Risk Factors for Prescription Opioid-Related Death, Utah, 2008–2009

Leading consumption patterns of psychoactive substances in Colombia: A deep neural network-based clustering-oriented embedding approach

The number of health-related incidents caused using illegal and legal psychoactive substances (PAS) has dramatically increased over two decades worldwide. In Colombia, the use of illicit substances has increased up to 10.3%, while the consumption alcohol and tobacco has increased to 84% and 12%, respectively. It is well-known that identifying drug consumption patterns in the general population is essential in reducing overall drug consumption. However, existing approaches do not incorporate Machine Learning and/or Deep Data Mining methods in combination with spatial techniques. To enhance our understanding of mental health issues related to PAS and assist in the development of national policies, here we present a novel Deep Neural Network-based Clustering-oriented Embedding Algorithm that incorporates an autoencoder and spatial techniques. The primary goal of our model is to identify general and spatial patterns of drug consumption and abuse, while also extracting relevant features from the input data and identifying clusters during the learning process. As a test case, we used the largest publicly available database of legal and illegal PAS consumption comprising 49,600 Colombian households. We estimated and geographically represented the prevalence of consumption and/or abuse of both PAS and non-PAS, while achieving statistically significant goodness-of-fit values. Our results indicate that region, sex, housing type, socioeconomic status, age, and variables related to household finances contribute to explaining the patterns of consumption and/or abuse of PAS. Additionally, we identified three distinct patterns of PAS consumption and/or abuse. At the spatial level, these patterns indicate concentrations of drug consumption in specific regions of the country, which are closely related to specific geographic locations and the prevailing social and environmental contexts. These findings can provide valuable insights to facilitate decision-making and develop national policies targeting specific groups given their cultural, geographic, and social conditions.

Pathways connecting socioeconomic marginalization and overdose: A qualitative narrative synthesis

PURPOSE

This qualitative narrative synthesis sought to identify pathways connecting socioeconomic marginalization (SEM) and overdose for people who use drugs.

METHODS

We included studies with qualitative examination of SEM and fatal and non-fatal overdose published in English between 2000 and 2021. Studies were systematically identified and screened by searching MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), PsycINFO (EBSCOhost), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), Google Scholar, Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Cochrane Drug and Alcohol Group (CDAG) Specialized Registry, citations, and contacting experts. Risk of bias and quality assessments were performed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist and the Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative Research approach. Data were synthesized using a thematic synthesis approach.

RESULTS

The primary search strategy found 5909 articles that met the initial screening criteria. The review and screening process led to a final dataset of 27 qualitative articles. The four key findings of this narrative synthesis revealed aspects of SEM which shaped drug poisoning risk for people who use drugs: (1) resource insufficiency, labor market exclusion and deindustrialization, (2) homelessness and housing, (3) policing, criminalization, and interactions with emergency services, and (4) gendered and racialized dimensions of inequality. Findings led to creating a typology that includes material, behavioral, psychological, social, and environmental pathways that contain multiple mechanisms connecting SEM to overdose. This review revealed reciprocal connections between overdose and SEM via institutional pathways with reinforcing mechanisms, and interrelationships present within and between pathways. Quality assessments indicated moderate confidence in three of four findings (Findings 2,3, and 4 above) and high confidence in one finding (Finding 1).

CONCLUSION

SEM is strongly linked to drug poisoning, and the mechanisms establishing these connections can be classified within four pathways. The interconnectedness of these mechanisms can lead to intensification of overdose risk and reinforcement of SEM itself.

Estimation of the Prevalence of Delayed Dispensing Among Opioid Prescriptions From US Surgeons and Dentists

IMPORTANCE

Dispensing of opioid prescriptions from dentists and surgeons more than 30 days after writing, or delayed dispensing, could be a potential indicator that opioids were used for reasons or during a time frame other than that intended by the prescriber. The prevalence of delayed dispensing is unknown. Whether laws can prevent delayed dispensing by shortening the maximum period between prescription writing and dispensing is also unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of delayed dispensing among opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists, assess the maximum period US states allow between controlled substance prescription writing and dispensing, and evaluate whether laws shortening this period decrease delayed dispensing of opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional analysis, data from the IQVIA Formulary Impact Analyzer (representing 63% of US prescriptions) were used to identify opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists dispensed from 2014 through 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Among opioid prescriptions dispensed in 2019, the proportion with delayed dispensing was calculated. Using legal databases, the maximum state-allowed period between controlled substance prescription writing and dispensing as of December 2019 was examined. Using a difference-in-differences design and 2014 to 2019 data, changes in delayed dispensing prevalence were evaluated among opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists after a Minnesota law was enacted in July 2019 precluding opioid prescription dispensing more than 30 days after writing. Control states allowed dispensing beyond this period.

RESULTS

In 2019, the database included 20 858 413 opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists for 14 789 984 patients; 8 582 029 (58.0%) were female. The mean (SD) patient age was 47.1 (19.3) years. Of prescriptions included, 194 452 (0.9%) had delayed dispensing. As of December 2019, the maximum period between drug writing and dispensing was 180 days in 18 and 43 states for Schedule II and III drugs, respectively. Compared with control states, Minnesota's law decreased delayed dispensing prevalence by 0.22 percentage points (95% CI, -0.32 to -0.13 percentage points).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, 194 452 opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists were dispensed more than 30 days after writing. To mitigate any prescription opioid misuse associated with delayed dispensing, policy makers could shorten the maximum period between writing and dispensing of opioid prescriptions from surgeons and dentists.

Health harms of non-medical prescription opioid use: A systematic review

ISSUES

Non-medical prescription opioid use (NMPOU) contributes substantially to the global burden of morbidity. However, no systematic assessment of the scientific literature on the associations between NMPOU and health outcomes has yet been undertaken.

APPROACH

We undertook a systematic review evaluating health outcomes related to NMPOU based on ICD-10 clinical domains. We searched 13 electronic databases for original research articles until 1 July 2021. We employed an adaptation of the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine 'Levels of Evidence' scale to assess study quality.

KEY FINDINGS

Overall, 182 studies were included. The evidence base was largest on the association between NMPOU and mental and behavioural disorders; 71% (129) studies reported on these outcomes. Less evidence exists on the association of NMPOU with infectious disease outcomes (26; 14%), and on external causes of morbidity and mortality, with 13 (7%) studies assessing its association with intentional self-harm and 1 study assessing its association with assault (<1%).

