Steps towards operationalizing One Health approaches

One Health recognizes the health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment are interrelated. The concept has been embraced by international health and environmental authorities such as WHO, WOAH, FAO, and UNEP, but One Health approaches have been more practiced by researchers than national or international authorities. To identify priorities for operationalizing One Health beyond research contexts, we conducted 41 semi-structured interviews with professionals across One Health sectors (public health, environment, agriculture, wildlife) and institutional contexts, who focus on national-scale and international applications. We identify important challenges, solutions, and priorities for delivering the One Health agenda through government action. Participants said One Health has made progress with motivating stakeholders to attempt One Health approaches, but achieving implementation needs more guidance (action plans for how to leverage or change current government infrastructure to accommodate cross-sector policy and strategic mission planning) and facilitation (behavioral change, dedicated personnel, new training model).

An evaluation of the COVID-19 self-service digital contact tracing system in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Digital contact tracing (DCT) aims to improve time-to-isolation (timeliness) and find more potentially exposed individuals (sensitivity) to enhance the utility of contact tracing. The aim of this study was to evaluate the public uptake of a DCT self-service survey and its integration with the Bluetooth exposure notification system within the New Zealand Covid Tracer App (NZCTA).

METHODS

We adopted a retrospective cohort study design using community COVID-19 cases from February 2022 to August 2022 in New Zealand (1.2 million cases). We examined the proportion of cases completing a self-service survey and the time to complete the survey by age, sex and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Overall, 66 % of cases completed their self-service survey. Completion was influenced by age, sex and ethnicity. The median completion time was 1.8 h (IQR 0.2, 17.2), with 95 % of those completing this survey doing so within 48 h of case identification. Around 13 % of all survey completers also uploaded their Bluetooth data, which resulted in an average of 663 cases per day notifying 4.5 contacts per case.

CONCLUSION

The combination of high public uptake and rapid response times suggest self-service DCT could be a useful tool for future outbreaks, particularly if implemented in conjunction with manual processes and other DCT tools (e.g. Bluetooth) to address issues related to performance (sensitivity, timeliness), effectiveness, and health equity.

Population and contact tracer uptake of New Zealand's QR-code-based digital contact tracing app for COVID-19

This study aimed to understand the population and contact tracer uptake of the quick response (QR)-code-based function of the New Zealand COVID Tracer App (NZCTA) used for digital contact tracing (DCT). We used a retrospective cohort of all COVID-19 cases between August 2020 and February 2022. Cases of Asian and other ethnicities were 2.6 times (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 2.58, 99 per cent confidence interval (95% CI) 2.18, 3.05) and 1.8 times (aRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.58, 2.06) more likely than Māori cases to generate a token during the Delta period, and this persisted during the Omicron period. Contact tracing organization also influenced location token generation with cases handled by National Case Investigation Service (NCIS) staff being 2.03 (95% CI 1.79, 2.30) times more likely to generate a token than cases managed by clinical staff at local Public Health Units (PHUs). Public uptake and participation in the location-based system independent of contact tracer uptake were estimated at 45%. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the QR code system was estimated to be close to nil for detecting close contacts but close to 100% for detecting casual contacts. Our paper shows that the QR-code-based function of the NZCTA likely made a negligible impact on the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (NZ) in relation to isolating potential close contacts of cases but likely was effective at identifying and notifying casual contacts.

Severe weather events and cryptosporidiosis in Aotearoa New Zealand: A case series of space-time clusters

Occurrence of cryptosporidiosis has been associated with weather conditions in many settings internationally. We explored statistical clusters of human cryptosporidiosis and their relationship with severe weather events in New Zealand (NZ). Notified cases of cryptosporidiosis from 1997 to 2015 were obtained from the national surveillance system. Retrospective space-time permutation was used to identify statistical clusters. Cluster data were compared to severe weather events in a national database. SaTScan analysis detected 38 statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters. Around a third (34.2%, 13/38) of these clusters showed temporal and spatial alignment with severe weather events. Of these, nearly half (46.2%, 6/13) occurred in the spring. Only five (38%, 5/13) of these clusters corresponded to a previously reported cryptosporidiosis outbreak. This study provides additional evidence that severe weather events may contribute to the development of some cryptosporidiosis clusters. Further research on this association is needed as rainfall intensity is projected to rise in NZ due to climate change. The findings also provide further arguments for upgrading the quality of drinking water sources to minimize contamination with pathogens from runoff from livestock agriculture.

Impact of the COVID-19 related border restrictions on influenza and other common respiratory viral infections in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

New Zealand's (NZ) complete absence of community transmission of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) after May 2020, likely due to COVID-19 elimination measures, provided a rare opportunity to assess the impact of border restrictions on common respiratory viral infections over the ensuing 2 years.

METHODS

We collected the data from multiple surveillance systems, including hospital-based severe acute respiratory infection surveillance, SHIVERS-II, -III and -IV community cohorts for acute respiratory infection (ARI) surveillance, HealthStat sentinel general practice (GP) based influenza-like illness surveillance and SHIVERS-V sentinel GP-based ARI surveillance, SHIVERS-V traveller ARI surveillance and laboratory-based surveillance. We described the data on influenza, RSV and other respiratory viral infections in NZ before, during and after various stages of the COVID related border restrictions.

RESULTS

We observed that border closure to most people, and mandatory government-managed isolation and quarantine on arrival for those allowed to enter, appeared to be effective in keeping influenza and RSV infections out of the NZ community. Border restrictions did not affect community transmission of other respiratory viruses such as rhinovirus and parainfluenza virus type-1. Partial border relaxations through quarantine-free travel with Australia and other countries were quickly followed by importation of RSV in 2021 and influenza in 2022.

CONCLUSION

Our findings inform future pandemic preparedness and strategies to model and manage the impact of influenza and other respiratory viral threats.

