The evolution of unconditional strategies via the 'multiplier effect'

Temporal variability can promote migration between habitats

Understanding the conditions that promote the evolution of migration is important in ecology and evolution. When environments are fixed and there is one most favorable site, migration to other sites lowers overall growth rate and is not favored. Here we ask, can environmental variability favor migration when there is one best site on average? Previous work suggests that the answer is yes, but a general and precise answer remained elusive. Here we establish new, rigorous inequalities to show (and use simulations to illustrate) how stochastic growth rate can increase with migration when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites. The effect of migration between sites on the overall stochastic growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth rates and the variance of the fluctuating difference in growth rates. When fluctuations (variance) are large, a population can benefit from bursts of higher growth in sites that are worse on average. Such bursts become more probable as the between-site variance increases. Our results apply to many (≥ 2) sites, and reveal an interplay between the length of paths between sites, the average differences in site-specific growth rates, and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for evolutionary biology as they provide conditions for departure from the reduction principle, and for ecological dynamics: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space determine the importance of migration.

Evolutionary ecology of dispersal in biodiverse spatially structured systems: what is old and what is new?

Dispersal is a well-recognized driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, and simultaneously an evolving trait. Dispersal evolution has traditionally been studied in single-species metapopulations so that it remains unclear how dispersal evolves in metacommunities and metafoodwebs, which are characterized by a multitude of species interactions. Since most natural systems are both species-rich and spatially structured, this knowledge gap should be bridged. Here, we discuss whether knowledge from dispersal evolutionary ecology established in single-species systems holds in metacommunities and metafoodwebs and we highlight generally valid and fundamental principles. Most biotic interactions form the backdrop to the ecological theatre for the evolutionary dispersal play because interactions mediate patterns of fitness expectations across space and time. While this allows for a simple transposition of certain known principles to a multispecies context, other drivers may require more complex transpositions, or might not be transferred. We discuss an important quantitative modulator of dispersal evolution-increased trait dimensionality of biodiverse meta-systems-and an additional driver: co-dispersal. We speculate that scale and selection pressure mismatches owing to co-dispersal, together with increased trait dimensionality, may lead to a slower and more 'diffuse' evolution in biodiverse meta-systems. Open questions and potential consequences in both ecological and evolutionary terms call for more investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Should dispersers be fast learners? Modeling the role of cognition in dispersal syndromes

Both cognitive abilities and dispersal tendencies can vary strongly between individuals. Since cognitive abilities may help dealing with unknown circumstances, it is conceivable that dispersers may rely more heavily on learning abilities than residents. However, cognitive abilities are costly and leaving a familiar place might result in losing the advantage of having learned to deal with local conditions. Thus, individuals which invested in learning to cope with local conditions may be better off staying at their natal place. In order to disentangle the complex relationship between dispersal and learning abilities, we implemented individual-based simulations. By allowing for developmental plasticity, individuals could either become a 'resident' or 'dispersal' cognitive phenotype. The model showed that in general residents have higher learning abilities than dispersers. Dispersers evolve higher learning ability than residents when dispersers have long life spans and when dispersal occurs either early or late in life, thereby maximizing the time in one habitat patch. Time is crucial here, because the longer an individual resides in a location where it can use its learned knowledge or behavior, the more often it profits from it and thus eventually obtains a net benefit from its investment into learning. Both, longevity and the timing of dispersal within lifecycles determine the time individuals have to recoup that investment and thus crucially influence this correlation. We therefore suggest that species' life history will strongly impact the expected cognitive abilities of dispersers, relative to their resident conspecifics, and that cognitive abilities might be an integral part of dispersal syndromes.

Evolution of epigenetic transmission when selection acts on fecundity versus viability

