Ecological thresholds at the savanna-forest boundary: how plant traits, resources and fire govern the distribution of tropical biomes

Tree species hyperdominance and rarity in the South American Cerrado

The South American Cerrado, the largest savanna of the Americas and the world's most tree-biodiverse, is critically endangered, with just 8% protected and more than half deforested. However, the extent of its tree diversity and abundance remains poorly quantified. Using a unique biome-wide eco-floristic dataset with 222 one-hectare plots, we estimate the Cerrado has ~1605 tree species and has extreme hyperdominance, with fewer than 2% (30 species) accounting for half of all trees. A single family, Vochysiaceae, represents 17% of all trees, and the most abundant species, Qualea parviflora, accounts for 1 in 14 trees. In contrast, 63% of the species are rare, with fewer than 100 trees across all plots. Remote sensing and spatial modelling suggest the Cerrado has lost 24 billion trees since 1985, equivalent to three times the Earth's human population. We estimate up to 800 tree species may remain undetected in Cerrado ecosystems and could face extinction in a few decades due to deforestation. This hyperdominance parallels patterns in Amazonian forests and highlights risks both biomes face for species loss due to fragmentation, deforestation, and land-use change. Our findings highlight the Cerrado's critical but undervalued role in global biodiversity, its vulnerabilities, and the urgent need for conservation to avoid irreversible species and biome loss.

Fire management benefits tree growth and survival in the Brazilian savanna

The Cerrado has evolved with natural fires. However, human activities have altered fire regimes; in protected areas (PA), fire has been suppressed for years. Fire exclusion increases fuel loads busting the risk of wildfires, especially during the late-dry season. An Integrated Fire Management (IFM) program was implemented in Cerrado's PAs in 2014 to reduce wildfires. However, there is limited information about the effects of management burns on vegetation. Considering the demands of PA managers, we compared woody plant responses to management burns, wildfires, and fire exclusion for 5 years and assessed factors determining these responses, including fire behavior and pre-fire plant size. For this, we selected seven sites in open savanna areas of Northern Brazil. In each site, three 50 × 100m plots were assigned to the following treatments: mid-dry season biennial fires, similar to management burns; late-dry season biennial fires, similar to wildfires; and total fire protection. From 2015 to 2018, we assessed changes in vegetation structure by calculating basal area and stem density and evaluated the plant damages and responses to each treatment. Mid-dry season fires resulted in less topkill, more resprouting, and higher rates of non-damaged plants than late-dry season fires. This difference was influenced by flame height and by pre-fire stem diameter. Mid-dry season fires led to minimal changes in vegetation structure. However, continuous vegetation monitoring is essential in managed areas to detect changes and should be part of a fire management program.

Pausas J, Paula S. Fire-driven alternative vegetation states across the temperate Andes

The theory of alternative stable states, as applied to terrestrial ecosystems, suggests that under common environmental conditions, different vegetation types may remain stable by contrasting feedback processes. In the temperate Andes, forests and shrublands of Nothofagus species have been proposed as fire-driven alternative vegetation states (AVS): while high fire frequency would promote the stability of pyrophilic shrublands, the absence of fires would stabilize pyrophobic forests. However, to confirm this hypothesis, it must be demonstrated that fire-vegetation feedbacks occur under the same environmental conditions. We aimed to (i) identify to what extent Nothofagus forests and shrublands occur in the same environmental conditions across the temperate Andes and (ii) to understand how the fire regime explains the distribution patterns of these states. We used global environmental databases and local fire data to (i) estimate the environmental niche overlap of forests and shrublands and (ii) to obtain an indicator of the fire activity at micro-basin scale (percentage of the cumulative burned area (PBA); the higher the PBA the higher the fire activity). The environmental niches of forests and shrublands overlapped by more than 70%. Shrublands become more frequent as PBA increases, suggesting that stabilizing fire-vegetation feedbacks promote their persistence. Our results provide broad-scale evidence of fire-driven AVS beyond the tropics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.

Relative fire-proneness of land cover types in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Fires are increasingly affecting tropical biomes, where landscape-fire interactions remain understudied. We investigate the fire-proneness-the likelihood of a land use or land cover (LULC) type burning more or less than expected based on availability-in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF). This biodiversity hotspot is increasingly affected by fires due to human activities and climate change. Using a selection ratio-based approach, we analyzed fire-LULC interactions in 40,869 fires over a 35-year period (1987-2022) across various ecoregions in the AF. Our findings revealed that secondary forests, forest areas that have regrown after major disturbances, burned 61% more than expected by chance, whereas old-growth forests, native forests that have developed over very long periods, burned 57% less than expected, highlighting a nearly inverse relationship in their fire-proneness. Interestingly, our data indicate that pastures in the AF are less prone to fire than expected, despite being considered among the land uses that burn the most in Brazil. Other LULCs showed variable fire-proneness, with some differences between ecoregions. Over time, the fire-proneness of secondary forests decreased, likely due to forest aging and changes in land management practices. We emphasize the necessity for tailored fire management strategies that address the unique vulnerabilities of secondary forests, particularly in the context of ongoing restoration efforts aimed at increasing native forests. Effective measures, including the implementation of 'fire-smart management' practices and enhancing the perceived value of secondary forests among local communities, are crucial for mitigating fire risks. Integrating these strategies with incentive-based approaches can bolster fire prevention, ensuring the long-term success of restoration programs. Our study provides a framework for understanding fire-landscape dynamics in tropical forests and offers actionable insights for practitioners working to safeguard these biomes from the escalating threat of wildfires.

Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover

Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire's role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6-39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8-36.8%), heat stress (10.5-23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3-22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2-3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3-5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions.

