Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

Within-population plastic responses to combined thermal-nutritional stress differ from those in response to single stressors, and are genetically independent across traits in both males and females

Phenotypic plasticity helps animals to buffer the effects of increasing thermal and nutritional stress created by climate change. Plastic responses to single and combined stressors can vary among genetically diverged populations. However, less is known about how plasticity in response to combined stress varies among individuals within a population or whether such variation changes across life-history traits. This is important because individual variation within populations shapes population-level responses to environmental change. Here, we used isogenic lines of Drosophila melanogaster to assess the plasticity of egg-to-adult viability and sex-specific body size for combinations of 2 temperatures (25 °C or 28 °C) and 3 diets (standard diet, low caloric diet, or low protein:carbohydrate ratio diet). Our results reveal substantial within-population genetic variation in plasticity for egg-to-adult viability and wing size in response to combined thermal-nutritional stress. This genetic variation in plasticity was a result of cross-environment genetic correlations that were often < 1 for both traits, as well as changes in the expression of genetic variation across environments for egg-to-adult viability. Cross-sex genetic correlations for body size were weaker when the sexes were reared in different conditions, suggesting that the genetic basis of traits may change with the environment. Furthermore, our results suggest that plasticity in egg-to-adult viability is genetically independent from plasticity in body size. Importantly, plasticity in response to diet and temperature individually differed from plastic shifts in response to diet and temperature in combination. By quantifying plasticity and the expression of genetic variance in response to combined stress across traits, our study reveals the complexity of animal responses to environmental change, and the need for a more nuanced understanding of the potential for populations to adapt to ongoing climate change.

Adaptation of a quantitative trait to a changing environment: New analytical insights on the asexual and infinitesimal sexual models

Predicting the adaptation of populations to a changing environment is crucial to assess the impact of human activities on biodiversity. Many theoretical studies have tackled this issue by modeling the evolution of quantitative traits subject to stabilizing selection around an optimal phenotype, whose value is shifted continuously through time. In this context, the population fate results from the equilibrium distribution of the trait, relative to the moving optimum. Such a distribution may vary with the shape of selection, the system of reproduction, the number of loci, the mutation kernel or their interactions. Here, we develop a methodology that provides quantitative measures of population maladaptation and potential of survival directly from the entire profile of the phenotypic distribution, without any a priori on its shape. We investigate two different systems of reproduction (asexual and infinitesimal sexual models of inheritance), with various forms of selection. In particular, we recover that fitness functions such that selection weakens away from the optimum lead to evolutionary tipping points, with an abrupt collapse of the population when the speed of environmental change is too high. Our unified framework allows deciphering the mechanisms that lead to this phenomenon. More generally, it allows discussing similarities and discrepancies between the two systems of reproduction, which are ultimately explained by different constraints on the evolution of the phenotypic variance. We demonstrate that the mean fitness in the population crucially depends on the shape of the selection function in the infinitesimal sexual model, in contrast with the asexual model. In the asexual model, we also investigate the effect of the mutation kernel and we show that kernels with higher kurtosis tend to reduce maladaptation and improve fitness, especially in fast changing environments.

A Smart Camera Trap for Detection of Endotherms and Ectotherms

Current camera traps use passive infrared triggers; therefore, they only capture images when animals have a substantially different surface body temperature than the background. Endothermic animals, such as mammals and birds, provide adequate temperature contrast to trigger cameras, while ectothermic animals, such as amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates, do not. Therefore, a camera trap that is capable of monitoring ectotherms can expand the capacity of ecological research on ectothermic animals. This study presents the design, development, and evaluation of a solar-powered and artificial-intelligence-assisted camera trap system with the ability to monitor both endothermic and ectothermic animals. The system is developed using a central processing unit, integrated graphics processing unit, camera, infrared light, flash drive, printed circuit board, solar panel, battery, microphone, GPS receiver, temperature/humidity sensor, light sensor, and other customized circuitry. It continuously monitors image frames using a motion detection algorithm and commences recording when a moving animal is detected during the day or night. Field trials demonstrate that this system successfully recorded a high number of animals. Lab testing using artificially generated motion demonstrated that the system successfully recorded within video frames at a high accuracy of 0.99, providing an optimized peak power consumption of 5.208 W. No water or dust entered the cases during field trials. A total of 27 cameras saved 85,870 video segments during field trials, of which 423 video segments successfully recorded ectothermic animals (reptiles, amphibians, and arthropods). This newly developed camera trap will benefit wildlife biologists, as it successfully monitors both endothermic and ectothermic animals.

