The educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation in Europe

Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition? Evidence From Canada and the United States

A central premise of the first demographic transition theory is that demographic change would occur more slowly in rural than urban areas. Few studies, however, have investigated whether rural areas remain holdouts during the second demographic transition. To address this gap, this study (1) examines trends among rural and urban families in Canada and the United States over a 30-year period and (2) determines whether compositional differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and religious factors explain current differences between rural and urban families. We find that rural Canadian women continue to have, on average, 0.6 more children than urban women. However, rural families do not trail behind urban families on any other indicator of family change. In fact, rural women in both countries are now significantly more likely to cohabit and roughly 10 percentage points more likely to have children outside of marriage than urban women. These differences are largely explained by lower levels of education and income among rural American women and fewer immigrants in rural Canada. Examining family change through a rural-urban lens fills important empirical gaps and yields novel insights into current debates on the fundamental causes of ongoing family change in high-income countries.

Family ideals in an era of low fertility

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach

We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis.

Childbearing across partnerships in Italy: Prevalence, demographic correlates, and social gradient

Studies of childbearing across partnerships-having children with more than one partner-have generally focused on countries with relatively high separation rates. We complement this previous research with analyses for Italy using nationally representative, retrospective data and event-history techniques. This study offers three key findings. First, we detected a non-negligible share of childbearing across partnerships, although at substantially lower levels relative to other wealthy countries (5 per cent of parents aged 25-54 with at least two children). Second, multivariate analyses revealed an impressive similarity to the demographic correlates found elsewhere. Finally, we showed that childbearing across partnerships was initiated by the 'social vanguard' of new family behaviours but then diffused among the least well-off. Overall, this paper adds to the growing literature on childbearing across partnerships by showing the phenomenon to be demographically and sociologically relevant, even in countries with strong family ties and a limited diffusion of union dissolution.

The Influence of Partnership Status on Fertility Intentions of Childless Women and Men Across European Countries

The absence of a suitable partner is the most frequently given reason for unmet fertility intentions across European countries while having a partner is positively associated with the intention to have a child. However, once this relationship is framed within a life-course approach, existing evidence is mixed and inconclusive. The norm to have children within a stable relationship and norms regarding the timing of childbirth are acknowledged in many contemporary societies. Therefore, the presence of a partner might have a stronger effect on fertility intentions around the social deadline for fertility, which could explain the mixed findings in previous research. This article analyses how fertility intentions are influenced by partnership status and how this relationship varies by age and across countries. We use data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey to analyse a sample of childless men and women aged 18-45 years from 12 European countries. We implement logistic regression models to investigate the influence of having a partner on fertility intentions during the life course. Previous studies found that the positive influence of having a partner either decreases across the life course or does not vary significantly. This study reveals that the positive association between partnership and fertility intentions increases from the age of 18, proving that whether someone is in a partnership becomes more influential at later stages in life. After a certain age threshold, which varies across countries and gender, this positive association either turns insignificant, remains positive, or reverses.

Fertility Intentions and Sexual Orientation: Evidence from the 2020 Youth Survey in Estonia

Attitudes towards sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in Western countries recently. This has led to an increase in research into the experiences of sexual minorities in a variety of life domains. Although parenthood is a valued life goal only a few small-scale studies have looked into the parenthood goals of individuals in relation to their sexual orientation. The aims of this study are to analyse the diversity of sexual orientation, the factors associated with it and the relationship to fertility intentions among adolescents aged 16 to 19. The study draws on a nationally representative youth survey conducted in 2020 in Estonia (N = 1624), and employs descriptive methods and logistic and linear regression models. The results show that adolescents in Estonia exhibit considerable diversity of sexual orientation, with one-fifth reporting some degree of attraction to their own sex. The minority sexual orientation is more frequent among groups which can be regarded as more open or exposed to new behaviours, but is also associated with a disadvantaged family background. The results reveal a clear negative association between the intended number of children and the minority sexual orientation, which is not explained by other available variables.

Relationship quality and family formation in Europe

The increase in cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing across Europe has raised questions about who still marries either before or after having a child. Although prior studies have addressed the sequence of marriage and childbearing, few have examined the role of relationship quality in these transitions. Here we employ a cross-national perspective to study the association between relationship quality and marriage and/or first birth within cohabitation. Using the Generations and Gender Survey and UK Household Longitudinal Study, we study seven European countries (Austria, France, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and UK). We employ competing risk hazard models to follow respondents as they 1) transition from cohabitation into marriage or conception (or separation); 2) transition to marriage (or separation) after having a birth within cohabitation. Results show that cohabitors with higher relationship quality are more marriage prone than those in lower quality relationships in Austria, France, Hungary, and the UK, but not in the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Instead, higher relationship quality is associated with higher conception risks in cohabitation in Sweden. After childbearing, we find a positive association between relationship quality and marriage among cohabiting parents in the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. These results suggest that marriage is still important for couples with higher quality relationships; however, in countries where cohabitation is widespread, the timing of marriage may have shifted to after childbearing.