Non-adaptedness and vulnerability to climate change threaten Plathymenia trees (Fabaceae) from the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest

Climate change is increasing species extinction risk. The ability of a species to cope with climate change can be quantified by projecting distribution models and by estimating the risk of non-adaptedness using genomic data. The Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest in Tropical South America are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to evaluate the ecological and genomic vulnerability of Plathymenia taxa and its lineages, P. reticulata, a Cerrado species, and P. foliolosa, an Atlantic Forest species, to determine their current and future habitat suitability and the mismatch between current local adaptation with the expected climate changes. The species distribution models predicted a high range loss for the Plathymenia lineages. The genotype-environment association analyses showed that the Plathymenia lineages have populations adapted to different precipitation and temperature seasonality regimes. The genomic offset analyses predict a mismatch between local adaptations and future climate for the Plathymenia indicating a high risk of non-adaptedness, especially in the pessimistic scenario. Our results show an elevated extinction risk of the species due to climate change. We suggest reevaluating the extinction risk and management of the Plathymenia species separately based on their differences in vulnerability to climate change.

Post-fire temporal dynamics of plant-pollinator communities in a tropical savanna

Fire is a major ecological and evolutionary factor promoting biodiversity and maintaining functioning of naturally fire-prone ecosystems. In tropical savannas, plant communities show a set of fire-adapted traits and both flowering and pollination services have the potential to rapidly regenerate after fire, but fire-suppression policies may disrupt this adaptability following potential woody encroachment. Understanding the effects of fire on plant-pollinator interactions are required to advance conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We evaluated the dynamics of plant community assemblage, flower availability, composition of flower functional traits associated with attractiveness to pollinators, and activity and diversity of insect pollinator guilds over ten post-fire stand ages along a 14-year chronosequence in a naturally burned region in the Cerrado, a megadiverse savanna in Brazil. We expect to find a high resilience of plant-pollinator communities and a steady decline in the successional recovery as time-since-fire proceeds. Along the post-fire chronosequence, vegetation was dominated by subshrubs with tubular, white, and nectar flowers arranged in inflorescences, while bees were the predominant pollinators. Plant assemblage and flower number showed an initial significant increase but monotonically declined after 7-9 years after fire. Accordingly, pollinator richness and abundance significantly reached highest peaks in interim periods and a steady decline over time. In contrast, the frequency of community-wide plant-life form, flower functional traits, and pollinator diversity remained unaltered over the post-fire chronosequence. We added compelling evidence of a high post-fire resilience of plant-pollinator communities and further understanding of how fire-suppression policies may affect pollination in the Cerrado.

Interactions between soil and other environmental variables modulate forest expansion and ecotone dynamics in humid savannas of Central Africa

Forest expansion into savanna is a pervasive phenomenon in West and Central Africa, warranting comparative studies under diverse environmental conditions. We collected vegetation data from the woody and grassy components within 73 plots of 0.16 ha distributed along a successional gradient from humid savanna to forest in Central Africa. We associated spatially collocated edaphic parameters and fire frequency derived from remote sensing to investigate their combined influence on the vegetation. Soil texture was more influential in shaping savanna structure and species distribution than soil fertility, with clay-rich soils promoting higher grass productivity and fire frequency. Savanna featuring woody aboveground biomass surpassing 40 Mg ha-1 could escape the grass-fire feedback loop, by depressing grass biomass below 4 Mg ha-1. This thicker woody layer also favoured the establishment of fire-tolerant forest pioneers, which synergically contributed to the expansion of forests. Conversely, savannas below this fire suppression threshold sustained a balance between trees and grasses through the grass-fire feedback mechanism. This hysteresis loop, particularly pronounced on clayey soils, suggests that the contrast between grassy savanna and young forests might represent alternative ecosystem states, although savannas with low woody biomass remained vulnerable to forest edge encroachment.

Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna-forest domain

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest-savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna-forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.

Fire facilitates ground layer plant diversity in a Miombo ecosystem

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the response of ground layer plant communities to fire in Miombo ecosystems, which is a global blind spot of ecological understanding. We aimed: (1) to assess the impact of three experimentally imposed fire treatments on ground layer species composition and compare it with patterns observed for trees; and (2) to analyse the effect of fire treatments on species richness to assess how responses differ among plant functional groups.

METHODS

At a 60-year-long fire experiment in Zambia, we quantified the richness and diversity of ground layer plants in terms of taxa and functional groups across three experimental fire treatments of late dry-season fire, early dry-season fire and fire exclusion. Data were collected in five repeat surveys from the onset of the wet season to the early dry season.

KEY RESULTS

Of the 140 ground layer species recorded across the three treatments, fire-maintained treatments contributed most of the richness and diversity, with the least number of unique species found in the no-fire treatment. The early-fire treatment was more similar in composition to the no-fire treatment than to the late-fire treatment. C4 grass and geoxyle richness were highest in the late-fire treatment, and there were no shared sedge species between the late-fire and other treatments. At a plot level, the average richness in the late-fire treatment was twice that of the fire exclusion treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in fire seasonality and intensity supports diversity of a unique flora by providing a diversity of local environments. African ecosystems face rapid expansion of land- and fire-management schemes for carbon offsetting and sequestration. We demonstrate that analyses of the impacts of such schemes predicated on the tree flora alone are highly likely to underestimate impacts on biodiversity. A research priority must be a new understanding of the Miombo ground layer flora integrated into policy and land management.

Bark thickness and related parameters of tree species along an elevation transect leading to treeline in Central Himalaya

Since treelines are generally fire-free, the trees growing there are expected to have thin bark, unless adaptation to other factors than fire results in the selection of a thick bark. Related to this is also higher proportional investment in inner bark in such an environment of infrequent fire. This study has considered stem bark thickness both in absolute and relative terms and also in the frame of the composition of outer and inner bark components of 20 tree species along an elevation transect (2100-3300 m) in high ranges of the Central Himalaya leading to treelines. The study species varied from 2.1 to 16.2 mm for total bark thickness and from 1.2 to 18.85% for relative bark thickness. The average absolute total bark thickness across the tree species decreased with elevation from forest to treeline, both when trees of all diameters (10.2 ± 0.84 mm for forest and 6.9 ± 1.79 mm for treeline) and those of the same stem diameter range (18-20 m) were compared (9.10 ± 1.30 mm for forest species and 6.38 ± 1.31 mm for treeline species). Nevertheless, the treeline bark thickness was similar to those of several forest communities considered to have comparatively thick bark. Like many other biological structures, bark carries out multiple functions; therefore, its thickness could be affected by more than one environmental factor. We suggest that the requirement of mechanical resistance to the snowfall, rainstorms, wind and adaptation to a high sunlight and UV radiations or storage of water, and non-structural carbohydrates could affect total, outer and inner bark thickness. Studies on these aspects in similar ecosystems may help understand the multi-functional attributes of the bark. For trees of comparable sizes (trees with 18-20 cm diameter at breast height) treeline species also had lower relative bark thickness (< 6%) than trees of forest below it (> 7%). The median proportion of inner bark of the total bark (70.5%) for our 20 species was more than that for savannas (~ 50%), exposed to frequent fire regime and similar to those of in cool sclerophyllous forests and temperate rain forests where fire return time is > 100 years. However, it was lower than the inner bark proportion reported for tropical rain forests. To conclude, in spite of a fire-free environment, the Himalayan treeline and adjoining forest species show mixed bark characters.

