The distribution and abundance of animal populations in a climate of uncertainty

Sub-optimal temperatures lead to altered expression of stress-related genes and increased 'Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum' accumulation in potato psyllid

Introduction

The potato psyllid Bactericera cockerelli is the insect vector of the fastidious bacterium 'Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum'. The bacterium infects both B. cockerelli and plant species, causing zebra chip (ZC) disease of potato and vein-greening disease of tomato. Temperatures are known to influence the initiation and progression of disease symptom in the host plant, and seasonal transitions from moderate to high temperatures trigger psyllid dispersal migration to facilitate survival.

Methods

'Ca. L. solanacearum' -infected and uninfected psyllids were reared at previously established 'permissible', optimal, and 'non-permissible' and temperatures of 18°C, 24°C, and 30°C, respectively. Gene expression profiles for 'Ca. L. solanacearum'-infected and -uninfected adult psyllids reared at different temperatures were characterized by Illumina RNA-Seq analysis. Bacterial genome copy number was quantified by real-time quantitative-PCR (qPCR) amplification.

Results

Relative gene expression profiles varied in psyllids reared at the three experimental temperatures. Psyllids reared at 18°C and 30°C exhibited greater fold-change increased expression of stress- and 'Ca. L. solanacearum' invasion-related proteins. Quantification by qPCR of bacterial genome copy number revealed that 'Ca. L. solanacearum' accumulation was significantly lower in psyllids reared at 18°C and 30°C, compared to 24°C.

Discussion

Temperature is a key factor in the life history of potato psyllid and multiplication/accumulation of 'Ca. L. solanacearum' in both the plant and psyllid host, influences the expression of genes associated with thermal stress tolerance, among others, and may have been instrumental in driving the co-evolution of the pathosystem.

Mapping the Geographic Distribution of Large Branchiopods in Algeria and a checklist update

The objective of this study was to assess the diversity and distribution of large branchiopods in the Algerian Sahara and Hauts Plateaux. The survey identified a total of eleven species, classified into seven Anostraca, two Notostraca, and two Spinicaudata. Large branchiopods were found in 76.6% of the sites surveyed. In particular, new records of Triops granarius (Lucas, 1864) were obtained from the Tasilli NAjjer region (Central Sahara), while Eocyzicus saharicus (Gauthier, 1937) was added to the list of large branchiopods of Algeria, bringing the total number of species in Algeria to twenty-four. In addition, this study examines the latitudinal gradient of major branchiopod assemblages in Algeria, extending from the northern Mediterranean coast to the arid regions of the Sahara. The study identifies eight major assemblages of large branchiopods distributed across different ecoclimatic zones that occur along the latitudinal and longitudinal axes of the country. In addition, the study draws parallels between Algerian assemblages and those in neighboring Morocco and Tunisia.

Attackers gain the upper hand over plants in the face of rapid global change

Interactions among organisms in natural ecosystems are the foundational underpinnings of nearly all ecological studies. It has never been more important to increase our awareness of how these interactions are altered by human activity, threatening biodiversity and disrupting ecosystem functioning. Much of the historic focus of species conservation has been the preservation of endangered and endemic species at risk from hunting, over-exploitation, and habitat destruction. However, there is increasing evidence that differences between plants and their attacking organisms in the speed and direction of physiological, demographic, and genetic (adaptation) responses to global change are having devastating consequences, resulting in large-scale losses of dominant or abundant plant species, particularly in forest ecosystems. From the elimination in the wild of the American chestnut to the extensive regional damage caused by insect outbreaks in temperate forest ecosystems, these losses of dominant species change the ecological landscape and functioning, and represent important threats to biodiversity at all scales. Introductions due to human activity, range shifts due to climate change, and their combination are the principal drivers behind these profound ecosystem changes. In this Review, we argue that there is an urgent need to increase our recognition and hone our predictive power for how these imbalances may occur. Moreover, we should seek to minimize the consequences of these imbalances in order to ensure the preservation of the structure, function and biodiversity of entire ecosystems, not just rare or highly endangered species.

Reproducing during Heat Waves: Influence of Juvenile and Adult Environment on Fecundity of a Pest Mite and Its Predator

The thermal history of arthropod predators and their prey may affect their reproductive performance during heat waves. Thus, a matching juvenile and adult environment should be beneficial as it enables the individuals to acclimate to extreme conditions. Prey fecundity, however, is also affected by a second stressor, namely predation risk. Here, we assessed the impact of extreme and mild heat waves on the reproductive output of acclimated (juvenile and adult heat wave conditions are matching) and non-acclimated females of the biocontrol agent Phytoseiulus persimilis, a predatory mite, and its herbivorous prey, the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae, on bean leaves. Their escape and oviposition rates and egg sizes were recorded over 10 days. Additionally, ovipositing prey females were exposed to predator cues and heat waves. Acclimation changed the escape rates and egg sizes of both species, whereas fecundity was only influenced by the adult thermal environment via increased egg numbers under extreme heat waves. Acclimation reduced predator and prey escape rates, which were higher for the predator. Pooled over acclimation, both species deposited more but smaller eggs under extreme heat waves. Acclimation dampened this effect in prey eggs, whereas acclimation resulted in smaller female eggs of the predator. Prey deposited larger male and female eggs. Predator cues reduced prey oviposition, but the effect was small compared to the large increase gained under extreme heat waves. We argue that the success of predators in controlling spider mites during heat waves mainly depends on the fates of escaping predators. A permanent absence of predators may result in the numerical dominance of prey.

