Abrupt climate change

The 4.2 ka event is not remarkable in the context of Holocene climate variability

The "4.2 ka event" is a commonly described abrupt climate excursion that occurred about 4200 years ago. However, the extent to which this event is coherent across regional and larger scales is unclear. To objectively assess climate excursions in the Holocene we compile 1142 paleoclimate datasets that span all continents and oceans and include a wide variety of archive and proxy types. We analyze these data to determine the timing, significance and spatial imprint of climate excursions using an objective method that quantifies local, regional and global significance. Site-level excursions in temperature and hydroclimate are common throughout the Holocene, but significant global-scale excursions are rare. The most prominent excursion occurred 8200 years ago, when cold and dry conditions formed a large, significant excursion centered in the North Atlantic. We find additional significant excursions between 1600 and 1000 years ago, which agree with tree-ring data and annual-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, adding confidence and context to our findings. In contrast, although some datasets show significant climate excursions 4200 years ago, they do not occur in large, coherent spatial regions. Consequently, like most other periods in the Holocene, the "4.2 ka event" is not a globally significant climate excursion.

The impact of China's carbon emissions trading policy on corporate investment expenditures: Evidence from carbon-intensive industries

The carbon emissions trading (CET) policy internalises the cost of carbon emission reductions borne by companies, which will affect the companies' investment and management decisions. From a micro perspective, this paper analyzes the impact on company investment expenditure and its transmission mechanism by implementing the CET policy. Based on panel data of China's A-share listed companies from eight carbon-intensive industries spanning 2010 to 2020, the time-varying difference-in-difference model and its extended model are used to evaluate the impact of the policy in the pilot areas. The results show that: first, based on the cost effect and legality theories, CET policy can reduce the investment expenditure of the companies by 71.95%. Second, CET policy reduces corporate investment expenditures by increasing corporate debt financing costs. When debt financing costs increase by 120.25%, the investment expenditures will reduce by 2.56% indirectly while the intermediary effect of equity financing costs is not significant. Finally, with the implementation of CET policy, the inhibitory effect on corporate investment expenditures has gradually increased. CET policy has a more significant inhibitory effect on investment expenditures of nonstate-owned companies and small-scale companies. The results have passed the robustness test and provide evidence for the policy-maker to balance microeconomic entity development and carbon reduction, and for companies to make optimization investment and financing decisions in response to policy shocks effectively.

Modular tipping points: How local network structure impacts critical transitions in networked spin systems

Critical transitions describe a phenomenon where a system abruptly shifts from one stable state to an alternative, often detrimental, stable state. Understanding and possibly preventing the occurrence of a critical transition is thus highly relevant to many ecological, sociological, and physical systems. In this context, it has been shown that the underlying network structure of a system heavily impacts the transition behavior of that system. In this paper, we study a crucial but often overlooked aspect in critical transitions: the modularity of the system's underlying network topology. In particular, we investigate how the transition behavior of a networked system changes as we alter the local network structure of the system through controlled changes of the degree assortativity. We observe that systems with high modularity undergo cascading transitions, while systems with low modularity undergo more unified transitions. We also observe that networked systems that consist of nodes with varying degrees of connectivity tend to transition earlier in response to changes in a control parameter than one would anticipate based solely on the average degree of that network. However, in rare cases, such as when there is both low modularity and high degree disassortativity, the transition behavior aligns with what we would expected given the network's average degree. Results are confirmed for a diverse set of degree distributions including stylized two-degree networks, uniform, Poisson, and power-law degree distributions. On the basis of these results, we argue that to understand critical transitions in networked systems, they must be understood in terms of individual system components and their roles within the network structure.

Network percolation provides early warnings of abrupt changes in coupled oscillatory systems: An explanatory analysis

Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. They have been used to get insights into the dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In particular, percolation properties of correlation networks have been employed to identify early warning signals of critical transitions. In this work, we further investigate the corresponding potential of percolation measures for the anticipation of different types of sudden shifts in the state of coupled irregularly oscillating systems. As a paradigmatic model system, we study the dynamics of a ring of diffusively coupled noisy FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators and show that, when the oscillators are nearly completely synchronized, the percolation-based precursors successfully provide very early warnings of the rapid switches between the two states of the system. We clarify the mechanisms behind the percolation transition by separating global trends given by the mean-field behavior from the synchronization of individual stochastic fluctuations. We then apply the same methodology to real-world data of sea surface temperature anomalies during different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This leads to a better understanding of the factors that make percolation precursors effective as early warning indicators of incipient El Niño and La Niña events.

