1
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Ng WH, Myers CR, McArt S, Ellner SP. A Time for Every Purpose: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis to Help Understand and Manage Dynamic Ecological Systems. Am Nat 2023; 202:630-654. [PMID: 37963117 DOI: 10.1086/726143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2023]
Abstract
AbstractSensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act on. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life history events, and endogenously driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.
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2
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Vitali V, Peters RL, Lehmann MM, Leuenberger M, Treydte K, Büntgen U, Schuler P, Saurer M. Tree-ring isotopes from the Swiss Alps reveal non-climatic fingerprints of cyclic insect population outbreaks over the past 700 years. TREE PHYSIOLOGY 2023; 43:706-721. [PMID: 36738262 PMCID: PMC10177004 DOI: 10.1093/treephys/tpad014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Recent experiments have underlined the potential of δ2H in tree-ring cellulose as a physiological indicator of shifts in autotrophic versus heterotrophic processes (i.e., the use of fresh versus stored non-structural carbohydrates). However, the impact of these processes has not yet been quantified under natural conditions. Defoliator outbreaks disrupt tree functioning and carbon assimilation, stimulating remobilization, therefore providing a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of changes in δ2H. By exploring a 700-year tree-ring isotope chronology from Switzerland, we assessed the impact of 79 larch budmoth (LBM, Zeiraphera griseana [Hübner]) outbreaks on the growth of its host tree species, Larix decidua [Mill]. The LBM outbreaks significantly altered the tree-ring isotopic signature, creating a 2H-enrichment and an 18O- and 13C-depletion. Changes in tree physiological functioning in outbreak years are shown by the decoupling of δ2H and δ18O (O-H relationship), in contrast to the positive correlation in non-outbreak years. Across the centuries, the O-H relationship in outbreak years was not significantly affected by temperature, indicating that non-climatic physiological processes dominate over climate in determining δ2H. We conclude that the combination of these isotopic parameters can serve as a metric for assessing changes in physiological mechanisms over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentina Vitali
- Stable Isotope Research Centre (SIRC), Ecosystem Ecology, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Richard L Peters
- Physiological Plant Ecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Schönbeinstrasse 6, Basel CH-4056, Switzerland
| | - Marco M Lehmann
- Stable Isotope Research Centre (SIRC), Ecosystem Ecology, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Markus Leuenberger
- Climate and Environmental Physics Division and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Kerstin Treydte
- Department of Dendrosciences, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Ulf Büntgen
- Department of Dendrosciences, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
- Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno 611 37, Czech Republic
| | - Philipp Schuler
- Stable Isotope Research Centre (SIRC), Ecosystem Ecology, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Matthias Saurer
- Stable Isotope Research Centre (SIRC), Ecosystem Ecology, Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903, Switzerland
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3
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Ng WH, Myers CR, McArt S, Ellner SP. A time for every purpose: using time-dependent sensitivity analysis to help understand and manage dynamic ecological systems. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.04.13.536769. [PMID: 37090628 PMCID: PMC10120680 DOI: 10.1101/2023.04.13.536769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/25/2023]
Abstract
Sensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems, by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act upon. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life-history events, and endogenously-driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wee Hao Ng
- Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853
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4
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Bogdziewicz M, Journé V, Hacket-Pain A, Szymkowiak J. Mechanisms driving interspecific variation in regional synchrony of trees reproduction. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:754-764. [PMID: 36888560 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2022] [Revised: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Abstract
Seed production in many plants is characterized by large interannual variation, which is synchronized at subcontinental scales in some species but local in others. The reproductive synchrony affects animal migrations, trophic responses to resource pulses and the planning of management and conservation. Spatial synchrony of reproduction is typically attributed to the Moran effect, but this alone is unable to explain interspecific differences in synchrony. We show that interspecific differences in the conservation of seed production-weather relationships combine with the Moran effect to explain variation in reproductive synchrony. Conservative timing of weather cues that trigger masting allows populations to be synchronized at distances >1000 km. Conversely, if populations respond to variable weather signals, synchrony cannot be achieved. Our study shows that species vary in the extent to which their weather cueing is spatiotemporally conserved, with important consequences, including an interspecific variation of masting vulnerability to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Bogdziewicz
- Faculty of Biology, Forest Biology Center, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland.,Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne (LESSEM), Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (IN-RAE), Université Grenoble Alpes, St. Martin-d'Hères, France
| | - Valentin Journé
- Faculty of Biology, Forest Biology Center, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
| | - Andrew Hacket-Pain
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Jakub Szymkowiak
- Faculty of Biology, Forest Biology Center, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland.,Population Ecology Research Unit, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
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5
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Roos D, Caminero-Saldaña C, Elston D, Mougeot F, García-Ariza MC, Arroyo B, Luque-Larena JJ, Revilla FJR, Lambin X. From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1986-1998. [PMID: 35908289 PMCID: PMC9543711 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi‐annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation–inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio‐temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large‐scale (>35,000 km2), multi‐year (2011–2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deon Roos
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.,Área de Plagas, Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla-y-León (ITACyL), Valladolid, Spain
| | | | - David Elston
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, Aberdeen, UK
| | - François Mougeot
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real, Spain
| | | | - Beatriz Arroyo
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Juan José Luque-Larena
- Dpto. Ciencias Agroforestales, ETSIIAA, Universidad de Valladolid, Palencia, Spain.,Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Gestión Forestal Sostenible, Palencia, Spain
| | | | - Xavier Lambin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
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6
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Bogdziewicz M, Hacket-Pain A, Ascoli D, Szymkowiak J. Environmental variation drives continental-scale synchrony of European beech reproduction. Ecology 2021; 102:e03384. [PMID: 33950521 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2020] [Revised: 01/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance-decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Bogdziewicz
- Department of Systematic Zoology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
| | - Andrew Hacket-Pain
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Davide Ascoli
- Department of Agricultural, Forestry and Food Sciences, University of Torino, Grugliasco, Italy
| | - Jakub Szymkowiak
- Population Ecology Research Unit, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
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7
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Tredennick AT, Hooker G, Ellner SP, Adler PB. A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology. Ecology 2021; 102:e03336. [PMID: 33710619 PMCID: PMC8187274 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Selecting among competing statistical models is a core challenge in science. However, the many possible approaches and techniques for model selection, and the conflicting recommendations for their use, can be confusing. We contend that much confusion surrounding statistical model selection results from failing to first clearly specify the purpose of the analysis. We argue that there are three distinct goals for statistical modeling in ecology: data exploration, inference, and prediction. Once the modeling goal is clearly articulated, an appropriate model selection procedure is easier to identify. We review model selection approaches and highlight their strengths and weaknesses relative to each of the three modeling goals. We then present examples of modeling for exploration, inference, and prediction using a time series of butterfly population counts. These show how a model selection approach flows naturally from the modeling goal, leading to different models selected for different purposes, even with exactly the same data set. This review illustrates best practices for ecologists and should serve as a reminder that statistical recipes cannot substitute for critical thinking or for the use of independent data to test hypotheses and validate predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew T Tredennick
- Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc., 1610 East Reynolds Street, Laramie, Wyoming, 82072, USA
| | - Giles Hooker
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853, USA
| | - Stephen P Ellner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853, USA
| | - Peter B Adler
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, 5230 Old Main Hill, Logan, Utah, 84322, USA
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8
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Liu W, Pennings SC. Variation in synchrony of production among species, sites, and intertidal zones in coastal marshes. Ecology 2020; 102:e03278. [PMID: 33370500 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2020] [Revised: 09/21/2020] [Accepted: 10/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Spatially synchronous population dynamics are important to ecosystem functioning and have several potential causes. By looking at synchrony in plant productivity over 18 yr across two elevations in three types of coastal marsh habitat dominated by different clonal plant species in Georgia, USA, we were able to explore the importance of plant species and different habitat conditions to synchrony. Synchrony was highest when comparing within a plant species and within a marsh zone, and decreased across species, with increasing distance, and with increasing elevational differences. Abiotic conditions that were measured at individual sites (water column temperature and salinity) also showed high synchrony among sites, and in one case (salinity) decreased with increasing distance among sites. The Moran effect (synchronous abiotic conditions among sites) is the most plausible explanation for our findings. Decreased synchrony between creekbank and mid-marsh zones, and among habitat types (tidal fresh, brackish, and salt marsh) was likely due in part to different exposure to abiotic conditions and in part to variation in sensitivity of dominant plant species to these abiotic conditions. We found no evidence for asynchrony among species, sites or zones, indicating that one habitat type or zone will not compensate for poor production in another during years with low productivity; however, tidal fresh, brackish. and salt marsh sites were also not highly synchronous with each other, which will moderate productivity variation among years at the landscape level due to the portfolio effect. We identified the creekbank zone as more sensitive than the mid-marsh to abiotic variation and therefore as a priority for monitoring and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenwen Liu
- Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems, College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Fujian, 361102, China.,Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Houston, Houston, Texas, 77204, USA
| | - Steven C Pennings
- Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Houston, Houston, Texas, 77204, USA
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9
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Korevaar H, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. Tensor decomposition for infectious disease incidence data. Methods Ecol Evol 2020; 11:1690-1700. [PMID: 33381294 PMCID: PMC7756762 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Many demographic and ecological processes generate seasonal and other periodicities. Seasonality in infectious disease transmission can result from climatic forces such as temperature and humidity; variation in contact rates as a result of migration or school calendar; or temporary surges in birth rates. Seasonal drivers of acute immunizing infections can also drive longer-term fluctuations.Tensor decomposition has been used in many disciplines to uncover dominant trends in multi-dimensional data. We introduce tensors as a novel method for decomposing oscillatory infectious disease time series.We illustrate the reliability of the method by applying it to simulated data. We then present decompositions of measles data from England and Wales. This paper leverages simulations as well as much-studied data to illustrate the power of tensor decomposition to uncover dominant epidemic signals as well as variation in space and time. We then use tensor decomposition to uncover new findings and demonstrate the potential power of the method for disease incidence data. In particular, we are able to distinguish between annual and biennial signals across locations and shifts in these signals over time.Tensor decomposition is able to isolate variation in disease seasonality as a result of variation in demographic rates. The method allows us to discern variation in the strength of such signals by space and population size. Tensors provide an opportunity for a concise approach to uncovering heterogeneity in disease transmission across space and time in large datasets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Korevaar
- Office of Population ResearchPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNYUSA
| | - C. Jessica Metcalf
- Office of Population ResearchPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNYUSA
- Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNYUSA
| | - Bryan T. Grenfell
- Office of Population ResearchPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNYUSA
- Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNYUSA
- Fogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA
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10
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Strauss AT, Henning JA, Porath‐Krause A, Asmus AL, Shaw AK, Borer ET, Seabloom EW. Vector demography, dispersal and the spread of disease: Experimental epidemics under elevated resource supply. Funct Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alexander T. Strauss
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Jeremiah A. Henning
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Anita Porath‐Krause
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Ashley L. Asmus
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Allison K. Shaw
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Elizabeth T. Borer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | - Eric W. Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
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11
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Korevaar H, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. Structure, space and size: competing drivers of variation in urban and rural measles transmission. J R Soc Interface 2020; 17:20200010. [PMID: 32634366 PMCID: PMC7423418 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
A key concern in public health is whether disparities exist between urban and rural areas. One dimension of potential variation is the transmission of infectious diseases. In addition to potential differences between urban and rural local dynamics, the question of whether urban and rural areas participate equally in national dynamics remains unanswered. Specifically, urban and rural areas may diverge in local transmission as well as spatial connectivity, and thus risk for receiving imported cases. Finally, the potential confounding relationship of spatial proximity with size and urban/rural district type has not been addressed by previous research. It is rare to have sufficient data to explore these questions thoroughly. We use exhaustive weekly case reports of measles in 954 urban and 468 rural districts of the UK (1944–1965) to compare both local disease dynamics as well as regional transmission. We employ the time-series susceptible–infected–recovered model to estimate disease transmission, epidemic severity, seasonality and import dependence. Congruent with past results, we observe a clear dependence on population size for the majority of these measures. We use a matched-pair strategy to compare proximate urban and rural districts and control for possible spatial confounders. This analytical strategy reveals a modest difference between urban and rural areas. Rural areas tend to be characterized by more frequent, smaller outbreaks compared to urban counterparts. The magnitude of the difference is slight and the results primarily reinforce the importance of population size, both in terms of local and regional transmission. In sum, urban and rural areas demonstrate remarkable epidemiological similarity in this recent UK context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Korevaar
- Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica Metcalf
- Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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12
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Büntgen U, Liebhold A, Nievergelt D, Wermelinger B, Roques A, Reinig F, Krusic PJ, Piermattei A, Egli S, Cherubini P, Esper J. Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks. Oecologia 2020; 192:543-552. [PMID: 31919693 PMCID: PMC7002459 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8–9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulf Büntgen
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK.