Meta-analysis reveals variance in tolerance to climate change across marine trophic levels

Marine ecosystems are currently facing a variety of anthropogenic perturbations, including climate change. Trophic differences in response to climate change may disrupt ecological interactions and thereby threaten marine ecosystem function. Yet, we still do not have a comprehensive understanding of how different trophic levels respond to climate change stressors in marine ecosystems. By including 1278 experiments, comprising 236 different marine species from 18 different phyla in a meta-analysis of studies measuring the direct effect of ocean acidification and ocean warming on marine organisms, we found that higher trophic level species display greater tolerance to ocean acidification but greater sensitivity to warming. In contrast, marine herbivores were the most vulnerable trophic level to both acidification and warming. Such imbalances in the community and a general reduction of biodiversity and biomass in lower trophic levels can significantly disrupt the system and could drive negative bottom-up effects. In conclusion, with ocean acidification and elevated temperatures, there is an alarming risk that trophic disparity may disrupt species interactions, and thereby drive community destabilization under ocean climate change.

Asymmetric Responses to Climate Change: Temperature Differentially Alters Herbivore Salivary Elicitor and Host Plant Responses to Herbivory

The effect of temperature on insect-plant interactions in the face of changing climate is complex as the plant, its herbivores and their interactions are usually affected differentially leading to an asymmetry in response. Using experimental warming and a combination of biochemical and herbivory bioassays, the effects of elevated temperatures and herbivore damage (Helicoverpa zea) on resistance and tolerance traits of Solanum lycopersicum var. Better boy (tomato), as well as herbivory performance and salivary defense elicitors were examined. Insects and plants were differentially sensitive towards warming within the experimental temperature range. Herbivore growth rate increased with temperature, whereas plants growth as well as the ability to tolerate stress measured by photosynthesis recovery and regrowth ability were compromised at the highest temperature regime. In particular, temperature influenced the caterpillars’ capacity to induce plant defenses due to changes in the amount of a salivary defense elicitor, glucose oxidase (GOX). This was further complexed by the temperature effects on plant inducibility, which was significantly enhanced at an above-optimum temperature; this paralleled with an increased plants resistance to herbivory but significantly varied between previously damaged and undamaged leaves. Elevated temperatures produced asymmetry in species’ responses and changes in the relationship among species, indicating a more complicated response under a climate change scenario.

Effects of Extreme Low Winter Temperatures on the Overwintering Survival of the Introduced Larval Parasitoids Spathius galinae and Tetrastichus planipennisi: Implications for Biological Control of Emerald Ash Borer in North America

Climate change has been linked to shifts in the distribution and phenology of species although little is known about the potential effects that extreme low winter temperatures may have on insect host-parasitoid interactions. In late January 2019, northern regions of the United States experienced a severe cold wave caused by a weakened jet stream, destabilizing the Arctic polar vortex. Approximately 3 mo later at six study sites in southern Michigan and three in southern Connecticut, we sampled the overwintering larvae of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), and two larval parasitoids, Spathius galinae (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Tetrastichus planipennisi (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), that are being introduced as emerald ash borer biocontrol agents in North America. At these nine study sites, emerald ash borer-infested ash trees and/or saplings were debarked and each overwintering emerald ash borer and parasitoid larva was then examined for cold-induced mortality, as indicated by a brown coloration, flaccid, and watery consistency. In early spring in Michigan, we found 4.5-26% of emerald ash borer larvae, 18-50% of S. galinae larvae, and 8-35% of T. planipennisi larvae were killed by cold. In Connecticut where temperatures were more moderate than in Michigan during the 2019 cold wave, <2% of the larval hosts and parasitoids died from cold injury. Our findings revealed that cold-induced mortality of overwintering larvae of emerald ash borer and its larval parasitoids varied by location and species, with higher mortality of parasitoid larvae in most Michigan sites compared to host larvae. The potential impacts of our findings on the management of emerald ash borer using biocontrol are discussed.

Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25-year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non-Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton-planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were T mean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.

