Poleward migration of tropical corals inhibited by future trends of seawater temperature and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation

Poleward range expansion of marine organisms is commonly attributed to anthropogenic ocean warming. However, the extent to which a single species can migrate poleward remains unclear. In this study, we used molecular data to examine the current distribution of the Pocillopora damicornis species complex in Taiwan waters and applied niche modeling to predict its potential range through the end of the 21st Century. The P. damicornis species complex is widespread across shallow, tropical and subtropical waters of the Indo-Pacific regions. Our results revealed that populations from subtropical nonreefal coral communities are P. damicornis, whose native geographical ranges are approximately between 23°N and 35°N. In contrast, those from tropical reefs are P. acuta. Our analysis of 50 environmental data layers demonstrated that the concentrations of CaCO3 polymorphs had the greatest contributions to the distributions of the two species. Future projections under intermediate shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and very high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions showed that while sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms would shift northwards, saturation isolines of two CaCO3 polymorphs, calcite (Ωcal) and aragonite (Ωarag), would shift southwards by 2100. Subsequent predictions of future suitable habitats under those conditions indicated that distinct delimitation of geographical ranges for the two species would persist, and neither would extend beyond its native geographical zones, indicating that tropical Taiwan waters are the northern limit for P. acuta. In contrast, subtropical waters are the southern limit for P. damicornis. We concluded that the decline in CaCO3 saturation would make high latitudes less inhabitable, which could be one of the boundary elements that limit poleward range expansion driven by rising SSTs and preserve the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) on Earth. Consequently, poleward migration of tropical reef corals to cope with warming oceans should be reevaluated.

ForCenS-LGM: a dataset of planktonic foraminifera species assemblage composition for the Last Glacial Maximum

Species assemblage composition of marine microfossils offers the possibility to investigate ecological and climatological change on time scales inaccessible using conventional observations. Planktonic foraminifera - calcareous zooplankton - have an excellent fossil record and are used extensively in palaeoecology and palaeoceanography. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19,000 - 23,000 years ago), the climate was in a radically different state. This period is therefore a key target to investigate climate and biodiversity under different conditions than today. Studying LGM climate and ecosystems indeed has a long history, yet the most recent global synthesis of planktonic foraminifera assemblage composition is now nearly two decades old. Here we present the ForCenS-LGM dataset with 2,365 species assemblage samples collected using standardised methods and with harmonised taxonomy. The data originate from marine sediments from 664 sites and present a more than 50% increase in coverage compared to previous work. The taxonomy is compatible with the most recent global core top dataset, enabling direct investigation of temporal changes in foraminifera biogeography and facilitating seawater temperature reconstructions.

Origination of the modern-style diversity gradient 15 million years ago

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a prevalent feature of modern ecosystems across diverse clades^1-4. Recognized for well over a century, the causal mechanisms for LDGs remain disputed, in part because numerous putative drivers simultaneously covary with latitude^1,3,5. The past provides the opportunity to disentangle LDG mechanisms because the relationships among biodiversity, latitude and possible causal factors have varied over time^6-9. Here we quantify the emergence of the LDG in planktonic foraminifera at high spatiotemporal resolution over the past 40 million years, finding that a modern-style gradient arose only 15 million years ago. Spatial and temporal models suggest that LDGs for planktonic foraminifera may be controlled by the physical structure of the water column. Steepening of the latitudinal temperature gradient over 15 million years ago, associated with an increased vertical temperature gradient at low latitudes, may have enhanced niche partitioning and provided more opportunities for speciation at low latitudes. Supporting this hypothesis, we find that higher rates of low-latitude speciation steepened the diversity gradient, consistent with spatiotemporal patterns of depth partitioning by planktonic foraminifera. Extirpation of species from high latitudes also strengthened the LDG, but this effect tended to be weaker than speciation. Our results provide a step change in understanding the evolution of marine LDGs over long timescales.

Late Cenozoic cooling restructured global marine plankton communities

The geographic ranges of marine organisms, including planktonic foraminifera¹, diatoms, dinoflagellates², copepods³ and fish⁴, are shifting polewards owing to anthropogenic climate change⁵. However, the extent to which species will move and whether these poleward range shifts represent precursor signals that lead to extinction is unclear⁶. Understanding the development of marine biodiversity patterns over geological time and the factors that influence them are key to contextualizing these current trends. The fossil record of the macroperforate planktonic foraminifera provides a rich and phylogenetically resolved dataset that provides unique opportunities for understanding marine biogeography dynamics and how species distributions have responded to ancient climate changes. Here we apply a bipartite network approach to quantify group diversity, latitudinal specialization and latitudinal equitability for planktonic foraminifera over the past eight million years using Triton, a recently developed high-resolution global dataset of planktonic foraminiferal occurrences⁷. The results depict a global, clade-wide shift towards the Equator in ecological and morphological community equitability over the past eight million years in response to temperature changes during the late Cenozoic bipolar ice sheet formation. Collectively, the Triton data indicate the presence of a latitudinal equitability gradient among planktonic foraminiferal functional groups which is coupled to the latitudinal biodiversity gradient only through the geologically recent past (the past two million years). Before this time, latitudinal equitability gradients indicate that higher latitudes promoted community equitability across ecological and morphological groups. Observed range shifts among marine planktonic microorganisms^1,2,8 in the recent and geological past suggest substantial poleward expansion of marine communities even under the most conservative future global warming scenarios.

Plankton response to global warming is characterized by non-uniform shifts in assemblage composition since the last ice age

Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.

