Do species’ traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges?

Population isolation in the Plains spadefoot toad: causes and conservation implications

Range disjunctions appear to be common in nature, although they may be caused by various factors. They may simply be an artefact of inadequate sampling. If real, they may be the result of colonization events or habitat change. With natural habitats showing increasing fragmentation because of human activity, understanding the cause of a disjunction can have important conservation implications. We investigate the geographical range of the Plains spadefoot toad, Spea bombifrons, a widely distributed species in the midwestern and southwestern United States, with a putative disjunct population in southern Texas. We combine GIS mapping, species distribution modeling, and population genetic analysis to investigate this putative disjunction. We establish that this southern Texas population is truly geographically disjunct and genetically distinct. Further, using climate projections we show that this unique population is at high risk of local extinction.

Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world.

Adaptation to fluctuating temperatures across life stages in endotherms

Accelerating rates of climate change have intensified research on thermal adaptation. Increasing temperature fluctuations, a prominent feature of climate change, means that the persistence of many species depends on both heat and cold tolerance across the entire life cycle. In endotherms, research has focused on specific life stages, with changes in thermoregulation across life rarely being examined. Consequently, there is a need to (i) analyse how heat and cold tolerance mechanisms coevolve, and (ii) test whether antagonistic effects between heat and cold tolerance across different life stages limit thermal adaptation. Information on genes influencing heat and cold tolerance and how they are expressed through life will enable more accurate modelling of species vulnerabilities to future climatic volatility.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

An evolutionary case for plant rarity: Eucalyptus as a model system

Species rarity is a common phenomenon across global ecosystems that is becoming increasingly more common under climate change. Although species rarity is often considered to be a stochastic response to environmental and ecological constraints, we examined the hypothesis that plant rarity is a consequence of natural selection acting on performance traits that affect a species range size, habitat specificity, and population aggregation; three primary descriptors of rarity. Using a common garden of 25 species of Tasmanian Eucalyptus, we find that the rarest species have 70% lower biomass than common species. Although rare species demonstrate lower biomass, rare species allocated proportionally more biomass aboveground than common species. There is also a negative phylogenetic autocorrelation underlying the biomass of rare and common species, indicating that traits associated with rarity have diverged within subgenera as a result of environmental factors to reach different associated optima. In support of our hypothesis, we found significant positive relationships between species biomass, range size and habitat specificity, but not population aggregation. These results demonstrate repeated convergent evolution of the trait-based determinants of rarity across the phylogeny in Tasmanian eucalypts. Furthermore, the phylogenetically driven patterns in biomass and biomass allocation seen in rare species may be representative of a larger plant strategy, not yet considered, but offering a mechanism as to how rare species continue to persist despite inherent constraints of small, specialized ranges and populations. These results suggest that if rarity can evolve and is related to plant traits such as biomass, rather than a random outcome of environmental constraints, we may need to revise conservation efforts in these and other rare species to reconsider the abiotic and biotic factors that underlie the distributions of rare plant species.

No evidence for a signal in mammalian basal metabolic rate associated with a fossorial lifestyle

A vast array of challenging environments are inhabited by mammals, such as living in confined spaces where oxygen levels are likely to be low. Species can exhibit adaptations in basal metabolic rate (BMR) to exploit such unique niches. In this study we use 801 species to determine the relationship between BMR and burrow use in mammals. We included pre-existing data for mammalian BMR and 16 life history traits. Overall, mammalian BMR is dictated primarily by environmental ambient temperature. There were no significant differences in BMR of terrestrial, semi-fossorial and fossorial mammals, suggesting that species occupying a subterranean niche do not exhibit baseline metabolic costs on account of their burrowing lifestyle. Fossorial mammals likely show instantaneous metabolic responses to low oxygen in tunnels, rather than exhibit adaptive long-term responses in their BMR.

