Habitat re-creation strategies for promoting adaptation of species to climate change

Riparian habitat connectivity restoration in an anthropized landscape: A multi-species approach based on landscape graph and soil bioengineering structures

In urbanized areas, rivers and riparian ecosystems are often the only ecological corridors available for wildlife movement. There, riverbanks are often stabilised by civil engineering structures (dykes, riprap). This can lead to habitat degradation and loss of landscape connectivity. Fascines (willow bundles tied together) could be an alternative to riprap, since they maintain the quality of the natural ecosystems by using native vegetal species instead of rocks, but their potential positive impact needs to be assessed. We proposed a landscape-scale decision-making method for river managers who want to restore banks by transforming riprap into fascines to improve landscape connectivity. We applied our methodology to a case study involving a 25 km-stretch of the Arve River, France. We selected four target vertebrate species based on biological traits to cover a wide range of dispersal capacities. For each species, we used landscape graphs to assess habitat connectivity under different contrasted riverbank scenarios. Scenarios included replacing all-natural banks with ripraps or replacing all ripraps with fascines. In addition, we systematically tested the effect of replacing individual 100 or 500 m sections of ripraps by fascines, to locate where riverbank restoration would maximize connectivity gain. The four species selected responded very differently to the scenarios (up to +14% and +46% change in Probability of Connectivity for common toads and Eurasian beavers, respectively, 0% for common sandpipers and barred grass snakes). The restoration of specific riverbank sections could result in important gains in PC (up to +33% for one single section for one species) but no section maximized connectivity gain for all the target species.

Movement ecology of an endangered mesopredator in a mining landscape

BACKGROUND

Efficient movement and energy expenditure are vital for animal survival. Human disturbance can alter animal movement due to changes in resource availability and threats. Some animals can exploit anthropogenic disturbances for more efficient movement, while others face restricted or inefficient movement due to fragmentation of high-resource habitats, and risks associated with disturbed habitats. Mining, a major anthropogenic disturbance, removes natural habitats, introduces new landscape features, and alters resource distribution in the landscape. This study investigates the effect of mining on the movement of an endangered mesopredator, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Using GPS collars and accelerometers, we investigate their habitat selection and energy expenditure in an active mining landscape, to determine the effects of this disturbance on northern quolls.

METHODS

We fit northern quolls with GPS collars and accelerometers during breeding and non-breeding season at an active mine site in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. We investigated broad-scale movement by calculating the movement ranges of quolls using utilisation distributions at the 95% isopleth, and compared habitat types and environmental characteristics within observed movement ranges to the available landscape. We investigated fine-scale movement by quolls with integrated step selection functions, assessing the relative selection strength for each habitat covariate. Finally, we used piecewise structural equation modelling to analyse the influence of each habitat covariate on northern quoll energy expenditure.

RESULTS

At the broad scale, northern quolls predominantly used rugged, rocky habitats, and used mining habitats in proportion to their availability. However, at the fine scale, habitat use varied between breeding and non-breeding seasons. During the breeding season, quolls notably avoided mining habitats, whereas in the non-breeding season, they frequented mining habitats equally to rocky and riparian habitats, albeit at a higher energetic cost.

CONCLUSION

Mining impacts northern quolls by fragmenting favoured rocky habitats, increasing energy expenditure, and potentially impacting breeding dispersal. While mining habitats might offer limited resource opportunities in the non-breeding season, conservation efforts during active mining, including the creation of movement corridors and progressive habitat restoration would likely be useful. However, prioritising the preservation of natural rocky and riparian habitats in mining landscapes is vital for northern quoll conservation.