Heritable responses to combined effects of heat stress and ivermectin in the yellow dung fly

In current times of global change, several sources of stress such as contaminants and high temperatures may act synergistically. The extent to which organisms persist in stressful conditions will depend on the fitness consequences of multiple simultaneously acting stressors and the genetic basis of compensatory genetic responses. Ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug used in livestock that is excreted in dung of treated cattle, causing severe negative consequences on non-target fauna. We evaluated the effect of a combination of heat stress and exposure to ivermectin in the yellow dung fly, Scathophaga stercoraria (Diptera: Scathophagidae). In a first experiment we investigated the effects of high rearing temperature on susceptibility to ivermectin, and in a second experiment we assayed flies from a latitudinal gradient to assess potential effects of local thermal adaptation on ivermectin sensitivity. The combination of heat and ivermectin synergistically reduced offspring survival, revealing severe effects of the two stressors when combined. However, latitudinal populations did not systematically vary in how ivermectin affected offspring survival, body size, development time, cold and heat tolerance. We also found very low narrow-sense heritability of ivermectin sensitivity, suggesting evolutionary constraints for responses to the combination of these stressors beyond immediate maternal or plastic effects. If the revealed patterns hold also for other invertebrates, the combination of increasing climate warming and ivermectin stress may thus have severe consequences for biodiversity. More generally, our study underlines the need for quantitative genetic analyses in understanding wildlife responses to interacting stressors that act synergistically and threat biodiversity.

Transcriptomic response of the intertidal limpet Patella vulgata to temperature extremes

Global warming is challenging wild species in land and water. In the intertidal zone, species are already living at their thermal limits, being vulnerable even to small increases in maximum habitat temperatures. Knowledge of the mechanisms by which many intertidal zone species cope with elevated temperatures is limited. We analysed the molecular thermal stress response of the limpet Patella vulgata under slight and frequent (one-day), and extreme and rare (three-day) warming events. Using RNA-seq to assess differential gene expression among treatments, differing molecular responses were obtained in the two treatments, with more changes in gene expression after the three-day event; with one-third of the differentially expressed transcripts being down-regulated. However, across treatments we observed shifts in gene expression for common aspects of the heat stress response including intra-cellular communication, protein chaperoning, proteolysis and cell cycle arrest. Of the 71,675 transcripts obtained, only 259 were differentially expressed after both heating events. From these, 218 defined the core group (i.e. genes induced by thermal stress with similar expression patterns irrespective of the magnitude of the warming event). The core group was composed of already well-studied genes in heat stress responses in intertidal organisms (e.g. heat shock proteins), but also genes from less explored metabolic pathways, e.g. the ubiquitin system, which were also fundamental regardless of the magnitude of the imposed warming. Moreover, we have also identified 41 signaling genes (i.e. a set of genes responding to both events and with expression patterns specific to the intensity of thermal stress), principally including genes involved in the maintenance of extracellular structure that have previously not been identified as part of the response to thermal stress in intertidal zone organisms. These signaling genes will be useful heat stress molecular biomarkers for monitoring heat stress in natural populations.

Climate sensitivity across latitude: scaling physiology to communities

While we know climate change will impact individuals, populations, and communities, we lack a cross-scale synthesis for understanding global variation in climate change impacts and predicting their ecological effects. Studies of latitudinal variation in individuals' thermal responses have developed primarily in isolation from studies of natural populations' warming responses. Further, it is unclear whether latitudinal variation in temperature-dependent population responses will manifest into latitudinal patterns in community stability. Integrating across scales, we discuss the key drivers of latitudinal variation in climate change effects, with the goal of identifying key pieces of information necessary to predict warming effects in natural communities. We propose two experimental approaches synthesizing latitudinal variability in climate change impacts across scales of biological organization.

Updating salamander datasets with phenotypic and stomach content information for two mainland Speleomantes

European plethodontid salamanders (genus Speleomantes; formerly Hydromantes) are a group of eight strictly protected amphibian species which are sensitive to human-induced environmental changes. Long-term monitoring is highly recommended to evaluate their status and to assess potential threats. Here we used two low-impact methodologies to build up a large dataset on two mainland Speleomantes species (S. strinatii and S. ambrosii), which represents an update to two previously published datasets, but also includes several new populations. Specifically, we provide a set of 851 high quality images and a table gathering stomach contents recognized from 560 salamanders. This dataset offers the opportunity to analyse phenotypic traits and stomach contents of eight populations belonging to two Speleomantes species. Furthermore, the data collection performed over different periods allows to expand the potential analyses through a wide temporal scale, allowing long-term studies.

