Integrating coalescent and ecological niche modeling in comparative phylogeography

Comparative phylogeography reveals dissimilar genetic differentiation patterns in two sympatric amphibian species

Global climate change is expected to have a profound effect on species distribution. Due to the temperature constraints, some narrow niche species could shift their narrow range to higher altitudes or latitudes. In this study, we explored the correlation between species traits, genetic structure, and geographical range size. More specifically, we analyzed how these variables are affected by differences in fundamental niche breadth or dispersal ability in the members of two sympatrically distributed stream-dwelling amphibian species (frog, Quasipaa yei; salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis), in Dabie Mountains, East China. Both species showed relatively high genetic diversity in most geographical populations and similar genetic diversity patterns (JTX, low; BYM, high) correlation with habitat changes and population demography. Multiple clustering analyses were used to disclose differentiation among the geographical populations of these two amphibian species. Q. yei disclosed the relatively shallow genetic differentiation, while P. shangchengensis showed an opposite pattern. Under different historical climatic conditions, all ecological niche modeling disclosed a larger suitable habitat area for Q. yei than for P. shangchengensis; these results indicated a wider environment tolerance or wider niche width of Q. yei than P. shangchengensis. Our findings suggest that the synergistic effects of environmental niche variation and dispersal ability may help shape genetic structure across geographical topology, particularly for species with extremely narrow distribution.

Speciation across biomes: Rapid diversification with reproductive isolation in the Australian delicate mice

Phylogeographic studies of continental clades, especially when combined with palaeoclimate modelling, provide powerful insight into how environment drives speciation across climatic contexts. Australia, a continent characterized by disparate modern biomes and dynamic climate change, provides diverse opportunity to reconstruct the impact of past and present environments on diversification. Here, we use genomic-scale data (1310 exons and whole mitogenomes from 111 samples) to investigate Pleistocene diversification, cryptic diversity, and secondary contact in the Australian delicate mice (Hydromyini: Pseudomys), a recent radiation spanning almost all Australian environments. Across northern Australia, we find no evidence for introgression between cryptic lineages within Pseudomys delicatulus sensu lato, with palaeoclimate models supporting contraction and expansion of suitable habitat since the last glacial maximum. Despite multiple contact zones, we also find little evidence of introgression at a continental scale, with the exception of a potential hybrid zone in the mesic biome. In the arid zone, combined insights from genetic data and palaeomodels support a recent expansion in the arid specialist P. hermannsburgensis and contraction in the semi-arid P. bolami. In the face of repeated secondary contact, differences in sperm morphology and chromosomal rearrangements are potential mechanisms that maintain species boundaries in these recently diverged species. Additionally, we describe the western delicate mouse as a new species and recommend taxonomic reinstatement of the eastern delicate mouse. Overall, we show that speciation in an evolutionarily young and widespread clade has been driven by environmental change, and potentially maintained by divergence in reproductive morphology and chromosome rearrangements.

Reduced representation approaches produce similar results to whole genome sequencing for some common phylogeographic analyses

When designing phylogeographic investigations researchers can choose to collect many different types of molecular markers, including mitochondrial genes or genomes, SNPs from reduced representation protocols, large sequence capture data sets, and even whole genomes. Given that the statistical power and accuracy of various analyses are expected to differ depending on both the type of marker and the amount of data collected, an exploration of the variance across methodological results as a function of marker type should provide valuable information to researchers. Here we collect mitochondrial Cytochrome b sequences, whole mitochondrial genomes, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)s isolated using a genotype by sequencing (GBS) protocol, sequences from ultraconserved elements, and low-coverage nuclear genomes from the North American water vole (Microtus richardsoni). We estimate genetic distances, population genetic structure, and historical demography using data from each of these datasets and compare the results across markers. As anticipated, the results exhibit differences across marker types, particularly in terms of the resolution offered by different analyses. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that SNPs collected using a GBS protocol are the most cost-effective molecular marker, with inferences that mirror those collected from the whole genome data at a fraction of the cost per sample.

Once upon a time in Mexico: Holocene biogeography of the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum)

Holocene-era range expansions are relevant to understanding how a species might respond to the warming and drying climates of today. The harsh conditions of North American deserts have phylogenetically structured desert bat communities but differences in flight capabilities are expected to affect their ability to compete, locate, and use habitat in the face of modern climate change. A highly vagile but data-deficient bat species, the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum), is thought to have expanded its range from central Mexico to western Canada during the Holocene. With specimens spanning this latitudinal extent, we examined historical demography, and used ecological niche modeling (ENM) and phylogeography (mitochondrial DNA), to investigate historic biogeography from the rear to leading edges of the species' range. The ENM supported the notion that Mexico was largely the Pleistocene-era range, whereas haplotype pattern and Skyline plots indicated that populations expanded from the southwestern US throughout the Holocene. This era provided substantial gains in suitable climate space and likely facilitated access to roosting habitat throughout the US Intermountain West. Incongruent phylogenies among different methods prevented a precise understanding of colonization history. However, isolation at the southern-most margin of the range suggests a population was left behind in Mexico as climate space contracted and are currently of unknown status. The species appears historically suited to follow shifts in climate space but differences in flight behaviors between leading edge and core-range haplogroups suggest range expansions could be influenced by differences in habitat quality or climate (e.g., drought). Although its vagility could facilitate response to environmental change and thereby avoid extinction, anthropogenic pressures at the core range could still threaten the ability for beneficial alleles to expand into the leading edge.

The Probability of Joint Monophyly of Samples of Gene Lineages for All Species in an Arbitrary Species Tree

Monophyly is a feature of a set of genetic lineages in which every lineage in the set is more closely related to all other members of the set than it is to any lineage outside the set. Multiple sets of lineages that are separately monophyletic are said to be reciprocally monophyletic, or jointly monophyletic. The prevalence of reciprocal monophyly, or joint monophyly (JM), has been used to evaluate phylogenetic and phylogeographic hypotheses, as well as to delimit species. These applications often make use of a probability of JM under models of gene lineage evolution. Studies in coalescent theory have computed this JM probability for small numbers of separate groups in arbitrary species trees and for arbitrary numbers of separate groups in trivial species trees. In this study, generalizing existing results on monophyly probabilities under the multispecies coalescent, we derive the probability of JM for arbitrary numbers of separate groups in arbitrary species trees. We illustrate how our result collapses to previously examined cases. We also study the effect of tree height, sample size, and number of species on the probability of JM. We obtain relatively simple lower and upper bounds on the JM probability. Our results expand the scope of JM calculations beyond small numbers of species, subsuming past formulas that have been used in simpler cases.