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe), Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Andrew Liebhold
- USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Forestry and Wood Sciences, 165 21, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Daniel Nievergelt
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Beat Wermelinger
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Alain Roques
- INRA, UR633 Unité de Recherche de Zoologie Forestière, Orléans, 45075, France
| | - Frederick Reinig
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099, Mainz, Germany
| | - Paul J Krusic
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
| | - Alma Piermattei
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
| | - Simon Egli
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Paolo Cherubini
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Jan Esper
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099, Mainz, Germany
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13
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Wildemeersch M, Franklin O, Seidl R, Rogelj J, Moorthy I, Thurner S. Modelling the multi-scaled nature of pest outbreaks. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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14
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Vindstad OPL, Jepsen JU, Yoccoz NG, Bjørnstad ON, Mesquita MDS, Ims RA. Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages. J Anim Ecol 2019; 88:1134-1145. [PMID: 30737772 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Accepted: 12/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jane Uhd Jepsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Nigel Gilles Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø - The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ottar N Bjørnstad
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - Michel D S Mesquita
- Future Solutions, Mosterhamn, Norway.,Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Rolf Anker Ims
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø - The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
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15
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Severns PM, Sackett KE, Farber DH, Mundt CC. Consequences of Long-Distance Dispersal for Epidemic Spread: Patterns, Scaling, and Mitigation. PLANT DISEASE 2019; 103:177-191. [PMID: 30592698 DOI: 10.1094/pdis-03-18-0505-fe] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Epidemics caused by long-distance dispersed pathogens result in some of the most explosive and difficult to control diseases of both plants and animals (including humans). Yet the factors influencing disease spread, especially in the early stages of the outbreak, are not well-understood. We present scaling relationships, of potentially widespread relevance, that were developed from more than 15 years of field and in silico single focus studies of wheat stripe rust spread. These relationships emerged as a consequence of accounting for a greater proportion of the fat-tailed disease gradient that may be frequently underestimated in disease spread studies. Leptokurtic dispersal gradients (highly peaked and fat-tailed) are relatively common in nature and they can be represented by power law functions. Power law scale invariance properties generate patterns that repeat over multiple spatial scales, suggesting important and predictable scaling relationships between disease levels during the first generation of disease outbreaks and subsequent epidemic spread. Experimental wheat stripe rust outbreaks and disease spread simulations support theoretical scaling relationships from power law properties and suggest that relatively straightforward scaling approximations may be useful for projecting the spread of disease caused by long-distance dispersed pathogens. Our results suggest that, when actual dispersal/disease data are lacking, an inverse power law with exponent = 2 may provide a reasonable approximation for modeling disease spread. Furthermore, our experiments and simulations strongly suggest that early control treatments with small spatial extent are likely to be more effective at suppressing an outbreak caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen than would delayed treatment of a larger area. The scaling relationships we detail and the associated consequences for disease control may be broadly applicable to plant and animal pathogens characterized by non-exponentially bound, fat-tailed dispersal gradients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul M Severns
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
| | - Kathryn E Sackett
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
| | - Daniel H Farber
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
| | - Christopher C Mundt
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
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16
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Backmann P, Grimm V, Jetschke G, Lin Y, Vos M, Baldwin IT, van Dam NM. Delayed Chemical Defense: Timely Expulsion of Herbivores Can Reduce Competition with Neighboring Plants. Am Nat 2019; 193:125-139. [PMID: 30624112 DOI: 10.1086/700577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Time delays in plant responses to insect herbivory are thought to be the principal disadvantage of induced over constitutive defenses, suggesting that there should be strong selection for rapid responses. However, observed time delays between the onset of herbivory and defense induction vary considerably among plants. We postulate that strong competition with conspecifics is an important codeterminant of the cost-benefit balance for induced responses. There may be a benefit to the plant to delay mounting a full defense response until the herbivore larvae are mobile enough to leave and large enough to cause severe damage to neighboring plants. Thus, delayed responses could reduce the competitive pressure on the focal plant. To explore this idea, we developed an individual-based model using data from wild tobacco, Nicotiana attenuata, and its specialized herbivore, Manduca sexta. Chemical defense was assumed to be costly in terms of reduced plant growth. We used a genetic algorithm with the plant's delay time as a heritable trait. A stationary distribution of delay times emerged, which under high herbivore densities peaked at higher values, which were related to the time larvae need to grow large enough to severely damage neighboring plants. Plants may thus tip the competitive balance by expelling insect herbivores to move to adjacent plants when the herbivores are most damaging. Thus, herbivores become part of a plant's strategy for reducing competition and increasing fitness.
