The decline of dengue in the Americas in 2017: discussion of multiple hypotheses

Dengue Virus Serotype 3 Origins and Genetic Dynamics, Jamaica

We identified 3 clades of dengue virus serotype 3 belonging to genotype III isolated during 2019-2020 in Jamaica by using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenomic and phylogeographic analyses. The viruses likely originated from Asia in 2014. Newly expanded molecular surveillance efforts in Jamaica will guide appropriate public health responses.

The Risk of Virus Emergence in South America: A Subtle Balance Between Increasingly Favorable Conditions and a Protective Environment

South American ecosystems host astonishing biodiversity, with potentially great richness in viruses. However, these ecosystems have not yet been the source of any widespread, epidemic viruses. Here we explore a set of putative causes that may explain this apparent paradox. We discuss that human presence in South America is recent, beginning around 14,000 years ago; that few domestications of native species have occurred; and that successive immigration events associated with Old World virus introductions reduced the likelihood of spillovers and adaptation of local viruses into humans. Also, the diversity and ecological characteristics of vertebrate hosts might serve as protective factors. Moreover, although forest areas remained well preserved until recently, current brutal, sudden, and large-scale clear cuts through the forest have resulted in nearly no ecotones, which are essential for creating an adaptive gradient of microbes, hosts, and vectors. This may be temporarily preventing virus emergence. Nevertheless, the mid-term effect of such drastic changes in habitats and landscapes, coupled with explosive urbanization and climate changes, must not be overlooked by health authorities.

Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.

West Nile virus in Mexico: Why vectors matter for explaining the current absence of epidemics

Since 2002, West Nile Virus (WNV) has been reported in 18 states in Mexico, either by PCR or serological testing. However, it is believed that the virus is present in more states. Only four states (out of 32) have reported confirmed human cases, and one state has serological evidence. In the country, WNV is present in mainly horses and birds, but its presence extends to crocodiles, felines, canines, swines, donkeys, caprines, antilopes, cattle, bats, and camelids. Positive mosquito species include Aedes and Culex spp. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the absence of WNV epidemics in Latin America. Since some regions of Mexico and the United States share ecological and climatic conditions, these hypotheses may not be sufficient to account for the absence of WNV outbreaks or epidemics. This paper discusses the proposed ideas and attempts to contextualize them for Mexico, particularly for the U.S.-Mexico border, where WNV infections have been reported in humans, horses, and mosquitoes. We propose that integration of urban ecology and entomology knowledge is needed to better understand the absence of WN cases in Mexico.

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019

Dengue has broadened its global distribution substantially in the past two decades, and many endemic areas are experiencing increases in incidence. The Dominican Republic recently experienced its two largest outbreaks to date with 16,836 reported cases in 2015 and 20,123 reported cases in 2019. With continued increases in dengue transmission, developing tools to better prepare healthcare systems and mosquito control agencies is of critical importance. Before such tools can be developed, however, we must first better understand potential drivers of dengue transmission. To that end, we focus in this paper on determining relationships between climate variables and dengue transmission with an emphasis on eight provinces and the capital city of the Dominican Republic in the period 2015-2019. We present summary statistics for dengue cases, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in this period, and we conduct an analysis of correlated lags between climate variables and dengue cases as well as correlated lags among dengue cases in each of the nine locations. We find that the southwestern province of Barahona had the largest dengue incidence in both 2015 and 2019. Among all climate variables considered, lags between relative humidity variables and dengue cases were the most frequently correlated. We found that most locations had significant correlations with cases in other locations at lags of zero weeks. These results can be used to improve predictive models of dengue transmission in the country.

Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction number R 0 for the Republic of Panama in the 1999-2022 period

Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction,R 0 , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully providedR 0 estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation ofR 0 for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.

Epidemiological profile of arboviruses in two different scenarios: dengue circulation vs. dengue, chikungunya and Zika co-circulation

BACKGROUND

The severity and distribution of dengue virus (DENV) infections have been attributed to a complex interaction among viral, host and environmental factors. Herein, we investigated the influence of chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses on the epidemiological profile of dengue cases, using Recife, Pernambuco state, Brazil, as a study model. In addition, we described and compared the epidemiological profile related to each arbovirus (DENV vs. CHIKV vs. ZIKV).

METHODS

All cases of dengue, chikungunya and Zika reported to the Pernambuco Health Department in 2011-2013 (DENV circulation) and 2016-2018 (DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV co-circulation) were included in our study. The cases were classified by sex, age and race/color and their distribution was analyzed by the χ² test. Furthermore, the data were also analyzed for co-infections. Temperature, humidity and rainfall data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and paired t-test.

RESULTS

During 2011-2013, 15,315 dengue cases were diagnosed, most of them female, brown and 20-29 age group. Between 2016 and 2018, 15,870 dengue cases were described, which presented the same profile described above. In the two triennia, the female/male dengue ratio fluctuated significantly, ranging from 1.07 to 1.52. Regarding chikungunya, 7076 cases were reported, most of them female and brown. The female/male ratio also fluctuated significantly, ranging from 1.62 to 2.1. Two main age groups were observed in chikungunya: ≤ 19 years (minority of diagnoses) and ≥ 20 years (majority of diagnoses). In the same triennium, 266 Zika cases were reported to the Pernambuco Health Department, mainly in females and in the 0-9 and 20-39 age groups. In general, 119 co-infections were identified: 117 DENV-CHIKV, 1 CHIKV-ZIKV and 1 DENV-CHIKV-ZIKV. Concerning climate data, only the humidity in 2011 was significantly different from the other years.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiological profile of dengue cases did not change after the introduction of CHIKV and ZIKV. Females were the most diagnosed with dengue, chikungunya or Zika, however we found important differences in the age profile of these arboviruses, which should be considered by public health policies, as well as investigated in future studies of virus-host interaction.

Dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus infections among Dutch travellers to Suriname: a prospective study during the introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus, 2014 to 2017

BackgroundSuriname, a country endemic for dengue virus (DENV), is a popular destination for Dutch travellers visiting friends and relatives and tourist travellers. Chikungunya and Zika virus (CHIKV, ZIKV) were introduced in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Data on infection risks among travellers are limited.AimWe aimed to prospectively study incidence rate (IR) and determinants for DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV infection in adult travellers to Suriname from 2014 through 2017.MethodsParticipants kept a travel diary and were tested for anti-DENV, anti-ZIKV and anti-CHIKV IgG antibodies (Euroimmun). Selected samples were subjected to an in-house DENV and ZIKV PRNT50. The IR (infections/1,000 person-months of travel) and IR ratio and determinants for infection were calculated.ResultsTravel-acquired infections were found in 21 of 481 participants: 18 DENV, four ZIKV and two CHIKV, yielding an IR_DENV of 47.0 (95% CI: 29.6-74.6), IR_ZIKV of 11.6 (95% CI: 4.4-31.0) and IR_CHIKV of 5.6 (95% CI: 1.4-22.2)/1,000 person-months. In nine DENV and three ZIKV infected participants, infections were PRNT50-confirmed, yielding a lower IR_DENV of 23.3 (95% CI: 12.1-44.8) and an IR_ZIKV of 8.4 (95% CI: 2.7-26.1) per 1,000 person-months. Tourist travel was associated with DENV infection. ZIKV and CHIKV infections occurred soon after their reported introductions.ConclusionsDespite an overestimation of serologically confirmed infections, Dutch travellers to Suriname, especially tourists, are at substantial risk of DENV infection. As expected, the risk of contracting ZIKV and CHIKV was highest during outbreaks. Cross-reaction and potential cross-protection of anti-DENV and -ZIKV antibodies should be further explored.

Association of Midgut Bacteria and Their Metabolic Pathways with Zika Infection and Insecticide Resistance in Colombian Aedes aegypti Populations

INTRODUCTION

Aedes aegypti is the vector of several arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. In 2015-16, Zika virus (ZIKV) had an outbreak in South America associated with prenatal microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. This mosquito's viral transmission is influenced by microbiota abundance and diversity and its interactions with the vector. The conditions of cocirculation of these three arboviruses, failure in vector control due to insecticide resistance, limitations in dengue management during the COVID-19 pandemic, and lack of effective treatment or vaccines make it necessary to identify changes in mosquito midgut bacterial composition and predict its functions through the infection. Its study is fundamental because it generates knowledge for surveillance of transmission and the risk of outbreaks of these diseases at the local level.

METHODS

Midgut bacterial compositions of females of Colombian Ae. aegypti populations were analyzed using DADA2 Pipeline, and their functions were predicted with PICRUSt2 analysis. These analyses were done under the condition of natural ZIKV infection and resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin, alone and in combination. One-step RT-PCR determined the percentage of ZIKV-infected females. We also measured the susceptibility to the pyrethroid lambda-cyhalothrin and evaluated the presence of the V1016I mutation in the sodium channel gene.

RESULTS

We found high ZIKV infection rates in Ae. aegypti females from Colombian rural municipalities with deficient water supply, such as Honda with 63.6%. In the face of natural infection with an arbovirus such as Zika, the diversity between an infective and non-infective form was significantly different. Bacteria associated with a state of infection with ZIKV and lambda-cyhalothrin resistance were detected, such as the genus Bacteroides, which was related to functions of pathogenicity, antimicrobial resistance, and bioremediation of insecticides. We hypothesize that it is a vehicle for virus entry, as it is in human intestinal infections. On the other hand, Bello, the only mosquito population classified as susceptible to lambda-cyhalothrin, was associated with bacteria related to mucin degradation functions in the intestine, belonging to the Lachnospiraceae family, with the genus Dorea being increased in ZIKV-infected females. The Serratia genus presented significantly decreased functions related to phenazine production, potentially associated with infection control, and control mechanism functions for host defense and quorum sensing. Additionally, Pseudomonas was the genus principally associated with functions of the degradation of insecticides related to tryptophan metabolism, ABC transporters with a two-component system, efflux pumps, and alginate synthesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Microbiota composition may be modulated by ZIKV infection and insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti Colombian populations. The condition of resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin could be inducing a phenome of dysbiosis in field Ae. aegypti affecting the transmission of arboviruses.

Re-emergence of arbovirus diseases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The role of simultaneous viral circulation between 2014 and 2019

The burden of arbovirus diseases in Brazil has increased within the past decade due to the emergence of chikungunya and Zika and endemic circulation of all four dengue serotypes. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may alter conditions to favor vector-host transmission and allow for cyclic re-emergence of disease. We sought to determine the impact of climate conditions on arbovirus co-circulation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika cases from Brazil's national notifiable disease information system (SINAN) and created autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) to predict arbovirus incidence accounting for the lagged effect of temperature and rainfall. Each year, we estimate that the combined arboviruses were associated with an average of 8429 to 10,047 lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). After controlling for temperature and precipitation, our model predicted a three cycle pattern where large arbovirus outbreaks appear to be primed by a smaller scale surge and followed by a lull of cases. These dynamic arbovirus patterns in Rio de Janeiro support a mechanism of susceptibility enhancement until the theoretical threshold of population immunity allows for temporary cross protection among certain arboviruses. This suspected synergy presents a major public health challenge due to overlapping locations and seasonality of arbovirus diseases, which may perpetuate disease burden and overwhelm the health system.

Epidemiology of Indigenous Dengue Cases in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China

Objective

Autochthonous transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) occurred each year from 2014 to 2018 in Zhejiang province, and became an emerging public health problem. We characterized the autochthonous transmission of the DENV and traced the source of infection for further control and prevention of dengue.