Mental health benefits of cohabitation and marriage: A longitudinal analysis of Norwegian register data

The aim is to examine how mental health is affected by cohabitation and marriage. Individual fixed-effects models are estimated from Norwegian register data containing information about consultations with a general practitioner because of mental health conditions in 2006-19. Mental health, as indicated by annual number of consultations, improves over several years before cohabitation. For those marrying their cohabiting partner, there is a weak further reduction in consultations until the wedding, but no decline afterwards. In other words, formalization of the union does not seem to confer additional mental health benefits. However, marriage may be considered a marker of favourable earlier development in mental health. In contrast, there is further improvement after direct marriage, as well as stronger improvement over the years just preceding direct marriage. Patterns are quite similar for women and men. Overall, the results suggest that the mental health benefits of cohabitation and marriage are similar.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2063933. Note: numbers in brackets refer to supplementary notes that can be found at the end of the supplementary material.

Sleep hours and quality before and after baby: Inequalities by gender and partnership

While prior studies have examined sleep across the lifecourse, few studies have investigated sleep around the birth of a child, one of the most important events to cause sleep deprivation. This study investigates changes in sleep hours and quality, paying attention to differences by gender and partnership status. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, we follow approximately 1,000 participants as they transition into parenthood in a three-year window. We use OLS and logistic regression to analyze changes in sleep hours and sleep quality. Results suggest that women's sleep is reduced by an average of 0.7 hours (42 min) on becoming a mother. Whilst before parenthood women sleep more than men, after childbirth women and men sleep similar amounts. Cohabiting men experience a greater reduction in sleep by around 0.5 hours (30 min) than married men, to the level similar to women, suggesting that new cohabiting fathers may experience more sleep disturbances.

Does union type make a difference when you separate? Frequency of father–child contact and father’s satisfaction with the relation

Growing separation and divorce rates have attracted scholars’ attention to the association between relationship breakup and the relations between fathers and their minor children. Pre-separation life course events and characteristics may influence this relationship. One important characteristic to be considered is the type of union in which ex-partners were in. In this article, we study the association between previous union type and post-dissolution father–child face-to-face contact and father’s satisfaction with the relationship, before and after controlling for factors related to selection into a cohabiting union. Using pooled data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey for 11 European countries, it is shown that, models that do not control for characteristics typically connected with selection into different union types suggest that previously cohabiting fathers have less intensive contact with their child(ren) and are less satisfied with the relationship with their minor children. Taking into consideration the main socio-demographic father and child’s characteristics, this difference turns out not to be statistically significant. This research suggests that union type does not make a difference, confirming most previous studies of single European countries.

So happy together … Examining the association between relationship happiness, socio-economic status, and family transitions in the UK

The increases in cohabitation and in childbearing within cohabitation raise questions about who marries. Most studies have found that childbearing within cohabitation is associated with disadvantage; here, we examine the role of relationship happiness and whether it helps to explain this association. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-17), our competing risk hazard models follow respondents as they transition: (1) from cohabitation into marriage or childbearing; and (2) from marriage or cohabitation into childbearing. We find that marriage risks are highest among individuals who are happiest with their relationship. On average, the association between relationship quality and childbearing operates through marriage: the happiest individuals marry, and those who marry have children. While higher socio-economic status is weakly associated with marriage, conception, and separation, the associations do not differ by relationship happiness. The findings indicate that overall, relationship happiness appears to be most salient for transitions into marriage.

Pooling of Wealth in Marriage: The Role of Premarital Cohabitation

Previous studies documented the existence of a 'cohabitation-marriage gap' in resource pooling among opposite-sex partners, with cohabiters being more likely to separate income and wealth than married individuals. Surprisingly, despite many non-marital cohabitations transform into marriages, we know little about income and wealth pooling of 'spousal cohabiters', i.e. spouses who transition to marriage after experiencing a period of non-marital cohabitation. The comparison between 'spousal cohabiters' and directly married spouses is particularly interesting because it offers a litmus test of theories of marriage in relation to how and why economic resources are differently distributed within married vs. cohabiting couples. This paper compares directly married couples and 'spousal cohabiters' in Italy, focusing on one aspect of resource pooling: the marital property regime, i.e. the choice made at the time of marriage between joint or separate ownership of wealth accumulated during marriage. Competing hypotheses are developed on the basis of the arguments that marriage yields legal protection, that selection mechanisms drive both the choice of community vs. separation of property and direct marriage vs. premarital cohabitation, and that, by inertia, 'spousal cohabiters' continue to separate resources upon transition to marriage. Results based on the 2016 Italian 'Family and social subjects' survey show that 'spousal cohabiters' are significantly more likely to choose separation of property compared to directly married spouses. Such differences, however, are drastically reduced once relevant confounders are controlled for, hence suggesting that existing differences between directly married and previously cohabiting couples and, more generally, differences between married and cohabiting couples are driven, above all, by selection mechanisms.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09627-2.

Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries

The dominance of two-child families is considered an intrinsic characteristic of low fertility societies. Their share was continuously increasing among baby boom cohorts but the rise ceased afterwards. While parity- and education-specific fertility trends during the expansion of the two-child families have been studied, corresponding analyses of developments in the post-expansion birth cohorts are scarce. This study investigates the parity-specific fertility trends that ended the expansion of two-child families across educational groups. We use data on completed fertility of female cohorts born between 1936 and 1970 in 16 low-fertility countries. Besides examining trends in education- and parity-specific fertility, we provide evidence on increasing variation in family size and on the contribution of parity-specific fertility to the share of two child families among women with low, medium and high education. Our results show that the expansion of two-child families stopped as the variation in family size increased: transition rates to first and/or second birth declined whereas those to third birth increased. This polarisation process was strongest among women with low education. Apparently, as the number of women progressing to second birth declined, they became more selected and family-oriented, and thus more likely to progress to further births. The fact that the strongest polarisation of fertility was observed among the low educated reflects the group’s increasing selectivity. We demonstrate that rising polarisation of family size is a common development to most high-income low-fertility populations, especially among the low educated, regardless of substantial cross-country differences in fertility levels as well as in institutional, economic and cultural settings.

Make up or break up? Partnership transitions among young adults in England and Wales

This study investigates partnership transitions of young adults born between 1974 and 1990 in England and Wales. These cohorts were affected by the expansion of higher education, increasing gender equality, and ideational changes, but faced increased economic precarity caused by the economic and housing crisis. Given these changes, it is likely that the partnership experiences of young adults including marriage, cohabitation, separation, and repartnering have also undergone considerable changes. We apply competing risks event history analysis to combined data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to determine how birth cohort, gender, socio-economic background, and educational attainment influence partnership changes. We study the transition into and out of first cohabitation and marriage and repartnering between age 16 and 27. Cohabitation has become a universal form of first union among young adults born in the late 1970s and 1980s regardless of their socio-economic background or educational level, but their first unions do not last long. While cohabiters are equally likely to marry or separate in the oldest cohort (1974-1979), cohabiting unions are very likely to end in separation among the two youngest cohorts (1980-1984 and 1985-1990). Consequently, repartnering has become common; those in the youngest cohort repartner rather quickly suggesting that an increasing number of individuals experience multiple partnerships. Highly educated young adults have higher rates of entry into first cohabitation than their lower educated counterparts across all cohorts. However, we do not find differences in cohabitation outcomes by socio-economic background and educational level indicating that the main changes have taken place across birth cohorts. The results also suggest that there is a convergence in partnership experiences among young men and women. The increased prevalence of sliding into and out of cohabitation could indicate significant changes in the meaning young people attach to first partnerships.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

Partnership Context of First Births in Russia: The Enduring Significance of Marriage

While cohabitation and non-marital childbearing have been increasing in Russia since 1990, the share of marital first births that are conceived prior to marriage has changed very little since the Soviet era. The prior findings on the stability of trends in premarital conceptions in Russia have been contradictory and inconclusive. This study aims to extend the existing empirical evidence on premarital conceptions in Russia and to contribute to the discussion on the persistence of marriage as the preferred partnership context for parenthood. We focus on births that occurred within the first two years of marriage, and compare the childbearing patterns of Russian women who married in different historical periods. For our investigation of fertility among marital cohorts who married during the Soviet era (1960–1991), we use individual-level data from the 1994 microcensus. For our examination of fertility among more recent marital cohorts (2000, 2011, and 2016), we draw on data from birth records in civil registers. We also use relevant complementary data sources. Our findings show that there has been a marked shift in the relationship between conception and marriage in Russia. Increasingly, conceptions have been occurring before marriage, and in the most recent marital cohorts, the level of premarital first conceptions has even surpassed the level of marital first conceptions. The average interval between conception and entry into marriage has also been lengthening. We describe this unique pattern of childbearing and discuss some potential explanations for the ongoing association between marriage and childbearing in Russia.

