The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update

Characteristics and outcome of anti-hepatitis D virus positive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic hepatitis D virus (HDV) often leads to end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Comprehensive data pertaining to large populations with HDV and HCC are missing, therefore we sought to assess the characteristics, management, and outcome of these patients, comparing them to patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

METHODS

We analysed the Italian Liver Cancer database focusing on patients with positivity for HBV surface antigen and anti-HDV antibodies (HBV/HDV, n = 107) and patients with HBV infection alone (n = 588). Clinical and oncological characteristics, treatment, and survival were compared in the two groups.

RESULTS

Patients with HBV/HDV had worse liver function [Model for End-stage Liver Disease score: 11 vs. 9, p < .0001; Child-Turcotte-Pugh score: 7 vs. 5, p < .0001] than patients with HBV. HCC was more frequently diagnosed during surveillance (72.9% vs. 52.4%, p = .0002), and the oncological stage was more frequently Milan-in (67.3% vs. 52.7%, p = .005) in patients with HBV/HDV. Liver transplantation was more frequently performed in HBV/HDV than in HBV patients (36.4% vs. 9.5%), while the opposite was observed for resection (8.4% vs. 20.1%, p < .0001), and in a competing risk analysis, HBV/HDV patients had a higher probability of receiving transplantation, independently of liver function and oncological stage. A trend towards longer survival was observed in patients with HBV/HDV (50.4 vs. 44.4 months, p = .106).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HBV/HDV, HCC is diagnosed more frequently during surveillance, resulting in a less advanced cancer stage in patients with more deranged liver function than HBV alone. Patients with HBV/HDV have a heightened benefit from liver transplantation, positively influencing survival.

The adiponectin-derived peptide ALY688 protects against the development of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is the severe form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease which has a high potential to progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, yet adequate effective therapies are lacking. Hypoadiponectinemia is causally involved in the pathogenesis of MASH. This study investigated the pharmacological effects of adiponectin replacement therapy with the adiponectin-derived peptide ALY688 (ALY688-SR) in a mouse model of MASH. Human induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell-derived hepatocytes were used to test cytotoxicity and signaling of unmodified ALY688 in vitro. High-fat diet with low methionine and no added choline (CDAHF) was used to induce MASH and test the effects of ALY688-SR in vivo. Histological MASH activity score (NAS) and fibrosis score were determined to assess the effect of ALY688-SR. Transcriptional characterization of mice through RNA sequencing was performed to indicate potential molecular mechanisms involved. In cultured hepatocytes, ALY688 efficiently induced adiponectin-like signaling, including the AMP-activated protein kinase and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways, and did not elicit cytotoxicity. Administration of ALY688-SR in mice did not influence body weight but significantly ameliorated CDAHF-induced hepatic steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis, therefore effectively preventing the development and progression of MASH. Mechanistically, ALY688-SR treatment markedly induced hepatic expression of genes involved in fatty acid oxidation, whereas it significantly suppressed the expression of pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic genes as demonstrated by transcriptomic analysis. ALY688-SR may represent an effective approach in MASH treatment. Its mode of action involves inhibition of hepatic steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis, possibly via canonical adiponectin-mediated signaling.

Safety and Efficacy of Atezolizumab/Bevacizumab in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Impaired Liver Function: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Safety and outcome of atezolizumab/bevacizumab in Child-Pugh B patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been completely characterized.

Objectives

In this study, we aimed at addressing safety and efficacy of atezolizumab/bevacizumab in Child-Pugh B patients by reviewing the available data and analyzing them by meta-analysis.

Methods

We compared the safety and efficacy of atezolizumab/becavizumab treatment in patients with unresectable HCC and various degrees of liver dysfunction. A total of 8 retrospective, non-randomized, cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis, for a total of 1,071 Child-Pugh A and 225 Child-Pugh B patients. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade was also used to assess liver function, when available.

Results

Grade ≥3 adverse events were observed in 11.8% of Child-Pugh class A and 26.8% class B patients (p = 0.0001), with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.43 (confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.90; p = 0.02). Progression-free survival (PFS) at both 6 months (4.90 ± 2.08 vs. 4.75 ± 2.08 months; p = 0.0004) and 12 months (8.83 ± 2.32 vs. 7.26 ± 2.33 months; p = 0.002) was lower in Child-Pugh class B patients. A trend toward a higher objective response rate (ORR) was observed in Child-Pugh class A patients (219/856, 25.6%) as compared to Child-Pugh class B patients (25/138, 18.1%; p = 0.070), while the probability of obtaining an ORR was significantly greater in Child-Pugh A patients (OR 1.79, CI 1.12-2.86; p = 0.02). Median overall survival (OS) was 16.8 ± 2.0 and 6.8 ± 3.2 months in Child-Pugh A and B patients, respectively (mean difference 9.06 months, CI 7.01-11.1, p < 0.0001). Lastly, OS was longer in patients with ALBI grades 1-2 than in those with grade 3 (8.3 ± 11.4 vs. 3.3 ± 5.0 months, p = 0.0008).

Conclusions

Oncological efficacy of atezolizumab/bevacizumab is moderate in Child-Pugh class B patients, and the shorter PFS and OS associated with the greater likelihood of experiencing treatment-related adverse events observed in these patients suggest great caution and individualization of treatment, possibly with the support of the ALBI grade.

The Role of Hepatitis Viruses as Drivers of Hepatocancerogenesis

Recently, metabolic associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) became the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and one of the most frequent causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nonetheless, in this epidemiological trend, viral hepatitis remains the major driver in hepatic carcinogenesis. Globally, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma, with an overall attributable risk of approximately 40%, followed by hepatitis C virus (HCV), which accounts for 28-30% of cases, with significant geographic variations between the Eastern and Western world. Considering all the etiologies, HCC risk increases proportionally with the progression of liver disease, but the risk is consistently higher in patients with viral triggers. This evidence indicates that both direct (due to the oncogenic properties of the viruses) and indirect (through the mechanisms of chronic inflammation that lead to cirrhosis) mechanisms are involved, alongside the presence of co-factors contributing to liver damage (smoking, alcohol, and metabolic factors) that synergistically enhance the oncogenic process. The aim of this review is to analyze the oncogenic role of hepatitis viruses in the liver, evaluating epidemiological changes and direct and indirect viral mechanisms that lead to liver cancer.

Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Prognostic Factor for Very Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Field factors play more important roles in predicting the outcomes of patients compared with tumor factors in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic ability of noninvasive serum marker scores for hepatic fibrosis and liver functional reserve on very early-stage HCC is still not yet determined. We aimed to investigate the performance of these serum marker scores in predicting the prognoses of patients with very early-stage HCC.

METHODS

A total of 446 patients with very early-stage HCC from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Serum biomarkers and prognostic scores determining overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. We compared the Akaike information criterion among the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, EZ (easy)-ALBI score, modified ALBI score, fibrosis-4 score, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio to determine the predictability on the OS.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 41.0 months (interquartile range 36.9-45.1 months), 81 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.0%. Among the noninvasive serum marker scores, PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS with the lowest Akaike information criterion (846.407) compared with other scores. Moreover, we stratified the patients into high-risk (PNI <45) and low-risk (PNI ≥45) groups. It showed that the 5-year OS rates were 83.4% and 60.8% in the low-risk and high-risk PNI groups, respectively ( P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS for patients with very early-stage HCC.

Construction and validation of somatic mutation-derived long non-coding RNAs signatures of genomic instability to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Long non-coding RNAs (LncRNAs) have been found to be a potential prognostic factor for cancers, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Some LncRNAs have been confirmed as potential indicators to quantify genomic instability (GI). Nevertheless, GI-LncRNAs remain largely unexplored. This study established a GI-derived LncRNA signature (GILncSig) that can predict the prognosis of HCC patients.