A worldwide population of Streptococcus pyogenes strains circulating among school-aged children in Auckland, New Zealand: a genomic epidemiology analysis

Background

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a serious post-infectious sequala of Group A Streptococcus (GAS, Streptococcus pyogenes). In New Zealand (NZ) ARF is a major cause of health inequity. This study describes the genomic analysis of GAS isolates associated with childhood skin and throat infections in Auckland NZ.

Methods

Isolates (n = 469) collected between March 2018 and October 2019 from the throats and skin of children (5-14 years) underwent whole genomic sequencing. Equal representation across three ethnic groups was ensured through sample quotas with isolates obtained from Indigenous Māori (n = 157, 33%), NZ European/Other (n = 149, 32%) and Pacific Peoples children (n = 163, 35%). Using in silico techniques isolates were classified, assessed for diversity, and examined for distribution differences between groups. Comparisons were also made with GAS strains identified globally.

Findings

Genomic analysis revealed a diverse population consisting of 65 distinct sequence clusters. These sequence clusters spanned 49 emm-types, with 11 emm-types comprised of several, distinct sequence clusters. There is evidence of multiple global introductions of different lineages into the population, as well as local clonal expansion. The M1UK lineage comprised 35% of all emm1 isolates.

Interpretation

The GAS population was characterized by a high diversity of strains, resembling patterns observed in low- and middle-income countries. However, strains associated with outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance commonly found in high-income countries were also observed. This unique combination poses challenges for vaccine development, disease management and control.

Funding

The work was supported by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC), award number 16/005.

The rise and fall of excess winter mortality in New Zealand from 1876 to 2020

Excess winter mortality (EWM) has been used as a measure of how well populations and policy moderate the health effects of cold weather. We aimed to investigate long-term changes in the EWM of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), and potential drivers of change, and to test for structural breaks in trends. We calculated NZ EWM indices from 1876 (4,698 deaths) to 2020 (33,310 deaths), total and by age-group and sex, comparing deaths from June to September (the coldest months) to deaths from February to May and October to January. The mean age and sex-standardised EWM Index (EWMI) for the full study period, excluding 1918, was 1.22. However, mean EWMI increased from 1.20 for 1886 to 1917, to 1.34 for the 1920s, then reduced over time to 1.14 in the 2010s, with excess winter deaths averaging 4.5% of annual deaths (1,450 deaths per year) in the 2010s, compared to 7.9% in the 1920s. Children under 5 years transitioned from a summer to winter excess between 1886 and 1911. Otherwise, the EWMI age-distribution was J-shaped in all time periods. Structural break testing showed the 1918 influenza pandemic strain had a significant impact on trends in winter and non-winter mortality and winter excess for subsequent decades. It was not possible to attribute the post-1918 reduction in EWM to any single factor among improved living standards, reduced severe respiratory infections, or climate change.

Key informant perspectives on a centralised contact tracing system for sexually transmitted infections

AIM

To meet the demand of contact tracing requirements associated with Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 pandemic response, a national contact tracing service was established. Contact tracing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) like chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis is usually done at the clinic level, and evidence suggests it is under-resourced and often incomplete.

METHOD

We considered the utility of a centralised contact tracing service for STIs by interviewing key informants. Interviews took place between December 2021 and March 2022, and were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Twelve key informants from disciplines including sexual health, primary care, public health, research and contact tracing participated. Perceived benefits of a centralised system included efficiency, standardisation and reduced demands on clinician time. Potential challenges and considerations included concerns about trust and privacy, the importance of cultural safety, meeting the needs of priority populations and lack of local-level knowledge.

CONCLUSION

A centralised contact tracing service could enable a more consistent and comprehensive approach to contact tracing for STIs and alleviate some of the burden on already stretched clinicians. However, successful contact tracing requires high levels of trust and for some populations this may be best achieved through trusted local providers, who could be supported, if needed, by centralised expertise.

Research opportunities for the primordial prevention of rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease-streptococcal vaccine development: a national heart, lung and blood institute workshop report

Streptococcus pyogenes, also known as group A streptococcus (StrepA), is a bacterium that causes a range of human diseases, including pharyngitis, impetigo, invasive infections, and post-infection immune sequelae such as rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease. StrepA infections cause some of the highest burden of disease and death in mostly young populations in low-resource settings. Despite decades of effort, there is still no licensed StrepA vaccine, which if developed, could be a cost-effective way to reduce the incidence of disease. Several challenges, including technical and regulatory hurdles, safety concerns and a lack of investment have hindered StrepA vaccine development. Barriers to developing a StrepA vaccine must be overcome in the future by prioritising key areas of research including greater understanding of StrepA immunobiology and autoimmunity risk, better animal models that mimic human disease, expanding the StrepA vaccine pipeline and supporting vaccine clinical trials. The development of a StrepA vaccine is a complex and challenging process that requires significant resources and investment. Given the global burden of StrepA infections and the potential for a vaccine to save lives and livelihoods, StrepA vaccine development is an area of research that deserves considerable support. This report summarises the findings of the Primordial Prevention Working Group-VAX, which was convened in November 2021 by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. The focus of this report is to identify research gaps within the current StrepA vaccine landscape and find opportunities and develop priorities to promote the rapid and successful advancement of StrepA vaccines.

Continued mitigation needed to minimise the high health burden from COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand

In this article we review the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Aotearoa New Zealand and consider the optimal ongoing response strategy. We note that this pandemic virus looks likely to result in future waves of infection that diminish in size over time, depending on such factors as viral evolution and population immunity. However, the burden of disease remains high with thousands of infections, hundreds of hospitalisations and tens of deaths each week, and an unknown burden of long-term illness (long COVID). Alongside this there is a considerable burden from other important respiratory illnesses, including influenza and RSV, that needs more attention. Given this impact and the associated health inequities, particularly for Māori and Pacific Peoples, we consider that an ongoing respiratory disease mitigation strategy is appropriate for New Zealand. As such, the previously described "vaccines plus" approach (involving vaccination and public health and social measures), should now be integrated with the surveillance and control of other important respiratory infections. Now is also a time for New Zealand to build on the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic to enhance preparedness nationally and internationally. New Zealand's experience suggests elimination (or ideally exclusion) should be the default first choice for future pandemics of sufficient severity.