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17
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Arbellay E, Jarvis I, Chavardès RD, Daniels LD, Stoffel M. Tree-ring proxies of larch bud moth defoliation: latewood width and blue intensity are more precise than tree-ring width. TREE PHYSIOLOGY 2018; 38:1237-1245. [PMID: 29788327 DOI: 10.1093/treephys/tpy057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2017] [Accepted: 04/27/2018] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Reconstructions of defoliation by larch bud moth (LBM, Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) based on European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) tree rings have unraveled outbreak patterns over exceptional temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we conducted tree-ring analyses on 105 increment cores of European larch from the Valais Alps, Switzerland. The well-documented history of LBM outbreaks in Valais provided a solid baseline for evaluating the LBM defoliation signal in multiple tree-ring parameters. First, we used tree-ring width measurements along with regional records of LBM outbreaks to reconstruct the occurrence of these events at two sites within the Swiss Alps. Second, we measured earlywood width, latewood width and blue intensity, and compared these parameters with tree-ring width to assess the capacity of each proxy to detect LBM defoliation. A total of six LBM outbreaks were reconstructed for the two sites between AD 1850 and 2000. Growth suppression induced by LBM was, on average, highest in latewood width (59%), followed by total ring width (54%), earlywood width (51%) and blue intensity (26%). We show that latewood width and blue intensity can improve the temporal accuracy of LBM outbreak reconstructions, as both proxies systematically detected LBM defoliation in the first year it occurred, as well as the differentiation between defoliation and non-defoliation years. This study introduces blue intensity as a promising new proxy of insect defoliation and encourages its use in conjunction with latewood width.
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Affiliation(s)
- Estelle Arbellay
- Tree-Ring Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ingrid Jarvis
- Tree-Ring Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Raphaël D Chavardès
- Tree-Ring Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Lori D Daniels
- Tree-Ring Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Markus Stoffel
- Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Boulevard Carl-Vogt 66, Geneva, Switzerland
- Dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des Maraîchers 13, Geneva, Switzerland
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18
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Nenzén HK, Filotas E, Peres-Neto P, Gravel D. Epidemiological landscape models reproduce cyclic insect outbreaks. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2017.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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19
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Barraquand F, Louca S, Abbott KC, Cobbold CA, Cordoleani F, DeAngelis DL, Elderd BD, Fox JW, Greenwood P, Hilker FM, Murray DL, Stieha CR, Taylor RA, Vitense K, Wolkowicz GS, Tyson RC. Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles. Ecol Lett 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Frédéric Barraquand
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology University of Tromsø Tromsø Norway
- Integrative and Theoretical Ecology Chair, LabEx COTE University of Bordeaux Pessac France
| | - Stilianos Louca
- Institute of Applied Mathematics University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
| | - Karen C. Abbott
- Department of Biology Case Western Reserve University Cleveland OH USA
| | | | - Flora Cordoleani
- Institute of Marine Science University of California Santa Cruz Santa Cruz CA USA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center Santa Cruz CA USA
| | | | - Bret D. Elderd
- Department of Biological Sciences Lousiana State University Baton Rouge LA USA
| | - Jeremy W. Fox
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Calgary Calgary ABCanada
| | | | - Frank M. Hilker
- Institute of Environmental Systems Research, School of Mathematics/Computer Science Osnabrück University Osnabrück Germany
| | - Dennis L. Murray
- Integrative Wildlife Conservation Lab Trent University Peterborough ONCanada
| | - Christopher R. Stieha
- Department of Biology Case Western Reserve University Cleveland OH USA
- Department of Entomology Cornell University Ithaca NY USA
| | - Rachel A. Taylor
- Department of Integrative Biology University of South Florida Tampa FLUSA
| | - Kelsey Vitense
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
| | - Gail S.K. Wolkowicz
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada
| | - Rebecca C. Tyson
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of British Columbia Okanagan Kelowna BC Canada
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20
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21
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Turkia T, Selonen V, Brommer JE. Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel ( Sciurus vulgaris) sex ratios. J Mammal 2016. [DOI: 10.1093/jmammal/gyw004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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22
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Defriez EJ, Sheppard LW, Reid PC, Reuman DC. Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:2069-2080. [PMID: 26810148 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2015] [Revised: 11/30/2015] [Accepted: 12/22/2015] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma J Defriez
- Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Lawrence W Sheppard
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66047, USA
| | - Philip C Reid
- The Laboratory, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK
- Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
- The Laboratory, Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Daniel C Reuman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66047, USA
- Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Ave, New York, NY, 10065, USA
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23
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Boulinier T, Kada S, Ponchon A, Dupraz M, Dietrich M, Gamble A, Bourret V, Duriez O, Bazire R, Tornos J, Tveraa T, Chambert T, Garnier R, McCoy KD. Migration, Prospecting, Dispersal? What Host Movement Matters for Infectious Agent Circulation? Integr Comp Biol 2016; 56:330-42. [PMID: 27252195 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icw015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Spatial disease ecology is emerging as a new field that requires the integration of complementary approaches to address how the distribution and movements of hosts and parasites may condition the dynamics of their interactions. In this context, migration, the seasonal movement of animals to different zones of their distribution, is assumed to play a key role in the broad scale circulation of parasites and pathogens. Nevertheless, migration is not the only type of host movement that can influence the spatial ecology, evolution, and epidemiology of infectious diseases. Dispersal, the movement of individuals between the location where they were born or bred to a location where they breed, has attracted attention as another important type of movement for the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases. Host dispersal has notably been identified as a key factor for the evolution of host-parasite interactions as it implies gene flow among local host populations and thus can alter patterns of coevolution with infectious agents across spatial scales. However, not all movements between host populations lead to dispersal per se. One type of host movement that has been neglected, but that may also play a role in parasite spread is prospecting, i.e., movements targeted at selecting and securing new habitat for future breeding. Prospecting movements, which have been studied in detail in certain social species, could result in the dispersal of infectious agents among different host populations without necessarily involving host dispersal. In this article, we outline how these various types of host movements might influence the circulation of infectious disease agents and discuss methodological approaches that could be used to assess their importance. We specifically focus on examples from work on colonial seabirds, ticks, and tick-borne infectious agents. These are convenient biological models because they are strongly spatially structured and involve relatively simple communities of interacting species. Overall, this review emphasizes that explicit consideration of the behavioral and population ecology of hosts and parasites is required to disentangle the relative roles of different types of movement for the spread of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Boulinier