AIM

To establish a GILncSig that can predict the prognosis of HCC patients.

METHODS

Identification of GI-LncRNAs was conducted by combining LncRNA expression and somatic mutation profiles. The GI-LncRNAs were then analyzed for functional enrichment. The GILncSig was established in the training set by Cox regression analysis, and its predictive ability was verified in the testing set and TCGA set. In addition, we explored the effects of the GILncSig and TP53 on prognosis.

RESULTS

A total of 88 GI-LncRNAs were found, and functional enrichment analysis showed that their functions were mainly involved in small molecule metabolism and GI. The GILncSig was constructed by 5 LncRNAs (miR210HG, AC016735.1, AC116351.1, AC010643.1, LUCAT1). In the training set, the prognosis of high-risk patients was significantly worse than that of low-risk patients, and similar results were verified in the testing set and TCGA set. Multivariate Cox regression analysis and stratified analysis confirmed that the GILncSig could be used as an independent prognostic factor. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the GILncSig showed that the area under the curve (0.773) was higher than the two LncRNA signatures published recently. Furthermore, the GILncSig may have a better predictive performance than TP53 mutation status alone.

CONCLUSION

We established a GILncSig that can predict the prognosis of HCC patients, which will help to guide prognostic evaluation and treatment decisions.

Hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma has superior overall survival compared with other etiologies

BACKGROUND

Whether the etiology of chronic liver disease (CLD) impacts the overall survival (OS) of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. We aim to clarify this issue.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between 2011 and 2020, 3941 patients who were newly diagnosed with HCC at our institution were enrolled in this study. In patients with multiple CLD etiologies, etiology was classified using the following hierarchy: hepatitis C virus (HCV) > hepatitis B virus (HBV) > alcohol-related > all negative. All negative was defined as negative for HCV, HBV, and alcohol use disorder.

RESULTS

Among 3941 patients, 1407 patients were classified with HCV-related HCC, 1677 patients had HBV-related HCC, 145 patients had alcohol-related HCC, and 712 patients had all-negative HCC. Using the all-negative group as the reference group, multivariate analysis showed that HBV is an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio: 0.856; 95% confidence interval: 0.745-0.983; p = 0.027). Patients with HBV-related HCC had superior OS compared with patients with other CLD etiologies (p<0.001). Subgroup analyses were performed, for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages 0-A (p<0.001); serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels≧20 ng/ml (p<0.001); AFP levels < 20 ng/ml (p<0.001); age > 65 years (p<0.001); and the use of curative treatments (p = 0.002). No significant difference in OS between HBV and other etiologies was observed among patients aged ≤ 65 years (p = 0.304); with BCLC stages B-D (p = 0.973); or who underwent non-curative treatments (p = 0.1).

CONCLUSION

Patients with HBV-related HCC had superior OS than patients with other HCC etiologies.

Prediction of survival and analysis of prognostic factors for patients with AFP negative hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a poor prognosis, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is widely used to evaluate HCC. However, the proportion of AFP-negative individuals cannot be disregarded. This study aimed to establish a nomogram of risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with AFP-negative HCC and to evaluate its diagnostic efficiency.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data from patients with AFP-negative initial diagnosis of HCC (ANHC) between 2004 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for model establishment and validation. We randomly divided overall cohort into the training or validation cohort (7:3). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify the risk factors. We constructed nomograms with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) as clinical endpoint events and constructed survival analysis by using Kaplan-Meier curve. Also, we conducted internal validation with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and Decision curve analysis (DCA) to validate the clinical value of the model.

RESULTS

This study included 1811 patients (1409 men; 64.7% were Caucasian; the average age was 64 years; 60.7% were married). In the multivariate analysis, the independent risk factors affecting prognosis were age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, tumor size, tumor grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The nomogram-based model related C-indexes were 0.762 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.752-0.772) and 0.752 (95% CI: 0.740-0.769) for predicting OS, and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.774-0.795) and 0.779 (95% CI: 0.762-0.795) for predicting CSS. The nomogram model showed that the predicted death was consistent with the actual value. The ROC analysis and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical value compared with TNM staging.

CONCLUSION

The age(HR:1.012, 95% CI: 1.006-1.018, P-value < 0.001), ethnicity(African-American: HR:0.946, 95% CI: 0.783-1.212, P-value: 0.66; Others: HR:0.737, 95% CI: 0.613-0.887, P-value: 0.001), tumor diameter(HR:1.006, 95% CI: 1.004-1.008, P-value < 0.001), year of diagnosis (HR:0.852, 95% CI: 0.729-0.997, P-value: 0.046), tumor grade(Grade 2: HR:1.124, 95% CI: 0.953-1.326, P-value: 0.164; Grade 3: HR:1.984, 95% CI: 1.574-2.501, P-value < 0.001; Grade 4: HR:2.119, 95% CI: 1.115-4.027, P-value: 0.022), surgery(Liver Resection: HR:0.193, 95% CI: 0.160-0.234, P-value < 0.001; Liver Transplant: HR:0.102, 95% CI: 0.072-0.145, P-value < 0.001), chemotherapy(HR:0.561, 95% CI: 0.471-0.668, P-value < 0.001), and radiotherapy(HR:0.641, 95% CI: 0.463-0.887, P-value:0.007) were independent prognostic factors for patients with ANHC. We developed a nomogram model for predicting the OS and CSS of patients with ANHC, with a good predictive performance.

Multidisciplinary treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in 2023: Italian practice Treatment Guidelines of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery (AICEP), Italian Association of Hospital Gastroenterologists (AIGO), Italian Association of Radiology and Clinical Oncology (AIRO), Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (SIAPeC-IAP), Italian Society of Surgery (SIC), Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE), Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), Italian Organ Transplant Society (SITO), and Association of Patients with Hepatitis and Liver Disease (EpaC) - Part II - Non-surgical treatments

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. The remarkable improvements in treating HCC achieved in the last years have increased the complexity of its management. Following the need to have updated guidelines on the multidisciplinary treatment management of HCC, the Italian Scientific Societies involved in the management of this cancer have promoted the drafting of a new dedicated document. This document was drawn up according to the GRADE methodology needed to produce guidelines based on evidence. Here is presented the second part of guidelines, focused on the multidisciplinary tumor board of experts and non-surgical treatments of HCC.

Intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: refining substaging or shifting paradigm?

This review explores the evolution of cancer staging, focusing on intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the challenges faced by physicians. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, introduced in 1999, was designed to address the limitations associated with providing accurate prognostic information for HCC and allocating specific treatments, to avoid overtreatment. However, criticism has emerged, particularly regarding the intermediate stage of HCC (BCLC-B) and its heterogeneous patient population. To overcome this limitation, various subclassification systems, such as the Bolondi and Kinki criteria, have been proposed. These systems are aimed at refining categorizations within the intermediate stage and have demonstrated varying degrees of success in predicting outcomes through external validation. This study discusses the shift in treatment paradigms, emphasizing the need for a more personalized approach rather than strictly adhering to cancer stages, without dismissing the relevance of staging systems. It assesses the available treatment options for intermediate-stage HCC, highlighting the importance of considering surgical and nonsurgical options alongside transarterial chemoembolization for optimal outcomes. In conclusion, the text advocates for a paradigm shift in staging systems prioritizing treatment suitability over cancer stage. This reflects the evolving landscape of HCC management, where a multidisciplinary approach is crucial for tailoring treatments to individual patients, ultimately aiming to improve overall survival.

Scoping review of values elicitation tools for treatment decisions in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Treatment choices in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) involve consideration of tradeoffs between the benefits, toxicities, inconvenience, and costs. Stated preference elicitation methods have been used in the medical field to help evaluate complex treatment decision-making. The aim of this study was to conduct a scoping review to assess the evidence base for the use of preference elicitation tools or willingness to pay/willingness to accept methods for HCC treatment decision-making from both the patient and provider perspective.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review to identify abstracts or manuscripts focused on the role preference elicitation tools or willingness to pay/willingness to accept methods for HCC treatment options among patients, caregivers, and/or providers. Two researchers independently screened full-text references and resolved conflicts through discussion. We summarized key findings, including the type and setting of preference-elicitation tools used for HCC treatment decisions.

