Community-level phylogenetic diversity does not differ between rare and common lineages across tallgrass prairies in the northern Great Plains

Niche differentiation has served as one explanation for species coexistence, and phylogenetic relatedness provides a means to approximate how ecologically similar species are to each other. To explore the contribution of rare species to community phylogenetic diversity, we sampled 21 plant communities across the Prairie Coteau ecoregion, an area of high conservation concern. We used breakpoint analysis through the iterative addition of less abundant species to the phylogenetic tree for each community to assess the contribution of rare species to community phylogenetic diversity. We also quantify the phylogenetic signal of abundance using Blomberg's K statistic and calculated the phylogenetic similarity between rare and common species using a phylogenetic beta-diversity metric (D nn). To estimate the phylogenetic structuring of these prairie communities, we calculated two common metrics that capture evolutionary relatedness at different scales (MPD and MNTD). Additionally, we examine the correlation between Faith's PD, MPD, and MNTD and species richness. We found rare species do not generally contribute higher levels of phylogenetic diversity than common species. Eight communities had significant breakpoints, with only four communities having an increasing trend for the rarest species. The phylogenetic signal for abundance was low but significant in only four communities, and communities had lower phylogenetic diversity than expected from the regional species pool. Finally, the strength of the correlation between species richness and phylogenetic diversity was mixed. Our results indicate niche differentiation does not explain the persistence of rare species in tallgrass prairies, as they were more closely related than expected from random, suggesting high functional redundancy between rare and common species. This is promising for the long-term resilience of this ecosystem, but only insofar as enough species remain in the system. With ongoing biodiversity loss, it is essential that we understand the role rare species play in their communities.

Lost, gained, and regained functional and phylogenetic diversity of European mammals since 8000 years ago

Mammals have experienced high levels of human-mediated extirpations but have also been widely introduced to new locations, and some have recovered from historic persecution. Both of these processes-losses and gains-have resulted in concern about functional losses and changes in ecological communities as new ecological states develop. The question of whether species turnover inevitably leads to declines in functional and phylogenetic diversity depends, however, on the traits and phylogenetic distinctiveness of the species that are lost, gained, or regained. Comparing ~8000 years ago with the last century, we show that extirpations and range retractions have indeed reduced the functional and phylogenetic diversity of mammals in most European regions (countries and island groups), but species recoveries and the introduction of non-native species have increased functional and phylogenetic diversity by equivalent or greater amounts in many regions. Overall, across Europe, species richness increased in 41 regions over the last 8000 years and declined in 1; phylogenetic diversity increased in 33 and declined in 12, while functional diversity results showed 20 increases and 25 decreases. The balance of losses (extirpations) and gains (introductions, range expansions) has, however, led to net increases in functional diversity on many islands, where the original diversity was low, and across most of western Europe. Historically extirpated mega- and mesofaunal species have recolonized or been reintroduced to many European regions, contributing to recent functional and phylogenetic diversity recovery. If conservation rewilding projects continue to reintroduce regionally extirpated species and domestic descendants of "extinct" species to provide replacement grazing, browsing, and predation, there is potential to generate net functional and phylogenetic diversity gains (relative to 8000 years ago) in most European regions.

When and where to protect forests

Ongoing deforestation poses a major threat to biodiversity^1,2. With limited resources and imminent threats, deciding when as well as where to conserve is a fundamental question. Here we use a dynamic optimization approach to identify an optimal sequence for the conservation of plant species in 458 forested ecoregions globally over the next 50 years. The optimization approach includes species richness in each forested ecoregion, complementarity of species across ecoregions, costs of conservation that rise with cumulative protection in an ecoregion, the existing degree of protection, the rate of deforestation and the potential for reforestation in each ecoregion. The optimal conservation strategy for this formulation initially targets a small number of ecoregions where further deforestation leads to large reductions in species and where the costs of conservation are low. In later years, conservation efforts spread to more ecoregions, and invest in both expanded protection of primary forest and reforestation. The largest gains in species conservation come in Melanesia, South and Southeast Asia, the Anatolian peninsula, northern South America and Central America. The results highlight the potentially large gains in conservation that can be made with carefully targeted investments.

Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning

A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.

