Smoothing spline estimation in varying-coefficient models

Estimating causal effects from panel data with dynamic multivariate panel models

Panel data are ubiquitous in scientific fields such as social sciences. Various modeling approaches have been presented for observational causal inference based on such data. Existing approaches typically impose restrictive assumptions on the data-generating process such as Gaussian responses or time-invariant effects, or they can only consider short-term causal effects. To surmount these restrictions, we present the dynamic multivariate panel model (DMPM) that supports time-varying, time-invariant, and individual-specific effects, multiple responses across a wide variety of distributions, and arbitrary dependency structures of lagged responses of any order. We formally demonstrate how DMPM facilitates causal inference within the structural causal modeling framework and we take a Bayesian approach for the estimation of the posterior distributions of the model parameters and causal effects of interest. We demonstrate the use of DMPM by applying the approach to both real and synthetic data.

RETROSPECTIVE VARYING COEFFICIENT ASSOCIATION ANALYSIS OF LONGITUDINAL BINARY TRAITS: APPLICATION TO THE IDENTIFICATION OF GENETIC LOCI ASSOCIATED WITH HYPERTENSION

Many genetic studies contain rich information on longitudinal phenotypes that require powerful analytical tools for optimal analysis. Genetic analysis of longitudinal data that incorporates temporal variation is important for understanding the genetic architecture and biological variation of complex diseases. Most of the existing methods assume that the contribution of genetic variants is constant over time and fail to capture the dynamic pattern of disease progression. However, the relative influence of genetic variants on complex traits fluctuates over time. In this study, we propose a retrospective varying coefficient mixed model association test, RVMMAT, to detect time-varying genetic effect on longitudinal binary traits. We model dynamic genetic effect using smoothing splines, estimate model parameters by maximizing a double penalized quasi-likelihood function, design a joint test using a Cauchy combination method, and evaluate statistical significance via a retrospective approach to achieve robustness to model misspecification. Through simulations we illustrated that the retrospective varying-coefficient test was robust to model misspecification under different ascertainment schemes and gained power over the association methods assuming constant genetic effect. We applied RVMMAT to a genome-wide association analysis of longitudinal measure of hypertension in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Pathway analysis identified two important pathways related to G-protein signaling and DNA damage. Our results demonstrated that RVMMAT could detect biologically relevant loci and pathways in a genome scan and provided insight into the genetic architecture of hypertension.

Simultaneous selection and inference for varying coefficients with zero regions: a soft-thresholding approach

Varying coefficient models have been used to explore dynamic effects in many scientific areas, such as in medicine, finance, and epidemiology. As most existing models ignore the existence of zero regions, we propose a new soft-thresholded varying coefficient model, where the coefficient functions are piecewise smooth with zero regions. Our new modeling approach enables us to perform variable selection, detect the zero regions of selected variables, obtain point estimates of the varying coefficients with zero regions, and construct a new type of sparse confidence intervals that accommodate zero regions. We prove the asymptotic properties of the estimator, based on which we draw statistical inference. Our simulation study reveals that the proposed sparse confidence intervals achieve the desired coverage probability. We apply the proposed method to analyze a large-scale preoperative opioid study.

Testing Linear Operator Constraints in Functional Response Regression with Incomplete Response Functions

Hypothesis testing procedures are developed to assess linear operator constraints in function-on-scalar regression when incomplete functional responses are observed. The approach enables statistical inferences about the shape and other aspects of the functional regression coefficients within a unified framework encompassing three incomplete sampling scenarios: (i) partially observed response functions as curve segments over random sub-intervals of the domain; (ii) discretely observed functional responses with additive measurement errors; and (iii) the composition of former two scenarios, where partially observed response segments are observed discretely with measurement error. The latter scenario has been little explored to date, although such structured data is increasingly common in applications. For statistical inference, deviations from the constraint space are measured via integratedL 2 -distance between the model estimates from the constrained and unconstrained model spaces. Large sample properties of the proposed test procedure are established, including the consistency, asymptotic distribution and local power of the test statistic. Finite sample power and level of the proposed test are investigated in a simulation study covering a variety of scenarios. The proposed methodologies are illustrated by applications to U.S. obesity prevalence data, analyzing the functional shape of its trends over time, and motion analysis in a study of automotive ergonomics.

Varying-coefficient regression analysis for pooled biomonitoring

Human biomonitoring involves measuring the accumulation of contaminants in biological specimens (such as blood or urine) to assess individuals' exposure to environmental contamination. Due to the expensive cost of a single assay, the method of pooling has become increasingly common in environmental studies. The implementation of pooling starts by physically mixing specimens into pools, and then measures pooled specimens for the concentration of contaminants. An important task is to reconstruct individual-level statistical characteristics based on pooled measurements. In this article, we propose to use the varying-coefficient regression model for individual-level biomonitoring and provide methods to estimate the varying coefficients based on different types of pooled data. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are presented. We illustrate our methodology via simulation and with application to pooled biomonitoring of a brominated flame retardant provided by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Bayesian P-Splines Quantile Regression of Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Spatial Autoregressive Models

