A global analysis of plant recovery performance from water stress

Effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in the rhizosphere of two olive (Olea europaea) varieties Arbequina and Barnea under water deficit conditions

One strategy to improve olive (Olea europaea ) tree drought tolerance is through the symbiosis of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), which helps alleviate water deficit through a combination of morphophysiological effects. Cuttings of olive varieties Arbequina (A) and Barnea (B) were grown with (+AMF) or without (-AMF) inoculum in the olive grove rhizosphere soil. One year after establishment, pots were exposed to four different water regimes: (1) control (100% of crop evapotranspiration); (2) short-period drought (20days); (3) long-period drought (25days); and (4) rewatering (R). To evaluate the influence of AMF on tolerance to water stress, stem water potential, stomatal conductance and the biomarkers for water deficit malondialdehyde, proline, soluble sugars, phenols, and flavonoids were evaluated at the end of the irrigation regimes. Stem water potential showed higher values in A(+) and B(+) in all water conditions, and the opposite was true for stomatal conductance. For proline and soluble sugars, the stem water potential trend is repeated with some exceptions. AMF inoculum spore communities from A(+ and -) and B(+ and -) were characterised at the morphospecies level in terms of richness and abundance. Certain morphospecies were identified as potential drought indicators. These results highlight that the benefits of symbiotic relationships between olive and native AMF can help to mitigate the effects of abiotic stress in soils affected by drought.

Nocturnal stomatal behaviour and its impact on water use strategies of desert herbs in the Gurbantunggut Desert, Northwest China

Nocturnal stomatal behaviour has the potential to exert a profound influence on plant-water relations, especially water use efficiency. However, we know very less about plant functional type differences in nocturnal stomatal conductance and their roles in plant stress adaptation, especially drought adaptation. To address this critical knowledge gap, we assessed diel leaf gas exchanges in eight ephemeral and perennial herbs growing on the southern edge of the Gurbantunggut Desert, Northwest China. For both ephemeral and perennial herbs, the nocturnal stomatal conductance (gs) exceeded 30 % of daytime gs, except for an ephemeral herb (Malcolmia scorpioides). The nocturnal gs in the studied perennial herbs were significantly higher than it in the ephemeral herbs. The results suggest that circadian-driven stomatal priming plays a pivotal role in accelerating the attainment of steady-state gs during the morning for perennial herbs, thereby enhancing their capacity for carbon capture. Moreover, the nocturnal stomatal behaviour of the ephemeral herbs favored water retention in the morning, consequently enhanced intrinsic water use efficiency and long-term water use efficiency. In summary, plant functional type differences in the magnitude of nocturnal stomatal opening were related to differences in water acquisition and utilization and highlighted diverse water use strategies in the desert plants.

Are Arabidopsis thaliana plants able to recover from exposure to gamma radiation? A molecular perspective

Most plant research focuses on the responses immediately after exposure to ionizing irradiation (IR). However, it is as important to investigate how plants recover after exposure since this has a profound effect on future plant growth and development and hence on the long-term consequences of exposure to stress. This study aimed to investigate the IR-induced responses after exposure and during recovery by exposing 1-week old A. thaliana seedlings to gamma dose rates ranging from 27 to 103.7 mGy/h for 2 weeks and allowing them to recover for 4 days. A high-throughput RNAsequencing analysis was carried out. An enrichment of GO terms related to the metabolism of hormones was observed both after irradiation and during recovery at all dose rates. While plants exposed to the lowest dose rate activate defence responses after irradiation, they recover from the IR by resuming normal growth during the recovery period. Plants exposed to the intermediate dose rate invest in signalling and defence after irradiation. During recovery, in the plants exposed to the highest dose rate, fundamental metabolic processes such as photosynthesis and RNA modification were still affected. This might lead to detrimental effects in the long-term or in the next generations of those irradiated plants.

Research Progress of Grassland Ecosystem Structure and Stability and Inspiration for Improving Its Service Capacity in the Karst Desertification Control