Copepods as Indicators of Different Water Masses during the Northeast Monsoon Prevailing Period in the Northeast Taiwan

Simple Summary

How the origin and pathways of water masses can be traced by particular bioindicators remains an intriguing issue in biological oceanography. In the present zooplankton study focusing on copepods, calanoid copepodites were most abundant, with an average abundance of 774.24 ± 289.42 (inds. m⁻³) in the northeastern waters of Taiwan during the prevailing northeast monsoon, followed by the dominant copepod species Paracalanus aculeatus and Clausocalanus furcatus. According to hydrological parameters, the water masses were mainly derived from northeast monsoon surface waters, Kuroshio intrusion water, and mixed water masses. Indicator species were Temora turbinata, Calanopia elliptica, and Canthocalanus pauper in the northeast monsoon-derived water mass. Farranula concinna and Copilia mirabilis represented suitable indicators for the Kuroshio intrusion water mass in the research area. In the mixed water mass, the indicator species were Paracandacia truncata, Oncaea clevei, and P. aculeatus in the research area during the sampling campaign in late autumn.

Abstract

During this research, the average surface temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and pH were 24.65 ± 1.53 (°C), 34.21 ± 0.07 (PSU), 6.85 ± 0.18 (mg/L), and 8.36 ± 0.03, respectively. Based on these environmental parameters, stations were arranged into three groups. Group A represents stations located around Keelung Island with the relative highest average dissolved oxygen, lowest average temperature, and pH values. Instead, the lowest average dissolved oxygen and highest average temperature, salinity, and pH values were recorded at the offshore stations. Keelung Island area was charged by cold water masses, which were driven by the Northeast monsoon, and stations in group C were affected by the Kuroshio Current. Kueishan Island area was mainly affected by mixed water masses resulting from the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon-derived cold water. In this study, a total of 108 copepod species were identified, with an average abundance of 774.24 ± 289.42 (inds. m⁻³). Most species belong to the orders Calanoida and Poecilostomatoida, with an average relative abundance (RA) of 62.96% and 30.56%, respectively. Calanoid copepodites were the most dominant group, with a RA of 28.06%. This was followed by Paracalanus aculeatus, with a RA of 18.44%. The RA of Clausocalanus furcatus and Canthocalanus pauper was 4.80% and 3.59%, respectively. The dominant species P. aculeatus, C. pauper, Paracalanus parvus, and Temora turbinata were positively correlated with dissolved oxygen and negatively correlated with temperature in the surface waters. pH showed a negative correlation with P. parvus and T. turbinata, while the temperature was negatively correlated with these two dominant species. Indicator species were selected by an indicator value higher than 50%. Temora turbinata, Calanopia elliptica, C. pauper, Euchaeta concinna, Temora discaudata, Acartia pacifica, Macrosetella gracilis, Corycaeus speciosus, and P. parvus were considered as monsoonal cold water indicator species in Group A. Indicator copepod species for the Kuroshio Current were Farranula concinna, Copilia mirabilis, Candacia aethiopica, Corycaeus agilis, Farranula gibbula and Acrocalanus monachus in the study area. Paracandacia truncata, Oncaea clevei, P. aculeatus, and Centropages furcatus were considered suitable indicators for mixed water masses.

Using paleoecological data to inform decision making: A deep-time perspective

Latest climate models project conditions for the end of this century that are generally outside of the human experience. These future conditions affect the resilience and sustainability of ecosystems, alter biogeographic zones, and impact biodiversity. Deep-time records of paleoclimate provide insight into the climate system over millions of years and provide examples of conditions very different from the present day, and in some cases similar to model projections for the future. In addition, the deep-time paleoecologic and sedimentologic archives provide insight into how species and habitats responded to past climate conditions. Thus, paleoclimatology provides essential context for the scientific understanding of climate change needed to inform resource management policy decisions. The Pliocene Epoch (5.3–2.6 Ma) is the most recent deep-time interval with relevance to future global warming. Analysis of marine sediments using a combination of paleoecology, biomarkers, and geochemistry indicates a global mean annual temperature for the Late Pliocene (3.6–2.6 Ma) ∼3°C warmer than the preindustrial. However, the inability of state-of-the-art climate models to capture some key regional features of Pliocene warming implies future projections using these same models may not span the full range of plausible future climate conditions. We use the Late Pliocene as one example of a deep-time interval relevant to management of biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world. Pliocene reconstructed sea surface temperatures are used to drive a marine ecosystem model for the North Atlantic Ocean. Given that boundary conditions for the Late Pliocene are roughly analogous to present day, driving the marine ecosystem model with Late Pliocene paleoenvironmental conditions allows policymakers to consider a future ocean state and associated fisheries impacts independent of climate models, informed directly by paleoclimate information.

Hydrographic Feature Variation Caused Pronounced Differences in Planktonic Ciliate Community in the Pacific Arctic Region in the Summer of 2016 and 2019

Planktonic ciliates are an important component of microzooplankton, but there is limited understanding of their responses to changing environmental conditions in the Pacific Arctic Region. We investigated the variations of ciliate community structure and their relationships with environmental features in the Pacific Arctic Region in the summer of 2016 and 2019. The Pacific water was warmer and more saline in 2019 than in 2016. The abundance and biomass of total ciliate and aloricate ciliate were significantly higher in 2019 than those in 2016, while those of tintinnid were significantly lower. The dominant aloricate ciliate changed from large size-fraction (> 30 μm) in 2016 to small size-fraction (10-20 μm) in 2019. More tintinnid species belonging to cosmopolitan genera were found in 2019 than in 2016, and the distribution of tintinnid species (Codonellopsis frigida, Ptychocylis obtusa, and Salpingella sp.1) in 2019 expanded by 5.9, 5.2, and 8.8 degrees further north of where they occurred in 2016. The environmental variables that best-matched tintinnid distributions were temperature and salinity, while the best match for aloricate ciliate distributions was temperature. Therefore, the temperature might play a key role in ciliate distribution. These results provide basic data on the response of the planktonic ciliate community to hydrographic variations and implicate the potential response of microzooplankton to Pacification as rapid warming progresses in the Pacific Arctic Region.

