Influence of weather and climate on cryptosporidiosis-A review

Food and Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis from a One Health Perspective: A Comprehensive Review

A sharp rise in the global population and improved lifestyles has led to questions about the quality of both food and water. Among protozoan parasites, Cryptosporidium is of great importance in this regard. Hence, Cryptosporidium's associated risk factors, its unique characteristics compared to other protozoan parasites, its zoonotic transmission, and associated economic losses in the public health and livestock sectors need to be focused on from a One Health perspective, including collaboration by experts from all three sectors. Cryptosporidium, being the fifth largest food threat, and the second largest cause of mortality in children under five years of age, is of great significance. The contamination of vegetables, fresh fruits, juices, unpasteurized raw milk, uncooked meat, and fish by Cryptosporidium oocysts occurs through infected food handlers, sewage-based contamination, agricultural effluents, infected animal manure being used as biofertilizer, etc., leading to severe foodborne outbreaks. The only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drug, Nitazoxanide (NTZ), provides inconsistent results in all groups of patients, and currently, there is no vaccine against it. The prime concerns of this review are to provide a deep insight into the Cryptosporidium's global burden, associated water- and foodborne outbreaks, and some future perspectives in an attempt to effectively manage this protozoal disease. A thorough literature search was performed to organize the most relevant, latest, and quantified data, justifying the title. The estimation of its true burden, strategies to break the transmission pathways and life cycle of Cryptosporidium, and the search for vaccine targets through genome editing technology represent some future research perspectives.

Molecular detection of Cryptosporidium parvum in wild rodents (Phyllotis darwini) inhabiting protected and rural transitional areas in north-central Chile

Wild rodents often harbor Cryptosporidium species that can be transmitted to multiple mammal hosts. In Chile, little is known about Cryptosporidium in wild rodents, and available studies have been focused on morphological findings with no molecular-based evidence. A longitudinal survey was conducted between 2021 and 2022 to investigate the occurrence of Cryptosporidium spp. in populations of the Darwin's leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) living in protected and rural transitional areas in north-central Chile, using staining and molecular methods. A total of 247 fecal samples were collected and examined by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) staining test, 54 of which were positive for Cryptosporidium-like oocysts. Molecular analyses were carried out by PCR of the partial 18S ribosomal RNA and 60 kDa glycoprotein (gp60) genes. Cryptosporidium infection was confirmed in 34 samples (13.7 %) based on the PCR amplification, and individual (i.e., sex, and body mass index) and ecological variables (i.e., type of site and season) were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Using the nucleotide sequencing of the partial 18S rRNA gene, Cryptosporidium parvum was identified in nine isolates. Also, C. parvum subgenotype family IIa was determined in seven samples by the partial gp60 gene, including the subtype IIaA17G4R1 in two samples. This is the first molecular evidence of Cryptosporidium parvum IIa in Phyllotis darwini in Chile. These results indicate potential cross-species transmition between wild rodents and domestic-wild animals in north-central Chile. More research is needed to understand better the role of wild rodents in the transmission of Cryptosporidium spp. in Chile.

Investigating the relationship between extreme weather and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in Colorado: A multi-decade study using distributed-lag nonlinear models

Environmentally-mediated protozoan diseases like cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis are likely to be highly impacted by extreme weather, as climate-related conditions like temperature and precipitation have been linked to their survival, distribution, and overall transmission success. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis infection using monthly weather data and case reports from Colorado counties over a twenty-one year period. Data on reportable diseases and weather among Colorado counties were collected using the Colorado Electronic Disease Reporting System (CEDRS) and the Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet) Version 3 dataset, respectively. We used a conditional Poisson distributed-lag nonlinear modeling approach to estimate the lagged association (between 0 and 12-months) between relative temperature and precipitation extremes and the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis infection in Colorado counties between 1997 and 2017, relative to the risk found at average values of temperature and precipitation for a given county and month. We found distinctly different patterns in the associations between temperature extremes and cryptosporidiosis, versus temperature extremes and giardiasis. When maximum or minimum temperatures were high (90th percentile) or very high (95th percentile), we found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis risk, but a significant decrease in giardiasis risk, relative to risk at the county and calendar-month mean. Conversely, we found very similar relationships between precipitation extremes and both cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis, which highlighted the prominent role of long-term (>8 months) lags. Our study presents novel insights on the influence that extreme temperature and precipitation can have on parasitic disease transmission in real-world settings. Additionally, we present preliminary evidence that the standard lag periods that are typically used in epidemiological studies to assess the impacts of extreme weather on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis may not be capturing the entire relevant period.