Methods

Descriptive and spatiotemporal cluster analyses were conducted to characterize the epidemiology of autochthonous transmission of the DENV. Molecular epidemiology was used to identify the infection source.

Results

In total, 1,654 indigenous cases and 12 outbreaks, with no deaths, were reported during 2004-2018. Before 2017, all outbreaks occurred in suburban areas. During 2017-2018, five out of eight outbreaks occurred in urban areas. The median duration of outbreaks (28 days) in 2017-2018 was shortened significantly (P = 0.028) in comparison with that in 2004-2016 (71 days). The median onset-visiting time, visiting-confirmation time, and onset-confirmation time was 1, 3, and 4 days, respectively. The DENV serotypes responsible for autochthonous transmission in Zhejiang Province were DENV 1, DENV 2, and DENV 3, with DENV 1 being the most frequently reported. Southeast Asia was the predominant source of indigenous infection.

Conclusions

Zhejiang Province witnessed an increase in the frequency, incidence, and geographic expansion of indigenous Dengue cases in recent years. The more developed coastal and central region of Zhejiang Province was impacted the most.

Current Understanding of the Role of T Cells in Chikungunya, Dengue and Zika Infections

Arboviral infections such as Chikungunya (CHIKV), Dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) are a major disease burden in tropical and sub-tropical countries, and there are no effective vaccinations or therapeutic drugs available at this time. Understanding the role of the T cell response is very important when designing effective vaccines. Currently, comprehensive identification of T cell epitopes during a DENV infection shows that CD8 and CD4 T cells and their specific phenotypes play protective and pathogenic roles. The protective role of CD8 T cells in DENV is carried out through the killing of infected cells and the production of proinflammatory cytokines, as CD4 T cells enhance B cell and CD8 T cell activities. A limited number of studies attempted to identify the involvement of T cells in CHIKV and ZIKV infection. The identification of human immunodominant ZIKV viral epitopes responsive to specific T cells is scarce, and none have been identified for CHIKV. In CHIKV infection, CD8 T cells are activated during the acute phase in the lymph nodes/blood, and CD4 T cells are activated during the chronic phase in the joints/muscles. Studies on the role of T cells in ZIKV-neuropathogenesis are limited and need to be explored. Many studies have shown the modulating actions of T cells due to cross-reactivity between DENV-ZIKV co-infections and have repeated heterologous/homologous DENV infection, which is an important factor to consider when developing an effective vaccine.

Clinical outcomes of dengue virus infection in pregnant and non-pregnant women of reproductive age: a retrospective cohort study from 2016 to 2019 in Paraná, Brazil

BACKGROUND

The increasing number of dengue cases worldwide implies a greater exposure of at-risk groups, such as pregnant women. DENV infection during pregnancy has been increasingly associated with unfavorable outcomes, but the evolution of the disease and its clinical outcomes remain unclear. The objective of this study was to characterize dengue cases in reproductive aged women by comparing the development of the disease in pregnant and non-pregnant women.

METHODS

A population based retrospective cohort study that used data reported in the Brazilian Mandatory Notifiable Diseases Information System from 2016 to 2019 in Paraná, Brazil. We compared sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory variables between pregnant and non-pregnant women. Hospitalization and disease severity classification (Dengue, Dengue with warning signs, Severe Dengue) were considered outcome variables.

RESULTS

The two groups had differences in the year of notification, age distribution, and region of residence. Laboratory investigation was more frequent among pregnant women, and DENV-2 prevailed in both groups. The risks of hospitalization and development of Severe Dengue were higher in pregnant women. There were no deaths observed among pregnant women.

CONCLUSION

This study identified pregnancy as a risk factor for an increase in the severity of DENV infection. It reinforces the importance of identifying early signs of complication, close monitoring, and adequate treatment for pregnant women.

Development and Characterization of a Multiplex Assay to Quantify Complement-Fixing Antibodies against Dengue Virus

Antibodies capable of activating the complement system (CS) when bound with antigen are referred to as "complement-fixing antibodies" and are involved in protection against Flaviviruses. A complement-fixing antibody test has been used in the past to measure the ability of dengue virus (DENV)-specific serum antibodies to activate the CS. As originally developed, the test is time-consuming, cumbersome, and has limited sensitivity for DENV diagnosis. Here, we developed and characterized a novel multiplex anti-DENV complement-fixing assay based on the Luminex platform to quantitate serum antibodies against all four serotypes (DENV1-4) that activate the CS based on their ability to fix the complement component 1q (C1q). The assay demonstrated good reproducibility and showed equivalent performance to a DENV microneutralization assay that has been used to determine DENV serostatus. In non-human primates, antibodies produced in response to primary DENV1-4 infection induced C1q fixation on homologous and heterologous serotypes. Inter-serotype cross-reactivity was associated with homology of the envelope protein. Interestingly, the antibodies produced following vaccination against Zika virus fixed C1q on DENV. The anti-DENV complement fixing antibody assay represents an alternative approach to determine the quality of functional antibodies produced following DENV natural infection or vaccination and a biomarker for dengue serostatus, while providing insights about immunological cross-reactivity among different Flaviviruses.

Prevalence of arbovirus antibodies in young healthy adult population in Brazil

Background

The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are a cause for worldwide concern. The introduction of Zika and Chikungunya diseases in the Americas has exposed unforeseen medical and logistical challenges for public health systems. Moreover, the lack of preventive measures and vaccination against known and emerging mosquito-transmitted pathogens, and the occurrence of unanticipated clinical complications, has had an enormous social and economic impact on the affected populations. In this study, we aimed to measure the seroprevalence of endemic and emerging viral pathogens in military personnel stationed in Manaus, Amazonas state.

Methods

We measured the seropositivity of antibodies against 19 endemic and emerging viruses in a healthy military personnel group using a hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA).

