that the rapid range expansion of Johnsongrass into diverse environments across wide geographies occurred largely without local adaptation, but that further range expansion may be restricted by a fitness trade-off that limits population growth at the range edge. Interestingly, plant competition strongly dampened Johnsongrass growth but did not change the rank order performance of populations within a garden, though this varied among gardens (climates). Our findings highlight the importance of including the range edge when studying the range dynamics of invasive species, especially as we try to understand how invasive species will respond to accelerating global changes.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

Are populations less genetically diverse and more differentiated at the species range edges? Analysis of the quantitative trait and molecular variation in wild oat Avena sterilis

Although understanding factors determining the genetic makeup of natural populations has long been an important goal of evolutionary biology, the effect of population position within the species range (i.e., interior vs. edge) on species genetic variation is still unclear. According to the ‘abundant center’ hypothesis, the range edge populations are expected to exhibit lower genetic variation and higher differentiation than core populations because of their greater spatial isolation and smaller size. We tested these predictions by comparing the extent and structure of neutral (SSR) and quantitative trait genetic variation in 20 populations of an annual grass Avena sterilis hierarchically sampled at the species range core and two opposite edges. Within-population genetic diversity was reduced at the desert range edge compared to the range core as assessed by six SSR markers but not by eight quantitative traits; no reduction was detected at the mountain edge. Genetic differentiation among populations was higher at the desert range edge than the range core in both molecular markers and quantitative traits, but not at the mountain edge. Our results imply that the pattern of population genetic variation at the species range edges largely depends on the steepness of the environmental cline that has a major effect on species fitness. The more gradual the environmental cline from the species interior towards the edge, the higher the probability of detecting reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation of peripheral populations as predicted by the ‘abundant center’ hypothesis.

Understanding the relationship between dispersal and range size

The drivers of variability in species range sizes remain an outstanding enigma in ecology. The theoretical expectation of a positive dispersal-range size relationship has received mixed empirical support, despite dispersal being one of the most prominent hypothesised predictors of range size. Here, we synthesised results from 86 studies examining the dispersal-range size relationship for plants and animals in marine, terrestrial and freshwater realms. Overall, our meta-analysis showed that dispersal positively affects range size, but its effect is dependent on the clade and dispersal proxy studied. Moreover, despite potential differences in habitat connectivity, we did not find an effect of realm on the dispersal-range size relationship. Finally, the strength of the dispersal-range size relationship was dependent on latitude, range size metric and the taxonomic breadth of the study clade. Our synthesis emphasizes the importance of developing a mechanistic understanding of the trait to dispersal to range size relationship, considering the complexity of dispersal departure, transfer and settlement, as well as evolutionary components such as time for range expansion, speciation and past geological-environmental dynamics. We, therefore, call for a more integrative view of the dispersal process and its causal relationship with range size.

The effects of protected areas on the ecological niches of birds and mammals

Protected areas are a cornerstone for biodiversity conservation, and typically support more natural and undisturbed habitats compared to unprotected lands. The effect of protected areas on intra-specific ecological niche has been rarely investigated. Here, we explore potential differences in ecological niche properties of birds and mammals across protected and unprotected areas, and relate such differences to species traits. We combine two decades of survey data of birds and mammals from protected and unprotected areas, and apply robust matching to obtain a set of environmentally comparable protected and unprotected sites. Next, we calculate intra-specific niche volume change and habitat shift between protected and unprotected areas, and use generalized linear mixed models to explain these responses with species traits (habitat specialization, body mass, diet, and red list status). The majority of bird and mammal species (83% and 90%, respectively) show different habitat use when occurring within and outside protected areas, with the magnitude of this shift highly varying across species. A minority of species (16% of birds and 10% of mammals) do not change their niche volume nor shift their habitat between protected and unprotected areas. Variation in niche properties is largely unrelated to species traits. Overall, the varying ecological niche responses of birds and mammals to protected areas underscore that there is no universal niche-based response, and that niche responses to land protection are species-specific.

Can fisheries bioenergetics modelling refine spatially explicit assessments of climate change vulnerability?