A Warm Welcome to the Alps-The Northward Expansion of Trithemis annulata (Odonata, Libellulidae) in Italy

Climate warming has already influenced the distribution, community composition, and phenology of European Odonata. Trithemis annulata had been confined to the southern regions of Italy for over 150 years. In only four decades, it has expanded its range and has recently been observed inhabiting several alpine valleys. A dataset of 2557 geographical distribution data points spanning the years 1825-2023 was compiled using various resources, with the aim to analyse the chrono-story of the expansion of T. annulata. A further aim was to investigate the climatic conditions that best explain its current and future distribution. Over a period of 43 years, the species steadily extended its northern range margin at an approximate rate of 12 km/year. Once it reached the Po Plain, the expansion accelerated to an average speed of 34 km/year. However, its northward shift lagged behind the warming climate as we estimated an average speed of 28 km/year. In the future, the area suitable for T. annulata is expected to significantly increase in Italy. Surprisingly, we did not observe any consistent upward shift. Trithemis annulata has considerably expanded its distribution due to human-induced climate warming. The northernmost populations now inhabit Alpine valleys, potential gateways to central Europe.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Fire sparks upslope range shifts of North Cascades plant species

As ongoing climate change drives suitable habitats to higher elevations, species ranges are predicted to follow. However, observed range shifts have been surprisingly variable, with most species differing in rates of upward shift and others failing to shift at all. Disturbances such as fires could play an important role in accelerating range shifts by facilitating recruitment in newly suitable habitats (leading edges) and removing adults from areas no longer suited for regeneration (trailing edges). To date, empirical evidence that fires interact with climate change to mediate elevational range shifts is scarce. Resurveying historical plots in areas that experienced climate change and fire disturbance between surveys provides an exciting opportunity to fill this gap. To investigate whether species have tended to shift upslope and if shifts depend on fires, we resurveyed historical vegetation plots in North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA, an area that has experienced warming, drying, and multiple fires since the original surveys in 1983. We quantified range shifts by synthesizing across two lines of evidence: (1) displacement at range edges and the median elevation of species occurrences, and (2) support for the inclusion of interactions among time, fire and elevation in models of species presence with elevation. Among species that experienced fire since the original survey, a plurality expanded into new habitats at their upper edge. In contrast, a plurality of species not experiencing fire showed no evidence of shifts, with the remainder exhibiting responses that were variable in magnitude and direction. Our results suggest that fires can facilitate recruitment at leading edges, while species in areas free of disturbance are more likely to experience stasis.

Integrating learning into animal range dynamics under rapid human-induced environmental change

Human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) is creating environments deviating considerably from natural habitats in which species evolved. Concurrently, climate warming is pushing species' climatic envelopes to geographic regions that offer novel ecological conditions. The persistence of species is likely affected by the interplay between the degree of ecological novelty and phenotypic plasticity, which in turn may shape an organism's range-shifting ability. Current modelling approaches that forecast animal ranges are characterized by a static representation of the relationship between habitat use and fitness, which may bias predictions under conditions imposed by HIREC. We argue that accounting for dynamic species-resource relationships can increase the ecological realism of range shift predictions. Our rationale builds on the concepts of ecological fitting, the process whereby individuals form successful novel biotic associations based on the suite of traits they carry at the time of encountering the novel condition, and behavioural plasticity, in particular learning. These concepts have revolutionized our view on fitness in novel ecological settings, and the way these processes may influence species ranges under HIREC. We have integrated them into a model of range expansion as a conceptual proof of principle highlighting the potentially substantial role of learning ability in range shifts under HIREC.

Global terrestrial invasions: Where naturalised birds, mammals, and plants might spread next and what affects this process

More species live outside their native range than at any point in human history. Yet, there is little understanding of the geographic regions that will be threatened if these species continue to spread, nor of whether they will spread. We predict the world's terrestrial regions to which 833 naturalised plants, birds, and mammals are most imminently likely to spread, and investigate what factors have hastened or slowed their spread to date. There is huge potential for further spread of naturalised birds in North America, mammals in Eastern Europe, and plants in North America, Eastern Europe, and Australia. Introduction history, dispersal, and the spatial distribution of suitable areas are more important predictors of species spread than traits corresponding to habitat usage or biotic interactions. Natural dispersal has driven spread in birds more than in plants. Whether these taxa continue to spread more widely depends partially on connectivity of suitable environments. Plants show the clearest invasion lag, and the putative importance of human transportation indicates opportunities to slow their spread. Despite strong predictive effects, questions remain, particularly why so many birds in North America do not occupy climatically suitable areas close to their existing ranges.