Modelling the abundance and productivity distribution to understand the habitat–species relationship: the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) case study

Abstract ContextThe conservation of large wild herbivores presents a challenge posed by the fact that their broad habitat requirements overlap with various human activities. Elucidating the factors that explain their distribution patterns provides us with a better understanding of habitat–species relationships and facilitates the design of effective management policies. AimsIdentify the natural (forage availability, weather) and anthropogenic (hunting, interspecific competition) factors that explain the abundance and productivity distribution of the guanaco. Estimate guanaco abundance and productivity and describe their distribution. MethodsWe estimated the abundance and productivity of guanaco by using aerial surveys during the breeding and non-breeding season of two consecutive years, following the strip-transect methodology; we then modelled these as a function of environmental factors by means of density surface models. Key resultsThe highest abundance and productivity of guanaco occurred mostly where mesic grassland was dominant. Guanaco abundance presented three hotspots on the basis of geographic location, and family groups were more productive at low to intermediate livestock level. Abundance was significantly higher in the breeding season for both years (5614 and 14092 individuals) than in the non-breeding season (2922 and 6926 individuals), and it was higher in 2015 than in 2014. Productivity was higher in 2015 than in 2014 (0.54 and 0.46 calves per adult respectively). ConclusionsGuanaco responded to forage availability, occupying zones with low to intermediate food availability in the breeding season, and those with the highest availability in the non-breeding season. This could be due to interspecific competition between livestock and guanaco family groups. We propose that the overall guanaco response could also be explained by social structure or by unassessed factors such as predation risk by feral dogs. ImplicationsThe guanaco could compensate for the use of habitats with a lower food availability during the breeding season by using better-quality habitats during the non-breeding season.

Changes in Tea Plant Secondary Metabolite Profiles as a Function of Leafhopper Density and Damage

Insect herbivores have dramatic effects on the chemical composition of plants. Many of these induced metabolites contribute to the quality (e.g., flavor, human health benefits) of specialty crops such as the tea plant (Camellia sinensis). Induced chemical changes are often studied by comparing plants damaged and undamaged by herbivores. However, when herbivory is quantitative, the relationship between herbivore pressure and induction can be linearly or non-linearly density dependent or density independent, and induction may only occur after some threshold of herbivory. The shape of this relationship can vary among metabolites within plants. The tea green leafhopper (Empoasca onukii) can be a widespread pest on tea, but some tea farmers take advantage of leafhopper-induced metabolites in order to produce high-quality "bug-bitten" teas such as Eastern Beauty oolong. To understand the effects of increasing leafhopper density on tea metabolites important for quality, we conducted a manipulative experiment exposing tea plants to feeding by a range of E. onukii densities. After E. onukii feeding, we measured volatile and non-volatile metabolites, and quantified percent damaged leaf area from scanned leaf images. E. onukii density had a highly significant effect on volatile production, while the effect of leaf damage was only marginally significant. The volatiles most responsive to leafhopper density were mainly terpenes that increased in concentration monotonically with density, while the volatiles most responsive to leaf damage were primarily fatty acid derivatives and volatile phenylpropanoids/benzenoids. In contrast, damage (percent leaf area damaged), but not leafhopper density, significantly reduced total polyphenols, epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), and theobromine concentrations in a dose-dependent manner. The shape of induced responses varied among metabolites with some changing linearly with herbivore pressure and some responding only after a threshold in herbivore pressure with a threshold around 0.6 insects/leaf being common. This study illustrates the importance of measuring a diversity of metabolites over a range of herbivory to fully understand the effects of herbivores on induced metabolites. Our study also shows that any increases in leafhopper density associated with climate warming, could have dramatic effects on secondary metabolites and tea quality.

A primary investigation of the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic factors in Iran

Brucella spp. are Gram-negative coccobacilli that may grow in different media and environmental conditions for extended periods of time. The survivals of these bacteria in the environment have an important impact on the epidemiology of brucellosis worldwide. The effect of climate on the incidence of certain zoonotic infectious diseases, (recently referred to as climate-sensitive zoonosis) is now well established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic parameters in Iran, an important endemic region for brucellosis with diverse climate. The information on the incidence of human brucellosis in different Iranian provinces for 2016 has been provided by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran. Annual meteorological data collected between 2015 and 2016 were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological organization (IMO). A regression analysis of the incidence of brucellosis was performed via STATA 14.0 and the heterogeneity among observations was determined via Cochrane's Q-test and I² statistic. If I² index was higher than 50%, heterogeneity was considered as considerable. The results of regression analyses revealed a negative significant association between mean ambient air temperature and brucellosis incidence (C = - 0.022, P value = 0.004). Likewise, a positive significant association was found between number of frosty days and brucellosis incidence (C = 0.002, p value = 0.003). Other metrological parameters showed no significant effect on the human brucellosis incidence. Although our results suggest a high degree of temperature sensitivity in regards to the brucellosis incidence in Iran, this study opens up prospects for further investigations regarding environmental conditions and climatic changes influencing the spatial distributions and seasonal/annual cycle of this zoonotic pathogen worldwide.