Diachroneity Rules the Mid-Latitudes: A Test Case Using Late Neogene Planktic Foraminifera across the Western Pacific

Planktic foraminifera are commonly used for first-order age control in deep-sea sediments from low-latitude regions based on a robust tropical–subtropical zonation scheme. Although multiple Neogene planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphic zonations for mid-latitude regions exist, quantification of diachroneity for the species used as datums to test paleobiogeographic patterns of origination and dispersal is lacking. Here, we update the age models for seven southwest-Pacific deep-sea sites using calcareous nannofossil and bolboform biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy, and use 11 sites between 37.9° N and 40.6° S in the western Pacific to correlate existing planktic foraminiferal biozonations and quantify the diachroneity of species used as datums. For the first time, northwest and southwest Pacific biozones are correlated and compared to the global tropical planktic foraminiferal biozonation. We find a high degree of diachroneity in the western Pacific, within and between the northwest and southwest regions, and between the western Pacific and the tropical zonation. Importantly, some datums that are found to be diachronous between regions have reduced diachroneity within regions. Much work remains to refine regional planktic foraminiferal biozonations and more fully understand diachroneity between the tropics and mid-latitudes. This study indicates that diachroneity is the rule for Late Neogene planktic foraminifera, rather than the exception, in mid-latitude regions.

Global warming is causing a more pronounced dip in marine species richness around the equator

The latitudinal gradient in species richness, with more species in the tropics and richness declining with latitude, is widely known and has been assumed to be stable over recent centuries. We analyzed data on 48,661 marine animal species since 1955, accounting for sampling variation, to assess whether the global latitudinal gradient in species richness is being impacted by climate change. We confirm recent studies that show a slight dip in species richness at the equator. Moreover, richness across latitudinal bands was sensitive to temperature, reaching a plateau or declining above a mean annual sea surface temperature of 20 °C for most taxa. In response, since the 1970s, species richness has declined at the equator relative to an increase at midlatitudes and has shifted north in the northern hemisphere, particularly among pelagic species. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is impacting the latitudinal gradient in marine biodiversity at a global scale. The intensification of the dip in species richness at the equator, especially for pelagic species, suggests that it is already too warm there for some species to survive.

Truncated bimodal latitudinal diversity gradient in early Paleozoic phytoplankton

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the decline in species richness from the equator to the poles-is classically considered as the most pervasive macroecological pattern on Earth, but the timing of its establishment, its ubiquity in the geological past, and explanatory mechanisms remain uncertain. By combining empirical and modeling approaches, we show that the first representatives of marine phytoplankton exhibited an LDG from the beginning of the Cambrian, when most major phyla appeared. However, this LDG showed a single peak of diversity centered on the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the equatorial peak classically observed for most modern taxa. We find that this LDG most likely corresponds to a truncated bimodal gradient, which probably results from an uneven sediment preservation, smaller sampling effort, and/or lower initial diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Variation of the documented LDG through time resulted primarily from fluctuations in annual sea-surface temperature and long-term climate changes.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Global biodiversity and biogeography of mangrove crabs: Temperature, the key driver of latitudinal gradients of species richness

Mangroves are ideal habitat for a variety of marine species especially brachyuran crabs as the dominant macrofauna. However, the global distribution, endemicity, and latitudinal gradients of species richness in mangrove crabs remains poorly understood. Here, we assessed whether species richness of mangrove crabs decreases towards the higher latitudes and tested the importance of environmental factors such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in creating the latitudinal gradients in species richness of mangrove crabs. A total of 8262 distribution records of 481 species belonging to six families of mangrove crabs including Camptandriidae, Dotillidae, Macrophthalmidae, Ocypodidae, Sesarmidae, and Oziidae were extracted from open-access databases or collected by the authors, quality controlled, cleaned, and analyzed. Species richness was plotted against 5° latitudinal bands in relation to environmental factors. The R software and ArcGIS 10.6.1 were used to analyze the species latitudinal range and richness as well as to map the distribution of mangrove forest, endemic species, species geographical distribution records, and biogeographic regions. The Indo-West Pacific showed the highest species richness of mangrove crabs where more than 65% of species were found in the Indian Ocean and along the western Pacific Ocean. Our results showed that there are 11 significantly different biogeographic regions of mangrove crabs. The highest endemicity rate was observed in the NW Pacific Ocean (29%). Latitudinal patterns of species richness in Macrophthalmidae, Ocypodidae, and Sesarmidae showed an increasing trend from the poles toward the intermediate latitudes including one dip near the equator. However, latitudinal gradients in Camptandriidae, Dotillidae, and Oziidae were unimodal increasing from the higher latitudes towards the equator. Species richness per 5° latitudinal bands significantly increased following mean SST mean (°C), calcite, euphotic depth (m), and mangrove area (km²) across all latitudes, and tide average within each hemisphere. Species richness significantly decreased with dissolved O₂ (ml l^-1) and nitrate (μmol l^-1) over all latitudes and in the southern hemisphere. The climax of global latitudinal species richness for some mangrove was observed along latitudes 20° N and 15°-25° S, not at the equator. This can suggest that temperature is probably the key driver of latitudinal gradients of mangrove crabs' species richness. Species richness and mangrove area were also highly correlated.