Results

Overall, DENV positivity was 60.4%, and 30.9% of the individuals reacted against ZIKV. Also, 46.6%, 54.7%, 51.3% and 48.7% individuals reacted against West Nile virus (WNV), Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), Ilheus virus (ILHV) and Rocio virus (ROCV), respectively. Individuals with high DENV HIA titer reacted more frequently with ZIKV or WNV compared to those with low HIA titers. Observed cross-reactivity between Flaviviruses varied depending on the virus serogroup. Additionally, 0.6% and 0.3% individuals were seropositive for Oropouche virus (OROV) and Catu virus (CATUV) from the family Peribunyaviridae, respectively. All samples were negative for Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV), Western Equine Encephalomyelitis virus (WEEV), Mayaro virus (MAYV), Mucambo virus (MUCV) and CHIKV from the family Togaviridae.

Conclusions

A high proportion of individuals in our high-risk population (~ 60%) lacked antibodies against major endemic and emerging viruses, which makes them susceptible for further infections. Military personnel serving in the Amazon region could serve as sentinels to strengthen global infectious disease surveillance, particularly in remote areas.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04901-4.

Epidemiologic History and Genetic Diversity Origins of Chikungunya and Dengue Viruses, Paraguay

Paraguay has been severely affected by emergent Zika and chikungunya viruses, and dengue virus is endemic. To learn more about the origins of genetic diversity and epidemiologic history of these viruses in Paraguay, we deployed portable sequencing technologies to strengthen genomic surveillance and determine the evolutionary and epidemic history of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Samples stored at the Paraguay National Central Laboratory were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Among 33 virus genomes generated, we identified 2 genotypes of chikungunya and 2 serotypes of dengue virus that circulated in Paraguay during 2014–2018; the main source of these virus lineages was estimated to be Brazil. The evolutionary history inferred by our analyses precisely matched the available travel history of the patients. The genomic surveillance approach used was valuable for describing the epidemiologic history of arboviruses and can be used to determine the origins and evolution of future arbovirus outbreaks.

Association between socio-environmental factors, coverage by family health teams, and rainfall in the spatial distribution of Zika virus infection in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection caused outbreak in Brazil, in 2015 and 2016. Disorganized urban growth, facilitates the concentration of numerous susceptible and infected individuals. It is useful to understand the mechanisms that can favor the increase in ZIKV incidence, such as areas with wide socioeconomic and environmental diversity. Therefore, the study analyzed the spatial distribution of ZIKV in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016, and associations between the incidence per 1000 inhabitants and socio-environmental factors.

METHODS

The census tracts were used as the analytical units reported ZIKV cases among the city's inhabitants. Local Empirical Bayesian method was used to control the incidence rates' instability effect. The spatial autocorrelation was verified with Moran's Index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Spearman correlation matrix was used to indicate possible collinearity. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SAR), and Spatial Error Model (CAR) were used to analyze the relationship between ZIKV and socio-environmental factors.

RESULTS

The SAR model exhibited the best parameters: R2 = 0.44, Log-likelihood = - 7482, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 14,980. In this model, mean income between 1 and 2 minimum wages was possible risk factors for Zika occurrence in the localities. Household conditions related to adequate water supply and the existence of public sewage disposal were associated with lower ZIKV cumulative incidence, suggesting possible protective factors against the occurrence of ZIKV in the localities. The presence of the Family Health Strategy in the census tracts was positively associated with the ZIKV cumulative incidence. However, the results show that mean income less than 1 minimum wage were negatively associated with higher ZIKV cumulative incidence.

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate the importance of socio-environmental variables in the dynamics of ZIKV transmission and the relevance for the development of control strategies.

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years.

Repeated exposure to dengue virus elicits robust cross neutralizing antibodies against Zika virus in residents of Northeastern Thailand

Zika virus (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) are antigenically related mosquito-borne flaviviruses. ZIKV is becoming increasingly prevalent in DENV-endemic regions, raising the possibility that pre-existing immunity to one virus could modulate the response to a heterologous virus, although whether this would be beneficial or detrimental is unclear. Here, we analyzed sera from residents of a DENV-endemic region of Thailand to determine the prevalence of DENV-elicited antibodies capable of cross-neutralizing ZIKV. Sixty-one participants who were asymptomatic and unselected for viral serostatus were enrolled. Among them, 52 and 51 were seropositive for IgG antibody against DENV or ZIKV E proteins (ELISA assay), respectively. Notably, 44.23% (23/52) of DENV seropositive participants had serological evidence of multiple exposures to DENV, and these subjects had strikingly higher titers and broader reactivities of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against ZIKV and DENV heterotypes compared with participants with serological evidence of a single DENV infection (25/52, 48.1%). In total, 17 of the 61 participants (27.9%) had NAbs against ZIKV and all four DENV serotypes, and an additional 9 (14.8%) had NAbs against ZIKV and DENV1, 2, and 3. NAbs against DENV2 were the most prevalent (44/61, 72.1%) followed by DENV3 (38/61, 62.3%) and DENV1 (36/61, 59.0%). Of note, anti-ZIKV NAbs were more prevalent than anti-DENV4 NAbs (27/61, 44.3% and 21/61, 34.4%, respectively). Primary ZIKV infection was detected in two participants, confirming that ZIKV co-circulates in this region. Thus, residents of DENV-endemic regions with repeated exposure to DENV have higher titers of NAbs against ZIKV than individuals with only a single DENV exposure.

A prospective, multicentre, cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue illness in households from selected communities in Brazil (2014-2018)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of dengue infection across geographically distinct areas of Brazil.

METHODS

This prospective, household-based, cohort study enrolled participants in five areas and followed them up for up to 4 years (2014-2018). Dengue seroprevalence was assessed at each scheduled visit. Suspected dengue cases were identified through enhanced passive and active surveillance. Acute symptomatic dengue infection was confirmed through reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction in combination with an antigenic assay (non-structural protein 1) and serology.