Occurrence and factors associated with Cryptosporidium infection in livestock in three districts of Zambia

Cryptosporidium is one of the most important enteric diarrhoeal parasites that infect humans and animals worldwide. The current study investigated the occurrence and risk factors associated with Cryptosporidium infection in ruminants aged ≤6 months in Monze, Mumbwa, and Lusaka districts of Zambia. Faecal samples were collected from 328 calves, 190 lambs, and 245 goat kids and analysed for Cryptosporidium oocysts using modified Ziehl Neelsen staining. A closed structured questionnaire was used to obtain epidemiological characteristics and potential risk factors for Cryptosporidium infection. The overall occurrence of Cryptosporidium was 7.9% (60/763), while that in calves, lambs and goat kids was 14.5% (47/328), 5.3% (10/190), and 1.2% (3/245) respectively. Watery/pasty stool and sampling during the rainy season were independently associated with increased risk of infection. In calves, the odds of infection increased during the rainy season, while daily kraal cleaning reduced the infection risk. Lambs showed increased odds of infection with pasty/watery stool and male sex, whereas the wearing of protective clothing by handlers significantly reduced the risk. There were district variations in infection occurrence with Mumbwa district having higher prevalence. The findings of this study show that livestock in Zambia continue to be frequently infected with Cryptosporidium. Protective measures and appropriate farm cleanliness should be implemented in control of this infection. Regional and host-species-specific variations emphasize the need for targeted interventions. These findings, therefore, contribute to effective strategies for Cryptosporidium control, promoting good livestock health and management.

Molecular characterization of Cryptosporidium spp. in Bactrian camels (Camelus bactrianus) from Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China

Introduction

Cryptosporidium spp. is a significant zoonotic parasite. The prevalence and infection characteristics of Cryptosporidium spp. in Bactrian camels in Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture have yet to be fully understood. Thus, the molecular epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis in camels was investigated in this region.

Methods

A total of 1,455 fecal samples were collected from 6 counties in three regions (Altay, Tacheng, and Yili) in Yili Prefecture. Nested PCR targeting the small subunit ribosomal RNA (ssu rRNA) gene was used to identify the species or genotypes of Cryptosporidium infection in camels. For C. parvum positive samples, the subtypes were identified using the 60-kDa glycoprotein (gp60) gene.

Results and discussion

The overall infection rate was 8.7% (126/1,455), ranging from 5.6% to 11.7% in different regions, and 4.2% to 15.8% in different counties. A significant difference was observed amongst the counties (p < 0.001). Three species were detected, namely C. andersoni (65.1%, 82/126), C. parvum (34.1%, 43/126), and C. occultus (0.8%, 1/126). Three C. parvum subtypes, If-like-A15G2 (n = 29), IIdA15G1 (n = 4), and IIdA19G1(n = 1) were detected, with If-like-A15G2 being the most prevalent subtype. Camels aged 3-12 months exhibited the highest infection rate (11.4%, 44/387), with no significant difference among age groups (p > 0.05). C. parvum was predominant in camels under 3 months, while C. andersoni prevailed in camels over 3 months. There was an extremely significant difference observed among seasons (p < 0.001), summer had the highest infection rates (16.9%, 61/360). This study collected nearly 1,500 samples and, for the first time, investigated Cryptosporidium spp. infection in camels based on different age groups and seasons. All three Cryptosporidiumspecies identified were zoonotic, posing a potential threat to human health and requiring close attention.