Flat latitudinal diversity gradient caused by the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is recognized as one of the most pervasive, global patterns of present-day biodiversity. However, the controlling mechanisms have proved difficult to identify because many potential drivers covary in space. The geological record presents a unique opportunity for understanding the mechanisms which drive the LDG by providing a direct window to deep-time biogeographic dynamics. Here we used a comprehensive database containing 52,318 occurrences of marine fossils to show that the shape of the LDG changed greatly during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction from showing a significant tropical peak to a flattened LDG. The flat LDG lasted for the entire Early Triassic (∼5 My) before reverting to a modern-like shape in the Middle Triassic. The environmental extremes that prevailed globally, especially the dramatic warming, likely induced selective extinction in low latitudes and accumulation of diversity in high latitudes through origination and poleward migration, which combined together account for the flat LDG of the Early Triassic.

Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity

A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurred during the last ice age and has since then developed into a bimodal gradient through species distribution shifts driven by postglacial ocean warming. The bimodal LDG likely emerged before the Anthropocene and industrialization, and perhaps ∼15,000 y ago, indicating a strong environmental control of tropical diversity even before the start of anthropogenic warming. However, our model projections suggest that future anthropogenic warming further diminishes tropical pelagic diversity to a level not seen in millions of years.

Global Trends in Marine Plankton Diversity across Kingdoms of Life

The ocean is home to myriad small planktonic organisms that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems. However, their spatial patterns of diversity and the underlying drivers remain poorly known, precluding projections of their responses to global changes. Here we investigate the latitudinal gradients and global predictors of plankton diversity across archaea, bacteria, eukaryotes, and major virus clades using both molecular and imaging data from Tara Oceans. We show a decline of diversity for most planktonic groups toward the poles, mainly driven by decreasing ocean temperatures. Projections into the future suggest that severe warming of the surface ocean by the end of the 21^st century could lead to tropicalization of the diversity of most planktonic groups in temperate and polar regions. These changes may have multiple consequences for marine ecosystem functioning and services and are expected to be particularly significant in key areas for carbon sequestration, fisheries, and marine conservation.

Video Abstract

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Most epipelagic planktonic groups exhibit a poleward decline of diversity

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No latitudinal diversity gradient was observed below the photic zone

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Temperature emerges as the best predictor of epipelagic plankton diversity

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Global warming may increase plankton diversity, particularly at high latitudes

Global marine biodiversity in the context of achieving the Aichi Targets: ways forward and addressing data gaps

In 2010, the Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity agreed on the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 in Aichi Prefecture, Japan. As this plan approaches its end, we discussed whether marine biodiversity and prediction studies were nearing the Aichi Targets during the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity held in Montreal, Canada in June 2018. This article summarises the outcome of a five-day group discussion on how global marine biodiversity studies should be focused further to better understand the patterns of biodiversity. We discussed and reviewed seven fundamental biodiversity priorities related to nine Aichi Targets focusing on global biodiversity discovery and predictions to improve and enhance biodiversity data standards (quantity and quality), tools and techniques, spatial and temporal scale framing, and stewardship and dissemination. We discuss how identifying biodiversity knowledge gaps and promoting efforts have and will reduce such gaps, including via the use of new databases, tools and technology, and how these resources could be improved in the future. The group recognised significant progress toward Target 19 in relation to scientific knowledge, but negligible progress with regard to Targets 6 to 13 which aimed to safeguard and reduce human impacts on biodiversity.

Latitudinal and bathymetrical species richness patterns in the NW Pacific and adjacent Arctic Ocean

Global scale analyses have recently revealed that the latitudinal gradient in marine species richness is bimodal, peaking at low-mid latitudes but with a dip at the equator; and that marine species richness decreases with depth in many taxa. However, these overall and independently studied patterns may conceal regional differences that help support or qualify the causes in these gradients. Here, we analysed both latitudinal and depth gradients of species richness in the NW Pacific and its adjacent Arctic Ocean. We analysed 324,916 distribution records of 17,414 species from 0 to 10,900 m depth, latitude 0 to 90°N, and longitude 100 to 180°N. Species richness per c. 50 000 km² hexagonal cells was calculated as alpha (local average), gamma (regional total) and ES50 (estimated species for 50 records) per latitudinal band and depth interval. We found that average ES50 and gamma species richness decreased per 5° latitudinal bands and 100 m depth intervals. However, average ES50 per hexagon showed that the highest species richness peaked around depth 2,000 m where the highest total number of species recorded. Most (83%) species occurred in shallow depths (0 to 500 m). The area around Bohol Island in the Philippines had the highest alpha species richness (more than 8,000 species per 50,000 km²). Both alpha and gamma diversity trends increased from the equator to latitude 10°N, then further decreased, but reached another peak at higher latitudes. The latitudes 60–70°N had the lowest gamma and alpha diversity where there is almost no ocean in our study area. Model selection on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) showed that the combined effects of all environmental predictors produced the best model driving species richness in both shallow and deep sea. The results thus support recent hypotheses that biodiversity, while highest in the tropics and coastal depths, is decreasing at the equator and decreases with depth below ~2000 m. While we do find the declines of species richness with latitude and depth that reflect temperature gradients, local scale richness proved poorly correlated with many environmental variables. This demonstrates that while regional scale patterns in species richness may be related to temperature, that local scale richness depends on a greater variety of variables.