Toward spatially polarized human pressure? A dynamic factor analysis of ecological stability and the role of territorial gradients in Czech Republic

In light of global change, research on ecosystem dynamics and the related environmental policies are increasingly required to face with the inherent polarization in areas with low and high human pressure. Differential levels of human pressure are hypothesized to reflect development paths toward ecological stability of local systems vis à vis socioeconomic resilience. To delineate the latent nexus between socioeconomic development paths and ecological stability of local systems, we proposed a multidimensional, diachronic analysis of 28 indicators of territorial disparities, and ecological stability in 206 homogeneous administrative units of Czech Republic over almost 30 years (1990-2018). Mixing time-invariant factors with time-varying socio-environmental attributes, a dynamic factor analysis investigated the latent relationship between ecosystem functions, environmental pressures, and the background socioeconomic characteristics of the selected spatial units. We identified four geographical gradients in Czech Republic (namely elevation, economic agglomeration, demographic structure, and soil imperviousness) at the base of territorial divides associated with the increased polarization in areas with low and high human pressure. The role of urbanization, agriculture, and loss of natural habitats reflective of rising human pressure was illustrated along the selected gradients. Finally, policy implications of the (changing) geography of ecological disturbances and local development paths in Czech Republic were briefly discussed.

Honey Production and Climate Change: Beekeepers' Perceptions, Farm Adaptation Strategies, and Information Needs

Because climate change has severely impacted global bee populations by depleting their habitats and food sources, beekeepers must implement management practices to adapt to changing climates. However, beekeepers in El Salvador lack information about necessary climate change adaptation strategies. This study explored Salvadoran beekeepers' experiences adapting to climate change. The researchers used a phenomenological case study approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with nine Salvadoran beekeepers who were members of The Cooperative Association for Marketing, Production, Savings, and Credit of Beekeepers of Chalatenango (ACCOPIDECHA). The beekeepers perceived water and food scarcity, as well as extreme weather events (e.g., increasing temperature, rain, winds), as the leading climate change-induced challenges to their production. Such challenges have augmented their honey bees' physiological need for water, limited their movement patterns, decreased apiary safety, and increased the incidence of pests and diseases, all of which have led to honey bee mortality. The beekeepers shared adaptation strategies, including box modification, apiary relocation, and food supplementation. Although most beekeepers accessed climate change information using the internet, they struggled to understand and apply pertinent information unless they received it from trusted ACCOPIDECHA personnel. Salvadoran beekeepers require information and demonstrations to improve their climate change adaptation strategies and implement new ones to address the challenges they experience.

Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes?

There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a "conductance" metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965-1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the "conductance" of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities.

Co-designing an Indicator of Habitat Connectivity for England

Landscapes have been drastically transformed by human activities, generally resulting in the loss of semi-natural habitat. In the United Kingdom, wildlife habitat mainly consists of small patches of semi-natural habitat that are poorly connected to each other. In May 2019 the United Kingdom Government published an outcome indicator framework for measuring progress against the goals and outcomes of the 25 Year Environment Plan (YEP) for England. The indicator of the Quantity, Quality and Connectivity of Habitats (D1) is one of seven indicators within the Wildlife theme and it follows the principle of making areas of semi-natural habitat “more, bigger, better and joined up.” In this study, we describe the process of co-designing the connectivity metric for indicator D1. In consultation with experts and stakeholders we selected three candidate landscape connectivity metrics to produce the indicator. The first metric comes from a suite of rules of thumb for practitioners and it is the proportion of habitat patches in the landscape that have a nearest neighbor ≤ 1 km away. The second metric is a habitat fragmentation index from the Natural England National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (NBCCVAT). The third and final metric is from the software Condatis and it represents the ability of a species to move through a landscape. We tested each metric on a set of simulated landscapes representing different levels of habitat addition strategies and different spatial configurations. We asked if the metrics are able to detect changes in the connectivity of each of these landscapes after habitat addition. Two of the three metrics (NBCCVAT and Condatis) performed well and were sensitive to change. They both increased as the total extent of habitat increased and each showed particular sensitivity to one spatial arrangement over the other. Given these results, one or both of these metrics could be used to produce the indicator. We discuss the implications of using one or both of the metrics and highlight the fundamental choices that need to be made to produce the indicator.

Habitat patches providing south-north connectivity are under-protected in a fragmented landscape

As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.

Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change

Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.

