Community organization moderates the effect of alcohol outlet density on violence

The Impact of Aggregate Level Alcohol Consumption on Homicide Rates: A Time Series Analysis

Consumption of alcohol has an impact on violent crimes and homicides. The study examines the association between aggregate level consumption of spirit and homicide rates in the State of Kerala in India. Time-series analyses were conducted by building Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMAX) models and OLS Regression models to explain the relationship between the monthly rate of consumption of alcoholic spirits and homicide rates. The study concludes that consumption of alcoholic spirits has a statistically significant impact on the total homicide rates and the male and female homicide rates. The study has significant policy implications being one of the first studies examining the relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide rates in India and suggesting methods to address challenges of adverse public health consequences associated with alcohol consumption.

Micro-temporal analyses of crime related to alcohol outlets: A comparison of outcomes over weekday, weekend, daytime and nighttime hours

INTRODUCTION

Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or off-premise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.

METHODS

Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.

RESULTS

Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods.

Neighborhood Ecological Models of Alcohol Outlet Density and Male–on–Female Domestic Violence: Accounting for Adjacent Place and Neighborhood Characteristics

Alcohol availability is a consistent predictor of domestic violence, including intimate partner violence. Less is known about the effects of alcohol availability in neighboring units of analysis on domestic violence. This study examined whether alcohol outlet density in Milwaukee, Wisconsin is associated with Male-on-Female domestic violence (MFDV). Using block groups as the unit of analysis ( N = 571), spatial regression models were estimated to model the relationship between the density of total, on-premise, and off-premise alcohol outlets on MFDV, while accounting for the spatial spillover effect (i.e., alcohol availability and neighborhood characteristics in focal and surrounding block groups). At the focal level, off-premise alcohol outlets are associated with MFDV, net of concentrated disadvantage, lack of health insurance, MFDV lag and total population. Additionally, off-premise alcohol outlet density in surrounding units of analysis is a significant predictor of MFDV. However, total and on-premise densities did not demonstrate a relationship with MFDV.

Crime generators or social capital organizations? Examining the effects of places of worship on neighborhood crime

Places of worship (POW) have traditionally been argued to have crime-reducing effects in neighborhoods because of their ability to produce social capital. Yet, the evidence for this proposition is surprisingly weak. Consequently, an alternative proposition, rooted in environmental criminology, suggests that POW might unintentionally operate as crime generators in neighborhoods insofar as they induce foot traffic and undermine guardianship and social control capabilities. Because of these competing propositions in combination with the limited number of studies on this topic, we conduct a block group analysis of crime, places of worship, well-established criminogenic facilities, and sociodemographic characteristics in Washington, DC. We estimate negative binomial regression models of both violent and property crime and find strong evidence for only one of the propositions, with the effects of POW being relatively strong in comparison to other predictors in the models. The implications of these findings for criminology, urban studies, and public policy are discussed.

Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Retail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.

DESIGN

Interrupted quasi-experiments using spatial panel population data from 3768 synthetic block areas over 6 years.

SETTING

City of Oakland, CA, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

City population.

MEASUREMENTS

Census-based socio-demographic estimates and counts of openings and closings of bars/pubs, restaurants and off-premises outlets related to assault, burglary and robbery crime incidents across synthetic Census blocks. Bayesian space-time models were used to assess agglomeration and churning and measure impacts of openings/closings on crime.

FINDINGS

Churning was substantial; openings followed closings for all outlets [bars/pubs, relative risk (RR) = 50.9, 95% credible interval (CI) = 3.0-449.9; restaurants, RR = 3.1, CI = 1.5-6.1; off-premises, RR = 23.5, CI = 2.0-129.8]. Bars/pub and restaurant openings agglomerated with other outlets (e.g., RR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.03 and RR = 1.01, CI = 1.00-1.01), but off-premises outlets did not. Covarying out effects related to outlet densities, bar/pub openings were related to a 3.5% increase in assaults (RR = 1.04, CI = 1.01-1.06) and 6.9% increase in robberies (RR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.11). Restaurant openings were related to a 5.3% increase in burglaries (RR = 1.05, CI = 1.04-1.06). Openings and closings of off-premises outlets were unrelated to all three crime types.