This paper deals with spatial data that can be modelled by partially linear varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models with Bayesian P-splines quantile regression. We evaluate the linear and nonlinear effects of covariates on the response and use quantile regression to present comprehensive information at different quantiles. We not only propose an empirical Bayesian approach of quantile regression using the asymmetric Laplace error distribution and employ P-splines to approximate nonparametric components but also develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to explore the joint posterior distributions of unknown parameters. Monte Carlo simulations show that our estimators not only have robustness for different spatial weight matrices but also perform better compared with quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression estimators in finite samples at different quantiles. Finally, a set of Sydney real estate data applications is analysed to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Time-varying coefficient model estimation through radial basis functions

In this paper, we estimate the dynamic parameters of a time-varying coefficient model through radial kernel functions in the context of a longitudinal study. Our proposal is based on a linear combination of weighted kernel functions involving a bandwidth, centered around a given set of time points. In addition, we study different alternatives of estimation and inference including a Frequentist approach using weighted least squares along with bootstrap methods, and a Bayesian approach through both Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We compare the estimation strategies mention above with each other, and our radial kernel functions proposal with an expansion based on regression spline, by means of an extensive simulation study considering multiples scenarios in terms of sample size, number of repeated measurements, and subject-specific correlation. Our experiments show that the capabilities of our proposal based on radial kernel functions are indeed comparable with or even better than those obtained from regression splines. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing data from two AIDS clinical studies.

Robust estimation and inference for general varying coefficient models with missing observations

This paper considers estimation and inference for a class of varying coefficient models in which some of the responses and some of the covariates are missing at random and outliers are present. The paper proposes two general estimators—and a computationally attractive and asymptotically equivalent one-step version of them—that combine inverse probability weighting and robust local linear estimation. The paper also considers inference for the unknown infinite-dimensional parameter and proposes two Wald statistics that are shown to have power under a sequence of local Pitman drifts and are consistent as the drifts diverge. The results of the paper are illustrated with three examples: robust local generalized estimating equations, robust local quasi-likelihood and robust local nonlinear least squares estimation. A simulation study shows that the proposed estimators and test statistics have competitive finite sample properties, whereas two empirical examples illustrate the applicability of the proposed estimation and testing methods.

Composite Quantile Regression for Varying Coefficient Models with Response Data Missing at Random

Composite quantile regression (CQR) estimation and inference are studied for varying coefficient models with response data missing at random. Three estimators including the weighted local linear CQR (WLLCQR) estimator, the nonparametric WLLCQR (NWLLCQR) estimator, and the imputed WLLCQR (IWLLCQR) estimator are proposed for unknown coefficient functions. Under some mild conditions, the proposed estimators are asymptotic normal. Simulation studies demonstrate that the unknown coefficient estimators with IWLLCQR are superior to the other two with WLLCQR and NWLLCQR. Moreover, bootstrap test procedures based on the IWLLCQR fittings is developed to test whether the coefficient functions are actually varying. Finally, a type of investigated real-life data is analyzed to illustrated the applications of the proposed method.

Modeling the salivary cortisol profile in population research: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

In many studies, it has been hypothesized that stress and its biologic consequences may contribute to disparities in rates of cardiovascular disease. However, understanding of the most appropriate statistical methods to analyze biologic markers of stress, such as salivary cortisol, remains limited. The authors explore the utility of various statistical methods in modeling daily cortisol profiles in population-based studies. They demonstrate that the proposed methods allow additional insight into the cortisol profile compared with commonly used summaries of the profiles based on raw data. For instance, one can gain insights regarding the shape of the population average curve, characterize the types of individual-level departures from the average curve, and better understand the relation between covariates and attained cortisol levels or slopes at various points of the day, in addition to drawing inferences regarding common features of the cortisol profile, such as the cortisol awakening response and the area under the curve. The authors compare the inference and interpretations drawn from these methods and use data collected as part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to illustrate them.

Finite mixture varying coefficient models for analyzing longitudinal heterogenous data

This paper aims to develop a mixture model to study heterogeneous longitudinal data on the treatment effect of heroin use from a California Civil Addict Program. Each component of the mixture is characterized by a varying coefficient mixed effect model. We use the Bayesian P-splines approach to approximate the varying coefficient functions. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate the smooth functions, unknown parameters, and latent variables in the model. We use modified deviance information criterion to determine the number of components in the mixture. A simulation study demonstrates that the modified deviance information criterion selects the correct number of components and the estimation of unknown quantities is accurate. We apply the proposed model to the heroin treatment study. Furthermore, we identify heterogeneous longitudinal patterns.

Should tumor VEGF expression influence decisions on combining low-dose chemotherapy with antiangiogenic therapy? Preclinical modeling in ovarian cancer

Because of its low toxicity, low-dose (LD) chemotherapy is ideally suited for combination with antiangiogenic drugs. We investigated the impact of tumor vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) expression on the efficacy of LD paclitaxel chemotherapy and its interactions with the tyrosine kinase inhibitor SU5416 in the ID8 and ID8-Vegf models of ovarian cancer. Functional linear models using weighted penalized least squares were utilized to identify interactions between Vegf, LD paclitaxel and antiangiogenic therapy. LD paclitaxel yielded additive effects with antiangiogenic therapy against tumors with low Vegf expression, while it exhibited antagonism to antiangiogenic therapy in tumors with high Vegf expression. This is the first preclinical study that models interactions of LD paclitaxel chemotherapy with antiangiogenic therapy and tumor VEGF expression and offers important lessons for the rational design of clinical trials.