IMPLICATIONS

A large body of evidence has identified associations between NMPOU and opioid use disorder as well as on fatal and non-fatal overdose. We found equivocal evidence on the association between NMPOU and the acquisition of HIV, hepatitis C and other infectious diseases. We identified weak evidence regarding the potential association between NMPOU and intentional self-harm, suicidal ideation and assault.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Findings may inform the prevention of harms associated with NMPOU, although higher-quality research is needed to characterise the association between NMPOU and the full spectrum of physical and mental health disorders.

Effects of County-Level Opioid Dispensing Rates on Individual-Level Patterns of Prescription Opioid and Heroin Consumption: Evidence From National U.S. Data

OBJECTIVE

The authors examined directly whether county-level changes in opioid dispensing rates affect individual-level prescription opioid misuse, frequency of use, and dependence, as well as the same outcomes for heroin.

METHODS

Using data from the restricted-access National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's retail opioid prescription database, the Prescription Drug Abuse Policy System, and the U.S. Census, the authors applied fixed-effects models to determine whether county-level dispensing rates affected prescription opioid outcomes as intended and whether changes in rates adversely affected heroin use outcomes. Bayes factors were used to confirm evidence for null findings.

RESULTS

The sample included 748,800 respondents age 12 and older from 2006 to 2016. The odds of prescription opioid misuse, increased frequency of misuse, and dependence were 7.2%, 3.5%, and 10.4% higher, respectively, per standard deviation increase in the county-level opioid dispensing rate per 100 persons. There was no evidence for any association between opioid dispensing rates and the three heroin outcomes. The odds ratio was nonsignificant according to frequentist techniques in fixed-effects models, and Bayesian techniques confirmed very strong support for the null hypothesis.

CONCLUSIONS

County-level opioid dispensing rates are directly associated with individual-level prescription opioid misuse, frequency of misuse, and dependence. Changes in dispensing were not associated with population shifts in heroin use. Reductions in opioid dispensing rates have contributed to stemming prior increases in prescription opioid misuse while not adversely affecting heroin use. Physicians and other health care providers can take action to minimize opioid dispensing for tangible benefits regarding prescription opioid misuse without adverse effects on heroin use.

Mental disorder and opioid overdose: a systematic review

PURPOSE

This systematic review summarizes and presents the current state of research quantifying the relationship between mental disorder and overdose for people who use opioids.

METHODS

The protocol was published in Open Science Framework. We used the PECOS framework to frame the review question. Studies published between January 1, 2000, and January 4, 2021, from North America, Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand were systematically identified and screened through searching electronic databases, citations, and by contacting experts. Risk of bias assessments were performed. Data were synthesized using the lumping technique.

RESULTS

Overall, 6512 records were screened and 38 were selected for inclusion. 37 of the 38 studies included in this review show a connection between at least one aspect of mental disorder and opioid overdose. The largest body of evidence exists for internalizing disorders generally and mood disorders specifically, followed by anxiety disorders, although there is also moderate evidence to support the relationship between thought disorders (e.g., schizophrenia, bipolar disorder) and opioid overdose. Moderate evidence also was found for the association between any disorder and overdose.

CONCLUSION

Nearly all reviewed studies found a connection between mental disorder and overdose, and the evidence suggests that having mental disorder is associated with experiencing fatal and non-fatal opioid overdose, but causal direction remains unclear.

Framing Kin Resistance to Opioid Overdose in Philadelphia

Interviews with close kin of those who died from opioid overdose in Philadelphia in 2017 reveal myriad strategies that families employ to minimize overdose risk, secure treatment options, and mitigate everyday precarity that can result from heroin addiction. Their efforts to keep kin alive - at times contradictory, conflicted, desperate and, in the end, ineffectual - reveal deeply situated structural vulnerabilities. When understood as "resistance" to death, however, kin strategies return us to a vital tenet of harm reduction - the imperative to develop programs in collaboration with those most impacted, in this case families at risk of overdose fatality.

Perioperative Opioids, the Opioid Crisis, and the Anesthesiologist

This review summarizes current evidence related to perioperative opioid prescription fulfillment and use and discusses the role of personalized anesthesia care in mitigating opioid-related harms without compromising analgesia.

The leading neighborhood-level predictors of drug overdose: A mixed machine learning and spatial approach

BACKGROUND

Drug overdose is a leading cause of unintentional death in the United States and has contributed significantly to a decline in life expectancy during recent years. To combat this health issue, this study aims to identify the leading neighborhood-level predictors of drug overdose and develop a model to predict areas at the highest risk of drug overdose using geographic information systems and machine learning (ML) techniques.

METHOD

Neighborhood-level (block group) predictors were grouped into three domains: socio-demographic factors, drug use variables, and protective resources. We explored different ML algorithms, accounting for spatial dependency, to identify leading predictors in each domain. Using geographically weighted regression and the best-performing ML algorithm, we combined the output prediction of three domains to produce a final ensemble model. The model performance was validated using classification evaluation metrics, spatial cross-validation, and spatial autocorrelation testing.

RESULTS

The variables contributing most to the predictive model included the proportion of households with food stamps, households with an annual income below $35,000, opioid prescription rate, smoking accessories expenditures, and accessibility to opioid treatment programs and hospitals. Compared to the error estimated from normal cross-validation, the generalized error of the model did not increase considerably in spatial cross-validation. The ensemble model using ML outperformed the GWR method.

CONCLUSION

This study identified strong neighborhood-level predictors that place a community at risk of experiencing drug overdoses, as well as protective factors. Our findings may shed light on several specific avenues for targeted intervention in neighborhoods at risk for high drug overdose burdens.

Socioeconomic correlates of incident and fatal opioid overdose among Swedish people with opioid use disorder

Background

Opioid overdose (OD) and opioid OD death are major health threats to people with opioid use disorder (OUD). Socioeconomic factors are underexplored potential determinants of opioid OD. In this study, we assessed socioeconomic and other factors and their associations with incident and fatal opioid OD, in a cohort consisting of 22,079 individuals with OUD.

Methods

We performed a retrospective, longitudinal study based on Swedish national register data for the period January 2005–December 2017. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the risk of incident and fatal opioid OD as a function of several individual, parental and neighborhood covariates.

Results

Univariate analysis showed that several covariates were associated with incident and fatal opioid OD. In the multivariate analysis, incident opioid OD was associated with educational attainment (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94–0.97), having received social welfare (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.22–1.39), and criminal conviction (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.42–1.65). Fatal opioid OD was also associated with criminal conviction (HR 1.93; 95% CI 1.61–2.32).

Conclusion

Individuals with low education and receipt of social welfare had higher risks of incident opioid OD and individuals with criminal conviction were identified as a risk group for both incident and fatal opioid OD. Our findings should raise attention among health prevention policy makers in general, and among decision-makers within the criminal justice system and social services in particular.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13011-021-00409-3.

