Evolution of phenotypic plasticity and environmental tolerance of a labile quantitative character in a fluctuating environment

Predators drive selection for adaptive plasticity in prey defense behavior

Plasticity to reduce activity is a common way prey evade predators. However, by reducing activity prey often experience lower individual growth rates because they encounter their own prey less often. To overcome this cost, natural selection should not simply favor individuals generating stronger plasticity to reduce activity rates but also selection to resume activity once the threat of predation subsides. If such plasticity is adaptive, it should vary under environmental conditions that generate stronger selection for greater plasticity, such as predator density. Using a mesocosm experiment and observational study with a damselfly-prey/fish-predator system, we show that fish predation exerts selection for greater plasticity in activity rates of damselflies. Such selection allows damselfly activity levels to initially decrease and then rebound when the threat of predation dissipates, potentially helping to ameliorate a hypothesized growth penalty from activity reductions. We also find that the extent of plasticity in activity to the threat of fish predation increases, albeit slightly (r2 = 0.04%-0.063%), as fish densities increase across natural lakes, consistent with the idea that the magnitude of plasticity is shaped by environmental conditions underlying selection. Collectively, these results demonstrate how selection acts to drive adaptive plasticity in a common predator avoidance strategy.

Exposure to sub-optimal temperature during early development decreases hypoxia tolerance in juvenile Fundulus heteroclitus

Cross-protection occurs when exposure to one stressor confers heightened tolerance against a different stressor. Alternatively, exposure to one stressor could result in reduced tolerance against other stressors. Although cross-protection has been documented in a wide range of taxa at juvenile and adult life stages, whether early developmental exposure to a stressor confers cross-protection or reduced tolerance to other stressors later in life through developmental plasticity remains largely unexplored. In this study, we examined whether altered temperature during embryonic development results in developmental plasticity in upper thermal tolerance or hypoxia tolerance using a small topminnow, Fundulus heteroclitus, and examined potential underlying molecular mechanisms. We incubated embryos at one of two ecologically relevant temperatures (20°C or 26°C) until hatch. Once hatched, fish were raised at a common temperature of 20°C for 1 year, and tolerance was assessed in both juveniles (6 months) and early adults (1 year). Developmental temperature had no significant effect on thermal tolerance (CTmax) in juvenile fish, or on the transcript abundance of thermal tolerance-related genes (constitutive heat shock proteins, hsc70, hsp90b). In contrast, reduced developmental temperature decreased hypoxia tolerance but increased transcript levels of the hypoxia inducible factor hif1α in juvenile fish but the effects were less evident in older fish. Overall, we found no indication of developmental plasticity for thermal tolerance, but there was evidence of negative impacts of lower developmental temperature on hypoxia tolerance in juveniles associated with changes in gene expression, providing evidence of developmental plasticity across stressors and levels of organization.

Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment

A key issue in predicting how ecosystems will respond to environmental change is understanding why populations and communities are able to live and reproduce in some parts of ecological and geographical space, but not in others. The limits to adaptation that cause ecological niches to vary in position and width across taxa and environmental contexts determine how communities and ecosystems emerge from selection on phenotypes and genomes. Ecological trade-offs mean that phenotypes can only be optimal in some environments unless these trade-offs can be reshaped through evolution. However, the amount and rate of evolution are limited by genetic architectures, developmental systems (including phenotypic plasticity) and the legacies of recent evolutionary history. Here, we summarize adaptive limits and their ecological consequences in time (evolutionary rescue) and space (species' range limits), relating theoretical predictions to empirical tests. We then highlight key avenues for future research in this area, from better connections between evolution and demography to analysing the genomic architecture of adaptation, the dynamics of plasticity and interactions between the biotic and abiotic environment. Progress on these questions will help us understand when and where evolution and phenotypic plasticity will allow species and communities to persist in the face of rapid environmental change.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

A review of the empirical evidence for costs of plasticity in ectothermic animals

Phenotypic plasticity can represent a vital adaptive response to environmental stressors, including those associated with climate change. Despite its evolutionary advantages, the expression of plasticity varies significantly within and among species, and is likely to be influenced by local environmental conditions. This variability in plasticity has important implications for evolutionary biology and conservation physiology. Theoretical models suggest that plasticity might incur intrinsic fitness costs, although the empirical evidence is inconsistent and there is ambiguity in the term 'cost of plasticity'. Here, we systematically review the literature to investigate the prevalence of costs associated with phenotypic plasticity in ectothermic animals. We categorized studies into those assessing 'costs of phenotype' (trade-offs between different plastic trait values) and 'costs of plasticity' (intrinsic costs of the capacity for plasticity). Importantly, the experimental designs required to detect costs of plasticity are inherently more complex and onerous than those required to detect costs of phenotype. Accordingly, our findings reveal a significant focus on costs of phenotype over costs of plasticity, with the former more frequently detecting costs. Contrary to theoretical expectations, our analysis suggests that costs of plasticity are neither universal nor widespread. This raises questions about the evolutionary dynamics of plasticity, particularly in stable environments. Our analysis underscores the need for precise terminology and methodology in researching costs of plasticity, to avoid conflating costs associated with plastic traits with costs more intrinsic to plasticity. Understanding these nuances is crucial for predicting how species might adapt to rapidly changing environments.

High Capacity for Physiological Plasticity Occurs at a Slow Rate in Ectotherms

Phenotypic plasticity enables organisms to express a phenotype that is optimal in their current environment. The ability of organisms to obtain the optimum phenotype is determined by their (i) capacity for plasticity, which facilitates phenotypic adjustment corresponding to the amplitude of environmental change but also their (ii) rate of plasticity, because this determines if the expressed phenotype lags behind changes in the optimum. How the rate of- and capacity for plasticity have co-evolved will thus be critical for the resilience of organisms under different patterns of environmental change. To evaluate the direction of the evolved relationship between plasticity rate and capacity, we reanalysed experiments documenting the time course of thermal tolerance acclimation to temperature change across species of ectothermic animals. We found that the rate and capacity with which thermal tolerance responds plastically to temperature change are negatively correlated, a pattern inconsistent with current theory regarding the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.