Measurement(s)	Gastric Content • Image
Technology Type(s)	light microscopy • Digital Photography
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Speleomantes • Hydromantes
Sample Characteristic - Environment	Subterranean • karst cave • mine
Sample Characteristic - Location	Italy • Region of Liguria • Municipality of Genova • Province of La Spezia

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.14346176

Elevated temperature increases genome-wide selection on de novo mutations

Adaptation in new environments depends on the amount of genetic variation available for evolution, and the efficacy by which natural selection discriminates among this variation. However, whether some ecological factors reveal more genetic variation, or impose stronger selection pressures than others, is typically not known. Here, we apply the enzyme kinetic theory to show that rising global temperatures are predicted to intensify natural selection throughout the genome by increasing the effects of DNA sequence variation on protein stability. We test this prediction by (i) estimating temperature-dependent fitness effects of induced mutations in seed beetles adapted to ancestral or elevated temperature, and (ii) calculate 100 paired selection estimates on mutations in benign versus stressful environments from unicellular and multicellular organisms. Environmental stress per se did not increase mean selection on de novo mutation, suggesting that the cost of adaptation does not generally increase in new ecological settings to which the organism is maladapted. However, elevated temperature increased the mean strength of selection on genome-wide polymorphism, signified by increases in both mutation load and mutational variance in fitness. These results have important implications for genetic diversity gradients and the rate and repeatability of evolution under climate change.

Natural selection mediated by seasonal time constraints increases the alignment between evolvability and developmental plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity can either hinder or promote adaptation to novel environments. Recent studies that have quantified alignments between plasticity, genetic variation, and divergence propose that such alignments may reflect constraints that bias future evolutionary trajectories. Here, we emphasize that such alignments may themselves be a result of natural selection and do not necessarily indicate constraints on adaptation. We estimated developmental plasticity and broad sense genetic covariance matrices (G) among damselfly populations situated along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. Damselflies were reared at photoperiod treatments that simulated the seasonal time constraints experienced at northern (strong constraints) and southern (relaxed constraints) latitudes. This allowed us to partition the effects of (1) latitude, (2) photoperiod, and (3) environmental novelty on G and its putative alignment with adaptive plasticity and divergence. Environmental novelty and latitude did not affect G, but photoperiod did. Photoperiod increased evolvability in the direction of observed adaptive divergence and developmental plasticity when G was assessed under strong seasonal time constraints at northern (relative to southern) photoperiod. Because selection and adaptation under time constraints is well understood in Lestes damselflies, our results suggest that natural selection can shape the alignment between divergence, plasticity, and evolvability.

Genetic Constraints, Transcriptome Plasticity, and the Evolutionary Response to Climate Change

In situ adaptation to climate change will be critical for the persistence of many ectotherm species due to their relative lack of dispersal capacity. Climate change is causing increases in both the mean and the variance of environmental temperature, each of which may act as agents of selection on different traits. Importantly, these traits may not be heritable or have the capacity to evolve independently from one another. When genetic constraints prevent the "baseline" values of thermal performance traits from evolving rapidly, phenotypic plasticity driven by gene expression might become critical. We review the literature for evidence that thermal performance traits in ectotherms are heritable and have genetic architectures that permit their unconstrained evolution. Next, we examine the relationship between gene expression and both the magnitude and duration of thermal stress. Finally, we identify genes that are likely to be important for adaptation to a changing climate and determine whether they show patterns consistent with thermal adaptation. Although few studies have measured narrow-sense heritabilities of thermal performance traits, current evidence suggests that the end points of thermal reaction norms (tolerance limits) are moderately heritable and have the potential to evolve rapidly. By contrast, performance at intermediate temperatures has substantially lower evolutionary potential. Moreover, evolution in many species appears to be constrained by genetic correlations such that populations can adapt to either increases in mean temperature or temperature variability, but not both. Finally, many species have the capacity for plastic expression of the transcriptome in response to temperature shifts, with the number of differentially expressed genes increasing with the magnitude, but not the duration, of thermal stress. We use these observations to develop a conceptual model that describes the likely trajectory of genome evolution in response to changes in environmental temperature. Our results indicate that extreme weather events, rather than gradual increases in mean temperature, are more likely to drive genetic and phenotypic change in wild ectotherms.

Differential effects of the urban heat island on thermal responses of freshwater fishes from unmanaged and managed systems

A lack of understanding exists regarding how freshwater species will respond to increases in temperature associated with ongoing changes in climate. Non-urban to urban thermal gradients generated by urban heat islands can serve as models to characterize the effects of relatively consistent increases in temperature on freshwater ecosystems over several decades. This study investigates the apparent responses of two freshwater fish species, Campostoma anomalum (Central Stoneroller) and Lepomis macrochirus (Bluegill), to directional changes in temperature over the past century across the non-urban to urban gradient in the Saint Louis, Missouri region in the central United States. Differences in air temperature across this gradient have increased by approximately 3 °C since 1920. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax) assays were conducted on individuals from fish populations across this gradient from either streams (C. anomalum) or ponds (L. macrochirus) to assess whether thermal tolerance is associated with water temperature among sites. According to expectations based on the effect of an urban heat island, maximum water temperature at stream sites was positively correlated with percent urban landcover around the sites. Moreover, CTMax among populations of C. anomalum was positively correlated with maximum water temperature at each site, suggesting that this species has likely responded to increases in temperature over the past several decades. There was no relationship between percent urban landcover and maximum water temperature in the pond systems. There was also no relationship between CTMax and maximum water temperature among L. macrochirus populations. The pond systems and populations of L. macrochirus are highly managed, which may limit local physical and biological responses to increases in air temperature. Results suggest that freshwater habitats in urban environments and the species inhabiting these areas are responding differently to recent increases in air temperature, highlighting the complexity of the physical and biological components of these systems.

