The World Health Organization Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool-Romania, 2015

Assessing measles risk transmission in Iran: a utilization of the World Health Organization's programmatic risk assessment tool,2022

BACKGROUND

Despite successful efforts to eliminate measles in Iran, imported measles cases continue to be reported. Because measles is endemic in neighboring countries. This research aims to evaluate the risk of measles transmission in different regions of Iran.

METHODS

Measles case-based surveillance data of the Expanded Program of Immunization containing 31 provinces and 463 districts from 2019 to 2021 were assessed. The WHO Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment tool was used to evaluate the risk of disease transmission in four domains: population immunity, surveillance quality, program delivery performance, and threat assessment. scores were categorized as low, medium, high, or very high risk.

RESULTS

During 2019-2021, the average incidence of measles was 1.9 per 1 million. Chabahar and Mashhad with 76 and ./6per million reported the highest and lowest incidence respectively. All 463 districts were categorized as low risk in risk assessment. Andimeshk, Chabahar, and Bojnurd obtained the highest risk scores with 27, 24, and 25 respectively. All districts were classified as low risk for population immunity. The average coverage of (MMR1) and (MMR2) was 95% or higher. All districts received the minimum points for surveillance quality.

CONCLUSION

All regions are placed at a low level of disease transmission risk. However, the tool is not able to assess the risk at the rural or peripheral sectors level. The indicators used in this tool are the same for all countries with different epidemiological features (elimination, endemic). Sensitivity analysis can optimize the use of this tool for countries with different disease conditions.

Suboptimal MMR Vaccination Coverages-A Constant Challenge for Measles Elimination in Romania

Measles is targeted for elimination since 2001, with a significant reduction in cases recorded worldwide, but outbreaks occur periodically due to immunization gaps. This study analyzes the evolution of vaccination coverage rates (VCRs) in Romania, a EU country with large measles epidemics during the last two decades, including an ongoing outbreak in 2023. Vaccination against measles has been part of the National Immunization Program since 1979, initially as a single dose, and from 1994 onwards it has had two doses. The initially high national VCRs of >97% gradually declined from 2010 onward and remained constantly under 90%, with further decreases during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lowest VCRs for both vaccine doses in the last decade were recorded in 2022 and were 83.4% for the first dose and 71.4% for the second dose, with significant differences among Romania's 42 counties. Several factors contributed to this decline, including failure to attend the general practitioners' offices, increased number of children lost to follow-up due to population movements, missed vaccination opportunities due to temporary medical contraindications, a surge in vaccine hesitancy/refusal, a decreasing number of general practitioners and discontinuities in vaccine supply. The persisting suboptimal VCRs in Romania threaten the progress toward measles elimination.

[Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic reviewEstratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática]

Objective

To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission.

Method

Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form.

Results

Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification.

Conclusion

There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

Subacute myoclonic measles encephalitis - An opportunistic HIV-associated infection

Introduction

An unusual cluster of myoclonic epilepsy was observed in a Romanian pediatric HIV cohort concurrent with measles outbreaks. We describe this particular form of subacute measles encephalitis (SME) in a group of HIV-infected children and adolescents with severe immunosuppression.

Methods

This is a single-center study, starting in 1997 and covering 4 measles outbreaks in Romania. The presumptive diagnosis of subacute myoclonic measles encephalitis (SMME) was based on: (1) epidemiological data, previous measles episode or presumed contact with measles virus (MV), (2) clinical presentation with initial localized myoclonic jerks with rapid extension and subsequent motor deficit with preserved mental status, and (3) neuroimaging studies revealing cortical gray matter lesions. Definitive diagnosis was based on a neuropathological exam and immunohistochemistry of brain tissues, and measles RNA detection in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF).

Results

Thirty-six patients were diagnosed with a particular form of SME during consecutive measles outbreaks in Romania: 1996-1998 (22); 2005-2008 (12); 2010-2011 (1) and 2016-2018 (1). Most children were born in the late 80s and had parenterally acquired HIV infection in early childhood. Before the episode of SMME, 11 patients had confirmed measles, while the rest, without typical rash, had a respiratory tract infection and/or presumed previous measles contact. In all patients, the clinical onset was sudden, with unilateral myoclonus. MRI findings revealed mainly focal cortical gray matter lesions. Neurologic symptoms progressed rapidly to coma and death in most patients. Three patients survived SMME, they had higher CD4 count at onset, slower progression of neurological symptoms, and benefit of immune recovery with cART. Immunocytochemistry studies revealed MV in the brain with a pattern suggesting an ascending viral neural infection. MV was isolated from CSF in 7 out of 8 patients. Sequence analysis of MV RNA from both nasopharyngeal swabs and CSF was available for one patient with similar N-450 strain characteristics.