Rising water temperature under climate change is affecting the physiology, population dynamics and geographic distribution of freshwater taxa. We propose a novel application of individual-based bioenergetics modelling (BEM) to assess the physiological impacts of warming on freshwater fishes across broad spatial extents. We test this approach using the Guadalupe bass (Micropterus treculii), a species of conservation and recreational significance that is endemic to central TX, USA. We projected historical-to-future changes (middle 20th century to end of 21st century) in daily bioenergetics of individual fish across 7872 stream reaches and compared this output to changes in reach occupancy derived from traditional species distribution modelling (SDM). SDMs project an 8.7% to 52.1% decrease in reach occupancy, depending on model parameterizations and climate change scenarios. Persistence is projected in the central Edwards Plateau region, whereas extirpations are projected for the warmer southeastern region. BEM projected a median 79.3% and 143.2% increase in somatic growth of age-1 Guadalupe bass across historically occupied reaches under moderate and severe climate change scenarios, respectively. Higher end-of-year body size under future climate was caused by a longer growing season. Future scenarios exploring suppressed or enhanced prey consumption suggest that small changes in prey availability will have relatively greater effects on growth than forecasted changes in temperature. Projected growth was geographically discordant with SDM-based habitat suitability, suggesting that SDMs do not accurately reflect fundamental thermal niche dimensions. Our assessment suggests that for locations where the species persists, Guadalupe bass may benefit from warming, although realized consumption gains will depend on seasonal, spatially varying changes in prey availability and other biotic and abiotic factors. More generally, we demonstrate that uniting species-specific BEM with spatially explicit climate change projections can elucidate the physiological impacts of climate change-including seasonal variation-on freshwater fishes across broad geographic extents to complement traditional SDM.

Effects of species interactions on the potential for evolution at species' range limits

Species' ranges are limited by both ecological and evolutionary constraints. While there is a growing appreciation that ecological constraints include interactions among species, like competition, we know relatively little about how interactions contribute to evolutionary constraints at species' niche and range limits. Building on concepts from community ecology and evolutionary biology, we review how biotic interactions can influence adaptation at range limits by impeding the demographic conditions that facilitate evolution (which we term a 'demographic pathway to adaptation'), and/or by imposing evolutionary trade-offs with the abiotic environment (a 'trade-offs pathway'). While theory for the former is well-developed, theory for the trade-offs pathway is not, and empirical evidence is scarce for both. Therefore, we develop a model to illustrate how fitness trade-offs along biotic and abiotic gradients could affect the potential for range expansion and niche evolution following ecological release. The model shows that which genotypes are favoured at species' range edges can depend strongly on the biotic context and the nature of fitness trade-offs. Experiments that characterize trade-offs and properly account for biotic context are needed to predict which species will expand their niche or range in response to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Introduction to the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments'

Understanding where, when and how species' ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species' range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species' distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits

Environmental fluctuations are pervasive in nature, but the influence of non-directional temporal variation on range limits has received scant attention. We synthesize insights from the literature and use simple models to make conceptual points about the potentially wide range of ecological and evolutionary effects of temporal variation on range limits. Because organisms respond nonlinearly to environmental conditions, temporal variation can directionally alter long-term growth rates, either to shrink or to expand ranges. We illustrate this diversity of outcomes with a model of competition along a mortality gradient. Temporal variation can permit transitions between alternative states, potentially facilitating range expansion. We show this for variation in dispersal, using simple source-sink population models (with strong Allee effects, or with gene flow hampering local adaptation). Temporal variation enhances extinction risk owing to demographic stochasticity, rare events, and loss of genetic variation, all tending to shrink ranges. However, specific adaptations to exploit variation (including dispersal) may permit larger ranges than in similar but constant environments. Grappling with temporal variation is essential both to understand eco-evolutionary dynamics at range limits and to guide conservation and management strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Does pollen limitation limit plant ranges? Evidence and implications

Sexual reproduction often declines towards range edges, reducing fitness, dispersal and adaptive potential. For plants, sexual reproduction is frequently limited by inadequate pollination. While case studies show that pollen limitation can limit plant distributions, the extent to which pollination commonly declines towards plant range edges is unknown. Here, we use global databases of pollen-supplementation experiments and plant occurrence data to test whether pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges, using a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis. While there was significant pollen limitation across studies, we found little evidence that pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges. Pollen limitation was not stronger towards the tropics, nor at species' equatorward versus poleward range limits. Meta-analysis results are consistent with results from targeted experiments, in which pollen limitation increased significantly towards only 14% of 14 plant range edges, suggesting that pollination contributes to range limits less often than do other interactions. Together, these results suggest pollination is one of the rich variety of potential ecological factors that can contribute to range limits, rather than a generally important constraint on plant distributions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Personality, density and habitat drive the dispersal of invasive crayfish