Fine-scale genome-wide signature of Pleistocene glaciation in Thitarodes moths (Lepidoptera: Hepialidae), host of Ophiocordyceps fungus in the Hengduan Mountains

The Hengduan Mountains region is a biodiversity hotspot known for its topologically complex, deep valleys and high mountains. While landscape and glacial refugia have been evoked to explain patterns of inter-species divergence, the accumulation of intra-species (i.e. population level) genetic divergence across the mountain-valley landscape in this region has received less attention. We used genome-wide restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to reveal signatures of Pleistocene glaciation in populations of Thitarodes shambalaensis (Lepidoptera: Hepialidae), the host moth of parasitic Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Hypocreales: Ophiocordycipitaceae) or "caterpillar fungus" endemic to the glacier of eastern Mt. Gongga. We used moraine history along the glacier valleys to model the distribution and environmental barriers to gene flow across populations of T. shambalaensis. We found that moth populations separated by less than 10 km exhibited valley-based population genetic clustering and isolation-by-distance (IBD), while gene flow among populations was best explained by models using information about their distributions at the local last glacial maximum (LGM_L , 58 kya), not their contemporary distribution. Maximum likelihood lineage history among populations, and among subpopulations as little as 500 meters apart, recapitulated glaciation history across the landscape. We also found signals of isolated population expansion following the retreat of LGM_L glaciers. These results reveal the fine-scale, long-term historical influence of landscape and glaciation on the genetic structuring of populations of an endangered and economically important insect species. Similar mechanisms, given enough time and continued isolation, could explain the contribution of glacier refugia to the generation of species diversity among the Hengduan Mountains.

POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF DOMESTICATED Sechium edule (CUCURBITACEAE) IN MEXICO

Mexico is the centre of origin of the chayote (Sechium edule (Jacq.) Sw), an important plant in human consumption and in pharmaceuticals. The objective of this study was to determine the potential distribution of domesticated S. edule in Mexico using seven species distribution algorithms, to efficiently manage S. edule resources and help its conservation by identifying patterns of geographic distribution. Otherwise, areas of high suitability can be used to produce improved seed at a lower cost. 162 GBIF occurrence points and nine layers in raster format were used to evaluate seven algorithms of species distribution models. To evaluate the reliability and performance of the models, the statistics Area Under the Curve (AUC) and true skill statistic was used. Predominant climate types were Cwb (33.3 %) and Aw (17.9 %); predominant soil types were leptosol (33.3 %) and phaozem (16.7 %). The seven models showed areas of high suitability (> 0.75) in Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Hidalgo states. AUC values for the seven models were > 0.8 and their performance was adequate (0.4 > TSS < 0.7). Classification tree analysis was found to be the best algorithm measured by AUC (0.90); however, the seven models were adequate to explain S. edule distribution in Mexico. S. edule climatic adaptability also allows to be distributed towards the Yucatan Peninsula and western Mexico. The distribution of S. edule in Mexico, according to the studied algorithms, is limited to total annual precipitation and temperature seasonality.

Reduced genetic diversity associated with the northern expansion of an amphibian species with high habitat specialization, Ascaphus truei, resolved using two types of genetic markers

Reconstruction of historical relationships between geographic regions within a species' range can indicate dispersal patterns and help predict future responses to shifts in climate. Ascaphus truei (coastal tailed frog) is an indicator species of the health of forests and perennial streams in the Coastal and Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest of North America. We used two genetic techniques-microsatellite and genotype-by-sequencing (GBS)-to compare the within-region genetic diversity of populations near the northern extent of the species' range (British Columbia, Canada) to two geographic regions in British Columbia and two in Washington, USA, moving toward the core of the range. Allelic richness and heterozygosity declined substantially as latitude increased. The northernmost region had the lowest mean expected heterozygosities for both techniques (microsatellite, M = 0.20, SE = 0.080; GBS, M = 0.025, SE = 0.0010) and the southernmost region had the highest (microsatellite, M = 0.88, SE = 0.054; GBS, M = 0.20, SE = 0.0029). The northernmost regions (NC and MC) clustered together in population structure models for both genetic techniques. Our discovery of reduced diversity may have important conservation and management implications for population connectivity and the response of A. truei to climate change.

Ecological divergence and synchronous Pleistocene diversification in the widespread South American butter frog complex

Phylogeographic studies primarily focus on the major role of landscape topography in driving lineage diversification. However, populational phylogeographic breaks may also occur as a result of either niche conservatism or divergence, in the absence of geographic barriers to gene flow. Furthermore, these two factors are not mutually exclusive and can act in concert, making it challenging to evaluate their relative importance on explaining genetic variation in nature. Herein, we use sequences of two mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the timing and diversification patterns of species pertaining to the Leptodactylus latrans complex, which harbors four morphologically cryptic species with broad distributions across environmental gradients in eastern South America. The origin of this species complex dates back to the late Miocene (ca. 5.5 Mya), but most diversification events occurred synchronically during the late Pleistocene likely as the result of ecological divergence driven by Quaternary climatic oscillations. Further, significant patterns of environmental niche divergences among species in the L. latrans complex imply that ecological isolation is the primary mode of genetic diversification, mostly because phylogenetic breaks are associated with environmental transitions rather than topographic barriers at both species and populational scale. We provided new insights about diversification patterns and processes within a species complex of broadly and continuously distributed group of frogs along South America.

The evolution of comparative phylogeography: putting the geography (and more) into comparative population genomics

Comparative population genomics is an ascendant field using genomic comparisons between species to draw inferences about forces regulating genetic variation. Comparative phylogeography, by contrast, focuses on the shared lineage histories of species codistributed geographically and is decidedly organismal in perspective. Comparative phylogeography is approximately 35 years old, and, by some metrics, is showing signs of reduced growth. Here, we contrast the goals and methods of comparative population genomics and comparative phylogeography and argue that comparative phylogeography offers an important perspective on evolutionary history that succeeds in integrating genomics with landscape evolution in ways that complement the suprageographic perspective of comparative population genomics. Focusing primarily on terrestrial vertebrates, we review the history of comparative phylogeography, its milestones and ongoing conceptual innovations, its increasingly global focus, and its status as a bridge between landscape genomics and the process of speciation. We also argue that, as a science with a strong “sense of place,” comparative phylogeography offers abundant “place-based” educational opportunities with its focus on geography and natural history, as well as opportunities for collaboration with local communities and indigenous peoples. Although comparative phylogeography does not yet require whole-genome sequencing for many of its goals, we conclude that it nonetheless plays an important role in grounding our interpretation of genetic variation in the fundamentals of geography and Earth history.