Primary prevention of prescription opioid diversion: a systematic review of medication disposal interventions

Background: In the U.S., 50-75% of nonmedical users of prescription opioids obtain their pills through diversion by friends or relatives. Increasing disposal of unused opioid prescriptions is a fundamental primary prevention strategy in combatting the opioid epidemic.Objectives: To identify interventions for disposal of unused opioid pills and assess the evidence of their effectiveness on disposal-related outcomes.Methods: A search of four electronic databases was conducted (October 2019). We included all empirical studies, systematic literature reviews, and meta-analyses about study medication disposal interventions in the U.S. Studies of disposal interventions that did not include opioids were excluded. We abstracted data for the selected articles to describe the study design, and outcomes. Further, we assessed the quality of each study using the NIH Study Quality Assessment Tools.Results: We identified 25 articles that met our inclusion criteria. None of the 13 studies on drug take-back events or the two studies on donation boxes could draw conclusions about their effectiveness. Although studies on educational interventions found positive effects on knowledge acquisition, they did not find differences in disposal rates. Two randomized controlled trials on drug disposal bags found higher opioid disposal rates in their intervention arms compared to the control arms (57.1% vs 28.6% and 33.3%, p = .01; and 85.7% vs 64.9%, p = .03).Conclusions: Peer-reviewed publications on opioid disposal interventions are limited and either do not address effectiveness or have conflicting findings. Future research should address these limitations and further evaluate implementation and cost-effectiveness.

Evaluation of opioid prescription patterns among patients undergoing thyroid surgery

BACKGROUND

There is variability in opioid prescription patterns among surgeons performing thyroidectomy. Thus, the aim of this study is to evaluate opioid prescription rates and opioid use among hemithyroidectomy (HT) and total thyroidectomy (TT) patients.

DESIGN/METHOD

An electronic postoperative survey was distributed to assess opiate use among patients undergoing HT/TT. Groups were compared using t-tests, chi-square tests, and analysis of variance.

RESULTS

A total of 142 opiate naïve patients were included, of which 75 (52.8%) underwent HT and 67 (47.1%) underwent TT. The mean number of tablets prescribed was 21.3 (HT = 22.1, TT = 20.4; P = 0.3), with a mean of 14.1 tablets unused after surgery (HT = 13.2 tablets, TT = 15.0 tablets; P = 0.44). The mean morphine milligram equivalent (MME) prescribed was 150.1 mg (HT = 159.0 mg, TT = 140.2 mg; P = 0.3), with a mean of 98.2 MME unused after surgery (HT = 93.7 mg, TT = 103.2 mg; P = 0.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Opioids are overprescribed after thyroid surgery. Avoidance of overprescribing is vital in mitigating the current opioid crisis.

Socioeconomic marginalization and opioid-related overdose: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic marginalization (SEM) is an important but under-explored determinant of opioid overdose with important implications for health equity and associated public policy initiatives. This systematic review synthesizes evidence on the role of SEM in both fatal and non-fatal overdose among people who use opioids.

METHODS

Studies published between January 1, 2000 and March 31, 2018 were identified through searching electronic databases, citations, and by contacting experts. The titles, abstracts, citation information, and descriptor terms of citations were screened by two team members. Data were synthesized using the lumping technique.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the review, with 34 of 37 finding a significant association between at least one socioeconomic factor and overdose. The included studies contained variables related to eight socioeconomic factors: criminal justice system involvement, income, employment, social support, health insurance, housing/homelessness, education, and composite measures of socio-economic status. Most studies found associations in the hypothesized direction, whereby increased SEM was associated with a higher rate or increased likelihood of the overdose outcome measured. The review revealed an underdeveloped evidence base.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly all reviewed studies found a connection between a socioeconomic variable and overdose, but more research is needed with an explicit focus on SEM, using robust and nuanced measures that capture multiple dimensions of disadvantage, and collect data over time to better inform decision making around opioid overdose.

Mortality Following Nonfatal Opioid and Sedative/Hypnotic Drug Overdose

INTRODUCTION

Opioid and sedative/hypnotic drug overdoses are major causes of morbidity in the U.S. This study compares 12-month incidence of fatal unintentional drug overdose, suicide, and other mortality among emergency department patients presenting with nonfatal opioid or sedative/hypnotic overdose.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study using statewide, longitudinally linked emergency department patient record and mortality data from California. Participants comprised all residents presenting to a licensed emergency department at least once in 2009-2011 with nonfatal unintentional opioid overdose, sedative/hypnotic overdose, or neither (a 5% random sample). Participants were followed for 1 year after index emergency department presentation to assess death from unintentional overdose, suicide, or other causes, ascertained using ICD-10 codes. Absolute death rates per 100,000 person years and standardized mortality ratios relative to the general population were calculated. Data were analyzed February-August 2019.

RESULTS

Following the index emergency department visit, unintentional overdose death rates per 100,000 person years were 1,863 following opioid overdose, 342 following sedative/hypnotic overdose, and 31 for reference patients without an index overdose (respective standardized mortality ratios of 106.1, 95% CI=95.2, 116.9; 24.5, 95% CI=21.3, 27.6; and 2.6, 95% CI=2.2, 3.0). Suicide mortality rates per 100,000 were 319, 174, and 32 following opioid overdose, sedative/hypnotic overdose, and reference visits, respectively. Natural causes mortality rates per 100,000 were 8,058 (opioid overdose patients), 17,301 (sedative/hypnotic overdose patients), and 3,097 (reference patients).

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency department patients with nonfatal opioid or sedative/hypnotic drug overdose have exceptionally high risks of death from unintentional overdose, suicide, and other causes. Emergency department-based interventions offer potential for reducing these patients' overdose and other mortality risks.

Socioeconomic risk factors for fatal opioid overdoses in the United States: Findings from the Mortality Disparities in American Communities Study (MDAC)

BACKGROUND

Understanding relationships between individual-level demographic, socioeconomic status (SES) and U.S. opioid fatalities can inform interventions in response to this crisis.

