A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size

Circulating KRAS G12D but not G12V is associated with survival in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

While high circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels are associated with poor survival for multiple cancers, variant-specific differences in the association of ctDNA levels and survival have not been examined. Here we investigate KRAS ctDNA (ctKRAS) variant-specific associations with overall and progression-free survival (OS/PFS) in first-line metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) for patients receiving chemoimmunotherapy ("PRINCE", NCT03214250), and an independent cohort receiving standard of care (SOC) chemotherapy. For PRINCE, higher baseline plasma levels are associated with worse OS for ctKRAS G12D (log-rank p = 0.0010) but not G12V (p = 0.7101), even with adjustment for clinical covariates. Early, on-therapy clearance of G12D (p = 0.0002), but not G12V (p = 0.4058), strongly associates with OS for PRINCE. Similar results are obtained for the SOC cohort, and for PFS in both cohorts. These results suggest ctKRAS G12D but not G12V as a promising prognostic biomarker for mPDAC and that G12D clearance could also serve as an early biomarker of response.

Diagnosis of pediatric central nervous system tumors using methylation profiling of cfDNA from cerebrospinal fluid

Pediatric central nervous system tumors remain challenging to diagnose. Imaging approaches do not provide sufficient detail to discriminate between different tumor types, while the histopathological examination of tumor tissue shows high inter-observer variability. Recent studies have demonstrated the accurate classification of central nervous system tumors based on the DNA methylation profile of a tumor biopsy. However, a brain biopsy holds significant risk of bleeding and damaging the surrounding tissues. Liquid biopsy approaches analyzing circulating tumor DNA show high potential as an alternative and less invasive tool to study the DNA methylation pattern of tumors. Here, we explore the potential of classifying pediatric brain tumors based on methylation profiling of the circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). For this proof-of-concept study, we collected cerebrospinal fluid samples from 19 pediatric brain cancer patients via a ventricular drain placed for reasons of increased intracranial pressure. Analyses on the cfDNA showed high variability of cfDNA quantities across patients ranging from levels below the limit of quantification to 40 ng cfDNA per milliliter of CSF. Classification based on methylation profiling of cfDNA from CSF was correct for 7 out of 20 samples in our cohort. Accurate results were mostly observed in samples of high quality, more specifically those with limited high molecular weight DNA contamination. Interestingly, we show that centrifugation of the CSF prior to processing increases the fraction of fragmented cfDNA to high molecular weight DNA. In addition, classification was mostly correct for samples with high tumoral cfDNA fraction as estimated by computational deconvolution (> 40%). In summary, analysis of cfDNA in the CSF shows potential as a tool for diagnosing pediatric nervous system tumors especially in patients with high levels of tumoral cfDNA in the CSF. Further optimization of the collection procedure, experimental workflow and bioinformatic approach is required to also allow classification for patients with low tumoral fractions in the CSF.

Early ctDNA kinetics as a dynamic biomarker of cancer treatment response

Circulating tumor DNA assays are promising tools for the prediction of cancer treatment response. Here, we build a framework for the design of ctDNA biomarkers of therapy response that incorporate variations in ctDNA dynamics driven by specific treatment mechanisms. We develop mathematical models of ctDNA kinetics driven by tumor response to several therapy classes, and utilize them to simulate randomized virtual patient cohorts to test candidate biomarkers. Using this approach, we propose specific biomarkers, based on ctDNA longitudinal features, for targeted therapy, chemotherapy and radiation therapy. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of these biomarkers in predicting treatment response within a randomized virtual patient cohort dataset. These biomarkers are based on novel proposals for ctDNA sampling protocols, consisting of frequent sampling within a compact time window surrounding therapy initiation - which we hypothesize to hold valuable prognostic information on longer-term treatment response. This study highlights a need for tailoring ctDNA sampling protocols and interpretation methodology to specific biological mechanisms of therapy response, and it provides a novel modeling and simulation framework for doing so. In addition, it highlights the potential of ctDNA assays for making early, rapid predictions of treatment response within the first days or weeks of treatment, and generates hypotheses for further clinical testing.

Feasibility of Circulating Tumor DNA Analysis in Patients with Follicular Lymphoma

PURPOSE

The feasibility of sequencing circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in plasma as a biomarker to predict early relapse or poor prognosis in patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) receiving systemic immunochemotherapy is not clear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We sequenced DNA from cell-free plasma that was serially obtained from newly diagnosed FL patients undergoing systemic immunochemotherapy. The mutation profiles of ctDNA at the time of diagnosis and at response evaluation and relapse and/or progression were compared with clinical course and treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Forty samples from patients receiving rituximab-containing immunochemotherapy were analyzed. Baseline sequencing detected mutations in all cases, with the major detected mutations being KMT2C (50%), CREBBP (45%), and KMT2D (45%). The concentration of ctDNA and tumor mutation burden showed a significant association with survival outcome. In particular, the presence of mutations in CREBBP and TP53 showed poor prognosis compared with patients without them. Longitudinal analysis of ctDNA using serially collected plasma samples showed an association between persistence or reappearance of ctDNA mutations and disease relapse or progression.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of ctDNA mutations in plasma at diagnosis might help predict outcome of disease, while analysis during follow-up may help to monitor disease status of patients with advanced FL. However, the feasibility of ctDNA measurement must be improved in order for it to become an appropriate and clinically relevant test in FL patients.

Ultrasensitive plasma-based monitoring of tumor burden using machine-learning-guided signal enrichment

In solid tumor oncology, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is poised to transform care through accurate assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD) and therapeutic response monitoring. To overcome the sparsity of ctDNA fragments in low tumor fraction (TF) settings and increase MRD sensitivity, we previously leveraged genome-wide mutational integration through plasma whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Here we now introduce MRD-EDGE, a machine-learning-guided WGS ctDNA single-nucleotide variant (SNV) and copy-number variant (CNV) detection platform designed to increase signal enrichment. MRD-EDGESNV uses deep learning and a ctDNA-specific feature space to increase SNV signal-to-noise enrichment in WGS by ~300× compared to previous WGS error suppression. MRD-EDGECNV also reduces the degree of aneuploidy needed for ultrasensitive CNV detection through WGS from 1 Gb to 200 Mb, vastly expanding its applicability within solid tumors. We harness the improved performance to identify MRD following surgery in multiple cancer types, track changes in TF in response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy in lung cancer and demonstrate ctDNA shedding in precancerous colorectal adenomas. Finally, the radical signal-to-noise enrichment in MRD-EDGESNV enables plasma-only (non-tumor-informed) disease monitoring in advanced melanoma and lung cancer, yielding clinically informative TF monitoring for patients on immune-checkpoint inhibition.

A Real-World Assessment of Stage I Lung Cancer Through Electronic Nose Technology

INTRODUCTION

Electronic nose (E-nose) technology has reported excellent sensitivity and specificity in the setting of lung cancer screening. However, the performance of E-nose specifically for early-stage tumors remains unclear. Therefore, the aim of our study was to assess the diagnostic performance of E-nose technology in clinical stage I lung cancer.

METHODS

This phase IIc trial (NCT04734145) included patients diagnosed with a single greater than or equal to 50% solid stage I nodule. Exhalates were prospectively collected from January 2020 to August 2023. Blinded bioengineers analyzed the exhalates, using E-nose technology to determine the probability of malignancy. Patients were stratified into three risk groups (low-risk, [<0.2]; moderate-risk, [≥0.2-0.7]; high-risk, [≥0.7]). The primary outcome was the diagnostic performance of E-nose versus histopathology (accuracy and F1 score). The secondary outcome was the clinical performance of the E-nose versus clinicoradiological prediction models.

RESULTS

Based on the predefined cutoff (<0.20), E-nose agreed with histopathologic results in 86% of cases, achieving an F1 score of 92.5%, based on 86 true positives, two false negatives, and 12 false positives (n = 100). E-nose would refer fewer patients with malignant nodules to observation (low-risk: 2 versus 9 and 11, respectively; p = 0.028 and p = 0.011) than would the Swensen and Brock models and more patients with malignant nodules to treatment without biopsy (high-risk: 27 versus 19 and 6, respectively; p = 0.057 and p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of clinical stage I lung cancer, E-nose agrees well with histopathology. Accordingly, E-nose technology can be used in addition to imaging or as part of a "multiomics" platform.