CONCLUSIONS

Retail alcohol outlets appear to follow a pattern of opening near to one another and replacing each other over time. Bar, pub and restaurant openings appear to be related to increases in neighborhood crime.

Agent-Based Modeling: an Underutilized Tool in Community Violence Research

Purpose of Review

Recent Findings

Summary

Collective efficacy and the built environment

Collective efficacy is a prominent explanation for neighborhood crime concentrations. Just as crime is concentrated in particular neighborhoods, within-neighborhoods crime is concentrated in particular criminogenic locations. Research suggests criminogenic locations are determined by features of the built environment. This study links collective efficacy with situational opportunity to propose that collective efficacy facilitates the removal of criminogenic features of the built environment. I test this by examining associations 1) between past collective efficacy and present criminogenic features of the built environment, as well as 2) between those built environment features and crime, net of present collective efficacy. These are modeled using piecewise structural equations with generalized linear mixed-effect regressions on data from 1,641 blocks in 343 Chicago neighborhoods. Four types of police-reported crime are modeled using eight block-level built environment features in the 2003 Chicago Community Area Health Study (CCAHS; N = 3,074) and neighborhood collective efficacy from the CCAHS and the 1995 Project in Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) Community Survey (N = 7,672). Findings suggest neighborhoods with high collective efficacy maintain low rates of crime in part by limiting criminogenic built environment features, in particular, abandoned buildings. This crime control pathway is important because changes to the built environment are long lasting and reduce the need for future interventions against crime.

Alcohol Outlet Clusters and Population Disparities

Alcohol outlet clusters are an important social determinant of health in cities, but little is known about the populations exposed to them. If outlets cluster in neighborhoods comprised of specific racial/ethnic or economic groups, then they may function as a root cause of urban health disparities. This study used 2016 liquor license data (n = 1204) from Baltimore City, Maryland, and demographic data from the American Community Survey. We defined alcohol outlet clusters by combining SaTScan moving window methods and distances between outlets. We used multiple logistic regression to compare census block groups (CBGs) (n = 537) inside and outside of four types of outlet clusters: total, on-premise, off-premise, and LBD-7 (combined on-/off-premise). The most robust predictor of alcohol outlet cluster membership was a history of redlining, i.e., racially discriminatory lending policies. CBGs that were redlined had 7.32 times the odds of being in an off-premise cluster, 8.07 times the odds of being in an on-premise cluster, and 8.60 times the odds of being in a LBD-7 cluster. In addition, level of economic investment (marked by vacant properties) appears to be a key characteristic that separates CBGs in on- and off-premise outlet clusters. CBGs with racial/ethnic or socioeconomic advantage had higher odds of being in on-premise clusters and CBGs marked by disinvestment had higher odds of being in off-premise clusters. Off-premise clusters deserve closer examination from a policy perspective, to mitigate their potential role in creating and perpetuating social and health disparities. In addition to addressing redlining and disinvestment, the current negative effects of alcohol outlet clusters that have grown up in redlined and disinvested areas must be addressed if inequities in these neighborhoods are to be reversed.

Exploring violence: The role of neighborhood characteristics, alcohol outlets, and other micro-places