Data-driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well-studied major crops. Using 727 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre- and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid-season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well-studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Early-life variation in migration is subject to strong fluctuating survival selection in a partially migratory bird

Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort's first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.

Evolution of pH-sensitive transcription termination in Escherichia coli during adaptation to repeated long-term starvation

Fluctuating environments that consist of regular cycles of co-occurring stress are a common challenge faced by cellular populations. For a population to thrive in constantly changing conditions, an ability to coordinate a rapid cellular response is essential. Here, we identify a mutation conferring an arginine-to-histidine (Arg to His) substitution in the transcription terminator Rho. The rho R109H mutation frequently arose in Escherichia coli populations experimentally evolved under repeated long-term starvation conditions, during which the accumulation of metabolic waste followed by transfer into fresh media results in drastic environmental pH fluctuations associated with feast and famine. Metagenomic sequencing revealed that populations containing the rho mutation also possess putative loss-of-function mutations in ydcI, which encodes a recently characterized transcription factor associated with pH homeostasis. Genetic reconstructions of these mutations show that the rho allele confers plasticity via an alkaline-induced reduction of Rho function that, when found in tandem with a ΔydcI allele, leads to intracellular alkalization and genetic assimilation of Rho mutant function. We further identify Arg to His substitutions at analogous sites in rho alleles from species that regularly experience neutral to alkaline pH fluctuations in their environments. Our results suggest that Arg to His substitutions in Rho may serve to rapidly coordinate complex physiological responses through pH sensing and shed light on how cellular populations use environmental cues to coordinate rapid responses to complex, fluctuating environments.

Emergence of phenotypic plasticity through epigenetic mechanisms

Plasticity is found in all domains of life and is particularly relevant when populations experience variable environmental conditions. Traditionally, evolutionary models of plasticity are non-mechanistic: they typically view reactions norms as the target of selection, without considering the underlying genetics explicitly. Consequently, there have been difficulties in understanding the emergence of plasticity, and in explaining its limits and costs. In this paper, we offer a novel mechanistic approximation for the emergence and evolution of plasticity. We simulate random "epigenetic mutations" in the genotype-phenotype mapping, of the kind enabled by DNA-methylations/demethylations. The frequency of epigenetic mutations at loci affecting the phenotype is sensitive to organism stress (trait-environment mismatch), but is also genetically determined and evolvable. Thus, the "random motion" of epigenetic markers enables developmental learning-like behaviors that can improve adaptation within the limits imposed by the genotypes. However, with random motion being "goal-less," this mechanism is also vulnerable to developmental noise leading to maladaptation. Our individual-based simulations show that epigenetic mutations can hide alleles that are temporarily unfavorable, thus enabling cryptic genetic variation. These alleles can be advantageous at later times, under regimes of environmental change, in spite of the accumulation of genetic loads. Simulations also demonstrate that plasticity is favored by natural selection in constant environments, but more under periodic environmental change. Plasticity also evolves under directional environmental change as long as the pace of change is not too fast and costs are low.

The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities

Suitable conditions for species to survive and reproduce constitute their ecological niche, which is built by abiotic conditions and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics. Organisms should ideally assess and use information about all these environmental dimensions to adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their own internal conditions. Dispersal plasticity is often considered through its dependence on abiotic conditions or conspecific density and, to a lesser extent, with reference to the effects of interactions with heterospecifics, potentially leading to misinterpretation of dispersal drivers. Here, we first review the evidence for the effects of and the potential interplays between abiotic factors, biotic interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics and phenotype on dispersal decisions. We then present an experimental test of these potential interplays, investigating the effects of density and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics on temperature-dependent dispersal in microcosms of Tetrahymena ciliates. We found significant differences in dispersal rates depending on the temperature, density and presence of another strain or species. However, the presence and density of conspecifics and heterospecifics had no effects on the thermal-dependency of dispersal. We discuss the causes and consequences of the (lack of) interplay between the different environmental dimensions and the phenotype for metacommunity assembly and dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

The effects of humidity on thermoregulatory physiology of a small songbird

Scholander-Irving curves describe the relationship between ambient temperature and metabolic rate and are fundamental to understanding the energetic demands of homeothermy. However, Scholander-Irving curves are typically measured in dry air, which is not representative of the humidity many organisms experience in nature. Consequently, it is unclear (1) whether Scholander-Irving curves (especially below thermoneutrality) are altered by humidity, given the effects of humidity on thermal properties of air, and (2) whether physiological responses associated with Scholander-Irving curves in the lab reflect organismal performance in humid field conditions. We used laboratory experiments and biophysical models to test the effects of humidity on the thermoregulatory physiology of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor). We also tested whether physiological responses measured under lab conditions were correlated with field body temperatures and nestling provisioning rates. We found that humidity reduced rates of evaporative water loss but did not have large effects on body temperature or metabolic rate, suggesting that swallows can decouple evaporative cooling, body temperature and metabolic rate. Although the effect of humidity on metabolic rate in the lab was small, our biophysical models indicated that energetic costs of thermoregulation were ∼8% greater in simulations that used metabolic rates from birds in humid compared with dry conditions. Finally, we found mixed evidence that physiological responses measured in the lab under humid or dry conditions were associated with body temperature and nest provisioning rates in the field. Our results help clarify the effect of humidity on endotherm thermoregulation, which may help forecast organismal responses to environmental change.