Tipping points in neurodegeneration

In Alzheimer's disease (AD), Aβ deposits form slowly, several decades before further pathological events trigger neurodegeneration and dementia. However, a substantial proportion of affected individuals remains non-demented despite AD pathology, raising questions about the underlying factors that determine the transition to clinical disease. Here, we emphasize the critical function of resilience and resistance factors, which we extend beyond the concept of cognitive reserve to include the glial, immune, and vascular system. We review the evidence and use the metaphor of "tipping points" to illustrate how gradually forming AD neuropathology in the preclinical stage can transition to dementia once adaptive functions of the glial, immune, and vascular system are lost and self-reinforcing pathological cascades are unleashed. Thus, we propose an expanded framework for pathomechanistic research that focuses on tipping points and non-neuronal resilience mechanisms, which may represent previously untapped therapeutic targets in preclinical AD.

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these 'delayed negative feedbacks' may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large-scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food-web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large-scale transitions under global environmental change.

Amine-Assisted Simultaneous CO2 Absorption and Mineral Carbonation: Effect of Different Categories of Amines

The hybrid technology of CO₂ capture-mineral carbonation (CCMC) using alkaline streams has emerged in recent years. However, thus far, there has been no comprehensive study revealing the mechanisms of the simultaneous CCMC process regarding the choice of amine types and sensitivity of parameters. Combining with the analysis of multistep reaction mechanisms for different amines, we investigated a representative from each category in CCMC using calcium chloride to simulate the alkaline resource after leaching, i.e., primary (ethanolamine, MEA), secondary (diisopropanolamine, DIPA), tertiary (diethylethanolamine, DEAE), and triamine (diethylenetriamine, DETA), respectively. In the adsorption step, increasing the amine concentration beyond 2 mol/L reduced the absorption efficiency of DEAE due to the hydration mechanism, motivating a rational choice of concentration. In CCMC sections, when the amine concentration increased, only DEAE exhibited an increased carbonation efficiency of up to 100%, while DETA showed the lowest conversion. The carbonation of DEAE demonstrated the least sensitivity to temperature. The crystal transformation experiments suggested that over time, the produced vaterite could completely transform to calcite or aragonite, except those from DETA. Thus, with rationally chosen conditions, DEAE was demonstrated ideal for CCMC. These findings obtained in this work provided a theoretical foundation for designing future CCMC processes.

Deterrence through punishment can resolve collective risk dilemmas in carbon emission games

Collective risk social dilemmas are at the heart of the most pressing global challenges we are facing today, including climate change mitigation and the overuse of natural resources. Previous research has framed this problem as a public goods game (PGG), where a dilemma arises between short-term interests and long-term sustainability. In the PGG, subjects are placed in groups and asked to choose between cooperation and defection, while keeping in mind their personal interests as well as the commons. Here, we explore how and to what extent the costly punishment of defectors is successful in enforcing cooperation by means of human experiments. We show that an apparent irrational underestimation of the risk of being punished plays an important role, and that for sufficiently high punishment fines, this vanishes and the threat of deterrence suffices to preserve the commons. Interestingly, however, we find that high fines not only avert freeriders, but they also demotivate some of the most generous altruists. As a consequence, the tragedy of the commons is predominantly averted due to cooperators that contribute only their "fair share" to the common pool. We also find that larger groups require larger fines for the deterrence of punishment to have the desired prosocial effect.

Riding out the storm: depleted fat stores and elevated hematocrit in a small bodied endotherm exposed to severe weather

In the mid-continental grasslands of North America, climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Increasingly severe storms and prolonged periods of elevated temperatures can impose challenges that adversely affect an individual's condition and, ultimately, survival. However, despite mounting evidence that extreme weather events, such as heavy rain storms, can impose short-term physiological challenges, we know little regarding the putative costs of such weather events. To determine the consequences of extreme weather for small endotherms, we tested predictions of the relationships between both severe precipitation events and wet bulb temperatures (an index that combines temperature and humidity) prior to capture with body composition and hematocrit of grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) caught during the breeding season at the Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas, USA, between 2014 and 2016. We measured each individual's fat mass, lean mass and total body water using quantitative magnetic resonance in addition to their hematocrit. Individuals exposed to storms in the 24 hours prior to capture had less fat reserves, more lean mass, more water and higher hematocrit than those exposed to moderate weather conditions. Furthermore, individuals stored more fat if they experienced high wet bulb temperatures in the week prior to capture. Overall, the analysis of these data indicate that extreme weather events take a physiological toll on small endotherms, and individuals may be forced to deplete fat stores and increase erythropoiesis to meet the physiological demands associated with surviving a storm. Elucidating the potential strategies used to cope with severe weather may enable us to understand the energetic consequences of increasingly severe weather in a changing world.