This study explores the association between neighborhood characteristics, alcohol outlets, other micro-places, and neighborhood violence rates. Prior studies that examined the alcohol availability and violence associations suggested that alcohol outlets play an important role in violent outcomes, yet we know less about the larger environment in which alcohol outlets are located, including how the availability of other types of places that exist side by side with alcohol outlets in neighborhoods could influence the alcohol-violence relationships. I collected publicly available data on simple and aggravated assaults, neighborhood characteristics (concentrated disadvantage, concentrated immigration, residential stability, and ethnic heterogeneity), on- and off-premise outlets, and other micro-places (colleges and universities, primary and secondary schools, financial services, gas stations, hotels and motels, laundromats, parks and playgrounds, and rooming houses) and subsequently aggregated the data to Milwaukee, Wisconsin census block groups. I estimated spatially lagged regression models to test these associations and compared the results across the models. The findings show that some neighborhood characteristics and some micro-places are important predictors of neighborhood violence. Importantly, off-premise alcohol outlets have a consistently significant positive relationship with simple and aggravated assaults, even when the influence of the neighborhood characteristics and micro-places is accounted for in the models. This study contributes to the environmental criminology theories and alcohol availability theory by highlighting the importance of off-premise outlets as crime attractors and crime generators to explain violence.

Outlet Type, Access to Alcohol, and Violent Crime

BACKGROUND

While there are overwhelming data supporting the association between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, there remain conflicting findings about whether on- or off-premise outlets have a stronger association. This inconsistency may be in part a result of the methods used to calculate alcohol outlet density and violent crime. This analysis uses routine activity theory and spatial access methods to study the association between access to alcohol outlets and violent crime, including type of outlet and type of crime in Baltimore, MD.

METHODS

The data in this analysis include alcohol outlets from 2016 (n = 1,204), violent crimes from 2012 to 2016 (n = 51,006), and markers of social disorganization, including owner-occupied housing, median annual household income, drug arrests, and population density. The analysis used linear regression to determine the association between access to alcohol outlets and violent crime exposure.

RESULTS

Each 10% increase in alcohol outlet access was associated with a 4.2% increase in violent crime exposure (β = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33, 0.52, p < 0.001). A 10% increase in access to off-premise outlets (4.4%, β = 0.45, 95% CI 0.33, 0.57, p < 0.001) and LBD-7 outlets (combined off- and on-premise outlets; 4.2%, β = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33, 0.52, p < 0.001) had a greater association with violent crime than on-premise outlets (3.0%, β = 0.31, 95% CI 0.20, 0.41, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Access to outlets that allow for off-site consumption had a greater association with violent crime than outlets that only permit on-site consumption. The lack of effective measures to keep order in and around off-premise outlets could attract or multiply violent crime.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003-2013

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (-2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) -3-0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0-1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0-3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas (p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability (p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy.

Comparative approaches for assessing access to alcohol outlets: exploring the utility of a gravity potential approach

Background

A growing body of research recommends controlling alcohol availability to reduce harm. Various common approaches, however, provide dramatically different pictures of the physical availability of alcohol. This limits our understanding of the distribution of alcohol access, the causes and consequences of this distribution, and how best to reduce harm. The aim of this study is to introduce both a gravity potential measure of access to alcohol outlets, comparing its strengths and weaknesses to other popular approaches, and an empirically-derived taxonomy of neighborhoods based on the type of alcohol access they exhibit.

Methods

We obtained geospatial data on Seattle, including the location of 2402 alcohol outlets, United States Census Bureau estimates on 567 block groups, and a comprehensive street network. We used exploratory spatial data analysis and employed a measure of inter-rater agreement to capture differences in our taxonomy of alcohol availability measures.

Results

Significant statistical and spatial variability exists between measures of alcohol access, and these differences have meaningful practical implications. In particular, standard measures of outlet density (e.g., spatial, per capita, roadway miles) can lead to biased estimates of physical availability that over-emphasize the influence of the control variables. Employing a gravity potential approach provides a more balanced, geographically-sensitive measure of access to alcohol outlets.

Conclusions

Accurately measuring the physical availability of alcohol is critical for understanding the causes and consequences of its distribution and for developing effective evidence-based policy to manage the alcohol outlet licensing process. A gravity potential model provides a superior measure of alcohol access, and the alcohol access-based taxonomy a helpful evidence-based heuristic for scholars and local policymakers.