The structure and stability of grassland ecosystems have a significant impact on biodiversity, material cycling and productivity for ecosystem services. However, the issue of the structure and stability of grassland ecosystems has not been systematically reviewed. Based on the Web of Science (WOS) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases, we used the systematic-review method and screened 133 papers to describe and analyze the frontiers of research into the structure and stability of grassland ecosystems. The research results showed that: (1) The number of articles about the structure and stability of grassland ecosystems is gradually increasing, and the research themes are becoming increasingly diverse. (2) There is a high degree of consistency between the study area and the spatial distribution of grassland. (3) Based on the changes in ecosystem patterns and their interrelationships with ecosystem processes, we reviewed the research progress and landmark results on the structure, stability, structure-stability relationship and their influencing factors of grassland ecosystems; among them, the study of structure is the main research focus (51.12%), followed by the study of the influencing factors of structure and stability (37.57%). (4) Key scientific questions on structural optimization, stability enhancement and harmonizing the relationship between structure and stability are explored. (5) Based on the background of karst desertification control (KDC) and its geographical characteristics, three insights are proposed to optimize the spatial allocation, enhance the stability of grassland for rocky desertification control and coordinate the regulation mechanism of grassland structure and stability. This study provided some references for grassland managers and relevant policy makers to optimize the structure and enhance the stability of grassland ecosystems. It also provided important insights to enhance the service capacity of grassland ecosystems in KDC.

The 2018 hot drought pushed conifer wood formation to the limit of its plasticity: Consequences for woody biomass production and tree ring structure

Hot droughts are expected to increase in Europe and disturb forest ecosystem functioning. Wood formation of trees has the potential to adapt to those events by compensatory mechanisms between the rates and durations of tracheid differentiation to form the typical pattern of vital wood anatomical structures. We monitored xylogenesis and measured wood anatomy of mature silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees along an elevational gradient in the Black Forest during the hot drought year of 2018. We assessed the kinetics of tracheid differentiation and the final tracheid dimensions and quantified the relationship between rates and durations of cell differentiation over the growing season. Cell differentiation kinetics were decoupled, and temperature and water availability signals were imprinted in the tree ring structure. The sudden decline in woody biomass production provided evidence for a disruption in carbon sequestration processes due to heat and drought stress. Growth processes of Scots pine (pioneer species) were mainly affected by the spring drought, whereas silver fir (climax species) growth processes were more disturbed by the summer drought. Our study provides novel insights on the plasticity of wood formation and carbon allocation in temperate conifer tree species in response to extreme climatic events.

Compensatory growth as a response to post-drought in grassland

Grasslands are structurally and functionally controlled by water availability. Ongoing global change is threatening the sustainability of grassland ecosystems through chronic alterations in climate patterns and resource availability, as well as by the increasing frequency and intensity of anthropogenic perturbations. Compared with many studies on how grassland ecosystems respond during drought, there are far fewer studies focused on grassland dynamics after drought. Compensatory growth, as the ability of plants to offset the adverse effects of environmental or anthropogenic perturbations, is a common phenomenon in grassland. However, compensatory growth induced by drought and its underlying mechanism across grasslands remains not clear. In this review, we provide examples of analogous compensatory growth from different grassland types across drought characteristics (intensity, timing, and duration) and explain the effect of resource availability on compensatory growth and their underlying mechanisms. Based on our review of the literature, a hypothetic framework for integrating plant, root, and microbial responses is also proposed to increase our understanding of compensatory growth after drought. This research will advance our understanding of the mechanisms of grassland ecosystem functioning in response to climate change.

Limited hydraulic recovery in seedlings of six tree species with contrasting leaf habits in subtropical China

Subtropical tree species may experience severe drought stress due to variable rainfall under future climates. However, the capacity to restore hydraulic function post-drought might differ among co-occurring species with contrasting leaf habits (e.g., evergreen and deciduous) and have implications for future forest composition. Moreover, the links between hydraulic recovery and physiological and morphological traits related to water-carbon availability are still not well understood. Here, potted seedlings of six tree species (four evergreen and two deciduous) were grown outdoors under a rainout shelter. They grew under favorable water conditions until they were experimentally subjected to a soil water deficit leading to losses of ca. 50% of hydraulic conductivity, and then soils were re-watered to field capacity. Traits related to carbon and water relations were measured. There were differences in drought responses and recovery between species, but not as a function of evergreen or deciduous groups. Sapindus mukorossi exhibited the most rapid drought response, which was associated with a suite of physiological and morphological traits (larger plant size, the lowest hydraulic capacitance (C _branch), higher minimum conductance (g _min) and lower HV (Huber value)). Upon re-watering, xylem water potential exhibited fast recovery in 1-3 days among species, while photosynthesis at saturating light (A _sat) and stomatal conductance (g _s) recovery lagged behind water potential recovery depending on species, with g _s recovery being more delayed than A _sat in most species. Furthermore, none of the six species exhibited significant hydraulic recovery during the 7 days re-watering period, indicating that xylem refilling was apparently limited; in addition, NSC availability had a minimal role in facilitating hydraulic recovery during this short-term period. Collectively, if water supply is limited by insignificant hydraulic recovery post-drought, the observed carbon assimilation recovery of seedlings may not be sustained over the longer term, potentially altering seedling regeneration and shifting forest species composition in subtropical China under climate change.