RESULTS

Ten published abstracts or manuscripts evaluated the role of preference elicitation tools for HCC treatments. The studies revealed several attributes that are considered by patients and providers making HCC treatment decisions. Many of the studies reviewed suggested that while patients place the most value on extending their overall survival, they are willing to forgo overall survival to avoid risks of treatments and maintain quality of life. Studies of physicians and surgeons found that provider preferences are dependent on patient characteristics, provider specialty, and surgeon or hospital-related factors.

CONCLUSION

This scoping review explored both patient and physician preferences towards treatment modalities in all stages of HCC. The studies revealed a large scope of potential attributes that may be important to patients and that many patients are willing to forgo survival to maintain quality of life. Further research should explore both preference elicitation of currently available and emerging therapies for HCC as well as the use of this data to develop patient-facing tools to assist in navigating treatment options.

Identification of immune cell-related prognostic genes characterized by a distinct microenvironment in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The development and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been reported to be associated with immune-related genes and the tumor microenvironment. Nevertheless, there are not enough prognostic biomarkers and models available for clinical use. Based on seven prognostic genes, this study calculated overall survival in patients with HCC using a prognostic survival model and revealed the immune status of the tumor microenvironment (TME).

AIM

To develop a novel immune cell-related prognostic model of HCC and depict the basic profile of the immune response in HCC.

METHODS

We obtained clinical information and gene expression data of HCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) datasets. TCGA and ICGC datasets were used for screening prognostic genes along with developing and validating a seven-gene prognostic survival model by weighted gene coexpression network analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with Cox regression. The relative analysis of tumor mutation burden (TMB), TME cell infiltration, immune checkpoints, immune therapy, and functional pathways was also performed based on prognostic genes.

RESULTS

Seven prognostic genes were identified for signature construction. Survival receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the good performance of survival prediction. TMB could be regarded as an independent factor in HCC survival prediction. There was a significant difference in stromal score, immune score, and estimate score between the high-risk and low-risk groups stratified based on the risk score derived from the seven-gene prognostic model. Several immune checkpoints, including VTCN1 and TNFSF9, were found to be associated with the seven prognostic genes and risk score. Different combinations of checkpoint blockade targeting inhibitory CTLA4 and PD1 receptors and potential chemotherapy drugs hold great promise for specific HCC therapies. Potential pathways, such as cell cycle regulation and metabolism of some amino acids, were also identified and analyzed.

CONCLUSION

The novel seven-gene (CYTH3, ENG, HTRA3, PDZD4, SAMD14, PGF, and PLN) prognostic model showed high predictive efficiency. The TMB analysis based on the seven genes could depict the basic profile of the immune response in HCC, which might be worthy of clinical application.

Lymphocyte-to-C Reactive Protein Ratio is an Independent Predictor of Survival Benefits for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Radiotherapy

Background

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) has emerged as an alternative approach for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and we aim to find potential prognostic biomarkers for HCC patients who received SBRT.

Methods

In this study, we retrospectively analyzed HCC patients who underwent SBRT in our institution from January 2018 to December 2022. The inflammatory parameters, along with baseline patients' characteristics were collected to elucidate the potential relationship with survival benefits and liver toxicities.

Results

Overall, 35 patients were enrolled in our study. For the efficacy population (25 patients who underwent SBRT for primary liver lesions), the objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) were 60% and 100%, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 9.9 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.6-14.1 months], and the median overall survival (OS) was 18.5 months (95% CI 14.2-22.8 months). We further confirmed that higher baseline lymphocyte-C-reactive protein ratio (LCR) (≥2361.11) was positively related to both longer PFS (12.0 vs 4.3 months, P = 0.002) and OS (21.9 vs 11.4 months, P = 0.022). Moreover, patients with diabetes and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥400 ng/mL) were also found to be associated with worse OS. The most common hepatotoxicity was elevated gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (84.0%).

Conclusion

In conclusion, for patients with inoperable HCC, SBRT resulted in satisfactory local control, survival benefits, and acceptable liver toxicity. Pre-radiotherapy LCR might be an independent and readily available predictor for survival, which facilitates us to find the most appropriate treatment options.

Development of a transformer model for predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation

INTRODUCTION

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a widely accepted, minimally invasive treatment modality for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Accurate prognosis prediction is important to identify patients at high risk for cancer progression/recurrence after RFA. Recently, state-of-the-art transformer models showing improved performance over existing deep learning-based models have been developed in several fields. This study was aimed at developing and validating a transformer model to predict the overall survival in HCC patients with treated by RFA.

METHODS

We enrolled a total of 1778 treatment-naïve HCC patients treated by RFA as the first-line treatment. We developed a transformer-based machine learning model to predict the overall survival in the HCC patients treated by RFA and compared its predictive performance with that of a deep learning-based model. Model performance was evaluated by determining the Harrel's c-index and validated externally by the split-sample method.

RESULTS

The Harrel's c-index of the transformer-based model was 0.69, indicating its better discrimination performance than that of the deep learning model (Harrel's c-index, 0.60) in the external validation cohort. The transformer model showed a high discriminative ability for stratifying the external validation cohort into two or three different risk groups (p < 0.001 for both risk groupings). The model also enabled output of a personalized cumulative recurrence prediction curve for each patient.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a novel transformer model for personalized prediction of the overall survival in HCC patients after RFA treatment. The current model may offer a personalized survival prediction schema for patients with HCC undergoing RFA treatment.

Predicting cancer-specific mortality in T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation by competing risk nomogram: A population-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is one of the primary treatment methods for T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk factors after RFA remain controversial. This study aims to identify the key factors associated with cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in patients with T1/2 HCC after RFA using competing risk analysis and to establish a prognostic nomogram for improved clinical management.

METHODS

A total of 2,135 T1/2 HCC patients treated with RFA were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly categorized into training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with CSM and construct a competing risk nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance indices (C-indexes), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to evaluate the predictive efficiency and clinical applicability of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. Patients were stratified according to their nomogram score, and the different risk groups were compared using cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves and Gray's validation .

RESULTS

The 5-year CSM rate for HCC patients treated with RFA was 30.1 %. Grade, tumor size, tumor number, cirrhosis, and AFP level were identified as independent risk factors for CSM. A prognostic nomogram was developed based on these risk factors. The time-dependent C-indexes (0.65) were greater than those of the AJCC stage model (0.55) during the 12 to 60 months of follow-up. The calibration plots of the competing risk nomograms demonstrated excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram predictions. ROC analyses showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values in both the training and validation cohorts were all greater than 0.63 and exceeded those of the AJCC stage model. DCA demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Patients were classified into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram scores, with the high-risk group showing significantly higher CSM rates after RFA compared to the other two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified Grade, AFP, cirrhosis, tumor size, and tumor number as independent risk factors associated with CSM. The competing risk nomogram exhibited high performance in predicting the probability of CSM for HCC patients undergoing RFA.

Radiomics of Preoperative Multi-Sequence Magnetic Resonance Imaging Can Improve the Predictive Performance of Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

The aim of the study is to demonstrate that radiomics of preoperative multi-sequence magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can indeed improve the predictive performance of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A total of 206 patients with pathologically confirmed HCC who underwent preoperative enhanced MRI were retrospectively recruited. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the independent clinicoradiologic predictors of MVI present and constituted the clinicoradiologic model. Recursive feature elimination (RFE) was applied to select radiomics features (extracted from six sequence images) and constructed the radiomics model. Clinicoradiologic model plus radiomics model formed the clinicoradiomics model. Five-fold cross-validation was used to validate the three models. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were used to evaluate the performance. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the prediction accuracy between models.