Global pattern of phytoplankton diversity driven by temperature and environmental variability

Despite their importance to ocean productivity, global patterns of marine phytoplankton diversity remain poorly characterized. Although temperature is considered a key driver of general marine biodiversity, its specific role in phytoplankton diversity has remained unclear. We determined monthly phytoplankton species richness by using niche modeling and >540,000 global phytoplankton observations to predict biogeographic patterns of 536 phytoplankton species. Consistent with metabolic theory, phytoplankton richness in the tropics is about three times that in higher latitudes, with temperature being the most important driver. However, below 19°C, richness is lower than expected, with ~8°- 14°C waters (~35° to 60° latitude) showing the greatest divergence from theoretical predictions. Regions of reduced richness are characterized by maximal species turnover and environmental variability, suggesting that the latter reduces species richness directly, or through enhancing competitive exclusion. The nonmonotonic relationship between phytoplankton richness and temperature suggests unanticipated complexity in responses of marine biodiversity to ocean warming.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

Temperature is a poor proxy for synergistic climate forcing of plankton evolution

Changes in biodiversity at all levels from molecules to ecosystems are often linked to climate change, which is widely represented univariately by temperature. A global environmental driving mechanism of biodiversity dynamics is thus implied by the strong correlation between temperature proxies and diversity patterns in a wide variety of fauna and flora. Yet climate consists of many interacting variables. Species probably respond to the entire climate system as opposed to its individual facets. Here, we examine ecological and morphological traits of 12 633 individuals of two species of planktonic foraminifera with similar ecologies but contrasting evolutionary outcomes. Our results show that morphological and ecological changes are correlated to the interactions between multiple environmental factors. Models including interactions between climate variables explain at least twice as much variation in size, shape and abundance changes as models assuming that climate parameters operate independently. No dominant climatic driver can be identified: temperature alone explains remarkably little variation through our highly resolved temporal sequences, implying that a multivariate approach is required to understand evolutionary response to abiotic forcing. Our results caution against the use of a ‘silver bullet’ environmental parameter to represent global climate while studying evolutionary responses to abiotic change, and show that more comprehensive reconstruction of palaeobiological dynamics requires multiple biotic and abiotic dimensions.

An examination of the impact of Olson's extinction on tetrapods from Texas

It has been suggested that a transition between a pelycosaurian-grade synapsid dominated fauna of the Cisuralian (early Permian) and the therapsid dominated fauna of the Guadalupian (middle Permian) was accompanied by, and possibly driven by, a mass extinction dubbed Olson’s Extinction. However, this interpretation of the record has recently been criticised as being a result of inappropriate time-binning strategies: calculating species richness within international stages or substages combines extinctions occurring throughout the late Kungurian stage into a single event. To address this criticism, I examine the best record available for the time of the extinction, the tetrapod-bearing formations of Texas, at a finer stratigraphic scale than those previously employed. Species richness is calculated using four different time-binning schemes: the traditional Land Vertebrate Faunachrons (LVFs); a re-definition of the LVFs using constrained cluster analysis; individual formations treated as time bins; and a stochastic approach assigning specimens to half-million-year bins. Diversity is calculated at the genus and species level, both with and without subsampling, and extinction rates are also inferred. Under all time-binning schemes, both at the genus and species level, a substantial drop in diversity occurs during the Redtankian LVF. Extinction rates are raised above background rates throughout this time, but the biggest peak occurs in the Choza Formation (uppermost Redtankian), coinciding with the disappearance from the fossil record of several of amphibian clades. This study, carried out at a finer stratigraphic scale than previous examinations, indicates that Olson’s Extinction is not an artefact of the method used to bin data by time in previous analyses.

Olson's Extinction and the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of tetrapods in the Permian

The terrestrial vertebrate fauna underwent a substantial change in composition between the lower and middle Permian. The lower Permian fauna was characterized by diverse and abundant amphibians and pelycosaurian-grade synapsids. During the middle Permian, a therapsid-dominated fauna, containing a diverse array of parareptiles and a considerably reduced richness of amphibians, replaced this. However, it is debated whether the transition is a genuine event, accompanied by a mass extinction, or whether it is merely an artefact of the shift in sampling from the palaeoequatorial latitudes to the palaeotemperate latitudes. Here we use an up-to-date biostratigraphy and incorporate recent discoveries to thoroughly review the Permian tetrapod fossil record. We suggest that the faunal transition represents a genuine event; the lower Permian temperate faunas are more similar to lower Permian equatorial faunas than middle Permian temperate faunas. The transition was not consistent across latitudes; the turnover occurred more rapidly in Russia, but was delayed in North America. The argument that the mass extinction is an artefact of a latitudinal biodiversity gradient and a shift in sampling localities is rejected: sampling correction demonstrates an inverse latitudinal biodiversity gradient was prevalent during the Permian, with peak diversity in the temperate latitudes.