Species- and Age-Specific Growth Reactions to Extreme Droughts of the Keystone Tree Species across Forest-Steppe and Sub-Taiga Habitats of South Siberia

Over the coming decades, climate change can decrease forest productivity and stability in many semiarid regions. Tree-ring width (TRW) analysis allows estimation of tree sensitivity to droughts, including resistance (Rt) and resilience (Rc) indexes. It helps to find adaptive potential of individual trees and forest populations. On a forest stand scale, it is affected by habitat conditions and species’ ecophysiological characteristics, and on individual scale by tree genotype, age, and size. This study investigated TRW response to droughts in forest-steppe and sub-taiga of southern Siberia for keystone species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.). Chronologies reacted positively to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the previous July–September and current April–July. Depressed tree growth across region and droughts lasting over both intra-seasonal intervals were registered in 1965, 1974, and 1999. TRW-based Rt and Rc for these droughts did not reveal age- or size-related patterns. Higher growth stability indexes were observed for birch in sub-taiga and for conifers in forest-steppe. Larch at all sites had disadvantage against pine for 1965 and 1999 droughts aggravated by pest outbreaks, but adapted better to drought in 1974. Site aridity affected both tree growth stability and intensity of climatic response.

Resilience of Spanish forests to recent droughts and climate change

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades.

A theoretical and empirical assessment of stomatal optimization modeling

Optimal stomatal control models have shown great potential in predicting stomatal behavior and improving carbon cycle modeling. Basic stomatal optimality theory posits that stomatal regulation maximizes the carbon gain relative to a penalty of stomatal opening. All models take a similar approach to calculate instantaneous carbon gain from stomatal opening (the gain function). Where the models diverge is in how they calculate the corresponding penalty (the penalty function). In this review, we compare and evaluate 10 different optimization models in how they quantify the penalty and how well they predict stomatal responses to the environment. We evaluate models in two ways. First, we compare their penalty functions against seven criteria that ensure a unique and qualitatively realistic solution. Second, we quantitatively test model against multiple leaf gas-exchange datasets. The optimization models with better predictive skills have penalty functions that meet our seven criteria and use fitting parameters that are both few in number and physiology based. The most skilled models are those with a penalty function based on stress-induced hydraulic failure. We conclude by proposing a new model that has a hydraulics-based penalty function that meets all seven criteria and demonstrates a highly predictive skill against our test datasets.

Die hard: timberline conifers survive annual winter embolism

During winter, timberline trees are exposed to drought and frost, factors known to induce embolism. Studies indicated that conifers cope with winter embolism by xylem refilling. We analysed the loss of hydraulic conductivity (LC) in Picea abies branch xylem over 10 years, and correlated winter embolism to climate parameters. LC was investigated by direct X-ray micro-computer tomography (micro-CT) observations and potential cavitation fatigue by Cavitron measurements. Trees showed up to 100% winter embolism, whereby LC was highest, when climate variables indicated frost drought and likely freeze-thaw stress further increased LC. During summer, LC never exceeded 16%, due to hydraulic recovery. Micro-CT revealed homogenous embolism during winter and that recovery was based on xylem refilling. Summer samples exhibited lower LC in outermost compared to older tree rings, although no cavitation fatigue was detected. Long-term data and micro-CT observations demonstrate that timberline trees can survive annual cycles of pronounced winter-embolism followed by xylem refilling. Only a small portion of the xylem conductivity cannot be restored during the first year, while remaining conduits are refilled without fatigue during consecutive years. We identify important research topics to better understand the complex induction and repair of embolism at the timberline and its relevance to general plant hydraulics.