Improving biodiversity protection through artificial intelligence

Over a million species face extinction, urging the need for conservation policies that maximize the protection of biodiversity to sustain its manifold contributions to people. Here we present a novel framework for spatial conservation prioritization based on reinforcement learning that consistently outperforms available state-of-the-art software using simulated and empirical data. Our methodology, CAPTAIN (Conservation Area Prioritization Through Artificial INtelligence), quantifies the trade-off between the costs and benefits of area and biodiversity protection, allowing the exploration of multiple biodiversity metrics. Under a limited budget, our model protects substantially more species from extinction than areas selected randomly or naively (such as based on species richness). CAPTAIN achieves substantially better solutions with empirical data than alternative software, meeting conservation targets more reliably and generating more interpretable prioritization maps. Regular biodiversity monitoring, even with a degree of inaccuracy characteristic of citizen science surveys, substantially improves biodiversity outcomes. Artificial intelligence holds great promise for improving the conservation and sustainable use of biological and ecosystem values in a rapidly changing and resourcelimited world.

Uncovering patterns of public perceptions towards biodiversity crime using conservation culturomics

This paper examines aspects of the relationship between (1) the recently typified form of biodiversity crime, (2) information made available to the public through the Internet, and (3) cultural dynamics quantified through info-surveillance methods through Culturomics techniques. We propose two conceptual models: (1) the building-up process of a biodiversity crime culturome, in some language, and (2) a multi-stage biodiversity conservation chain and biodiversity-crime activities relating to each stage. We use crowd search volumes on the Internet on biodiversity crime-related terms and topics as proxies for measuring public interest. The main findings are: (1) the concept of biodiversity-crime per se is still immature and presents low penetration to the general public; (2) biodiversity-crime issues, not recognized as such, are amalgamated in conservation-oriented websites and pages; and (3) differences in perceptions and priorities between general vs. niche public with particular interest(s) in environmental issues- are discernable.

Establishment of a fecal DNA quantification technique for rare and cryptic diet constituents in small mammals

DNA-based approaches have highly improved the applicability of dietary studies aimed at investigating ecological processes. These studies have provided direct insights into, otherwise difficult to measure, interactions between species and trophic levels, food web structure and ecosystem functioning. However, despite these advances, DNA-based methods have been struggling to accurately quantify the whole breadth of diet constituents because of methodological biases, such as amplification bias and digestive processes. This study is, to our knowledge, the first diet study that used droplet digital PCR to quantify diet constituents. We manipulated the diet of wild caught wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) by feeding them with a known amount of small vegetable seeds (onion and carrot) and quantified the DNA traces of these diet constituents in fecal samples. The sensitivity of the technique combined with the control on the experimental design allowed mitigation of methodological bias. We were able to accurately determine DNA concentrations of small vegetable seeds in the diet of wood mice. Quantification of target DNA demonstrated significant differences in DNA content when one vs. five seeds were consumed. These differences remained significant when the age, sex, and other diet constituents of the mice were altered. Different DNA markers, targeting different parts of the chloroplast, influenced onion DNA detectability. However, all onion and carrot markers showed higher DNA content for higher seed numbers. Overall, the sensitive DNA based approach developed in this study allows for minimally-invasive quantification of small diet constituents in feces, which would otherwise be undetectable with traditional methods.

Botanical Composition and Species Diversity of Arid and Desert Rangelands in Tataouine, Tunisia

Natural rangelands occupy about 5.5 million hectares of Tunisia’s landmass, and 38% of this area is in Tataouine governorate. Although efforts towards natural restoration are increasing rapidly as a result of restoration projects, the area of degraded rangelands has continued to expand and the severity of desertification has continued to intensify. Any damage caused by disturbances, such as grazing and recurrent drought, may be masked by a return of favorable rainfall conditions. In this work, conducted during March 2018, we surveyed the botanical composition and species diversity of natural rangelands in Tataouine in southern Tunisia. The flora comprised about 279 species belonging to 58 families, with 54% annuals and 46% perennials. The Asteraceae family had the greatest richness of species, followed by Poaceae, Fabaceae, Amaranthaceae, Brassicaceae, Boraginaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Lamiaceae, Apiaceae, and Cistaceae. Therophytes made the highest contribution, followed by chamaephytes and hemicryptophytes. Of all these species, 40% were palatable to highly palatable and more than 13% are used in both traditional and modern medicine.