A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

The latitudinal herbivory hypothesis revisited: To be part is to be whole

As the big data accumulation in ecology picks up pace, we now have the opportunity to test several macroecological hypotheses, such as the latitudinal herbivory hypothesis (LHH) dated from the 1990s. The LHH proposes that plant-herbivore interactions decrease as latitude increases, that is, from lower latitudinal areas (i.e., the equator) to higher latitudinal areas (i.e., the poles). This hypothesis has been challenged in recent years. In this study, we used the greatest volume dataset of leaf herbivory from the study of Zhang et al. (Journal of Ecology, 104, 2016, 1089) to test the LHH at a global scale, based on a quantile regression model. We found that the mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and potential net primary production were heterogeneously correlated with herbivory at different quantiles or variable intervals. Although the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global-scale trends are in accordance with the expected latitudinal variation, the Southern Hemisphere (SH) was found to exhibit inverse trends. The latitude has a negative effect on plant-herbivore interactions in the NH and on a global scale; leaf herbivory decreased more at a given latitude in higher latitudinal areas, which is attributed to harsher survival conditions in these areas. The uniformity of leaf herbivory variability along the climate and latitude gradient in the NH and on a global scale motivates that the loosening of this herbivory variability in the SH is not significant enough to dismiss the prevalence of the LHH, a testable macroecology hypothesis.

Approaching Ecological Sustainability in the Emerging Insects-as-Food Industry

The emerging insects-as-food industry is increasingly promoted as a sustainable alternative to other animal protein production systems. However, the exact nature of its environmental benefits are uncertain because of the overwhelming lack of knowledge concerning almost every aspect of production: from suitable species, their housing and feed requirements, and potential for accidental release. If ecological sustainability is to be a hallmark of mass insect rearing for consumption, ecologists need to engage in research related to sustainability criteria that are directly linked to key elements of the development of the industry. There is more to this subject than simply comparing feed-conversion ratios (FCRs) of insects to traditional livestock production, and we highlight areas where research needs to be immediately focused.

Aridity and land use negatively influence a dominant species' upper critical thermal limits

Understanding the physiological tolerances of ectotherms, such as thermal limits, is important in predicting biotic responses to climate change. However, it is even more important to examine these impacts alongside those from other landscape changes: such as the reduction of native vegetation cover, landscape fragmentation and changes in land use intensity (LUI). Here, we integrate the observed thermal limits of the dominant and ubiquitous meat ant Iridomyrmex purpureus across climate (aridity), land cover and land use gradients spanning 270 km in length and 840 m in altitude across northern New South Wales, Australia. Meat ants were chosen for study as they are ecosystem engineers and changes in their populations may result in a cascade of changes in the populations of other species. When we assessed critical thermal maximum temperatures (CTmax) of meat ants in relation to the environmental gradients we found little influence of climate (aridity) but that CTmax decreased as LUI increased. We found no overall correlation between CTmax and CTmin. We did however find that tolerance to warming was lower for ants sampled from more arid locations. Our findings suggest that as LUI and aridification increase, the physiological resilience of I. purpureus will decline. A reduction in physiological resilience may lead to a reduction in the ecosystem service provision that these populations provide throughout their distribution.

Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change

Deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, have warmed and dried more than other regions in the contiguous United States due to climate change. Our resurveys of sites originally visited in the early 20th century found Mojave Desert birds strongly declined in occupancy and sites lost nearly half of their species. Declines were associated with climate change, particularly decreased precipitation. The magnitude of the decline in the avian community and the absence of species that were local climatological “winners” are exceptional. Our results provide evidence that bird communities in the Mojave Desert have collapsed to a new, lower baseline. Declines could accelerate with future climate change, as this region is predicted to become drier and hotter by the end of the century.

Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.

Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change

Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of T_mean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.

Giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, increases faunal diversity through physical engineering

Foundation species define the ecosystems they live in, but ecologists have often characterized dominant plants as foundational without supporting evidence. Giant kelp has long been considered a marine foundation species due to its complex structure and high productivity; however, there is little quantitative evidence to evaluate this. Here, we apply structural equation modelling to a 15-year time series of reef community data to evaluate how giant kelp affects the reef community. Although species richness was positively associated with giant kelp biomass, most direct paths did not involve giant kelp. Instead, the foundational qualities of giant kelp were driven mostly by indirect effects attributed to its dominant physical structure and associated engineering influence on the ecosystem, rather than by its use as food by invertebrates and fishes. Giant kelp structure has indirect effects because it shades out understorey algae that compete with sessile invertebrates. When released from competition, sessile species in turn increase the diversity of mobile predators. Sea urchin grazing effects could have been misinterpreted as kelp effects, because sea urchins can overgraze giant kelp, understorey algae and sessile invertebrates alike. Our results confirm the high diversity and biomass associated with kelp forests, but highlight how species interactions and habitat attributes can be misconstrued as direct consequences of a foundation species like giant kelp.

Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations

Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO₂) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects development and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), because responses at the highest trophic level (natural enemies) are highly sensitive to warmer temperature. It is expected that natural enemies could benefit from better conditions for their development in northern latitudes and IPM could be facilitated by a longer period of overlap. This may not be the case in southern latitudes, where climate could become too warm. Adapting IPM to future climatic conditions requires therefore understanding of changes that occur at the various levels and their linkages. The aim of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and highlights the gaps in the existing literature concerning how climate change can affect tritrophic relations. Because of the economic importance of wine production, the interactions between grapevine, Vitis vinifera (1st), Lobesia botrana (2nd) and Trichogramma spp., (3rd), an egg parasitoid of Lobesia botrana, are considered as a case study for addressing specific issues. In addition, we discuss models that could be applied in order quantify alterations in the synchrony or asynchrony patterns but also the shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of hosts, pests and their natural enemies.

Spring warming increases the abundance of an invasive specialist insect: links to phenology and life history

Under global warming, shifts in phenological synchrony between insects and host plants (i.e., changes in the relative timing of the interaction) may reduce resource availability to specialist insects. Some specialists, however, can flexibly track the shifts in host-plant phenology, allowing them to obtain sufficient resources and therefore to benefit from rising temperatures. Here, we investigated the effects of experimental warming on the life history of an invasive, specialist lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) and on the leaf expansion of its host plant (Platanus × acerifolia) in two spring seasons under field conditions in Shanghai, China. We found that a 2 °C increase in mean air temperature advanced the timing of the expansion of host leaves and of the activities of overwintering adult insects in both years but did not disrupt their synchrony. Warming also directly increased the reproduction of overwintering adults and enhanced the development and survival of their offspring. These results indicate that C. ciliata can well track the earlier emergence of available resources in response to springtime warming. Such plasticity, combined with the direct effects of rising temperatures, may increase the insect’s population size and outbreak potential in eastern China under climate warming.

Spring phenology of cotton bollworm affects wheat yield

Climate change has changed numerous species phenologies. Understanding the asynchronous responses between pest insects and host plants to climate change is helpful in improving integrated pest management. It is necessary to use long-term data to analyze the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis. Data for cotton bollworm, wheat yield, and wheat anthesis collected since 1990 were analyzed using linear regression and partial least-squares regression, as well as the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that warmer temperatures in the spring advanced the phenologies of cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, but the phenology changes in overwintering cotton bollworm were faster than those in wheat anthesis, and the eclosion period of overwintering was prolonged, resulting in an increase in overwintering adult abundance. This might lead to more first-generation larvae and subsequent wheat damage. An early or late first-appearance date significantly affected the eclosion days. The abrupt changes of phenologies in cotton bollworm, wheat anthesis, and climate were asynchronous, but the abrupt phenology changes occurred after or around the climate abrupt change, especially after or around the abrupt changes of temperature in March and April. The expansion of asynchronous responses in the change rate of wheat anthesis and overwintering cotton bollworm would likely decrease wheat yield due to climate warming in the future. Accumulated temperature was the major affecting factor on the first eclosion date (t1), adult abundance, and eclosion days. Temperatures in March and April and precipitation in the winter mainly affected the prepeak date (t2), peak date (t3), and postpeak date (t4), respectively, and these factors indirectly affected wheat yield. Thus, the change in the spring phenology of the cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, and hence wheat yield, was affected by climate warming.

Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee

Warm temperatures are required for insect flight. Consequently, warming could benefit many high-latitude and high-altitude insects by increasing opportunities for foraging or oviposition. However, warming can also alter species interactions, including interactions with natural enemies, making the net effect of rising temperatures on population growth rate difficult to predict. We investigated the temperature-dependence of nesting activity and lifetime reproductive output over 3 yr in subalpine populations of a pollen-specialist bee, Osmia iridis. Rates of nest provisioning increased with ambient temperatures and with availability of floral resources, as expected. However, warmer conditions did not increase lifetime reproductive output. Lifetime offspring production was best explained by rates of brood parasitism (by the wasp Sapyga), which increased with temperature. Direct observations of bee and parasite activity suggest that although activity of both species is favored by warmer temperatures, bees can be active at lower ambient temperatures, while wasps are active only at higher temperatures. Thus, direct benefits to the bees of warmer temperatures were nullified by indirect costs associated with increased parasite activity. To date, most studies of climate-change effects on pollinators have focused on changing interactions between pollinators and their floral host-plants (i.e., bottom-up processes). Our results suggest that natural enemies (i.e., top-down forces) can play a key role in pollinator population regulation and should not be overlooked in forecasts of pollinator responses to climate change.