Conclusion

During an outbreak of measles, neurological manifestations, especially myoclonus in immunosuppressed patients, can be related to measles even in the absence of an acute episode. This particular form of subacute myoclonic measles encephalitis is an opportunistic fatal disease. Immune recovery due to effective antiretroviral treatment might increase survival.

Evolving measles status and immunization policy development in six European countries

Developing and implementing new immunization policies in response to shifting epidemiology is a critical public health component. We adopted a mixed-methods approach (via narrative literature review [101 articles] and 9 semi-structured interviews) to evaluate policy development in response to shifting measles epidemiology in six European countries (Italy, Belgium, Germany, Romania, UK, and Ukraine); where policies and strategies have evolved in response to country-specific disease and vaccination patterns. Periodic outbreaks have occurred in all countries against a background of declining measles-containing-vaccine (MCV) uptake and increasing public vaccine hesitancy (with substantial regional or social differences in measles burden and vaccine uptake). Health-care worker (HCW) vaccine skepticism is also seen. While many outbreaks arise or involve specific susceptible populations (e.g., minority/migrant communities), the broader pattern is spread to the wider (and generally older) population; often among incompletely/non-vaccinated individuals as a legacy of previous low uptake. Immunization policy and strategic responses are influenced by political and social factors, where public mistrust contributes to vaccine hesitancy. A strong centralized immunization framework (allied with effective regional implementation and coherent political commitment) can effectively increase uptake. Mandatory vaccination has increased childhood MCV uptake in Italy, and similar benefits could be anticipated for other countries considering vaccine mandates. Although possible elsewhere, socio-political considerations render mandating impractical in other countries, where targeted immunization activities to bolster routine uptake are more important. Addressing HCW skepticism, knowledge gaps, improving access and increasing public/community engagement and education to address vaccine hesitancy/mistrust (especially in communities with specific unmet needs) is critical.

A rapid risk analysis tool to prioritise response to infectious disease outbreaks

Epidemics are influenced by both disease and societal factors and can grow exponentially over short time periods. Epidemic risk analysis can help in rapidly predicting potentially serious outcomes and flagging the need for rapid response. We developed a multifactorial risk analysis tool 'EpiRisk' to provide rapid insight into the potential severity of emerging epidemics by combining disease-related parameters and country-related risk parameters. An initial set of 18 disease and country-related risk parameters was reduced to 14 following qualitative discussions and the removal of highly correlated parameters by a correlation and clustering analysis. Of the remaining parameters, three risk levels were assigned ranging from low (1) moderate (2) and high (3). The total risk score for an outbreak of a given disease in a particular country is calculated by summing these 14 risk scores, and this sum is subsequently classified into one of four risk categories: low risk (<21), moderate risk (21-29), high risk (30-37) and extreme risk (>37). Total risk scores were calculated for nine retrospective outbreaks demonstrating an association with the actual impact of those outbreaks. We also evaluated to what extent the risk scores correlate with the number of cases and deaths in 61 additional outbreaks between 2002 and 2018, demonstrating positive associations with outbreak severity as measured by the number of deaths. Using EpiRisk, timely intervention can be implemented by predicting the risk of emerging outbreaks in real time, which may help government and public health professionals prevent catastrophic epidemic outcomes.

A review of toolkits and case definitions for detecting enteric fever outbreaks in Asian and African countries from 1965-2019

Background

This review assessed the case definitions, diagnostic criteria, antimicrobial resistance, and methods used for enteric fever outbreaks and utilization of any unified outbreak score or checklist for early identification and response in Asia and Africa from 1965-2019.

Methods

We searched enteric fever outbreaks using PubMed, Google Scholar, and the Cochrane library. Studies describing a single outbreak event of enteric fever in Asia and Africa from 1965-2019 were reviewed. We excluded case reports, letter to editors, studies reporting typhoid in conjunction with other diseases, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) trip reports, the World Health Organization (WHO) bulletins report, data from mathematical modeling and simulation studies, reviews and ProMed alert. Also, non-typhoidal salmonella outbreaks were excluded.

Results

A total of 5063 articles were identified using the key terms and 68 studies were selected for data extraction. Most (48, 71%) outbreaks were from Asian countries, 20 (29%) were reported from Africa. Only 15 studies reported the case definition used for case identification during an outbreak and 8 of those were from Asia. A third (20, 29%) of the studies described antibiotic resistance pattern. 43 (63%) studies contained information regarding the source of the outbreak. Outcomes (hospitalization and deaths) were reported in a quarter of studies. Only 23 (29%) of the studies reported outbreak control strategies while none reported any unified outbreak score or a checklist to identify the outbreak.

Conclusion

This review highlights the variability in detection and reporting methods for enteric fever outbreaks in Asia and Africa. No standardized case definitions or laboratory methods were reported. Only a few studies reported strategies for outbreak control. There is a need for the development of a unified outbreak score or a checklist to identify and report enteric fever outbreaks globally.