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Sarah Kada
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Aurore Ponchon
- Eco-ethology Research Group, ISPA, 1149-041 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Marlène Dupraz
- MIVEGEC, CNRS-IRD-Université Montpellier, UMR 5190, 34394 Montpellier, France
| | - Muriel Dietrich
- Department of Microbiology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
| | - Amandine Gamble
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Vincent Bourret
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Olivier Duriez
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Romain Bazire
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Jérémy Tornos
- *UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS - Université Montpellier - Université P. Valéry - EPHE, 34293 Montpellier, France
| | - Torkild Tveraa
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Center, 9296 Tromsoe, Norway
| | - Thierry Chambert
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, PA 16802, USA
| | - Romain Garnier
- **Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
| | - Karen D McCoy
- MIVEGEC, CNRS-IRD-Université Montpellier, UMR 5190, 34394 Montpellier, France
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24
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Jankovic M, Petrovskii S, Banerjee M. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models. Theor Popul Biol 2016; 110:51-62. [PMID: 27154920 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2015] [Revised: 04/11/2016] [Accepted: 04/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masha Jankovic
- Department of Mathematics, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | | | - Malay Banerjee
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur, India
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25
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Landry J, Parrott L. Could the lateral transfer of nutrients by outbreaking insects lead to consequential landscape‐scale effects? Ecosphere 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jean‐Sébastien Landry
- Department of Geography and Global Environmental and Climate Change CentreMcGill UniversityMontréal Québec H3A 0B9 Canada
| | - Lael Parrott
- Earth & Environmental Sciences and BiologyIrving K. Barber School of Arts and SciencesUniversity of British Columbia Kelowna British Columbia V1V 1V7 Canada
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26
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Gouveia AR, Bjørnstad ON, Tkadlec E. Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed. Ecol Evol 2015; 6:212-8. [PMID: 26811786 PMCID: PMC4716503 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2015] [Revised: 11/01/2015] [Accepted: 11/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial synchrony of population fluctuations is ubiquitous in nature. Theoretical models suggest that correlated environmental stochasticity, dispersal, and trophic interactions are important promoters of synchrony in nature to leave characteristic signatures of distance‐dependent decays in synchrony. Recent refinements of this theory have clarified how distance‐decay curves may steepen if local dynamics are governed by different density‐dependent feedbacks and how synchrony should vary regionally if the importance and correlation of environmental stochasticity is location‐specific. We analysed spatiotemporal data for the common vole, Microtus arvalis from 49 districts in the Czech Republic to examine the pattern of population synchrony between 2000 and 2014. By extending the nonparametric covariation function, we develop a quantitative method that allows a dissection of the effects of distance and additional variables such as altitude on synchrony. To examine the pattern of local synchrony, we apply the noncentered local‐indicators of spatial association (ncLISA) which highlights areas with different degrees of synchrony than expected by the region‐wide average. Additionally, in order to understand the obtained pattern of local spatial correlations, we have regressed LISA results against the proportion of forest in each district. The common vole abundances fluctuated strongly and exhibited synchronous dynamics with the typical tendency for a decline of synchrony with increasing distance but, not with altitude. The correlation between the neighbor districts decreases as the proportion of forest increases. Forested areas are suboptimum habitats and are strongly avoided by common voles. The investigation of spatiotemporal dynamics in animal populations is a key issue in ecology. Although the majority of studies are focused on testing hypotheses about which mechanisms are involved in shaping this dynamics it is crucial to understand the sources of variation involved in order to understand the underlying processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana R Gouveia
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc Šlechtitelů 27 77146 Olomouc Czech Republic
| | - Ottar N Bjørnstad
- Departement of Entomology and the Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics the Pennsylvania State University State College Pennsylvania 16802
| | - Emil Tkadlec
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc Šlechtitelů 2777146 Olomouc Czech Republic; Institute of Vertebrate Biology Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Květná 8603 65 Brno Czech Republic
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27
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Noble AE, Machta J, Hastings A. Emergent long-range synchronization of oscillating ecological populations without external forcing described by Ising universality. Nat Commun 2015; 6:6664. [PMID: 25851364 PMCID: PMC4403441 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2014] [Accepted: 02/17/2015] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the synchronization of oscillations across space is fundamentally important to many scientific disciplines. In ecology, long-range synchronization of oscillations in spatial populations may elevate extinction risk and signal an impending catastrophe. The prevailing assumption is that synchronization on distances longer than the dispersal scale can only be due to environmental correlation (the Moran effect). In contrast, we show how long-range synchronization can emerge over distances much longer than the length scales of either dispersal or environmental correlation. In particular, we demonstrate that the transition from incoherence to long-range synchronization of two-cycle oscillations in noisy spatial population models is described by the Ising universality class of statistical physics. This result shows, in contrast to all previous work, how the Ising critical transition can emerge directly from the dynamics of ecological populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew E. Noble
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA
- Department of Physics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA
| | - Jonathan Machta
- Department of Physics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA
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28
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Riolo MA, Rohani P, Hunter MD. Local variation in plant quality influences large-scale population dynamics. OIKOS 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Maria A. Riolo
- Mathematics, Univ. of Michigan; 4852 East Hall 530 Church Street Ann Arbor MI 48105 USA
| | - Pejman Rohani
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Univ. of Michigan; Ann Arbor MI 48109-1048 USA
| | - Mark D. Hunter
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Univ. of Michigan; Ann Arbor MI 48109-1048 USA
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29