Predicting Hotspots and Prioritizing Protected Areas for Endangered Primate Species in Indonesia under Changing Climate

Simple Summary

Primates play an essential role in human life and its ecosystem. However, Indonesian primates have suffered many threats due to climate change and altered landscapes that lead to extinction. Therefore, primate conservation planning and strategies are important in maintaining their population. We quantified how extensively the protected areas overlapped primate hotspots and how it changes under mitigation and worst-case scenarios of climate change. Finally, we provide protected areas recommendations based on species richness and land-use changes under the worst-case scenario for Indonesian primate conservation planning and management options.

Abstract

Indonesia has a large number of primate diversity where a majority of the species are threatened. In addition, climate change is conservation issues that biodiversity may likely face in the future, particularly among primates. Thus, species-distribution modeling was useful for conservation planning. Herein, we present protected areas (PA) recommendations with high nature-conservation importance based on species-richness changes. We performed maximum entropy (Maxent) to retrieve species distribution of 51 primate species across Indonesia. We calculated species-richness change and range shifts to determine the priority of PA for primates under mitigation and worst-case scenarios by 2050. The results suggest that the models have an excellent performance based on seven different metrics. Current primate distributions occupied 65% of terrestrial landscape. However, our results indicate that 30 species of primates in Indonesia are likely to be extinct by 2050. Future primate species richness would be also expected to decline with the alpha diversity ranging from one to four species per 1 km². Based on our results, we recommend 54 and 27 PA in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat-restoration priority and refugia, respectively. We conclude that species-distribution modeling approach along with the categorical species richness is effectively applicable for assessing primate biodiversity patterns.

Accessing Local Tacit Knowledge as a Means of Knowledge Co-Production for Effective Wildlife Corridor Planning in the Chignecto Isthmus, Canada

Inclusive knowledge systems that engage local perspectives and social and natural sciences are difficult to generate and infuse into decision-making processes but are critical for conservation planning. This paper explores local tacit knowledge application to identify wildlife locations, movement patterns and heightened opportunities and barriers for connectivity conservation planning in a critical linkage area known as the Chignecto Isthmus in the eastern Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Thirty-four local hunters, loggers, farmers and others with strong tacit knowledge of wildlife and the land participated in individual interviews and group workshops, both of which engaged participatory mapping. Individuals’ data were digitised, analysed and compiled into thematic series of maps, which were refined through participatory, consensus-based workshops. Locations of key populations and movement patterns for several species were delineated, predominantly for terrestrial mammals and migratory birds. When comparing local tacit-knowledge-based maps with those derived from formal-natural-science models, key differences and strong overlap were apparent. Local participants provided rich explanatory and complementary data. Their engagement in the process fostered knowledge transfer within the group and increased confidence in their experiential knowledge and its value for decision making. Benefits derived from our study for conservation planning in the region include enhanced spatial data on key locations of wildlife populations and movement pathways and local insights into wildlife changes over time. Identified contributing factors primarily relate to habitat degradation and fragmentation from human activities (i.e., land use and cover changes caused by roads and forestry practices), thereby supporting the need for conservation measures. The generated knowledge is important for consideration in local planning initiatives; it addresses gaps in existing formal-science data and validates or ground truths the outputs of existing computer-based models of wildlife habitat and movement pathways within the context of the complex social-ecological systems of the place and local people. Critically, awareness of the need for conservation and the value of the participants’ shared knowledge has been enhanced, with potential influence in fostering local engagement in wildlife conservation and other planning initiatives. Consistent with other studies, engagement of local people and their tacit knowledge was found to (i) provide important insights, knowledge translation, and dissemination to complement formal, natural science, (ii) help build a more inclusive knowledge system grounded in the people and place, and (iii) lend support to conservation action for connectivity planning and human-wildlife co-existence. More broadly, our methods demonstrate an effective approach for representing differences and consensus among participants’ spatial indications of wildlife and habitat as a means of co-producing knowledge in participatory mapping for conservation planning.