Evolution is a double-edged sword, not a silver bullet, to confront global change

Although there is considerable optimism surrounding adaptive evolutionary responses to global change, relatively little attention has been paid to maladaptation in this context. In this review, we consider how global change might lead populations to become maladapted. We further consider how populations can evolve to new optima, fail to evolve and therefore remain maladapted, or become further maladapted through trait-driven or eco-evo-driven mechanisms after being displaced from their fitness optima. Our goal is to stimulate thinking about evolution as a "double-edged sword" that comprises both adaptive and maladaptive responses, rather than as a "silver bullet" or a purely adaptive mechanism to combat global change. We conclude by discussing how a better appreciation of environmentally driven maladaptation and maladaptive responses might improve our current understanding of population responses to global change and our ability to forecast future responses.

Sexual selection, environmental robustness, and evolutionary demography of maladapted populations: A test using experimental evolution in seed beetles

Whether sexual selection impedes or aids adaptation has become an outstanding question in times of rapid environmental change and parallels the debate about how the evolution of individual traits impacts on population dynamics. The net effect of sexual selection on population viability results from a balance between genetic benefits of "good-genes" effects and costs of sexual conflict. Depending on how these facets of sexual selection are affected under environmental change, extinction of maladapted populations could be either avoided or accelerated. Here, we evolved seed beetles under three alternative mating regimes to disentangle the contributions of sexual selection, fecundity selection, and male-female coevolution to individual reproductive success and population fitness. We compared these contributions between the ancestral environment and two stressful environments (elevated temperature and a host plant shift). We found evidence that sexual selection on males had positive genetic effects on female fitness components across environments, supporting good-genes sexual selection. Interestingly, however, when males evolved under sexual selection with fecundity selection removed, they became more robust to both temperature and host plant stress compared to their conspecific females and males from the other evolution regimes that applied fecundity selection. We quantified the population-level consequences of this sex-specific adaptation and found evidence that the cost of sociosexual interactions in terms of reduced offspring production was higher in the regime applying only sexual selection to males. Moreover, the cost tended to be more pronounced at the elevated temperature to which males from the regime were more robust compared to their conspecific females. These results illustrate the tension between individual-level adaptation and population-level viability in sexually reproducing species and suggest that the relative efficacies of sexual selection and fecundity selection can cause inherent sex differences in environmental robustness that may impact demography of maladapted populations.

Implications of existing local (mal)adaptations for ecological forecasting under environmental change

Standing genetic variation represents a genetic load on population fitness but can also support a rapid response to short-term environmental change, and the greatest potential source of such standing genetic variation typically exists among locally adapted populations living along an environmental gradient. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to quantify the contribution of existing genetic variation arising from migration-mutation-selection-drift balance to time to extinction under environmental change. Simulations reveal that local adaptation across a species range associated with an underlying environmental gradient could extend time to extinction by nearly threefold irrespective of the rate of environmental change. The potential for preadapted alleles to increase the rate of adaptation changes the relative importance of established extinction risk factors; in particular, it reduced the importance of the breadth of environmental tolerance and it increased the relative importance of fecundity. Although migration of preadapted alleles generally increased persistence time, it decreased it at rates of environmental change close to the critical rate of change by creating a population bottleneck, which ultimately limited the rate at which de novo mutations could arise. An analysis of the extinction dynamics further revealed that one consequence of gene flow is the potential to maximize population growth rate in at least part of the species range, which is likely to have consequences for forecasting the consequences of ecological interactions. Our study shows that predictions of persistence time change fundamentally when existing local adaptations are explicitly taken into account, underscoring the need to preserve and manage genetic diversity.

Trait variation in extreme thermal environments under constant and fluctuating temperatures