Addressing alpine plant phylogeography using integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modeling

Phylogeographic studies of alpine plants have evolved considerably in the last two decades from ad hoc interpretations of genetic data to statistical model-based approaches. In this review we outline the developments in alpine plant phylogeography focusing on the recent approach of integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent (iDDC) modeling. By integrating distributional data with spatially explicit demographic modeling and subsequent coalescent simulations, the history of alpine species can be inferred and long-standing hypotheses, such as species-specific responses to climate change or survival on nunataks during the last glacial maximum, can be efficiently tested as exemplified by available case studies. We also discuss future prospects and improvements of iDDC.

The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders' distribution

AIM

Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species-by-species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

LOCATION

Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Western Plethodon salamanders.

METHODS

Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

RESULTS

The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.

Of pandas, fossils, and bamboo forests: ecological niche modeling of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) during the Last Glacial Maximum

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is the most basal living species in the phylogeny of the family Ursidae, with a specialized diet composed of a variety of bamboo species. The evolutionary history and past distribution patterns of the giant panda remain poorly understood. Our aim was to integratively apply distinct methods to evaluate the evolutionary history and distributional patterns of the giant panda; these included phylogeography, ecological niche modeling (ENM), and fossil data. To this end, we characterized the panda’s past and present ecological niches and the environmental conditions that define them. To estimate the panda’s phylogeographic patterns and the environmental conditions (precipitation and temperature) available across its historical geographic range, we evaluated its past distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Considering that modeling biotic interactions (e.g., foraging, predation) is still an enormous challenge, we propose a novel modeling strategy based on the panda’s specialized diet, using an ensemble of three bamboo genera with distribution across the panda’s historical geographic range. Finally, we tested the accuracy of our approach by evaluating its ability to predict the LGM fossils. Our results support that the panda’s diversification across its distribution happened ca. 2.7 million years (Mya), coinciding with the likely period when the panda changed from a carnivorous to a vegetarian diet (from the Pleistocene to the Pliocene), acquiring its exclusively bamboo-feeding habits until the mid-Holocene. Our findings provide evidence of a historical directional niche change along which the panda has currently reached the lower limits of temperature and precipitation conditions existing on the geography where its food is available. Our proposed ENM based on the panda’s food habits accurately predicted 85.7% of the LGM fossils, in stark contrast with the traditional approach of modeling the distribution of species by using exclusively its own occurrences. These results provide insights on how to include Eltonian components to undertake more robust ENM when only abiotic variables are available. We emphasize the importance of integrating fossil information, whenever available, into the niche modeling process to include the historical component when estimating species ecological niches.

Centre-periphery approaches based on geography, ecology and historical climate stability: what explains the variation in morphological traits of Bulnesia sarmientoi?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The centre-periphery hypothesis posits that higher species performance is expected in geographic and ecological centres rather than in peripheral populations. However, this is not the commonly found pattern; therefore, alternative approaches, including the historical dimension of species geographical ranges, should be explored. Morphological functional traits are fundamental determinants of species performance, commonly related to environmental stability and productivity. We tested whether or not historical processes may have shaped variations in tree and leaf traits of the Chaco tree Bulnesia sarmientoi.

METHODS

Morphological variation patterns were analysed from three centre-periphery approaches: geographical, ecological and historical. Tree (stem and canopy) and leaf (leaf size and specific leaf area) traits were measured in 24 populations across the species range. A principal component analysis was performed on morphological traits to obtain synthetic variables. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test which of the implemented centre-periphery approaches significantly explained trait spatial patterns.

KEY RESULTS

The patterns retrieved from the three centre-periphery approaches were not concordant. The historical approach revealed that trees were shorter in centre populations than in the periphery. Significant differences in leaf traits were observed between the geographical centre and the periphery, mainly due to low specific leaf area values towards the geographical centre. We did not find any pattern associated with the ecological centre-periphery approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The decoupled response between leaf and tree traits suggests that these sets of traits respond differently to processes occurring at different times. The geographical and historical approaches showed centres with extreme environments in relation to their respective peripheries, but the historical centre has also been a climatically stable area since the Last Glacial Maximum. The historical approach allowed for the recovery of historical processes underlying variation in tree traits, highlighting that centre-periphery delimitations should be based on a multi-approach framework.

Genomic Resources for the North American Water Vole (Microtus richardsoni) and the Montane Vole (Microtus montanus)

Voles of the genus Microtus are important research organisms, yet genomic resources are lacking. Such resources would benefit future studies of immunology, phylogeography, cryptic diversity, and more. We sequenced and assembled nuclear genomes from two subspecies of water vole (Microtus richardsoni) and from the montane vole (Microtus montanus). The water vole genomes were sequenced with Illumina and 10× Chromium plus Illumina sequencing, resulting in assemblies with ∼1600,000 and ∼30,000 scaffolds, respectively. The montane vole was also assembled into ∼13,000 scaffolds using Illumina sequencing. Mitochondrial genome assemblies were also performed for both species. Structural and functional annotation for the best water vole nuclear genome resulted in ∼24,500 annotated genes, with 83% of these having functional annotations. Assembly quality statistics for our nuclear assemblies fall within the range of genomes previously published in the genus Microtus, making the water vole and montane vole genomes useful additions to currently available genomic resources.