Research priorities for the primordial prevention of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease by modifying the social determinants of health

The social determinants of health (SDH), such as access to income, education, housing and healthcare, strongly shape the occurrence of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) at the household, community and national levels. The SDH are systemic factors that privilege some more than others and result in poverty and inequitable access to resources to support health and well-being. Primordial prevention is the modification of SDH to improve health and reduce the risk of disease acquisition and the subsequent progression to RHD. Modifying these determinants using primordial prevention strategies can reduce the risk of exposure to Group A Streptococcus, a causative agent of throat and skin infections, thereby lowering the risk of initiating ARF and its subsequent progression to RHD.This report summarises the findings of the Primordial Prevention Working Group-SDH, which was convened in November 2021 by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute to assess how SDH influence the risk of developing RHD. Working group members identified a series of knowledge gaps and proposed research priorities, while recognising that community engagement and partnerships with those with lived experience will be integral to the success of these activities. Specifically, members emphasised the need for: (1) global analysis of disease incidence, prevalence and SDH characteristics concurrently to inform policy and interventions, (2) global assessment of legacy primordial prevention programmes to help inform the co-design of interventions alongside affected communities, (3) research to develop, implement and evaluate scalable primordial prevention interventions in diverse settings and (4) research to improve access to and equity of services across the RHD continuum. Addressing SDH, through the implementation of primordial prevention strategies, could have broader implications, not only improving RHD-related health outcomes but also impacting other neglected diseases in low-resource settings.

Low risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease transmission from blood transfusions in Aotearoa New Zealand suggests donor exclusion policies can be relaxed

Aotearoa New Zealand currently excludes potential blood donors who lived in the United Kingdom (UK) for 6 months or more between 1980 and 1996. This action is due to the potential for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) following blood transfusions from preclinical vCJD cases, who themselves mostly developed disease from the consumption of cattle with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during this period, or from those incubating the misfolded prion proteins that cause disease. This donor exclusion policy led to 10% of New Zealand's active blood donors in 2000 being excluded, and it remains today despite periodic shortages of some blood products. Globally there have been 232 vCJD cases recorded-178 in the UK-with no new cases since 2019 and the peak numbers 23 years ago in 2000. Only three confirmed cases have been linked to blood transfusion. Here, we aimed to estimate the annual risk of vCJD from blood transfusion in New Zealand after restriction removal. We used UK case numbers, population estimates, and donor and recipient transfusion numbers to calculate the risk to the New Zealand public. We calculated the risk, based on approximately 131,000 transfusions a year and accounting for multiple transfusions, might lead to 0.005 cases annually, or approximately one in one billion nationally, and comparable to recent one in 1.45 billion estimates for Australia. Our analyses suggests that relaxing current blood donation restrictions, like Ireland and Australia's recent policy changes, would lead to an extremely low risk of vCJD transfusion-transmission in New Zealand. This policy change would help increase the supply of blood products for multiple medical needs.

Leptospirosis in Aotearoa New Zealand: Protocol for a Nationwide Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

In Aotearoa New Zealand, 90% of patients with notified leptospirosis (a zoonotic bacterial disease) have been men working in agricultural industries. However, since 2008, the epidemiology of notified cases has been gradually changing, that is, more women are affected; there are more cases associated with occupations traditionally not considered high risk in New Zealand; infecting serovars have changed; and many patients experience symptoms long after infection. We hypothesized that there is a shift in leptospirosis transmission patterns with substantial burden on affected patients and their families.

OBJECTIVE

In this paper, we aimed to describe the protocols used to conduct a nationwide case-control study to update leptospirosis risk factors and follow-up studies to assess the burden and sources of leptospirosis in New Zealand.

METHODS

This study used a mixed methods approach, comprising a case-control study and 4 substudies that involved cases only. Cases were recruited nationwide, and controls were frequency matched by sex and rurality. All participants were administered a case-control questionnaire (study 1), with cases being interviewed again at least 6 months after the initial survey (study 2). A subset of cases from two high-risk populations, that is, farmers and abattoir workers, were further engaged in a semistructured interview (study 3). Some cases with regular animal exposure had their in-contact animals (livestock for blood and urine and wildlife for kidney) and environment (soil, mud, and water) sampled (study 4). Patients from selected health clinics suspected of leptospirosis also had blood and urine samples collected (study 5). In studies 4 and 5, blood samples were tested using the microscopic agglutination test to test for antibody titers against Leptospira serovars Hardjo type bovis, Ballum, Tarassovi, Pomona, and Copenhageni. Blood, urine, and environmental samples were also tested for pathogenic Leptospira DNA using polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Participants were recruited between July 22, 2019, and January 31, 2022, and data collection for the study has concluded. In total, 95 cases (July 25, 2019, to April 13, 2022) and 300 controls (October 19, 2019, to January 26, 2022) were interviewed for the case-control study; 91 cases participated in the follow-up interviews (July 9, 2020, to October 25, 2022); 13 cases participated in the semistructured interviews (January 26, 2021, to January 19, 2022); and 4 cases had their in-contact animals and environments sampled (October 28, 2020, and July 29, 2021). Data analysis for study 3 has concluded and 2 manuscripts have been drafted for review. Results of the other studies are being analyzed and the specific results of each study will be published as individual manuscripts..

CONCLUSIONS

The methods used in this study may provide a basis for future epidemiological studies of infectious diseases.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/47900.