There is increasing evidence that personality traits may drive dispersal patterns of animals, including invasive species. We investigated, using the widespread signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus as a model invasive species, whether effects of personality traits on dispersal were independent of, or affected by, other factors including population density, habitat, crayfish size, sex and limb loss, along an invasion gradient. Behavioural traits (boldness, activity, exploration, willingness to climb) of 310 individually marked signal crayfish were measured at fully-established, newly-established and invasion front sites of two upland streams. After a period at liberty, recaptured crayfish were reassessed for behavioural traits (newly-established, invasion front). Dispersal distance and direction of crayfish movement, local population density, fine-scale habitat characteristics and crayfish size, sex and limb loss were also measured. Individual crayfish exhibited consistency in behavioural traits over time which formed a behavioural syndrome. Dispersal was both positively and negatively affected by personality traits, positively by local population density and negatively by refuge availability. No effect of size, sex and limb loss was recorded. Personality played a role in promoting dispersal but population density and local habitat complexity were also important determinants. Predicting biological invasion in animals is likely to require better integration of these processes.

High turn-over rates at the upper range limit and elevational source-sink dynamics in a widespread songbird

The formation of an upper distributional range limit for species breeding along mountain slopes is often based on environmental gradients resulting in changing demographic rates towards high elevations. However, we still lack an empirical understanding of how the interplay of demographic parameters forms the upper range limit in highly mobile species. Here, we study apparent survival and within-study area dispersal over a 700 m elevational gradient in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) by using 15 years of capture-mark-recapture data. Annual apparent survival of adult breeding birds decreased while breeding dispersal probability of adult females, but not males increased towards the upper range limit. Individuals at high elevations dispersed to farms situated at elevations lower than would be expected by random dispersal. These results suggest higher turn-over rates of breeding individuals at high elevations, an elevational increase in immigration and thus, within-population source-sink dynamics between low and high elevations. The formation of the upper range limit therefore is based on preference for low-elevation breeding sites and immigration to high elevations. Thus, shifts of the upper range limit are not only affected by changes in the quality of high-elevation habitats but also by factors affecting the number of immigrants produced at low elevations.

Differential Tolerance and Seasonal Adaptation to Temperature and Salinity Stress at a Dynamic Range Boundary Between Estuarine Gastropods

AbstractInsight into how coastal organisms will respond to changing temperature and salinity regimes may be derived from studies of adaptation to fluctuating estuarine environments, especially under stressful range-edge conditions. We characterized a dynamic range boundary between two estuarine sea slugs, Alderia modesta (distributed across the North Pacific and North Atlantic) and Alderia willowi, known from southern and central California. The species overlap from Bodega Bay to San Francisco Bay, where populations are dominated by A. modesta after winter rains but by A. willowi after peak summer temperatures. Laboratory assays confirmed superior tolerance to low salinity for the northern species, A. modesta: encapsulated embryos developed at 8 ppt, larvae survived at 4-6 ppt, and adults survived repeated exposure to 2 ppt, salinities that reduced development or survival for the same stages of A. willowi. Adults did not appreciably differ in their high-temperature threshold, however. Each species showed increased tolerance to either temperature or salinity stress at its range margin, indicating plasticity or local adaptation, but at the cost of reduced tolerance to the other stressor. At its northern limit, A. willowi became more tolerant of low salinity during the winter rainy season, but also less heat tolerant. Conversely, A. modesta became more heat resistant from spring to summer at its southern limit, but less tolerant of low salinity. Trade-offs in stress tolerance may generally constrain adaptation and limit biotic response to a rapidly changing environment, as well as differentiating species niches.