A New Method for Integrating Ecological Niche Modeling with Phylogenetics to Estimate Ancestral Distributions

Ancestral range estimation and projection of niche models into the past have both become common in evolutionary studies where the ancient distributions of organisms are in question. However, these methods are hampered by complementary hurdles: discrete characterization of areas in ancestral range estimation can be overly coarse, especially at shallow timescales, and niche model projection neglects evolution. Phylogenetic niche modeling accounts for both of these issues by incorporating knowledge of evolutionary relationships into a characterization of environmental tolerances. We present a new method for phylogenetic niche modeling, implemented in R. Given past and present climate data, taxon occurrence data, and a time-calibrated phylogeny, our method constructs niche models for each extant taxon, uses ancestral character estimation to reconstruct ancestral niche models, and projects these models into paleoclimate data to provide a historical estimate of the geographic range of a lineage. Models either at nodes or along branches of the phylogeny can be estimated. We demonstrate our method on a small group of dendrobatid frogs and show that it can make inferences given species with restricted ranges and little occurrence data. We also use simulations to show that our method can reliably reconstruct the niche of a known ancestor in both geographic and environmental space. Our method brings together fields as disparate as ecological niche modeling, phylogenetics, and ancestral range estimation in a user-friendly package.

Spatio-temporal variation in environmental features predicts the distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in both geographic range and population sizes in recent history. Increases in the geographic range or population size of disease vectors have public health relevance as these increases often precipitate the emergence of infectious diseases in human populations. Accurately identifying environmental factors affecting the biogeographic patterns of vector species is a long-standing analytical challenge, stemming from a paucity of data capturing periods of rapid changes in vector demographics. We systematically investigated the occurrence and abundance of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks at 532 sampling locations throughout New York State (NY), USA, between 2008 and 2018, a time frame that encompasses the emergence of diseases vectored by these ticks. Analyses of these field-collected data demonstrated a range expansion into northern and western NY during the last decade. Nymphal abundances increased in newly colonised areas, while remaining stable in areas with long-standing populations over the last decade. These trends in the geographic range and abundance of nymphs correspond to both the geographic expansion of human Lyme disease cases and increases in incidence rates. Analytic models fitted to these data incorporating time, space, and environmental factors, accurately identified drivers of the observed changes in nymphal occurrence and abundance. These models accounted for the spatial and temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of nymphs and can accurately predict nymphal population patterns in future years. Forecasting disease risk at fine spatial scales prior to the transmission season can influence both public health mitigation strategies and individual behaviours, potentially impacting tick-borne disease risk and subsequently human disease incidence.

Single-locus species delimitation and ecological niche modelling provide insights into the evolution, historical distribution and taxonomy of the Pacific chorus frogs

The Pacific chorus frogs are a complex of three wide-ranging species (i.e. Hyliola hypochondriaca, Hyliola regilla, Hyliola sierra) whose current taxonomy remains unresolved. We conducted species delimitation analyses of these taxa using fragments of the cytochrome b and 12S–16S mtDNA genes to assess the species diversity. Importantly, we included samples from new locations throughout the range to better understand species distributions and identify potential contact zones among clades. Our analyses revealed three slightly parapatric but distinct species-level clades. Molecular dating revealed that these species began diverging in the Pleistocene c. 1.4 Mya with H. hypochondriaca and H. sierra diverging more recently c. 0.8 Mya. We found that populations from western Montana and Idaho originated recently from populations to the southwest that belong to H. sierra, rather than from H. regilla populations directly to the west. Population sizes of each species expanded c. 130–80 Kya with H. hypochondriaca exhibiting a more pronounced expansion beginning c. 100 Kya than the more gradual expansion of the other two species. The climatic niche models suggest that distributions of the three species were similar during the last interglacial (LIG) as they are today. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. hypochondriaca and H. sierra occupied a larger range than they do today whereas H. regilla occupied a smaller refugium, shifted south from the current distribution. This study highlights the continued effectiveness of utilizing single-locus data sets for species delimitation and biogeographic analyses.

Dispersal barriers and opportunities drive multiple levels of phylogeographic concordance in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Phylogeographic concordance, or the sharing of phylogeographic patterns among codistributed species, suggests similar responses to topography or climatic history. While the orientation and timing of breaks between lineages are routinely compared, spatial dynamics within regions occupied by individual lineages provide a second opportunity for comparing responses to past events. In environments with complex topography and glacial history, such as New Zealand's South Island, geographically nested comparisons can identify the processes leading to phylogeographic concordance between and within regional genomic clusters. Here, we used single nucleotide polymorphisms (obtained via ddRADseq) for two codistributed forest beetle species, Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae) and Brachynopus scutellaris (Staphylinidae), to evaluate the role of climate change and topography in shaping phylogeographic concordance at two, nested spatial scales: do species diverge over the same geographic barriers, with similar divergence times? And within regions delimited by these breaks, do species share similar spatial dynamics of directional expansion or isolation-by-distance? We found greater congruence of phylogeographic breaks between regions divided by the strongest dispersal barriers (i.e., the Southern Alps). However, these shared breaks were not indicative of shared spatial dynamics within the regions they delimit, and the most similar spatial dynamics between species occurred within regions with the strongest gradients in historical climatic stability. Our results indicate that lack of concordance as traditionally detected by lineage turnover does not rule out the possibility of shared histories, and variation in the presence and type of concordance may provide insights into the different processes shaping phylogeographic patterns across geologically dynamic regions.

Genetics and Distribution Modeling: The Demographic History of the Cactophilic Drosophila buzzatii Species Cluster in Open Areas of South America

Biodiversity is the result of historical and recurrent events acting on populations and species. The Drosophila buzzatii species cluster is distributed along a diagonal of open areas in South America. Combining genetic analyses with species distribution models we evaluated the influence of climatic changes in the demography history of this cluster. We performed a Bayesian Skyline analysis and reconstructed the ancestral areas based on mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) gene. We modeled the current distribution and projected it to past (mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum) and future. Our results demonstrate that climate change plays a critical role in historical demography and in defining the current and future geographic ranges of these species. The inter-Andean dry valleys and the Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF) in Bolivia are considered the ancestral area for the D. buzzatii cluster. From this area, the migration route was through a west-east corridor from central Andes, throughout Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina toward eastern and northeastern Brazil, along the edges of rain forest. The responses of the species to the climatic changes differ from the dominant assumptions of expansion during dry/cold weather and contraction during wet/warm weather that characterized the glacial cycles. We suggest that the influence of ecology and the potential responsiveness of each taxon to the environmental dynamics should be considered as well. Predictions for the future suggest a decline of suitable areas for the cluster, threatening biodiversity of these habitats. This work showed the importance of an integrative analysis of genetics and geography information to improve the inferences about demographic history hypotheses for the cluster.