Temperature effects on microbial dissolved organic matter metabolisms: Linking size fractions, fluorescent compositions, and functional groups

This study elucidated the compositional and structural variations of size fractions of microbially-induced dissolved organic matter (DOM) caused by short-term temperature changes (5 to 35 °C), taking riverine DOM as an example. A simple and efficient method combining fractionation-[parallel factor analysis and two-dimensional Fourier-transform infrared correlation spectroscopy (PARAFAC-2D FTIR COS)]-correlation was introduced to link fluorescent DOM components and their structures in terms of surface functional groups. Results indicated that the higher temperature stimulated the decomposition of aromatics (sizes decreased from 10 kDa-0.22 μm to <10 kDa) and the transformation of proteins to humics (with sizes <0.22 μm); while both the higher and lower temperatures inhibited the utilization of larger-sized DOM (>0.22 μm, especially the non-fluorescence part) and synthesis of larger-sized microbial-derived proteins and humics (>0.22 μm), which may result in more smaller-sized (<10 kDa) and refractory aromatics transported from rivers to oceans in the warming future. However, the structure-determined DOM behaviors could be less affected by temperature since the fluorescent proteins and humics revealed similar functional group compositions, such as carboxyl, hydroxyl, carbonyl/aldehyde, carboxylic anhydride, and carboxamide groups. These findings have strong implications for DOM biogeochemistry in future temperature-shock scenarios. The proposed method will support in-depth analyses of structure-regulated processes from a mechanistic perspective.

Confronting the Carbon-Footprint Challenge of Blockchain

The distributed consensus mechanism is the backbone of the rapidly developing blockchain network. Blockchain platforms consume vast amounts of electricity based on the current consensus mechanism of Proof-of-Work (PoW). Here, we point out a different consensus mechanism named Proof-of-Stake (PoS) that can eliminate the extensive energy consumption of the current PoW-based blockchain. We comprehensively elucidate the current and projected energy consumption and carbon footprint of the PoW- and PoS-based Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchain platforms. The model of energy consumption of PoS-based Ethereum blockchain can lead the way toward the prediction of other PoS-based blockchain technologies in the future. With the widespread adoption of blockchain technology, if the current PoW mechanism continues to be employed, the carbon footprint of Bitcoin and Ethereum will push the global temperature above 1.5 °C in this century. However, a PoS-based blockchain can reduce the carbon footprint by 99% compared to the PoW mechanism. The small amount of carbon footprint from PoS-based blockchain could make blockchain an attractive technology in a carbon-constrained future. The study sheds light on the urgency of developing the PoS mechanism to solve the current sustainability problem of blockchain.

Potential abiotic stress targets for modern genetic manipulation

Research into crop yield and resilience has underpinned global food security, evident in yields tripling in the past 5 decades. The challenges that global agriculture now faces are not just to feed 10+ billion people within a generation, but to do so under a harsher, more variable, and less predictable climate, and in many cases with less water, more expensive inputs, and declining soil quality. The challenges of climate change are not simply to breed for a "hotter drier climate," but to enable resilience to floods and droughts and frosts and heat waves, possibly even within a single growing season. How well we prepare for the coming decades of climate variability will depend on our ability to modify current practices, innovate with novel breeding methods, and communicate and work with farming communities to ensure viability and profitability. Here we define how future climates will impact farming systems and growing seasons, thereby identifying the traits and practices needed and including exemplars being implemented and developed. Critically, this review will also consider societal perspectives and public engagement about emerging technologies for climate resilience, with participatory approaches presented as the best approach.