Current and potential future impacts of food- and water-borne parasites in a changing world: A Norwegian perspective

In 2021, the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment published a multi-criteria risk ranking of 20 potentially food-borne pathogens in Norway. The pathogens ranked included five parasite taxa (3 species, one genus, one family): Toxoplasma gondii, Echinococcus multilocularis, Giardia duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., and Anisakidae. Two of these, T. gondii and E. multilocularis, scored very highly (1st and 3rd place, respectively), Cryptosporidium was about midway (9th place), and G. duodenalis and Anisakidae ranked relatively low (15th and 20th place, respectively). Parasites were found, on average, more likely to present an increasing food-borne disease burden in the future than the other pathogens. Here, we review the current impact of these five potentially food-borne parasites in Norway, and factors of potential importance in increasing their future food-borne disease burden. Climate change may affect the contamination of water and fresh produce with transmission stages of the first four parasites, potentially leading to increased infection risk. Alterations in host distribution (potentially due to climate change, but also other factors) may affect the occurrence and distribution of Toxoplasma, Echinococcus, and Anisakidae, and these, coupled with changes in food consumption patterns, could also affect infection likelihood. Transmission of food-borne pathogens is complex, and the relative importance of different pathogens is affected by many factors and will not remain static. Further investigation in, for example, ten-years' time, could provide a different picture of the relative importance of different pathogens. Nevertheless, there is clearly the potential for parasites to exert a greater risk to public health in Norway than currently occurs.

The Role of the School Nurse in Addressing Climate-Associated Illnesses: Water

Climate change is having an unprecedented influence on human health. For example, increased frequency of storms with excessive precipitation may contribute to flooding, which contributes to increased water-related dermatological, gastrointestinal, and respiratory illnesses. Some of these water-related illnesses, which can be transmitted via recreational waterborne pathways, may be seen in school-age children. The purpose of this article is to raise awareness of the impact some recreational water-related illnesses have on school-age children's health and to provide school nurses with information on the signs and symptoms of these illnesses as well as prevention tips nurses may wish to share with parents. This is the third article in a series meant to inform school nurses about illnesses linked to local changes in weather that may be arising from global changes in climate and provide them with the tools they need to safeguard children's health.

Severe weather events and cryptosporidiosis in Aotearoa New Zealand: A case series of space-time clusters

Occurrence of cryptosporidiosis has been associated with weather conditions in many settings internationally. We explored statistical clusters of human cryptosporidiosis and their relationship with severe weather events in New Zealand (NZ). Notified cases of cryptosporidiosis from 1997 to 2015 were obtained from the national surveillance system. Retrospective space-time permutation was used to identify statistical clusters. Cluster data were compared to severe weather events in a national database. SaTScan analysis detected 38 statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters. Around a third (34.2%, 13/38) of these clusters showed temporal and spatial alignment with severe weather events. Of these, nearly half (46.2%, 6/13) occurred in the spring. Only five (38%, 5/13) of these clusters corresponded to a previously reported cryptosporidiosis outbreak. This study provides additional evidence that severe weather events may contribute to the development of some cryptosporidiosis clusters. Further research on this association is needed as rainfall intensity is projected to rise in NZ due to climate change. The findings also provide further arguments for upgrading the quality of drinking water sources to minimize contamination with pathogens from runoff from livestock agriculture.

Cryptosporidium and agriculture: A review

Cryptosporidiosis is a significant contributor to global foodborne and waterborne disease burden. It is a widespread cause of diarrheal diseases that affect humans and animals worldwide. Agricultural environments can become a source of contamination with Cryptosporidium species through faecal material derived from humans and animals. This review aims to report the main findings of scientific research on Cryptosporidium species related to various agricultural sectors, and highlights the risks of cryptosporidiosis in agricultural production, the contamination sources, the importance of animal production in transmission, and the role of farmed animals as hosts of the parasites. Agricultural contamination sources can cause water pollution in groundwater and different surface waters used for drinking, recreational purposes, and irrigation. The application of contaminated manure, faecal sludge management, and irrigation with inadequately treated water are the main concerns associated with foodborne and waterborne cryptosporidiosis related to agricultural activities. The review emphasizes the public health implications of agriculture concerning the transmission risk of Cryptosporidium parasites and the urgent need for a new concept in the agriculture sector. Furthermore, the findings of this review provide valuable information for developing appropriate measures and monitoring strategies to minimize the risk of infection.