METHODS

The Mortality Disparities in American Community Study (MDAC) links nearly 4 million 2008 American Community Survey responses to the 2008-2015 National Death Index. Univariate and multivariable models were used to estimate opioid overdose fatality hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Opioid overdose was an overrepresented cause of death among people 10 to 59 years of age. In multivariable analysis, compared to Hispanics, Whites and American Indians/Alaska Natives had elevated risk (HR = 2.52, CI:2.21-2.88) and (HR = 1.88, CI:1.35-2.62), respectively. Compared to women, men were at-risk (HR = 1.61, CI:1.50-1.72). People who were disabled were at higher risk than those who were not (HR = 2.80, CI:2.59-3.03). Risk was higher among widowed than married (HR = 2.44, CI:2.03-2.95) and unemployed than employed individuals (HR = 2.46, CI:2.17-2.79). Compared to adults with graduate degrees, those with high school only were at-risk (HR = 2.48, CI:2.00-3.06). Citizens were more likely than noncitizens to die from this cause (HR = 4.62, CI:3.48-6.14). Compared to people who owned homes with mortgages, those who rented had higher HRs (HR = 1.36, CI:1.25-1.48). Non-rural residents had higher risk than rural residents (HR = 1.46, CI:1.34, 1.59). Compared to respective referent groups, people without health insurance (HR = 1.30, CI:1.20-1.41) and people who were incarcerated were more likely to die from opioid overdoses (HR = 2.70, CI:1.91-3.81). Compared to people living in households at least five-times above the poverty line, people who lived in poverty were more likely to die from this cause (HR = 1.36, CI:1.20-1.54). Compared to people living in West North Central states, HRs were highest among those in South Atlantic (HR = 1.29, CI:1.11, 1.50) and Mountain states (HR = 1.58, CI:1.33, 1.88).

DISCUSSION

Opioid fatality was associated with indicators of low SES. The findings may help to target prevention, treatment and rehabilitation efforts to vulnerable groups.

Do prescription drug monitoring programs encourage prescription - or illicit - opioid abuse?

BACKGROUND

Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) are tools that states can use to fight prescription opioid misuse within their jurisdiction. However, because PDMPs make prescription opioids more difficult to access, these programs may have the unintended consequence of increasing deaths related to illicit opioids. Methods: This study uses fixed effects models to estimate how PDMP regulatory strength is associated with both prescription opioid- and heroin-related deaths between 1999 and 2016. PDMP regulatory strength is measured by creating a score using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). Additional models replace the MCA score with a binary indicator for the presence of one particular regulation requiring physicians to access the system before writing opioid prescriptions. Results: Results show that continuous measures of PDMP strength are not generally associated with prescription opioid- or heroin-related death rates. Yet, one model does show that PDMP scores are positively associated with the heroin-related death rate. The models using the binary mandatory access variable show a strong positive association with both prescription opioid and heroin deaths. Conclusions: This study supports the theory that more stringent state PDMPs are associated with higher rates of heroin-related deaths, potentially due to decreases in prescription opioid availability.

Characteristics and circumstances of heroin and pharmaceutical opioid overdose deaths: Comparison across opioids

BACKGROUND

Although much is known about the correlates of heroin overdose, less is known about pharmaceutical opioid (PO) overdose. This study aimed to examine correlates of opioid overdose deaths by opioid and compare correlates between opioids.

METHODS

Analysis of opioid overdose deaths in Australia between 2000-2015, extracted from the National Coronial Information System (NCIS). The NCIS is an online database of deaths reportable to the coroner, and contains coroner's findings, autopsy and toxicology reports. Deaths were categorized into mutually exclusive groups: 1) Heroin deaths; and 2) PO deaths (excluding heroin). PO deaths were examined by individual opioid.

RESULTS

There were 10,795 opioid overdose deaths over the study period. Relative to deaths occurring in major cities, deaths in regional/remote areas had 15.2 (95 % CI: 11.5-20.2) times the risk of being attributed to pharmaceutical fentanyl than heroin. Relative to deaths among people without a recorded history of chronic pain, deaths among people with a recorded history of chronic pain had a 1.9-10.7-fold increased risk of the death being attributed to POs than heroin. Deaths among people with a recorded history of substance use problems where the opioid was injected prior to death had 7.2 and 1.7 times the risk of being attributed to methadone and pharmaceutical fentanyl (respectively) than heroin.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest the need to: educate PO consumers about the risks of overdose at the time of prescribing; increase coverage and engagement in opioid dependence treatment (particularly in regional/remote areas); and increase uptake of take-home naloxone to reduce opioid overdose mortality.

Spatial analysis of drug poisoning deaths in the American west: A comparison study using profile regression to adjust for collinearity and spatial correlation

BACKGROUND

The USA has seen dramatic increases in drug poisoning deaths (DPD) recently. State-level rates have responded to federal and state initiatives, yet the counties with the highest rates are stable. Spatial analysis enables investigators to identify the highest risk counties and most important risk factors, although results are often confounded by spatial autocorrelation and multicollinearity.

METHODS

Profile regression (PR) is an integrated method for cluster and regression analysis, which adjusts for spatial-autocorrelation and multi-collinearity.

RESULTS

With PR, three clusters were identified in the Western USA with most of NM, NV and UT and several counties in AZ, CO, ID and WY being high-risk. Cluster analysis in a previous study only identified high-risk counties in northern CA, NM and NV. Elevation, suicide and LDS population were positively, and population density was negatively linked with DPD for PR and standard regression (SR) showing differences between the mountain west and coastal areas. Complex relationships between DPD and several variables were identified by PR which was not possible with SR.

CONCLUSIONS

Statistically principled methods like PR are needed for appropriate identification of the highest risk counties and important risk factors given the complex relationships with DPD. Funding for prevention, education and medical services should be targeted at rural, mountain communities in the west which have high %LDS and suicide rates. Counties with high %poverty and %Hispanic were also at high-risk. Individual-level studies are needed to confirm important risk factors in high-risk counties.

Opioid use and misuse: health impact, prevalence, correlates and interventions

Objective: To provide a broad overview of the state of drug misuse research, particularly focusing on opioid drug use in the U.S.A. Design: An overview of published reviews of the literature. Results: Prescription opioid use has increased globally from 2008 to 2013, while use of opiates such as heroin and opium have remained stable in many countries, although, decreases have been observed in parts of Europe. Opioid misuse is highest in the United States; approximately 11.8 million Americans misused opioids in 2016. Demographic, genetic, psychosocial and structural/environmental factors all play a role in determining who will become an opioid misuser. Strategies such as increased prescribing of non-opioid derived pain relievers, expansion of medication treatment, distribution of naloxone for overdose reversal and supervised consumption sites are some of the solutions posed to reduce the spread and consequences of opioid misuse. Conclusion: Research focused on understanding of opioid neurobiology, as well as empirically based, effective alternatives to pain management and implementation studies on combined prevention and treatment approaches are needed. It will take the combined effort of community members, healthcare professionals, policymakers and researchers in order to prevent and treat opioid misuse.

Binge Drinking and Prescription Opioid Misuse in the U.S., 2012-2014

INTRODUCTION

Prescription opioids were responsible for approximately 17,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2016. One in five prescription opioid deaths also involve alcohol. Drinkers who misuse prescription opioids (i.e., use without a prescription or use only for the experience or feeling it causes) are at a heightened risk of overdose. However, little is known about the relationship between drinking patterns and prescription opioid misuse.