How interacting anthropogenic pressures alter the plasticity of breeding time in two common songbirds

Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as forest degradation, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example, due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on a two-decade, country-level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds' reproduction, we investigated how habitat anthropization, here characterized by the rural-urban and forest-farmland gradients, affected the average phenology and plasticity to local temperature in two common species, the great tit Parus major and the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. We built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/°C, great tit: 3.83 days/°C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/°C, great tit: 2.75 days/°C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The slope of the reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by habitat anthropization only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes and slightly steeper in more urban areas. Habitat anthropization did not explain variation in the slope of the reaction norm in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), for which mean fledgling phenology and plasticity were correlated (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on phenological reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations' persistence, to an extent depending on species and on the changes in their prey phenology and abundance.

Phenotypic plasticity and the effects of thermal fluctuations on specialists and generalists

Classical theories predict that relatively constant environments should generally favour specialists, while fluctuating environments should be selected for generalists. However, theoretical and empirical results have pointed out that generalist organisms might, on the contrary, perform poorly under fluctuations. In particular, if generalism is underlaid by phenotypic plasticity, performance of generalists should be modulated by the temporal characteristics of environmental fluctuations. Here, we used experiments in microcosms of Tetrahymena thermophila ciliates and a mathematical model to test whether the period or autocorrelation of thermal fluctuations mediate links between the level of generalism and the performance of organisms under fluctuations. In the experiment, thermal fluctuations consistently impeded performance compared with constant conditions. However, the intensity of this effect depended on the level of generalism: while the more specialist strains performed better under fast or negatively autocorrelated fluctuations, plastic generalists performed better under slow or positively autocorrelated fluctuations. Our model suggests that these effects of fluctuations on organisms' performance may result from a time delay in the expression of plasticity, restricting its benefits to slow enough fluctuations. This study points out the need to further investigate the temporal dynamics of phenotypic plasticity to better predict its fitness consequences under environmental fluctuations.

The expected sample allele frequencies from populations of changing size via orthogonal polynomials

In this article, discrete and stochastic changes in (effective) population size are incorporated into the spectral representation of a biallelic diffusion process for drift and small mutation rates. A forward algorithm inspired by Hidden-Markov-Model (HMM) literature is used to compute exact sample allele frequency spectra for three demographic scenarios: single changes in (effective) population size, boom-bust dynamics, and stochastic fluctuations in (effective) population size. An approach for fully agnostic demographic inference from these sample allele spectra is explored, and sufficient statistics for stepwise changes in population size are found. Further, convergence behaviours of the polymorphic sample spectra for population size changes on different time scales are examined and discussed within the context of inference of the effective population size. Joint visual assessment of the sample spectra and the temporal coefficients of the spectral decomposition of the forward diffusion process is found to be important in determining departure from equilibrium. Stochastic changes in (effective) population size are shown to shape sample spectra particularly strongly.

Evolution of pH-sensitive transcription termination during adaptation to repeated long-term starvation

Fluctuating environments that consist of regular cycles of co-occurring stress are a common challenge faced by cellular populations. For a population to thrive in constantly changing conditions, an ability to coordinate a rapid cellular response is essential. Here, we identify a mutation conferring an arginine-to-histidine (Arg to His) substitution in the transcription terminator Rho. The rho R109H mutation frequently arose in E. coli populations experimentally evolved under repeated long-term starvation conditions, during which feast and famine result in drastic environmental pH fluctuations. Metagenomic sequencing revealed that populations containing the rho mutation also possess putative loss-of-function mutations in ydcI, which encodes a recently characterized transcription factor associated with pH homeostasis. Genetic reconstructions of these mutations show that the rho allele confers a plastic alkaline-induced reduction of Rho function that, when found in tandem with a ΔydcI allele, leads to intracellular alkalinization and genetic assimilation of Rho mutant function. We further identify Arg to His substitutions at analogous sites in rho alleles from species originating from fluctuating alkaline environments. Our results suggest that Arg to His substitutions in global regulators of gene expression can serve to rapidly coordinate complex responses through pH sensing and shed light on how cellular populations across the tree of life use environmental cues to coordinate rapid responses to complex, fluctuating environments.

Comparative analysis of molecular and morphological diversity in two diploid Paspalum species (Poaceae) with contrasting mating systems

KEY MESSAGE

Interspecific comparison of two Paspalum species has demonstrated that mating systems (selfing and outcrossing) contribute to variation (genetically and morphologically) within species through similar but mutually exclusive processes. Mating systems play a key role in the genetic dynamics of populations. Studies show that populations of selfing plants have less genetic diversity than outcrossing plants. Yet, many such studies have ignored morphological diversity. Here, we compared the morphological and molecular diversity patterns in populations of two phylogenetically-related sexual diploids that differ in their mating system: self-sterile Paspalum indecorum and self-fertile P. pumilum. We assessed the morphological variation using 16 morpho-phenological characters and the molecular diversity using three combinations of AFLPs. We compared the morphological and molecular diversity within and among populations in each mating system. Contrary to expectations, selfers showed higher morphological variation within populations, mainly in vegetative and phenological traits, compared to outcrossers. The high morphological variation within populations of selfers led to a low differentiation among populations. At molecular level, selfing populations showed lower levels of genotypic and genetic diversity than outcrossing populations. As expected, selfers showed higher population structure than outcrossers (PhiST = 0.301 and PhiST = 0.108, respectively). Increased homozygous combinations for the same trait/locus enhance morphological variation and reduce molecular variation within populations in selfing P. pumilum. Thus, selfing outcomes are opposite when comparing morphological and molecular variation in P. pumilum. Meanwhile, pollen flow in obligate outcrossing populations of P. indecorum increases within-population molecular variation, but tends to homogenize phenotypes within-population. Pollen flow in obligate outcrossers tends to merge geographically closer populations; but isolation by distance can lead to a weak differentiation among distant populations of P. indecorum.

Beyond reaction norms: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity can allow organisms to cope with environmental changes. Although reaction norms are commonly used to quantify plasticity along gradients of environmental conditions, they often miss the temporal dynamics of phenotypic change, especially the speed at which it occurs. Here, we argue that studying the rate of phenotypic plasticity is a crucial step to quantify and understand its adaptiveness. Iteratively measuring plastic traits allows us to describe the actual dynamics of phenotypic changes and avoid quantifying reaction norms at times that do not truly reflect the organism's capacity for plasticity. Integrating the temporal component in how we describe, quantify, and conceptualise phenotypic plasticity can change our understanding of its diversity, evolution, and consequences.