Results

The clinicoradiologic model contained alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)_lg10, radiological capsule enhancement, enhancement pattern and arterial peritumoral enhancement, which were independent risk factors of MVI. There were 18 radiomics features related to MVI constructed the radiomics model. The mean area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of clinicoradiologic, radiomics and clinicoradiomics model were 0.849, 0.925 and 0.950 in the training cohort and 0.846, 0.907 and 0.933 in the validation cohort, respectively. The three models' calibration curves fitted well, and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical usefulness. Compared with the clinicoradiologic model, the NRI of radiomics and clinicoradiomics model increased significantly by 0.575 and 0.825, respectively, and the IDI increased significantly by 0.280 and 0.398, respectively.

Conclusions

Radiomics of preoperative multi-sequence MRI can improve the predictive performance of MVI in HCC.

Multidisciplinary Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in 2023: Italian practice Treatment Guidelines of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery (AICEP), Italian Association of Hospital Gastroenterologists (AIGO), Italian Association of Radiology and Clinical Oncology (AIRO), Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (SIAPeC-IAP), Italian Society of Surgery (SIC), Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE), Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), Italian Organ Transplant Society (SITO), and Association of Patients with Hepatitis and Liver Disease (EpaC) - Part I - Surgical treatments

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. The remarkable improvements in treating HCC achieved in the last years have increased the complexity of HCC management. Following the need to have updated guidelines on the multidisciplinary treatment management of HCC, the Italian Scientific Societies involved in the management of this cancer have promoted the drafting of a new dedicated document. This document was drawn up according to the GRADE methodology needed to produce guidelines based on evidence. Here is presented the first part of guidelines, focused on the multidisciplinary tumor board of experts and surgical treatments of HCC.

Liver Lesions at Risk of Transformation into Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Patients: Hepatobiliary Phase Hypointense Nodules without Arterial Phase Hyperenhancement

Recent technical advances in liver imaging and surveillance for patients at high risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have led to an increase in the detection of borderline hepatic nodules in the gray area of multistep carcinogenesis, particularly in those that are hypointense at the hepatobiliary phase (HBP) and do not show arterial phase hyperenhancement. Given their potential to transform and advance into hypervascular HCC, these nodules have progressively attracted the interest of the scientific community. To date, however, no shared guidelines have been established for the decision management of these borderline hepatic nodules. It is therefore extremely important to identify features that indicate the malignant potential of these nodules and the likelihood of vascularization. In fact, a more complete knowledge of their history and evolution would allow outlining shared guidelines for their clinical-surgical management, to implement early treatment programs and decide between a preventive curative treatment or a watchful follow-up. This review aims to summarize the current knowledge on hepatic borderline nodules, particularly focusing on those imaging features which are hypothetically correlated with their malignant evolution, and to discuss current guidelines and ongoing management in clinical practice.

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of selective internal radiotherapy and sorafenib alone or combined for hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is a developing technique and its efficacy and modality of application in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still controversial. This network meta-analysis aims to determine whether the efficacy and safety of SIRT alone and in combination are superior to that of sorafenib.

METHODS

Four databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) were searched before August 2022. Cochrane Randomized Trial Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale were used to assess the quality. The outcomes of interest included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and adverse events (AEs).

RESULTS

A total of 9 eligible trials involving 1954 patients were included, and SIRT ranked first among the three treatment modalities in terms of both OS (probability, 52.3%) and PFS (probability, 68.6%). The combination of SIRT and sorafenib did not improve OS or PFS in patients with HCC. Although the combination of SIRT and sorafenib did not raise the risk of grade 3 or higher AEs, it may have introduced more AEs than either alone.

CONCLUSIONS

SIRT alone was found to be superior to sorafenib and the combination of the two in improving OS or PFS in patients with non-surgical HCC, especially in patients with combined portal vein tumor thrombus. The AEs induced by SIRT were different from those of sorafenib, but the overall toxicity was manageable, the combination of the two may cause an increase in the types of AEs that occur.

Landscape of alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the last 15 years highlights the need to expand surveillance programs

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol abuse and metabolic disorders are leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Alcohol-related aetiology is associated with a worse prognosis compared with viral agents, because of the lower percentage of patients diagnosed with HCC under routine surveillance and a higher burden of comorbidity in alcohol abusers. This study aimed to describe the evolving clinical scenario of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years (2006-2020) in Italy.

METHODS

Data from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) registry were used: 1,391 patients were allocated to three groups based on the year of HCC diagnosis (2006-2010; 2011-2015; 2016-2020). Patient characteristics, HCC treatment, and overall survival were compared among groups. Survival predictors were also investigated.

RESULTS

Approximately 80% of alcohol-related HCCs were classified as cases of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease. Throughout the quinquennia, <50% of HCCs were detected by surveillance programmes. The tumour burden at diagnosis was slightly reduced but not enough to change the distribution of the ITA.LI.CA cancer stages. Intra-arterial and targeted systemic therapies increased across quinquennia. A modest improvement in survival was observed in the last quinquennia, particularly after 12 months of patient observation. Cancer stage, HCC treatment, and presence of oesophageal varices were independent predictors of survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past 15 years, modest improvements have been obtained in outcomes of alcohol-related HCC, attributed mainly to underuse of surveillance programmes and the consequent low amenability to curative treatments. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease is a widespread condition in alcohol abusers, but its presence did not show a pivotal prognostic role once HCC had developed. Instead, the presence of oesophageal varices, an independent poor prognosticator, should be considered in patient management and refining of prognostic systems.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Alcohol abuse is a leading and growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide and is associated with a worse prognosis compared with other aetiologies. We assessed the evolutionary landscape of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years in Italy. A high cumulative prevalence (78%) of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, with signs of metabolic dysfunction, was observed in HCC patients with unhealthy excessive alcohol consumption. The alcohol + metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease condition tended to progressively increase over time. A modest improvement in survival occurred over the study period, likely because of the persistent underuse of surveillance programmes and, consequently, the lack of improvement in the cancer stage at diagnosis and the patients' eligibility for curative treatments. Alongside the known prognostic factors for HCC (cancer stage and treatment), the presence of oesophageal varices was an independent predictor of poor survival, suggesting that this clinical feature should be carefully considered in patient management and should be included in prognostic systems/scores for HCC to improve their performance.

Risk of parenterally transmitted hepatitis following exposure to invasive procedures in Italy: SEIEVA surveillance 2000-2021

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Surgical interventions and invasive diagnostic/therapeutic procedures are known routes of transmission of viral hepatitis. Using data from the Italian surveillance system for acute viral hepatitis (SEIEVA), the aim of this study was to investigate the association between specific types of invasive procedures and the risk of acute HBV and HCV infections.