Characterisation of measles after the introduction of the combined measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in 2004 with focus on the laboratory data, 2016 to 2019 outbreak, Romania

Background

Since January 2016, a resurgence of measles in Romania has led to the third measles epidemic in the past 12 years; 64 deaths have been confirmed so far–the highest number of measles-related deaths since the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine was introduced in 2004.

Aim

To provide an overview on the characterisation on measles in Romania after the introduction of the MMR vaccine with focus on the current outbreak, laboratory and molecular analysis.

Methods

We performed an analysis of measles incidence and mortality after the introduction of MMR vaccination and a retrospective study using serological and molecular data in three consecutive outbreaks with focus on the current outbreak.

Results

In the current outbreak, 17,533 measles cases were notified to the national surveillance system, 93% were unvaccinated. Measles virus was isolated from 429 samples and 283 were genotyped. Genotype B3 was predominant (n = 269) and sporadic measles cases associated with D8 genotype (n = 9) were also observed; genotype D4 and D8 were identified in the previous two measles outbreaks. The detection of several distinct measles virus B3 genotypes suggests multiple virus importations to Romania.

Conclusion

The current outbreak is a consequence of insufficient vaccine coverage. Control measures were implemented to improve uptake of MMR vaccine, including administering the first MMR dose at a younger age (9–11 months) and offering catch-up vaccination to children that have not followed the recommended dosing schedule. More measures are needed to improve the surveillance performance and to achieve high routine MMR vaccination coverage.

The spatial analysis of annual measles incidence and transition threat assessment in Iran in 2016

Background: During the past years, due to the increase in immunization coverage and promotion of surveillance data, the incidence of measles decreased. This study aimed to determine the measles incidence risk, to conduct spatial mapping of annual measles incidence, and to assess the transition threat in different districts of Iran.

Methods: A historical cohort study with retrospective data was conducted. The measles surveillance data containing 14 294 cases suspected of having measles in Iran were analyzed during 2014-2016. WHO Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool was applied to calculate and map the incidence of measles in each district, to determine the annual incidence rate, and to conduct spatial threat assessment risk. Threat assessment was measured based on factors influencing the exposure and transmission of measles virus in the population. The annual measles incidence rate and spatial mapping of incidence in each Iranian district was conducted by Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics in Excel 2013 and Arc GIS 10.3.

Results: Of 14 294 suspected cases, 0.6% (CI 95%: 0.599-0.619) were identified as clinically compatible measles, 0.280 (CI 95%: 0.275-0.284) as confirmed rubella, 0.52% (CI 95%: 0.516-0.533) as epi-linked measles, 4.6% (CI 95%: 0.450-0.464) as lab-confirmed measles, and 94% (CI 95%: 93.93-94.11) were discarded. The annual incidence rate in cases per 100 000 populations increased from 0.0726, (CI 95%; 0.0714-0.0738) in 2014 to 0.1154 (CI 95%; 0.1135-0.1173) in 2016, and the 3-year incidence rate during the study period was 1.032 (CI 95%; 1.017-1.047) and the annual average was 0.3442 (CI 95%; 0.3387-0.3496).

Conclusion: The average annual incidence rate of measles in Iran was low, but after a 11-fold increase in the number of measles cases in 2015, the number of measles cases decreased to more than 7-times in 2016. However, maintaning a high immunization coverage of measles and timely vaccination can be effective in reaching the goal of measles elimination.

Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Analysis of Measles Viruses in Shenzhen, China from January 2015 to July 2019

Background

Measles morbidity and mortality were significantly reduced after the measles vaccine was introduced in China in 1965. However, measles outbreaks easily occur in densely populated areas, especially where there is no universal vaccination. The outbreak that occurred in Shenzhen, the Chinese city with the largest internal immigration, provides a lesson in measles virus mutation and measles prevention. The present study is a phylogenetic analysis of measles viruses and comparison of clinical signs between individuals with and without vaccination.

Material/Methods

We performed phylogenetic analysis of the nucleoprotein (N) genes of measles virus from 129 measles patients in Shenzhen from January 2015 to July 2019. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using the neighbor-joining method.

Results

The phylogenetic analysis showed all viruses were classified into genotype H1. In addition, there is often a seasonal measles outbreak in July each year. The clinical data showed that patients who were unvaccinated were more likely to have coughing, chronic bronchitis, conjunctivitis, catarrh, Koplik spots, and diarrhea. Children of migrant workers and those living in mountainous and rural districts accounted for most measles cases.

Conclusions

Our results showed there was a seasonal measles outbreak in Shenzhen Children’s Hospital. All the measles virus from 129 measles patients were H1 viruses. The clinical signs also showed a difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Moreover, most of the unvaccinated patients came from migrant worker families. We suggest there is a need for increased health promotion and vaccination programs for migrant workers and people living in remote villages.

