The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding in trees

The 'queen of the Andes' (Puya raimondii) is genetically fragile and fragmented: a consequence of long generation time and semelparity?

Understanding how life history shapes genetic diversity is a fundamental issue in evolutionary biology, with important consequences for conservation. However, we still have an incomplete picture of the impact of life history on genome-wide patterns of diversity, especially in long-lived semelparous plants. Puya raimondii is a high-altitude semelparous species from the Andes that flowers at 40-100 years of age. We sequenced the whole genome and estimated the nucleotide diversity of 200 individuals sampled from nine populations. Coalescent-based approaches were then used to infer past population dynamics. Finally, these results were compared with results obtained for the iteroparous species, Puya macrura. The nine populations of P. raimondii were highly divergent, highly inbred, and carried an exceptionally high genetic load. They are genetically depauperate, although, locally in the genome, balancing selection contributed to the maintenance of genetic polymorphism. While both P. raimondii and P. macrura went through a severe bottleneck during the Pleistocene, P. raimondii did not recover from it and continuously declined, while P. macrura managed to bounce back. Our results demonstrate the importance of life history, in particular generation time and reproductive strategy, in affecting population dynamics and genomic variation, and illustrate the genetic fragility of long-lived semelparous plants.

Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Patterns of spawning and settlement of reef fishes as strategic responses to post-settlement competition

Settlement is a critical transition in the life history of reef fish, and the timing of this event can have a strong effect on fitness. Key factors that influence settlement timing are predictable lunar cyclic variation in tidal currents, moonlight, and nocturnal predation risk as larvae transition from pelagic to benthic environments. However, populations typically display wide variation in the arrival of settlers over the lunar cycle. This variation is often hypothesized to result from unpredictable conditions in the pelagic environment and bet-hedging by spawning adults. Here, we consider the hypothesis that the timing of spawning and settlement is a strategic response to post-settlement competition. We use a game theoretic model to predict spawning and settlement distributions when fish face a tradeoff between minimizing density-independent predation risk while crossing the reef crest vs. avoiding high competitor density on settlement habitat. In general, we expect competition to spread spawning over time such that settlement is distributed around the lunar phase with the lowest predation risk, similar to an ideal free distribution in which competition spreads competitors across space. We examine the effects of overcompensating density dependence, age-dependent competition, and competition among daily settler cohorts. Our model predicts that even in the absence of stochastic variation in the larval environment, competition can result in qualitative divergence between spawning and settlement distributions. Furthermore, we show that if competitive strength increases with settler age, competition results in covariation between settler age and settlement date, with older larvae settling when predation risk is minimal. We predict that competition between daily cohorts delays peak settlement, with priority effects potentially selecting for a multimodal settlement distribution.

A North American climate-masting-irruption teleconnection and its change under future climate

Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems.

Masting, fire-stimulated flowering, and the evolutionary ecology of synchronized reproduction

Synchronized episodic reproduction among long-lived plants shapes ecological interactions, ecosystem dynamics, and evolutionary processes worldwide. Two active scientific fields investigate the causes and consequences of such synchronized reproduction: the fields of masting and fire-stimulated flowering. While parallels between masting and fire-stimulated flowering have been previously noted, there has been little dialogue between these historically independent fields. We predict that the synthesis of these fields will facilitate new insight into the causes and consequences of synchronized reproduction. Here we briefly review parallels between masting and fire-stimulated flowering, using two case studies and a database of 1870 plant species to facilitate methodological, conceptual, geographical, taxonomic, and phylogenetic comparisons. We identify avenues for future research and describe three key opportunities associated with synthesis. First, the taxonomic and geographic complementarity of empirical studies from these historically independent fields highlights the potential to derive more general inferences about global patterns and consequences of synchronized reproduction in perennial plants. Second, masting's well developed conceptual framework for evaluating adaptive hypotheses can help guide empirical studies of fire-stimulated species and enable stronger inferences about the evolutionary ecology of fire-stimulated flowering. Third, experimental manipulation of reproductive variation in fire-stimulated species presents unique opportunities to empirically investigate foundational questions about ecological and evolutionary processes underlying synchronized reproduction. Synthesis of these fields and their complementary insights offers a unique opportunity to advance our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of synchronized reproduction in perennial plants.

The contribution of carbon budget to masting intervals in Veratrum album populations inhabiting different elevations

PREMISE

Mast flowering/seeding is often more extreme in lower-resource environments, such as alpine compared to lowland habitats. We studied a masting herb that had less extreme masting at higher elevations, and tested if this difference could be explained by higher photosynthetic productivity and/or lower reproductive investment at the higher-elevation sites.