Increased Incidence of Legionellosis after Improved Diagnostic Methods, New Zealand, 2000-2020

Legionellosis, notably Legionnaires' disease, is recognized globally and in New Zealand (Aotearoa) as a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and demographic epidemiology and microbiology of Legionnaires' disease in New Zealand by using notification and laboratory-based surveillance data for 2000‒2020. We used Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs to compare demographic and organism trends over 2 time periods (2000-2009 and 2010-2020). The mean annual incidence rate increased from 1.6 cases/100,000 population for 2000-2009 to 3.9 cases/100,000 population for 2010-2020. This increase corresponded with a change in diagnostic testing from predominantly serology with some culture to almost entirely molecular methods using PCR. There was also a marked shift in the identified dominant causative organism, from Legionella pneumophila to L. longbeachae. Surveillance for legionellosis could be further enhanced by greater use of molecular typing of isolates.

Diagnosis of protozoa diarrhoea in Campylobacter patients increases markedly with molecular techniques

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are major causes of diarrhoea globally, and two of the most notified infectious diseases in New Zealand. Diagnosis requires laboratory confirmation carried out mostly via antigen or microscopy-based techniques. However, these methods are increasingly being superseded by molecular techniques. Here we investigate the level of protozoa detection by molecular methods in campylobacteriosis cases missed through antigen-based assays and investigate different molecular testing protocols. We report findings from two observational studies; the first among 111 people during a Campylobacter outbreak and the second during normal surveillance activities among 158 people presenting with diarrhoea and a positive Campylobacter test, but negative Cryptosporidium and Giardia antigen-based test results. The molecular methods used for comparison were in-house end-point PCR tests targeting the gp60 gene for Cryptosporidium and gdh gene for Giardia. DNA extraction was performed with and without bead-beating and comparisons with commercial real-time quantitative (qPCR) were made using clinical Cryptosporidium positive sample dilutions down to 10-5. The Cryptosporidium prevalence was 9% (95% CI: 3-15; 10/111) and Giardia prevalence 21% (95% CI: 12-29; 23/111) in the 111 Campylobacter outbreak patients. The Cryptosporidium prevalence was 40% (95% CI: 32-48; 62/158) and Giardia prevalence 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2-4.5; 2/158) in the 158 routine surveillance samples. Sequencing identified Cryptosporidium hominis, C. parvum, and Giardia intestinalis assemblages A and B. We found no statistical difference in positive test results between samples using end-point PCR with or without bead-beating prior to DNA extraction, or between the in-house end-point PCR and qPCR. The qPCR Ct value was 36 (95% CI: 35-37) for 1 oocyst, suggesting a high limit of detection. In conclusion in surveillance and outbreak situations we found diagnostic serology testing underdiagnoses Cryptosporidium and Giardia coinfections in Campylobacter patients, suggesting the impact of protozoa infections may be underestimated through underdiagnosis using antigen-based assays.

Environmental Investigation and Surveillance for Legionella in Aotearoa New Zealand, 2000-2020

The reported rate of legionellosis is increasing in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) with most cases community-acquired, sporadic (non-outbreak) and without an identifiable source. This analysis used two datasets to describe the environmental sources that contribute to Legionella in NZ, based on linkages with outbreaks and sporadic clinical cases, and analysis of environmental testing data. These findings highlight the need for enhanced environmental investigation of clinical cases and outbreaks. There is also a need for systematic surveillance testing of high-risk source environments to support more rigorous controls to prevent legionellosis.

Protecting school communities from COVID-19 and other infectious disease outbreaks: the urgent need for healthy schools in Aotearoa New Zealand

Nil.

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase- and AmpC β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales associated with urinary tract infections in the New Zealand community: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether having a pet in the home is a risk factor for community-acquired urinary tract infections associated with extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- or AmpC β-lactamase (ACBL)- producing Enterobacterales.

METHODS

An unmatched case-control study was conducted between August 2015 and September 2017. Cases (n = 141) were people with community-acquired urinary tract infection (UTI) caused by ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacterales. Controls (n = 525) were recruited from the community. A telephone questionnaire on pet ownership and other factors was administered, and associations were assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Pet ownership was not associated with ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacterales-related human UTIs. A positive association was observed for recent antimicrobial treatment, travel to Asia in the previous year, and a doctor's visit in the last 6 months. Among isolates with an ESBL-/ACBL-producing phenotype, 126/134 (94%) were Escherichia coli, with sequence type 131 being the most common (47/126).

CONCLUSIONS

Companion animals in the home were not found to be associated with ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacterales-related community-acquired UTIs in New Zealand. Risk factors included overseas travel, recent antibiotic use, and doctor visits.

Epidemiology and direct health care costs of hospitalised legionellosis in New Zealand, 2000-2020

BACKGROUND

Legionellosis is a collective term used for disease caused by Legionella species which result in community and hospital acquired pneumonia worldwide. The aim of this analysis was to describe the epidemiology of legionellosis hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) over a 21-year period and quantify the health care costs.

METHOD

This study combined national legionellosis notification and hospital discharge data that were linked via the National Health Index (NHI) to provide a more complete dataset of hospitalised cases. The direct cost of hospital care was estimated by multiplying the diagnosis-related group cost-weight by the national price and inflating to 2020/2021 values.

RESULTS

There were 1479 records matched across notifications and discharge databases, including 990 with principal and 489 with additional diagnosis of legionellosis. Incidence rose to an average of 143 cases per annum for 2016-2020, a rate of 3·2/100,000. The median LOS was 6 days (IQR 4-13·5) with direct costs of $2·1 million per annum over that period. Rates were highest in those aged 65 years and above, male, and of European/Other ethnicity. Hospitalisations showed a peak in spring and summer.

CONCLUSION

The rate of hospitalised legionellosis in New Zealand rose from 2000 to 2015, largely reflecting improved diagnosis. This preventable disease results in substantial health care costs. Greater efforts are needed to identify and control sources of exposure. Surveillance could be improved by routine integration of notification and hospital discharge data.