Sustained mangrove reproduction despite major turnover in pollinator community composition at expanding range edge

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

How well plants reproduce near their geographic range edge can determine whether distributions will shift in response to changing climate. Reproduction at the range edge can be limiting if pollinator scarcity leads to pollen limitation, or if abiotic stressors affect allocation to reproduction. For many animal-pollinated plants with expanding ranges, the mechanisms by which they have overcome these barriers are poorly understood.

METHODS

In this study, we examined plant-pollinator interactions hypothesized to impact reproduction of the black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, which is expanding northward in coastal Florida, USA. We monitored insects visiting A. germinans populations varying in proximity to the geographic range edge, measured the pollen loads of the most common insect taxa and pollen receipt by A. germinans stigmas, and quantified flower and propagule production.

KEY RESULTS

We found that despite an 84 % decline in median floral visits by insects at northernmost versus southernmost sites, range-edge pollen receipt remained high. Notably, local floral visitor assemblages exhibited substantial turnover along the study's latitudinal gradient, with large-bodied bees and hover flies increasingly common at northern sites. We also observed elevated flower production in northern populations and higher per capita reproductive output at the range edge. Furthermore, mean propagule mass in northern populations was 18 % larger than that from the southernmost populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal no erosion of fecundity in A. germinans populations at range limits, allowing rapid expansion of mangrove cover in the region. These results also illustrate that substantial turnover in the assemblage of flower-visiting insects can occur at an expanding range edge without altering pollen receipt.

Mapping marine benthic biological traits to facilitate future sustainable development

Escalating societal demands placed on the seabed mean there has never been such a pressing need to align our understanding of the relationship between the physical impact of anthropogenic activities (e.g., installation of wind turbines, demersal fishing) and the structure and function of the seabed assemblages. However, spatial differences in benthic assemblages based on empirical data are currently not adequately incorporated into decision-making processes regarding future licensable activities or wider marine spatial planning frameworks. This study demonstrates that, through harnessing a Big Data approach, large-scale, continuous coverage maps revealing differences in biological traits expressions of benthic assemblages can be produced. We present independent maps based on a suite of response traits (depicting differences in responses to natural or anthropogenically induced change) and effects traits (reflecting different functional potential), although maps derived using single traits or combinations of a range of traits are possible. Models predicting variations in response traits expression provide greater confidence than those predicting effects traits. We discuss how such maps may be used to assist in the decision-making process for the licensing of anthropogenic activities and as part of marine spatial planning approaches. The confidence in such maps to reflect spatial variations in marine benthic trait expression may, in the future, inherently be improved through (1) the inclusion of more empirical macrofaunal assemblage field data; (2) an improved knowledge of marine benthic taxa trait expression; and (3) a greater understanding of the traits responsible for determining a taxon's response to an anthropogenic pressure and a taxon's functional potential.

Anthropogenic Influence on Moth Populations: A Comparative Study in Southern Sweden

As moths are vital components of ecosystems and serve as important bioindicators, understanding the dynamics of their communities and the factors influencing these dynamics, such as anthropogenic impacts, is crucial to understand the ecological processes. Our study focuses on two provinces in southern Sweden, Västergötland and Småland, where we used province records from 1974 to 2019 in combination with light traps (in 2020) to record the presence and abundance of moth species, subsequently assessing species traits to determine potential associations with their presence in anthropogenically modified landscapes. This study design provides a unique opportunity to assess temporal changes in moth communities and their responses to shifts in environmental conditions, including anthropogenic impacts. Across the Västergötland and Småland provinces in Sweden, we recorded 776 moth taxa belonging to fourteen different taxonomic families of mainly Macroheterocera. We captured 44% and 28% of the total moth species known from these provinces in our traps in Borås (Västergötland) and Kalmar (Småland), respectively. In 2020, the species richness and abundance were higher in Borås than in Kalmar, while the Shannon and Simpson diversity indices revealed a higher species diversity in Kalmar. Between 1974 and 2019, the colonisation rates of the provinces increased faster in Småland. Ninety-three species were found to have colonised these provinces since 1974, showing that species richness increased over the study period. We reveal significant associations between the probability of a species being present in the traps and distinct traits compared to a provincial species pool. Traits over-represented in the traps included species with a high variation in colour patterns, generalist habitat preferences, extended flight periods, lower host plant specificity, and overwintering primarily as eggs. Our findings underscore the ongoing ecological filtering that favours certain species-specific traits. This study sheds light on the roles of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in shaping moth biodiversity, offers key insights into the ecological processes involved, and can guide future conservation efforts.