Competition and Drought Alter Optimal Stomatal Strategy in Tree Seedlings

A better understanding of plant stomatal strategies holds strong promise for improving predictions of vegetation responses to drought because stomata are the primary mechanism through which plants mitigate water stress. It has been assumed that plants regulate stomata to maintain a constant marginal water use efficiency and forego carbon gain when water is scarce. However, recent hypotheses pose that plants maximize carbon assimilation while also accounting for the risk of hydraulic damage via cavitation and hydraulic failure. This "gain-risk" framework incorporates competition in stomatal regulation because it takes into account that neighboring plants can "steal" unused water. This study utilizes stomatal models representing both the water use efficiency and carbon-maximization frameworks, and empirical data from three species in a potted growth chamber experiment, to investigate the effects of drought and competition on seedling stomatal strategy. We found that drought and competition responses in the empirical data were best explained by the carbon-maximization hypothesis and that both drought and competition affected stomatal strategy. Interestingly, stomatal responses differed substantially by species, with seedlings employing a riskier strategy when planted with a high water use competitor, and seedlings employing a more conservative strategy when planted with a low water use competitor. Lower water users in general had less stomatal sensitivity to decreasing Ψ _L compared to moderate to high water users. Repeated water stress also resulted in legacy effects on plant stomatal behavior, increasing stomatal sensitivity (i.e., conservative behavior) even when the seedling was returned to well-watered conditions. These results indicate that stomatal strategies are dynamic and change with climate and competition stressors. Therefore, incorporating mechanisms that allow for stomatal behavioral changes in response to water limitation may be an important step to improving carbon cycle projections in coupled climate-Earth system models.

Legacies of more frequent drought in ponderosa pine across the western United States

Despite widespread interest in drought legacies-multiyear impacts of drought on tree growth-the key implication of reported drought legacies remains unaddressed: as impaired growth and slow recovery associated with drought legacies are pervasive across forest ecosystems, what is the impact of more frequent drought conditions? We investigated the assumption that either multiple drought years occurring during a short period (multiyear droughts), or droughts occurring during the recovery period from previous drought (compounded droughts), are detrimental to subsequent growth. There is evidence that drought responses may vary among populations of widespread species, leading us to examine regional differences in responses of the conifer Pinus ponderosa to historic drought frequency in the western United States. More frequent drought conditions incurred additional growth declines and shifts in growth-climate sensitivities in the years following drought relative to single-drought events, with 'triple-droughts' being worse than 'double-droughts'. Notably, prediction skill was not strongly reduced when ignoring compounded droughts, a consequence of the temporally comprehensive formulation of our stochastic antecedent model that accounts for the climatic memory of tree growth. We argue that incorporating drought-induced temporal variability in tree growth sensitivities can aid inference gained from statistical models, where more simplistic models could overestimate the severity of drought legacies. We also found regional differences in response to repeated drought, and suggest plastic post-drought sensitivities and climatic memory may represent beneficial physiological adjustments in interior regions. Within-species variability may thus mediate forest responses to increasing drought frequency under future climate change, but experimental approaches using more species are necessary to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie drought legacy effects on tree growth.

Contrasting resistance and resilience to extreme drought and late spring frost in five major European tree species

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as severe droughts, heat waves, and late spring frosts are rare but exert a paramount role in shaping tree species distributions. The frequency of such ECEs is expected to increase with climate warming, threatening the sustainability of temperate forests. Here, we analyzed 2,844 tree-ring width series of five dominant European tree species from 104 Swiss sites ranging from 400 to 2,200 m a.s.l. for the period 1930-2016. We found that (a) the broadleaved oak and beech are sensitive to late frosts that strongly reduce current year growth; however, tree growth is highly resilient and fully recovers within 2 years; (b) radial growth of the conifers larch and spruce is strongly and enduringly reduced by spring droughts-these species are the least resistant and resilient to droughts; (c) oak, silver fir, and to a lower extent beech, show higher resistance and resilience to spring droughts and seem therefore better adapted to the future climate. Our results allow a robust comparison of the tree growth responses to drought and spring frost across large climatic gradients and provide striking evidence that the growth of some of the most abundant and economically important European tree species will be increasingly limited by climate warming. These results could serve for supporting species selection to maintain the sustainability of forest ecosystem services under the expected increase in ECEs.

Beyond the extreme: recovery of carbon and water relations in woody plants following heat and drought stress

Plant responses to drought and heat stress have been extensively studied, whereas post-stress recovery, which is fundamental to understanding stress resilience, has received much less attention. Here, we present a conceptual stress-recovery framework with respect to hydraulic and metabolic functioning in woody plants. We further synthesize results from controlled experimental studies following heat or drought events and highlight underlying mechanisms that drive post-stress recovery. We find that the pace of recovery differs among physiological processes. Leaf water potential and abscisic acid concentration typically recover within few days upon rewetting, while leaf gas exchange-related variables lag behind. Under increased drought severity as indicated by a loss in xylem hydraulic conductance, the time for stomatal conductance recovery increases markedly. Following heat stress release, a similar delay in leaf gas exchange recovery has been observed, but the reasons are most likely a slow reversal of photosynthetic impairment and other temperature-related leaf damages, which typically manifest at temperatures above 40 °C. Based thereon, we suggest that recovery of gas exchange is fast following mild stress, while recovery is slow and reliant on the efficiency of repair and regrowth when stress results in functional impairment and damage to critical plant processes. We further propose that increasing stress severity, particular after critical stress levels have been reached, increases the carbon cost involved in reestablishing functionality. This concept can guide future experimental research and provides a base for modeling post-stress recovery of carbon and water relations in trees.