Climate change is increasingly exposing populations to rare and novel environmental conditions. Theory suggests that extreme conditions will expose cryptic phenotypes, with a concomitant increase in trait variation. Although some empirical support for this exists, it is also well established that physiological mechanisms (e.g. heat shock protein expression) change when organisms are exposed to constant versus fluctuating temperatures. To determine the effect of common, rare and novel temperatures on the release of hidden variation, we exposed fathead minnows, Pimephales promelas, to five fluctuating and four constant temperature regimes (constant treatments: 23.5, 25, 28.5 and 31°C; all fluctuating treatments shared a minimum temperature of 22°C at 00.00 and a maximum of 25, 28, 31, 34 or 37°C at 12.00). We measured each individual's length weekly over 60 days, critical thermal maximum (CTmax), five morphometric traits (eye anterior-posterior distance, pelvic fin length, pectoral fin length, pelvic fin ray count and pectoral fin ray count) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA, absolute difference between left and right morphometric measurements; FA is typically associated with stress). Length-at-age in both constant and fluctuating conditions decreased with temperature, and this trait's variance decreased with temperature under fluctuating conditions but increased and then decreased in constant temperatures. CTmax in both treatments increased with increasing water temperature, while its variance decreased in warmer waters. No consistent pattern in mean or variance was found across morphometric traits or FA. Our results suggest that, for fathead minnows, variance can decrease in important traits (e.g. length-at-age and CTmax) as the environment becomes more stressful, so it may be difficult to establish comprehensive rules for the effects of rarer or stressful environments on trait variation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Considering the effects of temperature × nutrient interactions on the thermal response curve of carrying capacity

Climate warming will likely destabilize populations or drive consumers locally extinct. These predictions arise from consumer-resource models incorporating temperature-dependent parameters, and the accuracy of these predictions hinges on the validity of temperature scalings for each parameter. Among all parameters, carrying capacity (K) is the most ill-defined and the temperature scaling of this parameter has no empirically verified foundation. Most studies assume that K declines exponentially with warming, but others have assumed a positive or no relationship between K and temperature. Here, I developed a theoretical foundation for a temperature scaling of K based on physiological principles of temperature and nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. The trade-off between thermodynamics and nutrient uptake yields a unimodal thermal response curve for K, and this prediction is supported by empirical data on both phytoplankton and insects. Analyses of consumer-resource models demonstrate the primacy of K in determining predictions of coexistence and stability. Since K exerts a dominant influence on model predictions, ecologists should carefully consider the temperature scaling of K for the species and region in question to ensure accurate estimates of population stability and extinction risk.

Heat-resistant cytosolic malate dehydrogenases (cMDHs) of thermophilic intertidal snails (genus Echinolittorina): protein underpinnings of tolerance to body temperatures reaching 55°C

Snails of the genus Echinolittorina are among the most heat-tolerant animals; they experience average body temperatures near 41-44°C in summer and withstand temperatures up to at least 55°C. Here, we demonstrate that heat stability of function (indexed by the Michaelis-Menten constant of the cofactor NADH, K_M^NADH) and structure (indexed by rate of denaturation) of cytosolic malate dehydrogenases (cMDHs) of two congeners (E. malaccana and E. radiata) exceeds values previously found for orthologs of this protein from less thermophilic species. The ortholog of E. malaccana is more heat stable than that of E. radiata, in keeping with the congeners' thermal environments. Only two inter-congener differences in amino acid sequence in these 332 residue proteins were identified. In both cases (positions 48 and 114), a glycine in the E. malaccana ortholog is replaced by a serine in the E. radiata protein. To explore the relationship between structure and function and to characterize how amino acid substitutions alter stability of different regions of the enzyme, we used molecular dynamics simulation methods. These computational methods allow determination of thermal effects on fine-scale movements of protein components, for example, by estimating the root mean square deviation in atom position over time and the root mean square fluctuation for individual residues. The minor changes in amino acid sequence favor temperature-adaptive change in flexibility of regions in and around the active sites. Interspecific differences in effects of temperature on fine-scale protein movements are consistent with the differences in thermal effects on binding and rates of heat denaturation.

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

Populations can persist in directionally changing environments by evolving. Quantitative genetic theory aims to predict critical rates of environmental change beyond which populations go extinct. Here, we point out that all current predictions effectively assume the same specific fitness function. This function causes selection on the standing genetic variance of quantitative traits to become increasingly strong as mean trait values depart from their optima. Hence, there is no bound on the rate of evolution and persistence is determined by the critical rate of environmental change at which populations cease to grow. We then show that biologically reasonable changes to the underlying fitness function can impose a qualitatively different extinction threshold. In particular, inflection points caused by weakening selection create local extrema in the strength of selection and thus in the rate of evolution. These extrema can produce evolutionary tipping points, where long-run population growth rates drop from positive to negative values without ever crossing zero. Generic early-warning signs of tipping points are found to have little power to detect imminent extinction, and require hard-to-gather data. Furthermore, we show how evolutionary tipping points produce evolutionary hysteresis, creating extinction debts.