METHODS

We examined the relationship between flowering intervals and carbon budget (i.e., the balance between reproductive investment and annual carbon fixation) in a masting herb, Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum, across five lowland and six alpine populations in northern Japan. We evaluated the previous flowering histories of individual plants based on rhizome morphology and analyzed the masting patterns of individual populations. Total mass of the reproductive organs, as a proxy of reproductive investment, was compared between the lowland and alpine populations. Annual carbon fixation was estimated on the basis of photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area per plant, and seasonal transition of light availability.

RESULTS

Interval between high-flowering years was shorter and total reproductive investment was smaller in the alpine than in the lowland populations. Owing to its high photosynthetic capacity and continuous bright conditions, annual carbon fixation per plant was 1.5 times greater in alpine habitat than in lowland habitat. These results suggest that V. album alpine populations have shorter flowering intervals than lowland populations due to faster recovery from energy loss after reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that masting intervals in V. album populations can be explained by habitat-specific carbon budget balances.

Seed masting as a mechanism for escape from pathogens

Seed masting, a reproductive strategy characterized by variable and synchronous investment in reproduction among years, has attracted much attention. Masting trees incur a cost in delayed reproduction, and thus masting requires an ecological or evolutionary explanation. The two broad causal mechanisms to explain seed masting are resource availability and economies of scale (EOS); the former assumes reproductive investment simply covaries with environment, the latter suggests an adaptive advantage. Two of the most commonly proposed EOS for masting are predator satiation and pollination efficiency. Here we suggest an additional EOS: pathogen escape. We borrow from the disease ecology literature to describe alternative models of pathogen-mediated masting. By comparing and contrasting their ecological dynamics, we show how predator satiation and pathogen escape may favour masting through similar mechanisms of mass-action interactions and temporal delays. However, pathogen- and predator-mediated dynamics may also diverge as a result of host epidemiological structure and the spatial scale of the interaction. We propose that pathogen escape should be considered among the list of putative mechanisms to help explain the many diverse observations of masting across space and phylogeny.

Mysterious Bamboo flowering phenomenon: A literature review and new perspectives

Bamboo, a globally distributed non-timber forest resource, plays a critical role in local ecosystems and economies. Despite its significance, the understanding of bamboo's long and unpredictable flowering cycles remains limited. Our bibliometric analysis of bamboo flowering-related literature from the Web of Science database reveals an initial focus on regeneration studies, with a recent trend shifting towards microscopic and molecular perspectives. Furthermore, our narrative review emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as the proportion of flowering culms and the duration of flowering in classifying bamboo flowering phenomena. While numerous studies have endorsed the predator saturation hypothesis as a suitable explanation for the synchronicity of bamboo flowering, no existing theory explains bamboo's prolonged flowering cycles. We propose a new natural selection hypothesis as a potential explanation for these extraordinary cycles, underscoring the need for further research in this area. Despite the substantial volume of data accumulated on bamboo flowering, these resources have not been fully exploited in recent research. Future studies would benefit from more comprehensive data collection methods, encompassing field observations, satellite remote sensing data, and omics data. The convergence of traditional ecological studies with molecular techniques may pave the way for significant advancements in bamboo flowering research.

Grazing hinders seed dispersal during crop failure in a declining oak woodland

Masting, the synchronized production of variable quantities of seeds, is a global phenomenon in diverse ecosystems, including treed grazing systems where trees and grazing animals coexist. This phenomenon can be interspersed with years of extreme crop failure, whose frequency and unpredictability are increasing. Yet, the combined impact of crop failure and grazing on seed dispersal and seed-to-seedling transition remains poorly understood. To address this concern, we investigated rodent-mediated cork-oak (Quercus suber) acorn predation, dispersal, and seedling emergence in cattle grazed and non-grazed areas in central Portugal during years with contrasting masting seasons. We found that the acorns supplied in the crop failure year were dispersed more rapidly and over longer distances than those supplied in the crop success year when other acorns were naturally available. The crop failure year also had 83 % more dispersal events and 84 % more predated acorns than the reproductive success year. However, the higher acorn predation was offset by a 2.4-fold higher percentage of unpredated dispersed acorns recruiting into seedlings. Both years ended up recruiting a similar number of seedlings. Acorns emerged seedlings 3.4 times farther in the crop failure year than in the crop success year. Cattle grazing was the main constraint on seed dispersal distance by rodents, reducing it by 53 %. Our study provides empirical evidence that cattle grazing modulates how an extreme crop failure year can surprisingly be an opportunity for the few existing acorns to have seedlings established farther apart than in a crop success year. If we are to better manage and preserve the high conservation and socio-economic value of Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in the face of climate change, we must prioritize fecund trees and carefully manage seed dispersal factors such as cattle grazing, particularly during years of crop failure.