Socio-Economic Differences in the Prevalence of Single Motherhood in North America and Europe

The study focuses on understanding the association between parental socio-economic status (SES) and the likelihood of women experiencing a first birth while single, and identifying societal factors that influence this association in 18 North American and European societies. Previous research has shown that single motherhood occurs disproportionately among those from with lower a lower parental SES. The study assesses whether this is caused by parental SES differences in the risk of single women experiencing a first conception leading to a live birth or by parental SES differences in how likely women are to enter a union during pregnancy. Additionally, an assessment is made of whether cross-national differences in these associations can be explained by a country’s access to family planning, norms regarding family formation, and economic inequality. Across countries, a negative gradient of parental SES was found on the likelihood of single women to experience a first pregnancy. The negative gradient was stronger in countries with better access to family planning. In some countries, the negative gradient of parental SES was aggravated during pregnancy because women from lower parental SES were less likely to enter a union. This was mostly found in societies with less conservative norms regarding marriage. The results suggest that certain developments in Western societies may increase socio-economic differentials in family demography.

The Social Significance of Interracial Cohabitation: Inferences Based on Fertility Behavior

Interracial couples cohabit at higher rates than same-race couples, which is attributed to lower barriers to interracial cohabitation relative to intermarriage. This begs the question of whether the significance of cohabitation differs between interracial and same-race couples. Using data from the 2006-2017 National Survey of Family Growth, we assessed the meaning of interracial cohabitation by comparing the pregnancy risk, pregnancy intentions, and union transitions following a pregnancy among women in interracial and same-race cohabitations. The pregnancy and union transition behaviors of women in White-Black cohabitations resembled those of Black women in same-race cohabitations, suggesting that White-Black cohabitation serves as a substitute to marriage and reflecting barriers to the formation of White-Black intermarriages. The behaviors of women in White-Hispanic cohabitations fell between those of their same-race counterparts or resembled those of White women in same-race cohabitations. These findings suggest that White-Hispanic cohabitations take on a meaning between trial marriage and substitute to marriage and support views that Hispanics with White partners are a more assimilated group than Hispanics in same-race unions. Results for pregnancy intentions deviated from these patterns. Women in White-Black cohabitations were less likely than Black women in same-race cohabitations to have an unintended pregnancy, suggesting that White-Black cohabitations are considered marriage-like unions involving children. Women in White-Hispanic cohabitations were more likely than White and Hispanic women in same-race cohabitations to have an unintended pregnancy, reflecting possible concerns about social discrimination. These findings indicate heterogeneity in the significance of interracial cohabitation and continuing obstacles to interracial unions.

Having a child within a cohabiting union in Europe and North America: What is the role of parents' socio-economic status?

The link between parental socio-economic status (SES) and the likelihood of having a birth in cohabitation or in marriage varies considerably across countries. Previous studies have referred to the pattern of disadvantage perspective and the second demographic transition theory to explain this cross-national variation. Yet no study has directly tested the explanatory power of both theories in this context. In the current study, hypotheses are formulated about the influence of economic inequality and norms regarding family formation on this relationship. The hypotheses are tested in 19 European and North American countries, using data of the Generations and Gender Survey and four other datasets. The analyses show that in societies that have more traditional family formation norms, women with lower parental SES are more likely to have a birth in cohabitation whereas such differences are not found in less traditional societies. The influence of economic inequality is less clear-cut.

The changing relationship between socio-economic background and family formation in four European countries

Family formation, a process that includes union formation, fertility, and their timing and order, has become increasingly diverse and complex in Europe. We examine how the relationship between socio-economic background and family formation has changed over time in France, Italy, Romania, and Sweden, using first wave Generations and Gender Survey data. Competing Trajectories Analysis, a procedure which combines event-history analysis with sequence analysis, allows us to examine family formation as a process, capturing differences in both the timing of the start of family formation and the pathways that young adults follow. Regarding timing, socio-economic background differences in France and Sweden have remained relatively small, whereas in Italy and Romania higher parental education has become more strongly associated with postponement. Pathways tend to diverge by socio-economic background, particularly in Sweden and France. These results indicate that while family formation patterns have changed, they continue to be stratified by socio-economic background.

Does union formation change attitudes towards childbearing in Bulgaria? A propensity score analysis

This paper explores how attitudes towards childbearing change after cohabitation and marriage. Entering in a union may affect attitudes towards childbearing, but at the same time individuals who are more oriented towards childbearing may be more determined to form unions. In order to disentangle the interplay between union formation and subsequent changes in attitudes towards childbearing we implement propensity score matching, which is applied to a panel data coming from a survey in Bulgaria to identify the effect of union formation on attitudes related to childbearing. This method controls for observable confounders which may affect both the probability of entering into a union and childbearing preferences, reducing selection bias. We find a positive and significant causal relationship of entering into union on attitudes towards parenthood among men, whereas the effect is weaker and often uncertain for women.