Blocking then stinging as a case of two-step evolution of defensive cage architectures in herbivore-driven ecosystems

Dense branching and spines are common features of plant species in ecosystems with high mammalian herbivory pressure. While dense branching and spines can inhibit herbivory independently, when combined, they form a powerful defensive cage architecture. However, how cage architecture evolved under mammalian pressure has remained unexplored. Here we show how dense branching and spines emerged during the age of mammalian radiation in the Combretaceae family and diversified in herbivore-driven ecosystems in the tropics. Phylogenetic comparative methods revealed that modern plant architectural strategies defending against large mammals evolved via a stepwise process. First, dense branching emerged under intermediate herbivory pressure, followed by the acquisition of spines that supported higher speciation rates under high herbivory pressure. Our study highlights the adaptive value of dense branching as part of a herbivore defence strategy and identifies large mammal herbivory as a major selective force shaping the whole plant architecture of woody plants.

Vegetation-fire feedbacks increase subtropical wildfire risk in scrubland and reduce it in forests

Climate dictates wildfire activity around the world. But East and Southeast Asia are an apparent exception as fire-activity variation there is unrelated to climatic variables. In subtropical China, fire activity decreased by 80% between 2003 and 2020 amid increased fire risks globally. Here, we assessed the fire regime, vegetation structure, fuel flammability and their interactions across subtropical Hubei, China. We show that tree basal area (TBA) and fuel flammability explained 60% of fire-frequency variance. Fire frequency and fuel flammability, in turn, explained 90% of TBA variance. These results reveal a novel system of scrubland-forest stabilized by vegetation-fire feedbacks. Frequent fires promote the persistence of derelict scrubland through positive vegetation-fire feedbacks; in forest, vegetation-fire feedbacks are negative and suppress fire. Thus, we attribute the decrease in wildfire activity to reforestation programs that concurrently increase forest coverage and foster negative vegetation-fire feedbacks that suppress wildfire.

Genomic signatures of ecological divergence between savanna and forest populations of a Neotropical tree

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In eastern Neotropical South America, the Cerrado, a large savanna vegetation, and the Atlantic Forest harbour high biodiversity levels, and their habitats are rather different from each other. The biomes have intrinsic evolutionary relationships, with high lineage exchange that can be attributed, in part, to a large contact zone between them. The genomic study of ecotypes, i.e. populations adapted to divergent habitats, can be a model to study the genomic signatures of ecological divergence. Here, we investigated two ecotypes of the tree Plathymenia reticulata, one from the Cerrado and the other from the Atlantic Forest, which have a hybrid zone in the ecotonal zone of Atlantic Forest-Cerrado.

METHODS

The ecotypes were sampled in the two biomes and their ecotone. The evolutionary history of the divergence of the species was analysed with double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing. The genetic structure and the genotypic composition of the hybrid zone were determined. Genotype-association analyses were performed, and the loci under putative selection and their functions were investigated.

KEY RESULTS

High divergence between the two ecotypes was found, and only early-generation hybrids were found in the hybrid zone, suggesting a partial reproductive barrier. Ancient introgression between the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest was not detected. The soil and climate were associated with genetic divergence in Plathymenia ecotypes and outlier loci were found to be associated with the stress response, with stomatal and root development and with reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

The high genomic, ecological and morphophysiological divergence between ecotypes, coupled with partial reproductive isolation, indicate that the ecotypes represent two species and should be managed as different evolutionary lineages. We advise that the forest species should be re-evaluated and restated as vulnerable. Our results provide insights into the genomic mechanisms underlying the diversification of species across savanna and forest habitats and the evolutionary forces acting in the species diversification in the Neotropics.

Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesized mechanism for such bistability is feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches. Theoretical models have largely implemented this mechanism implicitly, by assuming a threshold dependence of fire spread on flammable vegetation. Here, we show how the nonlinear dynamics and bistability emerge spontaneously, without assuming equations or thresholds for fire spread. We find that the forest geometry causes the nonlinearity that induces bistability. We demonstrate this in three steps. First, we model forest and fire as interacting contagion processes on grass patches, showing that spatial structure emerges due to two counteracting effects on the forest perimeter: forest expansion by dispersal and forest erosion by fires originating in adjacent grassland. Then, we derive a landscape-scale balance equation in which these two effects link forest geometry and dynamics: Forest expands proportionally to its perimeter, while it shrinks proportionally to its perimeter weighted by adjacent grassland area. Finally, we show that these perimeter quantities introduce nonlinearity in our balance equation and lead to bistability. Relying on the link between structure and dynamics, we propose a forest resilience indicator that could be used for targeted conservation or restoration.

Mean exit times as global measure of resilience of tropical forest systems under climatic disturbances-Analytical and numerical results

Both remotely sensed distribution of tree cover and models suggest three alternative stable vegetation states in the tropics: forest, savanna, and treeless states. Environmental fluctuation could cause critical transitions from the forest to the savanna state and quantifying the resilience of a given vegetation state is, therefore, crucial. While previous work has focused mostly on local stability concepts, we investigate here the mean exit time from a given basin of attraction, with partially absorbing and reflecting boundaries, as a global resilience measure. We provide detailed investigations using an established model for tropical tree cover with multistable precipitation regimes. We find that higher precipitation or weaker noise increases the mean exit time of the forest state and, thus, its resilience. Upon investigating the transition times from the forest state to other tree cover states, we find that in the bistable precipitation regime, the size of environmental fluctuations has a greater impact on the transition probabilities from the forest state compared to precipitation.