Quantifying resistance and resilience to local extinction for conservation prioritization

Species-focused conservation planning is often based on reducing local extinction risk at key sites. However, with increasing levels of habitat fragmentation and pressures from climate change and overexploitation, surrounding landscapes also influence the persistence of species populations, and their effects are increasingly incorporated in conservation planning and management for both species and communities. Here, we present a framework based on metapopulation dynamics in fragmented landscapes, for quantifying the survival (resistance) and reestablishment of species populations following localized extinction events (resilience). We explore the application of this framework to guide the conservation of a group of threatened bird species endemic to papyrus (Cyperus papyrus) swamps in East and Central Africa. Using occupancy data for five species collected over two years from a network of wetlands in Uganda, we determine the local and landscape factors that influence local extinction and colonization, and map expected rates of population turnover across the network to draw inferences about the locations that contribute most to regional resistance and resilience for all species combined. Slight variation in the factors driving extinction and colonization between individual papyrus birds led to species-specific differences in the spatial patterns of site-level resistance and resilience. However, despite this, locations with the highest resistance and/or resilience overlapped for most species and reveal where resources could be invested for multispecies persistence. This novel simplified framework can aid decision making associated with conservation planning and prioritization for multiple species residing in overlapping, fragmented habitats; helping to identify key sites that warrant urgent conservation protection, with consideration of the need to adapt and respond to future change.

Testing the benefits of conservation set-asides for improved habitat connectivity in tropical agricultural landscapes

Habitat connectivity is important for tropical biodiversity conservation. Expansion of commodity crops, such as oil palm, fragments natural habitat areas, and strategies are needed to improve habitat connectivity in agricultural landscapes. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) voluntary certification system requires that growers identify and conserve forest patches identified as High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) before oil palm plantations can be certified as sustainable. We assessed the potential benefits of these conservation set-asides for forest connectivity.We mapped HCVAs and quantified their forest cover in 2015. To assess their contribution to forest connectivity, we modelled range expansion of forest-dependent populations with five dispersal abilities spanning those representative of poor dispersers (e.g. flightless insects) to more mobile species (e.g. large birds or bats) across 70 plantation landscapes in Borneo.Because only 21% of HCVA area was forested in 2015, these conservation set-asides currently provide few connectivity benefits. Compared to a scenario where HCVAs contain no forest (i.e. a no-RSPO scenario), current HCVAs improved connectivity by ~3% across all dispersal abilities. However, if HCVAs were fully reforested, then overall landscape connectivity could improve by ~16%. Reforestation of HCVAs had the greatest benefit for poor to intermediate dispersers (0.5-3 km per generation), generating landscapes that were up to 2.7 times better connected than landscapes without HCVAs. By contrast, connectivity benefits of HCVAs were low for highly mobile populations under current and reforestation scenarios, because range expansion of these populations was generally successful regardless of the amount of forest cover. Synthesis and applications. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) requires that High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) be set aside to conserve biodiversity, but HCVAs currently provide few connectivity benefits because they contain relatively little forest. However, reforested HCVAs have the potential to improve landscape connectivity for some forest species (e.g. winged insects), and we recommend active management by plantation companies to improve forest quality of degraded HCVAs (e.g. by enrichment planting). Future revisions to the RSPO's Principles and Criteria should also ensure that large (i.e. with a core area >2 km2) HCVAs are reconnected to continuous tracts of forest to maximize their connectivity benefits.

Faster movement in nonhabitat matrix promotes range shifts in heterogeneous landscapes

Ecologists often assume that range expansion will be fastest in landscapes composed entirely of the highest-quality habitat. Theoretical models, however, show that range expansion depends on both habitat quality and habitat-specific movement rates. Using data from 78 species in 70 studies, we find that animals typically have faster movement through lower-quality environments (73% of published cases). Therefore, if we want to manage landscapes for range expansion, there is a trade-off between promoting movement with nonhostile matrix, and promoting population growth with high-quality habitat. We illustrate how this trade-off plays out with the use of an exemplar species, the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly. For this species, we calculate that the expected rate of range expansion is fastest in landscapes with ~15% high-quality habitat. Behavioral responses to nonhabitat matrix have often been documented in animal populations, but rarely included in empirical predictions of range expansion. Considering movement behavior could change land-planning priorities from focus on high-quality habitat only to integrating high- and low-quality land cover types, and evaluating the costs and benefits of different matrix land covers for range expansion.