Seed predation-induced Allee effects, seed dispersal and masting jointly drive the diversity of seed sources during population expansion

The environmental factors affecting plant reproduction and effective dispersal, in particular biotic interactions, have a strong influence on plant expansion dynamics, but their demographic and genetic consequences remain an understudied body of theory. Here, we use a mathematical model in a one-dimensional space and on a single reproductive period to describe the joint effects of predispersal seed insect predators foraging strategy and plant reproduction strategy (masting) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of seed sources diversity in the colonisation front of expanding plant populations. We show that certain foraging strategies can result in a higher seed predation rate at the colonisation front compared to the core of the population, leading to an Allee effect. This effect promotes the contribution of seed sources from the core to the colonisation front, with long-distance dispersal further increasing this contribution. As a consequence, our study reveals a novel impact of the predispersal seed predation-induced Allee effect, which mitigates the erosion of diversity in expanding populations. We use rearrangement inequalities to show that masting has a buffering role: it mitigates this seed predation-induced Allee effect. This study shows that predispersal seed predation, plant reproductive strategies and seed dispersal patterns can be intermingled drivers of the diversity of seed sources in expanding plant populations, and opens new perspectives concerning the analysis of more complex models such as integro-difference or reaction-diffusion equations.

Does monocarpic Phyllostachys nigra var. henonis regenerate after flowering in Japan? Insights from 3 years of observation after flowering

Phyllostachys nigra var. henonis, a monocarpic bamboo with a 120-year flowering interval, is next predicted to flower in Japan in the 2020s. Because a huge area of the country is presently covered by stands of this species, post-flowering dieback of these stands and ensuing drastic changes in land cover may cause serious social and/or environmental problems. No study on the regeneration of this bamboo species was conducted during the last flowering event in the 1900s, and the regeneration process of this species is thus still unknown. In 2020, we encountered a localized flowering of P. nigra var. henonis in Japan and used this discovery as a rare opportunity to study the initial regeneration process of the species. Over 3 years, more than 80% of culms in the study site bloomed, but no seed was produced. In addition, no established seedlings were located. These facts strongly suggest that P. nigra var. henonis lacks the ability to produce seeds and cannot undergo sexual regeneration. Some bamboo culms were produced after flowering but died within 1 year of emergence. Small, weak culms (dwarf ramets) also appeared after flowering, but most died within 1 year as well. Three years after flowering, all culms had died, with no sign of regeneration detected. According to our 3 years of observation, this bamboo appears to be hard to regenerate-an idea completely contradicted by the fact that this species has long persisted in Japan. We thus considered other possible regeneration modes for P. nigra var. henonis.

Reproduction alternation in trees: testing the resource depletion hypothesis using experimental fruit removal in Quercus ilex

The keystones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit development would increase nutrient and carbohydrates storage and modify allocation to reproduction and vegetative growth the following year. We removed all the fruits from nine adult Quercus ilex L. trees shortly after fruit set and compared, with nine control trees, the concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), zinc (Zn), potassium (K) and starch in leaves, twigs and trunk before, during and after the development of female flowers and fruits. The following year, we measured the production of vegetative and reproductive organs as well as their location on the new spring shoots. Fruit removal prevented the depletion of N and Zn in leaves during fruit growth. It also modified the seasonal dynamics in Zn, K and starch in twigs, but had no effect on reserves stored in the trunk. Fruit removal increased the production of female flowers and leaves the following year, and decreased the production of male flowers. Our results show that resource depletion operates differently for male and female flowering, because the timing of organ formation and the positioning of flowers in shoot architecture differ between male and female flowers. Our results suggest that N and Zn availability constrain flower production in Q. ilex, but also that other regulatory pathways might be involved. They strongly encourage further experiments manipulating fruit development over multiple years to describe the causal relationships between variations in resource storage and/or uptake, and male and female flower production in masting species.

Oak masting drivers vary between populations depending on their climatic environments

Large interannual variation in seed production, called masting, is very common in wind-pollinated tree populations and has profound implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems and the epidemiology of certain human diseases.^1,2,3,4,5 Comparing the reproductive characteristics of populations established in climatically contrasting environments would provide powerful insight into masting mechanisms, but the required data are extremely scarce. We built a database from an unprecedented fine-scale 8-year survey of 150 sessile oak trees (Quercus petraea) from 15 populations distributed over a broad climatic gradient, including individual recordings of annual flowering effort, fruiting rate, and fruit production. Although oak masting was previously considered to depend mainly on fruiting rate variations,^6,7 we show that the female flowering effort is highly variable from year to year and explains most of the fruiting dynamics in two-thirds of the populations. What drives masting was found to differ among populations living under various climates. In soft-climate populations, the fruiting rate increases initially strongly with the flowering effort, and the intensity of masting results mainly from the flowering synchrony level between individuals. By contrast, the fruiting rate of harsh-climate populations depends mainly on spring weather, which ensures intense masting regardless of the flowering synchronization level. Our work highlights the need for jointly measuring flowering effort and fruit production to decipher the diversity of masting mechanisms among populations. Accounting for such diversity will be decisive in proposing accurate, and possibly contrasted, scenarios about future reproductive patterns of perennial plants with ongoing climate change and their numerous cascading effects.