The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera

The Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera (PF) (calcareous zooplankton) have arguably the most detailed fossil record of any group. The quality of this record allows models of environmental controls on macroecology, developed for Recent assemblages, to be tested on intervals with profoundly different climatic conditions. These analyses shed light on the role of long-term global cooling in establishing the modern latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)--one of the most powerful generalizations in biogeography and macroecology. Here, we test the transferability of environment-diversity models developed for modern PF assemblages to the Eocene epoch (approx. 56-34 Ma), a time of pronounced global warmth. Environmental variables from global climate models are combined with Recent environment-diversity models to predict Eocene richness gradients, which are then compared with observed patterns. The results indicate the modern LDG--lower richness towards the poles--developed through the Eocene. Three possible causes are suggested for the mismatch between statistical model predictions and data in the Early Eocene: the environmental estimates are inaccurate, the statistical model misses a relevant variable, or the intercorrelations among facets of diversity--e.g. richness, evenness, functional diversity--have changed over geological time. By the Late Eocene, environment-diversity relationships were much more similar to those found today.

Planktonic equatorial diversity troughs: fact or artifact? Latitudinal diversity gradients in Radiolaria

In contrast to the classical notion of an increasing biodiversity from the poles to the equator, a number of studies concluded that the diversity of marine species is highest at the middle latitudes, and decreases at the equator. Using a worldwide database critically compiled from 72 surveys (307 species, 4,807 water column and surface sediment samples), we analyzed the latitudinal gradients in species richness (LGSR) of a highly diversified group of marine holoplanktonic protists, the polycystine Radiolaria. Species richness values were corrected for uneven sample coverage and sample size, and contrasted with gradients in 11 environmental variables. Radiolarian species richness decreases from the equator to the poles both in the water column and in the surface sediments and is tightly coupled with temperature throughout the entire thermal range of marine waters. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, a conspicuous east-west gradient in diversity is also associated with temperature. Globally, diversity is negatively correlated with mean annual concentrations of nutrients (N, P, Si) and chlorophyll a. Disagreements with results reported for many other oceanic plankton may stem from the reduction of 3D distributional patterns onto 2D or 1D spaces, to the intermittent mixing of Subtropical and Subpolar species at the middle latitudes, and to a Mid-Domain Effect. The fact that radiolarian LGSR do not show this drop at the equator is partly due to methodological and database-related differences, and probably also in part a reflection of taxon-specific traits.

Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

The decline of species richness from equator to pole, or latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), is nearly universal among clades of living organisms, yet whether it was such a pervasive pattern in the geologic past remains uncertain. Here, we calculate the strength of the LDG for terrestrial mammals in North America over the past 65 My, using 27,903 fossil occurrences of Cenozoic terrestrial mammals from western North America downloaded from the Paleobiology Database. Accounting for temporal and spatial variation in sampling, the LDG was substantially weaker than it is today for most of the Cenozoic and the robust modern LDG of North American mammals evolved only over the last 4 My. The strength of the LDG correlates negatively with global temperature, suggesting a role of global climate patterns in the establishment and maintenance of the LDG for North American mammals.

Declines in both redundant and trace species characterize the latitudinal diversity gradient in tintinnid ciliates

The latitudinal diversity gradient is a well-known biogeographic pattern. However, rarely considered is how a cline in species richness may be reflected in the characteristics of species assemblages. Fewer species may equal fewer distinct ecological types, or declines in redundancy (species functionally similar to one another) or fewer trace species, those occurring in very low concentrations. We focused on tintinnid ciliates of the microzooplankton in which the ciliate cell is housed inside a species-specific lorica or shell. The size of lorica oral aperture, the lorica oral diameter (LOD), is correlated with a preferred prey size and maximum growth rate. Consequently, species of a distinct LOD are distinct in key ecologic characteristics, whereas those of a similar LOD are functionally similar or redundant species. We sampled from East Sea/Sea of Japan to the High Arctic Sea. We determined abundance distributions of biological species and also ecological types by grouping species in LOD size-classes, sets of ecologically similar species. In lower latitudes there are more trace species, more size-classes and the dominant species are accompanied by many apparently ecologically similar species, presumably able to replace the dominant species, at least with regard to the size of prey exploited. Such redundancy appears to decline markedly with latitude in assemblages of tintinnid ciliates. Furthermore, the relatively small species pools of the northern high latitude assemblages suggest a low capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

A global planktic foraminifer census data set for the Pliocene ocean

This article presents data derived by the USGS Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project. PRISM has generated planktic foraminifer census data from core sites and outcrops around the globe since 1988. These data form the basis of a number of paleoceanographic reconstructions focused on the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago). Data are presented as counts of individuals within 64 taxonomic categories for each locality. We describe sample acquisition and processing, age dating, taxonomy and archival storage of material. These data provide a unique, stratigraphically focused opportunity to assess the effects of global warming on marine plankton.

Combining marine macroecology and palaeoecology in understanding biodiversity: microfossils as a model

There is growing interest in the integration of macroecology and palaeoecology towards a better understanding of past, present, and anticipated future biodiversity dynamics. However, the empirical basis for this integration has thus far been limited. Here we review prospects for a macroecology-palaeoecology integration in biodiversity analyses with a focus on marine microfossils [i.e. small (or small parts of) organisms with high fossilization potential, such as foraminifera, ostracodes, diatoms, radiolaria, coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and ichthyoliths]. Marine microfossils represent a useful model system for such integrative research because of their high abundance, large spatiotemporal coverage, and good taxonomic and temporal resolution. The microfossil record allows for quantitative cross-scale research designs, which help in answering fundamental questions about marine biodiversity, including the causes behind similarities in patterns of latitudinal and longitudinal variation across taxa, the degree of constancy of observed gradients over time, and the relative importance of hypothesized drivers that may explain past or present biodiversity patterns. The inclusion of a deep-time perspective based on high-resolution microfossil records may be an important step for the further maturation of macroecology. An improved integration of macroecology and palaeoecology would aid in our understanding of the balance of ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that have shaped the biosphere we inhabit today and affect how it may change in the future.