Sexual conflict, heterochrony and tissue specificity as evolutionary problems of adaptive plasticity in development

Differential gene expression represents a fundamental cause and manifestation of phenotypic plasticity. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in gene expression as a trait evolves when alleles that mediate gene regulation serve to increase organismal fitness by improving the alignment of variation in gene expression with variation in circumstances. Among the diverse circumstances that a gene encounters are distinct cell types, developmental stages and sexes, as well as an organism's extrinsic ecological environments. Consequently, adaptive phenotypic plasticity provides a common framework to consider diverse evolutionary problems by considering the shared implications of alleles that produce context-dependent gene expression. From this perspective, adaptive plasticity represents an evolutionary resolution to conflicts of interest that arise from any negatively pleiotropic effects of expression of a gene across ontogeny, among tissues, between the sexes, or across extrinsic environments. This view highlights shared properties within the general relation of fitness, trait expression and context that may nonetheless differ substantively in the grain of selection within and among generations to influence the likelihood of adaptive plasticity as an evolutionary response. Research programmes that historically have focused on these separate issues may use the insights from one another by recognizing their shared dependence on context-dependent gene regulatory evolution.

Early onset of urea synthesis and ammonia detoxification pathways in three terrestrially developing frogs

Frogs evolved terrestrial development multiple times, necessitating mechanisms to avoid ammonia toxicity at early stages. Urea synthesis from ammonia is a key adaptation that reduces water dependence after metamorphosis. We tested for early expression and plasticity of enzymatic mechanisms of ammonia detoxification in three terrestrial-breeding frogs: foam-nest-dwelling larvae of Leptodactylus fragilis (Lf) and arboreal embryos of Hyalinobatrachium fleischmanni (Hf) and Agalychnis callidryas (Ac). Activity of two ornithine-urea cycle (OUC) enzymes, arginase and CPSase, and levels of their products urea and CP in tissues were high in Lf regardless of nest hydration, but reduced in experimental low- vs. high-ammonia environments. High OUC activity in wet and dry nests, comparable to that under experimental high ammonia, suggests terrestrial Lf larvae maintain high capacity for urea excretion regardless of their immediate risk of ammonia toxicity. This may aid survival through unpredictably long waiting periods before rain enables their transition to water. Moderate levels of urea and CP were present in Hf and Ac tissues and enzymatic activities were lower than in Lf. In both species, embryos in drying clutches can hatch and enter the water early, behaviorally avoiding ammonia toxicity. Moreover, glutamine synthetase was active in early stages of all three species, condensing ammonia and glutamate to glutamine as another mechanism of detoxification. Enzyme activity appeared highest in Lf, although substrate and product levels were higher in Ac and Lf. Our results reveal that multiple biochemical mechanisms of ammonia detoxification occur in early life stages of anuran lineages that evolved terrestrial development.

Population Rescue through an Increase in the Selfing Rate under Pollen Limitation: Plasticity versus Evolution

AbstractIncreased rates of self-fertilization offer reproductive assurance when plant populations experience pollen limitation, but self-fertilization may reduce fitness by exposing deleterious mutations. If an environmental change responsible for pollen limitation also induces plastic mating system shifts toward self-pollination, the reproductive assurance benefit and inbreeding depression cost of increased self-fertilization occur immediately, while the benefit and cost happen more gradually when increased self-fertilization occur through evolution. I built eco-evolutionary models to explore the demographic and genetic conditions in which higher self-fertilization by plasticity and/or evolution rescues populations, following deficits due to a sudden onset of pollen limitation. Rescue is most likely under an intermediate level of selfing rate increase, either through plasticity or evolution, and this critical level of selfing rate increase is higher under stronger pollen limitation. Generally, rescue is more likely through plasticity than through evolution. Under weak pollen limitation, rescue by enhanced self-fertilization may mainly occur through purging of deleterious mutations rather than reproductive assurance. The selfing rate increase conferring the highest rescue probability is lower when the initial population size is smaller. This article shows the importance of plasticity during plant population rescue and offers insights for future studies of the evolution of mating system plasticity.

Bet-hedging via dispersal aids the evolution of plastic responses to unreliable cues

Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome.

Climate adaptation and vulnerability of foundation species in a global change hotspot

Climate change is altering species ranges, and relative abundances within ranges, as populations become differentially adapted and vulnerable to the climates they face. Understanding present species ranges, whether species harbour and exchange adaptive variants, and how variants are distributed across landscapes undergoing rapid change, is therefore crucial to predicting responses to future climates and informing conservation strategies. Such insights are nonetheless lacking for most species of conservation concern. We assess genomic patterns of neutral variation, climate adaptation and climate vulnerability (offsets in predicted distributions of putatively adaptive variants across present and future landscapes) for sister foundation species, the marine tubeworms Galeolaria caespitosa and Galeolaria gemineoa, in a sentinel region for climate change impacts. We find that species are genetically isolated despite uncovering sympatry in their ranges, show parallel and nonparallel signals of thermal adaptation on spatial scales smaller than gene flow across their ranges, and are predicted to face different risks of maladaptation under future temperatures across their ranges. Our findings have implications for understanding local adaptation in the face of gene flow, and generate spatially explicit predictions for climatic disruption of adaptation and species distributions in coastal ecosystems that could guide experimental validation and conservation planning.