The selective advantage of mast flowering in Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum: Implications of the predator satiation hypothesis

PREMISE

Synchronous, highly variable flower or seed production among years within a population (i.e., masting) has been reported in numerous perennial plants. Although masting provides ecological advantages such as enhancing pollination efficiency and/or escape from predator attack, little is known about the degree of these advantages and variations in masting behavior among populations of conspecific plants.

METHODS

We determined flowering ramet density and reproductive success (fruit-set success and herbivorous damage) of a perennial herb, Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum, across six lowland and six alpine populations in northern Japan during 2-3 years. We then analyzed the relationship between floral density and reproductive success to assess the ecological significance of mast flowering. Flowering intervals of individual plants were estimated by counting annual scars on rhizomes.

RESULTS

Most populations had mast flowering, but the intervals between flowering for individual plants were shorter in the alpine populations than in the lowland populations. Floral damage by stem borers (dipteran larvae) and seed predation by lepidopteran larvae were intense in the lowland populations. Seed production of individual ramets increased with higher floral density owing to the effective avoidance of floral-stem damage and seed predation. Although stem borers were absent in the alpine habitat, seed predation decreased with higher floral density also in the alpine populations. Pollination success was independent of floral density in both of the alpine and lowland populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These results strongly support the predator satiation hypothesis for mast flowering by this species.

Multi-trophic consequences of mass flowering in two bamboos (Poales: Poaceae)

Mass flowering (masting) has been hypothesized to be an adaptive strategy to satiate florivores/granivores. However, few studies have corroborated this by examining seed predation in multiple flowering patches of varying sizes across a wide geographical range over multiple years. Moreover, the trophic consequences of masting for the parasitoids of florivores/granivores and their feedback effects are poorly understood. Here, we used the nationwide masting of two bamboo species, Sasamorpha borealis var. borealis and Phyllostachys nigra var. henonis, in Japan and compared florivory and seed sets in multiple flowering patches during the masting year and the following sporadic flowering years. We found lower florivory damage in both bamboo species and higher seed set for Sasamorpha borealis var. borealis in patches with massive and spatiotemporally isolated flowering. Additionally, the relative level of parasitism of florivores increased considerably in the sporadic flowering year, particularly in large flowering patches of Sasamorpha borealis var. borealis. Our results indicate the importance of spatiotemporal isolation during masting for satiating two dipteran florivores and suggest that parasitoids might rapidly suppress the extent of florivory in the sporadic flowering years after masting. Collectively, our study highlights the importance of considering multi-trophic consequences in understanding the adaptive significance of masting.

Tropical-temperate comparisons in insect seed predation vary between study levels and years

The biotic interaction hypothesis, which states the species interaction becomes stronger in the tropics, is deeply rooted in classic ecological literature and widely accepted to contribute to the latitudinal gradients of biodiversity. Tests in latitudinal insect-plant interaction have emphasized leaf-eating insects on a single or a few plant species rather than within an entire community and mixed accumulating evidence, leaving the biotic interaction hypothesis disputed. We aimed to test the hypothesis by quantifying insect seed predation in a pair of tropical and temperate forest communities with similar elevations. We applied a consistent study design to sample predispersal seeds with systematically set seed traps in 2019-2020 and examined internally feeding insects. The intensity of seed predation was measured and further applied to tropical versus temperate comparison at two levels (cross-species and community-wide). Our results showed every latitudinal pattern associated with different study levels and years, that is, negative (greater granivory in the tropics in community-wide comparison in 2020), positive (less granivory in the tropics in community-wide and cross-species comparison in 2019), and missing (similar level of granivory in the tropics in cross-species comparisons in 2020). The cross-species level analyses ignore differences among species in seed production and weaken or even lose the latitudinal trend detected by community-wide comparisons. The between-year discrepancy in tropical-temperate comparisons relates to the highly variable annual seed composition in the temperate forest due to mast seeding of dominant species. Our study highlights that long-term community-level researches across biomes are essential to assess the latitudinal biotic interaction hypothesis.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis

Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.