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James PMA, Cooke B, Brunet BMT, Lumley LM, Sperling FAH, Fortin MJ, Quinn VS, Sturtevant BR. Life-stage differences in spatial genetic structure in an irruptive forest insect: implications for dispersal and spatial synchrony. Mol Ecol 2015; 24:296-309. [PMID: 25439007 DOI: 10.1111/mec.13025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2014] [Revised: 11/23/2014] [Accepted: 11/26/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Dispersal determines the flux of individuals, energy and information and is therefore a key determinant of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Yet, it remains difficult to quantify its importance relative to other factors. This is particularly true in cyclic populations in which demography, drift and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal variability in genetic structure. Improved understanding of how dispersal influences spatial genetic structure is needed to disentangle the multiple processes that give rise to spatial synchrony in irruptive species. In this study, we examined spatial genetic structure in an economically important irruptive forest insect, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) to better characterize how dispersal, demography and ecological context interact to influence spatial synchrony in a localized outbreak. We characterized spatial variation in microsatellite allele frequencies using 231 individuals and seven geographic locations. We show that (i) gene flow among populations is likely very high (Fst ≈ 0); (ii) despite an overall low level of genetic structure, important differences exist between adult (moth) and juvenile (larvae) life stages; and (iii) the localized outbreak is the likely source of moths captured elsewhere in our study area. This study demonstrates the potential of using molecular methods to distinguish residents from migrants and for understanding how dispersal contributes to spatial synchronization. In irruptive populations, the strength of genetic structure depends on the timing of data collection (e.g. trough vs. peak), location and dispersal. Taking into account this ecological context allows us to make more general characterizations of how dispersal can affect spatial synchrony in irruptive populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick M A James
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, CP 6128 Succursale Centre-Ville, Université de Montréal, Pavillon Marie-Victorin, Montréal, QC, Canada, H3C 3J7
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30
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Phenology and density-dependent dispersal predict patterns of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) impact. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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31
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Myers JH, Cory JS. Population Cycles in Forest Lepidoptera Revisited. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2013. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Judith H. Myers
- Department of Zoology, and Biodiversity Research Center, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4;
| | - Jenny S. Cory
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6;
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32
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Berthier K, Piry S, Cosson JF, Giraudoux P, Foltête JC, Defaut R, Truchetet D, Lambin X. Dispersal, landscape and travelling waves in cyclic vole populations. Ecol Lett 2013; 17:53-64. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2013] [Revised: 08/26/2013] [Accepted: 10/02/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Karine Berthier
- INRA; UMR CBGP 1062; Campus international de Baillarguet; CS 30016 F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez Cedex France
- INRA; UR 407, Pathologie Végétale; Domaine Saint-Maurice, PB 94 84143 Montfavet Cedex France
| | - Sylvain Piry
- INRA; UMR CBGP 1062; Campus international de Baillarguet; CS 30016 F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez Cedex France
| | - Jean-François Cosson
- INRA; UMR CBGP 1062; Campus international de Baillarguet; CS 30016 F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez Cedex France
| | - Patrick Giraudoux
- Chrono-environment Department; CNRS UMR6249; INRA; Université de Franche-Comté; Place Leclerc 25030 Besançon Cedex France
- Institut Universitaire de France; Paris France
| | | | - Régis Defaut
- FREDON; Franche-Comté; BP 989 25022 Besançon Cedex France
| | - Denis Truchetet
- DRAF-SRPV Franche-Comté; 191, rue Belfort 25043 Besançon Cedex France
| | - Xavier Lambin
- School of Biological Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology building, Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
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33
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35
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Mundt CC, Wallace LD, Allen TW, Hollier CA, Kemerait RC, Sikora EJ. Initial epidemic area is strongly associated with the yearly extent of soybean rust spread in North America. Biol Invasions 2013; 15:1431-1438. [PMID: 23853520 PMCID: PMC3706196 DOI: 10.1007/s10530-012-0381-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Hosts of soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) are sensitive to low temperatures, limiting this obligate parasite in the United States to overwintering sites in a restricted area along the Gulf Coast. This temperature sensitivity of soybean rust hosts allowed us to study spatial spread of epidemic invasions over similar territory for seven sequential years, 2005-2011. The epidemic front expanded slowly from early April through July, with the majority of expansion occurring from August through November. There was a 7.4-fold range of final epidemic extent (0.4 to 3.0 million km2) from the year of smallest final disease extent (2011) to that of the largest (2007). The final epidemic area of each year was regressed against epidemic areas recorded at one-week intervals to determine the association of final epidemic extent with current epidemic extent. Coefficients of determination for these regressions varied between 0.44 to 0.62 during April and May. The correlation coefficients varied between 0.70 and 0.96 from early June through October, and then increased monotonically to 1.0 by year's end. Thus, the spatial extent of disease when the epidemics began rapid expansion may have been a crucial contributor to subsequent spread of soybean rust. Our analyses used presence/absence data at the county level to evaluate the spread of the epidemic front only; the subsequent local intensification of disease could be strongly influenced by other factors, including weather.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher C. Mundt
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, 2082 Cordley Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-2902, USA
| | - LaRae D. Wallace
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, 2082 Cordley Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-2902, USA
| | - Tom W. Allen
- Delta Research and Extension Center, 82 Stoneville Road, P.O. Box 197, Stoneville, MS 38776, USA
| | - Clayton A. Hollier
- Department of Plant Pathology and Crop Physiology, Louisiana State University AgCenter, 302 Life Sciences Building, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
| | - Robert C. Kemerait
- Department of Plant Pathology, Horticulture Building, 2360 Rainwater Road, Tifton, GA 31793-5766, USA
| | - Edward J. Sikora
- Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, 153 ALFA Agricultural Building, 902 South Donahue Drive, Auburn University, AL 36849-5624, USA
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36
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Martínez-Padilla J, Redpath SM, Zeineddine M, Mougeot F. Insights into population ecology from long-term studies of red grouseLagopus lagopus scoticus. J Anim Ecol 2013; 83:85-98. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2013] [Accepted: 04/30/2013] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jesus Martínez-Padilla
- Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales; Department of Evolutionary Biology; José Guitérrez Abascal 2 28006 Madrid Spain
| | - Steve M. Redpath
- ACES; Department of Biological Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building Tillydrone Av. Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Mohammed Zeineddine
- ACES; Department of Biological Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building Tillydrone Av. Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - François Mougeot
- EEZA-CSIC; La Cañada de San Urbano; 04120 Almeria Spain
- IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM); Ronda de Toledo s/n 13005 Ciuada Real Spain
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37