RESULTS

Among 3300 participants enrolled, baseline seroprevalence was 76.2%, although only 23.3% of participants reported a history of dengue. Of 1284 suspected symptomatic dengue cases detected, 50 (3.9%) were laboratory-confirmed. Based on 8166.5 person-years (PY) of follow-up, the incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infection (primary endpoint) was 6.1 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.5, 8.1). Incidence varied substantially in different years (1.8-7.4 per 1000 PY). The incidence of inapparent primary dengue infection was substantially higher: 41.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 31.1, 54.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings, highlighting that the incidence of dengue infection is underestimated in Brazil, will inform the design and implementation of future dengue vaccine trials.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01751139.

Original Article: Decline of notified dengue infections in Indonesia in 2017: Discussion of the possible determinants

This study was conducted to quantify the trend in dengue notifications in the country in 2017 and to explore the possible determinants. Annual nation-wide dengue notification data were obtained from the National Disease Surveillance of Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Annual incidence rate (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR) in 2017 and the previous years were quantified and compared. Correlations between annual larva free index (LFI), implementation coverage of integrated vector management (IVM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (Niño3.4), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Zika virus seropositivity and the percent change in IR and CFR of dengue were examined. The change of dengue IR and CFRs were mapped. In 2017, dengue IR was declined by 71% (22.55 per 100,000 population) compared to 2016 (77.96 per 100,000 population) while the CFR was slightly reduced from 0.79% to 0.75%. Reduction in IR and CFR occurred in 94.1% and 70.1% out of 34 provinces, respectively. The trend of dengue IR seems to be influenced by Niño3.4 but there is no clear evidence that Niño3.4 is the main reason for dengue reduction in 2017. It is difficult to elucidate that the reduction of dengue in 2017 was associated with previous Zika outbreaks. In conclusion, there was a significant reduction on dengue notifications in Indonesia in 2017. Further investigation is needed to look at the role of climate on the decline of dengue IR at finer temporal scale. In addition, study on the role of cross-protective immunity generated by Zika infection on dengue incidence is also warranted.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

Modeling the association between Aedes aegypti ovitrap egg counts, multi-scale remotely sensed environmental data and arboviral cases at Puntarenas, Costa Rica (2017-2018)

Problems with vector surveillance are a major barrier for the effective control of vector-borne disease transmission through Latin America. Here, we present results from a 80-week longitudinal study where Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) ovitraps were monitored weekly at 92 locations in Puntarenas, a coastal city in Costa Rica with syndemic Zika, chikungunya and dengue transmission. We used separate models to investigate the association of either Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases or Ae. aegypti egg counts with remotely sensed environmental variables. We also evaluated whether Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases were associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Using cross-correlation and time series modeling, we found that arboviral cases were not significantly associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Through model selection we found that cases had a non-linear response to multi-scale (1-km and 30-m resolution) measurements of temperature standard deviation (SD) with a lag of up to 4 weeks, while simultaneously increasing with finely-grained NDVI (30-m resolution). Meanwhile, median ovitrap Ae. aegypti egg counts increased, and respectively decreased, with temperature SD (1-km resolution) and EVI (30-m resolution) with a lag of 6 weeks. A synchrony analysis showed that egg counts had a travelling wave pattern, with synchrony showing cyclic changes with distance, a pattern not observed in remotely sensed data with 30-m and 10-m resolution. Spatially, using generalized additive models, we found that eggs were more abundant at locations with higher temperatures and where EVI was leptokurtic during the study period. Our results suggest that, in Puntarenas, remotely sensed environmental variables are associated with both Ae. aegypti-borne arbovirus transmission and Ae. aegypti egg counts from ovitraps.

Zika and Dengue Interactions in the Context of a Large Dengue Vaccine Clinical Trial in Latin America

A phase III dengue vaccine trial including 9- to 16-year-olds in Latin America (NCT01374516) was ongoing at the time of a Zika outbreak. We explored interactions between dengue and Zika, in the context of dengue vaccination. Symptomatic virologically confirmed Zika (VCZ) was evaluated using acute-phase sera from febrile participants (January 2013-March 2018). Neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) were evaluated pre- and post-Zika outbreak (months 25 and 72) in 2,000 randomly selected participants. Baseline dengue serostatus was determined using the plaque reduction neutralization test or inferred post hoc using nonstructural protein 1 IgG ELISA at M13 (case-cohort analysis). Vaccine efficacy against VCZ and serologically suspected Zika (SSZ) was estimated. Overall, 239/10,157 (2.4%) acute-phase samples were VCZ positive during the study. Dengue vaccine efficacy against VCZ was 27.8% (95% CI: 0.3; 47.7) among baseline dengue-seropositive participants. No vaccine effect was evident against SSZ. Zika antibody GMTs increased from pre- to post-Zika epidemic, with smaller increases observed for participants who were dengue seropositive at baseline than for those who were dengue seronegative: post-/pre-Zika GMT ratios for baseline dengue-seropositive participants were 21.5 (vaccine group) and 30.8 (placebo); and for dengue seronegatives, 88.1 and 89.5, respectively. Dengue antibody GMTs post-Zika were higher in dengue vaccine and placebo recipients with SSZ than those without SSZ in both dengue seropositives and seronegatives. Dengue vaccine did not enhance symptomatic Zika illness in dengue-seropositive individuals, rather it reduced the risk of VCZ. Zika infection boosted preexisting vaccine-induced or naturally occurring dengue-neutralizing antibodies.