Existing theory on the evolution of parental effects and the inheritance of non-genetic factors has mostly focused on the role of environmental change. By contrast, how differences in population demography and life history affect parental effects is poorly understood. To fill this gap, we develop an analytical model to explore how parental effects evolve when selection acts on fecundity versus viability in spatio-temporally fluctuating environments. We find that regimes of viability selection, but not fecundity selection, are most likely to favour parental effects. In the case of viability selection, locally adapted phenotypes have a higher survival than maladapted phenotypes and hence become enriched in the local environment. Hence, simply by being alive, a parental phenotype becomes correlated to its environment (and hence informative to offspring) during its lifetime, favouring the evolution of parental effects. By contrast, in regimes of fecundity selection, correlations between phenotype and environment develop more slowly: this is because locally adapted and maladapted parents survive at equal rates (no survival selection), so that parental phenotypes, by themselves, are uninformative about the local environment. However, because locally adapted parents are more fecund, they contribute more offspring to the local patch than maladapted parents. In case these offspring are also likely to inherit the adapted parents' phenotypes (requiring pre-existing inheritance), locally adapted offspring become enriched in the local environment, resulting in a correlation between phenotype and environment, but only in the offspring's generation. Because of this slower build-up of a correlation between phenotype and environment essential to parental effects, fecundity selection is more sensitive to any distortions owing to environmental change than viability selection. Hence, we conclude that viability selection is most conducive to the evolution of parental effects. This article is part of the theme issue 'How does epigenetics influence the course of evolution?'

Phenotypic and environmental correlates of natal dispersal in a long-lived territorial vulture

Natal dispersal, the movement between the birth and the first breeding site, has been rarely studied in long-lived territorial birds with a long-lasting pre-breeding stage. Here we benefited from the long-term monitoring programs of six populations of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) from Spain and France to study how the rearing environment determines dispersal. For 124 vultures, we recorded a median dispersal distance of 48 km (range 0-656 km). Linear models were used to assess the effect of population and individual traits on dispersal distance at two spatial scales. Dispersal distances were inversely related to vulture density in the natal population, suggesting that birds perceive the abundance of conspecifics as a signal of habitat quality. This was particularly true for declining populations, so increasing levels of opportunistic philopatry seemed to arise in high density contexts as a consequence of vacancies created by human-induced adult mortality. Females dispersed further than males, but males were more sensitive to the social environment, indicating different dispersal tactics. Both sexes were affected by different individual attributes simultaneously and interactively with this social context. These results highlight that complex phenotype-by-environment interactions should be considered for advancing our understanding of dispersal dynamics in long-lived organisms.

Win-stay/lose-switch, prospecting-based settlement strategy may not be adaptive under rapid environmental change

Understanding animal responses to environmental change is crucial for management of ecological traps. Between-year habitat selection was investigated in red-necked grebes (Podiceps grisegena) breeding on semi-natural fish ponds, where differential stocking of fish created contrasting yet poorly predictable brood-stage food availabilities. Grebes lured to low-quality ponds were more likely to shift territories than birds nesting on high-quality ponds, and tended to move to ponds whose habitat quality had been high in the previous year, irrespective of the current quality of the new and old territories. The territory switchers typically visited their future breeding ponds during or immediately after the brood-rearing period. However, owing to rotation of fish stocks, the habitat quality of many ponds changed in the following year, and then switchers from low-quality ponds and stayers on previously high-quality ponds were ecologically trapped. Thus, although breeders were making an informed choice, their settlement decisions, based on the win-stay/lose-switch rule and prospecting a year in advance, were inappropriate in conditions of year-to-year habitat fluctuations. Effective adaptation to rapid environmental change may necessitate both learning to correctly evaluate uncertain environmental cues and abandonment of previously adaptive decision-making algorithms (here prioritizing past-year information and assuming temporal autocorrelation of habitat quality).

The Evolution of Immigration Strategies Facilitates Niche Expansion by Divergent Adaptation in a Structured Metapopulation Model

Local adaptation and habitat choice are two key factors that control the distribution and diversification of species. Here we model habitat choice mechanistically as the outcome of dispersal with nonrandom immigration. We consider a structured metapopulation with a continuous distribution of patch types and determine the evolutionarily stable immigration strategy as the function linking patch type to the probability of settling in the patch on encounter. We uncover a novel mechanism whereby coexisting strains that only slightly differ in their local adaptation trait can evolve substantially different immigration strategies. In turn, different habitat use selects for divergent adaptations in the two strains. We propose that the joint evolution of immigration and local adaptation can facilitate diversification and discuss our results in the light of niche conservatism versus niche expansion.