Wetland Surface Water Detection from Multipath SAR Images Using Gaussian Process-Based Temporal Interpolation

Wetlands provide society with a myriad of ecosystem services, such as water storage, food sources, and flood control. The ecosystem services provided by a wetland are largely dependent on its hydrological dynamics. Constant monitoring of the spatial extent of water surfaces and the duration of flooding of a wetland is necessary to understand the impact of drought on the ecosystem services a wetland provides. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has the potential to reveal wetland dynamics. Multitemporal SAR image analysis for wetland monitoring has been extensively studied based on the advances of modern SAR missions. Unfortunately, most previous studies utilized monopath SAR images, which result in limited success. Tracking changes in individual wetlands remains a challenging task because several environmental factors, such as wind-roughened water, degrade image quality. In general, the data acquisition frequency is an important factor in time series analysis. We propose a Gaussian process-based temporal interpolation (GPTI) method that enables the synergistic use of SAR images taken from multiple paths. The proposed model is applied to a series of Sentinel-1 images capturing wetlands in Okanogan County, Washington State. Our experimental analysis demonstrates that the multiple path analysis based on the proposed method can extract seasonal changes more accurately than a single path analysis.

What does it cost to ensure salt marsh migration? Using hedonic modeling to inform cost-effective conservation

The preservation of salt marshes under rapid sea-level rise (SLR) typically requires the conservation of marsh transgression zones-undeveloped uplands onto which marshes can migrate. Optimal planning for conservation of this type requires information on the expected benefit of marsh conservation and the cost of land suitable for marsh migration in particular areas. While information is available on marsh benefits within the literature, prior research provides little insight on associated land conservation costs. The coastal hedonic pricing literature focuses primarily on developed land, and there are no models designed to predict the cost of conserving land suitable for marsh migration. This paper develops a hedonic property value model to predict cost and explore price patterns associated with purchases of undeveloped land suitable for salt marsh migration under SLR. The model is illustrated using a case study from the Eastern Shore of Virginia, with a dataset consisting of open-market sales of undeveloped land from 2014 to 2017. Particular attention is paid to characteristics that determine marsh migration potential such as coastal distance, elevation and connectivity. Results demonstrate the insight for conservation planning that can be provided by models of this type and the errors associated with the use of simplified proxies to predict conservation costs of land suitable for marsh migration.

Glacial cycles drive rapid divergence of cryptic field vole species

Understanding the factors that contribute to the generation of reproductively isolated forms is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biology. Cryptic species are an especially interesting challenge to study in this context since they lack obvious morphological differentiation that provides clues to adaptive divergence that may drive reproductive isolation. Geographical isolation in refugial areas during glacial cycling is known to be important for generating genetically divergent populations, but its role in the origination of new species is still not fully understood and likely to be situation dependent. We combine analysis of 35,434 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with environmental niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genomic and ecological divergence in three cryptic species formerly classified as the field vole (Microtus agrestis). The SNPs demonstrate high genomic divergence (pairwise F ST values of 0.45-0.72) and little evidence of gene flow among the three field vole cryptic species, and we argue that genetic drift may have been a particularly important mechanism for divergence in the group. The ENM reveals three areas as potential glacial refugia for the cryptic species and differing climatic niches, although with spatial overlap between species pairs. This evidence underscores the role that glacial cycling has in promoting genetic differentiation and reproductive isolation by subdivision into disjunct distributions at glacial maxima in areas relatively close to ice sheets. Future investigation of the intrinsic barriers to gene flow between the field vole cryptic species is required to fully assess the mechanisms that contribute to reproductive isolation. In addition, the Portuguese field vole (M. rozianus) shows a high inbreeding coefficient and a restricted climatic niche, and warrants investigation into its conservation status.

Heterogeneous Puumala orthohantavirus situation in endemic regions in Germany in summer 2019

Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) causes most human hantavirus disease cases in Europe. PUUV disease outbreaks are usually synchronized Germany-wide driven by beech mast-induced irruptions of its host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus). Recent data indicate high vole abundance, high PUUV prevalence and high human incidence in summer 2019 for some regions, but elsewhere values were low to moderate. This significant lack of synchrony among regions in Germany is in contrast to previous studies. Health institutions need to be informed about the heterogeneous distribution of human PUUV infection risk to initiate appropriate actions.

Managing birds of conservation concern on sandy shores: How much room for future conservation actions is there?