Using climate envelope models to identify potential ecological trajectories on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Managers need information about the vulnerability of historical plant communities, and their potential future conditions, to respond appropriately to landscape change driven by global climate change. We model the climate envelopes of plant communities on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska and forecast to 2020, 2050, and 2080. We assess 6 model outputs representing downscaled climate data from 3 global climate model outputs and 2 representative concentration pathways. We use two lines of evidence, model convergence and empirically measured rates of change, to identify the following plausible ecological trajectories for the peninsula: (1.) alpine tundra and sub-alpine shrub decrease, (2.) perennial snow and ice decrease, (3.) forests remain on the Kenai Lowlands, (4.) the contiguous white-Lutz-Sitka spruce complex declines, and (5.) mixed conifer afforestation occurs along the Gulf of Alaska coast. We suggest that converging models in the context of other lines of evidence is a viable approach to increase certainty for adaptation planning. Extremely dynamic areas with multiple outcomes (i.e., disagreement) among models represent ecological risk, but may also represent opportunities for facilitated adaptation and other managerial approaches to help tip the balance one way or another. By reducing uncertainty, this eclectic approach can be used to inform expectations about the future.

Host plant density and patch isolation drive occupancy and abundance at a butterfly's northern range margin

Marginal populations are usually small, fragmented, and vulnerable to extinction, which makes them particularly interesting from a conservation point of view. They are also the starting point of range shifts that result from climate change, through a process involving colonization of newly suitable sites at the cool margin of species distributions. Hence, understanding the processes that drive demography and distribution at high-latitude populations is essential to forecast the response of species to global changes. We investigated the relative importance of solar irradiance (as a proxy for microclimate), habitat quality, and connectivity on occupancy, abundance, and population stability at the northern range margin of the Oberthür's grizzled skipper butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus. For this purpose, butterfly abundance was surveyed in a habitat network consisting of 50 habitat patches over 12 years. We found that occupancy and abundance (average and variability) were mostly influenced by the density of host plants and the spatial isolation of patches, while solar irradiance and grazing frequency had only an effect on patch occupancy. Knowing that the distribution of host plants extends further north, we hypothesize that the actual variable limiting the northern distribution of P. armoricanus might be its dispersal capacity that prevents it from reaching more northern habitat patches. The persistence of this metapopulation in the face of global changes will thus be fundamentally linked to the maintenance of an efficient network of habitats.

Old concepts, new challenges: adapting landscape-scale conservation to the twenty-first century

Landscape-scale approaches to conservation stem largely from the classic ideas of reserve design: encouraging bigger and more sites, enhancing connectivity among sites, and improving habitat quality. Trade-offs are imposed between these four strategies by the limited resources and opportunities available for conservation programmes, including the establishment and management of protected areas, and wildlife-friendly farming and forestry. Although debate regarding trade-offs between the size, number, connectivity and quality of protected areas was prevalent in the 1970-1990s, the implications of the same trade-offs for ongoing conservation responses to threats from accelerating environmental change have rarely been addressed. Here, we reassess the implications of reserve design theory for landscape-scale conservation, and present a blueprint to help practitioners to prioritise among the four strategies. We consider the new perspectives placed on landscape-scale conservation programmes by twenty-first century pressures including climate change, invasive species and the need to marry food security with biodiversity conservation. A framework of the situations under which available theory and evidence recommend that each of the four strategies be prioritized is provided, seeking to increase the clarity required for urgent conservation decision-making.

Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

Climate change adaptation: putting principles into practice

Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years.Significant predicted [corrected] long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

AIM

Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework.

LOCATION

Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities.

RESULTS

In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities.

Which host-dependent insects are most prone to coextinction under changed climates?

Coextinction (loss of dependent species with their host or partner species) presents a threat to untold numbers of organisms. Climate change may act synergistically to accelerate rates of coextinction. In this review, we present the first synthesis of the available literature and propose a novel schematic diagram that can be used when assessing the potential risk climate change represents for dependent species. We highlight traits that may increase the susceptibility of insect species to coextinction induced by climate change, suggest the most influential host characteristics, and identify regions where climate change may have the greatest impact on dependent species. The aim of this review was to provide a platform for future research, directing efforts toward taxa and habitats at greatest risk of species loss through coextinction accelerated by climate change.