METHODS

Data from SEIEVA (period 2000-2021) were used. The association between acute HBV and HCV infection and potential risk factors, i.e. surgical interventions and diagnostic/therapeutic procedures (given according to the ICD-9-CM classification), was investigated in comparison to age-matched hepatitis A cases, used as controls, by conditional multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 8,176 cases with acute HBV, 2,179 with acute HCV, and the respective age-matched controls with acute HAV infection were selected for the main analysis. Most of the procedures evaluated were associated with the risk of acquiring HBV or HCV. The strongest associations for HBV infection were: gynaecological surgery (odds ratio [OR] 5.19; 95% CI 1.12-24.05), otorhinolaryngological surgery (OR 3.78; 95% CI 1.76-8.09), and cardiac/thoracic surgery (OR 3.52; 95% CI 1.34-9.23); while for HCV infection, they were: neurosurgery (OR 11.88; 95% CI 2.40-58.85), otorhinolaryngological surgery (OR 11.54; 95% CI 2.55-52.24), and vascular surgery (OR 9.52; 95% CI 3.25-27.87). Hepatitis C was also strongly associated with ophthalmological surgery (OR 8.32; 95% CI 2.24-30.92). Biopsy and/or endoscopic procedures were significantly associated with both HCV (OR 3.84; 95% CI 2.47-5.95) and, to a lesser extent, HBV infection (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.16-1.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the progress made in recent years, invasive procedures still represent a significant risk factor for acquiring parenterally transmitted hepatitis viruses, thus explaining the still numerous and unexpected cases diagnosed among the elderly population in Italy. Our results underline the importance of observing universal precautions to control the iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis viruses.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Cases of parenterally transmitted acute viral hepatitis in the elderly population, that are difficult to explain based on the most widely recognised risk factors, continue to be diagnosed in Italy. Based on the Italian SEIEVA surveillance of acute viral hepatitis data, this study highlights an increased risk of acquiring hepatitis B and C following exposure to invasive procedures, which might explain the observed cases in elderly individuals. Furthermore, this finding emphasises the need to observe universal precautions strictly, in healthcare settings, including in the case of minor surgical procedures.

Ablative margins in percutaneous thermal ablation of hepatic tumors: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to systematically review current evidence on ablative margins and correlation to local tumor progression (LTP) after thermal ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in PubMed (MEDLINE) and Web of Science to identify all studies that reported on ablative margins (AM) and related LTP rates. Studies were assessed for risk of bias and synthesized separately per tumor type. Where possible, results were pooled to calculate risk differences (RD) as function of AM.

RESULTS

In total, 2910 articles were identified of which 43 articles were eligible for final analysis. There was high variability in AM measurement methodology across studies in terms of measurement technique, imaging modalities, and timing. Most common margin stratification was < 5 mm and > 5 mm, for which data were available in 25/43 studies (58%). Of these, all studies favored AM > 5 mm to reduce the risk of LTP, with absolute RD of 16% points for HCC and 47% points for CRLM as compared to AM < 5 mm.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence supports AM > 5 mm to reduce the risk of LTP after thermal ablation of HCC and CRLM. However, standardization of AM measurement and reporting is critical to allow future meta-analyses and improved identification of optimal threshold value for clinical use.

Infectious Agents Induce Wnt/β-Catenin Pathway Deregulation in Primary Liver Cancers

Interaction between infectious agents and liver tissue, as well as repeated and extreme biological events beyond adaptive capacities, may result in pathological conditions predisposing people to development of primary liver cancers (PLCs). In adults, PLCs mainly comprise hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Various infectious agents in the hepatic microenvironment can destabilize normal liver cell functions by modulating the Wnt/β-catenin pathway components. Among them, hepatotropic viruses B, C, and D are involved in Wnt/β-catenin signaling dysregulation. Other microbial agents, including oncogenic viruses such as Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human papilloma virus (HPV), bacteria, e.g., Mycoplasma hyorhinis and Salmonella Typhi, the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii, the fungus Aspergillus flavus, and liver flukes such as Clonorchissinensis or Opisthorchis viverrini, may induce malignant transformation in hepatocytes or in target cells of the biliary tract through aberrant Wnt signaling activation. This review focuses on new insights into infectious agents implicated in the deregulation of Wnt signaling and PLC development. Since the Wnt/β-catenin pathway is a driver of cancer following viral and bacterial infections, molecules inhibiting the complex axis of Wnt signaling could represent novel therapeutic approaches in PLC treatment.

Pathogenesis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Interplay of Apoptosis and Autophagy

The pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a multifactorial process that has not yet been fully investigated. Autophagy and apoptosis are two important cellular pathways that are critical for cell survival or death. The balance between apoptosis and autophagy regulates liver cell turnover and maintains intracellular homeostasis. However, the balance is often dysregulated in many cancers, including HCC. Autophagy and apoptosis pathways may be either independent or parallel or one may influence the other. Autophagy may either inhibit or promote apoptosis, thus regulating the fate of the liver cancer cells. In this review, a concise overview of the pathogenesis of HCC is presented, with emphasis on new developments, including the role of endoplasmic reticulum stress, the implication of microRNAs and the role of gut microbiota. The characteristics of HCC associated with a specific liver disease are also described and a brief description of autophagy and apoptosis is provided. The role of autophagy and apoptosis in the initiation, progress and metastatic potential is reviewed and the experimental evidence indicating an interplay between the two is extensively analyzed. The role of ferroptosis, a recently described specific pathway of regulated cell death, is presented. Finally, the potential therapeutic implications of autophagy and apoptosis in drug resistance are examined.

Blood biomarkers predict outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with immune checkpoint Inhibitors: A pooled analysis of 44 retrospective sudies

OBJECTIVE

We conducted the first meta-analysis to identify the predictive significance of baseline blood biomarkers (such as neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), early alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), AFP, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), protein induced by vitamin K absence II (PIVKA-II), and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR)) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs).

METHODS

Eligible articles were retrieved using PubMed, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Google Scholar by November 24, 2022. Clinical outcomes were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and hyperprogressive disease (HPD).

RESULTS

A total of 44 articles with 5322 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled results demonstrated that patients with high NLR levels had significantly poorer OS (HR: 1.951, P < 0.001) and PFS (HR: 1.632, P < 0.001), lower ORR (OR: 0.484, P < 0.001) and DCR (OR: 0.494, P = 0.027), and higher HPD (OR: 8.190, P < 0.001). The patients with high AFP levels had shorter OS (HR: 1.689, P < 0.001) and PFS (HR: 1.380, P < 0.001), and lower DCR (OR: 0.440, P < 0.001) than those with low AFP levels, however, there was no difference in ORR (OR: 0.963, P = 0.933). We also found that early AFP response was correlated with better OS (HR: 0.422, P < 0.001) and PFS (HR: 0.385, P < 0.001), higher ORR (OR: 7.297, P < 0.001) and DCR (OR: 13.360, P < 0.001) compared to non-responders. Besides, a high ALBI grade was significantly related to shorter OS (HR: 2.440, P = 0.009) and PFS (HR: 1.373, P = 0.022), lower ORR (OR: 0.618, P = 0.032) and DCR (OR: 0.672, P = 0.049) than those with an ALBI grade 1.

CONCLUSION

The NLR, early AFP response, and ALBI were useful predictors of outcomes in HCC patients treated with ICIs.

From NAFLD to MAFLD: Definition, Pathophysiological Basis and Cardiovascular Implications

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is defined as a chronic liver disease characterized by excessive fat accumulation in the liver without another obvious cause (no excessive alcohol consumption, hepatotoxic medications, toxins, viral infections, genetic hepatic diseases), therefore it is an exclusion diagnosis. The term NAFLD literally refers to non-alcohol related hepatopathy and does not adequately correlate with metabolic dysfunction and related cardiovascular risks. Therefore, researchers and scientific societies have moved towards changing the terminology. The novel nomenclature for a metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has been proposed in 2020 by a group of experts to overcome the issues related to the old terminology. The diagnosis of MAFLD is based on the presence of hepatic steatosis and at least one between these three conditions: type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity or metabolic dysregulation. MAFLD has been shown to be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and atherosclerosis. It is better related to the main risk factors for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases than NAFLD, such as dyslipidemia, T2DM and hypertension. The aim of this review is to highlight the reasons why the term NAFLD is moving to the term MAFLD, what are the conceptual basis of this choice and its clinical implications, particularly in the cardiovascular field.

Assessment of clinico-epidemiological profile of Hepatocellular carcinoma in the last two decades

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma represents 85%—90% of primary liver tumors; it represents the 2nd leading cause of cancer-related death all over the world. There is a growing incidence of HCC worldwide and similarly, the incidence of HCC has almost doubled over the last decade in Egypt.