Anisohydric behavior linked to persistent hydraulic damage and delayed drought recovery across seven North American tree species

The isohydry-anisohydry spectrum has become a popular way to characterize plant drought responses and recovery processes. Despite the proven utility of this framework for understanding the interconnected physiological changes plants undergo in response to water stress, new challenges have arisen pertaining to the traits and tradeoffs that underlie this concept. To test the utility of this framework for understanding hydraulic traits, drought physiology and recovery, we applied a 6 wk experimental soil moisture reduction to seven tree species followed by a 6 wk recovery period. Throughout, we measured hydraulic traits and monitored changes in gas exchange, leaf water potential, and hydraulic conductivity. Species' hydraulic traits were not coordinated, as some anisohydric species had surprisingly low resistance to embolism (P₅₀ ) and negative safety margins. In addition to widespread hydraulic damage, these species also experienced reductions in photosynthesis and stem water potential during water stress, and delayed recovery time. Given that we observed no benefit of being anisohydric either during or after drought, our results indicate the need to reconsider the traits and tradeoffs that underlie anisohydric behavior, and to consider the environmental, biological and edaphic processes that could allow this strategy to flourish in forests.

Urban forest fragments buffer trees from warming and pests

Trees are important components of urban landscapes because of the ecosystem services they provide. However, the effects of urbanization, particularly high temperatures, can benefit chronic insect pests and threaten ecosystem services offered by urban trees. Urban forest fragments are an often-overlooked component of the greater urban forest which may help to mitigate the damaging effects of urbanization. Melanaspis tenebricosa (gloomy scale) is a common pest of Acer rubrum (red maple) that becomes more abundant because of the urban heat island effect. We conducted observational and manipulative field experiments to test the hypothesis that trees in urban forest fragments would be cooler than those in surrounding ornamental landscapes and would thus have fewer M. tenebricosa, particularly in a hot mid-latitude city. Trees in forest fragments were 1.3° cooler and had three orders of magnitude fewer M. tenebricosa than trees in ornamental landscapes in Raleigh, NC USA. However, there was no difference in M. tenebricosa density between forest and landscape trees in Newark, DE and Philadelphia, PA USA which are 3.95 degrees of latitude higher, and nearer to the northern range extent. Trees in landscapes and forest fragments did not differ in predawn water potential, a measure of water stress, but likely differed in soil composition and moisture. We used potted trees to control for these differences and found that M. tenebricosa density still increased three times more in landscapes than forests suggesting temperature and not tree stress is the dominant factor. Taken together our results indicate two things. First, that trees growing in urban forest fragments are buffered from a chronic urban tree pest due to lower temperatures. Second, that temperature-driven differences in M. tenebricosa density which we saw in Raleigh could predict future density of the pest in higher latitude cities as the climate warms.

Drought timing, not previous drought exposure, determines sensitivity of two shortgrass species to water stress

Climate change will alter global precipitation patterns, making it increasingly important that we understand how ecosystems will be impacted by more frequent and severe droughts. Yet most drought studies examine a single, within-season drought, and we know relatively little about the impacts of multiple droughts that occur within a single growing season. This distinction is important because many plant species are able to acclimate physiologically, such that the effects of multiple droughts on ecosystem function deviate significantly from the effects of cumulative, independent droughts. Unfortunately, we know relatively little about the ability of dominant species to acclimate to drought in drought-sensitive ecosystems like semi-arid grasslands. Here, we tested for physiological acclimation to multiple drought events in two dominant shortgrass steppe species: Bouteloua gracilis (C₄) and Elymus elymoides (C₃). Neither species exhibited physiological acclimation to drought; leaf water potential, stomatal conductance, and photosynthesis rates were all similarly affected by a single, late period drought and a second, late period drought. Biomass was lowest in plants exposed to two droughts, but this is likely due to the cumulative effects of both an early and late period drought. Our results suggest that late period droughts do exert weaker effects on biomass production of two dominant shortgrass species, but that the weaker effects are due to ontogenetic changes in plant physiology as opposed to physiological acclimation against multiple droughts. As a consequence, current ecosystem models that incorporate grass phenology and seasonal physiology should provide accurate predictions of primary production under future climates.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.

Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.