Intensified modulation of the Pacific north equatorial current bifurcation by the southern annular mode since the early 1990s

Long-term reanalysis data were used to assess inter-decadal to decadal modulations of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation in the Pacific after the early 1990s. The wind stress curl anomaly (WSCA) in the region of 10° N-15° N and 160° E-170° E (C-BOX) had been found to excite Rossby waves and control NEC bifurcation along the Philippine coast. Our analysis revealed that the WSCA in the C-BOX has been remotely modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) since the early 1990s. It is shown that the SAM shifted to its positive phase at this transition and began strongly impacting the WSCA in the C-BOX and the NEC bifurcation. During the positive SAM phase after the early 1990s, strong climate variability occurred in the tropical to subtropical area of the North Pacific, with a clear footprint connected to the Antarctic region. Consistent with that finding, we determined that during the positive SAM phase, a dipole sea surface temperature pattern was generated in the South Pacific; this induced an atmospheric Rossby wave train in upper-level wind shear that propagated northward to the North Pacific. Such effects further enhanced downward motion and divergence at the surface, intensifying the easterlies in the equatorial area and the anticyclonic WSCA in the C-BOX. The anticyclonic WSCA in the C-BOX substantially excited downwelling oceanic Rossby waves at the surface, inducing an equatorward trend of NEC bifurcation after the early 1990s.

Interpreting spatially explicit variation in dietary proxies through species distribution modeling reveals foraging preferences of mammoth (Mammuthus) and American mastodon (Mammut americanum)

Introduction

The end Pleistocene was a time of considerable ecological upheaval. Recent work has explored the megafauna extinction’s role in altering ecosystem processes. Analyses of functional traits withing communities reveal hidden consequences of the megafauna extinction beyond declines in taxonomic diversity. Functional diversity analyses offer new insight into our understanding of past ecosystems and may even inform future rewilding efforts. However, the utility of functional diversity may be hampered by the use of discrete, taxon-level functional traits, such as dietary categories, that mask variation in functional diversity over space and time.

Methods

We present an approach in which species distribution modeling, in Maxent, provides context for interpreting variation in two widely used proxies for diet among fossil taxa: stable isotope analysis and dental microwear texture analysis. We apply this approach to two ecologically distinct taxa, the American mastodon (Mammut americanum) and mammoths (Mammuthus) and investigate their resource use over space and time from the last glacial maximum to the end Pleistocene (25–11.7 thousand years before present).

Results

Mammoth dietary behavior varies by context across their geographic distribution, despite possessing evolutionary adaptations that facilitate grazing. Mammoths exhibit a preference for grazing where species distribution modeling predicts the highest likelihood of occurrence but engage in more mixed-feeding outside of core likelihood areas. In contrast, dietary preferences for mastodon are less resolved and our analyses were unable to identify significant differences in diet across their distribution.

Discussion

The ecological roles of some species are context specific and need to be critically evaluated when planning for management of reintroductions or introducing novel species to restore lost ecological function.

Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions

We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople's climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople's holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.

Critical transitions in degree mixed networks: A discovery of forbidden tipping regions in networked spin systems

Critical transitions can be conceptualized as abrupt shifts in the state of a system typically induced by changes in the system's critical parameter. They have been observed in a variety of systems across many scientific disciplines including physics, ecology, and social science. Because critical transitions are important to such a diverse set of systems it is crucial to understand what parts of a system drive and shape the transition. The underlying network structure plays an important role in this regard. In this paper, we investigate how changes in a network's degree sequence impact the resilience of a networked system. We find that critical transitions in degree mixed networks occur in general sooner than in their degree homogeneous counterparts of equal average degree. This relationship can be expressed with parabolic curves that describe how the tipping point changes when the nodes of an initially homogeneous degree network composed only of nodes with degree k1 are replaced by nodes of a different degree k2. These curves mark clear tipping boundaries for a given degree mixed network and thus allow the identification of possible tipping intersections and forbidden tipping regions when comparing networks with different degree sequences.

Climatic threshold of crop production and climate change adaptation: A case of winter wheat production in China

Global climate change has adversely affected agricultural production. Identifying the climatic threshold is critical to judge the impact and risk of climate change and proactively adapt agriculture. However, the climatic threshold of agriculture, especially crop production, remains unclear. To bridge this gap, taking winter wheat production from 1978 to 2017 in China as an example, this study clarified the definition of the climatic threshold of crop production and calculated it based on a mechanism model considering multiple factors and their synergies. The results showed that (1) the climate presented a warmer and wetter trend from 1978 to 2017, especially after 1996. (2) Water, fertilizer, and winter wheat yields increased significantly (22.4 mm/decade, 96.4 kg/ha·decade, and 674.2 kg/ha·decade, respectively, p &lt; 0.01). (3) The average optimal temperature and water thresholds for winter wheat were 7.3°C and 569 mm, respectively. The temperature rise was unfavorable for winter wheat production, and the water supply increase was beneficial to winter wheat production. (4) Increasing irrigation and fertilization could raise the optimal temperature threshold and adapt to climate warming in most provinces, while Shandong and Shaanxi both needed to reduce fertilization. We established a generalized method for calculating the climatic threshold of agricultural production and found that multifactor synergistic effects could influence the climatic threshold. The climatic threshold of winter wheat changed with different adaptation levels. However, considering the limitations in resource availability and environmental capacity, increasing the use efficiency of water and fertilizer is more important for adapting to climate change in the future.