Risk factors for Cryptosporidium contamination in Minnesota public supply wells

In a recent monitoring study of Minnesota's public supply wells, Cryptosporidium was commonly detected with 40% of the wells having at least one detection. Risk factors for Cryptosporidium occurrence in drinking water supply wells, beyond surface water influence, remain poorly understood. To address this gap, physical and chemical factors were assessed as potential predictors of Cryptosporidium occurrence in 135 public supply wells in Minnesota. Univariable analysis, regression techniques, and classification trees were used to analyze the data. Many variables were identified as significant risk factors in univariable analysis and several remained significant throughout the succeeding analysis techniques. These factors fell into general categories of well use and construction, aquifer characteristics, and connectedness to the land surface, well capture zones, and land use therein, existence of potential contaminant sources within 200-feet of the well, and variability in the chemical and isotopic parameters measured during the study. These risk categories, and the specific variables and threshold values we have identified, can help guide future research on factors influencing Cryptosporidium contamination of wells and can be used by environmental health programs to develop risk-based sampling plans and design interventions that reduce associated health risks.

Critters and contamination: Zoonotic protozoans in urban rodents and water quality

Rodents represent the single largest group within mammals and host a diverse array of zoonotic pathogens. Urbanisation impacts wild mammals, including rodents, leading to habitat loss but also providing new resources. Urban-adapted (synanthropic) rodents, such as the brown rat (R. norvegicus), black rat (R. rattus), and house mouse (Mus musculus), have long successfully adapted to living close to humans and are known carriers of zoonotic pathogens. Two important enteric, zoonotic protozoan parasites, carried by rodents, include Cryptosporidium and Giardia. Their environmental stages (oocysts/cysts), released in faeces, can contaminate surface and wastewaters, are resistant to common drinking water disinfectants and can cause water-borne related gastritis outbreaks. At least 48 species of Cryptosporidium have been described, with C. hominis and C. parvum responsible for the majority of human infections, while Giardia duodenalis assemblages A and B are the main human-infectious assemblages. Molecular characterisation is crucial to assess the public health risk linked to rodent-related water contamination due to morphological overlap between species. This review explores the global molecular diversity of these parasites in rodents, with a focus on evaluating the zoonotic risk from contamination of water and wasterwater with Cryptosporidium and Giardia oocysts/cysts from synanthropic rodents. Analysis indicates that while zoonotic Cryptosporidium and Giardia are prevalent in farmed and pet rodents, host-specific Cryptosporidium and Giardia species dominate in urban adapted rodents, and therefore the risks posed by these rodents in the transmission of zoonotic Cryptosporidium and Giardia are relatively low. Many knowledge gaps remain however, and therefore understanding the intricate dynamics of these parasites in rodent populations is essential for managing their impact on human health and water quality. This knowledge can inform strategies to reduce disease transmission and ensure safe drinking water in urban and peri‑urban areas.

The One Health Concept

The concept of One Health has been developed as the appreciation that human health is intricately connected to those of other animals and the environment that they inhabit. In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic and noticeable effects of climate change have encouraged national and international cooperation to apply One Health strategies to address key issues of health and welfare. The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals have established targets for health and wellbeing, clean water and sanitation, climate action, as well as sustainability in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The One Health Quadripartite comprises the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH-formerly OIE), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). There are six areas of focus which are Laboratory services, Control of zoonotic diseases, Neglected tropical diseases, Antimicrobial resistance, Food safety and Environmental health. This article discusses the concept of One Health by considering examples of infectious diseases and environmental issues under each of those six headings. Biomedical Scientists, Clinical Scientists and their colleagues working in diagnostic and research laboratories have a key role to play in applying the One Health approach to key areas of healthcare in the 21st Century.