Asynchronicity of endemic and emerging mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in the Dominican Republic

Mosquito-borne viruses threaten the Caribbean due to the region's tropical climate and seasonal reception of international tourists. Outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika have demonstrated the rapidity with which these viruses can spread. Concurrently, dengue fever cases have climbed over the past decade. Sustainable disease control measures are urgently needed to quell virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks. Here, to improve upon current control methods, we analyze temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018. The viruses that cause these outbreaks are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are sensitive to seasonal climatological variability. We evaluate whether climate and the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue outbreaks could explain patterns of emerging disease outbreaks. We find that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengue outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.

Changes in the dynamics of dengue incidence in South and Central America are possibly due to cross-population immunity after Zika virus epidemics

OBJECTIVE

We tested the hypothesis that Zika virus (ZIKV) immunity may protect against dengue virus (DENV) infection, disease severity or human amplification, based on analysis of epidemiological data from our long-term surveillance study (2009-2016) in the city of Salvador, Brazil, that indicated a substantial reduction in the frequency of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases following the Zika outbreak. To assess whether similar patterns were observed across the Americas, we did a broader explorative investigation of historical series (2004 to 2019) of suspected cases of dengue fever, covering 20 DENV-endemic South and Central American countries.

METHODS

We used segmented linear regressions of single group interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to evaluate whether the Zika epidemic had a statistical effect on the trends of annual dengue incidence.

RESULTS

We observed in our 16-year historical series that in all countries, the incidence of dengue exhibited periodic oscillations over time, with a general trend of statistically significant increase during the pre-Zika period overall and for 11 of the 20 countries. Following the peak of the first population exposure to ZIKV in the Americas, in 2016, the overall rate of reported dengue cases in 2017 and 2018 in the countries under study sharply dropped (P < 0.05) and was the lowest reported since 2005. Individually in each country, a statistically significant reduction in the annual dengue incidence beginning in 2016 or in 2017-2018 occurred in 13 of the 20 studied countries. However, in 2019, reports of suspected dengue cases increased across the Americas. In Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Honduras, dengue incidence was >5 times higher in 2019 than in 2017 and 2018, and, in 2019, they had the greater dengue incidence than in all previous years throughout the historical series.

CONCLUSIONS

The widespread decline in suspected dengue cases recorded in 2017 and 2018 lends further support to our previous epidemiological hypothesis of ZIKV-induced cross-species immunity to DENV. However, the cross-protection appears to be transient (around 2 years). Long-term, prospective follow-ups of dengue reports are needed to confirm (or refute) these findings, which could have significant public health implications, in particular regarding DENV vaccine development and application.

Spatiotemporal dynamics, risk areas and social determinants of dengue in Northeastern Brazil, 2014-2017: an ecological study

Background

Dengue fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The Northeast region of Brazil is characterized by having one of the highest dengue rates in the country, in addition to being considered the poorest region. Here, we aimed to identify spatial clusters with the highest dengue risk, as well as to analyze the temporal behavior of the incidence rate and the effects of social determinants on the disease transmission dynamic in Northeastern Brazil.

Methods

This is an ecological study carried out with all confirmed cases of dengue in the Northeast Brazil between 2014 and 2017. Data were extracted from the National Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Local empirical Bayesian model, Moran statistics and spatial scan statistics were applied. The association between dengue incidence rate and social determinants was tested using Moran’s bivariate correlation.

Results

A total of 509 261 cases of dengue were confirmed in the Northeast during the study period, 53.41% of them were concentrated in Pernambuco and Ceará states. Spatial analysis showed a heterogeneous distribution of dengue cases in the region, with the highest rates in the east coast. Four risk clusters were observed, involving 815 municipalities (45.45%). Moreover, social indicators related to population density, education, income, housing, and social vulnerability showed a spatial correlation with the dengue incidence rate.

Conclusions

This study provides information on the spatial dynamics of dengue in northeastern Brazil and its relationship with social determinants and can be used in the formulation of public health policies to reduce the impact of the disease in vulnerable populations.

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index on Chikungunya Infection in Indonesia

The aim of this study was to assess the possible association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) on chikungunya incidence overtime, including the significant reduction in cases that was observed in 2017 in Indonesia. Monthly nation-wide chikungunya case reports were obtained from the Indonesian National Disease Surveillance database, and incidence rates (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR) were calculated. Monthly data of Niño3.4 (indicator used to represent the ENSO) and DMI between 2011 and 2017 were also collected. Correlations between monthly IR and CFR and Niño3.4 and DMI were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation. We found that chikungunya case reports declined from 1972 cases in 2016 to 126 cases in 2017, a 92.6% reduction; the IR reduced from 0.67 to 0.05 cases per 100,000 population. No deaths associated with chikungunya have been recorded since its re-emergence in Indonesia in 2001. There was no significant correlation between monthly Niño3.4 and chikungunya incidence with r = -0.142 (95%CI: -0.320-0.046), p = 0.198. However, there was a significant negative correlation between monthly DMI and chikungunya incidence, r = -0.404 (95%CI: -0.229--0.554) with p < 0.001. In conclusion, our initial data suggests that the climate variable, DMI but not Niño3.4, is likely associated with changes in chikungunya incidence. Therefore, further analysis with a higher resolution of data, using the cross-wavelet coherence approach, may provide more robust evidence.

The Endless Challenges of Arboviral Diseases in Brazil

In this Editorial, we list and discuss some of the main challenges faced by the population and public health authorities in Brazil concerning arbovirus infections, including the occurrence of concurrent epidemics like the ongoing SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic.

A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014-2018

The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 - 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.