Assay Validation of Cell-Free DNA Shallow Whole-Genome Sequencing to Determine Tumor Fraction in Advanced Cancers

Blood-based liquid biopsy is increasingly used in clinical care of patients with cancer, and fraction of tumor-derived DNA in circulation (tumor fraction; TFx) has demonstrated clinical validity across multiple cancer types. To determine TFx, shallow whole-genome sequencing of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) can be performed from a single blood sample, using an established computational pipeline (ichorCNA), without prior knowledge of tumor mutations, in a highly cost-effective manner. We describe assay validation of this approach to facilitate broad clinical application, including evaluation of assay sensitivity, precision, repeatability, reproducibility, pre-analytic factors, and DNA quality/quantity. Sensitivity to detect TFx of 3% (lower limit of detection) was 97.2% to 100% at 1× and 0.1× mean sequencing depth, respectively. Precision was demonstrated on distinct sequencing instruments (HiSeqX and NovaSeq) with no observable differences. The assay achieved prespecified 95% agreement of TFx across replicates of the same specimen (repeatability) and duplicate samples in different batches (reproducibility). Comparison of samples collected in EDTA and Streck tubes from single venipuncture in 23 patients demonstrated that EDTA or Streck tubes were comparable if processed within 8 hours. On the basis of a range of DNA inputs (1 to 50 ng), 20 ng cfDNA is the preferred input, with 5 ng minimum acceptable. Overall, this shallow whole-genome sequencing of cfDNA and ichorCNA approach offers sensitive, precise, and reproducible quantitation of TFx, facilitating assay application in clinical cancer care.

Bridging horizons beyond CIRCULATE-Japan: a new paradigm in molecular residual disease detection via whole genome sequencing-based circulating tumor DNA assay

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is the fraction of cell-free DNA in patient blood that originates from a tumor. Advances in DNA sequencing technologies and our understanding of the molecular biology of tumors have increased interest in exploiting ctDNA to facilitate detection of molecular residual disease (MRD). Analysis of ctDNA as a promising MRD biomarker of solid malignancies has a central role in precision medicine initiatives exemplified by our CIRCULATE-Japan project involving patients with resectable colorectal cancer. Notably, the project underscores the prognostic significance of the ctDNA status at 4 weeks post-surgery and its correlation to adjuvant therapy efficacy at interim analysis. This substantiates the hypothesis that MRD is a critical prognostic indicator of relapse in patients with colorectal cancer. Despite remarkable advancements, challenges endure, primarily attributable to the exceedingly low ctDNA concentration in peripheral blood, particularly in scenarios involving low tumor shedding and the intrinsic error rates of current sequencing technologies. These complications necessitate more sensitive and sophisticated assays to verify the clinical utility of MRD across all solid tumors. Whole genome sequencing (WGS)-based tumor-informed MRD assays have recently demonstrated the ability to detect ctDNA in the parts-per-million range. This review delineates the current landscape of MRD assays, highlighting WGS-based approaches as the forefront technique in ctDNA analysis. Additionally, it introduces our upcoming endeavor, WGS-based pan-cancer MRD detection via ctDNA, in our forthcoming project, SCRUM-Japan MONSTAR-SCREEN-3.

Detection of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of Circulating Tumor DNA by Strand Displacement Amplification Coupled with Liquid Chromatography

The detection of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is still a great challenge. In this study, we designed enzyme-assisted nucleic acid strand displacement amplification combined with high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the simultaneous detection of three ctDNA SNPs. First, the trace ctDNA could be hybridized to the specially designed template strand, which initiated the strand displacement nucleic acid amplification process under the synergistic action of DNA polymerase and restriction endonuclease. Then, the targets would be replaced with G-quadruplex fluorescent probes with different tail lengths. Finally, the HPLC-fluorescence assay enabled the separation and quantification of multiple signals. Notably, this method can simultaneously detect both the wild type (WT) and mutant type (MT) of multiple ctDNA SNPs. Within a linear range of 0.1 fM-0.1 nM, the detection limits of BRAF V600E-WT, EGFR T790M-WT, and KRAS 134A-WT and BRAF V600E-MT, EGFR T790M-MT, and KRAS 134A-MT were 29, 31, and 11 aM and 22, 29, and 33 aM, respectively. By using this method, the mutation rates of multiple ctDNA SNPs in blood samples from patients with lung or breast cancer can be obtained in a simple way, providing a convenient and highly sensitive analytical assay for the early screening and monitoring of lung cancer.

Prediction of plasma ctDNA fraction and prognostic implications of liquid biopsy in advanced prostate cancer

No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDNA% correlates with serum and radiographic metrics of disease burden and is highest in patients with liver metastases. ctDNA% strongly predicts overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response independent of therapeutic context and outperformed established prognostic clinical factors. Recognizing that ctDNA-based biomarker genotyping is limited by low ctDNA% in some patients, we leverage the relationship between clinical prognostic factors and ctDNA% to develop a clinically-interpretable machine-learning tool that predicts whether a patient has sufficient ctDNA% for informative ctDNA genotyping (available online: https://www.ctDNA.org ). Our results affirm ctDNA% as an actionable tool for patient risk stratification and provide a practical framework for optimized biomarker testing.

Modeling the Effect of Spatial Structure on Solid Tumor Evolution and Circulating Tumor DNA Composition

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring, while sufficiently advanced to reflect tumor evolution in real time and inform cancer diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis, mainly relies on DNA that originates from cell death via apoptosis or necrosis. In solid tumors, chemotherapy and immune infiltration can induce spatially variable rates of cell death, with the potential to bias and distort the clonal composition of ctDNA. Using a stochastic evolutionary model of boundary-driven growth, we study how elevated cell death on the edge of a tumor can simultaneously impact driver mutation accumulation and the representation of tumor clones and mutation detectability in ctDNA. We describe conditions in which invasive clones are over-represented in ctDNA, clonal diversity can appear elevated in the blood, and spatial bias in shedding can inflate subclonal variant allele frequencies (VAFs). Additionally, we find that tumors that are mostly quiescent can display similar biases but are far less detectable, and the extent of perceptible spatial bias strongly depends on sequence detection limits. Overall, we show that spatially structured shedding might cause liquid biopsies to provide highly biased profiles of tumor state. While this may enable more sensitive detection of expanding clones, it could also increase the risk of targeting a subclonal variant for treatment. Our results indicate that the effects and clinical consequences of spatially variable cell death on ctDNA composition present an important area for future work.

Circulating tumor DNA and radiological tumor volume identify patients at risk for relapse with resected, early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Predicting relapse and overall survival (OS) in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients remains challenging. Therefore, we hypothesized that detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can identify patients with increased risk of relapse and that integrating radiological tumor volume measurement along with ctDNA detectability improves prediction of outcome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analyzed 366 serial plasma samples from 85 patients who underwent surgical resections and assessed ctDNA using a next-generation sequencing liquid biopsy assay, and measured tumor volume using a computed tomography-based three-dimensional annotation.

RESULTS

Our results showed that patients with detectable ctDNA at baseline or after treatment and patients who did not clear ctDNA after treatment had a significantly worse clinical outcome. Integrating radiological analysis allowed the stratification in risk groups prognostic of clinical outcome as confirmed in an independent cohort of 32 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest ctDNA and radiological monitoring could be valuable tools for guiding follow-up care and treatment decisions for early-stage NSCLC patients.

Priming agents transiently reduce the clearance of cell-free DNA to improve liquid biopsies

Liquid biopsies enable early detection and monitoring of diseases such as cancer, but their sensitivity remains limited by the scarcity of analytes such as cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in blood. Improvements to sensitivity have primarily relied on enhancing sequencing technology ex vivo. We sought to transiently augment the level of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in a blood draw by attenuating its clearance in vivo. We report two intravenous priming agents given 1 to 2 hours before a blood draw to recover more ctDNA. Our priming agents consist of nanoparticles that act on the cells responsible for cfDNA clearance and DNA-binding antibodies that protect cfDNA. In tumor-bearing mice, they greatly increase the recovery of ctDNA and improve the sensitivity for detecting small tumors.