Divergence in rates of phenotypic plasticity among ectotherms

An individual's fitness cost associated with environmental change likely depends on the rate of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and yet our understanding of plasticity rates in an ecological and evolutionary context remains limited. We provide the first quantitative synthesis of existing plasticity rate data, focusing on acclimation of temperature tolerance in ectothermic animals, where we demonstrate applicability of a recently proposed analytical approach. The analyses reveal considerable variation in plasticity rates of this trait among species, with half-times (how long it takes for the initial deviation from the acclimated phenotype to be reduced by 50% when individuals are shifted to a new environment) ranging from 3.7 to 770.2 h. Furthermore, rates differ among higher taxa, being higher for amphibians and reptiles than for crustaceans and fishes, and with insects being intermediate. We argue that a more comprehensive understanding of phenotypic plasticity will be attained through increased focus on the rate parameter.

Modeling the metabolic evolution of mixotrophic phytoplankton in response to rising ocean surface temperatures

Background

Climate change is expected to lead to warming in ocean surface temperatures which will have unequal effects on the rates of photosynthesis and heterotrophy. As a result of this changing metabolic landscape, directional phenotypic evolution will occur, with implications that cascade up to the ecosystem level. While mixotrophic phytoplankton, organisms that combine photosynthesis and heterotrophy to meet their energetic and nutritional needs, are expected to become more heterotrophic with warmer temperatures due to heterotrophy increasing at a faster rate than photosynthesis, it is unclear how evolution will influence how these organisms respond to warmer temperatures. In this study, we used adaptive dynamics to model the consequences of temperature-mediated increases in metabolic rates for the evolution of mixotrophic phytoplankton, focusing specifically on phagotrophic mixotrophs.

Results

We find that mixotrophs tend to evolve to become more reliant on phagotrophy as temperatures rise, leading to reduced prey abundance through higher grazing rates. However, if prey abundance becomes too low, evolution favors greater reliance on photosynthesis. These responses depend upon the trade-off that mixotrophs experience between investing in photosynthesis and phagotrophy. Mixotrophs with a convex trade-off maintain mixotrophy over the greatest range of temperatures; evolution in these “generalist” mixotrophs was found to exacerbate carbon cycle impacts, with evolving mixotrophs exhibiting increased sensitivity to rising temperature.

Conclusions

Our results show that mixotrophs may respond more strongly to climate change than predicted by phenotypic plasticity alone due to evolutionary shifts in metabolic investment. However, the type of metabolic trade-off experienced by mixotrophs as well as ecological feedback on prey abundance may ultimately limit the extent of evolutionary change along the heterotrophy-phototrophy spectrum.

Dispersal plasticity driven by variation in fitness across species and environmental gradients

Dispersal plasticity, when organisms adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their environment, can play a major role in ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but how it relates to fitness remains scarcely explored. Theory predicts that high dispersal plasticity should evolve when environmental gradients have a strong impact on fitness. Using microcosms, we tested in five species of the genus Tetrahymena whether dispersal plasticity relates to differences in fitness sensitivity along three environmental gradients. Dispersal plasticity was species- and environment-dependent. As expected, dispersal plasticity was generally related to fitness sensitivity, with higher dispersal plasticity when fitness is more affected by environmental gradients. Individuals often preferentially disperse out of low fitness environments, but leaving environments that should yield high fitness was also commonly observed. We provide empirical support for a fundamental, but largely untested, assumption in dispersal theory: the extent of dispersal plasticity correlates with fitness sensitivity to the environment.

Drivers of population differentiation in phenotypic plasticity in a temperate conifer: A 27-year study

Phenotypic plasticity is a main mechanism for organisms to cope with changing environments and broaden their ecological range. Plasticity is genetically based and can evolve under natural selection, such that populations within a species show distinct phenotypic responses to the environment if evolved under different conditions. Understanding how intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity arises is critical to assess potential adaptation to ongoing climate change. Theory predicts that plasticity is favored in more favorable but variable environments. Yet, many theoretical predictions about benefits, costs, and selection on plasticity remain untested. To test these predictions, we took advantage of three genetic trials in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, which assessed 23 closely located Pinus ponderosa populations over 27 years. Mean environmental conditions and their spatial patterns of variation at the seed source populations were characterized based on six basic climate parameters. Despite the small area of origin, there was significant genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity for tree growth among populations. We found a significant negative correlation between phenotypic plasticity and the patch size of environmental heterogeneity at the seed source populations, but not with total environmental spatial variance. These results show that populations exposed to high microhabitat heterogeneity have evolved higher phenotypic plasticity and that the trigger was the grain rather than the total magnitude of spatial heterogeneity. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we also found a positive relationship between population plasticity and summer drought at the seed source, indicating that drought can act as a trigger of plasticity. Finally, we found a negative correlation between the quantitative genetic variance within populations and their phenotypic plasticity, suggesting compensatory adaptive mechanisms for the lack of genetic diversity. These results improve our understanding of the microevolutionary drivers of phenotypic plasticity, a critical process for resilience of long-lived species under climate change, and support decision-making in tree genetic improvement programs and seed transfer strategies.

Revisiting the growth rate hypothesis: Towards a holistic stoichiometric understanding of growth

The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) posits that variation in organismal stoichiometry (C:P and N:P ratios) is driven by growth-dependent allocation of P to ribosomal RNA. The GRH has found broad but not uniform support in studies across diverse biota and habitats. We synthesise information on how and why the tripartite growth-RNA-P relationship predicted by the GRH may be uncoupled and outline paths for both theoretical and empirical work needed to broaden the working domain of the GRH. We found strong support for growth to RNA (r²  = 0.59) and RNA-P to P (r²  = 0.63) relationships across taxa, but growth to P relationships were relatively weaker (r²  = 0.09). Together, the GRH was supported in ~50% of studies. Mechanisms behind GRH uncoupling were diverse but could generally be attributed to physiological (P accumulation in non-RNA pools, inactive ribosomes, translation elongation rates and protein turnover rates), ecological (limitation by resources other than P), and evolutionary (adaptation to different nutrient supply regimes) causes. These factors should be accounted for in empirical tests of the GRH and formalised mathematically to facilitate a predictive understanding of growth.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

Evolution of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity under rapid and slow temperature fluctuations

