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Chan HLY, Chen CJ, Omede O, Al Qamish J, Al Naamani K, Bane A, Tan SS, Simonova M, Cardenas I, Derbala M, Akin O, Phillips RO, Abdelmageed MK, Abdulla M, Adda D, Al Baqali A, Al Dweik N, Al Ejji K, Al Ghazzawi I, Al Kaabi S, Al Sadadi M, Al Salman J, AlBadri M, Al-Busafi SA, Al-Romaihi HE, Ampofo W, Antonov K, Anyaike C, Arome F, Blach S, Borodo MM, Brandon SM, Bright B, Butt MT, Chen DS, Chen PJ, Chien RN, Chuang WL, Cuellar D, Elbardiny AA, Estes C, Farag E, Fung J, Gamkrelidze I, Garcia V, Genov J, Ghandour Z, Ghuloom M, Gomez B, Gunter J, Habeeb J, Hajelssedig O, Hamoudi W, Himatt SM, Hrstic I, Hu CC, Huang CF, Hui YT, Jahis R, Jelev D, John AK, Kaliaskarova KS, Kamel Y, Kao JH, Khamis J, Khattabi H, Khoudri I, Konysbekova A, Kotzev I, Lai MS, Lao WC, Layden J, Lee MH, Lesi O, Li M, Lo A, Loo CK, Lukšić B, Maaroufi A, Malu AO, Mateva L, Mitova R, Mohamed R, Morović M, Murphy K, Mustapha B, Nersesov A, Ngige E, Njouom R, Njoya O, Nonković D, Obekpa S, Oguche S, Okolo EE, Omuemu C, Ondoa P, Opare-Sem O, Owusu-Ofori S, Prokopenko YN, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Razavi-Shearer K, Redae B, Reic T, Rinke de Wit T, Rios C, Robbins S, Roberts LR, Sanad SJ, Schmelzer JD, Sharma M, Su TH, Sultan K, Tchernev K, Tsang OTY, Tsang S, Tzeuton C, Ugoeze S, Uzochukwu B, Vi R, Vince A, Wani HU, Wong VWS, Workneh A, Yacoub R, Yesmembetov KI, Youbi M, Yuen MF, Nde H. The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4. J Viral Hepat 2017; 24 Suppl 2:25-43. [PMID: 29105283 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2017] [Accepted: 07/03/2017] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- H L Y Chan
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.,Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | | | - O Omede
- Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - J Al Qamish
- Gastroenterolgy Clinic, IBN Al-Nafees Hospital, Manama, Bahsrain
| | - K Al Naamani
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | - A Bane
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Addis Ababa University Medical School, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.,Ethiopian Gastroenterological Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - S S Tan
- Department of Hepatology, Selayang Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - M Simonova
- Clinic of Gastroenterology, Military Medical Academy, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - I Cardenas
- Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
| | - M Derbala
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - O Akin
- Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - R O Phillips
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - M Abdulla
- Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain
| | - D Adda
- Civil Society Network on Hepatitis, Abuja, Nigeria.,Chagro-Care Trust (CCT), Jalingo, Nigeria
| | - A Al Baqali
- Al Kindi Specialised Hospital, Manama, Bahrain
| | - N Al Dweik
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - K Al Ejji
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - I Al Ghazzawi
- GI and Hepatology Department, Jordan Royal Medical Services, Amman, Jordan
| | - S Al Kaabi
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - M AlBadri
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - S A Al-Busafi
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat, Oman
| | | | - W Ampofo
- Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | - K Antonov
- University Hospital "St. Ivan Rilski", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - C Anyaike
- Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - F Arome
- Advocacy for the Prevention of Hepatitis in Nigeria, Jos, Nigeria
| | - S Blach
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - M M Borodo
- Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria.,Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria
| | - S M Brandon
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - B Bright
- LiveWell Initiative (LWI), Lagos, Nigeria
| | - M T Butt
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - D S Chen
- Hepatitis Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - P J Chen
- National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - R N Chien
- Liver Research Unit, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - W L Chuang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
| | - D Cuellar
- Department of Epidemiology and Demography, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
| | | | - C Estes
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - E Farag
- Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | - J Fung
- Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - I Gamkrelidze
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - V Garcia
- Ministry of Public Health, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - J Genov
- University Hospital "Queen Joanna", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Z Ghandour
- BDF Hospital, Royal Medical Services, Riffa, Bahrain
| | - M Ghuloom
- Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain
| | - B Gomez
- Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA
| | - J Gunter
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - J Habeeb
- Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain
| | - O Hajelssedig
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - W Hamoudi
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Al Bashir Hospital, Amman, Jordan.,Jordan Ministry of Health, Amman, Jordan
| | - S M Himatt
- Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | - I Hrstic
- General Hospital Pula, Pula, Croatia
| | - C C Hu
- Liver Research Unit, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - C F Huang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
| | - Y T Hui
- Department of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - R Jahis
- Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - D Jelev
- University Hospital "St. Ivan Rilski", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - A K John