Premarital Pregnancy in China: Cohort Trends and Educational Gradients

In China, premarital sexual and reproductive behavior is seldom considered and poorly understood. Increases in premarital pregnancy are thought to not only illuminate a decoupling of marriage and sexual/reproductive behavior but also serve as a key feature of family change in East Asia. This study assesses change across cohorts in the likelihood of premarital pregnancy and the extent to which change differs by educational attainment. Drawing on the 2017 China Fertility Survey, we apply a discrete-time, competing-risk survival analysis to a nationally representative sample of 221,990 women born between 1960 and 1999. Women born in the 1980s and 1990s are more likely than those born in the 1960s and 1970s to experience a pregnancy prior to first marriage. This cohort trend is driven by increases in premarital pregnancy among women with a high school education or less. The less educated women and their college counterparts increasingly diverge in the likelihood of experiencing a premarital pregnancy. The diverging patterns of premarital pregnancy underscore the urgency to shift the focus of China's family planning programs from fertility control to reproductive health, with an emphasis on providing information and services to disadvantaged unmarried individuals.

The demographics of assisted reproductive technology births in a Nordic country

STUDY QUESTION

What are the socio-demographic characteristics of families in Norway who have children after assisted reproductive technology (ART), and have these characteristics changed over time?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Parents who conceive through ART in Norway tend to be advantaged families, and their socio-demographic profile has not changed considerably over the period 1985-2014.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

A small number of studies show that couples who conceive through ART tend to be socio-economically advantaged.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Norwegian Population Register, the Medical Birth Register and the national data bases were linked to study all live births in Norway between 1985 and 2014.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The sample consisted of 1 757 768 live births. Simple bivariate analyses were performed to describe the socio-demographic characteristics of parents who conceived through ART and changes in these characteristics over the time period 1985-2014. We used linear probability models to estimate the association between parental income and giving birth after ART from 2000 to 2014, before and after adjustment for maternal age at delivery, education and area of residence.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Parents conceiving through ART were more likely to be older, with the highest levels of income and education, and married. Their socio-demographic profiles did not change considerably during the period 1985-2014. In the unadjusted model, parents belonging to the top income quartile were 4.2 percentage points more likely (95% CI: 4.1 to 4.3) to have conceived through ART than parents who belonged to the bottom income quartile. Adjustment for maternal age only partially reduced the income disparities (for the top income quartile by 35% (β = 2.7 with 95% CI: 2.5 to 2.8)). Additional adjustment for maternal education, marital status and area of residence did not further attenuate the associations.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The data does not enable us to tell whether the lower numbers of children conceived through ART amongst more disadvantaged individuals is caused by lower success rates with ART treatment, lower demand of ART services or barriers faced in access to ART. The study focuses on Norway, a context characterised by high subsidisation of ART services.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Even though in Norway access to ART services is highly subsidised, the results highlight important and persisting social inequities in use of ART. The results also indicate that children born after ART grow up in resourceful environments, which will benefit their development and well-being.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by European Research Council agreement n. 803959 (to A.G.), by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/M001660/1 and by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262700. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Not applicable.

Mind the "Happiness" Gap: The Relationship Between Cohabitation, Marriage, and Subjective Well-being in the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Norway

Many studies have found that married people have higher subjective well-being than those who are not married. Yet the increase in cohabitation raises questions as to whether only marriage has beneficial effects. In this study, we examine differences in subjective well-being between cohabiting and married men and women in midlife, comparing the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Norway. We apply propensity score–weighted regression analyses to examine selection processes into marriage and differential treatment bias. We find no differences between cohabitation and marriage for men in the United Kingdom and Norway, and women in Germany. However, we do find significant differences for men in Australia and women in Norway. The differences disappear after we control for selection in Australia, but they unexpectedly persist for Norwegian women, disappearing only when we account for relationship satisfaction. For German men and British and Australian women, those with a lower propensity to marry would benefit from marriage. Controls eliminate differences for German men, although not for U.K. women, but relationship satisfaction reduces differences. Overall, our study indicates that especially after selection and relationship satisfaction are taken into account, differences between marriage and cohabitation disappear in all countries. Marriage does not lead to higher subjective well-being; instead, cohabitation is a symptom of economic and emotional strain.

Mechanisms of family formation: an application of Hidden Markov Models to a life course process

Life courses consist of complex patterns of correlated events and spells. The nature and strength of these correlations is known to depend on both micro- and macro- covariates. Life-course models such as event-history analysis and sequence analysis are not well equipped to deal with the processual and latent character of the decision- making process. We argue that Hidden Markov Models satisfy the requirements of a life course model. To illustrate their usefulness, this study will use Hidden Markov chains to model trajectories of family formation. We used data from the Generations and Gender Programme to estimate Hidden Markov Models. The results show the potential of this approach to unravel the mechanisms underlying life-course decision making and how these processes differ both by gender and education.