Accelerating measles and rubella elimination through research and innovation - Findings from the Measles & Rubella Initiative research prioritization process, 2016

The Measles & Rubella Initiative (M&RI) identified five key strategies to achieve measles and rubella elimination, including research and innovation to support cost-effective operations and improve vaccination and diagnostic tools. In 2016, the M&RI Research and Innovation Working Group (R&IWG) completed a research prioritization process to identify key research questions and update the global research agenda. The R&IWG reviewed meeting reports and strategic planning documents and solicited programmatic inputs from vaccination experts at the program operational level through a web survey, to identify previous research priorities and new research questions. The R&IWG then convened a meeting of experts to prioritize the identified research questions in four strategic areas: (1) epidemiology and economics, (2) surveillance and laboratory, (3) immunization strategies, and (4) demand creation and communications. The experts identified 19 priority research questions in the four strategic areas to address key areas of work necessary to further progress toward elimination. Future commitments from partners will be needed to develop a platform for improved coordination with adequate and predictable resources for research implementation and innovation to address these identified priorities.

Estimation of measles risk using the World Health Organization Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool, Iran

Introduction

Based on the World Health Organization (WHO) reports the EMRO countries did not reached to eradication of measles at 2010. This study aimed to estimate the risk of measles outbreak in different districts of Iran to identify high-risk areas based on WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool.

Materials and methods

The WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool was used to estimate the overall risk of measles in 31 providences and 322 districts of Iran at 2017. The measles risk was calculated by a function of four indicator scores including population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment and the overall risk of measles for each districts calculated. Then, the tool assigned each district a risk category of low, medium, high, or very high according to the overall risk score.

Results

Of the 322 districts in Iran, all districts were categorized as low risk and there was no very high risk, high risk and medium risk district in Iran. Twenty-six districts (7.4%) received to risk point higher than 20. Based on population immunity and program delivery performance indicators, all districts in Iarn were categorized as low risk and 92.86% of districts were in low risk category by surveillance quality indicator.

Conclusion

The overall risk of measles profile was categorized as low risk and Iranian practices for measles elimination is very good in comparing other studies in this area. However, more attempts should be conducted to sustaining the surveillance quality indicators in all districts.

Monitoring of Surveillance Quality Indicators of Measles in Iranian Districts: Analysis of Measles Surveillance System 2014-2016

BACKGROUND

The elimination target for measles as an acute and contagious disease in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and Iran is planned by high-quality surveillance. We aimed to monitor the surveillance quality indicators of measles by in all districts of Iran during 2014-16.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Four quality surveillance indicators of measles including non measles discarded rate, percent of suspected cases with adequate investigation, percent of adequate blood specimen collection and percent with timely availability of laboratory results were assessed in Iran. Surveillance data of measles were extracted from the measles surveillance system and the risk point score for each district was calculated based on WHO Risk Assessment Tool by a function of four indicators.

RESULTS

Overall, 14312 suspected cases and 322 districts were assessed and the risk points of measles' quality surveillance showed that 92.8% of Iranian districts were categorized as low risk, 2.8% medium risk, 0.62% high risk and 3.73% very high-risk category. The appropriate non measles discarded rate indicator was 87.3%. The percent of suspected cases with adequate investigation (more than 2 per 100000 people) was 87.9%. Moreover, the average of percent adequate blood specimen collection and percent with timely availability of laboratory results was 85.16% and 85.71%, respectively in all Iranian districts.

CONCLUSIONS

The surveillance quality indicators in Iran were good and higher than the WHO plans. Increasing the percentage of non-measles discarded rate could improve the poor quality in high risk and very high-risk districts.

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response.

Measles and rubella elimination: learning from polio eradication and moving forward with a diagonal approach

INTRODUCTION

In 1988, an estimated 350,000 children were paralyzed by polio and 125 countries reported polio cases, the World Health Assembly passed a resolution to achieve polio eradication by 2000, and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established as a partnership focused on eradication. Today, following eradication efforts, polio cases have decreased >99% and eradication of all three types of wild polioviruses is approaching. However, since polio resources substantially support disease surveillance and other health programs, losing polio assets could reverse progress toward achieving Global Vaccine Action Plan goals. Areas covered: As the end of polio approaches and GPEI funds and capacity decrease, we document knowledge, experience, and lessons learned from 30 years of polio eradication. Expert commentary: Transitioning polio assets to measles and rubella (MR) elimination efforts would accelerate progress toward global vaccination coverage and equity. MR elimination feasibility and benefits have long been established. Focusing efforts on MR elimination after achieving polio eradication would make a permanent impact on reducing child mortality but should be done through a 'diagonal approach' of using measles disease transmission to identify areas possibly susceptible to other vaccine-preventable diseases and to strengthen the overall immunization and health systems to achieve disease-specific goals.