Comparing COVID-19 pandemic health responses in two high-income island nations: Iceland and New Zealand

AIMS

We aimed to compare COVID-19 control measures, epidemiological characteristics and economic performance measures in two high-income island nations with small populations, favorable border control options, and relatively good outcomes: Iceland and New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

We examined peer-reviewed journal articles, official websites, reports, media releases and press articles for data on pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 public health responses from 1 January 2020 to 1 June 2022 in Iceland and NZ. We calculated epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as measures of economic performance.

RESULTS

Both nations had the lowest excess mortality in the OECD from the start of the pandemic up to June 2022. Iceland pursued a mitigation strategy, never used lockdowns or officially closed its border to foreign nationals, and instead relied on extensive testing and contact tracing early in the pandemic. Meanwhile, NZ pursued an elimination strategy, used a strict national lockdown to stop transmission, and closed its international border to everyone except citizens and permanent residents going through quarantine and testing. Iceland experienced a larger decrease in gross domestic product in 2020 (relative to 2019) than NZ (-8·27% vs. -1·22%, respectively). In late 2021, NZ announced a shift to a suppression strategy and in 2022 began to reopen its border in stages, while Iceland ended all public restrictions on 25 February 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Many of Iceland's and NZ's pandemic control measures appeared successful and features of the responses in both countries could potentially be adopted by other jurisdictions to address future disease outbreaks and pandemic threats.

The potential human health hazard of nitrates in drinking water: a media discourse analysis in a high-income country

BACKGROUND

Recent studies linking low levels of nitrate in drinking water to colorectal cancer have raised public concerns over nitrate contamination. The aim of this study was to analyze the media discourse on the potential human health hazard of nitrates in drinking water in a high-income country with a large livestock industry: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Searches of media sources ("major newspapers") held by the Factiva database for the NZ setting in the five-year period 17 December 2016 to 20 December 2021.

RESULTS

The largest number of media items was observed for 2017 (n = 108), the year of a NZ general election, with a notable decrease in 2020 (n = 20) that was likely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which dominated health media. However, the percentage of these media items with a health focus steadily increased over time, from 11.1% of all articles in 2017 to 51.2% in 2021. The most commonly mentioned health hazard was colorectal cancer, followed by methemoglobinemia. The temporal pattern of media items suggests that the release of scientific studies and scholarly blogs was associated with the publication of subsequent media items. Major stakeholders involved in the discourse included representatives of local and central government, environmental and recreational interest groups, researchers, local residents, agricultural interest groups, and health organizations. Māori (Indigenous New Zealanders) values or perspectives were rarely mentioned.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of major newspapers for a five-year period indicated that a wide range of expert comment and opinions were made available to the public and policy makers on the issue of nitrates in water. While many different stakeholder views were captured in the media discourse, there is scope for the media to better report the views of Māori on this topic. There is also a need for articles detailing the health issues to also refer to the environmental, recreational, and cultural aspects of protecting water quality to ensure that the public, policy makers, and regulators are aware of co-benefits.

Beyond muddy waters: Three Waters reforms required to future-proof water service delivery and protect public health in Aotearoa New Zealand

A 2016 drinking water-related campylobacteriosis outbreak in Aotearoa New Zealand made much of an entire town sick leading to reforms colloquially called "Three Waters", which aims to improve the management and delivery of waste, storm and drinking water systems. Public discourse on the Three Waters reforms has been dominated by anti-co-governance rhetoric, concerns around privatisation and loss of local control and alternative less comprehensive reform models. This debate has drowned out the fundamental problem statement justifying the reforms, that is, the management of drinking water resources is currently: 1) demonstrably inadequate to protect public health and promote health equity; and 2) economically inefficient. We discuss four areas where the proposed Three Waters reforms are likely to address current and future challenges and improve public health. We conclude by outlining four areas of remaining contention.

Risk factors for acute rheumatic fever: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain an inequitable cause of avoidable suffering and early death in many countries, including among Indigenous Māori and Pacific populations in New Zealand. There is a lack of robust evidence on interventions to prevent ARF. This study aimed to identify modifiable risk factors, with the goal of producing evidence to support policies and programs to decrease rates of ARF.

METHODS

A case-control study was undertaken in New Zealand using hospitalised, first episode ARF cases meeting a standard case-definition. Population controls (ratio of 3:1) were matched by age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, location, sex, and recruitment month. A comprehensive, pre-tested questionnaire was administered face-to-face by trained interviewers.

FINDINGS

The study included 124 cases and 372 controls. Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between ARF and household crowding (OR 3·88; 95%CI 1·68-8·98) and barriers to accessing primary health care (OR 2·07; 95% CI 1·08-4·00), as well as a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (OR 2·00; 1·13-3·54). There was a marked five-fold higher ARF risk for those with a family history of ARF (OR 4·97; 95% CI 2·53-9·77). ARF risk was elevated following self-reported skin infection (aOR 2·53; 1·44-4·42) and sore throat (aOR 2·33; 1·49-3·62).

INTERPRETATION

These globally relevant findings direct attention to the critical importance of household crowding and access to primary health care as strong modifiable causal factors in the development of ARF. They also support a greater focus on the role of managing skin infections in ARF prevention.

FUNDING

This research was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC) Rheumatic Fever Research Partnership (supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Te Puni Kōkiri, Cure Kids, Heart Foundation, and HRC) award number 13/959.

Risk factors for group A streptococcal pharyngitis and skin infections: A case control study

BACKGROUND

Group A streptococcal (GAS) infections can trigger an immune-mediated response resulting in acute rheumatic fever (ARF). The role of social and environmental risk factors for GAS pharyngitis and skin infections are not well understood. This study aimed to identify factors associated with GAS pharyngitis and skin infections, and to determine if these are the same as those for ARF.

METHODS

A case-control study, including 733 children aged 5-14 years, was undertaken between March 2018 and October 2019 in Auckland, New Zealand. Healthy controls (n = 190) and symptomatic cases including GAS pharyngitis (n = 210), GAS seronegative carriers (n = 182), and GAS skin infections (n = 151) were recruited. Trained interviewers administered a comprehensive, pre-tested, face-to-face questionnaire.