Maximum thermal tolerance trades off with chronic tolerance of high temperature in contrasting thermal populations of Radix balthica

Thermal adaptation theory predicts that thermal specialists evolve in environments with low temporal and high spatial thermal variation, whereas thermal generalists are favored in environments with high temporal and low spatial variation. The thermal environment of many organisms is predicted to change with globally increasing temperatures and thermal specialists are presumably at higher risk than thermal generalists. Here we investigated critical thermal maximum (CT max) and preferred temperature (Tp) in populations of the common pond snail (Radix balthica) originating from a small-scale system of geothermal springs in northern Iceland, where stable cold (ca. 7°C) and warm (ca. 23°C) habitats are connected with habitats following the seasonal thermal variation. Irrespective of thermal origin, we found a common Tp for all populations, corresponding to the common temperature optimum (Topt) for fitness-related traits in these populations. Warm-origin snails had lowest CT max. As our previous studies have found higher chronic temperature tolerance in the warm populations, we suggest that there is a trade-off between high temperature tolerance and performance in other fitness components, including tolerance to chronic thermal stress. Tp and CT max were positively correlated in warm-origin snails, suggesting a need to maintain a minimum "warming tolerance" (difference in CT max and habitat temperature) in warm environments. Our results highlight the importance of high mean temperature in shaping thermal performance curves.

The interplay between plasticity and evolution in response to human-induced environmental change

Some populations will cope with human-induced environmental change, and others will undergo extirpation; understanding the mechanisms that underlie these responses is key to forecasting responses to environmental change. In cases where organisms cannot disperse to track suitable habitats, plastic and evolved responses to environmental change will determine whether populations persist or perish. However, the majority of studies consider plasticity and evolution in isolation when in fact plasticity can shape evolution and plasticity itself can evolve. In particular, whether cryptic genetic variation exposed by environmental novelty can facilitate adaptive evolution has been a source of controversy and debate in the literature and has received even less attention in the context of human-induced environmental change. However, given that many studies indicate organisms will be unable to keep pace with environmental change, we need to understand how often and the degree to which plasticity can facilitate adaptive evolutionary change under novel environmental conditions.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to non-acclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

Critical thermal limits of Poecilia caucana (Steindachner, 1880) (Cyprinodontiformes: Poeciliidae)

Abstract Although temperature has far-reaching effects on fish biology, the thermal tolerance ranges of most freshwater fish species are unknown. This lack of information precludes forecasting responses to climatic change and does not allow for comparative analyses that may inform evolutionary and biogeographic studies. We used the critical thermal methodology to quantify acclimation capacity and thermal tolerance in the Neotropical freshwater species Poecilia caucana . For fish acclimated to 20˚C, 25ºC, and 28ºC, critical thermal minima (CTmin) were 12.52 ± 0.62ºC, 13.41 ± 0.56ºC and 14.24 ± 0.43ºC respectively, and critical thermal maxima (CTmax) were 38.43 ± 0.64ºC, 40.28 ± 0.92ºC and 41.57 ± 0.27ºC, respectively. Both CTmin and CTmax changed with acclimation temperatures, indicating that P. caucana was effectively acclimatable. Relative to values reported for other freshwater fish species, the acclimation capacity of P. caucana for CTmin was low, but it was average for CTmax. The data, together with similar work in other species, can be used in analyses focusing on broad ecological and evolutionary questions.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Shared and unique responses of insects to the interaction of urbanization and background climate

Urbanization profoundly alters biological systems; yet the predictability of responses to urbanization based on key biological traits, the repeatability of these patterns among cities, and how the impact of urbanization on biological systems varies as a function of background climatic conditions remain unknown. We use insects as a focal system to review the major patterns of responses to urbanization, and develop a framework for exploring the shared and unique features that characterize insect responses to urbanization and how responses to urbanization might systematically vary along background environmental gradients in climate. We then illustrate this framework using established patterns in insect macrophysiology.

Heat tolerance in Drosophila subobscura along a latitudinal gradient: Contrasting patterns between plastic and genetic responses

Susceptibility to global warming relies on how thermal tolerances respond to increasing temperatures through plasticity or evolution. Climatic adaptation can be assessed by examining the geographic variation in thermal-related traits. We studied latitudinal patterns in heat tolerance in Drosophila subobscura reared at two temperatures. We used four static stressful temperatures to estimate the thermal death time (TDT) curves, and two ramping assays with fast and slow heating rates. Thermal death time curves allow estimation of the critical thermal maximum (CT(max)), by extrapolating to the temperature that would knock down the flies almost "instantaneously," and the thermal sensitivity to increasing stressful temperatures. We found a positive latitudinal cline for CT(max), but no clinal pattern for knockdown temperatures estimated from the ramping assays. Although high-latitude populations were more tolerant to an acute heat stress, they were also more sensitive to prolonged exposure to less stressful temperatures, supporting a trade-off between acute and chronic heat tolerances. Conversely, developmental plasticity did not affect CT(max) but increased the tolerance to chronic heat exposition. The patterns observed from the TDT curves help to understand why the relationship between heat tolerance and latitude depends on the methodology used and, therefore, these curves provide a more complete and reliable measurement of heat tolerance.