Screening approaches for lung cancer by blood-based biomarkers: Challenges and opportunities

Lung cancer (LC) is one of the leading causes for cancer-related deaths in the world, accounting for 28% of all cancer deaths in Europe. Screening for lung cancer can enable earlier detection of LC and reduce lung cancer mortality as was demonstrated in several large image-based screening studies such as the NELSON and the NLST. Based on these studies, screening is recommended in the US and in the UK a targeted lung health check program was initiated. In Europe lung cancer screening (LCS) has not been implemented due to limited data on cost-effectiveness in the different health care systems and questions on for example the selection of high-risk individuals, adherence to screening, management of indeterminate nodules, and risk of overdiagnosis. Liquid biomarkers are considered to have a high potential to address these questions by supporting pre- and post- Low Dose CT (LDCT) risk-assessment thereby improving the overall efficacy of LCS. A wide variety of biomarkers, including cfDNA, miRNA, proteins and inflammatory markers have been studied in the context of LCS. Despite the available data, biomarkers are currently not implemented or evaluated in screening studies or screening programs. As a result, it remains an open question which biomarker will actually improve a LCS program and do this against acceptable costs. In this paper we discuss the current status of different promising biomarkers and the challenges and opportunities of blood-based biomarkers in the context of lung cancer screening.

Extensive elimination of acinar cells during normal postnatal pancreas growth

While programmed cell death plays important roles during morphogenetic stages of development, post-differentiation organ growth is considered an efficient process whereby cell proliferation increases cell number. Here we demonstrate that early postnatal growth of the pancreas unexpectedly involves massive acinar cell elimination. Measurements of cell proliferation and death in the human pancreas in comparison to the actual increase in cell number predict daily elimination of 0.7% of cells, offsetting 88% of cell formation over the first year of life. Using mouse models, we show that death is associated with mitosis, through a failure of dividing cells to generate two viable daughters. In p53-deficient mice, acinar cell death and proliferation are reduced, while organ size is normal, suggesting that p53-dependent developmental apoptosis triggers compensatory proliferation. We propose that excess cell turnover during growth of the pancreas, and presumably other organs, facilitates robustness to perturbations and supports maintenance of tissue architecture.

A Novel Tissue-Free Method to Estimate Tumor-Derived Cell-Free DNA Quantity Using Tumor Methylation Patterns

Estimating the abundance of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragments shed from a tumor (i.e., circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)) can approximate tumor burden, which has numerous clinical applications. We derived a novel, broadly applicable statistical method to quantify cancer-indicative methylation patterns within cfDNA to estimate ctDNA abundance, even at low levels. Our algorithm identified differentially methylated regions (DMRs) between a reference database of cancer tissue biopsy samples and cfDNA from individuals without cancer. Then, without utilizing matched tissue biopsy, counts of fragments matching the cancer-indicative hyper/hypo-methylated patterns within DMRs were used to determine a tumor methylated fraction (TMeF; a methylation-based quantification of the circulating tumor allele fraction and estimate of ctDNA abundance) for plasma samples. TMeF and small variant allele fraction (SVAF) estimates of the same cancer plasma samples were correlated (Spearman's correlation coefficient: 0.73), and synthetic dilutions to expected TMeF of 10-3 and 10-4 had estimated TMeF within two-fold for 95% and 77% of samples, respectively. TMeF increased with cancer stage and tumor size and inversely correlated with survival probability. Therefore, tumor-derived fragments in the cfDNA of patients with cancer can be leveraged to estimate ctDNA abundance without the need for a tumor biopsy, which may provide non-invasive clinical approximations of tumor burden.

Modeling early treatment response in AML from cell-free tumor DNA

Monitoring disease response after intensive chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) currently requires invasive bone marrow biopsies, imposing a significant burden on patients. In contrast, cell-free tumor DNA (ctDNA) in peripheral blood, carrying tumor-specific mutations, offers a less-invasive assessment of residual disease. However, the relationship between ctDNA levels and bone marrow blast kinetics remains unclear. We explored this in 10 AML patients with NPM1 and IDH2 mutations undergoing initial chemotherapy. Comparison of mathematical mixed-effect models showed that (1) inclusion of blast cell death in the bone marrow, (2) transition of ctDNA to peripheral blood, and (3) ctDNA decay in peripheral blood describes kinetics of blast cells and ctDNA best. The fitted model allows prediction of residual bone marrow blast content from ctDNA, and its scaling factor, representing clonal heterogeneity, correlates with relapse risk. Our study provides precise insights into blast and ctDNA kinetics, offering novel avenues for AML disease monitoring.

Residual circulating tumor DNA after adjuvant chemotherapy effectively predicts recurrence of stage II-III gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising biomarker for predicting relapse in multiple solid cancers. However, the predictive value of ctDNA for disease recurrence remains indefinite in locoregional gastric cancer (GC). Here, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ctDNA in this context.

METHODS

From 2016 to 2019, 100 patients with stage II/III resectable GC were recruited in this prospective cohort study (NCT02887612). Primary tumors were collected during surgical resection, and plasma samples were collected perioperatively and within 3 months after adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Somatic variants were captured via a targeted sequencing panel of 425 cancer-related genes. The plasma was defined as ctDNA-positive only if one or more variants detected in the plasma were presented in at least 2% of the primary tumors.

RESULTS

Compared with ctDNA-negative patients, patients with positive postoperative ctDNA had moderately higher risk of recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-5.48; P = 0.003], while patients with positive post-ACT ctDNA showed remarkably higher risk (HR = 14.99, 95% CI = 3.08-72.96; P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses indicated that both postoperative and post-ACT ctDNA positivity were independent predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS). Moreover, post-ACT ctDNA achieved better predictive performance (sensitivity, 77.8%; specificity, 90.6%) than both postoperative ctDNA and serial cancer antigen. A comprehensive model incorporating ctDNA for recurrence risk prediction showed a higher C-index (0.78; 95% CI = 0.71-0.84) than the model without ctDNA (0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.79; P = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Residual ctDNA after ACT effectively predicts high recurrence risk in stage II/III GC, and the combination of tissue-based and circulating tumor features could achieve better risk prediction.

Modeling the effect of spatial structure on solid tumor evolution and ctDNA composition

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring, while sufficiently advanced to reflect tumor evolution in real time and inform on cancer diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis, mainly relies on DNA that originates from cell death via apoptosis or necrosis. In solid tumors, chemotherapy and immune infiltration can induce spatially variable rates of cell death, with the potential to bias and distort the clonal composition of ctDNA. Using a stochastic evolutionary model of boundary-driven growth, we study how elevated cell death on the edge of a tumor can simultaneously impact driver mutation accumulation and the representation of tumor clones and mutation detectability in ctDNA. We describe conditions in which invasive clones end up over-represented in ctDNA, clonal diversity can appear elevated in the blood, and spatial bias in shedding can inflate subclonal variant allele frequencies (VAFs). Additionally, we find that tumors that are mostly quiescent can display similar biases, but are far less detectable, and the extent of perceptible spatial bias strongly depends on sequence detection limits. Overall, we show that spatially structured shedding might cause liquid biopsies to provide highly biased profiles of tumor state. While this may enable more sensitive detection of expanding clones, it could also increase the risk of targeting a subclonal variant for treatment. Our results indicate that the effects and clinical consequences of spatially variable cell death on ctDNA composition present an important area for future work.

Early Detection of Lung Cancer Using Small RNAs

INTRODUCTION

Lung cancer remains the deadliest cancer in the world, and lung cancer survival is heavily dependent on tumor stage at the time of detection. Low-dose computed tomography screening can reduce mortality; however, annual screening is limited by low adherence in the United States of America and still not broadly implemented in Europe. As a result, less than 10% of lung cancers are detected through existing programs. Thus, there is a great need for additional screening tests, such as a blood test, that could be deployed in the primary care setting.