Global warming is associated with an increase in sea surface temperature and its variability. The consequences of evolving in variable, fluctuating environments are explored by a large body of theory: when populations evolve in fluctuating environments the frequency of fluctuations determines the shapes of tolerance curves (indicative of habitats that organisms can inhabit) and trait reaction norms (the phenotypes that organisms display across these environments). Despite this well-established theoretical backbone, predicting how trait and tolerance curves will evolve in organisms at the foundation of marine ecosystems remains a challenge. Here, we used a globally distributed phytoplankton, Thalassiosira pseudonana, and show that fluctuations in temperature on scales of 3–4 generations rapidly selected for populations with enhanced trait plasticity and elevated thermal tolerance. Fluctuations spanning 30–40 generations selected for the formation of two stable, genetically and physiologically distinct populations, one evolving high trait plasticity and enhanced thermal tolerance, and the other, akin to samples evolved under constant warming, with lower trait plasticity and a smaller increase in thermal tolerance.

When being flexible matters: Ecological underpinnings for the evolution of collective flexibility and task allocation

A central problem in evolutionary biology is explaining variation in the organization of task allocation across collective systems. Why do human cells irreversibly adopt a task during development (e.g., kidney vs. liver cell), while sponge cells switch between different cell types? And why have only some ant species evolved specialized castes of workers for particular tasks? Although it seems reasonable to suppose that such differences reflect, at least partially, the different ecological pressures that systems face, there is no general understanding of how a system’s dynamic environment shapes its task allocation. To this end, we develop a general mathematical framework that reveals how simple ecological considerations could potentially explain cross-system variation in task allocation—including in flexibility, specialization, and (in)activity.

Task allocation is a central feature of collective organization. Living collective systems, such as multicellular organisms or social insect colonies, have evolved diverse ways to allocate individuals to different tasks, ranging from rigid, inflexible task allocation that is not adjusted to changing circumstances to more fluid, flexible task allocation that is rapidly adjusted to the external environment. While the mechanisms underlying task allocation have been intensely studied, it remains poorly understood whether differences in the flexibility of task allocation can be viewed as adaptive responses to different ecological contexts—for example, different degrees of temporal variability. Motivated by this question, we develop an analytically tractable mathematical framework to explore the evolution of task allocation in dynamic environments. We find that collective flexibility is not necessarily always adaptive, and fails to evolve in environments that change too slowly (relative to how long tasks can be left unattended) or too quickly (relative to how rapidly task allocation can be adjusted). We further employ the framework to investigate how environmental variability impacts the internal organization of task allocation, which allows us to propose adaptive explanations for some puzzling empirical observations, such as seemingly unnecessary task switching under constant environmental conditions, apparent task specialization without efficiency benefits, and high levels of individual inactivity. Altogether, this work provides a general framework for probing the evolved diversity of task allocation strategies in nature and reinforces the idea that considering a system’s ecology is crucial to explaining its collective organization.

Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity

The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long-standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non-intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.

Sexual dimorphism in phenotypic plasticity and persistence under environmental change: An extension of theory and meta-analysis of current data

Populations must adapt to environmental changes to remain viable. Both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to adaptation, with plasticity possibly being more important for coping with rapid change. Adaptation is complex in species with separate sexes, as the sexes can differ in the strength or direction of natural selection, the genetic basis of trait variation, and phenotypic plasticity. Many species show sex differences in plasticity, yet how these differences influence extinction susceptibility remains unclear. We first extend theoretical models of population persistence in changing environments and show that persistence is affected by sexual dimorphism for phenotypic plasticity, trait genetic architecture, and sex-specific selection. Our models predict that female-biased adaptive plasticity-particularly in traits with modest-to-low cross-sex genetic correlations-typically promotes persistence, though we also identify conditions where sexually monomorphic or male-biased plasticity promotes persistence. We then perform a meta-analysis of sex-specific plasticity under manipulated thermal conditions. Although examples of sexually dimorphic plasticity are widely observed, systematic sex differences are rare. An exception-cold resistance-is systematically female-biased and represents a trait wherein sexually dimorphic plasticity might elevate population viability in changing environments. We discuss our results in light of debates about the roles of evolution and plasticity in extinction susceptibility.

Niche breadth and elevational range size: a comparative study on Middle-European Brassicaceae species

High-elevation species are predicted to have larger elevational ranges compared with species of lower elevations. The reasoning is that temperature variability is greater at higher elevation, selecting for wider niche breadth and more plastic genotypes. We used macroevolutionary comparisons involving 90 Brassicaceae species of the central Alps to test for associations among median elevation of occurrence, elevational range size and thermal variability over space and time on the one hand, and their associations with performance breadth or trait plasticity on the other hand. Performance breadth and trait plasticity were estimated by raising replicate plants per species under three temperature treatments (mild, recurrent frost, recurrent heat). Against prediction, we found that mid-elevation species had the largest elevational ranges, and their ranges were associated with increased spatial thermal variability. Nevertheless, variability in the thermal regime was positively associated neither with niche breadth nor with plasticity. Evidence for adaptive constraints was limited to a trade-off between acclimation-based increases in frost and heat resistance, and phylogenetic niche conservatism for median elevation of occurrence and temporal thermal variability. Results suggest that large elevational range size is associated with divergent adaptation within species, but not with more niche breadth or trait plasticity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment of range margins

It has been argued that adaptive phenotypic plasticity may facilitate range expansions over spatially and temporally variable environments. However, plasticity may induce fitness costs. This may hinder the evolution of plasticity. Earlier modelling studies examined the role of plasticity during range expansions of populations with fixed genetic variance. However, genetic variance evolves in natural populations. This may critically alter model outcomes. We ask: how does the capacity for plasticity in populations with evolving genetic variance alter range margins that populations without the capacity for plasticity are expected to attain? We answered this question using computer simulations and analytical approximations. We found a critical plasticity cost above which the capacity for plasticity has no impact on the expected range of the population. Below the critical cost, by contrast, plasticity facilitates range expansion, extending the range in comparison to that expected for populations without plasticity. We further found that populations may evolve plasticity to buffer temporal environmental fluctuations, but only when the plasticity cost is below the critical cost. Thus, the cost of plasticity is a key factor involved in range expansions of populations with the potential to express plastic response in the adaptive trait. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Reproductive colonization of land by frogs: Embryos and larvae excrete urea to avoid ammonia toxicity