Aim of the work

To assess clinico-epidemiological character of HCC in the last two decades and to compare between the first and second decade regarding these characters.

Patients and methods

This retrospective study included 497 HCC patients’ data collected from Clinical Oncology and Nuclear Medicine Department from 1999 to 2019, HCC patients were classified into 1st decade (from 1999 to 2009) and 2nd decade (2010 – 2019). Diagnosis of HCC was based on clinical, laboratory, (AFP), and radiological examinations (The abdominal US and triphasic CT scan).

Results

The study revealed that the average age of HCC cases was 57 years, the majority of these were males (88%), residents in rural areas (70%), about one-fourth of them, were smokers (26.4%), DM was present in 14% of these while only 7% were hypertension. Thirty presents (30%) of them were represented by ascites and (20%) by hepatic encephalopathy of different grades. The majority of HCC patients (92.2%) have HCV Abs positive. HBS Ag was positive in 2.4% while mixed infection (HCV Abs + ve and HBS Ag + ve) was in 2% of patients only. The median level of AFP was 300 ng/ml.

The severity of underlying chronic liver disease was assessed by the Child–Pugh score the mean score was 7.5 (from 6–11) and the MELD score (the mean score was 18.8 (from 6–29).

Regarding tumor characteristics, HCC mass was located in the Right lobe of the liver in (63.8%), in the left lobe in (26.6%) and both lobes were affected in 9.6%. A single focal hepatic lesion was detected in about 60% of patients, 3 focal lesions in about 20%, and two focal lesions or multifocal HCC in the remaining percent. The median size of the largest tumor’s diameter was 5 cm by the US and 5.3 cm by the triphasic CT. PVT, vascular invasion, LN, and distant metastasis were detected in (35.6%), (40%), (40%) and (54%) of patients respectively. In less than one-third of HCC cases, the tumors were within Milan criteria (30%).

Conclusion

The 1st decade showed a significantly higher frequency of patients presented with marked splenomegaly and splenectomy, while the second decade showed a significantly higher frequency in patients who reside in rural areas. Higher frequency of DM, advanced hepatic encephalopathy grade III/ IV, and unfortunately more aggressive tumors with PVT, vascular invasion, LN metastasis, and distant metastasis were detected in the 2nd decade.

Identification of molecular subtypes and prognostic signatures based on transient receptor potential channel-related genes to predict the prognostic risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: A review

Abnormal transient receptor potential (TRP) channel function interferes with intracellular calcium-based signaling and causes malignant phenotypes. However, the effects of TRP channel-related genes on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear. This study aimed to identify HCC molecular subtypes and prognostic signatures based on TRP channel-related genes to predict prognostic risks. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering was applied to identify HCC molecular subtypes using the expression data of TRP channel-related genes. This was followed by a comparison of the clinical and immune microenvironment characteristics between the resulting subtypes. After screening for differentially expressed genes among subtypes, prognostic signatures were identified to construct risk score-based prognostic and nomogram models and predict HCC survival. Finally, tumor drug sensitivities were predicted and compared between the risk groups. Sixteen TRP channel-related genes that were differentially expressed between HCC and non-tumorous tissues were used to identify 2 subtypes. Cluster 1 had higher TRP scores, better survival status, and lower levels of clinical malignancy. Immune-related analyses also revealed higher infiltration of M1 macrophages and higher immune and stromal scores in Cluster 1 than in Cluster 2. After screening differentially expressed genes between subtypes, 6 prognostic signatures were identified to construct prognostic and nomogram models. The potential of these models to assess the prognostic risk of HCC was further validated. Furthermore, Cluster 1 was more distributed in the low-risk group, with higher drug sensitivities. Two HCC subtypes were identified, of which Cluster 1 was associated with a favorable prognosis. Prognostic signatures related to TRP channel genes and molecular subtypes can be used to predict HCC risk.

Emerging treatment strategies in hepatobiliary cancer

INTRODUCTION

There have been significant advances in the treatment of hepatobiliary cancers, especially for advanced-stage disease. However, data is limited for optimal therapy selection in the first line and sequencing of available options.

AREAS COVERED

This review covers the systemic treatment of hepatobiliary cancers with an emphasis on the advanced stage. The previously published and ongoing trials will be discussed to create an algorithm for the current practice and to give future perspectives on how the field could go forward.

EXPERT OPINION

While there is no standard-of-care option in the adjuvant treatment of hepatocellular cancer, capecitabine is the standard of care for biliary tract cancer. The efficacy of adjuvant gemcitabine and cisplatin and the added benefit of radiotherapy to chemotherapy are yet to be defined. For the advanced stage, immunotherapy-based combinations became the standard of care for both hepatocellular and biliary tract cancers. The molecularly targeted therapy has profoundly changed the second-line and later treatment for biliary tract cancers, while the optimal second-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular cancer is yet to be defined due to rapid advances in the first-line setting.

The relationship between the use of metformin and the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

We aim to evaluate the relationship between the use of metformin and the risk of pancreatic cancer in type 2 diabetes patients.

METHOD

We systematically searched the observational studies on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, clinicalrials.gov, and CNKI databases, extracted relevant data, combined the OR value and 95% CI using the random effect model, and conducted a sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression to evaluate the size and stability of this relationship.

RESULT

Twenty-nine studies from twenty-four articles met our inclusion criteria, including more than 2 million subjects. Overall analysis showed that compared with no use of metformin, the use of metformin could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes (OR = 0.82, 95% CI (0.69, 0.98)). Subgroup analysis showed that compared with the use of hypoglycemic drugs, the use of metformin could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes (OR = 0.79, 95% CI (0.66, 0.94)). However, compared with no drugs or only diet therapy, metformin users might increase the risk of pancreatic cancer (OR = 2.19, 95% CI (1.08, 4.44)). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the study, and there was no significant publication bias.

CONCLUSION

Compared with the no-use of metformin, metformin users with diabetes can reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer. More research is needed to prove it works.

Roles of hypoxia-inducible factor in hepatocellular carcinoma under local ablation therapies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common digestive malignancies. HCC It ranges as the fifth most common cause of cancer mortality worldwide. While The prognosis of metastatic or advanced HCC is still quite poor. Recently, locoregional treatment, especially local ablation therapies, plays an important role in the treatment of HCC. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation are the most common-used methods effective and feasible for treating HCC. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the actions of ablation in the treatments for HCC and the HCC recurrence after ablation still are poorly understood. Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF), the key gene switch for adaptive responses to hypoxia, has been found to play an essential role in the rapid aggressive recurrence of HCC after ablation treatment. In this review, we summarized the current evidence of the roles of HIF in the treatment of HCC with ablation. Fifteen relevant studies were included and further analyzed. Among them, three clinical studies suggested that HIF-1α might serve as a crucial role in the RAF treatment of HCC or the local recurrence of HCC after RFA. The remainder included experimental studies demonstrated that HIF-1, 2α might target the different molecules (e.g., BNIP3, CA-IX, and arginase-1) and signaling cascades (e.g., VEGFA/EphA2 pathway), constituting a complex network that promoted HCC invasion and metastasis after ablation. Currently, the inhibitors of HIF have been developed, providing important proof of targeting HIF for the prevention of HCC recurrence after IRFA and HIFU ablation. Further confirmation by prospective clinical and in-depth experimental studies is still warranted to illustrate the effects of HIF in HCC recurrence followed ablation treatment in the future.

Efficacy and Safety of PD-1/PD-L1 Checkpoint Inhibitors versus Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Combined with Other Therapies for Tumors: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

In recent years, the anti-programmed cell death protein-1 and its ligand (PD-1/PD-L1) or combination therapies have been recommended as an alternative emerging choice of treatment for oncology patients. However, the efficacy and adverse events of different combination strategies for the treatment of tumors remain controversial.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), and the European Society of Medicine Oncology (ESMO) were searched from database inception until 16 February 2022. The endpoints of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and adverse events (AEs) were analyzed from different treatment schemes and tumor types. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022328927).