Fire Responses Shape Plant Communities in a Minimal Model for Fire Ecosystems across the World

AbstractAcross plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new conceptual mechanistic model that includes plant competition, stochastic fires, and fire-vegetation feedback. Considering a single standing plant functional type, we observed that highly flammable and slowly colonizing plants can persist only when they have a strong fire response, while fast colonizing and less flammable plants can display a larger range of fire responses. At the community level, the fire response of the strongest competitor determines the existence of alternative ecological states (i.e., different plant communities) under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, when the strongest competitor had a very strong fire response, such as in Mediterranean forests, only one ecological state could be achieved. Conversely, when the strongest competitor was poorly fire adapted, alternative ecological states emerged-for example, between tropical humid savannas and forests or between different types of boreal forests. These findings underline the importance of including the plant fire response when modeling fire ecosystems, for example, to predict the vegetation response to invasive species or to climate change.

Limited climatic space for alternative ecosystem states in Africa

One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations suggesting that climate cannot reliably discriminate forest and savanna ecosystem types. Using a novel phytoclimatic transform, which estimates the ability of climate to support different types of plants, we show that climatic suitability for evergreen trees and C4 grasses are sufficient to discriminate between forest and savanna in Africa. Our findings reassert the dominant influence of climate on ecosystems and suggest that the role of feedbacks causing alternative ecosystem states is less prevalent than has been suggested.

Bark production of generalist and specialist species across savannas and forests in the Cerrado

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Bark allows species to survive fire, protecting their inner tissues and allowing new branches to resprout from aerial buds. Thus, bark production is likely to be selected with aerial bud protection in fire-prone ecosystems. By considering the coexistence of fire-prone and fire-free ecosystems, in addition to the different impacts of flames on different growth forms, in this study we tested whether: (1) species from areas with higher fire frequencies have a faster bark production; (2) bark growth rate differs between trees and shrubs; (3) generalists adjust their bark production according to their environment (fire-prone or fire-free ecosystems); and (4) fast bark production results in better aerial bud protection.

METHODS

We sampled two different types of forests and savannas in the Cerrado and registered every woody individual with height between 1.5 and 3 m tall (directly exposed to the flames). For the 123 species registered, we sampled three different individuals in each vegetation type where the species occurred to assess their bark production and aerial bud protection. We then checked, for each species, their preferred habitat (savanna and forest specialists or generalists) and their predominant growth form.

KEY RESULTS

A minimal threshold of 0.13 mm per growth unit of bark production differentiated woody communities from savannas and forests. Shrubs and trees did not differ in terms of bark growth rate, despite being exposed to the flames in a different manner. Generalist species in savannas were able to produce bark above the threshold. However, when these species were in forests they produced bark below the threshold. Finally, a higher bark growth rate accounted for a better aerial bud protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Generalist species are likely to be capable of displaying plasticity in their bark production, which could be important for their success in contrasting ecosystems. The relationship between aerial bud protection and bark growth rate suggests that bark production plays an important role in protecting the dormant buds, in addition to being selected in fire-prone ecosystems.

Solutions to fire and shade: resprouting, growing tall and the origin of Eurasian temperate broadleaved forest

Tree species of Eurasian broadleaved forest possess two divergent trait syndromes with contrasting patterns of resource allocation adapted to different selection environments: short-stature basal resprouters that divert resources to a bud bank adapted to frequent and severe disturbances such as fire and herbivory, and tall trees that delay reproduction by investing in rapid height growth to escape shading. Drawing on theory developed in savanna ecosystems, we propose a conceptual framework showing that the possession of contrasting trait syndromes is essential for the persistence of broadleaved trees in an open ecosystem that burns. Consistent with this hypothesis, trees of modern Eurasian broadleaved forest bear a suite of traits that are adaptive to surface and crown-fire regimes. We contend that limited opportunities in grassland restricts recruitment to disturbance-free refugia, and en masse establishment creates a wooded environment where shade limits the growth of light-demanding savanna plants. Rapid height growth, which involves investment in structural support and the switch from a multi-stemmed to a monopodial growth form, is adaptive in this shaded environment. Although clustering reduces surface fuel loads, these establishment nuclei are vulnerable to high-intensity crown fires. The lethal effects of canopy fire are avoided by seasonal leaf shedding, and aerial resprouting enhances rapid post-fire recovery of photosynthetic capacity. While these woody formations satisfy the structural definition of forest, their constituents are clearly derived from savanna. Contrasting trait syndromes thus represent the shift from consumer to resource regulation in savanna ecosystems. Consistent with global trends, the diversification of most contemporary broadleaved taxa coincided with the spread of grasslands, a surge in fire activity and a decline in wooded ecosystems in the late Miocene-Pliocene. Recognition that Eurasian broadleaved forest has savanna origins and persists as an alternative state with adjacent grassy ecosystems has far-reaching management implications in accordance with functional rather than structural criteria. Shade is a severe constraint to the regeneration and growth of both woody and herbaceous growth forms in consumer-regulated ecosystems. However, these ecosystems are highly resilient to disturbance, an essential process that maintains diversity especially among the species-rich herbaceous component that is vulnerable to shading when consumer behaviour is altered.