METHODS

We prospectively recruited 1384 individuals meeting the National Lung Screening Trial demographic eligibility criteria for lung cancer and collected stabilized whole blood to enable the pipetting-free collection of material, thus minimizing preanalytical noise. Ultra-deep small RNA sequencing (20 million reads per sample) was performed with the addition of a method to remove highly abundant erythroid RNAs, and thus open bandwidth for the detection of less abundant species originating from the plasma or the immune cellular compartment. We used 100 random data splits to train and evaluate an ensemble of logistic regression classifiers using small RNA expression of 943 individuals, discovered an 18-small RNA feature consensus signature (miLung), and validated this signature in an independent cohort (441 individuals). Blood cell sorting and tumor tissue sequencing were performed to deconvolve small RNAs into their source of origin.

RESULTS

We generated diagnostic models and report a median receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84-0.86) in the discovery cohort and generalized performance of 0.83 in the validation cohort. Diagnostic performance increased in a stage-dependent manner ranging from 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.76) for stage I to 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89-0.90) for stage IV in the discovery cohort and from 0.76 to 0.86 in the validation cohort. We identified a tumor-shed, plasma-bound ribosomal RNA fragment of the L1 stalk as a dominant predictor of lung cancer. The fragment is decreased after surgery with curative intent. In additional experiments, results of dried blood spot collection and sequencing revealed that small RNA analysis could potentially be conducted through home sampling.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest the potential of a small RNA-based blood test as a viable alternative to low-dose computed tomography screening for early detection of smoking-associated lung cancer.

Efficacy of Lorlatinib in Treatment-Naive Patients With ALK-Positive Advanced NSCLC in Relation to EML4::ALK Variant Type and ALK With or Without TP53 Mutations

INTRODUCTION

Lorlatinib, a third-generation ALK tyrosine kinase inhibitor, improved outcomes compared with crizotinib in patients with previously untreated ALK-positive advanced NSCLC in the phase 3 CROWN study. Here, we investigated response correlates using plasma circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and tumor tissue profiling.

METHODS

ALK fusions and ALK with or without TP53 mutations were assessed by next-generation sequencing. End points included objective response rate (ORR), duration of response, and progression-free survival (PFS) by blinded independent central review on the basis of EML4::ALK variants and ALK with or without TP53 or other mutation status.

RESULTS

ALK fusions were detected in the ctDNA of 62 patients in the lorlatinib arm and 64 patients in the crizotinib arm. ORRs were numerically higher with lorlatinib versus crizotinib for EML4::ALK variant 1 (v1; 80.0% versus 50.0%) and variant 2 (v2; 85.7% versus 50.0%) but were similar between the arms for variant 3 (v3; 72.2% versus 73.9%). Median PFS in the lorlatinib arm was not reached for EML4::ALK v1 and v2 and was 33.3 months for v3; in the crizotinib arm, median PFS was 7.4 months, not reached, and 5.5 months, respectively. ORRs and PFS were improved with lorlatinib versus crizotinib regardless of TP53 mutation status and in patients harboring preexisting bypass pathway resistance alterations. In the lorlatinib arm, PFS was lower in patients who had a co-occurring TP53 mutation. Results from ctDNA analysis were similar to those observed with tumor tissue samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with untreated ALK-positive advanced NSCLC derived greater clinical benefits, with higher ORRs and potentially longer PFS, when treated with lorlatinib compared with crizotinib, independent of EML4::ALK variant or ALK mutations, TP53 mutations, or bypass resistance alterations.

Stochastic model for cell population dynamics quantifies homeostasis in colonic crypts and its disruption in early tumorigenesis

The questions of how healthy colonic crypts maintain their size, and how homeostasis is disrupted by driver mutations, are central to understanding colorectal tumorigenesis. We propose a three-type stochastic branching process, which accounts for stem, transit-amplifying (TA) and fully differentiated (FD) cells, to model the dynamics of cell populations residing in colonic crypts. Our model is simple in its formulation, allowing us to estimate all but one of the model parameters from the literature. Fitting the single remaining parameter, we find that model results agree well with data from healthy human colonic crypts, capturing the considerable variance in population sizes observed experimentally. Importantly, our model predicts a steady-state population in healthy colonic crypts for relevant parameter values. We show that APC and KRAS mutations, the most significant early alterations leading to colorectal cancer, result in increased steady-state populations in mutated crypts, in agreement with experimental results. Finally, our model predicts a simple condition for unbounded growth of cells in a crypt, corresponding to colorectal malignancy. This is predicted to occur when the division rate of TA cells exceeds their differentiation rate, with implications for therapeutic cancer prevention strategies.

Analysis of circulating tumor DNA during checkpoint inhibition in metastatic melanoma using a tumor-agnostic panel

Immunotherapy has revolutionized treatment of patients diagnosed with metastatic melanoma, where nearly half of patients receive clinical benefit. However, immunotherapy is also associated with immune-related adverse events, which may be severe and persistent. It is therefore important to identify patients that do not benefit from therapy early. Currently, regularly scheduled CT scans are used to investigate size changes in target lesions to evaluate progression and therapy response. This study aims to explore if panel-based analysis of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) taken at 3-week intervals may provide a window into the growing cancer, can be used to identify nonresponding patients early, and determine genomic alterations associated with acquired resistance to checkpoint immunotherapy without analysis of tumor tissue biopsies. We designed a gene panel for ctDNA analysis and sequenced 4-6 serial plasma samples from 24 patients with unresectable stage III or IV melanoma and treated with first-line checkpoint inhibitors enrolled at the Department of Oncology at Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. TERT was the most mutated gene found in ctDNA and associated with a poor prognosis. We detected more ctDNA in patients with high metastatic load, which indicates that more aggressive tumors release more ctDNA into the bloodstream. Although we did not find evidence of specific mutations associated with acquired resistance, we did demonstrate in this limited cohort of 24 patients that untargeted, panel-based ctDNA analysis has the potential to be used as a minimally invasive tool in clinical practice to identify patients where the benefits of immunotherapy outweigh the drawbacks.

Diagnostic value of methylated branched chain amino acid transaminase 1/IKAROS family zinc finger 1 for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic value of combined methylated branched chain amino acid transaminase 1 (BCAT1)/IKAROS family zinc finger 1 (IKZF1) in plasma for colorectal cancer (CRC) has been explored since 2015. Recently, several related studies have published their results and showed its diagnostic efficacy.

AIM

To analyze the diagnostic value of methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 in plasma for screening and postoperative follow-up of CRC.

METHODS

The candidate studies were identified by searching the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, and Wanfang databases from May 31, 2003 to June 1, 2023. Sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy were calculated by merging ratios or means.

RESULTS

Twelve eligible studies were included in the analysis, involving 6561 participants. The sensitivity of methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 in plasma for CRC diagnosis was 60% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53-67] and specificity was 92% (95%CI: 90-94). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 8.0 (95%CI: 5.8-11.0) and 0.43 (95%CI: 0.36-0.52), respectively. Diagnostic odds ratio was 19 (95%CI: 11-30) and area under the curve was 0.88 (95%CI: 0.85-0.91). The sensitivity and specificity for CRC screening were 64% (95%CI: 59-69) and 92% (95%CI: 91-93), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for recurrence detection during follow-up were 54% (95%CI: 42-67) and 93% (95%CI: 88-96), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The detection of methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 in plasma, as a non-invasive detection method of circulating tumor DNA, has potential CRC diagnosis, but the clinical application prospect needs to be further explored.