Insect responses to host plant provision beyond natural boundaries: latitudinal and altitudinal variation in a Chinese fig wasp community

Many plants are grown outside their natural ranges. Plantings adjacent to native ranges provide an opportunity to monitor community assembly among associated insects and their parasitoids in novel environments, to determine whether gradients in species richness emerge and to examine their consequences for host plant reproductive success. We recorded the fig wasps (Chalcidoidea) associated with a single plant resource (ovules of Ficus microcarpa) along a 1200 km transect in southwest China that extended for 1000 km beyond the tree's natural northern range margin. The fig wasps included the tree's agaonid pollinator and other species that feed on the ovules or are their parasitoids. Phytophagous fig wasps (12 species) were more numerous than parasitoids (nine species). The proportion of figs occupied by fig wasps declined with increasing latitude, as did the proportion of utilized ovules in occupied figs. Species richness, diversity, and abundance of fig wasps also significantly changed along both latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. Parasitoids declined more steeply with latitude than phytophages. Seed production declined beyond the natural northern range margin, and at high elevation, because pollinator fig wasps became rare or absent. This suggests that pollinator climatic tolerances helped limit the tree's natural distribution, although competition with another species may have excluded pollinators at the highest altitude site. Isolation by distance may prevent colonization of northern sites by some fig wasps and act in combination with direct and host-mediated climatic effects to generate gradients in community composition, with parasitoids inherently more sensitive because of declines in the abundance of potential hosts.

Temperature impacts on deep-sea biodiversity

Temperature is considered to be a fundamental factor controlling biodiversity in marine ecosystems, but precisely what role temperature plays in modulating diversity is still not clear. The deep ocean, lacking light and in situ photosynthetic primary production, is an ideal model system to test the effects of temperature changes on biodiversity. Here we synthesize current knowledge on temperature-diversity relationships in the deep sea. Our results from both present and past deep-sea assemblages suggest that, when a wide range of deep-sea bottom-water temperatures is considered, a unimodal relationship exists between temperature and diversity (that may be right skewed). It is possible that temperature is important only when at relatively high and low levels but does not play a major role in the intermediate temperature range. Possible mechanisms explaining the temperature-biodiversity relationship include the physiological-tolerance hypothesis, the metabolic hypothesis, island biogeography theory, or some combination of these. The possible unimodal relationship discussed here may allow us to identify tipping points at which on-going global change and deep-water warming may increase or decrease deep-sea biodiversity. Predicted changes in deep-sea temperatures due to human-induced climate change may have more adverse consequences than expected considering the sensitivity of deep-sea ecosystems to temperature changes.

Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America

Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity) is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year) and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs) increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

Evolution at a different pace: distinctive phylogenetic patterns of cone snails from two ancient oceanic archipelagos

Ancient oceanic archipelagos of similar geological age are expected to accrue comparable numbers of endemic lineages with identical life history strategies, especially if the islands exhibit analogous habitats. We tested this hypothesis using marine snails of the genus Conus from the Atlantic archipelagos of Cape Verde and Canary Islands. Together with Azores and Madeira, these archipelagos comprise the Macaronesia biogeographic region and differ remarkably in the diversity of this group. More than 50 endemic Conus species have been described from Cape Verde, whereas prior to this study, only two nonendemic species, including a putative species complex, were thought to occur in the Canary Islands. We combined molecular phylogenetic data and geometric morphometrics with bathymetric and paleoclimatic reconstructions to understand the contrasting diversification patterns found in these regions. Our results suggest that species diversity is even lower than previously thought in the Canary Islands, with the putative species complex corresponding to a single species, Conus guanche. One explanation for the enormous disparity in Conus diversity is that the amount of available habitat may differ, or may have differed in the past due to eustatic (global) sea level changes. Historical bathymetric data, however, indicated that sea level fluctuations since the Miocene have had a similar impact on the available habitat area in both Cape Verde and Canary archipelagos and therefore do not explain this disparity. We suggest that recurrent gene flow between the Canary Islands and West Africa, habitat losses due to intense volcanic activity in combination with unsuccessful colonization of new Conus species from more diverse regions, were all determinant in shaping diversity patterns within the Canarian archipelago. Worldwide Conus species diversity follows the well-established pattern of latitudinal increase of species richness from the poles towards the tropics. However, the eastern Atlantic revealed a striking pattern with two main peaks of Conus species richness in the subtropical area and decreasing diversities toward the tropical western African coast. A Random Forests model using 12 oceanographic variables suggested that sea surface temperature is the main determinant of Conus diversity either at continental scales (eastern Atlantic coast) or in a broader context (worldwide). Other factors such as availability of suitable habitat and reduced salinity due to the influx of large rivers in the tropical area also play an important role in shaping Conus diversity patterns in the western coast of Africa.

Does climate limit species richness by limiting individual species' ranges?

Broad-scale geographical variation in species richness is strongly correlated with climate, yet the mechanisms underlying this correlation are still unclear. We test two broad classes of hypotheses to explain this pattern. Bottom-up hypotheses propose that the environment determines individual species' ranges. Ranges then sum up to yield species richness patterns. Top-down hypotheses propose that the environment limits the number of species that occur in a region, but not which ones. We test these two classes of hypotheses using a natural experiment: seasonal changes in environmental variables and seasonal range shifts of 625 migratory birds in the Americas. We show that richness seasonally tracks the environment. By contrast, individual species' geographical distributions do not. Rather, species occupy different sets of environmental conditions in two seasons. Our results are inconsistent with extant bottom-up hypotheses. Instead, a top-down mechanism appears to constrain the number of species that can occur in a given region.