Consistent physiological, ecological and evolutionary effects of fire regime on conservative leaf economics strategies in plant communities

The functional response of plant communities to disturbance is hypothesised to be controlled by changes in environmental conditions and evolutionary history of species within the community. However, separating these influences using direct manipulations of repeated disturbances within ecosystems is rare. We evaluated how 41 years of manipulated fire affected plant leaf economics by sampling 89 plant species across a savanna-forest ecotone. Greater fire frequencies created a high-light and low-nitrogen environment, with more diverse communities that contained denser leaves and lower foliar nitrogen content. Strong trait-fire coupling resulted from the combination of significant intraspecific trait-fire correlations being in the same direction as interspecific trait differences arising through the turnover in functional composition along the fire-frequency gradient. Turnover among specific clades helped explain trait-fire trends, but traits were relatively labile. Overall, repeated burning led to reinforcing selective pressures that produced diverse plant communities dominated by conservative resource-use strategies and slow soil nitrogen cycling.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Forest restoration in a time of fire: perspectives from tall, wet eucalypt forests subject to stand-replacing wildfires

Wildfires have the potential to add considerably to the already significant challenge of achieving effective forest restoration in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. While fire can sometimes promote forest restoration (e.g. by creating otherwise rare, early successional habitats), it can thwart it in others (e.g. by depleting key patch types and stand structures). Here we outline key considerations in facilitating restoration of some tall wet temperate forest ecosystems and some boreal forest ecosystems where the typical fire regime is rare high-severity stand-replacing fire. Some of these ecosystems are experiencing altered fire regimes such as increased fire extent, severity and/or frequency. Achieving good restoration outcomes in such ecosystems demands understanding fire regimes and their impacts on vegetation and other elements of biodiversity and then selecting ecosystem-appropriate management interventions. Potential actions range from doing nothing (as the ecosystem already maintains full post-fire regenerative capacity) to interventions prior to a conflagration like prescribed burning to limit the risks of high-severity fire, excluding activities that impair post-fire recovery (e.g. post-fire logging), and artificial seeding where natural regeneration fails. The most ecologically effective actions will be ecosystem-specific and context-specific and informed by knowledge of the ecosystem in question (such as plant life-history attributes) and inter-relationships with attributes like vegetation condition at the time it is burnt (e.g. young versus old forest). This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

How climate, topography, soils, herbivores, and fire control forest-grassland coexistence in the Eurasian forest-steppe

Recent advances in ecology and biogeography demonstrate the importance of fire and large herbivores - and challenge the primacy of climate - to our understanding of the distribution, stability, and antiquity of forests and grasslands. Among grassland ecologists, particularly those working in savannas of the seasonally dry tropics, an emerging fire-herbivore paradigm is generally accepted to explain grass dominance in climates and on soils that would otherwise permit development of closed-canopy forests. By contrast, adherents of the climate-soil paradigm, particularly foresters working in the humid tropics or temperate latitudes, tend to view fire and herbivores as disturbances, often human-caused, which damage forests and reset succession. Towards integration of these two paradigms, we developed a series of conceptual models to explain the existence of an extensive temperate forest-grassland mosaic that occurs within a 4.7 million km² belt spanning from central Europe through eastern Asia. The Eurasian forest-steppe is reminiscent of many regions globally where forests and grasslands occur side-by-side with stark boundaries. Our conceptual models illustrate that if mean climate was the only factor, forests should dominate in humid continental regions and grasslands should prevail in semi-arid regions, but that extensive mosaics would not occur. By contrast, conceptual models that also integrate climate variability, soils, topography, herbivores, and fire depict how these factors collectively expand suitable conditions for forests and grasslands, such that grasslands may occur in more humid regions and forests in more arid regions than predicted by mean climate alone. Furthermore, boundaries between forests and grasslands are reinforced by vegetation-fire, vegetation-herbivore, and vegetation-microclimate feedbacks, which limit tree establishment in grasslands and promote tree survival in forests. Such feedbacks suggest that forests and grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are governed by ecological dynamics that are similar to those hypothesised to maintain boundaries between tropical forests and savannas. Unfortunately, the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are sometimes misinterpreted as deforested or otherwise degraded vegetation. In fact, the grasslands of this region provide valuable ecosystem services, support a high diversity of plants and animals, and offer critical habitat for endangered large herbivores. We suggest that a better understanding of the fundamental ecological controls that permit forest-grassland coexistence could help us prioritise conservation and restoration of the Eurasian forest-steppe for biodiversity, climate adaptation, and pastoral livelihoods. Currently, these goals are being undermined by tree-planting campaigns that view the open grasslands as opportunities for afforestation. Improved understanding of the interactive roles of climate variability, soils, topography, fire, and herbivores will help scientists and policymakers recognise the antiquity of the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe.

Altered cyclone-fire interactions are changing ecosystems

Global change is altering interactions between ecological disturbances. We review interactions between tropical cyclones and fires that affect woody biomes in many islands and coastal areas. Cyclone-induced damage to trees can increase fuel loads on the ground and dryness in the understory, which increases the likelihood, intensity, and area of subsequent fires. In forest biomes, cyclone-fire interactions may initiate a grass-fire cycle and establish stable open-canopy biomes. In cyclone-prone regions, frequent cyclone-enhanced fires may generate and maintain stable open-canopy biomes (e.g., savannas and woodlands). We discuss how global change is transforming fire and cyclone regimes, extensively altering cyclone-fire interactions. These altered cyclone-fire interactions are shifting biomes away from historical states and causing loss of biodiversity.

Heatwaves and fire in Pantanal: Historical and future perspectives from CORDEX-CORE

The Pantanal biome, at the confluence of Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, is the largest continental wetland on the planet and an invaluable reserve of biodiversity. The exceptional 2020 fire season in Pantanal drew particular attention due to the severe wildfires and the catastrophic natural and socio-economic impacts witnessed within the biome. So far, little progress has been made in order to better understand the influence of climate extremes on fire occurrence in Pantanal. Here, we evaluate how extreme hot conditions, through heatwave events, are related to the occurrence and the exacerbation of fires in this region. A historical analysis using a statistical regression model found that heatwaves during the dry season explained 82% of the interannual variability of burned area during the fire season. In a future perspective, an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations assuming different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), reveal a significant increasing trend in heatwave occurrence over Pantanal. Compared to historical levels, the RCP2.6 scenario leads to more than a doubling in the Pantanal heatwave incidence during the dry season by the second half of the 21st century, followed by a plateauing. Alternatively, RCP8.5 projects a steady increase of heatwave incidence until the end of the century, pointing to a very severe scenario in which heatwave conditions would be observed nearly over all the Pantanal area and during practically all the days of the dry season. Accordingly, favorable conditions for fire spread and consequent large burned areas are expected to occur more often in the future, posing a dramatic short-term threat to the ecosystem if no preservation action is undertaken.