Vertebrate colonization of land has occurred multiple times, including over 50 origins of terrestrial eggs in frogs. Some environmental factors and phenotypic responses that facilitated these transitions are known, but responses to water constraints and risk of ammonia toxicity during early development are poorly understood. We tested if ammonia accumulation and dehydration risk induce a shift from ammonia to urea excretion during early stages of four anurans, from three origins of terrestrial development. We quantified ammonia and urea concentrations during early development on land, under well-hydrated and dry conditions. Where we found urea excretion, we tested for a plastic increase under dry conditions and with ammonia accumulation in developmental environments. We assessed the potential adaptive role of urea excretion by comparing ammonia tolerance measured in 96h-LC50 tests with ammonia levels in developmental environments. Ammonia accumulated in foam nests and perivitelline fluid, increasing over development and reaching higher concentrations under dry conditions. All four species showed high ammonia tolerance, compared to fishes and aquatic-breeding frogs. Both nest-dwelling larvae of Leptodactylus fragilis and late embryos of Hyalinobatrachium fleischmanni excreted urea, showing a plastic increase under dry conditions. These two species can develop the longest on land and urea excretion appears adaptive, preventing their exposure to potentially lethal levels of ammonia. Neither late embryos of Agalychnis callidryas nor nest-dwelling larvae of Engystomops pustulosus experienced toxic ammonia levels under dry conditions, and neither excreted urea. Our results suggest that an early onset of urea excretion, its increase under dry conditions, and elevated ammonia tolerance can all help prevent ammonia toxicity during terrestrial development. High ammonia represents a general risk for development which may be exacerbated as climate change increases dehydration risk for terrestrial-breeding frogs. It may also be a cue that elicits adaptive physiological responses during early development.

An evolutionary model of sensitive periods when the reliability of cues varies across ontogeny

Sensitive periods are widespread in nature, but their evolution is not well understood. Recent mathematical modeling has illuminated the conditions favoring the evolution of sensitive periods early in ontogeny. However, sensitive periods also exist at later stages of ontogeny, such as adolescence. Here, we present a mathematical model that explores the conditions that favor sensitive periods at later developmental stages. In our model, organisms use environmental cues to incrementally construct a phenotype that matches their environment. Unlike in previous models, the reliability of cues varies across ontogeny. We use stochastic dynamic programming to compute optimal policies for a range of evolutionary ecologies and then simulate developmental trajectories to obtain mature phenotypes. We measure changes in plasticity across ontogeny using study paradigms inspired by empirical research: adoption and cross-fostering. Our results show that sensitive periods only evolve later in ontogeny if the reliability of cues increases across ontogeny. The onset, duration, and offset of sensitive periods-and the magnitude of plasticity-depend on the specific parameter settings. If the reliability of cues decreases across ontogeny, sensitive periods are favored only early in ontogeny. These results are robust across different paradigms suggesting that empirical findings might be comparable despite different experimental designs.

Properties of phenotypic plasticity in discrete threshold traits

Forms of phenotypic plasticity in key traits, and forms of selection on and genetic variation in such plasticity, fundamentally underpin phenotypic, population dynamic, and evolutionary responses to environmental variation and directional change. Accordingly, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have examined properties and consequences of plasticity, primarily considering traits that are continuously distributed on observed phenotypic scales with linear reaction norms. However, many environmentally sensitive traits are expressed as discrete alternative phenotypes and are appropriately characterized as quantitative genetic threshold traits. Here, we highlight that forms of phenotypic plasticity, genetic variation, and inheritance in plasticity, and outcomes of selection on plasticity, could differ substantially between threshold traits and continuously distributed traits (as are typically considered). We thereby highlight theoretical developments that are required to rationalize and predict phenotypic and microevolutionary dynamics involving plastic threshold traits, and outline how intrinsic properties of such traits could provide relatively straightforward explanations for apparently idiosyncratic observed patterns of phenotypic variation. We summarize how key quantitative genetic parameters underlying threshold traits can be estimated, and thereby set the scene for embedding dynamic discrete traits into theoretical and empirical understanding of the role of plasticity in driving phenotypic, population, and evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Inferring multilayer interactome networks shaping phenotypic plasticity and evolution

Phenotypic plasticity represents a capacity by which the organism changes its phenotypes in response to environmental stimuli. Despite its pivotal role in adaptive evolution, how phenotypic plasticity is genetically controlled remains elusive. Here, we develop a unified framework for coalescing all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) into a quantitative graph. This framework integrates functional genetic mapping, evolutionary game theory, and predator-prey theory to decompose the net genetic effect of each SNP into its independent and dependent components. The independent effect arises from the intrinsic capacity of a SNP, only expressed when it is in isolation, whereas the dependent effect results from the extrinsic influence of other SNPs. The dependent effect is conceptually beyond the traditional definition of epistasis by not only characterizing the strength of epistasis but also capturing the bi-causality of epistasis and the sign of the causality. We implement functional clustering and variable selection to infer multilayer, sparse, and multiplex interactome networks from any dimension of genetic data. We design and conduct two GWAS experiments using Staphylococcus aureus, aimed to test the genetic mechanisms underlying the phenotypic plasticity of this species to vancomycin exposure and Escherichia coli coexistence. We reconstruct the two most comprehensive genetic networks for abiotic and biotic phenotypic plasticity. Pathway analysis shows that SNP-SNP epistasis for phenotypic plasticity can be annotated to protein-protein interactions through coding genes. Our model can unveil the regulatory mechanisms of significant loci and excavate missing heritability from some insignificant loci. Our multilayer genetic networks provide a systems tool for dissecting environment-induced evolution.