Development and Multicenter Case-Control Validation of Urinary Comprehensive Genomic Profiling for Urothelial Carcinoma Diagnosis, Surveillance, and Risk-Prediction

PURPOSE

Urinary comprehensive genomic profiling (uCGP) uses next-generation sequencing to identify mutations associated with urothelial carcinoma and has the potential to improve patient outcomes by noninvasively diagnosing disease, predicting grade and stage, and estimating recurrence risk.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

This is a multicenter case-control study using banked urine specimens collected from patients undergoing initial diagnosis/hematuria workup or urothelial carcinoma surveillance. A total of 581 samples were analyzed by uCGP: 333 for disease classification and grading algorithm development, and 248 for blinded validation. uCGP testing was done using the UroAmp platform, which identifies five classes of mutation: single-nucleotide variants, copy-number variants, small insertion-deletions, copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, and aneuploidy. UroAmp algorithms predicting urothelial carcinoma tumor presence, grade, and recurrence risk were compared with cytology, cystoscopy, and pathology.

RESULTS

uCGP algorithms had a validation sensitivity/specificity of 95%/90% for initial cancer diagnosis in patients with hematuria and demonstrated a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99%. A positive diagnostic likelihood ratio (DLR) of 9.2 and a negative DLR of 0.05 demonstrate the ability to risk-stratify patients presenting with hematuria. In surveillance patients, binary urothelial carcinoma classification demonstrated an NPV of 91%. uCGP recurrence-risk prediction significantly prognosticated future recurrence (hazard ratio, 6.2), whereas clinical risk factors did not. uCGP demonstrated positive predictive value (PPV) comparable with cytology (45% vs. 42%) with much higher sensitivity (79% vs. 25%). Finally, molecular grade predictions had a PPV of 88% and a specificity of 95%.

CONCLUSIONS

uCGP enables noninvasive, accurate urothelial carcinoma diagnosis and risk stratification in both hematuria and urothelial carcinoma surveillance patients.

Calibration of cell-free DNA measurements by next-generation sequencing

OBJECTIVES

Accurate monitoring of disease burden depends on accurate disease marker quantification. Although next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a promising technology for noninvasive monitoring, plasma cell-free DNA levels are often reported in misleading units that are confounded by non-disease-related factors. We proposed a novel strategy for calibrating NGS assays using spiked normalizers to improve precision and to promote standardization and harmonization of analyte concentrations.

METHODS

In this study, we refined our NGS protocol to calculate absolute analyte concentrations to (1) adjust for assay efficiency, as judged by recovery of spiked synthetic normalizer DNAs, and (2) calibrate NGS values against droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). As a model target, we chose the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome. In patient (n = 12) and mock (n = 12) plasmas, NGS and 2 EBV ddPCR assays were used to report EBV load in copies per mL of plasma.

RESULTS

Next-generation sequencing was equally sensitive to ddPCR, with improved linearity when NGS values were normalized for spiked DNA read counts (R2 = 0.95 for normalized vs 0.91 for raw read concentrations). Linearity permitted NGS calibration to each ddPCR assay, achieving equivalent concentrations (copies/mL).

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel strategy for calibrating NGS assays suggests potential for a universal reference material to overcome biological and preanalytical variables hindering traditional NGS strategies for quantifying disease burden.

Plasma proteome of growing tumors

Early detection of cancer is vital for the best chance of successful treatment, but half of all cancers are diagnosed at an advanced stage. A simple and reliable blood screening test applied routinely would therefore address a major unmet medical need. To gain insight into the value of protein biomarkers in early detection and stratification of cancer we determined the time course of changes in the plasma proteome of mice carrying transplanted human lung, breast, colon, or ovarian tumors. For protein measurements we used an aptamer-based assay which simultaneously measures ~ 5000 proteins. Along with tumor lineage-specific biomarkers, we also found 15 markers shared among all cancer types that included the energy metabolism enzymes glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase, glucose-6-phophate isomerase and dihydrolipoyl dehydrogenase as well as several important biomarkers for maintaining protein, lipid, nucleotide, or carbohydrate balance such as tryptophanyl t-RNA synthetase and nucleoside diphosphate kinase. Using significantly altered proteins in the tumor bearing mice, we developed models to stratify tumor types and to estimate the minimum detectable tumor volume. Finally, we identified significantly enriched common and unique biological pathways among the eight tumor cell lines tested.

Individualized dynamic methylation-based analysis of cell-free DNA in postoperative monitoring of lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The feasibility of DNA methylation-based assays in detecting minimal residual disease (MRD) and postoperative monitoring remains unestablished. We aim to investigate the dynamic characteristics of cancer-related methylation signals and the feasibility of methylation-based MRD detection in surgical lung cancer patients.

METHODS

Matched tumor, tumor-adjacent tissues, and longitudinal blood samples from a cohort (MEDAL) were analyzed by ultra-deep targeted sequencing and bisulfite sequencing. A tumor-informed methylation-based MRD (timMRD) was employed to evaluate the methylation status of each blood sample. Survival analysis was performed in the MEDAL cohort (n = 195) and validated in an independent cohort (DYNAMIC, n = 36).

RESULTS

Tumor-informed methylation status enabled an accurate recurrence risk assessment better than the tumor-naïve methylation approach. Baseline timMRD-scores were positively correlated with tumor burden, invasiveness, and the existence and abundance of somatic mutations. Patients with higher timMRD-scores at postoperative time-points demonstrated significantly shorter disease-free survival in the MEDAL cohort (HR: 3.08, 95% CI: 1.48-6.42; P = 0.002) and the independent DYNAMIC cohort (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 0.96-8.20; P = 0.041). Multivariable regression analysis identified postoperative timMRD-score as an independent prognostic factor for lung cancer. Compared to tumor-informed somatic mutation status, timMRD-scores yielded better performance in identifying the relapsed patients during postoperative follow-up, including subgroups with lower tumor burden like stage I, and was more accurate among relapsed patients with baseline ctDNA-negative status. Comparing to the average lead time of ctDNA mutation, timMRD-score yielded a negative predictive value of 97.2% at 120 days prior to relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic methylation-based analysis of peripheral blood provides a promising strategy for postoperative cancer surveillance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study (MEDAL, MEthylation based Dynamic Analysis for Lung cancer) was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on 08/05/2018 (NCT03634826). https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03634826 .

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England

BACKGROUND

Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.

METHODS

A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.

RESULTS

Estimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.

CONCLUSION

Realising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.

Optimizing the number of variants tracked to follow disease burden with circulating tumor DNA assays in metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

The number of somatic mutations detectable in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is highly heterogeneous in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The optimal number of mutations required to assess disease kinetics is relevant and remains poorly understood.

Objectives

To determine whether increasing panel breadth (the number of tracked variants in a ctDNA assay) would alter the sensitivity in detecting ctDNA in patients with mCRC.

Design

We used archival tissue sequencing to perform an in silico assessment of the optimal number of tracked mutations to detect and monitor disease kinetics in mCRC using sequencing data from the Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO.26 trial.

Methods

For each patient, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, or 16 of the most clonal (highest variant allele frequency) somatic variants were selected from archival tissue-based whole-exome sequencing and assessed for the proportion of variants detected in matched ctDNA at baseline, week 8, and progression timepoints.

Results

Data from 110 patients were analyzed. Genes most frequently encountered among the top four highest VAF variants in archival tissue were TP53 (51.9% of patients), APC (43.3%), KRAS (42.3%), and SMAD4 (9.6%). While the frequency of detecting at least one tracked variant increased when expanding beyond variant pool sizes of 1 and 2 in baseline (p = 0.0030) and progression (p = 0.0030) ctDNA samples, we observed no significant benefit to increases in variant pool size past four variants in any of the ctDNA timepoints (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

While increasing panel breadth beyond two tracked variants improved variant re-detection in ctDNA samples from patients with treatment refractory mCRC, increases beyond four tracked variants yielded no significant improvement in variant re-detection.