Natural disturbances and masting: from mechanisms to fitness consequences

The timing of seed production and release is highly relevant for successful plant reproduction. Ecological disturbances, if synchronized with reproductive effort, can increase the chances of seeds and seedlings to germinate and establish. This can be especially true under variable and synchronous seed production (masting). Several observational studies have reported worldwide evidence for co-occurrence of disturbances and seed bumper crops in forests. Here, we review the evidence for interaction between disturbances and masting in global plant communities; we highlight feedbacks between these two ecological processes and posit an evolutionary pathway leading to the selection of traits that allow trees to synchronize seed crops with disturbances. Finally, we highlight relevant questions to be tested on the functional and evolutionary relationship between disturbances and masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A brief history of masting research

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Delayed fertilization facilitates flowering time diversity in Fagaceae

Fagaceae includes typical masting species that exhibit highly synchronized and fluctuating acorn production. Fagaceae shows an interesting feature in that fertilization is delayed by several weeks to more than 1 year after pollination. Although delayed fertilization was recorded over a century ago, the evolutionary advantage of delayed fertilization is still poorly understood. Here, we present a new hypothesis that delayed fertilization facilitates temporal niche differentiation via non-overlapping flowering times among species. Comparing flowering and fruiting times in 228 species from five genera in Fagaceae, we first show that there is a close association between a wider spread of flowering times and the likelihood of a 2-year fruiting habit in which there is a long delay from pollination to fertilization. To study the coevolution of flowering time and delayed fertilization, we developed a mathematical model that incorporates the effects of competition for pollinators, seed predator satiation and unfavourable season for reproduction on fitness. The model shows that delayed fertilization facilitates the diversification of flowering time in a population, which is advantageous for animal-pollinated trees that compete over pollinators. Our new hypothesis about the coevolution of delayed fertilization and flowering time will provide new insight into the evolution of masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Studying the genetic basis of masting

The mechanisms underlying mast seeding have traditionally been studied by collecting long-term observational data on seed crops and correlating seedfall with environmental variables. Significant progress in ecological genomics will improve our understanding of the evolution of masting by clarifying the genetic basis of masting traits and the role of natural selection in shaping those traits. Here, we summarize three important aspects in studying the evolution of masting at the genetic level: which traits govern masting, whether those traits are genetically regulated, and which taxa show wide variation in these traits. We then introduce recent studies on the molecular mechanisms of masting. Those studies measure seasonal changes in gene expression in natural conditions to quantify how multiple environmental factors combine to regulate floral initiation, which in many masting plant species is the single largest contributor to among-year variation in seed crops. We show that Fagaceae offers exceptional opportunities for evolutionary investigations because of its diversity at both the phenotypic and genetic levels and existing documented genome sequences. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

An assessment of temporal variability in mast seeding of North American Pinaceae

Our overall objective is to synthesize mast-seeding data on North American Pinaceae to detect characteristic features of reproduction (i.e. development cycle length, serotiny, dispersal agents), and test for patterns in temporal variation based on weather variables. We use a large dataset (n = 286 time series; mean length = 18.9 years) on crop sizes in four conifer genera (Abies, Picea, Pinus, Tsuga) collected between 1960 and 2014. Temporal variability in mast seeding (CVp) for 2 year genera (Abies, Picea, Tsuga) was higher than for Pinus (3 year), and serotinous species had lower CVp than non-serotinous species; there were no relationships of CVp with elevation or latitude. There was no difference in family-wide CVp across four tree regions of North America. Across all genera, July temperature differences between bud initiation and the prior year (ΔT) was more strongly associated with reproduction than absolute temperature. Both CVp and ΔT remained steady over time, while absolute temperature increased by 0.09°C per decade. Our use of the ΔT model included a modification for Pinus, which initiates cone primordia 2 years before seedfall, as opposed to 1 year. These findings have implications for how mast-seeding patterns may change with future increases in temperature, and the adaptive benefits of mast seeding. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Multi-centennial phase-locking between reproduction of a South American conifer and large-scale drivers of climate

Climate forcings determine the episodic occurrence of local climate anomalies that trigger the occurrence of masting events (massive, synchronized and intermittent seed production by perennial plants). This suggests some kind of phase-locking of the reproductive cycles of individual plants to the climatological cycle, thus further reinforcing reproductive synchrony and the Moran effect. We propose a dendrochronological approach to filter out the long-term direct effects of climate on tree radial growth and temporal reproductive effort by sex by using actual trees as climatic controls to reconstruct masting events in Araucaria araucana, a long-lived dioecious masting conifer. In this way, we developed a multi-century-long tree masting reconstruction for South America using female-male radial growth determined by differences in timing and magnitude of the reproductive effort between sexes. We provide evidence for a regional synchronizing mechanism of masting which is drought induced by strong cold La Niña phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplified by the positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) that activate both female and male cone bud formation during year -2 before seed fall; that is, a long-term phase-locking between the ENSO cycle and the reproductive cycle modulated by the strength of SAM. In addition, our regional index of masting frequency showed its maximum during the late twentieth century relative to the previous centuries, suggesting that the species is currently at its maximum masting frequency concurrent with a period of enhanced temperature and drought conditions in Patagonia, probably driven by the positive phase of the SAM.