Thermophilisation of communities differs between land plant lineages, land use types and elevation

Bryophytes provide key ecosystem services at the global scale such as carbon storage and primary production in resource limited habitats, but compared to vascular plants knowledge on how these organisms face recent climate warming is fragmentary. This is particularly critical because bryophytes differ fundamentally from vascular plants in their ecophysiological and biological characteristics, so that community alterations most likely have different dynamics. In a comparative approach, we analysed thermophilisation of bryophyte and vascular plant communities in 1146 permanent plots distributed along an elevational gradient of nearly 3.000 m in Switzerland (Central Europe) that were visited in 5-years intervals between 2001 and 2021. We estimated thermophilisation from changes in unweighted mean temperature indicator values of species, compared it to expected thermophilisation rates given the shift of isotherms and addressed differences between the two lineages, major land use types (managed grasslands, forests, unmanaged open areas), life strategy types (long- and short-lived species) and in elevation. Thermophilisation of bryophyte communities was on average 2.1 times higher than of vascular plant communities and at high elevations it approximated the expected rate given the shift of isotherms. Thermophilisation of both, bryophyte and vascular plant communities was not driven by a loss of cryophilic species but by an increase in thermophilic and mesophilic species, indicating an in-filling process. Furthermore, our data show that thermophilisation is higher in managed grasslands than in forests. We suggest that the higher responsiveness of bryophytes compared to vascular plants depends on their poikilohydry and dispersal capacity and that lower thermophilisation of forests communities is related to the buffering effect of microclimatic conditions in the interior of forests. Our study emphasises the heterogeneity of climate warming effects on plants because response dynamics differ between taxonomic groups as well as between land use types and along elevational gradients.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Genetic footprints of a rapid and large-scale range expansion: the case of cyclic common vole in Spain

In the Anthropocene, many species are rapidly shifting their ranges in response to human-driven habitat modifications. Studying patterns and genetic signatures of range shifts helps to understand how species cope with environmental disturbances and predict future shifts in the face of global environmental change. We investigated the genetic signature of a contemporary wide-range expansion observed in the Iberian common vole Microtus arvalis asturianus shortly after a colonization event. We used mtDNA and microsatellite data to investigate patterns of genetic diversity, structure, demography, and gene flow across 57 localities covering the historical range of the species and the newly colonized area. The results showed a genetic footprint more compatible with a true range expansion (i.e. the colonization of previously unoccupied areas), than with a model of "colonization from within" (i.e. local expansions from small, unnoticed populations). Genetic diversity measures indicated that the source population was likely located at the NE of the historical range, with a declining gradient of genetic diversity towards the more recently invaded areas. At the expansion front, we observed the greatest gene flow and smallest pairwise differences between nearby localities. Both natural landscape features (rivers) and recent anthropogenic barriers (roads, railways) explained a large proportion of genetic variance among populations and had a significant impact on the colonization pathways used by voles.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

A species-level trait dataset of bats in Europe and beyond

Knowledge of species' functional traits is essential for understanding biodiversity patterns, predicting the impacts of global environmental changes, and assessing the efficiency of conservation measures. Bats are major components of mammalian diversity and occupy a variety of ecological niches and geographic distributions. However, an extensive compilation of their functional traits and ecological attributes is still missing. Here we present EuroBaTrait 1.0, the most comprehensive and up-to-date trait dataset covering 47 European bat species. The dataset includes data on 118 traits including genetic composition, physiology, morphology, acoustic signature, climatic associations, foraging habitat, roost type, diet, spatial behaviour, life history, pathogens, phenology, and distribution. We compiled the bat trait data obtained from three main sources: (i) a systematic literature and dataset search, (ii) unpublished data from European bat experts, and (iii) observations from large-scale monitoring programs. EuroBaTrait is designed to provide an important data source for comparative and trait-based analyses at the species or community level. The dataset also exposes knowledge gaps in species, geographic and trait coverage, highlighting priorities for future data collection.

Species-specific traits mediate avian demographic responses under past climate change

Anticipating species' responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (N_e) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming.