Influence of CO2 and Temperature on Metabolism and Development of Helicoverpa armigera (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera)

Climate change will have a major bearing on survival and development of insects as a result of increase in CO2 and temperature. Therefore, we studied the direct effects of CO2 and temperature on larval development and metabolism in cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner). The larvae were reared under a range of CO2 (350, 550, and 750 ppm) and temperature (15, 25, 35, and 45°C) regimes on artificial diet. Elevated CO2 negatively affected the larval survival, larval weight, larval period, pupation, and adult emergence, but showed a positive effect on pupal weight, pupal period, and fecundity. Increase in temperature exhibited a negative effect on larval survival, larval period, pupal weights, and pupal period, but a positive effect on larval growth. Pupation and adult emergence were optimum at 25°C. Elevated CO2 and temperature increased food consumption and metabolism of larvae by enhancing the activity of midgut proteases, carbohydrases (amylase and cellulase), and mitochondrial enzymes and therefore may cause more damage to crop production. Elevated CO2 and global warming will affect insect growth and development, which will change the interactions between the insect pests and their crop hosts. Therefore, there is need to gain an understanding of these interactions to develop strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change.

Effects of climate on pine processionary moth fecundity and on its egg parasitoids

Climate change may be affecting the fecundity of phytophagous insects as well as impacting their natural enemies. However, temperature impacts these two insect groups differently, disrupting population regulation mechanisms, and ultimately, possibly culminating in an outbreak of the host. The pine processionary moth (PPM) is one of the most harmful insects of the Mediterranean basin. Not only are PPM larvae harmful to plants, but they are also dangerous to humans because of their urticating hairs. Although some information is available on climate change effects on the PPM, little is known about its potential effects on PPM egg parasitoids, especially on their distribution range or on their role in controlling PPM populations. The aim of this article was to verify the effects of climate on PPM fecundity and on its egg parasitoids. Our results show that climate warming may affect the PPM positively, but not its egg parasitoids. Specifically, during our study mild winters directly favored the PPM, while increasing summer temperatures (over 30°C) also favored the PPM indirectly, by decreasing parasitism rates. We predict that ever‐milder winters will not only favor PPM development, but also encourage it to spread in otherwise previously inhospitable environments.

Utilizing associational resistance for biocontrol: impacted by temperature, supported by indirect defence

Background

Associational herbivore resistance is potentiated by neighbouring heterogenic plant species that impact a focal plant’s attraction to herbivores or the damage that they cause. One mechanism to confer associational resistance is believed to be exposure to neighbour-emitted volatiles, the receivers of which range from intra- and interspecific neighbour plants to higher-trophic-level insects. In previous studies the passive adsorption of neighbour-emitted semivolatiles has been reported, but little is known regarding the mechanisms and ecological consequences on the receiver plant and its associated biota. To utilize volatile-based associational resistance for agricultural applications, it is imperative to know its effectiveness under varying diurnal temperatures and whether herbivore natural enemies, providing biological control, are impacted. Mimicking varying diurnal temperatures in a laboratory set-up, we assessed how the tritrophic model system Brassica oleracea var. italica (broccoli)–Plutella xylostella (crucifer specialist herbivore)–Cotesia vestalis (endoparasitoid of P. xylostella) is influenced by exposure to the natural semivolatile emitter plant Rhododendron tomentosum Harmaja.

Results

Rhododendron tomentosum-exposed B. oleracea was less susceptible to P. xylostella oviposition at both night-time (12°C) and day-time (22°C) temperatures and less favoured and damaged by P. xylostella larvae at 12°C. Exposure did not interfere with indirect defence, i.e. attraction of the natural enemy C. vestalis on host-damaged, R. tomentosum-exposed B. oleracea under 22°C, while there was a reduction in attraction (marginal preference towards host-damaged B. oleracea) under 12°C.

Conclusions

The ability of R. tomentosum exposure to render associational resistance against an agriculturally important Brassica herbivore P. xylostella without severely compromising the specialist parasitoid C. vestalis host location encourages further studies on the potential of using this naturally abundant plant for biocontrol. The generality of our finding on temperature as a potential regulating mechanism for the efficacy of semivolatile emitter-based associational resistance towards specialist pest larval damage should be further studied in natural and agricultural associations. Our study emphasizes the need to develop techniques to compare volatiles at the leaf versus air interface and associate their appearance and ecological role with times of activity and level of specialisation of herbivores and their natural enemies.