Canopy plant composition and structure of Cape subtropical dune thicket are predicted by the levels of fire exposure

Background

The subtropical dune thicket (hereafter "dune thicket") of the Cape Floristic Region experiences a wide range of fire exposure throughout the landscape, unlike other dry rainforest formations that rarely experience fire. We sought to determine how fire exposure influences species composition and the architectural composition of dune thicket.

Methods

We used multivariate analysis and diversity indices based on cover abundance of species to describe the species composition, architectural guild composition and structure of dune thicket sites subject to different levels of fire exposure, namely low (fire return interval of >100 years), moderate (fire return interval of 50-100 years), and high (fire return interval of 10-50 years).

Results

The diversity, cover abundance and architectural guild cover abundance of dune thicket canopy species were strongly influenced by the level of fire exposure such that each level was associated with a well-circumscribed vegetation unit. Dune thickets subject to low fire exposure comprises a floristically distinct, low forest characterized by shrubs with one-to-few upright stems (ca. 4-8 m tall) and a relatively small canopy spread (vertical growers). Of the 25 species in this unit, 40% were restricted to it. Dune thickets subject to moderate fire exposure had the highest abundance of lateral spreaders, which are multi-stemmed (ca. 3-6 m tall) species with a large canopy spread and lower stature than vertical growers. None of the 17 species found in this unit was restricted to it. Dune thickets subject to high fire exposure had the highest abundance of hedge-forming shrubs, these being low shrubs (ca. 0.6-1.4 m tall), with numerous shoots arising from an extensive system of below-ground stems. Of the 20 species in this unit, 40% were restricted to it. Multivariate analysis identified three floristic units corresponding to the three fire exposure regimes. Compositional structure, in terms of species and architectural guilds, was most distinctive for dune thickets subject to high and low fire exposure, while the dune thicket subject to moderate fire exposure showed greatest compositional overlap with the other units.

Conclusion

Fire exposure profoundly influenced the composition and structure of dune thicket canopy species in the Cape Floristic Region. In the prolonged absence of fire, the thicket is invaded by vertical-growing species that overtop and outcompete the multi-stemmed, laterally-spreading shrubs that dominate this community. Regular exposure to fire selects for traits that enable thicket species to rapidly compete for canopy cover post-fire via the prolific production of resprouts from basal buds below- and above-ground. The trade-off is that plant height is constrained, as proportionately more resources are allocated to below-ground biomass.

Temporal and spatial patterns of fire activity in three biomes of Brazil

The trade-off between conservation of natural resources and agribusiness expansion is a constant challenge in Brazil. The fires used to promote agricultural expansion increased in the last decades. While studies linking annual fire occurrence and rainfall seasonality are common, the relationship between fires, land use, and land cover remains understudied. Here, we investigated the frequency of the fires and performed a trend analysis for monthly, seasonal, and annual fires in three different biomes: Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. We used burned area and integrated models in distinct scales (interannual, intraseasonal, and monthly) using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The best fitting was found for Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distribution at all three biomes from the several PDFs tested. We found the most fire in the Pantanal (wetlands), followed by Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Atlantic Forest (Semideciduous Forest). Our findings indicated that land use and land cover trends changed over the years. There was a strong correlation between fire and agricultural areas, with increasing trends pointing to land conversion to agricultural areas in all biomes. The high probability of fire indicates that expanding agricultural areas through the conversion of natural biomes impacts several natural ecosystems, transforming land cover and land use. This land conversion is promoting more fires each year.

Detection of social-ecological drivers and impact thresholds of ecological degradation and ecological restoration in the last three decades

Special consideration should be given to the differential coupling relationships between natural and anthropogenic factors on ecological degradation and ecological restoration. However, few studies have focused on how to quantify the contribution rate of social-ecological interactions to vegetation growth and determine the impact thresholds of vegetation coverage at the county scale. Notably, it is more conducive to evaluating the impact of anthropogenic factors on vegetation coverage by integrating ecological land use policy into the research framework. This study combined remote sensing technology, as well as the Geo-detector model and elasticity coefficient to identify the key factors affecting ecological degradation and ecological restoration and quantitatively determine the impact thresholds from the aspects of climate change, topography, hydrological condition, human disturbance, and ecological land use policy. The results showed that ecosystems shifted from severe degradation (1990-2000) to restoration (2000-2010) and then to slight degradation (2010-2020). Meteorological factors and topographic factors revealed a stronger impact on ecological degradation and ecological restoration before the implementation of large-scale ecological engineering, and then they were most affected by ecological land use policy. In addition, the ecological thresholds of some factors were found in this study. Specifically, when average annual precipitation and slope reached the threshold of 523 mm and 5° respectively under ecological degradation, they had the greatest influence on vegetation coverage. Under ecological degradation and ecological restoration, the threshold of altitude was 1500 mm, and the threshold of drainage density was 10 and 14, respectively. The information from this study is expected to enhance the practical value of ecological research and provide an important reference for ecological standards and sustainable environmental management.

Encroachment diminishes herbaceous plant diversity in grassy ecosystems worldwide

Woody encroachment is ubiquitous in grassy ecosystems worldwide, but its global impacts on the diversity of herbaceous plants that characterise and define these ecosystems remain unquantified. The pervasiveness of encroachment is relatively easily observed via remote sensing, but its impacts on plant diversity and richness below the canopy can only be observed via field-based studies. Via a meta-analysis of 42 field studies across tropical to temperate grassy ecosystems, we quantified how encroachment altered herbaceous species richness, and the richness of forbs, C₃ graminoids and C₄ graminoids. Across studies, the natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) of herbaceous species richness ranged from -3.33 to 0.34 with 87% of encroached ecosystems negatively impacted. Assessment of the extent of encroachment, duration of encroachment, mean annual rainfall, latitude, and continent demonstrated that only extent of encroachment had relevance in the data (univariate model including a random effect of study explained 45.4% of variance). The global weighted mean lnRR of species richness decreased from -0.245 at <33% of woody cover increase, to -0.562 at 33%-66%, and to -0.962 at >66%. Continued encroachment results in substantial loss of herbaceous diversity at medium and high extents, with a loss of richness that is not replaced. Although all functional groups are significantly negatively impacted by encroachment, forb richness is relatively more sensitive than graminoid richness, and C₄ graminoid richness relatively more than C₃ graminoid richness. Although no geographic or climatic correlates had relevance in the data, encroachment as an emergent product of global change coalesces to decrease ground layer light availability, lead to loss of fire and grazers, and alter hydrology and soils. Encroachment is accelerating and grassy ecosystems require urgent attention to determine critical woody cover thresholds that facilitate diverse and resilient grassy ecosystems.