A Comparison of Small Rodent Assemblages after a 20 Year Interval in the Alps

Human-induced environmental alterations in the Alps may importantly affect small mammal species, but evidence in this sense is limited. We live-trapped small rodents in the Central-Eastern Italian Alps in three close-by habitat types (rocky scree, alpine grassland, and heath) at 2100 m a.s.l. during summer-fall, in 1997 and 2016. We compared small rodent assemblages through a Redundancy Detrended Analysis (RDA). In both surveys, we detected two specialist species, i.e., the common vole (Microtus arvalis) and the snow vole (Chionomys nivalis), and, unexpectedly, the forest generalist bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In 1997, grassland was mainly occupied by the common vole, while the bank vole and the snow vole were sympatric in the other habitats. In 2016, the snow vole was detected only in the scree, while other species did not show distribution changes. We discuss a series of hypotheses that might have driven the differences observed across decades, among which is a species-specific response to abiotic and biotic environmental alterations, with the alpine habitat specialist moving out of sub-optimal habitats. We encourage further research on this topic, e.g., via long-term longitudinal studies.

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

BACKGROUND

Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence.

METHODS

We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts?

REVIEW FINDINGS

We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Drivers of strong isolation and small effective population size at a leading range edge of a widespread plant

Climate change has influenced species distributions worldwide with upward elevational shifts observed in many systems. Leading range edge populations, like those at upper elevation limits, are crucial for climate change responses but can exhibit low genetic diversity due to founder effects, isolation, or limited outbreeding. These factors can hamper local adaptation at range limits. Using the widespread herb, Argentina anserina, we measured ecological attributes (population density on the landscape, area of population occupancy, and plant and flower density) spanning a 1000 m elevation gradient, with high elevation populations at the range limit. We measured vegetative clonal potential in the greenhouse for populations spanning the gradient. We combined these data with a ddRAD-seq dataset to test the hypotheses that high elevation populations would exhibit ecological and genomic signatures of leading range edge populations. We found that population density on the landscape declined towards the high elevation limit, as is expected towards range edges. However, plant density was elevated within edge populations. In the greenhouse, high elevation plants exhibited stronger clonal potential than low elevation plants, likely explaining increased plant density in the field. Phylogeographic analysis supported more recent colonization of high elevation populations which were also more genetically isolated, had more extreme heterozygote excess and had smaller effective population size than low. Results support that colonization of high elevations was likely accompanied by increased asexuality, contributing to a decline in effective population size. Despite high plant density in leading edge populations, their small effective size, isolation and clonality could constrain adaptive potential.

Rapid upwards spread of non-native plants in mountains across continents

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems.

Changes in Community Composition and Functional Traits of Bumblebees in an Alpine Ecosystem Relate to Climate Warming

Climate warming has been observed as the main cause of changes in diversity, community composition, and spatial distribution of different plant and invertebrate species. Due to even stronger warming compared to the global mean, bumblebees in alpine ecosystems are particularly exposed to these changes. To investigate the effects of climate warming, we sampled bumblebees along an elevational gradient, compared the records with data from 1935 and 1936, and related our results to climate models. We found that bumblebee community composition differed significantly between sampling periods and that increasing temperatures in spring were the most plausible factor explaining these range shifts. In addition, species diversity estimates were significantly lower compared to historical records. The number of socio-parasitic species was significantly higher in the historical communities, while recent communities showed increases in climate generalists and forest species at lower elevations. Nevertheless, no significant changes in community-weighted means of a species temperature index (STI) or the number of cold-adapted species were detected, likely due to the historical data resolution. We conclude that the composition and functionality of bumblebee communities in the study area have been significantly affected by climate warming, with changes in land use and vegetation cover likely playing an additional important role.

What is the role of disturbance in catalyzing spatial shifts in forest composition and tree species biomass under climate change?