Biogeographic barriers, Pleistocene refugia, and climatic gradients in the southeastern Nearctic drive diversification in cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex)

The southeastern Nearctic is a biodiversity hotspot that is also rich in cryptic species. Numerous hypotheses (e.g., vicariance, local adaptation, and Pleistocene speciation in glacial refugia) have been tested in an attempt to explain diversification and the observed pattern of extant biodiversity. However, previous phylogeographic studies have both supported and refuted these hypotheses. Therefore, while data support one or more of these diversification hypotheses, it is likely that taxa are forming within this region in species-specific ways. Here, we generate a genomic data set for the cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex), which are widespread across this region, spanning both biogeographic barriers and climatic gradients. We use phylogeographic model selection combined with hindcast ecological niche models to determine regions of habitat stability through time. This combined approach suggests that numerous drivers of population differentiation explain the current diversity of this group of snakes. The Mississippi River caused initial speciation in this species complex, with more recent divergence events linked to adaptations to ecological heterogeneity and allopatric Pleistocene refugia. Lastly, we discuss the taxonomy of this group and suggest there may be additional cryptic species in need of formal recognition.

Diversity and evolution of Amazonian birds: implications for conservation and biogeography

Amazonia has been a focus of interest since the early days of biogeography as an intrinsically complex and extremely diverse region. This region comprises an intricate mosaic that includes diverse types of forest formations, flooded environments and open vegetation. Increased knowledge about the distribution of species in Amazonia has led to the recognition of complex biogeographic patterns. The confrontation of these biogeographic patterns with information on the geological and climatic history of the region has generated several hypotheses dedicated to explain the origin of the biological diversity. Genomic information, coupled with knowledge of Earth's history, especially the evolution of the Amazonian landscape, presents fascinating possibilities for understanding the mechanisms that govern the origin and maintenance of diversity patterns in one of the most diverse regions of the world. For this we will increasingly need more intense and coordinated interactions between researchers studying biotic diversification and the evolution of landscapes. From the interaction between these two fields of knowledge that are in full development, an increasingly detailed understanding of the historical mechanisms related to the origin of the species will surely arise.

Phylogeography of Dendrolimus punctatus (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae): Population differentiation and last glacial maximum survival

Although the Masson pine moth, Dendrolimus punctatus, is one of the most destructive forest pest insects and is an endemic condition in China, we still do not fully understand the patterns of how its distribution range varies in response to Quaternary climatic oscillations. Here, we sequenced one maternally inherited mitochondrial gene (COI) and biparentally inherited nuclear data (ITS1 and ITS2) among 23 natural populations across the entire range of the species in China. A total of 51 mitotypes and 38 ribotypes were separately obtained using mtDNA and ITS1 data. Furthermore, significant phylogeographical structure (N ST > G ST, p < 0.01) were detected. The spatial distribution of mitotypes implied that two distinct groups existed in the species: one in the southwest distribution, including 10 locations, and the other located in the northeast region of China. It is suggested, therefore, that each group was derived from ancestors that occupied different isolated refugia during previous periods, possibly last glacial maximum. Mismatch distribution and Bayesian population dynamics analysis suggested the population size underwent sudden expansion, which is consistent with the results of ecological niche modeling. As a typical phytophagous insect, the history of population expansion was in accordance with the host plants, providing abundant food resources and habitat. Intraspecific success rate of barcoding identification was lower than interspecific ones, indicating a level of difficulty in barcoding individuals from different populations. However, it still provides an early insight into the pattern of genetic diversity within a species.

OPEN RESEARCH BADGES

This article has been awarded an Open Data and Open Materials. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2df87g2. Learn more about the Open Practices badges from the Center for Open Science: https://osf.io/tvyxz/wiki.

Markers in time and space: A review of the last decade of plant phylogeographic approaches

Plant studies comprise a relatively small proportion of the phylogeographic literature, likely as a consequence of the fundamental challenges posed by the complex genomic structures and life history strategies of these organisms. Comparative plastomics (i.e., comparisons of mutation rates within and among regions of the chloroplast genome) across plant lineages has led to an increased understanding of which markers are likely to provide the most information at low taxonomic levels. However, the extent to which the results of such work have influenced the literature has not been fully assessed, nor has the extent to which plant phylogeographers explicitly analyse markers in time and space, both of which are integral components of the field. Here, we reviewed more than 400 publications from the last decade of plant phylogeography to specifically address the following questions: (i) What is the phylogenetic breadth of studies to date? (ii) What molecular markers have been used, and why were they chosen? (iii) What kinds of markers are most frequently used and in what combinations? (iv) How frequently are divergence time estimation and ecological niche modelling used in plant phylogeography? Our results indicate that chloroplast DNA sequence data remain the primary tool of choice, followed distantly by nuclear DNA sequences and microsatellites. Less than half (42%) of all studies use divergence time estimation, while even fewer use ecological niche modelling (14%). We discuss the implications of our findings, as well as the need for community standards on data reporting.

Climate change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard

Around the world, many species are confined to "Sky Islands," with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (a) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (b) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (c) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly "pushed off the top" by climates even warmer than those today; (d) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (e) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming.

Complex interplay of ancient vicariance and recent patterns of geographical speciation in north-western North American temperate rainforests explains the phylogeny of jumping slugs (Hemphillia spp.)

The history of the currently disjunct temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America has shaped the evolution and diversity of endemics. This study focuses on how geological and climatic perturbations have driven speciation in the area by isolating lineages. We investigated the phylogenetic relationships and historical biogeography of the endemic jumping slugs (genus Hemphillia) using a multi-locus phylogeny. We evaluated the spatial distribution and divergence times of major lineages, generated ancestral area probabilities and inferred the biogeographical history of the genus. Our study revealed eight genetic lineages that formed three clades: one clade consisting of two Coast/Cascade lineages, and two reciprocally monophyletic clades that each contain a Coast/Cascade and two Rocky Mountains taxa. The results of the biogeographical analysis suggest that the ancestral range of the genus occupied Coast/Cascade habitats and then spread across into Northern Rocky Mountain interior habitats with subsequent fragmentations isolating coastal and inland lineages. Finally, there have been more recent speciation events among three lineage pairs that have shaped shallow structures of all clades. We add to our knowledge of the biogeographical history of the region in that we discovered diversification and speciation events that have occurred in ways more complex than previously thought.