Use of a Blockade-of-Binding ELISA and Microneutralization Assay to Evaluate Zika Virus Serostatus in Dengue-Endemic Areas

Zika virus (ZIKV) serological diagnostics are compromised in areas where dengue viruses (DENV) co-circulate because of their high levels of protein sequence homology. Here, we describe the characterization of a Zika blockade-of-binding ELISA (Zika BOB) and a Zika microneutralization assay (Zika MN) for the detection of ZIKV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1)–specific antibodies and ZIKV neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Zika BOB and Zika MN cutoffs were established as 10 and 100 endpoint titers, respectively, using samples collected pre- and post-virologically confirmed ZIKV infection from subjects living in DENV-endemic areas. Specificity of the assays was equally high, whereas sensitivity of Zika BOB was lower than that of Zika MN, especially in samples collected > 6 months post-infection. Immunosurveillance analysis, using combined results from both Zika BOB and Zika MN, carried out also in DENV-endemic regions in Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Puerto Rico before (2013–2014) and after (2017–2018) ZIKV introduction in the Americas suggests unapparent ZIKV seroprevalence rates ranged from 25% to 80% over the specified period of time in the regions investigated.

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

We review and contrast the evidence for an effect of amplifying host herd immunity on circulation and human exposure to arboviruses. Herd immunity of short-lived West Nile virus avian amplifying hosts appears to play a limited role in levels of enzootic circulation and spillover infections of humans, which are not amplifiers. In contrast, herd immunity of nonhuman primate hosts for enzootic Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses is much stronger and appears to regulate to a large extent the periodicity of sylvatic amplification in Africa. Following the recent Zika and chikungunya pandemics, human herd immunity in the Americas quickly rose to ∼50% in many regions, although seroprevalence remains patchy. Modeling from decades of chikungunya circulation in Asia suggests that this level of herd immunity will suppress for many years major chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the Americas, followed by smaller outbreaks as herd immunity cycles with a periodicity of up to several decades.

Dengue in northeastern Brazil: a spatial and temporal perspective

INTRODUCTION:

The state of Ceará (Brazilian Northeast) has a high incidence of dengue. Therefore, we aimed to characterize the temporal patterns and spatial distribution of dengue cases in Ceará during 2001-2019.

METHODS:

A spatiotemporal ecological study was performed with secondary data. Time-trend analysis was performed using a segmented log-linear regression model to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and the annual percentage change (APC) in incidence of dengue. We also performed spatiotemporal analysis to identify the place, time, and relative risk (RR) of dengue clusters.

RESULTS:

There were 539,653 dengue cases. The AAPC reduced over time (-9.5%; 95% confidance interval [CI]: -18.3; -0.3). Three trends were identified-2001-2004: APC=-20.9% (95% CI: -65.1 to 44.8), 2005-2015: APC=7.9% (95% CI: -6.0 to 98.9), and 2016-2019: APC=-48.8% (95% CI: -83.0 to -6.1). During 2001-2007, 10 significant clusters were identified (RR=3.57-14.38: n=4 and RR=0.05-0.39: n=6). During 2008-2013, there was 1 cluster in the western region (RR= 3.40) and four other clusters (RR=0.02-0.15). The last period presented 5 high-RR clusters (RR=2.95-9.24). The low-RR clusters were located in the central-north, central-south, south, and northwest regions. However, the central-west region remained a high-RR cluster region throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS:

Dengue showed a decreasing incidence. During the epidemic years, the southern, eastern, and western regions presented high-risk clusters. Introduction of a new dengue serotype in a low-RR area can cause explosive outbreaks due to population susceptibility.

Spatial distribution of dengue in Honduras during 2016-2019 using a geographic information systems (GIS)-Dengue epidemic implications for public health and travel medicine

BACKGROUND

After serious epidemics of chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) in the Americas, dengue (DENV) have reemerged in most countries. We analyzed the incidence, incidence rates, and evolution of DENV cases in Honduras from 2015 to 2018 and the ongoing 2019 epidemic.

METHODS

Using epidemiological weeks (EW) surveillance data on the DENV in Honduras, we estimated incidence rates (cases/100,000 population), and developed maps at national, departmental, and municipal levels.

RESULTS

From January 1, 2016 to July 21, 2019, a total of 109,557 cases of DENV were reported, 28,603 in 2019, with an incidence rate of 312.32 cases/100,000 population this year; 0.13% laboratory-confirmed. The highest peak was reached on the EW 28°, 2019 (5299 cases; 57.89 cases/100,000 population). The department with the highest number of cases and incidence rate was Cortes (8404 cases, 479.68 cases/100,000 population in 2019).

DISCUSSION

The pattern and evolution of DENV epidemic in 2019 in Honduras has been similar to that which occurred for in 2015. As previously reported, this epidemic involved the north and central areas of the country predominantly, reaching municipality incidences there >1000 cases/100,000 population (or 1%). Studies using geographical information systems linked with clinical disease characteristics are necessary to obtain accurate epidemiological data for public health systems. Such information is also useful for assessment of risk for travelers who visit specific areas in a destination country.

Dengue in Santander State, Colombia: fluctuations in the prevalence of virus serotypes are linked to dengue incidence and genetic diversity of the circulating viruses

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the link between fluctuations in the prevalence of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and the number of dengue cases in the metropolitan area of Bucaramanga, Santander State, Colombia, in the 2007-2010 and 2014-2017 periods.

METHOD

Viruses were isolated from febrile patient samples by direct application to C6/36-HT cells and typed using monoclonal antibodies. We performed autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses to determine whether fluctuations in the prevalence of DENV serotypes and dengue cases were correlated. Full envelope (E) gene sequences were employed to examine the genetic diversity of serotypes circulating by using a phylogenetic approach.

RESULTS

All four dengue virus serotypes were detected. DENV-1 was the dominant serotype in both periods followed by DENV-3 or DENV-2 depending on the period; DENV-4 was the least prevalent virus in both periods. Cross-correlation analyses suggest a temporal relation between the fluctuations in the prevalence of DENV serotypes, which were almost simultaneous (lag = 0) or related to recent past fluctuations (lag > 1.0) in the number of dengue cases. Data suggest that a sustained predominance of DENV-1, an increase of the DENV-4 prevalence, and a switch from DENV-3 to DENV-2 could be linked to an outbreak. Circulating viruses were grouped into Genotype V, Asia/American III and II for DENV-1, -2, -3 and -4, respectively; intragenotypic diversity was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

The present work highlights the need of comprehensive studies on dynamics of DENV in Colombia to understand transmission of dengue and evaluate the effectiveness of a vaccination programme.