METHODS

Data were analyzed from 160,812 individuals (aged ≥12 years) who responded to questions about prescription opioid misuse and alcohol consumption in the 2012, 2013, or 2014 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (analyzed in 2017-2018). The prevalence of self-reported past-30-days prescription opioid misuse was assessed by sociodemographic characteristics, other substance use (i.e., cigarettes, marijuana), and drinking patterns. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to calculate AORs.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2014, 1.6% (95% CI=1.5, 1.7) of all individuals aged ≥12 years (estimated 4.2 million) and 3.5% (95% CI=3.3, 3.8) of binge drinkers (estimated 2.2 million) reported prescription opioid misuse. Prescription opioid misuse was more common among binge drinkers than among nondrinkers (AOR=1.7, 95% CI=1.5, 1.9). Overall, the prevalence of prescription opioid misuse increased significantly with binge drinking frequency (p-value<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of the 4.2 million people who misused prescription opioids during 2012-2014 were binge drinkers, and binge drinkers had nearly twice the odds of misusing prescription opioids, compared with nondrinkers. Widespread use of evidence-based strategies for preventing binge drinking might reduce opioid misuse and overdoses involving alcohol.

Deaths among opioid users: impact of potential inappropriate prescribing practices

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between potential inappropriate prescribing practices of opioids and deaths among opioid users in the Georgia Medicaid population.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of individual pharmacy claims data from Georgia Medicaid from 2009 through 2014.

METHODS

The sample was restricted to patients without cancer aged 18 to 64 years with an opioid prescription and included 3,562,227 observations representing 401,488 individuals. A descriptive analysis and a multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted.

RESULTS

Results indicate a total of 14,516 deaths among opioid users in the study sample, of whom approximately 42% experienced at least 1 incidence of potential inappropriate prescribing practices. Regression results indicate that the odds of opioid users experiencing death were 1.76 times higher for those who experienced at least 1 incidence of potential inappropriate prescribing practices of opioids compared with those who did not experience any incidence, even after controlling for other covariates (P <.001). Moreover, opioid users in managed care Medicaid were less likely to experience death compared with fee-for-service (FFS) enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between potential inappropriate opioid prescribing practices and deaths among opioid users in Georgia Medicaid, with FFS enrollees experiencing higher rates of death compared with managed care enrollees. Appropriate policies and interventions targeted at reducing potential inappropriate prescribing practices may help reduce the risk factors associated with mortality among opioid users in this population.

Substance use and population life expectancy in the USA: Interactions with health inequalities and implications for policy

Life expectancy at birth for the USA has not increased in recent years. This commentary assesses the impact of substance use on this phenomenon. Although crude mortality rates of the most important causes of death (such as cardiovascular diseases or cancer) have declined between 2010 and 2014, crude mortality rates of drug- and alcohol-induced causes of death have increased. Alcohol use, non-medical prescription drug use (especially prescription opioid use) and illicit drug use have likely played a crucial role in life expectancy trends of the past years. Importantly, the current mortality crisis due to substances is disproportionately borne in lower socio-economic strata. As such, policies should reduce this impact.

Service Use Preceding Opioid-Related Fatality

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed health service patterns before opioid-related death among nonelderly individuals in the Medicaid program, focusing on decedents with and without past-year diagnoses of noncancer chronic pain.

METHODS

The authors identified opioid-related decedents, age ≤64 years, in the Medicaid program and characterized their clinical diagnoses, filled medication prescriptions, and nonfatal poisoning events during the 30 days and 12 months before death. The study group included 13,089 opioid-related deaths partitioned by presence or absence of chronic noncancer pain diagnoses in the last year of life.

RESULTS

Most decedents (61.5%) had received clinical diagnoses of chronic noncancer pain conditions in the last year of life. As compared with decedents without chronic pain diagnoses, those with these diagnoses were significantly more likely to have filled prescriptions for opioids (49.0% versus 17.2%) and benzodiazepines (52.1% versus 26.6%) during the last 30 days of life, while diagnoses of opioid use disorder during this period were uncommon in both groups (4.2% versus 4.3%). The chronic pain group was also significantly more likely than the nonpain group to receive clinical diagnoses of drug use (40.8% versus 22.1%), depression (29.6% versus 13.0%) or anxiety (25.8% versus 8.4%) disorders during the last year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons dying of opioid-related causes, particularly those who were diagnosed with chronic pain conditions, commonly received services related to drug use disorders and mental disorders in the last year of life, though opioid use disorder diagnoses near the time of death were rare.

Sources of Prescription Medication Misuse Among Young Adults in the United States: The Role of Educational Status

OBJECTIVE

This study examined prescription drug misuse (PDM), sources of PDM, and substance use disorder (SUD) symptoms as a function of educational status among US young adults based on a large nationally representative sample.

METHODS

Data from the 2009-2014 National Survey on Drug Use and Health came from a sample of 106,845 young adults aged 18-25 years. Respondents were categorized by educational status and PDM, sources of PDM, other substance use, and SUD symptoms, with analyses performed separately for prescription opioids, stimulants, and sedatives/tranquilizers.

RESULTS

Prescription opioid (past-year: 11.9%) and sedative/tranquilizer (past-year: 5.8%) misuse were most prevalent among young adults not attending college, especially among high school dropouts. In contrast, full-time college students and college graduates had the highest rates of prescription stimulant misuse (past-year: 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively). Obtaining prescription medications from friends/relatives for free was the most common source of PDM, especially among college students/graduates. Prescription drug misusers who obtained medications from theft/fake prescriptions, purchases, or multiple sources were more likely to report past-year SUDs and had the most severe overall risk profile of concurrent substance use and SUD. More than 70% of past-month prescription drug misusers who reported multiple sources for PDM had at least 1 past-year SUD.

CONCLUSIONS

Sources of PDM vary by educational status among US young adults, and the college environment is associated with sharing prescription medications. Clinicians can help assess an individual's risk for SUD by determining whether the individual engaged in PDM and the source of prescription medication the individual is misusing.

Decreases of Life Expectancy Despite Decreases in Non-Communicable Disease Mortality: The Role of Substance Use and Socioeconomic Status

With the epidemiological transition, causes of death shifted from communicable to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and life expectancy increased, as these NCD deaths occurred later in life. However, in the United States, over the past years, life expectancy has been stagnating or decreasing despite decreasing NCD mortality rates. Analyses of the most important underlying causes of death with increasing premature mortality reveal that psychoactive substance use played a crucial role for these increases. Furthermore, it can be shown, that a high proportion of the increased premature mortality and decreased life expectancies happened in lower socio-economic strata. Substance use policies should thus focus on lowering the gap between substance-attributable mortality in higher versus lower socioeconomic strata.