Resource limitations often prevent the active management required to maintain habitat quality in protected areas. Because restrictions in access or allowable public activities are the sole conservation measure in these locations, an important question to consider is whether species of conservation concern truly benefit from parcels that are shielded from human disturbance. Here, we assess the conservation benefit of protecting birds from human recreation on over 204 km of sandy beaches by (a) estimating the total area of beach-nesting bird habitat that has been created by conservation protections; (b) quantifying the change in nesting habitat extent should further conservation protections be implemented; and (c) providing data to inform future protected area expansion. We use a maximum entropy species distribution modeling approach to estimate the extent and quality of suitable habitat for four beach-nesting bird species of conservation concern under the existing management regime and compare it to scenarios in which the entire study area is either unprotected of fully protected from human disturbance. Managing humans has dramatic conservation returns for least terns and piping plovers, creating extensive nesting habitat that otherwise would not exist. There is considerable scope for conservation gains, potentially tripling the extent of nesting areas. Expanding conservation footprints for American oystercatchers and black skimmers is predicted to enhance the quality of existing nesting areas. The work demonstrates the utility of modeling changes in habitat suitability to inform protected area expansion on ocean beaches and coastal dunes.

Designing a Protected Area to Safeguard Imperiled Species from Urbanization

Reserve design is a process that can address ecological, social, and political factors to identify parcels of land needed to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Acquisition of parcels for a large terrestrial reserve is difficult because it typically occurs over a long timeframe and thus invokes consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. In central Florida, the U.S. government has authorized a new protected area, the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge. The new refuge will host important threatened and endangered species and habitats, and will be located to allow for species adaptation from climate change impacts. For this study we combined habitat objectives defined by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and projections from two urbanization models to provide guidance for Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge design. We used Marxan with Zones to find near-optimal solutions for protecting explicit amounts of five target habitats. We identified parcels for inclusion into the reserve design that the models allocated among two zones representing different methods of protection: fee-simple purchase (up to 20,234 ha authorized by the U.S. government), and conservation easement agreements (up to 40,469 ha authorized). As expected, for all scenarios we found an increase in costs as the proportion of fee-simple purchases was increased, reflecting the lesser cost of easements, but the number of parcels required for protection differed little among scenarios. The two urbanization models showed considerable agreement over which habitat patches they did not forecast to be developed, and some agreement over which parcels might be developed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may benefit from focusing on parcels that our analyses select frequently under both urban scenarios because these parcels are more likely to be in areas where there are fewer urbanization threats and a lower demand for land. The reserve designs we generated met U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service habitat goals within fee and easement zone restrictions, and we found reserve configurations that fell well below the mandated size limit.

Dynamic minimum set problem for reserve design: Heuristic solutions for large problems

Conversion of wild habitats to human dominated landscape is a major cause of biodiversity loss. An approach to mitigate the impact of habitat loss consists of designating reserves where habitat is preserved and managed. Determining the most valuable areas to preserve in a landscape is called the reserve design problem. There exists several possible formulations of the reserve design problem, depending on the objectives and the constraints. In this article, we considered the dynamic problem of designing a reserve that contains a desired area of several key habitats. The dynamic case implies that the reserve cannot be designed in one time step, due to budget constraints, and that habitats can be lost before they are reserved, due for example to climate change or human development. We proposed two heuristics strategies that can be used to select sites to reserve each year for large reserve design problem. The first heuristic is a combination of the Marxan and site-ordering algorithms and the second heuristic is an augmented version of the common naive myopic heuristic. We evaluated the strategies on several simulated examples and showed that the augmented greedy heuristic is particularly interesting when some of the habitats to protect are particularly threatened and/or the compactness of the network is accounted for.

Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate

The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no “easy-to-use” implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking.