Phylogeography and niche modelling: reciprocal enlightenment

Phylogeography examines the spatial genetic structure of species. Environmental niche modelling (or ecological niche modelling; ENM) examines the environmental limits of a species’ ecological niche. These two fields have great potential to be used together. ENM can shed light on how phylogeographical patterns develop and help identify possible drivers of spatial structure that need to be further investigated. Specifically, ENM can be used to test for niche differentiation among clades, identify factors limiting individual clades and identify barriers and contact zones. It can also be used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of historical and future climate change on spatial genetic patterns by projecting niches using palaeoclimate or future climate data. Conversely, phylogeographical information can populate ENM with within-species genetic diversity. Where adaptive variation exists among clades within a species, modelling their niches separately can improve predictions of historical distribution patterns and future responses to climate change. Awareness of patterns of genetic diversity in niche modelling can also alert conservationists to the potential loss of genetically diverse areas in a species’ range. Here, we provide a simplistic overview of both fields, and focus on their potential for integration, encouraging researchers on both sides to take advantage of the opportunities available.

A genome-wide scan shows evidence for local adaptation in a widespread keystone Neotropical forest tree

The role of natural selection in shaping patterns of diversity is still poorly understood in the Neotropics. We carried out the first genome-wide population genomics study in a Neotropical tree, Handroanthus impetiginosus (Bignoniaceae), sampling 75,838 SNPs by sequence capture in 128 individuals across 13 populations. We found evidences for local adaptation using Bayesian correlations of allele frequency and environmental variables (32 loci in 27 genes) complemented by an analysis of selective sweeps and genetic hitchhiking events using SweepFinder2 (81 loci in 47 genes). Fifteen genes were identified by both approaches. By accounting for population genetic structure, we also found 14 loci with selection signal in a STRUCTURE-defined lineage comprising individuals from five populations, using Outflank. All approaches pinpointed highly diverse and structurally conserved genes affecting plant development and primary metabolic processes. Spatial interpolation forecasted differences in the expected allele frequencies at loci under selection over time, suggesting that H. impetiginosus may track its habitat during climate changes. However, local adaptation through natural selection may also take place, allowing species persistence due to niche evolution. A high genetic differentiation was seen among the H. impetiginosus populations, which, together with the limited power of the experiment, constrains the improved detection of other types of soft selective forces, such as background, balanced, and purifying selection. Small differences in allele frequency distribution among widespread populations and the low number of loci with detectable adaptive sweeps advocate for a polygenic model of adaptation involving a potentially large number of small genome-wide effects.

PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land areas

High-resolution, easily accessible paleoclimate data are essential for environmental, evolutionary, and ecological studies. The availability of bioclimatic layers derived from climatic simulations representing conditions of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene has revolutionized the study of species responses to Late Quaternary climate change. Yet, integrative studies of the impacts of climate change in the Early Pleistocene and Pliocene - periods in which recent speciation events are known to concentrate - have been hindered by the limited availability of downloadable, user-friendly climatic descriptors. Here we present PaleoClim, a free database of downscaled paleoclimate outputs at 2.5-minute resolution (~5 km at equator) that includes surface temperature and precipitation estimates from snapshot-style climate model simulations using HadCM3, a version of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre General Circulation Model. As of now, the database contains climatic data for three key time periods spanning from 3.3 to 0.787 million years ago: the Marine Isotope Stage 19 (MIS19) in the Pleistocene (~787 ka), the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.264-3.025 Ma), and MIS M2 in the Late Pliocene (~3.3 Ma).

The influence of latitude, geographic distance, and habitat discontinuities on genetic variation in a high latitude montane species

Examining the factors that influence contemporary genetic patterns is important given the alarming rate at which natural environments are changing. In particular habitat fragmentation and climate change are expected to influence the distribution and diversity of natural populations. In this study we used both mitochondrial control region (mtDNA) and microsatellite data to answer the following questions about genetic diversity and divergence in mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) a resident bird species in western North America: (1) Do populations exhibit similar levels of genetic diversity across the range? (2) What is the genetic affinity of western populations in Oregon and Washington? (3) Do genetic patterns exhibit isolation by distance, or are genetic patterns more heavily influenced by habitat discontinuity? We tested the effects of isolation by distance and habitat distribution on genetic structure by analyzing 266 samples from 17 sites across western Canada and the United States. We found a near significant relationship between genetic diversity and latitude, however, our results indicate that overall, latitude is not a strong predictor of genetic diversity. Our analyses of populations in Oregon and Washington revealed a mismatch between patterns detected with mtDNA and microsatellite data. In particular, Washington clustered with the Coast Range/Cascades/Rocky Mountain mtDNA group, but with populations in southern Oregon/California based on microsatellite data. These results suggest the presence of a contact zone in Washington between the two mtDNA clades Coast Range/Cascades/Rocky Mountain and southern Oregon/California clades. Finally, our study revealed a greater effect of isolation by distance than isolation by habitat for both mtDNA and microsatellite data. Overall the isolation by distance signal was greater for mtDNA than microsatellite patterns. The greater signal of isolation by distance on mtDNA patterns likely reflects the strong effects of Pleistocene glaciations in shaping genetic patterns in western North America.

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold-adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold-adapted species may respond to future climate changes.

Evolutionary relationships and climatic niche evolution in the genus Handleyomys (Sigmodontinae: Oryzomyini)

Mesoamerica is considered a biodiversity hot spot with levels of endemism and species diversity likely underestimated. Unfortunately, the region continues to experience some of the highest deforestation rates in the world. For mammals, the evolutionary relationships of many endemic taxa are controversial, as it is the case for members of the genus Handleyomys. Estimation of a time-calibrated hypothesis for the evolution of these six genera (Euryoryzomys, Handleyomys, Hylaeamys, Nephelomys, Oecomys and Transandinomys) supported a monophyletic Handleyomys sensu lato. Based on their distinctive morphology and the amount of inter-generic genetic divergence, Handleyomys sensu stricto, H. alfaroi, the H. chapmani, and the H. melanotis species groups warrant recognition as separate genera. In addition, species delimitation documents the existence of cryptic species-level lineages within H. alfaroi and H. rostratus. Cryptic lineages within H. rostratus exhibited significant niche differentiation, but this was not the pattern among species-level clades within H. alfaroi. Similarly, age-range correlations revealed that niche evolution within Handleyomys is not correlated with evolutionary time, instead, ancestral climate tolerance reconstructions show niche disparities at specific diversification events within the chapmani and melanotis species groups, while the climatic niche of the rest of species of Handleyomys tended to be conservative.