Long-Term Outcomes and Molecular Correlates of Sotorasib Efficacy in Patients With Pretreated KRAS G12C-Mutated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: 2-Year Analysis of CodeBreaK 100

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned co-primary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical Trial Updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported.In the longest follow-up, to our knowledge, for a KRASG12C inhibitor, we assessed the long-term efficacy, safety, and biomarkers of sotorasib in patients with KRAS G12C-mutated advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the CodeBreaK 100 clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03600883). This multicenter, single-group, open-label phase I/phase II trial enrolled 174 patients with KRAS G12C-mutated, locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC after progression on prior therapies. Patients (N = 174) received sotorasib 960 mg once daily with the primary end points for phase I of safety and tolerability and for phase II of objective response rate (ORR). Sotorasib produced an ORR of 41%, median duration of response of 12.3 months, progression-free survival (PFS) of 6.3 months, overall survival (OS) of 12.5 months, and 2-year OS rate of 33%. Long-term clinical benefit (PFS ≥ 12 months) was observed in 40 (23%) patients across PD-L1 expression levels, in a proportion of patients with somatic STK11 and/or KEAP1 alterations, and was associated with lower baseline circulating tumor DNA levels. Sotorasib was well tolerated, with few late-onset treatment-related toxicities, none of which led to treatment discontinuation. These results demonstrate the long-term benefit of sotorasib, including in subgroups with poor prognosis.

Identification of Somatic Mutations in Plasma Cell-Free DNA from Patients with Metastatic Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The accurate diagnosis and treatment of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) requires an understanding of its genomic alterations. Liquid biopsies, especially cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis, are a minimally invasive technique used for genomic profiling. We conducted comprehensive whole-exome sequencing (WES) of 50 paired OSCC cell-free plasma with whole blood samples using multiple mutation calling pipelines and filtering criteria. Integrative Genomics Viewer (IGV) was used to validate somatic mutations. Mutation burden and mutant genes were correlated to clinico-pathological parameters. The plasma mutation burden of cfDNA was significantly associated with clinical staging and distant metastasis status. The genes TTN, PLEC, SYNE1, and USH2A were most frequently mutated in OSCC, and known driver genes, including KMT2D, LRP1B, TRRAP, and FLNA, were also significantly and frequently mutated. Additionally, the novel mutated genes CCDC168, HMCN2, STARD9, and CRAMP1 were significantly and frequently present in patients with OSCC. The mutated genes most frequently found in patients with metastatic OSCC were RORC, SLC49A3, and NUMBL. Further analysis revealed that branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) catabolism, extracellular matrix-receptor interaction, and the hypoxia-related pathway were associated with OSCC prognosis. Choline metabolism in cancer, O-glycan biosynthesis, and protein processing in the endoplasmic reticulum pathway were associated with distant metastatic status. About 20% of tumors carried at least one aberrant event in BCAA catabolism signaling that could possibly be targeted by an approved therapeutic agent. We identified molecular-level OSCC that were correlated with etiology and prognosis while defining the landscape of major altered events of the OSCC plasma genome. These findings will be useful in the design of clinical trials for targeted therapies and the stratification of patients with OSCC according to therapeutic efficacy.

Clinical significance and biology of circulating tumor DNA in high-risk early-stage HER2-negative breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis may improve early-stage breast cancer treatment via non-invasive tumor burden assessment. To investigate subtype-specific differences in the clinical significance and biology of ctDNA shedding, we perform serial personalized ctDNA analysis in hormone receptor (HR)-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in the I-SPY2 trial. ctDNA positivity rates before, during, and after NAC are higher in TNBC than in HR-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer patients. Early clearance of ctDNA 3 weeks after treatment initiation predicts a favorable response to NAC in TNBC only. Whereas ctDNA positivity associates with reduced distant recurrence-free survival in both subtypes. Conversely, ctDNA negativity after NAC correlates with improved outcomes, even in patients with extensive residual cancer. Pretreatment tumor mRNA profiling reveals associations between ctDNA shedding and cell cycle and immune-associated signaling. On the basis of these findings, the I-SPY2 trial will prospectively test ctDNA for utility in redirecting therapy to improve response and prognosis.

Genomic approaches to cancer and minimal residual disease detection using circulating tumor DNA

Liquid biopsies using cell-free circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) are being used frequently in both research and clinical settings. ctDNA can be used to identify actionable mutations to personalize systemic therapy, detect post-treatment minimal residual disease (MRD), and predict responses to immunotherapy. ctDNA can also be isolated from a range of different biofluids, with the possibility of detecting locoregional MRD with increased sensitivity if sampling more proximally than blood plasma. However, ctDNA detection remains challenging in early-stage and post-treatment MRD settings where ctDNA levels are minuscule giving a high risk for false negative results, which is balanced with the risk of false positive results from clonal hematopoiesis. To address these challenges, researchers have developed ever-more elegant approaches to lower the limit of detection (LOD) of ctDNA assays toward the part-per-million range and boost assay sensitivity and specificity by reducing sources of low-level technical and biological noise, and by harnessing specific genomic and epigenomic features of ctDNA. In this review, we highlight a range of modern assays for ctDNA analysis, including advancements made to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. We further highlight the challenge of detecting ultra-rare tumor-associated variants, overcoming which will improve the sensitivity of post-treatment MRD detection and open a new frontier of personalized adjuvant treatment decision-making.

An Inflection Point in Cancer Protein Biomarkers: What Was and What's Next

Biomarkers remain the highest value proposition in cancer medicine today - especially protein biomarkers. Yet despite decades of evolving regulatory frameworks to facilitate the review of emerging technologies, biomarkers have been mostly about promise with very little to show for improvements in human health. Cancer is an emergent property of a complex system and deconvoluting the integrative and dynamic nature of the overall system through biomarkers is a daunting proposition. The last two decades have seen an explosion of multi-omics profiling and a range of advanced technologies for precision medicine, including the emergence of liquid biopsy, exciting advances in single cell analysis, artificial intelligence (machine and deep learning) for data analysis and many other advanced technologies that promise to transform biomarker discovery. Combining multiple omics modalities to acquire a more comprehensive landscape of the disease state, we are increasingly developing biomarkers to support therapy selection and patient monitoring. Furthering precision medicine, especially in oncology, necessitates moving away from the lens of reductionist thinking towards viewing and understanding that complex diseases are, in fact, complex adaptive systems. As such, we believe it is necessary to re-define biomarkers as representations of biological system states at different hierarchical levels of biological order. This definition could include traditional molecular, histologic, radiographic, or physiological characteristics, as well as emerging classes of digital markers and complex algorithms. To succeed in the future, we must move past purely observational individual studies and instead start building a mechanistic framework to enable integrative analysis of new studies within the context of prior studies. Identifying information in complex systems and applying theoretical constructs, such as information theory, to study cancer as a disease of dysregulated communication could prove to be "game changing" for the clinical outcome of cancer patients.

Intratumour microbiome of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is a high mortality malignancy with almost equal mortality and morbidity rates. Both normal and tumour tissues of the pancreas were previously considered sterile. In recent years, with the development of technologies for high-throughput sequencing, a variety of studies have revealed that pancreatic cancer tissues contain small amounts of bacteria and fungi. The intratumour microbiome is being revealed as an influential contributor to carcinogenesis. The intratumour microbiome has been identified as a crucial factor for pancreatic cancer progression, diagnosis, and treatment, chemotherapy resistance, and immune response. A better understanding of the biology of the intratumour microbiome of pancreatic cancer contributes to the establishment of better early cancer screening and treatment strategies. This review focuses on the possible origins of the intratumour microbiome in pancreatic cancer, the intratumour localization, the interaction with the tumour microenvironment, and strategies for improving the outcome of pancreatic cancer treatment. Thus, this review offers new perspectives for improving the prognosis of pancreatic cancer.

Multi-omics integrated circulating cell-free DNA genomic signatures enhanced the diagnostic performance of early-stage lung cancer and postoperative minimal residual disease

BACKGROUND

Liquid biopsy is a promising non-invasive alternative for cancer screening and minimal residual disease (MRD) detection, although there are some concerns regarding its clinical applications. We aimed to develop an accurate detection platform based on liquid biopsy for both cancer screening and MRD detection in patients with lung cancer (LC), which is also applicable to clinical use.

METHODS

We applied a modified whole-genome sequencing (WGS) -based High-performance Infrastructure For MultIomics (HIFI) method for LC screening and postoperative MRD detection by combining the hyper-co-methylated read approach and the circulating single-molecule amplification and resequencing technology (cSMART2.0).