A Review of Existing Studies Reporting the Negative Effects of Alcohol Access and Positive Effects of Alcohol Control Policies on Interpersonal Violence

Alcohol consumption often leads to elevated rates of violence yet alcohol access policies continue to relax across the globe. Our review establishes the extent alcohol policy can moderate violent crime through alcohol availability restrictions. Results were informed from comprehensive selection of peer-reviewed journals from 1950 to October 2015. Our search identified 87 relevant studies on alcohol access and violence conducted across 12 countries. Seventeen studies included quasi-control design, and 23 conducted intervention analysis. Seventy-one (82%) reported a significant relationship between alcohol access and violent offenses. Alcohol outlet studies reported the greatest percentage of significant results (93%), with trading hours (63%), and alcohol price following (58%). Results from baseline studies indicated the effectiveness of increasing the price of commonly consumed alcohol, restricting the hours of alcohol trading, and limiting the number of alcohol outlets per region to prevent violent offenses. Unclear are the effects of tax reductions, restriction of on-premises re-entry, and different outlet types on violent crime. Further, the generalization of statistics over broad areas and the low number of control/intervention studies poses some concern for confounding or correlated effects on study results, and amount of information for local-level prevention of interpersonal violence. Future studies should focus on gathering longitudinal data, validating models, limiting crime data to peak drinking days and times, and wherever possible collecting the joint distribution between violent crime, intoxication, and place. A greater uptake of local-level analysis will benefit studies comparing the influence of multiple alcohol establishment types by relating the location of a crime to establishment proximity. Despite, some uncertainties particular studies showed that even modest policy changes, such as 1% increases in alcohol price, 1 h changes to closing times, and limiting establishment densities to <25 outlets per postal code substantively reduce violent crime.

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

Alcohol outlets, social disorganization, and robberies: accounting for neighborhood characteristics and alcohol outlet types

We estimated spatially lagged regression and spatial regime models to determine if the variation in total, on-premise, and off-premise alcohol outlet(1) density is related to robbery density, while controlling for direct and moderating effects of social disorganization.(2) Results suggest that the relationship between alcohol outlet density and robbery density is sensitive to the measurement of social disorganization levels. Total alcohol outlet density and off-premise alcohol outlet density were significantly associated with robbery density when social disorganization variables were included separately in the models. However, when social disorganization levels were captured as a four item index, only the association between off-premise alcohol outlets and robbery density remained significant. More work is warranted in identifying the role of off-premise alcohol outlets and their characteristics in robbery incidents.

A Spatial Analysis of Heterogeneity in the Link Between Alcohol Outlets and Assault Victimization: Differences Across Victim Subpopulations

The positive association between alcohol outlet density and assault rates is well established, but little is known about how this association differs across victim subpopulations. We use spatial point process models on police data from Flint, Michigan, to test how the link between alcohol outlet density and assault rates changes as a function of three victim characteristics: age, gender, and race. We found that, although both on-premises and package outlet densities consistently emerge as risk factors for victimization, their relative effects are markedly larger in Whites than in African Americans. No analogous age- or gender-based differences were found. These results suggest the racial effects arise more from relative differences in the atmosphere in and around alcohol outlets than differences in drinking behavior alone.

The impact of spatial and temporal availability of alcohol on its consumption and related harms: a critical review in the context of UK licensing policies

ISSUES

Reviews recommend controlling alcohol availability to limit alcohol-related harm. However, the translation of this evidence into policy processes has proved challenging in some jurisdictions.

APPROACH

This paper presents a critical review of empirical spatial and temporal availability research to identify its features and limitations for informing alcohol availability policies. The UK is used as an example jurisdiction. It reviews 138 studies from a 2008 systematic review of empirical availability research and our update of this to January 2014. Data describing study characteristics (settings, measures, design) were extracted and descriptively analysed.