Risk Factors for Serious Prescription Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression or Overdose: Comparison of Commercially Insured and Veterans Health Affairs Populations

Objective

To characterize the risk factors associated with overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (OIRD) among medical users of prescription opioids in a commercially insured population (CIP) and to compare risk factor profiles between the CIP and Veterans Health Administration (VHA) population.

Subjects and Methods

Analysis of data from 18,365,497 patients in the IMS PharMetrics Plus health plan claims database (CIP) who were dispensed a prescription opioid in 2009 to 2013. Baseline factors associated with an event of serious OIRD among 7,234 cases and 28,932 controls were identified using multivariable logistic regression. The CIP risk factor profile was compared with that from a corresponding logistic regression among 817 VHA cases and 8,170 controls in 2010 to 2012.

Results

The strongest associations with serious OIRD in CIP were diagnosed substance use disorder (odds ratio [OR] = 10.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.06-11.40) and depression (OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.84-3.42). Other strongly associated factors included other mental health disorders; impaired liver, renal, vascular, and pulmonary function; prescribed fentanyl, methadone, and morphine; higher daily opioid doses; and concurrent psychoactive medications. These risk factors, except depression, vascular disease, and specific opioids, largely aligned with VHA despite CIP being substantially younger, including more females and less chronic disease, and having greater prescribing prevalence of higher daily opioid doses, specific opioids, and most selected nonopioids.

Conclusions

Risk factor profiles for serious OIRD among US medical users of prescription opioids with private or public health insurance were largely concordant despite substantial differences between the populations in demographics, clinical conditions, health care delivery systems, and clinical practices.

Risk markers for fatal and non-fatal prescription drug overdose: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug overdose is a public health crisis in the United States, due in part to the unintended consequences of increases in prescribing of opioid analgesics. Many clinicians evaluate risk markers for opioid-related harms when prescribing opioids for chronic pain; however, more data on predictive risk markers are needed. Risk markers are attributes (modifiable and non-modifiable) that are associated with increased probability of an outcome. This review aims to identify risk markers associated with fatal and non-fatal prescription drug overdose by synthesizing findings in the existing peer-reviewed and grey literature. Eligible cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, and case-cohort studies were reviewed and data were extracted for qualitative and quantitative synthesis.

FINDINGS

Summary odds ratios (SOR) were estimated from 29 studies for six risk markers: sex, age, race, psychiatric disorders, substance use disorder (SUD), and urban/rural residence. Heterogeneity was assessed and effect estimates were stratified by study characteristics. Of the six risk markers identified, SUD had the strongest association with drug overdose death (SOR = 5.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.53 - 7.76), followed by psychiatric disorders (SOR = 3.94, 95% CI = 3.09 - 5.01), white race (SOR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.93 - 2.70), the 35-44 year age group relative to the 25-34 year reference group (SOR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.31 - 1.76), and male sex (SOR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.17 - 1.51).

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights fatal and non-fatal prescription drug risk markers most frequently assessed in peer-reviewed and grey literature. There is a need to better understand modifiable risk markers and underlying reasons for drug misuse in order to inform interventions that may prevent future drug overdoses.

Social determinants of drug-related mortality in a general population

BACKGROUND

We investigated the association between social determinants and a broad selection of drug-related deaths in a general population.

METHODS

We conducted a follow-up of an 11% random sample of working-age Finnish residents for 1996-2007 linked with an oversampling of deaths and population registration data on social characteristics. We defined total drug-related deaths as those from psychoactive substance use disorders and drug-induced poisonings (drug-induced deaths) as well as drug-related accidents, homicides, illnesses, and suicides.

RESULTS

The number of drug-related deaths was three times that of drug-induced deaths. We found the highest hazard ratios (HRs) for total drug-related mortality for long-term unemployment (4.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-5.6), short-term unemployment (3.9; 95% CI, 3.5-4.4), and retirement (5.8; 95% CI, 5.1-6.8). The HRs were highest for mortality related to psychoactive substance use disorders and lowest for mortality related to drug-related suicides. The differences were large for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Drug-related mortality was associated with social disadvantage; however, the strength of the association varied by drug-related cause of death. Primary and secondary prevention of drug use should particularly target disadvantaged groups.

Patterns of use and factors associated with early discontinuation of opioids following major trauma

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate use of prescription opioids is a growing public-health issue. We sought to estimate the proportion of traumatic injury patients using legal prescription opioids up to 1-year after hospitalization.

METHODS

We used 2006-2014 claims data from TRICARE insurance to identify adults hospitalized secondary to trauma between 2007 and 2013. Prescription opioid use was evaluated for one-year post-discharge. Risk-adjusted Cox Proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of opioid discontinuation.

RESULTS

Only 1% of patients sustained legal prescription opioid use at 1-year following trauma. Lower socioeconomic status (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98) and higher injury severity (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.91) were associated with sustained use. Younger patients (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21) and Black patients (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.15) were found to have a higher likelihood of opioid discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population, adult patients who sustained trauma were not at high risk of sustained legal prescription opioid use.

Perceived barriers to smoking cessation among adults with substance use disorders

The majority of adults seeking substance use disorder treatment also smoke. Smoking is associated with greater substance use disorder severity, poorer treatment outcome, and increased mortality among those with substance use disorders. Yet, engaging this population in smoking cessation treatment is a significant challenge. The aim of this study was to examine perceived barriers to smoking cessation among treatment-seeking adults with alcohol or opioid use disorder. Additionally, we examined whether anxiety sensitivity - a known risk factor for barriers to smoking cessation in the general population - was associated with more barriers to smoking cessation in this sample. A sample of 208 adults was recruited for a one-time study and completed self-report measures of anxiety sensitivity and perceived barriers to smoking cessation. Results indicated that the most common barriers were anxiety (82% of the sample), tension/irritability (76%), and concerns about the ability to maintain sobriety from their primary substance of abuse (64%). Those who reported more barriers also reported lower confidence in the ability to change their smoking behavior. Higher anxiety sensitivity was associated with more perceived barriers to smoking cessation, even when controlling for cigarette dependence severity. These results suggest that there are several perceived barriers to smoking cessation among treatment-seeking adults with substance use disorders. In addition to psychoeducational interventions aimed to modify negative beliefs about smoking cessation, anxiety sensitivity may be a promising therapeutic target in this population.