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient through deep time

Today, biodiversity decreases from equatorial to polar regions. This is a fundamental pattern governing the distribution of extant organisms, the understanding of which is critical to predicting climatically driven biodiversity loss. However, its causes remain unresolved. The fossil record offers a unique perspective on the evolution of this latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), providing a dynamic system in which to explore spatiotemporal diversity fluctuations. Deep-time studies indicate that a tropical peak and poleward decline in species diversity has not been a persistent pattern throughout the Phanerozoic, but is restricted to intervals of the Palaeozoic and the past 30 million years. A tropical peak might characterise cold icehouse climatic regimes, whereas warmer greenhouse regimes display temperate diversity peaks or flattened gradients.

Decadal Changes in the World's Coastal Latitudinal Temperature Gradients

Most of the world's living marine resources inhabit coastal environments, where average thermal conditions change predictably with latitude. These coastal latitudinal temperature gradients (CLTG) coincide with important ecological clines,e.g., in marine species diversity or adaptive genetic variations, but how tightly thermal and ecological gradients are linked remains unclear. A first step is to consistently characterize the world's CLTGs. We extracted coastal cells from a global 1°×1° dataset of weekly sea surface temperatures (SST, 1982–2012) to quantify spatial and temporal variability of the world's 11 major CLTGs. Gradient strength, i.e., the slope of the linear mean-SST/latitude relationship, varied 3-fold between the steepest (North-American Atlantic and Asian Pacific gradients: −0.91°C and −0.68°C lat⁻¹, respectively) and weakest CLTGs (African Indian Ocean and the South- and North-American Pacific gradients: −0.28, −0.29, −0.32°C lat⁻¹, respectively). Analyzing CLTG strength by year revealed that seven gradients have weakened by 3–10% over the past three decades due to increased warming at high compared to low latitudes. Almost the entire South-American Pacific gradient (6–47°S), however, has considerably cooled over the study period (−0.3 to −1.7°C, 31 years), and the substantial weakening of the North-American Atlantic gradient (−10%) was due to warming at high latitudes (42–60°N, +0.8 to +1.6°C,31 years) and significant mid-latitude cooling (Florida to Cape Hatteras 26–35°N, −0.5 to −2.2°C, 31 years). Average SST trends rarely resulted from uniform shifts throughout the year; instead individual seasonal warming or cooling patterns elicited the observed changes in annual means. This is consistent with our finding of increased seasonality (i.e., summer-winter SST amplitude) in three quarters of all coastal cells (331 of 433). Our study highlights the regionally variable footprint of global climate change, while emphasizing ecological implications of changing CLTGs, which are likely driving observed spatial and temporal clines in coastal marine life.

Equatorial decline of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial

The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125,000 y ago) resulted from rapid global warming and reached global mean temperatures exceeding those of today. The LIG thus offers the opportunity to study how life may respond to future global warming. Using global occurrence databases and applying sampling-standardization, we compared reef coral diversity and distributions between the LIG and modern. Latitudinal diversity patterns are characterized by a tropical plateau today but were characterized by a pronounced equatorial trough during the LIG. This trough is governed by substantial range shifts away from the equator. Range shifts affected both leading and trailing edges of species range limits and were much more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere than south of the equator. We argue that interglacial warming was responsible for the loss of equatorial diversity. Hemispheric differences in insolation during the LIG may explain the asymmetrical response. The equatorial retractions are surprisingly strong given that only small temperature changes have been reported in the LIG tropics. Our results suggest that the poleward range expansions of reef corals occurring with intensified global warming today may soon be followed by equatorial range retractions.

Human-induced marine ecological degradation: micropaleontological perspectives

We analyzed published downcore microfossil records from 150 studies and reinterpreted them from an ecological degradation perspective to address the following critical but still imperfectly answered questions: (1) How is the timing of human-induced degradation of marine ecosystems different among regions? (2) What are the dominant causes of human-induced marine ecological degradation? (3) How can we better document natural variability and thereby avoid the problem of shifting baselines of comparison as degradation progresses over time? The results indicated that: (1) ecological degradation in marine systems began significantly earlier in Europe and North America (∼1800s) compared with Asia (post-1900) due to earlier industrialization in European and North American countries, (2) ecological degradation accelerated globally in the late 20th century due to post-World War II economic growth, (3) recovery from the degraded state in late 20th century following various restoration efforts and environmental regulations occurred only in limited localities. Although complex in detail, typical signs of ecological degradation were diversity decline, dramatic changes in total abundance, decrease in benthic and/or sensitive species, and increase in planktic, resistant, toxic, and/or introduced species. The predominant cause of degradation detected in these microfossil records was nutrient enrichment and the resulting symptoms of eutrophication, including hypoxia. Other causes also played considerable roles in some areas, including severe metal pollution around mining sites, water acidification by acidic wastewater, and salinity changes from construction of causeways, dikes, and channels, deforestation, and land clearance. Microfossils enable reconstruction of the ecological history of the past 10(2)-10(3) years or even more, and, in conjunction with statistical modeling approaches using independent proxy records of climate and human-induced environmental changes, future research will enable workers to better address Shifting Baseline Syndrome and separate anthropogenic impacts from background natural variability.