FINDINGS

For early screening of LC, the LC score model was constructed using the support vector machine, which showed sensitivity (51.8%) at high specificity (96.3%) and achieved an AUC of 0.912 in the validation set prospectively enrolled from multiple centers. The screening model achieved detection efficiency with an AUC of 0.906 in patients with lung adenocarcinoma and outperformed other clinical models in solid nodule cohort. When applied the HIFI model to real social population, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.92% was achieved in Chinese population. Additionally, the MRD detection rate improved significantly by combining results from WGS and cSMART2.0, with sensitivity of 73.7% at specificity of 97.3%.

INTERPRETATION

In conclusion, the HIFI method is promising for diagnosis and postoperative monitoring of LC.

FUNDING

This study was supported by CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Natural Science Foundation and Peking University People's Hospital.

A Hybrid Algorithm of ML and XAI to Prevent Breast Cancer: A Strategy to Support Decision Making

Worldwide, the coronavirus has intensified the management problems of health services, significantly harming patients. Some of the most affected processes have been cancer patients' prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Breast cancer is the most affected, with more than 20 million cases and at least 10 million deaths by 2020. Various studies have been carried out to support the management of this disease globally. This paper presents a decision support strategy for health teams based on machine learning (ML) tools and explainability algorithms (XAI). The main methodological contributions are: first, the evaluation of different ML algorithms that allow classifying patients with and without cancer from the available dataset; and second, an ML methodology mixed with an XAI algorithm, which makes it possible to predict the disease and interpret the variables and how they affect the health of patients. The results show that first, the XGBoost Algorithm has a better predictive capacity, with an accuracy of 0.813 for the train data and 0.81 for the test data; and second, with the SHAP algorithm, it is possible to know the relevant variables and their level of significance in the prediction, and to quantify the impact on the clinical condition of the patients, which will allow health teams to offer early and personalized alerts for each patient.

Noninvasive detection of brain gliomas using plasma cell-free DNA 5-hydroxymethylcytosine sequencing

Liquid biopsy techniques based on deep sequencing of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) could detect the low-frequency somatic mutations and provide an accurate diagnosis for many cancers. However, for brain gliomas, reliable performance of these techniques currently requires obtaining cfDNA from patients' cerebral spinal fluid, which is cumbersome and risky. Here we report a liquid biopsy method based on sequencing of plasma cfDNA fragments carrying 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) using selective chemical labeling (hMe-Seal). We first constructed a dataset including 180 glioma patients and 229 non-glioma controls. We found marked concordance between cfDNA hydroxymethylome and the aberrant transcriptome of the underlying gliomas. Functional analysis also revealed overrepresentation of the differentially hydroxymethylated genes (DhmGs) in oncogenic and neural pathways. After splitting our dataset into training and test cohort, we showed that a penalized logistic model constructed with training set DhmGs could distinguish glioma patients from healthy controls in both our test set (AUC = 0.962) and an independent dataset (AUC = 0.930) consisting of 111 gliomas and 111 controls. Additionally, the DhmGs between gliomas with mutant and wild-type isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) could be used to train a cfDNA predictor of the IDH mutation status of the underlying tumor (AUC = 0.816), and patients with predicted IDH mutant gliomas had significantly better outcome (P = .01). These results indicate that our plasma cfDNA 5hmC sequencing method could obtain glioma-specific signals, which may be used to noninvasively detect these patients and predict the aggressiveness of their tumors.

Bridging biological cfDNA features and machine learning approaches

Liquid biopsies (LBs), particularly using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), are expected to revolutionize precision oncology and blood-based cancer screening. Recent technological improvements, in combination with the ever-growing understanding of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) biology, are enabling the detection of tumor-specific changes with extremely high resolution and new analysis concepts beyond genetic alterations, including methylomics, fragmentomics, and nucleosomics. The interrogation of a large number of markers and the high complexity of data render traditional correlation methods insufficient. In this regard, machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to decipher disease- and tissue-specific signals from cfDNA. Here, we review recent insights into biological ctDNA features and how these are incorporated into sophisticated ML applications.

Lesion Shedding Model: unraveling site-specific contributions to ctDNA

Sampling circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) using liquid biopsies offers clinically important benefits for monitoring cancer progression. A single ctDNA sample represents a mixture of shed tumor DNA from all known and unknown lesions within a patient. Although shedding levels have been suggested to hold the key to identifying targetable lesions and uncovering treatment resistance mechanisms, the amount of DNA shed by any one specific lesion is still not well characterized. We designed the Lesion Shedding Model (LSM) to order lesions from the strongest to the poorest shedding for a given patient. By characterizing the lesion-specific ctDNA shedding levels, we can better understand the mechanisms of shedding and more accurately interpret ctDNA assays to improve their clinical impact. We verified the accuracy of the LSM under controlled conditions using a simulation approach as well as testing the model on three cancer patients. The LSM obtained an accurate partial order of the lesions according to their assigned shedding levels in simulations and its accuracy in identifying the top shedding lesion was not significantly impacted by number of lesions. Applying LSM to three cancer patients, we found that indeed there were lesions that consistently shed more than others into the patients' blood. In two of the patients, the top shedding lesion was one of the only clinically progressing lesions at the time of biopsy suggesting a connection between high ctDNA shedding and clinical progression. The LSM provides a much needed framework with which to understand ctDNA shedding and to accelerate discovery of ctDNA biomarkers. The LSM source code has been available in the IBM BioMedSciAI Github (https://github.com/BiomedSciAI/Geno4SD).

Circulating Tumor DNA: The Dawn of a New Era in the Optimization of Chemotherapeutic Strategies for Metastatic Colo-Rectal Cancer Focusing on RAS Mutation

Genotyping of tumor tissues to assess RAS and BRAF V600E mutations enables us to select optimal molecularly targeted therapies when considering treatment strategies for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Tissue-based genetic testing is limited by the difficulty of performing repeated tests, due to the invasive nature of tissue biopsy, and by tumor heterogeneity, which can limit the usefulness of the information it yields. Liquid biopsy, represented by circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), has attracted attention as a novel method for detecting genetic alterations. Liquid biopsies are more convenient and much less invasive than tissue biopsies and are useful for obtaining comprehensive genomic information on primary and metastatic tumors. Assessing ctDNA can help track genomic evolution and the status of alterations in genes such as RAS, which are sometimes altered following chemotherapy. In this review, we discuss the potential clinical applications of ctDNA, summarize clinical trials focusing on RAS, and present the future prospects of ctDNA analysis that could change daily clinical practice.

Modeling tumour heterogeneity of PD-L1 expression in tumour progression and adaptive therapy

Although PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors show potent and durable anti-tumour effects in some refractory tumours, the response rate in overall patients is unsatisfactory, which in part due to the inherent heterogeneity of PD-L1. In order to establish an approach for predicting and estimating the dynamic alternation of PD-L1 heterogeneity during cancer progression and treatment, this study establishes a comprehensive modelling and computational framework based on a mathematical model of cancer cell evolution in the tumour-immune microenvironment, and in combination with epigenetic data and overall survival data of clinical patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Through PD-L1 heterogeneous virtual patients obtained by the computational framework, we explore the adaptive therapy of administering anti-PD-L1 according to the dynamic of PD-L1 state among cancer cells. Our results show that in contrast to the continuous maximum tolerated dose treatment, adaptive therapy is more effective for PD-L1 positive patients, in that it prolongs the survival of patients by administration of drugs at lower dosage.

Circulating tumor nucleic acids: biology, release mechanisms, and clinical relevance

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in early detection and therapies, cancer is still one of the most common causes of death worldwide. Since each tumor is unique, there is a need to implement personalized care and develop robust tools for monitoring treatment response to assess drug efficacy and prevent disease relapse.