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts of tree species range and abundance (biomass). Abundance changes under climate change are likely to occur prior to a detectable range shift. Disturbances are expected to directly affect tree species abundance and composition, and could profoundly influence tree species spatial distribution within a geographical region. However, how multiple disturbance regimes will interact with changing climate to alter the spatial distribution of species abundance remains unclear. We simulated such forest demographic processes using a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) parameterized with forest inventory data in the northeastern United States. Our study incorporated climate change under a high-emission future and disturbance regimes varying with gradients of intensities and spatial extents. The results suggest that disturbances catalyze changes in tree species abundance and composition under a changing climate, but the effects of disturbances differ by intensity and extent. Moderate disturbances and large extent disturbances have limited effects, while high-intensity disturbances accelerate changes by removing cohorts of mid- and late-successional species, creating opportunities for early-successional species. High-intensity disturbances result in the northern movement of early-successional species and the southern movement of late-successional species abundances. Our study is among the first to systematically investigate how disturbance extent and intensity interact to determine the spatial distribution of changes in species abundance and forest composition.

Large-scale spatial variability in urban tolerance of birds

Quantifying intraspecific and interspecific trait variability is critical to our understanding of biogeography, ecology and conservation. But quantifying such variability and understanding the importance of intraspecific and interspecific variability remain challenging. This is especially true of large geographic scales as this is where the differences between intraspecific and interspecific variability are likely to be greatest. Our goal is to address this research gap using broad-scale citizen science data to quantify intraspecific variability and compare it with interspecific variability, using the example of bird responses to urbanization across the continental United States. Using more than 100 million observations, we quantified urban tolerance for 338 species within randomly sampled spatial regions and then calculated the standard deviation of each species' urban tolerance. We found that species' spatial variability in urban tolerance (i.e. standard deviation) was largely explained by the variability of urban cover throughout a species' range (R²  = 0.70). Variability in urban tolerance was greater in species that were more tolerant of urban cover (i.e. the average urban tolerance throughout their range), suggesting that generalist life histories are better suited to adapt to novel anthropogenic environments. Overall, species differences explained most of the variability in urban tolerance across spatial regions. Together, our results indicate that (1) intraspecific variability is largely predicted by local environmental variability in urban cover at a large spatial scale and (2) interspecific variability is greater than intraspecific variability, supporting the common use of mean values (i.e. collapsing observations across a species' range) when assessing species-environment relationships. Further studies, across different taxa, traits and species-environment relationships are needed to test the role of intraspecific variability, but nevertheless, we recommend that when possible, ecologists should avoid using discrete categories to classify species in how they respond to the environment.

Predicting the Habitat Suitability and Distribution of Two Species of Mound-Building Termites in Nigeria Using Bioclimatic and Vegetation Variables

Temperature is an important factor determining the abundance, distribution and diversity of termite species. Thus, termites are affected by changing climate and have to adopt different means of surviving in order to avoid extinction. Using termite occurrence data, bioclimatic variables and vegetation cover, we modelled and predicted the current and future habitat suitability for mound-building termites in Nigeria. Of the 19 bioclimatic variables and the vegetation index (NDVI) tested, only six were significant and eligible as predictors of habitat suitability for the mound-building termites Macrotermes subhyalinus and M. bellicosus. Under current climatic conditions (2022), the northwest, northeast and central regions are highly suitable for M. subhyalinus, while the distribution of M. bellicosus decreased in the North West, North East and in the Central region. However, regarding habitat suitability for the future (2050), there was a predicted range expansion into suitable areas for the two termite species. The increase in temperature due to global warming has an effect which can either result in migration or sometimes extinction of termite species within an ecosystem. Here, we have predicted habitat suitability for the two mound-building termite species under current and future climatic scenarios, and how the change in climatic variables would lead to an expansion in their range across Nigeria.

Small mammals in a mountain ecosystem: the effect of topographic, micrometeorological, and biological correlates on their community structure

An increasing number of studies have investigated spatial and temporal patterns in species richness and assemblage composition in mountain ecosystems along altitudinal gradients. Small mammals have been successfully used as indicators of environmental health and as proxies of biodiversity. However, information about the composition and distribution of species assemblages in the mosaic of habitat and rocky landform types at a high altitude is still lacking for most of the mountain regions. Through the use of live traps and camera trapping, we described the small mammal community living above the treeline of the Western Dolomites (Italian Alps), investigating the species richness, abundance of individuals and community composition in relation to topographic, micrometeorological, mesohabitat, and biological correlates. A total of five species and 50 individuals were sampled, analysed, and released. At the extremes of the analysed altitudinal range (i.e. 1900 vs 2900 m a.s.l.), community composition was completely different and species richness was related to elevation, steepness, and vegetation cover. At the same time, the taxonomic distinctness of ground-dwelling arthropods (namely carabid beetles and spiders), a proxy of habitat complexity, showed higher values in areas with a greater small mammal species richness. We found a positive effect of steepness and rocky landform type “carsism” on the number of captured individuals, showing the importance of the availability of shelters and underground burrows for the sampled species. As a confirmation of the altitudinal shift for these species in relation to the ongoing climate change, we detected a negative impact of sub-surface ground temperature on small mammal abundance during the monitoring period. In conclusion, small mammals represent an excellent model for understanding the evolutionary processes of ecosystems, population dynamics under changing environmental conditions, and habitat vulnerabilities.

Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes?

There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a "conductance" metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965-1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the "conductance" of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities.

Eco-evolutionary causes and consequences of rarity in plants: a meta-analysis

Species differ dramatically in their prevalence in the natural world, with many species characterized as rare due to restricted geographic distribution, low local abundance and/or habitat specialization. We investigated the ecoevolutionary causes and consequences of rarity with phylogenetically controlled metaanalyses of population genetic diversity, fitness and functional traits in rare and common congeneric plant species. Our syntheses included 252 rare species and 267 common congeners reported in 153 peer-reviewed articles published from 1978 to 2020 and one manuscript in press. Rare species have reduced population genetic diversity, depressed fitness and smaller reproductive structures than common congeners. Rare species also could suffer from inbreeding depression and reduced fertilization efficiency. By limiting their capacity to adapt and migrate, these characteristics could influence contemporary patterns of rarity and increase the susceptibility of rare species to rapid environmental change. We recommend that future studies present more nuanced data on the extent of rarity in focal species, expose rare and common species to ecologically relevant treatments, including reciprocal transplants, and conduct quantitative genetic and population genomic analyses across a greater array of systems. This research could elucidate the processes that contribute to rarity and generate robust predictions of extinction risks under global change.

Resilience of Avian Communities to Urbanization and Climate Change: an Integrative Review

The concept of ecological resilience is widely used to assess how species and ecosystems respond to external stressors but is applied infrequently at the level of the community or to chronic, ongoing disturbances. In this review, we first discuss the concept of ecological resilience and methods for quantifying resilience in ecological studies. We then synthesize existing evidence for the resilience of avian communities to climate change and urbanization, two chronic disturbances that are driving global biodiversity loss, and conclude with recommendations for future directions. We only briefly discuss the theoretical framework behind ecological resilience and species-specific responses to these two major disturbances, because numerous reviews already exist on these topics. Current research suggests strong heterogeneity in the responses and resilience of bird communities to urbanization and climate change, although community disassembly and reassembly is high following both disturbances. To advance our understanding of community resilience to these disturbances, we recommend five areas of future study (1) the development of a standardized, comprehensive community resilience index that incorporates both adaptive capacity and measures of functional diversity, (2) measurement/modeling of both community resistance and recovery in response to disturbance, (3) multi-scale and/or multi-taxa studies that include three-way interactions between plants, animals, and climate, (4) studies that incorporate interactions between disturbances, and (5) increased understanding of interactions between ecological resilience and socio-ecological dynamics. Advancement in these areas will enhance our ability to predict and respond to the rapidly accelerating effects of climate change and urbanization.

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Morchella is a kind of precious edible, medicinal fungi with a series of important effects, including anti-tumor and anti-oxidation effects. Based on the data of 18 environmental variables and the distribution sites of wild Morchella species, this study used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the changes in the geographic distribution of Morchella species in different historical periods (the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), current, 2050s and 2070s). The results revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic curves of different periods were all relatively high (>0.83), indicating that the results of the maximum entropy model are good. Species distribution modeling showed that the major factors influencing the geographical distribution of Morchella species were the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), elevation, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and the annual mean temperature (Bio1). The simulation of geographic distribution suggested that the current suitable habitat of Morchella was mainly located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and other provinces in China. Compared with current times, the suitable area in Northwest and Northeast China decreased in the LGM and MH periods. As for the future periods, the suitable habitats all increased under the different scenarios compared with those in contemporary times, showing a trend of expansion to Northeast and Northwest China. These results could provide a theoretical basis for the protection, rational exploitation and utilization of wild Morchella resources under scenarios of climate change.