Modeling cryptosporidiosis in humans and cattle: Deterministic and stochastic approaches

Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Cryptosporidium. The disease poses a public and veterinary health problem worldwide. A deterministic model and its corresponding continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic model are developed and analyzed to investigate cryptosporidiosis transmission dynamics in humans and cattle. The basic reproduction number R 0 for the deterministic model and stochastic threshold for the CTMC stochastic model are computed by the next generation matrix method and multitype branching process, respectively. The normalized forward sensitivity index method is used to determine the sensitivity index for each parameter in R 0 . Per capita birth rate of cattle, the rate of cattle to acquire cryptosporidiosis infection from the environment and the rate at which infected cattle shed Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment play an important role in the persistence of the disease whereas Cryptosporidium oocysts natural death rate, cattle recovery rate and cattle natural death rate are most negative sensitive parameters in the dynamics of cryptosporidiosis. Numerical results for CTMC stochastic model show that the likelihood of cryptosporidiosis extinction is high when it arises from an infected human. However, there is a major outbreak if cryptosporidiosis emerges either from infected cattle or from Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment or when it emerges from all three infectious compartments. Therefore to control the disease, control measures should focus on maintaining personal and cattle farm hygiene and decontaminating the environment to destroy Cryptosporidium oocysts.

Cryptosporidiosis threat under climate change in China: prediction and validation of habitat suitability and outbreak risk for human-derived Cryptosporidium based on ecological niche models

BACKGROUND

Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp., and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors. In the present study, the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control.

METHODS

The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011-2019. Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs, namely Maxent, Bioclim, Domain, and Garp. Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Kappa, and True Skill Statistic coefficients. The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986‒2010, and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution. The climate variables for the period 2011‒2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China.

RESULTS

The Maxent model (AUC = 0.95, maximum Kappa = 0.91, maximum TSS = 1.00) fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability. The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins (cloglog value of habitat suitability > 0.9). Under future climate change, non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink, while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly (χ² = 76.641, P < 0.01; χ² = 86.836, P < 0.01), and the main changes will likely be concentrated in the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The Maxent model is applicable in prediction of Cryptosporidium habitat suitability and can achieve excellent simulation results. These results suggest a current high risk of transmission and significant pressure for cryptosporidiosis prevention and control in China. Against a future climate change background, Cryptosporidium may gain more suitable habitats within China. Constructing a national surveillance network could facilitate further elucidation of the epidemiological trends and transmission patterns of cryptosporidiosis, and mitigate the associated epidemic and outbreak risks.

Performance of sewage treatment technologies for the removal of Cryptosporidium sp. and Giardia sp.: Toward water circularity

Cryptosporidium sp. and Giardia sp. are parasites that cause diseases in the population. Most of parasite diseases regarding the consumption of drinking water polluted with sewage are caused by Cryptosporidium sp. or Giardia sp. it is because of the incomplete disinfection of the wastewater treatment. Therefore, in this work the removal or inactivation efficiency of different treatment technologies presented by around 40 scientific studies was evaluated, with a view to water circularity. For Cryptosporidium sp., we conclude that the most efficient secondary technologies are aerobic technologies, which remove between 0.00 and 2.17 log units (Ulog), with activated sludge presenting the greatest efficiency, and that the tertiary technologies with the greatest removal are those that use ultrasound, which reach removal values of 3.17 Ulog. In the case of Giardia sp., the secondary technologies with the greatest removal are anaerobic technologies, with values between 0.00 and 3.80 Ulog, and the tertiary technologies with the greatest removal are those that combine filtration with UV or a chemical disinfection agent. Despite the removal values obtained, the greatest concern remains detecting and quantifying the infectious forms of both parasites in effluents; therefore, although the technologies perform adequately, discharge effluents must be monitored with more sensitive techniques, above all aiming for circularity of the treated water in a context of the water scarcity that affects some parts of the world.