KEY FINDINGS

Important limitations in current evidence were identified: (i) outlet-level temporal availability was only measured in three studies, and there has been little innovation in measurement of spatial availability; (ii) empirical analyses focus on acute harms with few studies of longer-term harms; (iii) outlets are typically classified at aggregated levels with little empirical analysis of variation within outlet categories; (iv) evidence comes from a narrow range of countries; and (v) availability away from home, online availability and interactions between availability, price and place are all relatively unexamined.

IMPLICATIONS

Greater innovation in study and measure design and enhanced data quality are required. Greater engagement between researchers and policy actors when developing studies would facilitate this.

CONCLUSIONS

Research and data innovations are needed to address a series of methodological gaps and limitations in the alcohol availability evidence base, advance this research area and enable findings to be translated effectively into policy processes.

Neighborhood alcohol outlet density and rates of child abuse and neglect: moderating effects of access to substance abuse services

This study investigates the relationship between concentrations of on- and off-premises alcohol outlets and rates of child abuse and neglect. Additionally, the study seeks to locate protective features of a neighborhood's built environment by investigating the potentially moderating role that access to substance abuse treatment and prevention services plays in the relationship between alcohol outlet density and child maltreatment. Using a cross-sectional design, this ecological study utilized data from 163 census tracts in Bergen County, New Jersey, on reports of child abuse and neglect, alcohol outlets, substance abuse treatment and prevention facilities, and the United States Census to investigate the linkages between socioeconomic structure, alcohol availability, and access to substance abuse service facilities on rates of child abuse and neglect. Findings indicate areas with a greater concentration of on-premises alcohol outlets (i.e., bars) had higher rates of child neglect, and those with easier access to substance abuse services had lower rates of neglect, controlling for neighborhood demographic and socioeconomic structure. Additionally, the relationship between on-premises alcohol outlet density and rates of child neglect was moderated by the presence of substance abuse service facilities. A greater concentration of off-premises outlets (i.e., liquor stores) was associated with lower rates of physical abuse. Findings suggest that the built environment and socioeconomic structure of neighborhoods have important consequences for child well-being. The implications for future research on the structural features of neighborhoods that are associated with child well-being are discussed.

Alcohol and Violence in a Nonmetropolitan College Town

This study examined the association between alcohol outlet density and violence in a nonmetropolitan college town. Nearly all prior empirical research examining this association has been undertaken in large urban cities. Using data on Bloomington, Indiana, block groups, we estimated ordinary least squared and spatially lagged regression models to determine whether alcohol outlet density was associated with assault density, and we also took into account the seriousness of violence (i.e., simple and aggravated assault) and different alcohol outlet types (i.e., off-premise, restaurants, and bars). The results showed that total alcohol outlet density was significantly associated with both simple and aggravated assault density in a nonmetropolitan college town. In addition, restaurant and bar densities were significantly associated with simple assault density, whereas off-premise and bar densities were significantly associated with aggravated assault density. These results not only extend the geographic scope of this relationship to nonmetropolitan towns but also have important policy implications.

Alcohol Outlets, Social Disorganization, Land Use, and Violence in a Large College Town

This study examined the direct and moderating effects of alcohol outlet density, social disorganization, and land use on violence in a large college town whose economy is driven by the presence of a flagship state university. Empirical literature points to a consistent association between alcohol outlet density and assault density, and recent research has found social disorganization and land use to moderate the association in urban areas. However, little research has been done to determine whether similar associations hold outside large urban cities. Using geocoded data on assaults and alcohol outlets in Bloomington, Indiana, we estimated ordinary least squares and spatially lagged regression models to determine whether social disorganization and land use moderate the association between alcohol outlet density and assault. We found a consistent association between outlet density and assault density. In contrast to the findings from urban areas, however, the direct effects of social disorganization and of seven land use types on simple assault density were nonsignificant, nor was social disorganization associated with aggravated assault. Further, the relationship between alcohol outlet density and assault density was moderated by neither social disorganization nor land use. Ecological characteristics like social disorganization and land use may matter less in smaller cities and towns than they do in large urban cities, both in terms of direct effects and when accounting for the relationship between alcohol outlet density and violence.