Resolving the Paradox of Environmental Quality and Sociality: The Ecological Causes and Consequences of Cooperative Breeding in Two Lineages of Birds

Cooperatively breeding animals occur in virtually every ecosystem on earth. Comparative and biogeographic studies suggest that both benign and harsh-as well as stable and fluctuating-environments can favor the evolution of cooperative breeding behavior. The fact that cooperative societies occur in environments of such contrasting quality creates a paradox of environmental quality and sociality. The dual benefits framework-which leads to the prediction that the ecological consequences of sociality (e.g., range size) vary depending on the benefits that individuals of each species receive by forming social groups-offers a potential resolution to this paradox. Here we use a case study of two avian lineages, starlings (Sturnidae) and hornbills (Bucerotidae), in which environmental unpredictability appears to have opposite effects on the evolution of cooperation to test the dual benefits framework. Consistent with previous work, harsh and unpredictable environments promote cooperative breeding behavior in starlings, which in turn leads to larger geographic ranges. However, cooperatively breeding hornbills occur in benign and stable environments, but sociality does not influence range size. Our study suggests that the paradox of environmental quality and sociality arises largely because cooperative breeding is an umbrella term encompassing social species that form groups for different reasons. We demonstrate that differentiating among the functional causes of social group formation is critical for developing a predictive framework for understanding the evolution of cooperative breeding behavior.

Personality-matching habitat choice, rather than behavioural plasticity, is a likely driver of a phenotype-environment covariance

An emerging hypothesis of animal personality posits that animals choose the habitat that best fits their personality, and that the match between habitat and personality can facilitate population differentiation, and eventually speciation. However, behavioural plasticity and the adjustment of behaviours to new environments have been a classical explanation for such matching patterns. Using a population of dunnocks (Prunella modularis), we empirically tested whether personality or behavioural plasticity is responsible for the non-random distribution of shy and bold individuals in a heterogeneous environment. We found evidence for bold individuals settling in areas with high human disturbance, but also that birds became bolder with increasing age. Importantly, personality primarily determines the distribution of individuals, and behavioural adjustment over time contributes very little to the observed patterns. We cannot, however, exclude a possibility of very early behavioural plasticity (a type of developmental plasticity) shaping what we refer to as 'personality'. Nonetheless, our findings highlight the role personality plays in shaping population structure, lending support to the theory of personality-mediated speciation. Moreover, personality-matching habitat choice has important implications for population management and conservation.

Sporadic nesting reveals long distance colonisation in the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta)

The colonisation of new suitable habitats is crucial for species survival at evolutionary scale under changing environmental conditions. However, colonisation potential may be limited by philopatry that facilitates exploiting successful habitats across generations. We examine the mechanisms of long distance dispersal of the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) by analysing 40 sporadic nesting events in the western Mediterranean. The analysis of a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA and 7 microsatellites of 121 samples from 18 of these nesting events revealed that these nests were colonising events associated with juveniles from distant populations feeding in nearby foraging grounds. Considering the temperature-dependent sex determination of the species, we simulated the effect of the incubation temperature and propagule pressure on a potential colonisation scenario. Our results indicated that colonisation will succeed if warm temperature conditions, already existing in some of the beaches in the area, extend to the whole western Mediterranean. We hypothesize that the sporadic nesting events in developmental foraging grounds may be a mechanism to overcome philopatry limitations thus increasing the dispersal capabilities of the species and the adaptability to changing environments. Sporadic nesting in the western Mediterranean can be viewed as potential new populations in a scenario of rising temperatures.

Detection vs. selection: integration of genetic, epigenetic and environmental cues in fluctuating environments

There are many inputs during development that influence an organism's fit to current or upcoming environments. These include genetic effects, transgenerational epigenetic influences, environmental cues and developmental noise, which are rarely investigated in the same formal framework. We study an analytically tractable evolutionary model, in which cues are integrated to determine mature phenotypes in fluctuating environments. Environmental cues received during development and by the mother as an adult act as detection-based (individually observed) cues. The mother's phenotype and a quantitative genetic effect act as selection-based cues (they correlate with environmental states after selection). We specify when such cues are complementary and tend to be used together, and when using the most informative cue will predominate. Thus, we extend recent analyses of the evolutionary implications of subsets of these effects by providing a general diagnosis of the conditions under which detection and selection-based influences on development are likely to evolve and coexist.

The ecology of cooperative breeding behaviour

Ecology is a fundamental driving force for the evolutionary transition from solitary living to breeding cooperatively in groups. However, the fact that both benign and harsh, as well as stable and fluctuating, environments can favour the evolution of cooperative breeding behaviour constitutes a paradox of environmental quality and sociality. Here, we propose a new model - the dual benefits framework - for resolving this paradox. Our framework distinguishes between two categories of grouping benefits - resource defence benefits that derive from group-defended critical resources and collective action benefits that result from social cooperation among group members - and uses insider-outsider conflict theory to simultaneously consider the interests of current group members (insiders) and potential joiners (outsiders) in determining optimal group size. We argue that the different grouping benefits realised from resource defence and collective action profoundly affect insider-outsider conflict resolution, resulting in predictable differences in the per capita productivity, stable group size, kin structure and stability of the social group. We also suggest that different types of environmental variation (spatial vs. temporal) select for societies that form because of the different grouping benefits, thus helping to resolve the paradox of why cooperative breeding evolves in such different types of environments.