Slower environmental cycles maintain greater life-history variation within populations

Populations in nature are comprised of individual life histories, whose variation underpins ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet the forces of environmental selection that shape intrapopulation life-history variation are still not well-understood, and efforts have largely focused on random (stochastic) fluctuations of the environment. However, a ubiquitous mode of environmental fluctuation in nature is cyclical, whose periodicities can change independently of stochasticity. Here, we test theoretically based hypotheses for whether shortened ('Fast') or lengthened ('Slow') environmental cycles should generate higher intrapopulation variation of life history phenotypes. We show, through a combination of agent-based modelling and a multi-generational laboratory selection experiment using the tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus, that slower environmental cycles maintain higher levels of intrapopulation variation. Surprisingly, the effect of environmental periodicity on variation was much stronger than that of stochasticity. Thus, our results show that periodicity is an important facet of fluctuating environments for life-history variation.

Temperature heterogeneity correlates with intraspecific variation in physiological flexibility in a small endotherm

Phenotypic flexibility allows individuals to reversibly modify trait values and theory predicts an individual's relative degree of flexibility positively correlates with the environmental heterogeneity it experiences. We test this prediction by integrating surveys of population genetic and physiological variation with thermal acclimation experiments and indices of environmental heterogeneity in the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) and its congeners. We combine field measures of thermogenic capacity for 335 individuals, 22,006 single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 181 individuals, and laboratory acclimations replicated on five populations. We show that Junco populations: (1) differ in their thermogenic responses to temperature variation in the field; (2) harbor allelic variation that also correlates with temperature heterogeneity; and (3) exhibit intra-specific variation in thermogenic flexibility in the laboratory that correlates with the heterogeneity of their native thermal environment. These results provide comprehensive support that phenotypic flexibility corresponds with environmental heterogeneity and highlight its importance for coping with environmental change.

Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment

Most natural environments exhibit a substantial component of random variation, with a degree of temporal autocorrelation that defines the color of environmental noise. Such environmental fluctuations cause random fluctuations in natural selection, affecting the predictability of evolution. But despite long-standing theoretical interest in population genetics in stochastic environments, there is a dearth of empirical estimation of underlying parameters of this theory. More importantly, it is still an open question whether evolution in fluctuating environments can be predicted indirectly using simpler measures, which combine environmental time series with population estimates in constant environments. Here we address these questions by using an automated experimental evolution approach. We used a liquid-handling robot to expose over a hundred lines of the micro-alga Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity over a continuous range, with controlled mean, variance, and autocorrelation. We then tracked the frequencies of two competing strains through amplicon sequencing of nuclear and choloroplastic barcode sequences. We show that the magnitude of environmental fluctuations (determined by their variance), but also their predictability (determined by their autocorrelation), had large impacts on the average selection coefficient. The variance in frequency change, which quantifies randomness in population genetics, was substantially higher in a fluctuating environment. The reaction norm of selection coefficients against constant salinity yielded accurate predictions for the mean selection coefficient in a fluctuating environment. This selection reaction norm was in turn well predicted by environmental tolerance curves, with population growth rate against salinity. However, both the selection reaction norm and tolerance curves underestimated the variance in selection caused by random environmental fluctuations. Overall, our results provide exceptional insights into the prospects for understanding and predicting genetic evolution in randomly fluctuating environments.

Being able to predict evolution under natural selection is important for many applied fields of biology, ranging from agriculture to medicine or conservation. However, this endeavor is complicated by factors that inherently limit our ability to predict the future, such as random fluctuations in the environment. Population genetic theory indicates that probabilistic predictions can still be made in this context, but the extent to which this holds empirically, and whether these predictions can be based on simple measurements, are still open questions. Making progress on answering these questions can be achieved by capitalizing on experiments where the environment is precisely controlled over many generations. Here, we used a pipetting robot to generate random time series of salinities with controlled patterns of fluctuations, which we imposed on a microalga, Dunaliella salina. Tracking the frequencies of two genotypes in a mixture by sequencing two short barcode sequences, we were able to show how patterns of fluctuating selection relate to the fluctuating environment. Interestingly, parts of these responses, but not all, could be predicted by simpler measurements in constant environments, allowing precise characterization the limits and prospects for predicting evolution in fluctuating environments.

Many ways to make darker flies: Intra- and interspecific variation in Drosophila body pigmentation components

Body pigmentation is an evolutionarily diversified and ecologically relevant trait with substantial variation within and between species, and important roles in animal survival and reproduction. Insect pigmentation, in particular, provides some of the most compelling examples of adaptive evolution, including its ecological significance and genetic bases. Pigmentation includes multiple aspects of color and color pattern that may vary more or less independently, and can be under different selective pressures. We decompose Drosophila thorax and abdominal pigmentation, a valuable eco-evo-devo model, into distinct measurable traits related to color and color pattern. We investigate intra- and interspecific variation for those traits and assess its different sources. For each body part, we measured overall darkness, as well as four other pigmentation properties distinguishing between background color and color of the darker pattern elements that decorate each body part. By focusing on two standard D. melanogaster laboratory populations, we show that pigmentation components vary and covary in distinct manners depending on sex, genetic background, and temperature during development. Studying three natural populations of D. melanogaster along a latitudinal cline and five other Drosophila species, we then show that evolution of lighter or darker bodies can be achieved by changing distinct component traits. Our results paint a much more complex picture of body pigmentation variation than previous studies could uncover, including patterns of sexual dimorphism, thermal plasticity, and interspecific diversity. These findings underscore the value of detailed quantitative phenotyping and analysis of different sources of variation for a better understanding of phenotypic variation and diversification, and the ecological pressures and genetic mechanisms underlying them.

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to-one genotype-phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to-one genotype-phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation-compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism-even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.