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - K S Kaliaskarova
- Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan.,Republican Coordination Center for Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - Y Kamel
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Medicine, Miniya University, Minya, Egypt
| | - J H Kao
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - J Khamis
- Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain
| | - H Khattabi
- Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, World Health Organization, Cairo, Egypt
| | - I Khoudri
- Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - A Konysbekova
- Republican Diagnostic Center, Astana, Kazakhstan.,University Medical Center, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - I Kotzev
- University Hospital "St. Marina", Varna, Bulgaria
| | - M S Lai
- Department of Medicine, North District Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - W C Lao
- Department of Medicine, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - J Layden
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - M H Lee
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - O Lesi
- University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.,Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - M Li
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - A Lo
- Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - C K Loo
- Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - B Lukšić
- Clinical Department of Infectious Diseases, Split University Hospital and Split University Medical School, Split, Croatia
| | - A Maaroufi
- Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - A O Malu
- Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi, Nigeria
| | - L Mateva
- University Hospital "St. Ivan Rilski", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - R Mitova
- University Hospital "Queen Joanna", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - R Mohamed
- University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - M Morović
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Zadar General Hospital, Zadar, Croatia
| | - K Murphy
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | | | - A Nersesov
- National Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - E Ngige
- Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - R Njouom
- Virology Department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon
| | - O Njoya
- Research Laboratory on Viral Hepatitis & Health Communication, Faculty of Medicine, University of Yaoundé, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - D Nonković
- Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Public Health, County of Dalmatia, Split, Croatia
| | - S Obekpa
- Advocacy for the Prevention of Hepatitis in Nigeria, Jos, Nigeria.,Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi, Nigeria
| | - S Oguche
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria.,Department of Medicine, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria.,Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria
| | - E E Okolo
- Beacon Youth Initiative, Lafia, Nigeria
| | - C Omuemu
- University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
| | - P Ondoa
- Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.,African Society of Laboratory Medicine, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - O Opare-Sem
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Y N Prokopenko
- Republican Coordination Center for Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - H Razavi
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | | | | | - B Redae
- Ethiopian Gastroenterological Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.,St. Paul's Hospital Millennium College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - T Reic
- European Liver Patients Association, Sint-Truiden, Belgium
| | - T Rinke de Wit
- PharmAccess Foundation, Department of Global Health, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - C Rios
- Department of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
| | - S Robbins
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - L R Roberts
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - S J Sanad
- BDF Hospital, Royal Medical Services, Riffa, Bahrain
| | - J D Schmelzer
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
| | - M Sharma
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - T H Su
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - K Sultan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - O T Y Tsang
- Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - S Tsang
- Department of Medicine, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - C Tzeuton
- Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon
| | - S Ugoeze
- Federal Medical Centre, Jalingo, Nigeria
| | - B Uzochukwu
- Institute of Public Health, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - R Vi
- Republican Coordination Center for Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Astana, Kazakhstan.,International HepatoTransplant Group, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - A Vince
- Medical School University of Zagreb, University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - H U Wani
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - V W S Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.,State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - A Workneh
- Non-Communicable Diseases Programme, World Health Organization, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.,Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - R Yacoub
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - K I Yesmembetov
- National Scientific Center of Oncology and Transplantology, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - M Youbi
- Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - M F Yuen
- Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - H Nde
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
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