Can the Life History Trait Divergence of Two Extremes of a Cold-Water Genus Distribution Offer Evidence for Their Vulnerability to Sea Warming?

Cold- and deep-water species such as Molva species show low resilience to anthropogenic pressures, and they become particularly vulnerable at the warm edges of their distribution. In this study, the poorly documented Mediterranean ling (Molva macrophthalma) population from the northwestern Mediterranean Sea was analysed. This area is considered a cul-de-sac in a sea-warming hotspot, where M. macrophthalma shows a low population health status and is experiencing a climate-related reduction in abundance. Several life-history traits (length at maturity, reproductive cycle, fecundity style, oocyte recruitment pattern, and breeding strategy) are here described for the first time to evaluate the reproductive performance (oocyte diameter and production) in relation to the fish condition status (the HSI and relative condition index). Additionally, the results are compared with those of a population of a similar species, the blue ling (Molva dypterygia), inhabiting the cool edge of its distribution, hypothesised to have a higher condition status. Our results indicate that M. macrophthalma is a capital breeder with restricted secondary growth recruitment and group-synchronous oocyte development. In relative terms, the stressed southern M. macrophthalma exhibited a worse condition, a lower investment in reproduction, a smaller size at maturity, larger but fewer primary growth oocytes, and a smaller size-standardized production of secondary growth oocytes than the northern M. dypterygia. Significant differences in the secondary growth oocyte recruitment were also found. These findings reinforce the environment’s role in shaping the reproductive potential and condition status. Altogether, this study suggests high sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures for both species, and, especially for Mediterranean ling, it shows the importance of introducing monitoring and conservation measures to ensure the sustainability of its populations.

Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change

A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss.

Body size and food-web interactions mediate species range shifts under warming

Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food-web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food-webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food-web interactions and allometry may overestimate species' tendency to track climate change.

Short-lived species move uphill faster under climate change

Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds' abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species' traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species' longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

On the macroecological significance of eco-evolutionary dynamics: the range shift-niche breadth hypothesis

Global correlations of range size and niche breadth, and their relationship to latitude, have long intrigued ecologists and biogeographers. Study of these patterns has given rise to a number of hypothesized ecological and evolutionary processes purported to shape biogeographic outcomes, including the climate variability hypothesis, oscillation hypothesis, ecological opportunity, competitive release and taxon cycles. Here, I introduce the alternative range shift-niche breadth hypothesis, which posits that broader niches and larger range sizes are jointly determined under eco-evolutionary processes unique to expanding ranges, which may or may not be adaptive, but which co-shape observed latitudinal gradients in niche breadth and range size during periods of widespread range expansion. I formulate this hypothesis in comparison against previous hypotheses, exploring how each relies on equilibrium versus non-equilibrium evolutionary processes, faces differing issues of definition and scale, and results in alternative predictions for comparative risk and resilience of global ecosystems. Such differences highlight that accurate understanding of process is critical when applying macroecological insight to biodiversity forecasting. Furthermore, past conceptual emphasis on a central role of local adaptation under equilibrium conditions may have obscured a ubiquitous role of non-equilibrium evolutionary processes for generating many important, regional and global macroecological patterns. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Landscape genomics of the streamside salamander: Implications for species management in the face of environmental change

Understanding spatial patterns of genetic differentiation and local adaptation is critical in a period of rapid environmental change. Climate change and anthropogenic development have led to population declines and shifting geographic distributions in numerous species. The streamside salamander, Ambystoma barbouri, is an endemic amphibian with a small geographic range that predominantly inhabits small, ephemeral streams. As A. barbouri is listed as near-threatened by the IUCN, we describe range-wide patterns of genetic differentiation and adaptation to assess the species' potential to respond to environmental change. We use outlier scans and genetic-environment association analyses to identify genomic variation putatively underlying local adaptation across the species' geographic range. We find evidence for adaptation with a polygenic architecture and a set of candidate SNPs that identify genes putatively contributing to local adaptation. Our results build on earlier work that suggests that some A. barbouri populations are locally adapted despite evidence for asymmetric gene flow between the range core and periphery. Taken together, the body of work describing the evolutionary genetics of range limits in A. barbouri suggests that the species may be unlikely to respond naturally to environmental challenges through a range shift or in situ adaptation. We suggest that management efforts such as assisted migration may be necessary in future.