Encroachment diminishes herbaceous plant diversity in grassy ecosystems worldwide

Woody encroachment is ubiquitous in grassy ecosystems worldwide, but its global impacts on the diversity of herbaceous plants that characterise and define these ecosystems remain unquantified. The pervasiveness of encroachment is relatively easily observed via remote sensing, but its impacts on plant diversity and richness below the canopy can only be observed via field-based studies. Via a meta-analysis of 42 field studies across tropical to temperate grassy ecosystems, we quantified how encroachment altered herbaceous species richness, and the richness of forbs, C₃ graminoids and C₄ graminoids. Across studies, the natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) of herbaceous species richness ranged from -3.33 to 0.34 with 87% of encroached ecosystems negatively impacted. Assessment of the extent of encroachment, duration of encroachment, mean annual rainfall, latitude, and continent demonstrated that only extent of encroachment had relevance in the data (univariate model including a random effect of study explained 45.4% of variance). The global weighted mean lnRR of species richness decreased from -0.245 at <33% of woody cover increase, to -0.562 at 33%-66%, and to -0.962 at >66%. Continued encroachment results in substantial loss of herbaceous diversity at medium and high extents, with a loss of richness that is not replaced. Although all functional groups are significantly negatively impacted by encroachment, forb richness is relatively more sensitive than graminoid richness, and C₄ graminoid richness relatively more than C₃ graminoid richness. Although no geographic or climatic correlates had relevance in the data, encroachment as an emergent product of global change coalesces to decrease ground layer light availability, lead to loss of fire and grazers, and alter hydrology and soils. Encroachment is accelerating and grassy ecosystems require urgent attention to determine critical woody cover thresholds that facilitate diverse and resilient grassy ecosystems.

Diversification and trait evolution in New Zealand woody lineages across changing biomes

Diversification of woody plant lineages in New Zealand has unfolded in complex physiographic, climatic, and environmental contexts. Many tree and shrub lineages have existed in New Zealand since the late Cenozoic when Forest was the dominant biome, subsequently diversifying (or continuing to diversify) during the Pliocene/Pleistocene as Open (below treeline) and Alpine biomes emerged. We examine the links between biomes occupied, traits, and diversification. In particular, whether traits are phylogenetically conserved or ecologically constrained and their relationship to biomes occupied. We focus on Melicytus, Myrsine and Pseudopanax which occur across Forest, Open, and Alpine biomes. Our approach combines measured traits and modelled niche traits of extant species to examine the importance of biome occupancy and biome shifts on trait evolution in these lineages. Our results demonstrate trait values are filtered by biomes in these lineages and can predict biomes occupied. However, few biome shifts were associated with trait evolution, typically only biome shifts into extreme environments (Alpine) involved trait innovations. In addition to biomes, trait evolution can also be influenced by species age, trait lability and broad climatic change. Integrating functional traits in a phylogenetic framework can identify how evolutionary and ecological features create modern biogeographic patterns in New Zealand.

First-year Acacia seedlings are anisohydric "water-spenders" but differ in their rates of water use

PREMISE

First-year seedlings (FYS) of tree species may be a critical demographic bottleneck in semi-arid, seasonally dry ecosystems such as savannas. Given the highly variable water availability and potentially strong FYS-grass competition for water, FYS water-use strategies may play a crucial role in FYS establishment in savannas and, ultimately, in tree-grass competition and coexistence.

METHODS

We examined drought responses in FYS of two tree species that are dominant on opposite ends of an aridity gradient in Serengeti, Acacia (=Vachellia) tortilis and A. robusta. In a glasshouse experiment, gas exchange and whole-plant hydraulic conductance (K_plant ) were measured as soil water potential (Ψ_soil ) declined. Trajectory of the Ψ_leaf /Ψ_soil relationship during drought elucidated the degree of iso/anisohydry.

RESULTS

Both species were strongly anisohydric "water-spenders," allowing rapid wet-season C gain after pulses of moisture availability. Despite being equally vulnerable to declines in K_plant under severe drought, they differed in their rates of water use. Acacia tortilis, which occurs in the more arid regions, initially had greater K_max , transpiration (E), and photosynthesis (A_net ) than A. robusta.

CONCLUSIONS

This work demonstrates an important mechanism of FYS establishment in savannas: Rather than investing in drought tolerance, savanna FYS maximize gas exchange during wet periods at the expense of desiccation during dry seasons. FYS establishment appears dependent on high C uptake during the pulses of water availability that characterize habitats dominated by these species. This study increases our understanding of species-scale plant ecophysiology and ecosystem-scale patterns of tree-grass coexistence.

Functional Diversity in Woody Organs of Tropical Dry Forests and Implications for Restoration

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) represent one of the most diverse and, at the same time, most threatened ecosystems on earth. Restoration of TDFs is thus crucial but is hindered by a limited understanding of the functional diversity (FD) of original communities. We examine the FD of TDFs based on wood (vessel diameter and wood density) and bark traits (total, inner, and outer bark thicknesses) measured on ~500 species from 24 plant communities and compare this diversity with that of seven other major vegetation types. Along with other seasonally dry sites, TDFs had the highest FD, as indicated by the widest ranges, highest variances, and largest trait hypervolumes. Warm temperatures and seasonal drought seem to drive diverse ecological strategies in these ecosystems, which include a continuum from deciduous species with low-density wood, thick bark, and wide vessels to evergreen species with high-density wood, thin bark, and narrow vessels. The very high FD of TDFs represents a challenge to restoring the likely widest trait ranges of any habitat on earth. Understanding this diversity is essential for monitoring successional changes in minimal intervention restoration and guiding species selection for resilient restoration plantings in the context of climate change.