Avoiding rather than resisting herbivore attacks is often the first line of plant defence

A common idea is that resisting or blocking herbivore attacks by structural, chemical and molecular means after they have commenced is the first line of plant defence. However, these are all secondary defences, operating only when all the various methods of avoiding attack have failed. The real first line of plant defence from herbivory and herbivore-transmitted pathogens is avoiding such attacks altogether. Several visual, chemical and ‘statistical’ methods (and commonly their combined effects) have been proposed to allow avoidance of herbivore attacks. The visual types are camouflage, masquerade, aposematic coloration of toxic or physically defended plants (including Müllerian/Batesian mimicry), undermining herbivorous insect camouflage, delayed greening, dazzle and trickery coloration, heterophylly that undermines host identification, leaf movements, and signalling that colourful autumn leaves are soon to be shed. The mimicry types include: herbivore damage, insects and other animals, fungal infestation, dead/dry leaves or branches, animal droppings, and stones and soil. Olfactory-based tactics include odour aposematism by poisonous plants, various repelling volatiles, mimicry of faeces and carrion odours, and mimicry of aphid alarm pheromones. The ‘statistical’ methods are mast fruiting, flowering only once in many years and being rare. In addition to the theoretical aspects, understanding these mechanisms may have considerable potential for agricultural or forestry applications.

Environmental variation drives continental-scale synchrony of European beech reproduction

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance-decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation.

Terrestrial Ecology: Natural Selection for Mast Seeding

Mast seeding is a widespread reproductive phenomenon in plants, and testing evolutionary drivers is challenging. New research uses four decades of individual-tree reproduction data and demonstrates selection for hypersensitivity to a weather cue, high temporal variability, and high synchrony with neighbours.

Seeds and seedlings of oaks suffer from mammals and molluscs close to phylogenetically isolated, old adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Mammals and molluscs (MaM) are abundant herbivores of tree seeds and seedlings, but how the trees and their environment affect MaM herbivory has been little studied. MaM tend to move much larger distances during the feeding stage than the more frequently studied insect herbivores. We hypothesize that MaM (1) select and stay within the patches that promise to be relatively the richest in seeds and seedlings, i.e. patches around adult trees that are old and within a distantly related, less productive neighborhood; and (2) try to remain sheltered from predators while foraging, i.e. mammals remain close to adult trees or to cover by herbs while foraging, and might force their mollusc prey to show the opposite distribution.

METHODS

We exposed oak acorns and seedlings in a temperate forest along transects from adult conspecifics in different neighbourhoods. We followed acorn removal and leaf herbivory. We used exclusion experiments to separate acorn removal by ungulates vs. rodents and leaf herbivory by insects vs. molluscs. We measured the size of the closest conspecific adult tree, its phylogenetic isolation from the neighbourhood and the herbaceous ground cover.

KEY RESULTS

Consistent with our hypothesis, rodents removed seeds around adult trees surrounded by phylogenetically distant trees and by a dense herb cover. Molluscs grazed seedlings surrounding large conspecific adults and where herb cover is scarce. Contrary to our hypothesis, the impact of MaM did not change from 1 to 5 m distance from adult trees.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that foraging decisions of MaM repulse seedlings from old adults, and mediate the negative effects of herbaceous vegetation on tree recruitment. Also, an increase in mammalian seed predation might prevent trees from establishing in the niches of phylogenetically distantly related species, contrary to what is known from insect enemies.

Measuring temporal patterns in ecology: The case of mast seeding

Properly assessing temporal patterns is a central issue in ecology in order to understand ecosystem processes and their mechanisms. Mast seeding has traditionally been described as a reproductive behavior consisting of highly variable and synchronized reproductive events. The most common metric used to measure temporal variability and thus infer masting behavior, the coefficient of variation (CV), however, has been repeatedly suggested to improperly estimate temporal variability. Biases of CV estimates are especially problematic for non-normally distributed data and/or data sets with a high number of zeros.Some recent studies have already adopted new metrics to measure temporal variability, but most continue to use CV. This controversy has started a strong debate about what metrics to use.We here summarize the problems of CV when assessing temporal variability, particularly across data sets containing a large number of zeros, and highlight the benefits of using other metrics of temporal variability, such as proportional variability (PV) and consecutive disparity (D). We also suggest a new way to look at reproductive behavior, by separating temporal variability from frequency of reproduction, to allow better comparison of data sets with different characteristics.We suggest future studies to properly describe the temporal patterns in fully scientific and measurable terms that do not lead to confusion, such as variability and frequency of reproduction, using robust and fully comparable metrics.

How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study

Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body-mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.

Biogeography and phylogeny of masting: do global patterns fit functional hypotheses?