FINDINGS

Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between barriers to accessing primary healthcare and having GAS pharyngitis (adjusted OR 3·3; 95% CI 1·8-6·0), GAS carriage (aOR 2·9; 95% CI 1·5-6·0) or a GAS skin infection (aOR 3·5; 95% CI 1·6-7·6). Children who had GAS skin infections were more likely than all other groups to report living in a crowded home (aOR 1·9; 95% CI 1·0-3·4), have Māori or Pacific grandparents (aOR 3·0; 95% CI 1·2-7·6), a family history of ARF (aOR 2·2; 95% CI 1·1-4·3), or having a previous diagnosis of eczema (aOR 3·9; 95% CI 2·2-6·9).

INTERPRETATION

Reducing barriers to accessing primary healthcare (including financial restrictions, the inability to book an appointment, lack of transport, and lack of childcare for other children) to treat GAS pharyngitis and skin infections could potentially reduce these infections and lead to a reduction in their sequelae, including ARF. These strategies should be co-designed and culturally appropriate for the communities being served and carefully evaluated.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC), award number 16/005.

The 2021 Global Health Security (GHS) Index: Aotearoa New Zealand's improving capacity to manage biological threats must now be consolidated

The 2021 Global Health Security (GHS) Index Report was published on 8 December 2021. With an average country score of 38.9 out of a possible 100 points, global scores are essentially unchanged from 2019. Despite experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, no country is adequately prepared for future biological threats. No country scored above 75.9 and the scores of the bottom 11 States have all fallen since 2019. Aotearoa New Zealand, however, has substantially improved its country score, rising to 13th in the world at 62.5/100. This gain is partly driven by consolidation of capabilities developed and deployed in response to COVID-19. This is promising progress, but a lot more can be done to ensure legacy benefits from the pandemic response, notably through the proposed restructuring of the health system (Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Bill). In this viewpoint article, we discuss this recent further development of the GHS Index, highlight the global results for 2021, delve into New Zealand's progress, and discuss what more is needed.

Medical Treatment for Rheumatic Heart Disease: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) are rare in high-income countries; however, in Aotearoa New Zealand ARF and RHD disproportionately affect Indigenous Māori and Pacific Peoples. This narrative review explores the evidence regarding non-surgical management of patients with clinically significant valve disease or heart failure due to RHD.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE and Scopus databases were searched, and additional publications were identified through cross-referencing. Included were 28 publications from 1980 onwards.

RESULTS

Of the available interventions, improved anticoagulation management and a national RHD register could improve RHD outcomes in New Zealand. Where community pharmacy anticoagulant management services (CPAMS) are available good anticoagulation control can be achieved with a time in the therapeutic range (TTR) of more than 70%, which is above the internationally recommended level of 60%. The use of pharmacists in anticoagulation control is cost-effective, acceptable to patients, pharmacists, and primary care practitioners. There is a lack of local data available to fully assess other interventions; including optimal therapy for heart failure, equitable access to specialist RHD care, prevention, and management of endocarditis.

CONCLUSION

As RHD continues to disproportionately affect Indigenous and minority groups, pro-equity tertiary prevention interventions should be fully evaluated to ensure they are reducing disease burden and improving outcomes in patients with RHD.

Indoor air quality, largely neglected and in urgent need of a refresh

Nil.

Reactive arthritis incidence in a community cohort following a large waterborne campylobacteriosis outbreak in Havelock North, New Zealand

OBJECTIVES

In August 2016, Campylobacter spp contaminated an untreated reticulated water supply resulting in a large-scale gastroenteritis outbreak affecting an estimated 8320 people. We aimed to determine the incidence of probable reactive arthritis (ReA) cases in individuals with culture-confirmed campylobacteriosis (CC), self-reported probable campylobacteriosis (PC) and those reporting no diarrhoea (ND).

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to identify incidence of probable ReA cases. We identified cases with new ReA symptoms using an adapted acute ReA (AReA) telephone questionnaire. Those reporting ≥1 symptom underwent a telephone interview with the study rheumatologist. Probable ReA was defined as spontaneous onset of pain suggestive of inflammatory arthritis in ≥1 previously asymptomatic joint for ≥3 days occurring ≤12 weeks after outbreak onset.

SETTING

Population-based epidemiological study in Havelock North, New Zealand.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled notified CC cases with gastroenteritis symptom onsets 5 August 2016-6 September 2016 and conducted a telephone survey of households supplied by the contaminated water source to enrol PC and ND cases.

RESULTS

One hundred and six (47.3%) CC, 47 (32.6%) PC and 113 (34.3%) ND cases completed the AReA telephone questionnaire. Of those reporting ≥1 new ReA symptom, 45 (75.0%) CC, 13 (68.4%) PC and 14 (82.4%) ND cases completed the rheumatologist telephone interview. Nineteen CC, 4 PC and 2 ND cases developed probable ReA, resulting in minimum incidences of 8.5%, 2.8% and 0.6% and maximum incidences of 23.9%, 12.4% and 2.15%.

DISCUSSION

We describe high probable ReA incidences among gastroenteritis case types during a very large Campylobacter gastroenteritis outbreak using a resource-efficient method that is feasible to employ in future outbreaks.