Temperature-mediated biotic interactions influence enemy release of nonnative species in warming environments

"Enemy release" occurs when invading species suffer from interactions with pathogens, parasites, herbivores, or predators to a lesser degree than native species due to a lack of shared evolutionary history. Here we provide strong support for the hypothesis that variable thermal sensitivities between a consumer and its resources can generate temperature-dependent enemy release using both a mathematical model and a field experiment. We identify three common scenarios where changes in temperature should alter enemy release based on asymmetric responses among enemies and their resources to changes in temperature: (1) the vital rates of a shared enemy are more sensitive to changes in temperature than its resources, (2) the enemy's thermal maximum for consumption is higher than the resources' maxima for growth, and (3) the invading resource has a higher thermal maximum for growth than its native competitor. Mathematical representations indicated that warming is capable of altering enemy release in each of these three scenarios. We also tested our hypothesis using a mesocosm warming experiment in a system that exhibits variable thermal sensitivities between a predator and its native and nonnative prey. We conducted a six-week experiment manipulating the presence of Lepomis sunfish (present, absent) and water temperature (ambient, heated) using the nonnative crustacean zooplankter, Daphnia lumholtzi, whose morphological defenses reduce predation from juvenile sunfish relative to native Daphnia pulex. Our results indicate that D. lumholtzi benefited to a greater extent from the presence of Lepomis predators as temperatures increase. Taken together, our model and experiment indicate that changes in environmental temperature may directly influence the success of nonnative species and may assist with forecasting the community consequences of biological invasions in a warming world.

Simulated climate warming alters phenological synchrony between an outbreak insect herbivore and host trees

As the world's climate warms, the phenologies of interacting organisms in seasonally cold environments may advance at differing rates, leading to alterations in phenological synchrony that can have important ecological consequences. For temperate and boreal species, the timing of early spring development plays a key role in plant-herbivore interactions and can influence insect performance, outbreak dynamics, and plant damage. We used a field-based, meso-scale free-air forest warming experiment (B4WarmED) to examine the effects of elevated temperature on the phenology and performance of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) in relation to the phenology of two host trees, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera). Results of our 2-year study demonstrated that spring phenology advanced for both insects and trees, with experimentally manipulated increases in temperature of 1.7 and 3.4 °C. However, tree phenology advanced more than insect phenology, resulting in altered phenological synchrony. Specifically, we observed a decrease in the time interval between herbivore egg hatch and budbreak of aspen in both years and birch in one year. Moreover, warming decreased larval development time from egg hatch to pupation, but did not affect pupal mass. Larvae developed more quickly on aspen than birch, but pupal mass was not affected by host species. Our study reveals that warming-induced phenological shifts can alter the timing of ecological interactions across trophic levels. These findings illustrate one mechanism by which climate warming could mediate insect herbivore outbreaks, and also highlights the importance of climate change effects on trophic interactions.

Adaptations to "Thermal Time" Constraints in Papilio: Latitudinal and Local Size Clines Differ in Response to Regional Climate Change

Adaptations to "thermal time" (=Degree-day) constraints on developmental rates and voltinism for North American tiger swallowtail butterflies involve most life stages, and at higher latitudes include: smaller pupae/adults; larger eggs; oviposition on most nutritious larval host plants; earlier spring adult emergences; faster larval growth and shorter molting durations at lower temperatures. Here we report on forewing sizes through 30 years for both the northern univoltine P. canadensis (with obligate diapause) from the Great Lakes historical hybrid zone northward to central Alaska (65° N latitude), and the multivoltine, P. glaucus from this hybrid zone southward to central Florida (27° N latitude). Despite recent climate warming, no increases in mean forewing lengths of P. glaucus were observed at any major collection location (FL to MI) from the 1980s to 2013 across this long latitudinal transect (which reflects the "converse of Bergmann's size Rule", with smaller females at higher latitudes). Unlike lower latitudes, the Alaska, Ontonogon, and Chippewa/Mackinac locations (for P. canadensis) showed no significant increases in D-day accumulations, which could explain lack of size change in these northernmost locations. As a result of 3-4 decades of empirical data from major collection sites across these latitudinal clines of North America, a general "voltinism/size/D-day" model is presented, which more closely predicts female size based on D-day accumulations, than does latitude. However, local "climatic cold pockets" in northern Michigan and Wisconsin historically appeared to exert especially strong size constraints on female forewing lengths, but forewing lengths quickly increased with local summer warming during the recent decade, especially near the warming edges of the cold pockets. Results of fine-scale analyses of these "cold pockets" are in contrast to non-significant changes for other Papilio populations seen across the latitudinal transect for P. glaucus and P. canadensis in general, highlighting the importance of scale in adaptations to climate change. Furthermore, we also show that rapid size increases in cold pocket P. canadensis females with recent summer warming are more likely to result from phenotypic plasticity than genotypic introgression from P. glaucus, which does increase size in late-flight hybrids and P. appalachiensis.