Job Quality and the Educational Gradient in Entry Into Marriage and Cohabitation

Men's and women's economic resources are important determinants of marriage timing. Prior demographic and sociological literature has often measured resources in narrow terms, considering employment and earnings and not more fine-grained measures of job quality. Yet, scholarship on work and inequality focuses squarely on declining job quality and rising precarity in employment and suggests that this transformation may matter for the life course. Addressing the disconnect between these two important areas of research, this study analyzes data on the 1980-1984 U.S. birth cohort from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to examine the relationships between men's and women's job quality and their entry into marital or cohabiting unions. We advance existing literature by moving beyond basic measures of employment and earnings and investigating how detailed measures of job quality matter for union formation. We find that men and women in less precarious jobs-both jobs with standard work schedules and those that provide fringe benefits-are more likely to marry. Further, differences in job quality explain a significant portion of the educational gradient in entry into first marriage. However, these dimensions of job quality are not predictive of cohabitation.

Monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics of urban and peri-urban land transitions using ensemble of remote sensing spectral indices-a case study of Chennai Metropolitan Area, India

Land-use/land-cover change is the most vulnerable factor in any developing urban environment. Increased infrastructure and population density tend to alter the land features which in turn will have an impact on climate change and will increase the impervious layer. Study of trends in land-use/land-cover change is required for analyzing the possible ways of managing the natural system. In this study, the spatial and temporal changes of the urban and peri-urban landscape of the Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA), Tamil Nadu, India, were analyzed using satellite images. Imageries from Landsat 5 (TM) and Landsat 8 (OLI/TIRS) sensors were taken for the years 1988, 1997, 2006, and 2017. Ensembles of remote sensing spectral indices (NDVI, MNDWI, NDBI, and NDBaI) were calculated for the land-use/land-cover classification. The confusion matrix was used for assessing the accuracy for the year 2017. The overall accuracy of the LULC classification obtained was 91.76% with the kappa coefficient of 0.84. The results show that during the period of February 1988 to February 2017, the agriculture/fallow land, barren/semi-barren, vegetation, and water bodies/wetlands have decreased by 53.62%, 1.45%, 58.99%, and 30.59%, respectively. This decrease has contributed to an increase of 173.83% in built-up area. About 26,881 ha of agriculture/fallow land, 10,482 ha of vegetation land, and 2454 ha of water bodies/wetlands were converted to built-up and other land-use over the period. This essentially meant that CMA has changed from predominantly an agricultural area (42.21%) in 1988 to built-up area (48.72%) in 2017.

Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia

In this study, we investigate through microsimulation the link between cohabiting parenthood and family instability. We identify mechanisms through which increases in cohabiting parenthood may contribute to overall increases in separation among parents, linking micro-level processes to macro-level outcomes. Analyses are based on representative surveys in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia (represented by Norway and Sweden), with full histories of women’s unions and births. We first generate parameters for the risk of first and higher-order birth and union events by woman’s birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers who separate/divorce across maternal birth cohorts (1940s to 1950s, 1950s to 1960s, 1960s to 1970s), identifying how much of the change can be attributed to shifts in union status at first birth and how much is due to change in separation rates for each union type. We find that when cohabiting births were uncommon, increases in parents’ separation were driven primarily by increases in divorce among married parents. When cohabiting parenthood became more visible, it also became a larger component, but continued increases in parents’ divorce also contributed to increasing parental separation. When cohabiting births became quite common, the higher separation rates of cohabiting parents began to play a greater role than married parents’ divorce. When most couples had their first birth in cohabitation, those having children in marriage were increasingly selected from the most stable relationships, and their decreasing divorce rates offset the fact that increasing proportions of children were born in somewhat less stable cohabiting unions.

Mind the gap: The health advantages that accompany parental marriage vary by maternal nativity

Using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), we examine whether and how the health benefits of having two biological parents in a continuous marital relationship vary by maternal nativity and ethnicity, comparing UK-born White mothers with: (1) White mothers born in wealthy countries; (2) ethnic minority mothers from South Asia; and (3) ethnic minority mothers born in Africa. Making novel use of classification and regression tree (CART) methods, we examine whether marital status is a uniform marker of economic advantage or better health-related behaviours across the four maternal nativity and ethnic groups. The findings, which indicate that the health-related advantages associated with parental marriage are not uniform across the four nativity and ethnic groups, have implications for future research on family gaps in well-being and the socio-economic determinants of health.

Union Transitions and Fertility Within First Premarital Cohabitations in Canada: Diverging Patterns by Education?