Dairy Cattle Density and Temporal Patterns of Human Campylobacteriosis and Cryptosporidiosis in New Zealand

Public health risks associated with the intensification of dairy farming are an emerging concern. Dairy cattle are a reservoir for a number of pathogens that can cause human illness. This study examined the spatial distribution of dairy cattle density and explored temporal patterns of human campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis notifications in New Zealand from 1997 to 2015. Maps of dairy cattle density were produced, and temporal patterns of disease rates were assessed for urban versus rural areas and for areas with different dairy cattle densities using descriptive temporal analyses. Campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis rates displayed strong seasonal patterns, with highest rates in spring in rural areas and, for campylobacteriosis, summer in urban areas. Increases in rural cases often preceded increases in urban cases. Furthermore, disease rates in areas with higher dairy cattle densities tended to peak before areas with low densities or no dairy cattle. Infected dairy calves may be a direct or indirect source of campylobacteriosis or cryptosporidiosis infection in humans through environmental or occupational exposure routes, including contact with animals or feces, recreational contact with contaminated waterways, and consumption of untreated drinking water. These results have public health implications for populations living, working, or recreating in proximity to dairy farms.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 disease progression in Australia and New Zealand: an account of an agent-based approach to support public health decision-making

OBJECTIVE

In 2020, we developed a public health decision-support model for mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries' first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then 'RoadMap to Reopening'.

METHODS

Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non-pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries were represented in an agent-based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

RESULTS

Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days' duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14-day average of <5 new cases per day was achievable on or around 26 October. Victoria recorded a 14-day rolling average of 4.6 cases per day on 25 October.

CONCLUSIONS

Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission represented in faithfully constructed agent-based models can be replicated in the real world.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

Agent-based public health policy models can be helpful to support decision-making in novel and complex unfolding public health crises.

Nitrate contamination in drinking water and colorectal cancer: Exposure assessment and estimated health burden in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence in multiple jurisdictions has shown an association between nitrate exposure in drinking water and an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC).

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to review the extent of nitrate contamination in New Zealand drinking water and estimate the health and financial burden of nitrate-attributable CRC.

METHODS

We collated data on nitrate concentrations in drinking water for an estimated 85% of the New Zealand population (∼4 million people) who were on registered supplies. We estimated nitrate levels for the remaining population (∼600,000 people) based on samples from 371 unregistered (private) supplies. We used the effective rate ratio from previous epidemiological studies to estimate CRC cases and deaths attributable to nitrate in drinking water.

RESULTS

Three-quarters of New Zealanders are on water supplies with less than 1 mg/L NO₃-N. The population weighted average for nitrate exposure for people on registered supplies was 0.49 mg/L NO₃-N with 1.91% (95%CI 0.49, 3.30) of CRC cases attributable to nitrates. This correlates to 49.7 cases per year (95%CI 14.9, 101.5) at a cost of 21.3 million USD (95% 6.4, 43.5 million USD). When combining registered and unregistered supplies, we estimated 3.26% (95%CI 0.84, 5.57) of CRC cases were attributable to nitrates, resulting in 100 cases (95%CI 25.7, 171.3) and 41 deaths (95%CI 10.5, 69.7) at a cost of 43.2 million USD (95%CI 10.9, 73.4).

CONCLUSION

A substantial minority of New Zealanders are exposed to high or unknown levels of nitrates in their drinking water. Given the international epidemiological studies showing an association between cancer and nitrate ingestion from drinking water, this exposure may cause an important burden of preventable CRC cases, deaths, and economic costs. We consider there is sufficient evidence to justify a review of drinking water standards. Protecting public health adds to the strong environmental arguments to improve water management in New Zealand.

The lived experience of hotel isolation and quarantine at the Aotearoa New Zealand border for COVID-19: A qualitative descriptive study

Hotel-based Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) is a key public health intervention in Aotearoa New Zealand's (NZ) COVID-19 border control strategy for returning citizens and permanent residents. We aimed to investigate the experience of transiting through MIQ in NZ, to inform future refinements of this type of system. A qualitative thematic analysis method was utilised to explore experiences in depth with seventy-five individuals who had undergone MIQ in NZ between April 2020 and July 2021. Participants were interviewed by telephone or Zoom or completed an online qualitative questionnaire. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and coded; questionnaire responses were sorted and coded. All data were subjected to thematic analysis. Three main themes described the key elements of the participants' experience of MIQ that influenced their overall experiences: 1) The MIQ process, 2) MIQ Hotels, and 3) Individual experience. The variation in participants' overall experience of MIQ was strongly influenced by their perceptions of how well the MIQ process was managed (including communication, flexibility, and compliance with disease prevention and control measures); and the quality of the hotels they were allocated to (in particular hotel staff, meals and information). This valuable insight into the experience of individuals in NZ MIQ hotels can inform better planning, management and implementation of the MIQ process for NZ and adds to the literature of countries utilising such strategies to minimise the transmission of COVID-19, whilst protecting the wellbeing of those using the system.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes superficial pharyngitis and skin infections as well as serious autoimmune sequelae such as acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and subsequent rheumatic heart disease. ARF pathogenesis remains poorly understood. Immune priming by repeated GAS infections is thought to trigger ARF, and there is growing evidence for the role of skin infections in this process.

Methods

We utilized our recently developed 8-plex immunoassay, comprising antigens used in clinical serology for diagnosis of ARF (SLO, DNase B, SpnA), and 5 conserved putative GAS vaccine antigens (Spy0843, SCPA, SpyCEP, SpyAD, Group A carbohydrate), to characterize antibody responses in sera from New Zealand children with a range of clinically diagnosed GAS disease: ARF (n = 79), GAS-positive pharyngitis (n = 94), GAS-positive skin infection (n = 51), and matched healthy controls (n = 90).

Results

The magnitude and breadth of antibodies in ARF was very high, giving rise to a distinct serological profile. An average of 6.5 antigen-specific reactivities per individual was observed in ARF, compared to 4.2 in skin infections and 3.3 in pharyngitis.

Conclusions

ARF patients have a unique serological profile, which may be the result of repeated precursor pharyngitis and skin infections that progressively boost antibody breadth and magnitude.

Clinical outcomes of campylobacteriosis: a case series analysis of hospitalisations associated with the Havelock North Campylobacter outbreak

AIM

In August 2016, a large waterborne campylobacteriosis outbreak occurred in Havelock North, New Zealand. This analysis describes the clinical complications of cases admitted to hospital as a result of acute infection, identifies risk factors for hospitalisation and compares deaths between hospitalised and non-hospitalised cases. Hospital admissions with post-infectious sequelae were excluded as they are the subject of a separate analysis.