Feedbacks in ecology and evolution

Ecology and evolutionary biology have focused on how organisms fit the environment. Less attention has been given to the idea that organisms can also modify their environment, and that these modifications can feed back to the organism, thus providing a key factor for their persistence and evolution. There are at least three independent lines of evidence emphasizing these biological feedback processes at different scales: niche construction (population scale); alternative biome states (community scale); and the Gaia hypothesis (planetary scale). These feedback processes make us rethink traditional concepts like niche and adaptation. We argue that organism-environment feedbacks must become a regular part of ecological thinking, especially now that the Earth is quickly changing.

Fire promotes functional plant diversity and modifies soil carbon dynamics in tropical savanna

Fire is an evolutionary environmental filter in tropical savanna ecosystems altering functional diversity and associated C pools in the biosphere and fluxes between the atmosphere and biosphere. Therefore, alterations in fire regimes (e.g. fire exclusion) will strongly influence ecosystem processes and associated dynamics. In those ecosystems C dynamics and functions are underestimated by the fire-induced offset between C output and input. To determine how fire shapes ecosystem C pools and fluxes in an open savanna across recently burned and fire excluded areas, we measured the following metrics: (I) plant diversity including taxonomic (i.e. richness, evenness) and plant functional diversity (i.e. functional diversity, functional richness, functional dispersion and community weighted means); (II) structure (i.e. above- and below-ground biomass, litter accumulation); and (III) functions related to C balance (i.e. net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange (NEE), ecosystem transpiration (ET), soil respiration (soil CO₂ efflux), ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) and total soil organic C (SOC). We found that fire promoted aboveground live and belowground biomass, including belowground organs, coarse and fine root biomass and contributed to higher biomass allocation belowground. Fire also increased both functional diversity and dispersion. NEE and total SOC were higher in burned plots compared to fire-excluded plots whereas soil respiration recorded lower values in burned areas. Both ET and eWUE were not affected by fire. Fire strongly favored functional diversity, fine root and belowground organ biomass in piecewise SEM models but the role of both functional diversity and ecosystem structure to mediate the effect of fire on ecosystem functions remain unclear. Fire regime will impact C balance, and fire exclusion may lead to lower C input in open savanna ecosystems.

Holocene Paleoecology in the Neotropical Savannas of Northern South America (Llanos of the Orinoquia Ecoregion, Colombia and Venezuela): What Do We Know and on What Should We Focus in the Future?

We provide an overview of the Holocene paleoecology of the Llanos ecoregion. A region that captured the attention of researchers for more than 200 years, as it exhibits a high heterogeneity in landscapes and vegetation, where savanna and forest mosaics exist. Located in an area influenced by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), it provides a unique area for understanding long-term dynamics of climate, vegetation and human history. Twelve locations have been paleoecologically studied, showing general vegetation and climate changes trends since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). During LGM savanna herbs were dominant, indicating dry climatic conditions. The transition of the Holocene was characterized by a slight increase in forest taxa, suggesting a transition to a wetter climate. Between ∼10,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP, grasslands were abundant, and few forest taxa, including Mauritia were also common but rare, pointing to a warm and humid climate. After ∼7,000 cal yr BP, the gallery forest started to expand, suggesting a change to a wetter climate. Mauritia palms increased markedly after 4,000–3,000 cal yr BP, possibly driven by higher mean annual precipitation and/or longer wet season. The start of human occupation remains unclear, but it has been linked to the time of expansion of Mauritia, a period in which fires, possibly of anthropogenic origin, were more frequent. To understand patterns of change in these ecosystems, it is necessary to improve the chronological control of the sediments in future studies and increase the resolution and proxies used to reconstruct their history.

Resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem carbon stocks to fire-regime change in Alaskan tundra

Fire disturbance has increased in some tundra ecosystems due to anthropogenic climate change, with important ramifications for terrestrial carbon cycling. Assessment of the potential impact of fire-regime change on tundra carbon stocks requires long-term perspectives because tundra fires have been rare historically. Here we integrated the process-based Dynamic Organic Soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with paleo-fire records to evaluate the responses of tundra carbon stocks to changes in fire return interval (FRI). Paleorecords reveal that mean FRIs of tundra ecosystems in Alaska ranged from centennial to millennial timescales (200-6000 years) during the late Quaternary, but projected FRIs by 2100 decrease to a few hundred years to several decades (70-660 years). Our simulations indicate threshold effects of changing FRIs on tundra carbon stocks. Shortening FRI from 5000 to 1000 years results in minimal carbon release (<5%) from Alaskan tundra ecosystems. Rapid carbon stock loss occurs when FRI declines below 800 years trigger sustained mobilization of ancient carbon stocks from permafrost soils. However, substantial spatial heterogeneity in the resilience/sensitivity of tundra carbon stocks to FRI change exists, largely attributable to vegetation types. We identified the carbon stocks in shrub tundra as the most vulnerable to decreasing FRI because shrub tundra stores a large share of carbon in combustible biomass and organic soils. Moreover, our results suggest that ecosystems characterized by large carbon stocks and relatively long FRIs (e.g. Brooks Foothills) may transition towards hotspots of permafrost carbon emission as a response to crossing FRI thresholds in the coming decades. These findings combined imply that fire disturbance may play an increasingly important role in future carbon balance of tundra ecosystems, but the net outcome may be strongly modulated by vegetation composition.

Increasing instability of a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem

Climate change threatens to destabilize ecological communities, potentially moving them from persistently occupied "basins of attraction" to different states. Increasing variation in key ecological processes can signal impending state shifts in ecosystems. In a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem consisting of three distinct regions spread across 260 km of the Oregon coast, we show that annually cleared sites are characterized by communities that exhibit signs of increasing destabilization (loss of resilience) over the past decade despite persistent community states. In all cases, recovery rates slowed and became more variable over time. The conditions underlying these shifts appear to be external to the system, with thermal disruptions (e.g., marine heat waves, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and shifts in ocean currents (e.g., upwelling) being the likely proximate drivers. Although this iconic ecosystem has long appeared resistant to stress, the evidence suggests that subtle destabilization has occurred over at least the last decade.