Evolution of cold tolerance and thermal plasticity in life history, behaviour and physiology during a poleward range expansion

Many species that are moving polewards encounter novel thermal regimes to which they have to adapt. Therefore, rapid evolution of thermal tolerance and of thermal plasticity in fitness-related traits in edge populations can be crucial for the success and speed of range expansions. We tested for adaptation in cold tolerance and in life history, behavioural and physiological traits and their thermal plasticity during a poleward range expansion. We reconstructed the thermal performance curves of life history (survival, growth and development rates), behaviour (food intake) and cold tolerance (chill coma recovery time) in the aquatic larval stage of the damselfly Ischnura elegans that is currently showing a poleward range expansion in northern Europe. We studied larvae from three edge and three core populations using a common-garden experiment. Consistent with the colder annual temperatures, larvae at the expansion front evolved an improved cold tolerance. The edge populations showed no overall (across temperatures) evolution of a faster life history that would improve their range-shifting ability. Moreover, consistent with damselfly edge populations from colder latitudes, edge populations evolved at the highest rearing temperature (28°C) a faster development rate, likely to better exploit the rare periods with higher temperatures. This was associated with a higher food intake and a lower metabolic rate. In conclusion, our results suggest that the edge populations rapidly evolved adaptive changes in trait means and thermal plasticity to the novel thermal conditions at the edge front. Our results highlight the importance of considering besides trait plasticity and the evolution of trait means, also the evolution of trait plasticity to improve forecasts of responses to climate change.

An experimental test of the Allee effect range limitation hypothesis

Understanding how climate change impacts trailing‐edge populations requires information about how abiotic and biotic factors limit their distributions. Theory indicates that socially mediated Allee effects can limit species distributions by suppressing growth rates of peripheral populations when social information is scarce.

The goal of our research was to determine if socially mediated Allee effects limit the distribution of Canada warbler Cardellina canadensis at the trailing‐edge of the geographic range.

Using 4 years of observational data from 71 sites and experimental data at 10 sites, we tested two predictions of the socially mediated range limitation hypothesis: (a) local growth rates should be positively correlated with local density and (b) the addition of social cues immediately outside the trailing‐edge range boundary would result in colonization of formerly unoccupied habitat and increased growth rates. During the third breeding season, social cues were experimentally added at 10 formerly unoccupied sites within and beyond the species’ local range margin to determine if the addition of social information could increase density and effectively expand the species’ range.

No experimental sites were colonized after adding social cues and no evidence of Allee effects was found. Rather, temperature, precipitation and negative density dependence strongly influenced population growth rates.

Although theoretical models indicate that the presence of socially mediated Allee effects at species range boundaries could increase the rate of climate‐induced range shifts and local extinctions, empirical results from the first test of this hypothesis suggest that Allee effects play a minimal role in limiting species’ distributions.

Interspecific competition slows range expansion and shapes range boundaries

Species expanding into new habitats as a result of climate change or human introductions will frequently encounter resident competitors. Theoretical models suggest that such interspecific competition can alter the speed of expansion and the shape of expanding range boundaries. However, competitive interactions are rarely considered when forecasting the success or speed of expansion, in part because there has been no direct experimental evidence that competition affects either expansion speed or boundary shape. Here we demonstrate that interspecific competition alters both expansion speed and range boundary shape. Using a two-species experimental system of the flour beetles Tribolium castaneum and Tribolium confusum, we show that interspecific competition dramatically slows expansion across a landscape over multiple generations. Using a parameterized stochastic model of expansion, we find that this slowdown can persist over the long term. We also find that the shape of the moving range boundary changes continuously over many generations of expansion, first steepening and then becoming shallower, due to the competitive effect of the resident and density-dependent dispersal of the invader. This dynamic boundary shape suggests that current forecasting approaches assuming a constant shape could be misleading. More broadly, our results demonstrate that interactions between competing species can play a large role during range expansions and thus should be included in models and studies that monitor, forecast, or manage expansions in natural systems.

Hybridization and geographic distribution shapes the spatial genetic structure of two co-occurring orchid species

Multiple ecological and life-history traits shape the fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) of a given population. The occurrence in core versus peripheral populations, levels of outcrossing, pollen and seed dispersal, and hybridization are important biological properties that influence the kinship of individuals within populations. We examined spatial genetic structure within 15 populations of Epidendrum fulgens and E. puniceoluteum distributed along a linear gradient of Brazilian coastal vegetation, including both allopatric and sympatric populations where the two orchid species hybridize. We analyzed 581 mapped specimens using nine simple sequence repeat loci, aiming to investigate how geographic distribution and hybridization shape within-population FSGS. A significant increase in FSGS was found towards peripheral populations, compared to core populations. Analysis of short-distance and long-distance components of FSGS identified biparental inbreeding and higher levels of FSGS at peripheral populations, when compared to core populations. In contrast, the relatively high density of reproductive adults in core populations potentially leads to highly overlapping seed and pollen movement, decreasing FSGS. Hybridization was an important factor shaping within-population spatial genetic structure at sympatric sites, decreasing the FSGS observed in parental species. Our results indicate that different ecological forces act in concert to create a gradient of FSGS along species distribution ranges, shaped by extensive levels of intraspecific and interspecific gene exchange.