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Sherratt JA. Generation of periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations by hostile boundaries. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2013. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2012.0756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Many recent datasets on cyclic populations reveal spatial patterns with the form of periodic travelling waves (wavetrains). Mathematical modelling has identified a number of potential causes of this spatial organization, one of which is a hostile habitat boundary. In this paper, the author investigates the member of the periodic travelling wave family selected by such a boundary in models of reaction–diffusion type. Using a predator–prey model as a case study, the author presents numerical evidence that the wave generated by a hostile (zero-Dirichlet) boundary condition is the same as that generated by fixing the population densities at their coexistence steady-state levels. The author then presents analysis showing that the two waves are the same, in general, for oscillatory reaction–diffusion models with scalar diffusion close to Hopf bifurcation. This calculation yields a general formula for the amplitude, speed and wavelength of these waves. By combining this formula with established results on periodic travelling wave stability, the author presents a division of parameter space into regions in which a hostile boundary will generate periodic travelling waves, spatio-temporal disorder or a mixture of the two.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A. Sherratt
- Department of Mathematics and Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK
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38
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Denny M, Benedetti-Cecchi L. Scaling Up in Ecology: Mechanistic Approaches. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2012. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102710-145103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Ecologists have long grappled with the problem of scaling up from tractable, small-scale observations and experiments to the prediction of large-scale patterns. Although there are multiple approaches to this formidable task, there is a common underpinning in the formulation, testing, and use of mechanistic response functions to describe how phenomena interact across scales. Here, we review the principles of response functions to illustrate how they provide a means to guide research, extrapolate beyond measured data, and simplify our conceptual grasp of reality. We illustrate these principles with examples of mechanistic approaches ranging from explorations of the ecological niche, random walks, and macrophysiology to theories dealing with scale transition, self-organization, and the prediction of extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Denny
- Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California 93950
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39
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Lindström T, Sisson SA, Håkansson N, Bergman KO, Wennergren U. A spectral and Bayesian approach for analysis of fluctuations and synchrony in ecological datasets. Methods Ecol Evol 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00240.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tom Lindström
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology; Linköping University; 581 83 Linköping Sweden
- School of Biological Sciences; University of Sydney; Sydney NSW 2006 Australia
| | - Scott A. Sisson
- School of Mathematics and Statistics; University of New South Wales; Sydney 2052 NSW Australia
| | - Nina Håkansson
- Systems Biology Research Centre; Skövde University; Box 408 541 28 Skövde Sweden
| | - Karl-Olof Bergman
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology; Linköping University; 581 83 Linköping Sweden
| | - Uno Wennergren
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology; Linköping University; 581 83 Linköping Sweden
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40
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Tenow O, Nilssen AC, Bylund H, Pettersson R, Battisti A, Bohn U, Caroulle F, Ciornei C, Csóka G, Delb H, De Prins W, Glavendekić M, Gninenko YI, Hrašovec B, Matošević D, Meshkova V, Moraal L, Netoiu C, Pajares J, Rubtsov V, Tomescu R, Utkina I. Geometrid outbreak waves travel across Europe. J Anim Ecol 2012; 82:84-95. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02023.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2011] [Accepted: 07/03/2012] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Olle Tenow
- Department of Ecology; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; SE-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Arne C. Nilssen
- Tromsø University Museum, University of Tromsø; NO-9037 Tromsø Norway
| | - Helena Bylund
- Department of Ecology; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; SE-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Rickard Pettersson
- Department of Earth Sciences; Uppsala University; Villavägen 16 SE-752 36 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Andrea Battisti
- Universita di Padova, DAFNAE-Entomologia, Agripolis; Viale dell′Universita 16 35020 Legnaro PD Italia
| | - Udo Bohn
- Alterra, Wageningen UR, Centre Ecosystems; PO Box 47 NL-6700 AA Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Fabien Caroulle
- DGFAR Sous-Direction de la Forêt et du Bois; Département de la santé des forêts; 19 Avenue du Maine 75732 Paris Cedex 15 France
| | - Constantin Ciornei
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - György Csóka
- Department of Forest Protection; Forest Research Institute; PO Box 2 3232 Mátrafüred Hungary
| | - Horst Delb
- Department of Forest Protection; Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg; Wonnhaldenstrasse 4 D-79100 Freiburg i. Br Germany
| | - Willy De Prins
- Zoological Museum of Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam; Plantage Middenlaan 64 NL-1018 DH Amsterdam The Netherlands
| | - Milka Glavendekić
- Faculty of Forestry; University of Belgrade; Kneza Višeslava 1 11030 Belgrade Serbia
| | - Yuri I. Gninenko
- All-Russian Research Institute for Silviculture and Mechanization of Forestry; Pushkino Moscow region Russia
| | - Boris Hrašovec
- Faculty of Forestry; University of Zagreb; PO Box 422 10002 Zagreb Croatia
| | - Dinka Matošević
- Department for Forest Protection and Game Management; Croatian Forest Research Institute; Cvjetno naselje 41 10450 Jastrebarsko Croatia
| | - Valentyna Meshkova
- Laboratory of Forest Protection; Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest Melioration; Pushkinska 86 61024 Kharkov Ukraine
| | - Leen Moraal
- Alterra, Wageningen UR, Centre Ecosystems; PO Box 47 NL-6700 AA Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Constantin Netoiu
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - Juan Pajares
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute, University of Valladolid; Avd. Madrid s/n 34071 Palencia Spain
| | - Vasily Rubtsov
- Institute of Forestry Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Uspenskoe Moscow region 143030 Russia
| | - Romica Tomescu
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - Irina Utkina
- Institute of Forestry Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Uspenskoe Moscow region 143030 Russia
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41
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Rinaldi S. Recurrent and synchronous insect pest outbreaks in forests. Theor Popul Biol 2012; 81:1-8. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2010] [Revised: 07/14/2011] [Accepted: 08/06/2011] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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42
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Mundt CC, Sackett KE, Wallace LD. Landscape heterogeneity and disease spread: experimental approaches with a plant pathogen. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2011; 21:321-328. [PMID: 21563564 DOI: 10.1890/10-1004.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Understanding landscape effects on disease spread can contribute to the prediction and control of epidemic invasions. We conducted large-scale field experiments with wheat stripe rust, which is caused by a wind-dispersed rust fungus. Three landscape heterogeneity variables were altered: host frequency (mixtures of susceptible and resistant plants), host patch size (different plot sizes), and size of initial disease focus (attained by artificial inoculation). Assessments of disease prevalence at different distances from the disease foci were used to quantify effects of landscape variables. We expected that a low frequency of susceptible hosts, small host patch sizes, and small initial disease foci would reduce secondary inoculum levels and thus suppress disease spread. Low host frequency and small initial disease foci greatly reduced epidemic spread. We did not detect an effect of host patch size on disease spread, though artificial inoculations did not allow us to measure the potential for small patches to escape infection under conditions of random deposition of initial inoculum. Our results suggest that, for diseases epidemiologically similar to wheat stripe rust, epidemic invasions may be suppressed by decreasing host frequency, limiting the size of initial outbreak foci, and applying control measures soon after epidemic establishment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher C Mundt
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331-2902, USA.