Enhancing the WorldClim data set for national and regional applications

Climatic change in the last few decades has had a widespread impact on both natural and human systems, observable on all continents. Ecological and environmental models using climatic data often rely on gridded data, such as WorldClim. The main aim of this study was to devise and evaluate a computationally efficient approach to produce new high resolution (100m) estimates of current and future climatic variables to be used at the national and regional scale. The test area was Great Britain, where local data are available and of good quality. Present and future climate surfaces were produced. For the present, the approach involved the integration, via spatial interpolation, of local climate information and WorldClim to reduce bias. For future climate scenarios the approach involved spatially downscaling of WorldClim (1km) to a finer resolution of 100m. The main advantages of the proposed approach are: 1. finer resolution, 2. locally adapted to the study area with use of higher number of meteorological stations and improved accuracy and bias, and 3. computationally efficient while making use of the existing resources provided by WorldClim. Two applications were presented to illustrate the practical consequences of improvements obtained with this method. The first is a measure of rainfall intensity, i.e. the R-factor, widely applied in erosion and catchment-scale studies. The second is an application to species distribution modelling, involving a range of bioclimatic variables. The results highlighted the importance of considering the spatial variability and structure of the data integrated in the modelling, and using data adapted to the geographical extent of the analysis, whenever possible. The results of the applications showed the advantage of using enhanced climatic data in applications such as the estimation of soil erosion, species range shift, carbon stocks and the provision of ecosystem services.

The probability of reciprocal monophyly of gene lineages in three and four species

Reciprocal monophyly, a feature of a genealogy in which multiple groups of descendant lineages each consist of all of the descendants of their respective most recent common ancestors, has been an important concept in studies of species delimitation, phylogeography, population history reconstruction, systematics, and conservation. Computations involving the probability that reciprocal monophyly is observed in a genealogy have played a key role in criteria for defining taxonomic groups and inferring divergence times. The probability of reciprocal monophyly under a coalescent model of population divergence has been studied in detail for groups of gene lineages for pairs of species. Here, we extend this computation to generate corresponding probabilities for sets of gene lineages from three and four species. We study the effects of model parameters on the probability of reciprocal monophyly, finding that it is driven primarily by species tree height, with lesser but still substantial influences of internal branch lengths and sample sizes. We also provide an example application of our results to data from maize and teosinte.

Strong population bottleneck and repeated demographic expansions of Populus adenopoda (Salicaceae) in subtropical China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Glacial refugia and inter-/postglacial recolonization routes during the Quaternary of tree species in Europe and North America are well understood, but far less is known about those of tree species in subtropical eastern Asia. Thus, we have examined the phylogeographic history of Populus adenopoda (Salicaceae), one of the few poplars that naturally occur in this subtropical area.

METHODS

Genetic variations across the range of the species in subtropical China were surveyed using ten nuclear microsatellite loci and four chloroplast fragments (matK, trnG-psbK, psbK-psbI and ndhC-trnV). Coalescent-based analyses were used to test demographic and migration hypotheses. In addition, species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed to infer past, present and future potential distributions of the species.

KEY RESULTS

Thirteen chloroplast haplotypes were detected, and haplotype-rich populations were found in central and southern parts of the species' range. STRUCTURE analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci suggest obvious lineage admixture, especially in peripheral and northern populations. DIYABC analysis suggests that the species might have experienced two independent rounds of demographic expansions and a strong bottleneck in the late Quaternary. SDMs indicate that the species' range contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and contracted northward but expanded eastward during the Last Interglacial (LIG).

CONCLUSIONS

Chloroplast data and SDMs suggest that P. adenopoda might have survived in multiple glacial refugia in central and southern parts of its range during the LGM. Populations of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in the southern part have high chloroplast DNA diversity, but may have contributed little to the postglacial recolonization of northern and eastern parts. The three major demographic events inferred by DIYABC coincide with the initiation of the LIG, start of the LGM and end of the LGM, respectively. The species may have experienced multiple rounds of range contraction during glacial periods and range expansion during interglacial periods. Our study corroborates the importance of combining multiple lines of evidence when reconstructing Quaternary population evolutionary histories.

Mitochondrial DNA analyses and ecological niche modeling reveal post-LGM expansion of the Assam macaque (Macaca assamensis) in the foothills of Nepal Himalaya

Genetic diversity of a species is influenced by multiple factors, including the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and geophysical barriers. Such factors are not yet well documented for fauna from the southern border of the Himalayan region. This study used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to explore how the late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and complex geography of the Himalayan region have shaped genetic diversity, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the Nepalese population of Assam macaques (Macaca assamensis) in the Himalayan foothills. A total of 277 fecal samples were collected from 39 wild troops over almost the entire distribution of the species in Nepal. The mtDNA fragment encompassing the complete control region (1121 bp) was recovered from 208 samples, thus defining 54 haplotypes. Results showed low nucleotide diversity (0.0075 ± SD 0.0001) but high haplotype diversity (0.965 ± SD 0.004). The mtDNA sequences revealed a shallow population genetic structure with a moderate but statistically significant effect of isolation by distance. Demographic history analyses using mtDNA sequences suggested a post-pleistocene population expansion. Paleodistribution reconstruction projected that the potential habitat of the Assam macaque was confined to the lower elevations of central Nepal during the Last Glacial Maximum. With the onset of the Holocene climatic optimum, the glacial refugia population experienced eastward range expansion to higher elevations. We conclude that the low genetic diversity and shallow population genetic structure of the Assam macaque population in the Nepal Himalaya region are the consequence of recent demographic and spatial expansion.

Origin and cross-century dynamics of an avian hybrid zone

Background

Characterizations of the dynamics of hybrid zones in space and time can give insights about traits and processes important in population divergence and speciation. We characterized a hybrid zone between tanagers in the genus Ramphocelus (Aves, Thraupidae) located in southwestern Colombia. We evaluated whether this hybrid zone originated as a result of secondary contact or of primary differentiation, and described its dynamics across time using spatial analyses of molecular, morphological, and coloration data in combination with paleodistribution modeling.