Variation in the thermal ecology of an endemic iguana from Mexico reduces its vulnerability to global warming

The persistence of reptile populations in a specific location is influenced by individuals' capacity to regulate their body temperatures, among other factors. Anthropogenic climate change may pose a risk to the survival of ectothermic animals due to their dependence on external heat sources to thermoregulate. In this study, we calculated indices of thermal habitat quality, thermoregulatory precision, and thermoregulatory effectiveness for the endemic spiny-tailed iguana Ctenosaura oaxacana. We evaluated these indices and the thermoregulatory behavior of the iguanas in the four types of vegetation that provide the most favorable conditions for thermoregulation. We also performed our experiments during both the wet and dry seasons to capture the full range of thermal conditions available to C. oaxacana over the course of a year. Finally, we evaluated the potential niche for the iguana in the years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Thermoregulation depends on both seasonal and environmental factors in this species. We found that thermoregulation effectiveness in both wet and dry seasons depends not only on the thermal conditions of the immediate environment, but also on the cover vegetation and habitat structure available across the range of habitats the species uses. Thus, heterogeneous habitats with dispersed vegetation may be most suitable for this species' thermoregulatory strategy. Likewise, niche modeling results suggested that suitable habitat for our study species may continue to be available for the next few decades, despite global warming tendencies, as long as cover vegetation remains unaltered. Our results suggest that thermoregulation is a complex process that cannot be generalized for all ectothermic species inhabiting a given region. We also found that temperature changes are not the only factor one must consider when estimating the risk of species loss. To understand the necessary thermal conditions and extinction risk for any ectothermic species, it is necessary to focus studies on the species' general ecology.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

De novo transcriptome sequencing of the snail Echinolittorina malaccana: identification of genes responsive to thermal stress and development of genetic markers for population studies

Echinolittorina snails inhabit the upper intertidal rocky shore and face strong selection pressures from thermal extremes and fluctuations. Revealing the molecular processes of adaptive significance is greatly obstructed by the scarcity of genomic resource for these taxa. Here, we reported the first comprehensive transcriptome dataset for the genus Echinolittorina. Using Illumina HiSeq 2000 platform, about 52 M and 54 M paired-end clean reads were, respectively, generated for the control and heat-stressed libraries. Totally, 115,211 unique transcript fragments (unigenes) were assembled, with an average length of 453 bp and a N50 size of 492 bp. Approximately one third of the unigenes could be annotated according to their homology matches against the Nr, Swiss-Prot, COG, or KEGG databases, and they were found to represent 23,098 non-redundant genes. Gene expression comparison revealed that 1,267 and 6,663 annotated genes were, respectively, up- and downregulated with at least twofold changes upon heat stress. Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway analyses indicated that there were overrepresented amount of genes enriched in a broad spectrum of biological processes and pathways, including those associated with cytoskeleton organization, developmental regulation, signaling transduction, infection, and cardiac function. In addition, a transcriptome-wide search for polymorphic loci yielded a total of 11,228 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) from 9,938 unigenes and 138,631 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and insertion/deletion (INDEL) sites among 22,770 unigenes. The large number of transcript sequences acquired, the biological pathways identified, and the candidate microsatellite and SNP/INDEL loci discovered in the study will serve as valuable resources for further investigations of genetic differentiation and thermal adaptation among populations.

Experimental evolution for generalists and specialists reveals multivariate genetic constraints on thermal reaction norms

Theory predicts the emergence of generalists in variable environments and antagonistic pleiotropy to favour specialists in constant environments, but empirical data seldom support such generalist-specialist trade-offs. We selected for generalists and specialists in the dung fly Sepsis punctum (Diptera: Sepsidae) under conditions that we predicted would reveal antagonistic pleiotropy and multivariate trade-offs underlying thermal reaction norms for juvenile development. We performed replicated laboratory evolution using four treatments: adaptation at a hot (31 °C) or a cold (15 °C) temperature, or under regimes fluctuating between these temperatures, either within or between generations. After 20 generations, we assessed parental effects and genetic responses of thermal reaction norms for three correlated life-history traits: size at maturity, juvenile growth rate and juvenile survival. We find evidence for antagonistic pleiotropy for performance at hot and cold temperatures, and a temperature-mediated trade-off between juvenile survival and size at maturity, suggesting that trade-offs associated with environmental tolerance can arise via intensified evolutionary compromises between genetically correlated traits. However, despite this antagonistic pleiotropy, we found no support for the evolution of increased thermal tolerance breadth at the expense of reduced maximal performance, suggesting low genetic variance in the generalist-specialist dimension.