Waiting can be an optimal conservation strategy, even in a crisis discipline

Biodiversity conservation projects confront immediate and escalating threats with limited funding. Conservation theory suggests that the best response to the species extinction crisis is to spend money as soon as it becomes available, and this is often an explicit constraint placed on funding. We use a general dynamic model of a conservation landscape to show that this decision to "front-load" project spending can be suboptimal if a delay allows managers to use resources more strategically. Our model demonstrates the existence of temporal efficiencies in conservation management, which parallel the spatial efficiencies identified by systematic conservation planning. The optimal timing of decisions balances the rate of biodiversity decline (e.g., the relaxation of extinction debts, or the progress of climate change) against the rate at which spending appreciates in value (e.g., through interest, learning, or capacity building). We contrast the benefits of acting and waiting in two ecosystems where restoration can mitigate forest bird extinction debts: South Australia's Mount Lofty Ranges and Paraguay's Atlantic Forest. In both cases, conservation outcomes cannot be maximized by front-loading spending, and the optimal solution recommends substantial delays before managers undertake conservation actions. Surprisingly, these delays allow superior conservation benefits to be achieved, in less time than front-loading. Our analyses provide an intuitive and mechanistic rationale for strategic delay, which contrasts with the orthodoxy of front-loaded spending for conservation actions. Our results illustrate the conservation efficiencies that could be achieved if decision makers choose when to spend their limited resources, as opposed to just where to spend them.

Assessing the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected-area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land-use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land-acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land-acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high-priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land-acquisition costs and land-use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24-78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73-13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19-82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost-effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.

The value of flexibility in conservation financing

Land-acquisition strategies employed by conservation organizations vary in their flexibility. Conservation-planning theory largely fails to reflect this by presenting models that are either extremely inflexible-parcel acquisitions are irreversible and budgets are fixed-or extremely flexible-previously acquired parcels can readily be sold. This latter approach, the selling of protected areas, is infeasible or problematic in many situations. We considered the value to conservation organizations of increasing the flexibility of their land-acquisition strategies through their approach to financing deals. Specifically, we modeled 2 acquisition-financing methods commonly used by conservation organizations: borrowing and budget carry-over. Using simulated data, we compared results from these models with those from an inflexible fixed-budget model and an extremely flexible selling model in which previous acquisitions could be sold to fund new acquisitions. We then examined 3 case studies of how conservation organizations use borrowing and budget carry-over in practice. Model comparisons showed that borrowing and budget carry-over always returned considerably higher rewards than the fixed-budget model. How they performed relative to the selling model depended on the relative conservation value of past acquisitions. Both the models and case studies showed that incorporating flexibility through borrowing or budget carry-over gives conservation organizations the ability to purchase parcels of higher conservation value than when budgets are fixed without the problems associated with the selling of protected areas.

The geography of hotspots of rarity-weighted richness of birds and their coverage by Natura 2000

A major challenge for biogeographers and conservation planners is to identify where to best locate or distribute high-priority areas for conservation and to explore whether these areas are well represented by conservation actions such as protected areas (PAs). We aimed to identify high-priority areas for conservation, expressed as hotpots of rarity-weighted richness (HRR)–sites that efficiently represent species–for birds across EU countries, and to explore whether HRR are well represented by the Natura 2000 network. Natura 2000 is an evolving network of PAs that seeks to conserve biodiversity through the persistence of the most patrimonial species and habitats across Europe. This network includes Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), where the latter regulated the designation of Special Protected Areas (SPA). Distribution maps for 416 bird species and complementarity-based approaches were used to map geographical patterns of rarity-weighted richness (RWR) and HRR for birds. We used species accumulation index to evaluate whether RWR was efficient surrogates to identify HRRs for birds. The results of our analysis support the proposition that prioritizing sites in order of RWR is a reliable way to identify sites that efficiently represent birds. HRRs were concentrated in the Mediterranean Basin and alpine and boreal biogeographical regions of northern Europe. The cells with high RWR values did not correspond to cells where Natura 2000 was present. We suggest that patterns of RWR could become a focus for conservation biogeography. Our analysis demonstrates that identifying HRR is a robust approach for prioritizing management actions, and reveals the need for more conservation actions, especially on HRR.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

The role of physical habitat and sampling effort on estimates of benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness at basin and site scales