Land use change and climate dynamics in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Land use and climate dynamics have a pronounced impact on water resources, biodiversity, land degradation, and productivity at all scales. Thus, in this study, we present the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use change and climate aiming to provide a scientific evidence about gains and losses in major land use categories and associated drivers and significancy and homogeneity of climate change. To this end, Landsat images and historical climate data have been used to determine the dynamics. In addition, population census data and land use policy have been considered to assess the potential drivers of land use change. The spatio-temporal land use dynamics have been evaluated using transition matrix and dynamics index. Likewise, shifts in the climate data were analyzed using change point analysis and three homogenous climate zones have been identified using principal component analysis. The results show that, from 1989 to 2019, the areal percentage of agricultural land increased by 27.5%, settlement by 0.8%, and barren land 0.4% while the natural vegetation, wetland, water body, and grass land decreased by 24.5%, 1.6%, 0.5%, and 2.1%, respectively. The land use dynamics have been stronger in the first decade of the study period. An abrupt shift of climate has occurred in the 1980s. In the last four decades, rainfall shows a not significant decreasing trend. However, a significant increasing trend has been observed for temperature. Rapid population growth, agricultural expansion policy, and climate variability have been identified as the underlying drivers of land use dynamics.

Greenland Ice Core Record of Last Glacial Dust Sources and Atmospheric Circulation

Abrupt and large-scale climate changes have occurred repeatedly and within decades during the last glaciation. These events, where dramatic warming occurs over decades, are well represented in both Greenland ice core mineral dust and temperature records, suggesting a causal link. However, the feedbacks between atmospheric dust and climate change during these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are poorly known and the processes driving changes in atmospheric dust emission and transport remain elusive. Constraining dust provenance is key to resolving these gaps. Here, we present a multi-technique analysis of Greenland dust provenance using novel and established, source diagnostic isotopic tracers as well as results from a regional climate model including dust cycle simulations. We show that the existing dominant model for the provenance of Greenland dust as sourced from combined East Asian dust and Pacific volcanics is not supported. Rather, our clay mineralogical and Hf-Sr-Nd and D/H isotopic analyses from last glacial Greenland dust and an extensive range of Northern Hemisphere potential dust sources reveal three most likely scenarios (in order of probability): direct dust sourcing from the Taklimakan Desert in western China, direct sourcing from European glacial sources, or a mix of dust originating from Europe and North Africa. Furthermore, our regional climate modeling demonstrates the plausibility of European or mixed European/North African sources for the first time. We suggest that the origin of dust to Greenland is potentially more complex than previously recognized, demonstrating more uncertainty in our understanding dust climate feedbacks during abrupt events than previously understood.

The effect of thermal microenvironment in upper thermal tolerance plasticity in tropical tadpoles. Implications for vulnerability to climate warming

Current climate change is generating accelerated increase in extreme heat events and organismal plastic adjustments in upper thermal tolerances, (critical thermal maximum -CT_max ) are recognized as the quicker mitigating mechanisms. However, current research casts doubt on the actual mitigating role of thermal acclimation to face heat impacts, due to its low magnitude and weak environmental signal. Here, we examined these drawbacks by first estimating maximum extent of thermal acclimation by examining known sources of variation affecting CT_max expression, such as daily thermal fluctuation and heating rates. Second, we examined whether the magnitude and pattern of CT_max plasticity is dependent of the thermal environment by comparing the acclimation responses of six species of tropical amphibian tadpoles inhabiting thermally contrasting open and shade habitats and, finally, estimating their warming tolerances (WT = CT_max  - maximum temperatures) as estimator of heating risk. We found that plastic CT_max responses are improved in tadpoles exposed to fluctuating daily regimens. Slow heating rates implying longer duration assays determined a contrasting pattern in CT_max plastic expression, depending on species environment. Shade habitat species suffer a decline in CT_max whereas open habitat tadpoles greatly increase it, suggesting an adaptive differential ability of hot exposed species to quick hardening adjustments. Open habitat tadpoles although overall acclimate more than shade habitat species, cannot capitalize this beneficial increase in CT_max, because the maximum ambient temperatures are very close to their critical limits, and this increase may not be large enough to reduce acute heat stress under the ongoing global warming.