Local adaptation stops where ecological gradients steepen or are interrupted

Population genetic models of evolution along linear environmental gradients cannot explain why adaptation stops at ecological margins. This is because, unless models impose reductions in carrying capacity at species' edges, the dominant effect of gene flow is to increase genetic variance and adaptive potential rather than swamping local adaptation. This allows the population to match even very steep changes in trait optima. We extend our previous simulations to explore two nonlinear models of ecological gradients: (a) a sigmoid (steepening) gradient and (b) a linear gradient with a flat centre of variable width. We compare the parameter conditions that allow local adaptation and range expansion from the centre, with those that permit the persistence of a perfectly adapted population distributed across the entire range. Along nonlinear gradients, colonization is easier, and extinction rarer, than along a linear gradient. This is because the shallow environmental gradient near the range centre does not cause gene flow to increase genetic variation, and so does not result in reduced population density. However, as gradient steepness increases, gene flow inflates genetic variance and reduces local population density sufficiently that genetic drift overcomes local selection, creating a finite range margin. When a flat centre is superimposed on a linear gradient, gene flow increases genetic variation dramatically at its edges, leading to an abrupt reduction in density that prevents niche expansion. Remarkably local interruptions in a linear ecological gradient (of a width much less than the mean dispersal distance) can prevent local adaptation beyond this flat centre. In contrast to other situations, this effect is stronger and more consistent where carrying capacity is high. Practically speaking, this means that habitat improvement at patch margins will make evolutionary rescue more likely. By contrast, even small improvements in habitat at patch centres may confine populations to limited areas of ecological space.

Altitudinal limits of Eastern Himalayan birds are created by competition past and present

The degree to which interspecific competition structures diverse communities is an oft-debated topic. An approach to answering this question is to examine spatial patterns of coexistence among putatively competing species. The degree to which interspecies competition predominates in a community can have important effects on our ability predict the response of that community to perturbations, most notably climate change, when shifting species’ ranges may result in novel species assemblages. We present a study on the avifauna of the Eastern Himalayas. We hypothesize that in a community where competitive interactions predominate, there will be a relationship between pairwise altitudinal overlaps and morphological differences between species. Moreover, we hypothesize that both morphological traits and altitudinal traits depart from a Brownian motion evolution model, resulting in species trait covariances having a phylogenetic component. We find a significant relationship between morphological dissimilarity and altitudinal overlaps of species pairs. We also find that closely related species are significantly more altitudinally stratified than a null model would predict. However, as more distantly related species pairs are included in the analysis, this pattern disappears, indicating that competitive interactions predominate only in closely related species. This is further suggested by the fact that altitudinal ranges themselves are phylogenetically overdispersed at the genus level, as are morphological traits. This effect disappears when the entire phylogeny is examined, with morphology and altitude being phylogenetically underdispersed. Model fitting suggests that individual clades have evolved towards local clade-specific fitness peaks, while within-clade results show evidence of niche partitioning. We interpret these results as a tension between competition on shorter time scales and selection on longer time scales, where competition forces closely-related species away from fitness peaks in order to allow for niche separation and hence coexistence, suggesting that this effect is partially responsible for the recent diversification of Eastern Himalayan avifauna.

Local adaptation, dispersal evolution, and the spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single-species population model along a one-dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco-evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave-like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco-evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco-evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.