Interannual variability of seed crops (CVp) has profound consequences for plant populations and food webs, where high CVp is termed 'masting'. Here we ask: is global variation in CVp better predicted by plant or habitat differences consistent with adaptive economies of scale, in which flower and seed benefits increase disproportionately during mast years; or by passive mechanisms, in which seed production responds to variation in resource availability associated with climate variability? To address this question, we compiled a dataset for phylogenetic comparative analysis of long-term fruit/seed production for plants comprising 920 time series spanning 311 plant species. Factors associated with both adaptive benefits of CVp (wind pollination and seed dispersal) and climatic variability (variability of summer precipitation) were among the best predictors of global variation in CVp. We observed a hump-shaped relationship between CVp and latitude and intermediate phylogenetic and geographic signals in CVp. CVp is patterned nonrandomly across the globe and over the plant tree of life, where high CVp is associated with species benefiting from economies of scale of seed or flower production and with species that experience variable rainfall over summer months when seeds usually mature.

Large-scale genetic admixture suggests high dispersal in an insect pest, the apple fruit moth

Knowledge about population genetic structure and dispersal capabilities is important for the development of targeted management strategies for agricultural pest species. The apple fruit moth, Argyresthia conjugella (Lepidoptera, Yponomeutidae), is a pre-dispersal seed predator. Larvae feed on rowanberries (Sorbus aucuparia), and when rowanberry seed production is low (i.e., inter-masting), the moth switches from laying eggs in rowanberries to apples (Malus domestica), resulting in devastating losses in apple crops. Using genetic methods, we investigated if this small moth expresses any local genetic structure, or alternatively if gene flow may be high within the Scandinavian Peninsula (~850.000 km², 55^o - 69^o N). Genetic diversity was found to be high (n = 669, mean He = 0.71). For three out of ten tetranucleotide STRs, we detected heterozygote deficiency caused by null alleles, but tests showed little impact on the overall results. Genetic differentiation between the 28 sampling locations was very low (average FST = 0.016, P < 0.000). Surprisingly, we found that all individuals could be assigned to one of two non-geographic genetic clusters, and that a third, geographic cluster was found to be associated with 30% of the sampling locations, with weak but significant signals of isolation-by-distance. Conclusively, our findings suggest wind-aided dispersal and spatial synchrony of both sexes of the apple fruit moth over large areas and across very different climatic zones. We speculate that the species may recently have had two separate genetic origins caused by a genetic bottleneck after inter-masting, followed by rapid dispersal and homogenization of the gene pool across the landscape. We suggest further investigations of spatial genetic similarities and differences of the apple fruit moth at larger geographical scales, through life-stages, across inter-masting, and during attacks by the parasitoid wasp (Microgaster politus).

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.

Physiological, Behavioral, and Life-History Adaptations to Environmental Fluctuations in the Edible Dormouse

The edible dormouse (Glis glis, formerly Myoxus glis) is a small arboreal mammal inhabiting deciduous forests in Europe. This rodent shows behavioral and physiological adaptations to three types of environmental fluctuations: (i) predictable seasonal variation in climate and food resources (ii) unpredictable year-to-year fluctuation in seed-production by trees and (iii) day-to-day variation in ambient temperature and precipitation. They cope with seasonally fluctuating conditions by seasonal fattening and hibernation. Dormice have adjusted to tree-mast fluctuations, i.e., pulsed resources, by sensing future seed availability in spring, and restricting reproduction to years with at least some seed production by beech and oak trees, which are a crucial food-resource for fast-growing juveniles in fall. Finally, dormice respond to short-term drops in ambient temperature by increased use of daily torpor as well as by huddling in groups of up to 24 conspecifics. These responses to environmental fluctuations strongly interact with each other: Dormice are much more prone to using daily torpor and huddling in non-reproductive years, because active gonads can counteract torpor and energy requirements for reproduction may prevent the sharing of food resources associated with huddling. Accordingly, foraging activity in fall is much more intense in reproductive mast years. Also, depending on their energy reserves, dormice may retreat to underground burrows in the summers of non-reproductive years, causing an extension of the hibernation season to up to 11.4 months. In addition to these interactions, responses to environmental fluctuations are modulated by the progression of life-history stages. With increasing age and diminishing chances of future reproduction, females reproduce with increasing frequency even under suboptimal environmental conditions. Simultaneously, older dormice shorten the hibernation season and phase-advance the emergence from hibernation in spring, apparently to occupy good breeding territories early, despite increased predation risk above ground. All of the above adaptions, i.e., huddling, torpor, hibernation, and reproduction skipping do not merely optimize energy-budgets but also help to balance individual predation risk against reproductive success, which adds another layer of complexity to the ability to make flexible adjustments in this species.