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included forty-eight eligible studies. Combination therapy has improved ORR (RR = 1.40, p < 0.001), DCR (RR = 1.22, p < 0.001), and PFS (the median survival ratio (MSR) was estimated to be 1.475 p < 0.001) compared to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 but had no significant benefit on OS (MSR was estimated to be 1.086 p = 0.117). Besides, combination treatment strategies are more toxic in any grade AEs (RR = 1.13, p < 0.001) and grade 3-5 AEs (RR = 1.81, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in combination with other antitumor therapies improve patients' ORR, DCR, and PFS compared to anti-PD-1/PD-L1. However, it is regrettable that there is no benefit to OS and an increased risk of AEs in combinatorial therapies.

eIF4A1 Is a Prognostic Marker and Actionable Target in Human Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary liver tumor with high lethality and increasing incidence worldwide. While tumor resection or liver transplantation is effective in the early stages of the disease, the therapeutic options for advanced HCC remain limited and the benefits are temporary. Thus, novel therapeutic targets and more efficacious treatments against this deadly cancer are urgently needed. Here, we investigated the pathogenetic and therapeutic role of eukaryotic initiation factor 4A1 (eIF4A1) in this tumor type. We observed consistent eIF4A1 upregulation in HCC lesions compared with non-tumorous surrounding liver tissues. In addition, eIF4A1 levels were negatively correlated with the prognosis of HCC patients. In HCC lines, the exposure to various eIF4A inhibitors triggered a remarkable decline in proliferation and augmented apoptosis, paralleled by the inhibition of several oncogenic pathways. Significantly, anti-growth effects were achieved at nanomolar concentrations of the eIF4A1 inhibitors and were further increased by the simultaneous administration of the pan mTOR inhibitor, Rapalink-1. In conclusion, our results highlight the pathogenetic relevance of eIF4A1 in HCC and recommend further evaluation of the potential usefulness of pharmacological combinations based on eIF4A and mTOR inhibitors in treating this aggressive tumor.

Role of Etiology in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Lenvatinib: A Counterfactual Event-Based Mediation Analysis

Background: Whether the etiology of underlying liver disease represents a prognostic factor in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with lenvatinib is still a matter of debate. This study investigates whether the viral etiology of HCC plays a prognostic role in overall survival (OS). Methods: Data derived from a multicenter series of 313 HCC patients treated with lenvatinib between 2019 and 2022 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed using the Kaplan−Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. We performed an event-based counterfactual mediation analysis to estimate direct (chronic inflammation and immunosuppression), indirect (tobacco smoking, alcohol use, illicit drug abuse with injections), and the total effect of viral etiology on OS. Results were expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI. Results: Median OS was 21 months (95% CI: 20−23) in the group with other etiologies and 15 months (14−16) in the group with viral etiology (p < 0.0001). The total effect of viral etiology was associated with OS (HR 2.76, 1.32−5.21), and it was mainly explained by the pure direct effect of viral etiology (HR 2.74, 1.15−4.45). By contrast, its total indirect effect was not associated with poorer survival (HR 1.05, 0.82−2.13). These results were confirmed when considering tobacco, alcohol consumption, or injection drug abuse as potential mediators. Median progression-free survival was 9 months (8−10) in patients with other etiologies and 6 months (5−7) in patients with viral etiology (p < 0.0001). No difference in terms of adverse event rate was observed between the two groups. Conclusions: Patients affected by HCC with nonviral etiology treated with lenvatinib exhibit longer survival than those with viral etiology. This finding may have relevance in the treatment decision-making process.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined With PD-1 Inhibitors Plus Lenvatinib Showed Improved Efficacy for Treatment of Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Compared With PD-1 Inhibitors Plus Lenvatinib

Background: Programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors combined with lenvatinib have become a popular treatment option for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. Transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors and lenvatinib has also shown preliminary efficacy in the unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. We conducted this observational, retrospective, cohort study to compare the clinical outcomes and safety of transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib versus programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods: Between November 2019 and November 2021, patients who were diagnosed with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma and received transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib or programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib treatment were reviewed for eligibility. The primary endpoints included objective response rate, overall survival, and progression-free survival. The secondary endpoint was the frequency of key adverse events. Results: In total, 105 patients were eligible for the present study, and they were divided into the transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group (n = 46) and the programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group (n = 59). The patient cohort after a one-to-one propensity score matching (n = 86) was also analyzed. The transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group had a higher objective response rate both in the patient cohort before propensity score matching (54.3% vs 25.4%, P = .002) and after propensity score matching (55.8% vs 30.2%, P = .017). The patients in the transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group had prolonged overall survival (median, 20.5 vs 12.6 months, P = .015) and progression-free survival (median, 10.2 vs 7.4 months, P = .035). For patient cohort- propensity score matching, the overall survival (20.5 vs 12.8 months, P = .013) and progression-free survival (12.1 vs 7.8 months, P = .030) were also significantly better in the transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group than in the programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib group. There were no significant differences between the 2 groups concerning adverse reactions caused by immunotherapy and lenvatinib. The adverse reactions caused by transarterial chemoembolization were transient and were quickly reversed. Conclusions: Compared to programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib, transarterial chemoembolization combined with programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors plus lenvatinib may provide better treatment response and survival benefits for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, and the adverse events were manageable.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC.

RESULTS

MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Holistic management of hepatocellular carcinoma: The hepatologist's comprehensive playbook

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication in patients with chronic liver disease and leads to significant morbidity and mortality. Liver disease and liver cancer are preventable by mitigating and managing common risk factors, including chronic hepatitis B and C infection, alcohol use, diabetes, obesity and other components of the metabolic syndrome. The management of patients with HCC requires treatment of the malignancy and adequate control of the underlying liver disease, as preserving liver function is critical for successful cancer treatment and may have a relevant prognostic role independent of HCC management. Hepatologists are the ideal providers to guide the care of patients with HCC as they are trained to identify patients at risk, apply appropriate surveillance strategies, assess and improve residual liver function, evaluate candidacy for transplant, provide longitudinal care to optimize and preserve liver function during and after HCC treatment, survey for cancer recurrence and manage its risk factors, and prevent and treat decompensating events. We highlight the need for a team-based holistic approach to the patient with liver disease and HCC and identify necessary gaps in current care and knowledge.

Comparisons of Viral Etiology and Outcomes of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Liver Resection between Taiwan and Vietnam

Epidemiologic data have suggested that etiologic variations of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exist in different geographic areas, and might be associated with different outcomes. We compared the viral etiology, clinicopathological characteristics and surgical outcomes between 706 Taiwanese and 1704 Vietnamese patients with HCC undergoing liver resection. Vietnamese patients had a significantly higher ratio of hepatitis B virus (HBV) (p < 0.001) and a lower ratio of hepatitis C virus (HCV) (p < 0.001) and non-B non-C than Taiwanese patients. Among patients with HBV or non-B non-C, the mean age was younger in Vietnam than in Taiwan (p < 0.001, p = 0.001, respectively). The HCC patients in Vietnam had significantly higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels (p < 0.001), larger tumors (p < 0.001), and a higher ratio of macrovascular invasion (p < 0.001) and extrahepatic metastasis (p < 0.001), compared to those in Taiwan. Patients treated in Vietnam had a higher tumor recurrent rate (p < 0.001), but no difference in overall survival was found between both groups. In subgroup analysis, the recurrent rate of HCC was the highest in patients with dual HBV/HCV, followed by HCV or HBV, and non-B non-C (p < 0.001). In conclusion, although the viral etiology and clinicopathological characteristics of HCC differed, postoperative overall survival was comparable between patients in Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Evolving Scenario in the Assessment of Radiological Response for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Era of Immunotherapy: Strengths and Weaknesses of Surrogate Endpoints