Microhabitats reduce animal's exposure to climate extremes

Extreme weather events, such as unusually hot or dry conditions, can cause death by exceeding physiological limits, and so cause loss of population. Survival will depend on whether or not susceptible organisms can find refuges that buffer extreme conditions. Microhabitats offer different microclimates to those found within the wider ecosystem, but do these microhabitats effectively buffer extreme climate events relative to the physiological requirements of the animals that frequent them? We collected temperature data from four common microhabitats (soil, tree holes, epiphytes, and vegetation) located from the ground to canopy in primary rainforests in the Philippines. Ambient temperatures were monitored from outside of each microhabitat and from the upper forest canopy, which represent our macrohabitat controls. We measured the critical thermal maxima (CTmax ) of frog and lizard species, which are thermally sensitive and inhabit our microhabitats. Microhabitats reduced mean temperature by 1-2 °C and reduced the duration of extreme temperature exposure by 14-31 times. Microhabitat temperatures were below the CTmax of inhabitant frogs and lizards, whereas macrohabitats consistently contained lethal temperatures. Microhabitat temperatures increased by 0.11-0.66 °C for every 1 °C increase in macrohabitat temperature, and this nonuniformity in temperature change influenced our forecasts of vulnerability for animal communities under climate change. Assuming uniform increases of 6 °C, microhabitats decreased the vulnerability of communities by up to 32-fold, whereas under nonuniform increases of 0.66 to 3.96 °C, microhabitats decreased the vulnerability of communities by up to 108-fold. Microhabitats have extraordinary potential to buffer climate and likely reduce mortality during extreme climate events. These results suggest that predicted changes in distribution due to mortality and habitat shifts that are derived from macroclimatic samples and that assume uniform changes in microclimates relative to macroclimates may be overly pessimistic. Nevertheless, even nonuniform temperature increases within buffered microhabitats would still threaten frogs and lizards.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish

The physical and ecological 'fingerprints' of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to 'fine-grained' population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change.

Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO2 -driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high-pCO2 /low-pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present-day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO2 , indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40 ± 0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO2 , and 0.50 ± 0.30 under high-pCO2 conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA-driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the 'no-adaptation' scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high-pCO2 rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future OA.

Using physiology to predict the responses of ants to climatic warming

Physiological intolerance of high temperatures places limits on organismal responses to the temperature increases associated with global climatic change. Because ants are geographically widespread, ecologically diverse, and thermophilic, they are an ideal system for exploring the extent to which physiological tolerance can predict responses to environmental change. Here, we expand on simple models that use thermal tolerance to predict the responses of ants to climatic warming. We investigated the degree to which changes in the abundance of ants under warming reflect reductions in the thermal niche space for their foraging. In an eastern deciduous forest system in the United States with approximately 40 ant species, we found that for some species, the loss of thermal niche space for foraging was related to decreases in abundance with increasing experimental climatic warming. However, many ant species exhibited no loss of thermal niche space. For one well-studied species, Temnothorax curvispinosus, we examined both survival of workers and growth of colonies (a correlate of reproductive output) as functions of temperature in the laboratory, and found that the range of thermal tolerances for colony growth was much narrower than for survival of workers. We evaluated these functions in the context of experimental climatic warming and found that the difference in the responses of these two attributes to temperature generates differences in the means and especially the variances of expected fitness under warming. The expected mean growth of colonies was optimized at intermediate levels of warming (2-4°C above ambient); yet, the expected variance monotonically increased with warming. In contrast, the expected mean and variance of the survival of workers decreased when warming exceeded 4°C above ambient. Together, these results for T. curvispinosus emphasize the importance of measuring reproduction (colony growth) in the context of climatic change: indeed, our examination of the loss of thermal niche space with the larger species pool could be missing much of the warming impact due to these analyses being based on survival rather than reproduction. We suggest that while physiological tolerance of temperature can be a useful predictive tool for modeling responses to climatic change, future efforts should be devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of variability in models of tolerance calibrated with different metrics of performance and fitness.

Quantitative genetic divergence and standing genetic (co)variance in thermal reaction norms along latitude

Although the potential to adapt to warmer climate is constrained by genetic trade-offs, our understanding of how selection and mutation shape genetic (co)variances in thermal reaction norms is poor. Using 71 isofemale lines of the fly Sepsis punctum, originating from northern, central, and southern European climates, we tested for divergence in juvenile development rate across latitude at five experimental temperatures. To investigate effects of evolutionary history in different climates on standing genetic variation in reaction norms, we further compared genetic (co)variances between regions. Flies were reared on either high or low food resources to explore the role of energy acquisition in determining genetic trade-offs between different temperatures. Although the latter had only weak effects on the strength and sign of genetic correlations, genetic architecture differed significantly between climatic regions, implying that evolution of reaction norms proceeds via different trajectories at high latitude versus low latitude in this system. Accordingly, regional genetic architecture was correlated to region-specific differentiation. Moreover, hot development temperatures were associated with low genetic variance and stronger genetic correlations compared to cooler temperatures. We discuss the evolutionary potential of thermal reaction norms in light of their underlying genetic architectures, evolutionary histories, and the materialization of trade-offs in natural environments.