Cohabitation has become increasingly accepted and normalized as part of the family system in Canada and has become the most common way to form a first union. The changing role of cohabitation in the family system is often understood as being driven by the ideational changes associated with the second demographic transition, but increasing international evidence indicates that this explanation is incomplete. Using nationally representative retrospective data from Canadians born between 1940 and 1979 from the 2011 General Social Survey, this study examines transitions out of first premarital cohabitation and fertility within these unions as two measures of the changing role of cohabitation. Across birth cohorts, Canadians are increasingly likely to use cohabitation as an alternative to marriage and less likely to use cohabitation as a short-lived prelude to marriage. These overall trends support the second demographic transition perspective. However, this study also finds that Canadians without a bachelor's degree are far more likely to experience a birth within cohabitation and that their likelihood of transitioning to marriage has declined steeply across birth cohorts. This educational gradient in childbearing in cohabitation and the increasing educational differences in union transitions over time provide support for the diverging destinies thesis in Canada.

Salt Tolerance Improvement in Rice through Efficient SNP Marker-Assisted Selection Coupled with Speed-Breeding

Salinity critically limits rice metabolism, growth, and productivity worldwide. Improvement of the salt resistance of locally grown high-yielding cultivars is a slow process. The objective of this study was to develop a new salt-tolerant rice germplasm using speed-breeding. Here, we precisely introgressed the hst1 gene, transferring salinity tolerance from “Kaijin” into high-yielding “Yukinko-mai” (WT) rice through single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker-assisted selection. Using a biotron speed-breeding technique, we developed a BC₃F₃ population, named “YNU31-2-4”, in six generations and 17 months. High-resolution genotyping by whole-genome sequencing revealed that the BC₃F₂ genome had 93.5% similarity to the WT and fixed only 2.7% of donor parent alleles. Functional annotation of BC₃F₂ variants along with field assessment data indicated that “YNU31-2-4” plants carrying the hst1 gene had similar agronomic traits to the WT under normal growth condition. “YNU31-2-4” seedlings subjected to salt stress (125 mM NaCl) had a significantly higher survival rate and increased shoot and root biomasses than the WT. At the tissue level, quantitative and electron probe microanalyzer studies indicated that “YNU31-2-4” seedlings avoided Na⁺ accumulation in shoots under salt stress. The “YNU31-2-4” plants showed an improved phenotype with significantly higher net CO₂ assimilation and lower yield decline than WT under salt stress at the reproductive stage. “YNU31-2-4” is a potential candidate for a new rice cultivar that is highly tolerant to salt stress at the seedling and reproductive stages, and which might maintain yields under a changing global climate.

Vaccine Production in Africa: A Feasible Business Model for Capacity Building and Sustainable New Vaccine Introduction

Africa has the highest incidence of mortality caused by infectious diseases, and remarkably does not have the capacity to manufacture vaccines that are essential to reduce mortality, improving life expectancy, and promoting economic growth. GAVI has significantly helped introduction of new vaccines in Africa but its sustainability is questionable, and new vaccines introduction post-graduation is rare. Conversely, Africa with its high population and economy growth is an increasing potential market for vaccines. This study aimed to investigate how investment for vaccine production in Africa could be triggered and in which way it could be affordable to most African governments or investors. The investigation was based on a literature review and supplemented by online questionnaires directed to global vaccine stakeholders, African governments and regulatory authorities. In-depth interviews with experts in manufacturing capacity implementation and regulatory capacity building in Africa complemented the study. We also developed business plan scenarios including facility costs calculations and a possible investment plan based on expert opinions and publicly available information from pertinent sources. We saw that, governments in Africa, show interest in vaccine production establishments but only with external support for investment. The common regulatory functionality gap was the quality control laboratories to test vaccine lots before regulatory release. The global vaccine stakeholders showed less preference in investment for vaccine production establishment in Africa. The diverse political ambitions among African governments make it difficult to predict and access the market, a prerequisite for competitive production. A feasible solution could be a small production facility that would use technologies with high yield at low costs of goods to cover the regional needs. A respective antigen production facility is estimated to cost USD 25 Million, an affordable dimension for investors or interested African governments. Attractiveness for the African market is deemed to be high when targeting diseases almost exclusively for Africa (e.g., malaria or invasive non-typhoidal salmonella). With a smart 5 years tangible implementation plan, marketing agreements within existing regional collaborations and with a strong political will, an African government alone or together with an investor could convince global vaccine stakeholders and investors to support.

Union Histories of Dissolution: What Can They Say About Childlessness?

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment.