Mast seeding patterns are asynchronous at a continental scale

Resource pulses are rare events with a short duration and high magnitude that drive the dynamics of both plant and animal populations and communities¹. Mast seeding is perhaps the most common type of resource pulse that occurs in terrestrial ecosystems², is characterized by the synchronous and highly variable production of seed crops by a population of perennial plants^3,4, is widespread both taxonomically and geographically⁵, and is often associated with nutrient scarcity⁶. The rare production of abundant seed crops (mast events) that are orders of magnitude greater than crops during low seed years leads to high reproductive success in seed consumers and has cascading impacts in ecosystems^2,7. Although it has been suggested that mast seeding is potentially synchronized at continental scales⁸, studies are largely constrained to local areas covering tens to hundreds of kilometres. Furthermore, summer temperature, which acts as a cue for mast seeding⁹, shows patterns at continental scales manifested as a juxtaposition of positive and negative anomalies that have been linked to irruptive movements of boreal seed-eating birds^10,11. Here, we show a breakdown in synchrony of mast seeding patterns across space, leading to asynchrony at the continental scale. In an analysis of synchrony for a transcontinental North America tree species spanning distances of greater than 5,200 km, we found that mast seeding patterns were significantly asynchronous at distances of greater than 2,000 km apart (all P < 0.05). Other studies have shown declines in synchrony across distance, but not asynchrony. Spatiotemporal variation in summer temperatures at the continental scale drives patterns of synchrony in mast seeding, and we anticipate that this affects the spatial dynamics of numerous seed-eating communities, from insects to small mammals to the large-scale migration patterns of boreal seed-eating birds.

Forecasting the seasonal pollen index by using a hidden Markov model combining meteorological and biological factors

The seasonal pollen index (SPI) is a continuing concern within the fields of aerobiology, ecology, botany, and epidemiology. The SPI of anemophilous trees, which varies substantially from year to year, reflects the flowering intensity. This intensity is regulated by two factors: weather conditions during flower formation and the inner resource for assimilation. A deterministic approach has to date been employed for predicting SPI, in which the forecast is made entirely by parameters. However, given the complexity of the masting mechanism (which has intrinsic stochastic properties), few attempts have been made to apply a stochastic model that considers the inter-annual SPI variation as a stochastic process. We propose a hidden Markov model that can integrate the stochastic process of mast flowering and the meteorological conditions influencing flower formation to predict the annual birch pollen concentration. In experiments conducted, the model was trained and validated by using data in Hokkaido, Japan covering 22 years. In the model, the hidden Markov sequence was assigned to represent the recurrence of mast years via a transition matrix, and the observation sequences were designated as meteorological conditions in the previous summer, which are governed by hidden states with emission distribution. The proposed model achieved accuracies of 83.3% in the training period and 75.0% in the test period. Thus, the proposed model can provide an alternative perspective toward the SPI forecast and probabilistic information of pollen levels as a useful reference for allergy stakeholders.

Living near the limits: Effects of interannual variation in food availability on diet and reproduction in a temperate primate, the Taihangshan macaque (Macaca mulatta tcheliensis)

Nutrient intake of animals is influenced by an interplay of external and internal factors, such as food availability and reproductive state, respectively. We used the nutritional geometry framework to analyze individual-based data on energy and nutrient intake in relation to reproductive state in a population of rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta tcheliensis), which live in a harsh high-latitude habitat, the Taihangshan mountains of China, and exhibit strong reproductive seasonality. We combined data over a 3-year period on food availability, diets, reproductive output, and components of maternal investment to understand how Taihangshan macaques respond to variation in food availability and nutrition in reproduction. Our results show there was high interannual variation in availability of an important staple source of fat and carbohydrates (nonprotein energy), seeds of oak (Quercus spp). Despite this variability in seed availability skewing the dietary macronutrient ratios considerably (from 12.96% to 30.12% dietary energy from protein), total metabolizable energy intake was maintained across years during pregnancy. Lactating females had higher mean daily energy intakes than pregnant females. As in pregnant females, energy intake was maintained constant across years, but only when seed availability enabled the contribution of available protein to energy intake to be maintained between 15.32% (2013) and 17.97% (2015). In 2014, when seeds were scarce, lactating females had a shortfall in energy intake compared with 2013 and 2015. This corresponded with a reduction in the number of females giving birth (11 out of 23), but there was no interannual difference in survival rates. Compared to 2013 and 2015, in 2014 females had greater weight loss (drew on body reserves), moved less, and spent more time nursing their offspring. We discuss implications of these results for range limitation in Taihangshan macaques.

Nutrient scarcity as a selective pressure for mast seeding

Mast seeding is one of the most intriguing reproductive traits in nature. Despite its potential drawbacks in terms of fitness, the widespread existence of this phenomenon suggests that it should have evolutionary advantages under certain circumstances. Using a global dataset of seed production time series for 219 plant species from all of the continents, we tested whether masting behaviour appears predominantly in species with low foliar nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations when controlling for local climate and productivity. Here, we show that masting intensity is higher in species with low foliar N and P concentrations, and especially in those with imbalanced N/P ratios, and that the evolutionary history of masting behaviour has been linked to that of nutrient economy. Our results support the hypothesis that masting is stronger in species growing under limiting conditions and suggest that this reproductive behaviour might have evolved as an adaptation to nutrient limitations and imbalances.