Effects of water availability and pest pressures on tea (Camellia sinensis) growth and functional quality

Extreme shifts in water availability linked to global climate change are impacting crops worldwide. The present study examines the direct and interactive effects of water availability and pest pressures on tea (Camellia sinensis; Theaceae) growth and functional quality. Manipulative greenhouse experiments were used to measure the effects of variable water availability and pest pressures simulated by jasmonic acid (JA) on tea leaf growth and secondary metabolites that determine tea quality. Water treatments were simulated to replicate ideal tea growing conditions and extreme precipitation events in tropical southwestern China, a major centre of tea production. Results show that higher water availability and JA significantly increased the growth of new leaves while their interactive effect was not significant. The effect of water availability and JA on tea quality varied with individual secondary metabolites. Higher water availability significantly increased total methylxanthine concentrations of tea leaves but there was no significant effect of JA treatments or the interaction of water and JA. Water availability, JA treatments or their interactive effects had no effect on the concentrations of epigallocatechin 3-gallate. In contrast, increased water availability resulted in significantly lower concentrations of epicatechin 3-gallate but the effect of JA and the interactive effects of water and JA were not significant. Lastly, higher water availability resulted in significantly higher total phenolic concentrations but there was no significant impact of JA and their interaction. These findings point to the fascinating dynamics of climate change effects on tea plants with offsetting interactions between precipitation and pest pressures within agro-ecosystems, and the need for future climate studies to examine interactive biotic and abiotic effects.

Is climate warming more consequential towards poles? The phenology of Lepidoptera in Finland

The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993-2012 (with years 2005-2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.

Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage

Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

Effects of CO2 and temperature on tritrophic interactions

There has been a significant increase in studies of how global change parameters affect interacting species or entire communities, yet the combined or interactive effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ and associated increases in global mean temperatures on chemically mediated trophic interactions are mostly unknown. Thus, predictions of climate-induced changes on plant-insect interactions are still based primarily on studies of individual species, individual global change parameters, pairwise interactions, or parameters that summarize communities. A clear understanding of community response to global change will only emerge from studies that examine effects of multiple variables on biotic interactions. We examined the effects of increased CO₂ and temperature on simple laboratory communities of interacting alfalfa, chemical defense, armyworm caterpillars, and parasitoid wasps. Higher temperatures and CO₂ caused decreased plant quality, decreased caterpillar development times, developmental asynchrony between caterpillars and wasps, and complete wasp mortality. The effects measured here, along with other effects of global change on natural enemies suggest that biological control and other top-down effects of insect predators will decline over the coming decades.

Potential macro-detritivore range expansion into the subarctic stimulates litter decomposition: a new positive feedback mechanism to climate change?

As a result of low decomposition rates, high-latitude ecosystems store large amounts of carbon. Litter decomposition in these ecosystems is constrained by harsh abiotic conditions, but also by the absence of macro-detritivores. We have studied the potential effects of their climate change-driven northward range expansion on the decomposition of two contrasting subarctic litter types. Litter of Alnus incana and Betula pubescens was incubated in microcosms together with monocultures and all possible combinations of three functionally different macro-detritivores (the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus, isopod Oniscus asellus, and millipede Julus scandinavius). Our results show that these macro-detritivores stimulated decomposition, especially of the high-quality A. incana litter and that the macro-detritivores tested differed in their decomposition-stimulating effects, with earthworms having the largest influence. Decomposition processes increased with increasing number of macro-detritivore species, and positive net diveristy effects occurred in several macro-detritivore treatments. However, after correction for macro-detritivore biomass, all interspecific differences in macro-detritivore effects, as well as the positive effects of species number on subarctic litter decomposition disappeared. The net diversity effects also appeared to be driven by variation in biomass, with a possible exception of net diversity effects in mass loss. Based on these results, we conclude that the expected climate change-induced range expansion of macro-detritivores into subarctic regions is likely to result in accelerated decomposition rates. Our results also indicate that the magnitude of macro-detritivore effects on subarctic decomposition will mainly depend on macro-detritivore biomass, rather than on macro-detritivore species number or identity.

Causes behind insect folivory patterns in latitudinal gradients

1.Adams and Zhang recently published one of the best studies so far of patterns of insect folivory along a latitudinal (climatic) gradient. They show clear negative trends in foliage loss in relation to temperature for certain groups of insect herbivores.2.Although their suggestion that the plant-herbivore interaction may be more important in cooler climates could be valid, they did not bring up the complementary explanation that interactions between predators and herbivores could also vary with climate. There are indications that insect natural enemies may respond more positively than insect herbivores to an increase in temperature. We argue that higher predator pressure in warmer climates may partly explain the patterns observed by Adams and Zhang.3.Synthesis.To further develop the important research concerning herbivory in a changing climate, both theoretically and empirically, plant ecologists and entomologists would mutually benefit from joining forces.

High temperature triggers latent variation among individuals: oviposition rate and probability for outbreaks

Background

It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20°C). It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20°C continued to do so when transferred to 12°C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20°C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12°C. When transferred back to 20°C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature.

Conclusions/Significance

If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.