A Systematic Review of Opioid and Benzodiazepine Misuse in Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

The authors assessed the prevalence of opioid and benzodiazepine prescription drug misuse in older adults, the risk factors associated with misuse, and age-appropriate interventions.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, a literature search of PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE for peer-reviewed journal articles in English through April 2014 with updates through November 2015 was conducted for reports on misuse of prescription benzodiazepines and opioids in older adults. Relevant publications were reviewed that included participants age ≥65 years. Reference lists were manually searched for key identified articles and geriatric journals through April 2016. Information on the study design, sample, intervention, comparators, outcome, time frame, and risk of bias were abstracted for each article.

RESULTS

Of 4,932 reviewed reports, 15 were included in this systematic review. Thirteen studies assessed the prevalence of prescription drug misuse and included studies related to opioid shopping behavior, assessment of morbidity and mortality associated with opioid and/or benzodiazepine use, frequency and characteristics of opioid prescribing, frequency of substance use disorders and nonprescription use of pain relievers, and health conditions and experiences of long-term benzodiazepine users. One study identified risk factors for misuse, and one study described the effects of provider education and an electronic support tool as an intervention.

CONCLUSION

There is a dearth of high quality research on prescription drug misuse in older adults. Existing studies are heterogeneous, making it difficult to draw broad conclusions. The need for further research specific to prescription drug misuse among older adults is discussed.

Prescription reporting with immediate medication utilization mapping (PRIMUM): development of an alert to improve narcotic prescribing

BACKGROUND

Prescription narcotic overdoses and abuse have reached alarming numbers. To address this epidemic, integrated clinical decision support within the electronic medical record (EMR) to impact prescribing behavior was developed and tested.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary Expert Panel identified risk factors for misuse, abuse, or diversion of opioids or benzodiazepines through literature reviews and consensus building for inclusion in a rule within the EMR. We ran the rule "silently" to test the rule and collect baseline data.

RESULTS

Five criteria were programmed to trigger the alert; based on data collected during a "silent" phase, thresholds for triggers were modified. The alert would have fired in 21.75 % of prescribing encounters (1.30 % of all encounters; n = 9998), suggesting the alert will have a low prescriber burden yet capture a significant number of at-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

While the use of the EMR to provide clinical decision support is not new, utilizing it to develop and test an intervention is novel. We successfully built an alert system to address narcotic prescribing by providing critical, objective information at the point of care. The silent phase data were useful to appropriately tune the alert and obtain support for widespread implementation. Future healthcare initiatives can utilize similar methodology to collect data prospectively via the electronic medical record to inform the development, delivery, and evaluation of interventions.

Spatial analysis of drug poisoning deaths in the American West, particularly Utah

BACKGROUND

Most states in the Western US have high rates of drug poisoning death (DPD), especially New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Utah (UT). This seems paradoxical in UT where illicit drug use, smoking and drinking rates are low. To investigate this, spatial analysis of county level DPD data and other relevant factors in the Western US and UT was undertaken.

METHODS

Poisson kriging was used to smooth the DPD data, populate data gaps and improve the reliability of rates recorded in sparsely populated counties. Links between DPD and economic, environmental, health, lifestyle, and demographic factors were investigated at four scales using multiple linear regression. LDS church membership and altitude, factors not previously considered, were included. Spatial change in the strength and sign of relationships was investigated using geographically weighted regression and significant DPD clusters were identified using the Local Moran's I.

RESULTS

Economic factors, like the sharp social gradient between rural and urban areas were important to DPD throughout the west. Higher DPD rates were also found in areas of higher elevation and the desert rural areas in the south. The unique characteristics of DPD in UT in terms of health and lifestyle factors, as well as the demographic structure of DPD in the most LDS populous states (UT, Idaho, Wyoming), suggest that high DPD in heavily LDS areas are predominantly prescription opioid related whereas in other Western states a larger proportion of DPD might come from illicit drugs.

CONCLUSION

Drug policies need to be adapted to the geographical differences in the dominant type of drug causing death. Educational materials need to be marketed to the demographic groups at greatest risk and take into account differences in population characteristics between and within States. Some suggestions about how such adaptations can be made are given and future research needs outlined.

Implementation Of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs Associated With Reductions In Opioid-Related Death Rates

Over the past two decades the number of opioid pain relievers sold in the United States rose dramatically. This rise in sales was accompanied by an increase in opioid-related overdose deaths. In response, forty-nine states (all but Missouri) created prescription drug monitoring programs to detect high-risk prescribing and patient behaviors. Our objectives were to determine whether the implementation or particular characteristics of the programs were effective in reducing opioid-related overdose deaths. In adjusted analyses we found that a state's implementation of a program was associated with an average reduction of 1.12 opioid-related overdose deaths per 100,000 population in the year after implementation. Additionally, states whose programs had robust characteristics-including monitoring greater numbers of drugs with abuse potential and updating their data at least weekly-had greater reductions in deaths, compared to states whose programs did not have these characteristics. We estimate that if Missouri adopted a prescription drug monitoring program and other states enhanced their programs with robust features, there would be more than 600 fewer overdose deaths nationwide in 2016, preventing approximately two deaths each day.

Worldwide Prevalence and Trends in Unintentional Drug Overdose: A Systematic Review of the Literature

BACKGROUND

Drug overdose is an important, yet an inadequately understood, public health problem. Global attention to unintentional drug overdose has been limited by comparison with the scope of the problem. There has been a substantial increase in drug overdose incidence and prevalence in several countries worldwide over the past decade, contributing to both increased costs and mortality.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to systematically synthesize the peer-reviewed literature to document the global epidemiological profile of unintentional drug overdoses and the prevalence, time trends, mortality rates, and correlates of drug overdoses. We searched different combinations of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms in PubMed for articles published from 1980 until July 2013, and we organized these results in tabular spreadsheets and compared them. We restricted the search to English-language articles that deal with unintentional overdose, focusing on 1 or more of the following key constructs: prevalence, time trends, mortality rates, and correlates. The term "overdose" as a MeSH major topic yielded 1076 publications. In addition, we searched the following combinations of nonmajor MeSH terms: "street drugs" and "overdose" yielded 180, "death" and "overdose" yielded 114, and "poisoning" and "drug users" yielded 17. There was some overlap among the searches. Based on the search and inclusion and exclusion criteria, we selected a total of 169 relevant articles for this article based on a close review of abstracts.