METHODS

A case series analysis was undertaken by reviewing the electronic medical records of 933 residents of Hawke's Bay District Health Board with probable and confirmed campylobacteriosis linked to the Havelock North Campylobacter outbreak.

RESULTS

A total of 67 hospital admissions, among 58 individuals, are described. Pre-existing comorbidity and advanced age were significant risk factors for hospital admission in univariate analysis. Dehydration (74.1%), electrolyte imbalance (35.8%) and acute kidney injury (27.6%) were common among hospitalised cases. The proportion of hospitalised cases that died within one year was significantly higher when compared to deaths among non-hospitalised cases (OR 5.0, 95% CI: 2.3-10.7), although this trend was not statistically significant after adjusting for age and comorbidity (OR 2.3, 95% CI: 0.96-5.3).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the serious health impacts that occurred from a campylobacteriosis outbreak of this magnitude.

Serological Profiling of Group A Streptococcus Infections in Acute Rheumatic Fever

Rheumatic fever is a serious post-infectious sequela of group A Streptococcus (GAS). Prior GAS exposures were mapped in sera using a large panel of M-type specific peptides. Rheumatic fever patients had serological evidence of significantly more GAS exposures than matched controls suggesting immune priming by repeat infections contributes to pathogenesis.

Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines

There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics. To end the pandemic as soon as possible—be it through elimination or reaching an acceptable endemic level—several key topics have emerged centring around coordination, both locally and internationally, and vaccine distribution. Without coordination it is difficult if not impossible to sustain elimination, which is particularly relevant in highly connected regions, such as Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain with respect to equitable distribution, and the risk of the emergence of new variants of concern. Looking forward, it is crucial to overcome the dichotomy between elimination and mitigation, and to jointly define a long-term objective that can accommodate different political and societal realities.

Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control

New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. Delaying interventions may reduce their effectiveness and mean that they need to be maintained for a longer period. We use a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's March-April 2020 outbreak and the effect of its interventions. We calculate key measures, including the number of reported cases and deaths, and the probability of elimination within a specified time frame. By comparing these measures under alternative timings of interventions, we show that changing the timing of AL4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying AL4 restrictions results in considerably worse outcomes. Implementing border measures alone, without AL4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak. We conclude that the early introduction of stay-at-home orders was crucial in reducing the number of cases and deaths, enabling elimination.

Comparison of group A streptococcal titres in healthy children and those with pharyngitis and skin infections

OBJECTIVES

Rates of acute rheumatic fever, a sequelae of group A Streptococcal (GAS) infection, remain unacceptably high in Indigenous Māori and Pacific children in New Zealand. This prospective study aimed to describe GAS antibody titres in healthy children (5-14 years) by ethnicity, and to determine how paired titres vary with GAS culture positive and negative pharyngitis, and GAS skin infections.

METHODS

Analysis included 887 children (32% Māori, 36% Pacific, 33% European/Other) from Auckland, New Zealand. Cases comprise 772 children who had a sore throat or skin infection, which resulted in a swab taken for culture. Healthy controls were asymptomatic (N = 154) and matched by age, ethnicity and region. All participants had a serum sample, with a second sample collected from cases only. Sera were analysed for anti-streptolysin O (ASO) and anti-DNase-B (ADB) antibodies.

RESULTS

Healthy Māori and Pacific children had higher GAS antibody titres than healthy European/Other children. Children with GAS-positive sore throat had the highest mean ASO titres and children with GAS-positive skin infection had the highest mean ADB titres. When a two-fold increase or an upper limit of normal cut-off (ASO 450 IU/ml, ADB 400 U/ml) was applied to titres from children with GAS-positive sore throat, 62.1% were classified as having serologically confirmed GAS pharyngitis and 37.9% had GAS detected without serological response.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated ASO titres were associated with GAS pharyngitis and elevated ADB titres were associated with GAS skin infections in New Zealand children. Higher ASO/ADB titres in healthy Māori and Pacific children could indicate a greater prior exposure to GAS infections.

Failures of quarantine systems for preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia and New Zealand

OBJECTIVES

To identify COVID-19 quarantine system failures in Australia and New Zealand.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Observational epidemiological study of travellers in managed quarantine in Australia and New Zealand, to 15 June 2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of quarantine system failures, and failure with respect to numbers of travellers and SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers.

RESULTS

We identified 22 quarantine system failures in Australia and ten in New Zealand to 15 June 2021. One failure initiated a COVID-19 outbreak that caused more than 800 deaths (the Victorian "second wave"); nine lockdowns were linked with quarantine system failures. The failure risk was estimated to be 5.0 failures per 100 000 travellers passing through quarantine and 6.1 (95% CI, 4.0-8.3) failures per 1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers. The risk per 1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive travellers was higher in New Zealand than Australia (relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-4.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Quarantine system failures can be costly in terms of lives and economic impact, including lockdowns. Our findings indicate that infection control in quarantine systems in Australia and New Zealand should be improved, including vaccination of quarantine workers and incoming travellers, or that alternatives to hotel-based quarantine should be developed.

Early diagnosis of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease as part of a secondary prevention strategy: Narrative review

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequela rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain significant causes of morbidity and mortality. In New Zealand, ARF almost exclusively affects Indigenous Māori and Pacific children. This narrative review aims to present secondary interventions to improve early and accurate diagnosis of ARF and RHD, in order to minimise disease progression in New Zealand. Medline, EMBASE and Scopus databases were searched as well as other electronic publications. Included were 56 publications from 1980 onwards. Diagnosing ARF and RHD as early as possible is central to reducing disease progression. Recent identification of specific ARF biomarkers offer the opportunity to aid initial diagnosis and portable echocardiography has the potential to detect undiagnosed RHD in high-risk areas. However, further research into the benefits and risks to children with subclinical RHD is necessary, as well as an economic evaluation.