Genetic constraints of population expansion of the Carpathian lynx at the western edge of its native distribution range in Central Europe

Even though populations of many large carnivores are expanding throughout Europe, the Eurasian lynx population in the Western Carpathians seems unable to spread beyond the western boundaries of its current distributional range. Many factors, both extrinsic and intrinsic, can influence the potential for range expansion: landscape fragmentation, natal philopatry, low natural fecundity and high mortality, and low and sex-biased dispersal rates. In this study we used non-invasive genetic sampling to determine population size fluctuation, sub-structuring and social organisation of the peripheral lynx population at the Czech-Slovak border. Even though the population size has been relatively stable over the period studied (2010-2016), the individual inbreeding coefficients of residents at the end of the study were much higher than those of founders at the beginning of the study. While non-resident individuals (predominantly males) occurred regularly in the study population, only resident individuals with well-established home ranges participated in breeding and produced offspring. Almost half the offspring detected in the study (predominantly females) settled in or near the natal area. Subsequent incestuous mating resulted in production of inbred individuals, reduction of effective population size of the population, and sub-structuring of the population through formation of two distinct family lineages. Our study illustrates how social constraints, such as territoriality, breeding of residents and natal philopatry of females, lead to incestuous mating in small-sized populations, especially at the periphery of their distribution. This threat should be taken into account in planning of conservation and population recovery of species with similar social structure.

Marginal sinks or potential refuges? Costs and benefits for coral-obligate reef fishes at deep range margins

Escalating climate-related disturbances and asymmetric habitat losses will increasingly result in species living in more marginal habitats. Marginal habitats may represent important refuges if individuals can acquire adequate resources to survive and reproduce. However, resources at range margins are often distributed more sparsely; therefore, increased effort to acquire resources can result in suboptimal performance and lead to marginal populations becoming non-self-sustaining sink-populations. Shifting resource availability is likely to be particularly problematic for dietary specialists. Here, we use extensive in situ behavioural observations and physiological condition measurements to examine the costs and benefits of resource-acquisition along a depth gradient in two obligate corallivore reef fishes with contrasting levels of dietary specialization. As expected, the space used to secure coral resources increased towards the lower depth margin. However, increased territory sizes resulted in equal or greater availability of resources within deeper territories. In addition, we observed decreased competition and no differences in foraging distance, pairing behaviour, body condition or fecundity at greater depths. Contrary to expectation, our results demonstrate that coral-obligate fishes can select high-quality coral patches on the deeper-reef to access equal or greater resources than their shallow-water counterparts, with no extra costs. This suggests depth offers a viable potential refuge for some at-risk coral-specialist fishes.

Mediterranean Islands Hosting Marginal and Peripheral Forest Tree Populations: The Case of Pinus brutia Ten. in Cyprus

Mediterranean islands have served as important Tertiary and glacial refuges, hosting important peripheral and ecologically marginal forest tree populations. These populations, presumably harboring unique gene complexes, are particularly interesting in the context of climate change. Pinus brutia Ten. is widespread in the eastern Mediterranean Basin and in Cyprus in particular it is the most common tree species. This study evaluated genetic patterns and morphoanatomical local adaptation along the species geographical distribution and altitudinal range in Cyprus. Analysis showed that the Cyprus population of P. brutia is a peripheral population with high genetic diversity, comprised of different subpopulations. Evidence suggests the presence of ongoing dynamic evolutionary processes among the different subpopulations, while the most relic and isolated subpopulations exhibited a decreased genetic diversity compared to the most compact subpopulations in the central area of the island. These results could be the consequence of the small size and prolonged isolation of the former. Comparing populations along an altitude gradient, higher genetic diversity was detected at the middle level. The phenotypic plasticity observed is particularly important for the adaptive potential of P. brutia in an island environment, since it allows rapid change in local environmental conditions.

Evidence of niche shift and invasion potential of Lithobates catesbeianus in the habitat of Mexican endemic frogs

Invasive alien species are one of most severe threats to biodiversity and natural resources. These biological invasions have been studied from the niche conservatism and niche shifts perspective. Niche differentiation may result from changes in fundamental niche or realized niche or both; in biological invasions, niche differences between native and non-native ranges can appear through niche expansion, niche unfilling and niche stability. The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus is an invasive species that can have negative impacts on native amphibian populations. This research examines the climate niche shifts of this frog, its potential range of expansion in Mexico and the risk of invasion by bullfrog in the habitats of 82 frog species endemic to Mexico, that based on their climatic niche similarity were divided in four ecological groups. The results indicate that species in two ecological groups were the most vulnerable to invasion by bullfrog. However, the climate niche shifts of L. catesbeianus may allow it to adapt to new environmental conditions, so species from the two remaining groups cannot be dismissed as not vulnerable. This information is valuable for decision making in prioritizing areas for conservation of Mexican endemic frogs.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species’ overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.