RESULTS

We found wide variability in lifetime prevalence of experiencing a nonfatal overdose or witnessing an overdose, and in mortality rates attributable to overdose. Lifetime prevalence of witnessed overdose among drug users (n = 17 samples) ranged from 50% to 96%, with a mean of 73.3%, a median of 70%, and a standard deviation of 14.1%. Lifetime prevalence of drug users personally experiencing a nonfatal overdose (n = 27 samples), ranged from 16.6% to 68.0% with a mean of 45.4%, a median of 47%, and a standard deviation of 14.4%. Population-based crude overdose mortality rates (n = 28 samples) ranged from 0.04 to 46.6 per 100 000 person-years. This range is likely attributable to the diversity in regions, time periods, and samples. Most studies on longitudinal trends of overdose death rates or overdose-related hospitalization rates showed increases in overdose death rates and in overdose-related hospitalization rates across time, which have led to peaks in these rates at the present time. An overall trend of increasing deaths from prescription opioid use and decreasing deaths from illicit drug use in the past several years has been noted across most of the literature. With the increase in prescription opioid overdose deaths, drug overdose is not just an urban problem: rural areas have seen an important increase in overdose deaths. Lastly, cocaine, prescription opioids, and heroin are the drugs most commonly associated with unintentional drug overdoses worldwide and the demographic and psychiatric correlates associated with unintentional drug overdoses are similar globally.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need to invest in research to understand the distinct determinants of prescription drug overdose worldwide. Several other countries need to collect in a systematic and continuous fashion such data on sales of prescription opioids and other prescription drugs, nonmedical use of prescription drugs, and hospitalization secondary to overdoses on prescription drugs. The sparse evidence on the environmental determinants of overdose suggests a need for research that will inform the types of environmental interventions we can use to prevent drug overdose. Methodological issues for future studies include enhancing data collection methods on unintentional fatal and nonfatal overdoses, and collecting more detailed information on drug use history, source of drug use (for prescription drugs), and demographic and psychiatric history characteristics of the individual who overdosed.

Development of a Risk Index for Serious Prescription Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression or Overdose in Veterans' Health Administration Patients

OBJECTIVE

Develop a risk index to estimate the likelihood of life-threatening respiratory depression or overdose among medical users of prescription opioids.

SUBJECTS, DESIGN, AND METHODS

A case-control analysis of administrative health care data from the Veterans' Health Administration identified 1,877,841 patients with a pharmacy record for an opioid prescription between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2012. Overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (OSORD) occurred in 817. Ten controls were selected per case (n = 8,170). Items for an OSORD risk index (RIOSORD) were selected through logistic regression modeling, with point values assigned to each predictor. Modeling of risk index scores produced predicted probabilities of OSORD; risk classes were defined by the predicted probability distribution.

RESULTS

Fifteen variables most highly associated with OSORD were retained as items, including mental health disorders and pharmacotherapy; impaired drug metabolism or excretion; pulmonary disorders; specific opioid characteristics; and recent hospital visits. The average predicted probability of experiencing OSORD ranged from 3% in the lowest risk decile to 94% in the highest, with excellent agreement between predicted and observed incidence across risk classes. The model's C-statistic was 0.88 and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 10.8 (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

RIOSORD performed well in identifying medical users of prescription opioids within the Veterans' Health Administration at elevated risk of overdose or life-threatening respiratory depression, those most likely to benefit from preventive interventions. This novel, clinically practical, risk index is intended to provide clinical decision support for safer pain management. It should be assessed, and refined as necessary, in a more generalizable population, and prospectively evaluated.

Emergency department utilization and subsequent prescription drug overdose death

PURPOSE

Prescription drug overdose (PDO) deaths are a critical public health problem in the United States. This study aims to assess the association between emergency department (ED) utilization patterns in a cohort of ED patients and the risk of subsequent unintentional PDO mortality.

METHODS

Using data from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System for 2006-2010, a nested case-control design was used to examine the relationship between ED utilization patterns in New York State residents of age 18-64 years and subsequent PDO death.

RESULTS

The study sample consisted of 2732 case patients who died of PDO and 2732 control ED patients who were selected through incidence density sampling. With adjustment for demographic characteristics, and diagnoses of pain, substance abuse, and psychiatric disorders, the estimated odds ratios of PDO death relative to one ED visit or less in the previous year were 4.90 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.50-5.34) for those with two ED visits, 16.61 (95% CI: 14.72-18.75) for those with three ED visits, and 48.24 (95% CI: 43.23-53.83) for those with four ED visits or more.

CONCLUSIONS

Frequency of ED visits is strongly associated with the risk of subsequent PDO death. Intervention programs targeting frequent ED users are warranted to reduce PDO mortality.

Determinants of increased opioid-related mortality in the United States and Canada, 1990-2013: a systematic review

We review evidence of determinants contributing to increased opioid-related mortality in the United States and Canada between 1990 and 2013. We identified 17 determinants of opioid-related mortality and mortality increases that we classified into 3 categories: prescriber behavior, user behavior and characteristics, and environmental and systemic determinants. These determinants operate independently but interact in complex ways that vary according to geography and population, making generalization from single studies inadvisable. Researchers in this area face significant methodological difficulties; most of the studies in our review were ecological or observational and lacked control groups or adjustment for confounding factors; thus, causal inferences are difficult. Preventing additional opioid-related mortality will likely require interventions that address multiple determinants and are tailored to specific locations and populations.

Risk factors for serious prescription opioid-related toxicity or overdose among Veterans Health Administration patients

OBJECTIVE

Prescription opioid use and deaths related to serious toxicity, including overdose, have increased dramatically in the United States since 1999. However, factors associated with serious opioid-related respiratory or central nervous system (CNS) depression or overdose in medical users are not well characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the factors associated with serious toxicity in medical users of prescription opioids.

DESIGN

Retrospective, nested, case-control analysis of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) medical, pharmacy, and health care resource utilization administrative data.

SUBJECTS

Patients dispensed an opioid by VHA between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2012 (N=8,987).

METHODS

Cases (N=817) experienced life-threatening opioid-related respiratory/CNS depression or overdose. Ten controls were randomly assigned to each case (N=8,170). Logistic regression was used to examine associations with the outcome.

RESULTS

The strongest associations were maximum prescribed daily morphine equivalent dose (MED)≥ 100 mg (odds ratio [OR]=4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.5), history of opioid dependence (OR=3.9, 95% CI, 2.6-5.8), and hospitalization during the 6 months before the serious toxicity or overdose event (OR=2.9, 95% CI, 2.3-3.6). Liver disease, extended-release or long-acting opioids, and daily MED of 20 mg or more were also significantly associated.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial risk for serious opioid-related toxicity and overdose exists at even relatively low maximum prescribed daily MED, especially in patients already vulnerable due to underlying demographic factors, comorbid conditions, and concomitant use of CNS depressant medications or substances. Screening patients for risk, providing education, and coprescribing naloxone for those at elevated risk may be effective at reducing serious opioid-related respiratory/CNS depression and overdose in medical users of prescription opioids.