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a challenging malignancy characterised by clinical and biological heterogeneity, independent of the stage. Despite the application of surveillance programs, a substantial proportion of patients are diagnosed at advanced stages when curative treatments are no longer available. The landscape of systemic therapies has been rapidly growing over the last decade, and the advent of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has changed the paradigm of systemic treatments. The coexistence of the tumour with underlying cirrhosis exposes patients with HCC to competing events related to tumour progression and/or hepatic decompensation. Therefore, it is relevant to adopt proper clinical endpoints to assess the extent of treatment benefit. While overall survival (OS) is the most accepted endpoint for phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and drug approval, it is affected by many limitations. To overcome these limits, several clinical and radiological outcomes have been used. For instance, progression-free survival (PFS) is a useful endpoint to evaluate the benefit of sequential treatments, since it is not influenced by post-progression treatments, unlike OS. Moreover, radiological endpoints such as time to progression (TTP) and objective response rate (ORR) are frequently adopted. Nevertheless, the surrogacy between these endpoints and OS in the setting of unresectable HCC (uHCC) remains uncertain. Since most of the surrogate endpoints are radiology-based (e.g., PFS, TTP, ORR), the use of standardised tools is crucial for the evaluation of radiological response. The optimal way to assess the radiological response has been widely debated, and many criteria have been proposed over the years. Furthermore, none of the criteria have been validated for immunotherapy in advanced HCC. The coexistence of the underlying chronic liver disease and the access to several lines of treatments highlight the urgent need to capture early clinical benefit and the need for standardised radiological criteria to assess cancer response when using ICIs in mono- or combination therapies. Here, we review the most commonly used clinical and radiological endpoints for trial design, as well as their surrogacy with OS. We also review the criteria for radiological response to treatments for HCC, analysing the major issues and the potential future perspectives.

Second-line treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma: current state and challenges for the future

INTRODUCTION

Since the approval of sorafenib for systemic treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), many tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have shown efficacy and tolerability as first-line treatments. On the other hand, these first-line therapies are associated with low objective response and drug resistance. Many drugs have been successfully tested for second-line treatment of advanced HCC. While the rapid proliferation of second-line treatments for advanced HCC brings hope to patients, it also complicates clinical decision-making.

AREAS COVERED

This review aims to facilitate decisions by summarizing the latest guidelines for second-line treatment of HCC in various countries or regions. We then review existing second-line treatment options and discuss challenges that should be addressed in the future. A literature search was conducted in April 2022 of PubMed/Medline, Cochrane library, and abstracts of international cancer meetings.

EXPERT OPINION

There is no standard second-line treatment, especially for the case of sequential treatment after atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo+bev) and further studies focused on sequential treatment are warranted in this setting. The design of clinical trials, different etiologies, and complications or quality of life (QoL) are interesting issues in the second-line setting.

Predictive Power of Tissue and Circulating Biomarkers for the Severity of Biopsy-Validated Chronic Liver Diseases

Background: Although liver biopsy remains the gold standard for the diagnosis and the monitoring of liver disease, non-invasive biomarkers have been recently suggested to predict liver disease severity, progression, and response to therapy. We investigated multiple tissue and circulating markers of angiogenesis in predicting the severity of biopsy-validated chronic liver diseases in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) and in NAFLD/NASH patients. Methods: We studied samples from forty-six patients with HCV and/or NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, liver ultrasonography, and liver stiffness measurement. Ishak and Brunt scores were calculated. Expression of selective genes and luminex analyses of 17 different circulating pro-angiogenic factors were performed. Results: The phenotype of NAFLD/NASH or HCV subjects was similar, except for insulin, which was expressed at higher levels in NAFLD/NASH patients. A Mann−Whitney test showed significant differences for the circulating levels of HB-EGF and for follistatin between HCV and NAFLD/NASH patients. In HCV patients, we found an inverse correlation between disease stage and BMP-9 and VEGF-A circulating levels, while in NASH/NAFLD direct correlations between stage and BMP-9 and VEGF-A circulating levels were noted. The K-means algorithm divided HCV and NASH/NAFLD patients in two clusters with significant differences between them. Logistic regression models showed a positive relationship with BMP-9 levels for NASH/NAFLD and with HB-EGF circulating concentrations for HCV. ROC analysis showed for BMP-9 > 1188 pg/mL a worse disease in NASH/NAFLD, whereas for HB-EGF < 61 pg/mL a higher severity of disease in HCV. Conclusion: Our data show that circulating biomarker profiles can identify the severity of chronic liver disease of NAFLD/NASH or HCV origin.

Characteristics and survival of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and contemporary data pertaining large populations of patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are missing.

AIM

To describe main characteristics and outcome of PBC patients with HCC diagnosed in the new millennium.

METHODS

Analysing the Italian Liver Cancer registry we identified 80 PBC patients with HCC diagnosed after the year 2000, and described their clinical characteristics, access to treatment and survival.

RESULTS

Median age of patients was 71 years and 50.0% were males. Cirrhosis was present in 86.3% of patients, being well-compensated in 58.0%. Median HCC diameter was smaller in patients under surveillance (2.6 vs 4.0 cm, P = 0.007). Curative treatment, feasible in 50.0% of patients, was associated with improved survival compared to palliative and supportive care (42 vs 33 vs 6 months, P<0.0001). Surveillance was associated with a non-significant improved survival (36 vs 23 months), likely due to similar rate of curative treatment in patients under (51.4%) and outside surveillance (42.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

PBC patients with HCC are often elderly males with well-preserved liver function. Feasibility of curative treatment is high and associated with improved prognosis. Description of these patients may help focus surveillance to identify earlier tumours, increase their curability, and improve prognosis.

Advances in metformin for the treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in children

INTRODUCTION

The increased economic and social burdens for NAFLD worldwide make treating such a disease a significant public health issue. Metformin, a kind of insulin sensitizer generally used to treat type 2 diabetes, has been recently found to have efficacy on children's NAFLD in various areas such as glucolipid metabolism, intestinal bacterial metabolism, oxidative stress, and anti-inflammatory response. This article aims to provide an overview of the possible mechanisms of NAFLD in children and the potential therapeutic application of metformin.

AREAS COVERED

The Cochrane Library, PubMed, Scopus, and EMBASE database was systematically searched on 12 April 2022, using the keywords metformin; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; and children to identify similar studies. An additional search for recently published research was performed in June 2020.

EXPERT OPINION

Although metformin has been proved to have an excellent therapeutic effect on children's NAFLD; we can still explore its potential impacts and mechanisms from different angles, such as combined medication. At the same time, we should also pay attention to its side effects.

Changing epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asia

Liver cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the second leading cause of malignant death in Asia, and Asia reports 72.5% of the world's cases in 2020. As the most common histological type, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of incidence and mortality of liver cancer cases. This review presents the changing epidemiology of HCC in Asian countries in recent years. Globally, aged, male and Asian populations remain the group with the highest risk of HCC. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are still the leading risk factors of HCC with a slight decline in most Asian countries, which is mainly attributed to HBV vaccination of newborns, prevention of HCV horizontal transmission and treatment of chronic hepatitis. However, the prevalence of HCC caused by metabolic factors, including metabolic syndrome, obesity and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases, is increasing rapidly in Asian countries, which may eventually become the major cause of HCC. Excessive alcohol consumption continues to be an important risk factor as the average consumption of alcohol is still growing. Hopefully, great effort has been made to better prevention and treatment of HCC in most Asian regions, which significantly prolongs the survival of HCC patients. Asian countries tend to use more aggressive intervention than European and American countries, but it remains unclear whether this preference is related to a better prognosis. In conclusion, HCC remains a major disease burden in Asia, and the management of HCC should be adjusted dynamically based on the changing epidemiology.