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43
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Abstract
Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles. Herein, analysis of perhaps the most extensive spatiotemporal dataset of population dynamics and reconstructed Alpine-wide LBM defoliation records reveals elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters that coincide with temperature fluctuations over two centuries. A population model supports the hypothesis that temperature-mediated shifting of the optimal elevation for LBM population growth is the mechanism for elevational epicenter changes. Increases in the optimal elevation for population growth over the warming period of the last century to near the distributional limit of host larch likely dampened population cycles, thereby causing the collapse of a millennium-long outbreak cycle. The threshold-like change in LBM outbreak pattern highlights how interacting species with differential response rates to climate change can result in dramatic ecological changes.
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44
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Hagen SB, Jepsen JU, Schott T, Ims RA. Spatially mismatched trophic dynamics: cyclically outbreaking geometrids and their larval parasitoids. Biol Lett 2010; 6:566-9. [PMID: 20106859 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2009.1002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
For trophic interactions to generate population cycles and complex spatio-temporal patterns, like travelling waves, the spatial dynamics must be matched across trophic levels. Here, we propose a spatial methodological approach for detecting such spatial match-mismatch and apply it to geometrid moths and their larval parasitoids in northern Norway, where outbreak cycles and travelling waves occur. We found clear evidence of spatial mismatch, suggesting that the spatially patterned moth cycles in this system are probably ruled by trophic interactions involving other agents than larval parasitoids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Snorre B Hagen
- Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd, Svanvik, Norway.
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45
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Does landscape composition alter the spatiotemporal distribution of the pine processionary moth in a pine plantation forest? POPUL ECOL 2010. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-010-0227-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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46
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Ecological processes can synchronize marine population dynamics over continental scales. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2010; 107:8281-6. [PMID: 20404141 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0914588107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Determining the relative importance of local and regional processes for the distribution of population abundance is a fundamental but contentious issue in ecology. In marine systems, classical theory holds that the influence of demographic processes and dispersal is confined to local populations whereas the environment controls regional patterns of abundance. Here, we use spatial synchrony to compare the distribution of population abundance of the dominant mussel Mytilus californianus observed along the West Coast of the United States to that predicted by dynamical models undergoing different dispersal and environmental treatments to infer the relative influence of local and regional processes. We reveal synchronized fluctuations in the abundance of mussel populations across a whole continent despite limited larval dispersal and strong environmental forcing. We show that dispersal among neighboring populations interacts with local demographic processes to generate characteristic patterns of spatial synchrony that can govern the dynamic distribution of mussel abundance over 1,800 km of coastline. Our study emphasizes the importance of dispersal and local dynamics for the distribution of abundance at the continental scale. It further highlights potential limits to the use of "climate envelope" models for predicting the response of large-scale ecosystems to global climate change.
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47
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Sieber M, Malchow H, Petrovskii SV. Noise-induced suppression of periodic travelling waves in oscillatory reaction–diffusion systems. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2010. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2009.0611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecological field data suggest that some species show periodic changes in abundance over time and in a specific spatial direction. Periodic travelling waves as solutions to reaction–diffusion equations have helped to identify possible scenarios, by which such spatio-temporal patterns may arise. In this paper, such solutions are tested for their robustness against an irregular temporal forcing, since most natural populations can be expected to be subject to erratic fluctuations imposed by the environment. It is found that small environmental noise is able to suppress periodic travelling waves in stochastic variants of oscillatory reaction–diffusion systems. Irregular spatio-temporal oscillations, however, appear to be more robust and persist under the same stochastic forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Sieber
- Institute of Environmental Systems Research, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Osnabrück, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany
| | - Horst Malchow
- Institute of Environmental Systems Research, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Osnabrück, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany
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48
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Bjørnstad ON, Robinet C, Liebhold AM. Geographic variation in North American gypsy moth cycles: subharmonics, generalist predators, and spatial coupling. Ecology 2010; 91:106-18. [DOI: 10.1890/08-1246.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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49
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50
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Gravel D, Beaudet M, Messier C. Large-scale synchrony of gap dynamics and the distribution of understory tree species in maple–beech forests. Oecologia 2009; 162:153-61. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-009-1426-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2008] [Accepted: 07/17/2009] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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