Results

Models of potential historical distributions based on climatic data and genetic signatures of demographic expansion suggested that the hybrid zone likely originated following secondary contact between populations that expanded their ranges out of isolated areas in the Quaternary. Concordant patterns of variation in phenotypic characters across the hybrid zone and its narrow extent are suggestive of a tension zone, maintained by a balance between dispersal and selection against hybrids. Estimates of phenotypic cline parameters obtained using specimens collected over nearly a century revealed that, in recent decades, the zone appears to have moved to the east and to higher elevations, and may have become narrower. Genetic variation was not clearly structured along the hybrid zone, but comparisons between historical and contemporary specimens suggested that temporal changes in its genetic makeup may also have occurred.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the hybrid zone likey resulted from secondary contact between populations. The observed changes in the hybrid zone may be a result of sexual selection, asymmetric gene flow, or environmental change.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi: 10.1186/s12862-017-1096-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The disjunct pattern of the Neotropical harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Gonyleptidae) explained by climate-driven range shifts in the Quaternary: Paleodistributional and molecular evidence

The disjunct distribution of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones, Gonyleptidae) is used as a case study to test the hypothesis of a trans-Chaco Pleistocene paleobridge during range expansion stages. This would have temporarily connected humid regions (‘Mesopotamia’ in northeastern Argentina, and the ‘Yungas’ in the northwest, NWA) in the subtropical and temperate South American lowlands. The present study combines two independent approaches: paleodistributional reconstruction, using the Species Distribution Modeling method MaxEnt and projection onto Quaternary paleoclimates (6 kya, 21 kya, 130 kya), and phylogeographic analyses based on the cytochrome oxidase subunit I molecular marker. Models predict a maximal shrinkage during the warm Last Interglacial (130 kya), and the rise of the hypothesized paleobridge in the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya), revealing that cold-dry stages (not warm-humid ones, as supposed) enabled the range expansion of this species. The disjunction was formed in the mid-Holocene (6 kya) and is intensified under current conditions. The median-joining network shows that NWA haplotypes are peripherally related to different Mesopotamian lineages; haplotypes from Santa Fe and Córdoba Provinces consistently occupy central positions in the network. According to the dated phylogeny, Mesopotamia-NWA expansion events would have occurred in the last glacial period, in many cases closely associated to the Last Glacial Maximum, with most divergence events occurring shortly thereafter. Only two (out of nine) NWA haplotypes are shared with Mesopotamian localities. A single, presumably relictual NWA haplotype was found to have diverged much earlier, suggesting an ancient expansion event not recoverable by the paleodistributional models. Different measures of sequence statistics, genetic diversity, population structure and history of demographic changes are provided. This research offers the first available evidence for the historical origin of NWA disjunct populations of a Mesopotamian harvestman.

Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles, Mecistops and Osteolaemus?

The mid-Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species-Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent-based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500-18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species.

Glacial survival of trophically linked boreal species in northern Europe

Whether non-arctic species persisted in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is highly debated. Until now, the debate has mostly focused on plants, with little consideration for other groups of organisms, e.g. the numerous plant-dependent insect species. Here, we study the late-Quaternary evolution of the European range of a boreo-montane leaf beetle, Gonioctena intermedia, which feeds exclusively on the boreal and temperate trees Prunus padus and Sorbus aucuparia Using species distribution models, we estimated the congruence between areas of past and present suitable climate for this beetle and its host plants. Then we derived historical hypotheses from the congruent range estimates, and evaluated their compatibility with observed DNA sequence variation at five independent loci. We investigated compatibility using computer simulations of population evolution under various coalescence models. We find strong evidence for range modifications in response to late-Quaternary climate changes, and support for the presence of populations of G. intermedia in northern Europe since the beginning of the last glaciation. The presence of a co-dependent insect in the region through the LGM provides new evidence supporting the glacial survival of cold-tolerant tree species in northern Europe.

Evolutionary and ecological forces influencing population diversification in Bornean montane passerines

The mountains of Borneo are well known for their high endemicity and historical role in preserving Southeast Asian rainforest biodiversity, but the diversification of populations inhabiting these mountains is poorly studied. Here we examine the genetic structure of 12 Bornean montane passerines by comparing complete mtDNA ND2 gene sequences of populations spanning the island. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic trees and haplotype networks are examined for common patterns that might signal important historical events or boundaries to dispersal. Morphological and ecological characteristics of each species are also examined using phylogenetic generalized least-squares (PGLS) for correlation with population structure. Populations in only four of the 12 species are subdivided into distinct clades or haplotype groups. Although this subdivision occurred at about the same time in each species (ca. 0.6-0.7Ma), the spatial positioning of the genetic break differs among the species. In two species, northeastern populations are genetically divergent from populations elsewhere on the island. In the other two species, populations in the main Bornean mountain chain, including the northeast, are distinct from those on two isolated peaks in northwestern Borneo. We suggest different historical forces played a role in shaping these two distributions, despite commonality in timing. PGLS analysis showed that only a single characteristic-hand-wing index-is correlated with population structure. Birds with longer wings, and hence potentially more dispersal power, have less population structure. To understand historical forces influencing montane population structure on Borneo, future studies must compare populations across the entirety of Sundaland.

Demographic stability and high historical connectivity explain the diversity of a savanna tree species in the Quaternary

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cyclic glaciations were frequent throughout the Quaternary and this affected species distribution and population differentiation worldwide. The present study reconstructed the demographic history and dispersal routes of Eugenia dysenterica lineages and investigated the effects of Quaternary climate change on its spatial pattern of genetic diversity.

METHODS

A total of 333 individuals were sampled from 23 populations and analysed by sequencing four regions of the chloroplast DNA and the internal transcribed spacer of the nuclear DNA. The analyses were performed using a multi-model inference approach based on ecological niche modelling and statistical phylogeography.

KEY RESULTS

Coalescent simulation showed that population stability through time is the most likely scenario. The palaeodistribution dynamics predicted by the ecological niche models revealed that the species was potentially distributed across a large area, extending over Central-Western Brazil through the last glaciation. The lineages of E. dysenterica dispersed from Central Brazil towards populations at the northern, western and south-eastern regions. A historical refugium through time may have favoured lineage dispersal and the maintenance of genetic diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the central region of the Cerrado biome is probably the centre of distribution of E. dysenterica and that the spatial pattern of its genetic diversity may be the outcome of population stability throughout the Quaternary. The lower genetic diversity in populations in the south-eastern Cerrado biome is probably due to local climatic instability during the Quaternary.