Taxonomic richness is one of the most important measures of biological diversity in ecological studies, including those with stream macroinvertebrates. However, it is impractical to measure the true richness of any site directly by sampling. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of sampling effort on estimates of macroinvertebrate family and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) genera richness at two scales: basin and stream site. In addition, we tried to determine which environmental factors at the site scale most influenced the amount of sampling effort needed. We sampled 39 sites in the Cerrado biome (neotropical savanna). In each site, we obtained 11 equidistant samples of the benthic assemblage and multiple physical habitat measurements. The observed basin-scale richness achieved a consistent estimation from Chao 1, Jack 1, and Jack 2 richness estimators. However, at the site scale, there was a constant increase in the observed number of taxa with increased number of samples. Models that best explained the slope of site-scale sampling curves (representing the necessity of greater sampling effort) included metrics that describe habitat heterogeneity, habitat structure, anthropogenic disturbance, and water quality, for both macroinvertebrate family and EPT genera richness. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering basin- and site-scale sampling effort in ecological surveys and that taxa accumulation curves and richness estimators are good tools for assessing sampling efficiency. The physical habitat explained a significant amount of the sampling effort needed. Therefore, future studies should explore the possible implications of physical habitat characteristics when developing sampling objectives, study designs, and calculating the needed sampling effort.

Large-scale ecological networks do work in an ecologically complex biodiversity hotspot

Landscape-scale ecological networks (ENs) are interconnected conservation corridors of high-quality habitat used to mitigate the adverse effects of landscape fragmentation and to connect with protected areas. The effectiveness of ENs for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem function has been challenged. Here we show how an extensive system of ENs of remnant historic land was put in place at a large spatial scale (>0.5 million ha) in a plantation forestry context in a global biodiversity hotspot in southern Africa. These ENs can maintain indigenous and historic compositional and functional biodiversity, even in an area prone to the challenging effects of El Niño. Furthermore, ENs increase the effective size of local protected areas. Socio-ecological solutions and financial viability are also integrated as part of practical implementation of ENs. By adopting a retrospective analytical approach, biodiversity is maintained while also having productive forestry, making this a powerful agro-ecological approach on a large conservation-significant scale.

Detecting Trends in Landuse and Landcover Change of Nech Sar National Park, Ethiopia

Nech Sar National Park (NSNP) is one of the most important biodiversity centers in Ethiopia. In recent years, a widespread decline of the terrestrial ecosystems has been reported, yet to date there is no comprehensive assessment on degradation across the park. In this study, changes in landcover were analyzed using 30 m spatial resolution Landsat imagery. Interannual variations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were examined and compared with climatic variables. The result presented seven landcover classes and five of the seven landcover classes (forest, bush/shrubland, wooded grassland, woodland and grassland) were related to natural vegetation and two landcover types (cultivated land and area under encroaching plants) were direct results of anthropogenic alterations of the landscape. The forest, grassland, and wooded grassland are the most threatened habitat types. A considerable area of the grassland has been replaced by encroaching plants, prominently by Dichrostachys cinerea, Acacia mellifera, A. nilotica, A. oerfota, and A. seyal and is greatly affected by expansion of herbaceous plants, most commonly the species of the family Malvaceae which include Abutilon anglosomaliae, A.bidentatum and A.figarianu. Thus, changes in vegetation of NSNP may be attributed to (i) degradation of existing vegetation through deforestation and (ii) replacement of existing vegetation by encroaching plants. While limited in local meteorological station, NDVI analysis indicated that climate related changes did not have major effects on park vegetation degradation, which suggests anthropogenic impacts as a major driver of observed disturbances.

Spatial predictions at the community level: from current approaches to future frameworks

A fundamental goal of ecological research is to understand and model how processes generate patterns so that if conditions change, changes in the patterns can be predicted. Different approaches have been proposed for modelling species assemblage, but their use to predict spatial patterns of species richness and other community attributes over a range of spatial and temporal scales remains challenging. Different methods emphasize different processes of structuring communities and different goals. In this review, we focus on models that were developed for generating spatially explicit predictions of communities, with a particular focus on species richness, composition, relative abundance and related attributes. We first briefly describe the concepts and theories that span the different drivers of species assembly. A combination of abiotic processes and biotic mechanisms are thought to influence the community assembly process. In this review, we describe four categories of drivers: (i) historical and evolutionary, (ii) environmental, (iii) biotic, and (iv) stochastic. We discuss the different modelling approaches proposed or applied at the community level and examine them from different standpoints, i.e. the theoretical bases, the drivers included, the source data, and the expected outputs, with special emphasis on conservation needs under climate change. We also highlight the most promising novelties, possible shortcomings, and potential extensions of existing methods. Finally, we present new approaches to model and predict species assemblages by reviewing promising 'integrative frameworks' and views that seek to incorporate all drivers of community assembly into a unique modelling workflow. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these new solutions and how they may hasten progress in community-level modelling.