MAIN BODY

Recent developments in liquid biopsies have enabled real-time noninvasive monitoring of tumor burden through the detection of molecules shed by tumors in the blood. These molecules include circulating tumor nucleic acids (ctNAs), comprising cell-free DNA or RNA molecules passively and/or actively released from tumor cells. Often highlighted for their diagnostic, predictive, and prognostic potential, these biomarkers possess valuable information about tumor characteristics and evolution. While circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been in the spotlight for the last decade, less is known about circulating tumor RNA (ctRNA). There are unanswered questions about why some tumors shed high amounts of ctNAs while others have undetectable levels. Also, there are gaps in our understanding of associations between tumor evolution and ctNA characteristics and shedding kinetics. In this review, we summarize current knowledge about ctNA biology and release mechanisms and put this information into the context of tumor evolution and clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

A deeper understanding of the biology of ctDNA and ctRNA may inform the use of liquid biopsies in personalized medicine to improve cancer patient outcomes.

An intravenous DNA-binding priming agent protects cell-free DNA and improves the sensitivity of liquid biopsies

Blood-based, or "liquid," biopsies enable minimally invasive diagnostics but have limits on sensitivity due to scarce cell-free DNA (cfDNA). Improvements to sensitivity have primarily relied on enhancing sequencing technology ex vivo . Here, we sought to augment the level of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) detected in a blood draw by attenuating the clearance of cfDNA in vivo . We report a first-in-class intravenous DNA-binding priming agent given 2 hours prior to a blood draw to recover more cfDNA. The DNA-binding antibody minimizes nuclease digestion and organ uptake of cfDNA, decreasing its clearance at 1 hour by over 150-fold. To improve plasma persistence and limit potential immune interactions, we abrogated its Fc-effector function. We found that it protects GC-rich sequences and DNase-hypersensitive sites, which are ordinarily underrepresented in cfDNA. In tumor-bearing mice, priming improved tumor DNA recovery by 19-fold and sensitivity for detecting cancer from 6% to 84%. These results suggest a novel method to enhance the sensitivity of existing DNA-based cancer testing using blood biopsies.

The Application of Nanotechnology for Quantification of Circulating Tumour DNA in Liquid Biopsies: A Systematic Review

Technologies for quantifying circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) in liquid biopsies could enable real-time measurements of cancer progression, profoundly impacting patient care. Sequencing methods can be too complex and time-consuming for regular point-of-care monitoring, but nanotechnology offers an alternative, harnessing the unique properties of objects tens to hundreds of nanometres in size. This systematic review was performed to identify all examples of nanotechnology-based ctDNA detection and assess their potential for clinical use. Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science, Google Patents, Espacenet and Embase/MEDLINE were searched up to 23rd March 2021. The review identified nanotechnology-based methods for ctDNA detection for which quantitative measures (e.g., limit of detection, LOD) were reported and biologically relevant samples were used. The pre-defined inclusion criteria were met by 66 records. LODs ranged from 10 zM to 50nM. 25 records presented an LOD of 10fM or below. Nanotechnology-based approaches could provide the basis for the next wave of advances in ctDNA diagnostics, enabling analysis at the point-of-care, but none are currently used clinically. Further work is needed in development and validation; trade-offs are expected between different performance measures e.g., number of sequences detected and time to result.

Circulating Tumor DNA-Based Genotyping and Monitoring for Predicting Disease Relapses of Patients with Peripheral T-Cell Lymphomas

PURPOSE

Plasma circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could reflect the genetic alterations present in tumor tissues. However, there is little information about the clinical relevance of cell-free DNA genotyping in peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

After targeted sequencing plasma cell-free DNA of patients with various subtypes of PTCL (n=94), we analyzed the mutation profiles of plasma ctDNA samples and their predictive value of dynamic ctDNA monitoring for treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Plasma ctDNA mutations were detected in 53 patients (56%, 53/94), and the detection rate of somatic mutations was highest in angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (24/31, 77%) and PTCL, not otherwise specified (18/29, 62.1%). Somatic mutations were detected in 51 of 66 genes that were sequenced, including the following top 10 ranked genes: RHOA, CREBBP, KMT2D, TP53, IDH2, ALK, MEF2B, SOCS1, CARD11, and KRAS. In the longitudinal assessment of ctDNA mutation, the difference in ctDNA mutation volume after treatment showed a significant correlation with disease relapse or progression. Thus, a ≥ 1.5-log decrease in genome equivalent (GE) between baseline and the end of treatment showed a significant association with better survival outcomes than a < 1.5-log decrease in GE.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest the clinical relevance of plasma ctDNA analysis in patients with PTCL. However, our findings should be validated by a subsequent study with a larger study population and using a broader gene panel.

Detection of circulating tumour DNA after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced oesophageal cancer

Active surveillance instead of standard surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) has been proposed for patients with oesophageal cancer. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) may be used to facilitate selection of patients for surgery. We show that detection of ctDNA after nCRT seems highly suggestive of major residual disease. Tumour biopsies and blood samples were taken before, and 6 and 12 weeks after, nCRT. Biopsies were analysed with regular targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS). Circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was analysed using targeted NGS with unique molecular identifiers and digital polymerase chain reaction. cfDNA mutations matching pre-treatment biopsy mutations confirmed the presence of ctDNA. In total, 31 patients were included, of whom 24 had a biopsy mutation that was potentially detectable in cfDNA (77%). Pre-treatment ctDNA was detected in nine of 24 patients (38%), four of whom had incurable disease progression before surgery. Pre-treatment ctDNA detection had a sensitivity of 47% (95% CI 24-71) (8/17), specificity of 85% (95% CI 42-99) (6/7), positive predictive value (PPV) of 89% (95% CI 51-99) (8/9), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 40% (95% CI 17-67) (6/15) for detecting major residual disease (>10% residue in the resection specimen or progression before surgery). After nCRT, ctDNA was detected in three patients, two of whom had disease progression. Post-nCRT ctDNA detection had a sensitivity of 21% (95% CI 6-51) (3/14), specificity of 100% (95% CI 56-100) (7/7), PPV of 100% (95% CI 31-100) (3/3), and NPV of 39% (95% CI 18-64) (7/18) for detecting major residual disease. The addition of ctDNA to the current set of diagnostics did not lead to more patients being clinically identified with residual disease. These results indicate that pre-treatment and post-nCRT ctDNA detection may be useful in identifying patients at high risk of disease progression. The addition of ctDNA analysis to the current set of diagnostic modalities may not improve detection of residual disease after nCRT. © 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Potential clinical utility of liquid biopsy in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Liquid biopsy has been widely researched for early diagnosis, prognostication and disease monitoring in lung cancer, but there is a need to investigate its clinical utility for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis and systematic review to evaluate diagnostic and prognostic values of liquid biopsy for early-stage NSCLC, regarding the common biomarkers, circulating tumor cells, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), methylation signatures, and microRNAs. Cochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE databases, ClinicalTrials.gov, and reference lists were searched for eligible studies since inception to 17 May 2022. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) were assessed for diagnostic values. Hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was extracted from the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) plots for prognostic analysis. Also, potential predictive values and treatment response evaluation were further investigated.

RESULTS

In this meta-analysis, there were 34 studies eligible for diagnostic assessment and 21 for prognostic analysis. The estimated diagnostic values of biomarkers for early-stage NSCLC with AUCs ranged from 0.84 to 0.87. The factors TNM stage I, T1 stage, N0 stage, adenocarcinoma, young age, and nonsmoking contributed to a lower tumor burden, with a median cell-free DNA concentration of 8.64 ng/ml. For prognostic analysis, the presence of molecular residual disease (MRD) detection was a strong predictor of disease relapse (RFS, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 3.06-8.02; p < 0.001) and inferior OS (HR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.97-7.83; p < 0.001), with average lead time of 179 ± 74 days between molecular recurrence and radiographic progression. Predictive values analysis showed adjuvant therapy significantly benefited the RFS of MRD + patients (HR, 0.27; p < 0.001), while an opposite tendency was detected for MRD - patients (HR, 1.51; p = 0.19). For treatment response evaluation, a strong correlation between pathological response and ctDNA clearance was detected, and both were associated with longer survival after neoadjuvant therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our study indicated liquid biopsy could reliably facilitate more precision and effective management of early-stage NSCLC. Improvement of liquid biopsy techniques and detection approaches and platforms is still needed, and higher-quality trials are required to provide more rigorous evidence prior to their routine clinical application.