Characterization of dengue cases among patients with an acute illness, Central Department, Paraguay

BACKGROUND

In 2018, Paraguay experienced a large dengue virus (DENV) outbreak. The primary objective of this study was to characterize dengue cases in the Central Department, where the majority of cases occur, and identify factors associated with DENV infection.

METHODS

Patients were enrolled from January-May 2018 if they presented with a suspected arboviral illness. Acute-phase specimens (≤8 days after symptom onset) were tested using rRT-PCR, a rapid diagnostic test for DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) and anti-DENV IgM and IgG, and ELISA for IgG against NS1 from Zika virus (ZIKV).

RESULTS

A total of 231 patients were enrolled (95.2% adults) at two sites: emergency care and an outpatient clinical site. Patients included 119 (51.5%) dengue cases confirmed by rRT-PCR (n = 115, 96.6%) and/or the detection of NS1 and anti-DENV IgM (n = 4, 3.4%). DENV-1 was the predominant serotype (109/115, 94.8%). Epidemiologically, dengue cases and non-dengue cases were similar, though dengue cases were less likely to reside in a house/apartment or report a previous dengue case. Clinical and laboratory findings associated with dengue included red eyes, absence of sore throat, leucopenia and thrombocytopenia. At an emergency care site, 26% of dengue cases (26/100) required hospitalization. In univariate analysis, hospitalization was associated with increased viral load, anti-DENV IgG, and thrombocytopenia. Among dengue cases that tested positive for IgG against ZIKV NS1, the odds of DENV NS1 detection in the acute phase were decreased 10-fold (OR 0.1, 0.0-0.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from a predominantly adult population demonstrate clinical and laboratory factors associated with DENV infections and the potential severity of dengue in this group. The combination of viral load and specific IgG antibodies warrant further study as a prognostic to identify patients at risk for severe disease.

Time elapsed between Zika and dengue virus infections affects antibody and T cell responses

Zika virus (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) are co-endemic in many parts of the world, but the impact of ZIKV infection on subsequent DENV infection is not well understood. Here we show in rhesus macaques that the time elapsed after ZIKV infection affects the immune response to DENV infection. We show that previous ZIKV exposure increases the magnitude of the antibody and T cell responses against DENV. The time interval between ZIKV and subsequent DENV infection further affects the immune response. A mid-convalescent period of 10 months after ZIKV infection results in higher and more durable antibody and T cell responses to DENV infection than a short period of 2 months. In contrast, previous ZIKV infection does not affect DENV viremia or pro-inflammatory status. Collectively, we find no evidence of a detrimental effect of ZIKV immunity in a subsequent DENV infection. This supports the implementation of ZIKV vaccines that could also boost immunity against future DENV epidemics.

Geographical trends of chikungunya and Zika in the Colombian Amazonian gateway department, Caqueta, 2015-2018 - Implications for public health and travel medicine

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) significantly affected Latin America in the period 2015-2017. Most studies were reported from urban areas of Brazil and Colombia. In this paper we estimate Incidence rates for CHIKV and ZIKV in Caqueta, the Amazonian gateway area of Colombia, from 2015 to 2018.

METHODS

Using surveillance data of CHIKV and ZIKV in Caqueta, Colombia, incidence rates were estimated (cases/100,000 population). Sixteen geographical information systems (GIS)-based municipal maps were developed. GIS software used was Kosmo 3.0®.

RESULTS

From 1st of January 2015 to the 24th of November 2018, 825 cases of CHIK and 1079 of ZIKV were reported, yielding cumulated incidence rates of 169.42 and 221.59 cases/100,000 population respectively. In 2016, 48.7% of the CHIKV cases (402) and 96.6% of the ZIKV cases (1042) were reported. The highest number of both arboviral diseases occurred at Florencia (capital department city), 225 cases for CHIKV (127.17 cases/100,000 pop.) and 611 for ZIKV (345.34 cases/100,000 pop.).

DISCUSSION

The temporo-spatial distribution of CHIKV and ZIKV infections in Caquetá reflected the pattern of concurrent epidemics, especially in 2016. Studies using GIS-linked maps are necessary to attain accurate epidemiological analyses for public health decisions. That is also useful for an epidemiologically based assessment of traveler risks when visiting specific areas in destination countries.

Recent advances in understanding dengue

This is a selective review of recent publications on dengue clinical features, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine development placed in a context of observations made over the past half century. Four dengue viruses (DENVs) are transmitted by urban cycle mosquitoes causing diseases whose nature and severity are influenced by interacting factors such as virus, age, immune status of the host, and human genetic variability. A phenomenon that controls the kinetics of DENV infection, antibody-dependent enhancement, best explains the correlation of the vascular permeability syndrome with second heterotypic DENV infections and infection in the presence of passively acquired antibodies. Based on growing evidence in vivo and in vitro, the tissue-damaging DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) is responsible for most of the pathophysiological features of severe dengue. This review considers the contribution of hemophagocytic histiocytosis syndrome to cases of severe dengue, the role of movement of humans in dengue epidemiology, and modeling and planning control programs and describes a country-wide survey for dengue infections in Bangladesh and efforts to learn what controls the clinical outcome of dengue infections. Progress and problems with three tetravalent live-attenuated vaccines are reviewed. Several research mysteries remain: why is the risk of severe disease during second heterotypic DENV infection so low, why is the onset of vascular permeability correlated with defervescence, and what are the crucial components of protective immunity?