Habitat Choice and Temporal Variation Alter the Balance between Adaptation by Genetic Differentiation, a Jack-of-All-Trades Strategy, and Phenotypic Plasticity

Confronted with variable environments, species adapt in several ways, including genetic differentiation, a jack-of-all-trades strategy, or phenotypic plasticity. Adaptive habitat choice favors genetic differentiation and local adaptation over a generalist, jack-of-all-trades strategy. Models predict that, absent plasticity costs, variable environments generally favor phenotypic plasticity over genetic differentiation and being a jack-of-all-trades generalist. It is unknown how habitat choice might affect the evolution of plasticity. Using an individual-based simulation model, I explored the interaction of choice and plasticity. With only spatial variation, habitat choice promotes genetic differentiation over a jack-of-all-trades strategy or phenotypic plasticity. In the absence of plasticity, temporal variation favors a jack-of-all-trades strategy over choice-mediated genetic differentiation; when plasticity is an option, it is favored. This occurs because habitat choice creates a feedback between genetic differentiation and dispersal rates. As demes become better adapted to their local environments, the effective dispersal rate decreases, because more individuals have very high fitness and so choose not to disperse, reinforcing local stabilizing selection and negating selection for plasticity. Temporal variation breaks that feedback. These results point to a potential data paradox: systems with habitat choice may have the lowest actual movement rates. The potential for adaptive habitat choice may be very common, but its existence may reduce observed dispersal rates enough that we do not recognize systems where it may be present, warranting further exploration of likely systems.

Parental effects and the evolution of phenotypic memory

Despite growing evidence for nongenetic inheritance, the ecological conditions that favour the evolution of heritable parental or grandparental effects remain poorly understood. Here, we systematically explore the evolution of parental effects in a patch-structured population with locally changing environments. When selection favours the production of a mix of offspring types, this mix differs according to the parental phenotype, implying that parental effects are favoured over selection for bet-hedging in which the mixture of offspring phenotypes produced does not depend on the parental phenotype. Positive parental effects (generating a positive correlation between parental and offspring phenotype) are favoured in relatively stable habitats and when different types of local environment are roughly equally abundant, and can give rise to long-term parental inheritance of phenotypes. By contrast, unstable habitats can favour negative parental effects (generating a negative correlation between parental and offspring phenotype), and under these circumstances, even slight asymmetries in the abundance of local environmental states select for marked asymmetries in transmission fidelity.

Information-Mediated Allee Effects in Breeding Habitat Selection

Social information is used widely in breeding habitat selection and provides an efficient means for individuals to select habitat, but the population-level consequences of this process are not well explored. At low population densities, efficiencies may be reduced because there are insufficient information providers to cue high-quality habitat. This constitutes what we call an information-mediated Allee effect. We present the first general model for an information-mediated Allee effect applied to breeding habitat selection and unify personal and social information, Allee effects, and ecological traps into a common framework. In a second model, we consider an explicit mechanism of social information gathering through prospecting on conspecific breeding performance. In each model, we independently vary personal and social information use to demonstrate how dependency on social information may result in either weak or strong Allee effects that, in turn, affect population extinction risk. Abrupt transitions between outcomes can occur through reduced information transfer or small changes in habitat composition. Overall, information-mediated Allee effects may produce positive feedbacks that amplify population declines in species that are already experiencing environmentally driven stressors, such as habitat loss and degradation. Alternatively, social information has the capacity to rescue populations from ecological traps.

Genes as cues: phenotypic integration of genetic and epigenetic information from a Darwinian perspective

The development of multicellular organisms involves a delicate interplay between genetic and environmental influences. It is often useful to think of developmental systems as integrating available sources of information about current conditions to produce organisms. Genes and inherited physiology provide cues, as does the state of the environment during development. The integration systems themselves are under genetic control and subject to Darwinian selection, so we expect them to evolve to produce organisms that fit well with current ecological (including social) conditions. We argue for the scientific value of this explicitly informational perspective by providing detailed examples of how it can elucidate taxonomically diverse phenomena. We also present a general framework for linking genetic and phenotypic variation from an informational perspective. This application of Darwinian logic at the organismal level can elucidate genetic influences on phenotypic variation in novel and counterintuitive ways.