A review of the diversity of Cryptosporidium in Rattus norvegicus, R. rattus and Mus musculus: What we know and challenges for the future

The aim of this paper is to review the diversity of Cryptosporidium species and genotypes infecting synantropic rodents. A total of 27 papers published between 1990 and 2020 assed the presence of Cryptosporidium in these rodents worldwide and described 17 different species and genotypes of Cryptosporidium. A great variation in the prevalence values were observed (0-63%). The most frequent species/genotypes were Rat genotype I and IV for R. norvegicus and Rat genotype II and III R. rattus, while C. tyzzeri was for M. musculus. Cryptosporidium parvum, the second most common species after C. hominis involved in human cryptosporidiosis cases, was the third most detected Cryptosporidium species in R, norvergicus (9.4% of the positive samples) and the 3 rodent species are common host for C. muris, also recognized as zoonotic. Besides, these synanthopic rodents can harbor Cryptosporidium species whose natural hosts are cattle, bovids, pigs, other rodent species, birds and a broad range of mammals. Considering the diversity described so far, it would have a great epidemiological impact to know how the variation of Cryptosporidium species composition along urban-rural gradients is like, including synanthropic rodents, wild and domestic animals and environmental samples, and to analyze the causal factors of such variation.

Prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in Yaks (Bos grunniens) in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cryptosporidium spp., the causative agent of cryptosporidiosis, can infect a variety of hosts. So far, there has been limited information regarding Cryptosporidium spp. infection in yaks (Bos grunniens). Here, we performed the first systematic review and meta-analysis for Cryptosporidium spp. infection in yaks in China. To perform the meta-analysis, five databases (Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Chinese journal database, WanFang Data, PubMed, and ScienceDirect) were employed to search for studies related to the prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in yaks in China. The total number of samples was 8,212, and the pooled Cryptosporidium spp. prevalence in yaks was estimated to be 10.52% (1192/8012). The prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in yaks was 13.54% (1029/5277) and 4.49% (148/2132) in northwestern and southwestern China, respectively. In the sampling year subgroups, the prevalence before 2012 (19.79%; 650/2662) was significantly higher than that after 2012 (6.07%; 437/4476). The prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in cold seasons (20.55%; 188/794) was higher than that in warm seasons (4.83%; 41/1228). In the age subgroup, the yaks with age < 12 months had a higher prevalence (19.47%; 231/1761) than that in yaks with age ≥12 months (16.63%; 365/2268). Among 12 Cryptosporidium spp. species/genotypes, the C. bovis had the highest prevalence. Moreover, the effects of geography (latitude, longitude, precipitation, temperature, and altitude) and climate on Cryptosporidium spp. infection in yaks were evaluated. Through analyzing the risk factors correlated with the prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp., we recommend that effective management measures should be formulated according to the differences of different geographical factors, in order to prevent cryptosporidiosis and reduce economic losses in yaks in China.

Linking climate and infectious disease trends in the Northern/Arctic Region

Recognition of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating health threats from climate change. Recent studies have reasoned about potential climate sensitivity of diseases in the Northern/Arctic Region, where climate change is particularly pronounced. By linking disease and climate data for this region, we here comprehensively quantify empirical climate-disease relationships. Results show significant relationships of borreliosis, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), Puumala virus infection, cryptosporidiosis, and Q fever with climate variables related to temperature and freshwater conditions. These data-driven results are consistent with previous reasoning-based propositions of climate-sensitive infections as increasing threats for humans, with notable exceptions for TBE and leptospirosis. For the latter, the data imply decrease with increasing temperature and precipitation experienced in, and projected for, the Northern/Arctic Region. This study provides significant data-based underpinning for simplified empirical assessments of the risks of several infectious diseases under future climate change.

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities.

FINDINGS

We estimated that in the period 2080-95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441-7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760-100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.