The Effect of Prenatal Stress, Proxied by Marital and Paternity Status, on the Risk of Preterm Birth

Uncertainty and insecurity in the relationship between the mother and father of a child are responsible for heightened maternal stress, which can lead to preterm birth (PTB). Different intensities of prenatal stress (proxied by four levels of marital status linked with the presence or absence of paternal data on birth records) were defined as the Marital-Father Data index. We assessed the impact of those varying intensities of prenatal stress on PTB with respect to parity among a group of Polish mothers residing in Krakow (N = 87,916). We found a pattern across the adjusted risk ratios (RR) of preterm birth that ordered these estimates in an increasing trend towards higher risk, beginning with the group of married mothers with father data present (baseline), through the groups of legitimizing marriages—married after conception with father data present (RR = 1.1; 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.0–1.2) and unmarried mothers with father data present (RR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.2–1.5) to the group of unmarried mothers with father data absent (RR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.7–2.2). The adjusted p for the linear trend between Marital-Father Data index and PTB was less than 0.001. The adjusted effect of perceived prenatal stress differed with respect to parity (confirmed by statistically significant interactions between Marital-Father Data index levels and parity), with a higher magnitude of this effect noted among multiparous versus primiparous women. Low paternal involvement and support during pregnancy may negatively affect PTB risk and this effect may differ in relation to parity status. More attention should be paid to maternal pregnancy stress, especially of multiparous mothers, to decrease the risk of unfavorable birth outcomes.

Cross-National Comparisons of Union Stability in Cohabiting and Married Families With Children

Increases in cohabitation, nonmarital childbearing, and partnership dissolution have reshaped the family landscape in most Western countries. The United States shares many features of family change common elsewhere, although it is exceptional in its high degree of union instability. In this study, we use the Harmonized Histories to provide a rich, descriptive account of union instability among couples who have had a child together in the United States and several European countries. First, we compare within-country differences between cohabiting and married parents in education, prior family experiences, and age at first birth. Second, we estimate differences in the stability of cohabiting and married parents, paying attention to transitions into marriage among those cohabiting at birth. Finally, we explore the implications of differences in parents' characteristics for union instability and the magnitude of social class differences in union instability across countries. Although similar factors are associated with union instability across countries, some (prior childbearing, early childbearing) are by far more common in the United States, accounting in part for higher shares separating. The factors associated with union instability-lower education, prior childbearing, early childbearing-also tend to be more tightly packaged in the United States than elsewhere, suggesting greater inequality in resources for children.

CONSISTENCY OF THE EFFECTS OF FEMALE EDUCATION ON FERTILITY ACROSS THE NORTH-SOUTH DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE IN NIGERIA, 2003-2013

Most studies examining the association between female education and fertility have reported an inverse association. However, little is known about the consistency of the relationship, or what level of education triggers an inverse association. This study examined the consistency of the association between female education and fertility across the north-south demographic divide in Nigeria. Data on women aged 40-49 were taken from the 2003, 2008 and 2013 Nigerian DHS data sets. The results showed that female education remained significantly and consistently inversely related to fertility in both the north and south of Nigeria. Women with secondary or higher level of education reported a lower number of children ever born (CEB) than those with primary or no education in both the north and south (p<0.05). The findings suggest that female education has a more effective negative effect on fertility in the south, where the level of female schooling is higher, than in the north, with its limited level of female education. Primary-level female education appeared to be ineffective in reducing fertility in the study sample. Women with primary schooling reported a slightly higher CEB than those who did not have any formal education. Also, age at marriage and child mortality were found to be consistent and significant predictors of fertility in both the north and south (p<0.001). Women who married at relatively higher ages and those who had never lost a child reported a smaller CEB consistently in both the north and south (p<0.001). Therefore, to attain sustainable fertility decline throughout Nigeria, it is imperative that policies aimed at increasing the prevalence and quality of female education are pursued, and there must be a focus on social, physical, environmental and cultural factors influencing age at marriage and child mortality.

Mental Well-Being Differences in Cohabitation and Marriage: The Role of Childhood Selection

Prior studies have found that marriage benefits well-being, but cohabitation may provide similar benefits. An analysis of the British Cohort Study 1970, a prospective survey following respondents to age 42, examines whether partnerships in general, and marriage in particular, influence mental well-being in midlife. Propensity score matching indicates whether childhood characteristics are a sufficient source of selection to eliminate differences in well-being between those living with and without a partner and those cohabitating and married. The results indicate that matching on childhood characteristics does not eliminate advantages to living with a partner; however, matching eliminates differences between marriage and cohabitation for men and women more likely to marry. On the other hand, marriage may provide benefits to women less likely to marry unless they have shared children and are in long-lasting partnerships. Hence, childhood selection attenuates differences between cohabitation and marriage, except for women less likely to marry.

The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960-2007: Period or Cohort Effect?

Over the past four decades, the more developed countries have experienced a marked decline in the marriage rates of both men and women. The reasons for the decline remain a debated issue. Three explanations predict that the decline in marriage is a period effect, while two predict that it is a birth cohort effect. To determine whether the decline is a period or a cohort effect, this study performed an age-period-cohort analysis. Using data from Israel, our results show that both cohort replacement and period factors were important. Until 1990-1994 the decline in marriage was a period effect, whereas after 1990-1994 the decline was a cohort effect. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for the three major explanations of the decline in marriage.