When to rely on maternal effects and when on phenotypic plasticity?

Existing insight suggests that maternal effects have a substantial impact on evolution, yet these predictions assume that maternal effects themselves are evolutionarily constant. Hence, it is poorly understood how natural selection shapes maternal effects in different ecological circumstances. To overcome this, the current study derives an evolutionary model of maternal effects in a quantitative genetics context. In constant environments, we show that maternal effects evolve to slight negative values that result in a reduction of the phenotypic variance (canalization). By contrast, in populations experiencing abrupt change, maternal effects transiently evolve to positive values for many generations, facilitating the transmission of beneficial maternal phenotypes to offspring. In periodically fluctuating environments, maternal effects evolve according to the autocorrelation between maternal and offspring environments, favoring positive maternal effects when change is slow, and negative maternal effects when change is rapid. Generally, the strongest maternal effects occur for traits that experience very strong selection and for which plasticity is severely constrained. By contrast, for traits experiencing weak selection, phenotypic plasticity enhances the evolutionary scope of maternal effects, although maternal effects attain much smaller values throughout. As weak selection is common, finding substantial maternal influences on offspring phenotypes may be more challenging than anticipated.

Evolution in changing environments: modifiers of mutation, recombination, and migration

The production and maintenance of genetic and phenotypic diversity under temporally fluctuating selection and the signatures of environmental changes in the patterns of this variation have been important areas of focus in population genetics. On one hand, periods of constant selection pull the genetic makeup of populations toward local fitness optima. On the other, to cope with changes in the selection regime, populations may evolve mechanisms that create a diversity of genotypes. By tuning the rates at which variability is produced--such as the rates of recombination, mutation, or migration--populations may increase their long-term adaptability. Here we use theoretical models to gain insight into how the rates of these three evolutionary forces are shaped by fluctuating selection. We compare and contrast the evolution of recombination, mutation, and migration under similar patterns of environmental change and show that these three sources of phenotypic variation are surprisingly similar in their response to changing selection. We show that the shape, size, variance, and asymmetry of environmental fluctuation have different but predictable effects on evolutionary dynamics.

Demography can favour female-advantageous alleles

When female fecundity is relatively independent of male abundance, while male reproduction is proportional to female abundance, females have a larger effect on population dynamics than males (i.e. female demographic dominance). This population dynamic phenomenon might not appear to influence evolution, because male and female genomes still contribute equally much to the next generation. However, here we examine two evolutionary scenarios to provide a proof of principle that spatial structure can make female demographic dominance matter. Our two simulation models combine dispersal evolution with local adaptation subjected to intralocus sexual conflict and environmentally driven sex ratio biases, respectively. Both models have equilibria where one environment (without being intrinsically poorer) has so few reproductive females that trait evolution becomes disproportionately determined by those environments where females survive better (intralocus sexual conflict model), or where daughters are overproduced (environmental sex determination model). Surprisingly, however, the two facts that selection favours alleles that benefit females, and population growth is improved when female fitness is high, together do not imply that all measures of population performance are improved. The sex-specificity of the source-sink dynamics predicts that populations can evolve to fail to persist in habitats where alleles do poorly when expressed in females.

An empiricist's guide to theoretical predictions on the evolution of dispersal

Dispersal, the tendency for organisms to reproduce away from their parents, influences many evolutionary and ecological processes, from speciation and extinction events, to the coexistence of genotypes within species or biological invasions. Understanding how dispersal evolves is crucial to predict how global changes might affect species persistence and geographical distribution. The factors driving the evolution of dispersal have been well characterized from a theoretical standpoint, and predictions have been made about their respective influence on, for example, dispersal polymorphism or the emergence of dispersal syndromes. However, the experimental tests of some theories remain scarce partly because a synthetic view of theoretical advances is still lacking. Here, we review the different ingredients of models of dispersal evolution, from selective pressures and types of predictions, through mathematical and ecological assumptions, to the methods used to obtain predictions. We provide perspectives as to which predictions are easiest to test, how theories could be better exploited to provide testable predictions, what theoretical developments are needed to tackle this topic, and we place the question of the evolution of dispersal within the larger interdisciplinary framework of eco-evolutionary dynamics.