Association between Lake Sediment Nutrients and Climate Change, Human Activities: A Time-Series Analysis

Climate change and human activities are closely linked with the nutrient accumulation in sediments, but the role of influence factors and the driving mechanisms are unclear. Here, by using the generalized additive model (GAM), we investigated the contributions and driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities on TON, TN, and TP accumulation in sediments of typical lakes in the Huai River basin (Nansi Lake and Hongze Lake) from 1988 to 2018. The impacts of factors, such as air temperature (AT), real GDP per capita (GDP), population density (PD), crop sown area (CSA), artificial impervious area (AIA), and domestic sewage discharge (DSD) were considered in this study. The results of the multivariate GAM showed that the sediment variables were significantly affected by climate change in Nansi Lake, but not in Hongze Lake. AT and DSD contributed the most to the variation of sediment TOC in Nansi Lake, while the most critical factors affecting TN and TP were AT, PD and DSD. PD and CSA showed strong ability to explain the change of TOC in Hongze Lake, while CSA and DSD showed strong ability to explain the variations of TN and TP. The results show that the selected optimal multivariate GAM can well quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on nutrient enrichment in lake sediments. Effective recommendations are provided for decision-makers in developing water quality management plans to prevent eutrophication outbreaks in lake waters by targeting and controlling key factors.

Relationship of the Warming of Red Sea Surface Water over 140 Years with External Heat Elements

Using historic data, variations in the sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface air temperature, and air–sea heat flux of the Red Sea and its adjacent seas over 140 years (1876–2019) as well as correlations of these variations were statistically analyzed. The results show that the SST of the Red Sea increased at a mean rate of 0.043 °C/decade in these years with an accelerated rate in recent decades, and the SST anomalies of the sea had significant positive correlations and high synchronisms with those of adjacent seas as well as air temperature anomalies. In this period, the Red Sea lost more heat to the air via evaporation due to water warming and gained more heat from the Gulf of Aden. The analysis revealed that the temperature rise in the Red Sea surface water was directly caused by the horizontal heat input from the upper warming water of the Gulf of Aden under the circumstance of global ocean warming, rather than by the rise in local air temperature. However, in recent decades, the accelerated rise in air temperature over the sea has decreased the sensible heat flux, which might contribute to the Red Sea warming.

Diversification in the Rosales is influenced by dispersal, geographic range size, and pre-existing species richness

PREMISE

Biodiversity results from origination and extinction, justifying interest in identifying traits that influence this balance. Traits implicated in the success or failure of lineages include dispersal, colonization ability, and geographic range size. We investigated the impact of dispersal and range size on contemporary diversity in the Rosales.

METHODS

We used the multiple-state speciation and extinction (MuSSE) method to explore the effects on genus-level diversification of two genus-level traits (geographic range size and within-genus proclivity to speciate) and two species traits (seed dispersal and growth habit) and the multiple hidden-state speciation and extinction (MuHiSSE) method for species-level associations. Finally, we conducted a PGLS (phylogenetic least-squares) analysis to distinguish between speciation within genera versus origination of new genera.

RESULTS

At the species level, animal dispersal enhances diversification rate in both woody and herbaceous lineages, while woody lineages without animal dispersal have higher extinction rates than speciation rates. At the genus level, herbaceous taxa have positive diversification rates regardless of other character states. Diversification rate variation is also explained by two interactions: (1) a three-way interaction between large geographic range, animal-mediated dispersal, and high within-genus species richness, whereby genera possessing all three traits have high diversification rates, and (2) a four-way interaction by which the three-way interaction is stronger in woody genera than in herbaceous genera.

CONCLUSIONS

Colonization ability may underlie the relationship between dispersal type and range size and may influence past diversification rates by decreasing extinction rates during late Cenozoic climate volatility. Thus, colonization ability could be used to predict future extinction risk to aid conservation.

How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People's Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People's Perceptions of Climate Change

The way people perceive climate change scientific evidence becomes relevant in motivating or demotivating their climate actions. Climate change is one of the most publicized topics globally, and media has become an important “validator” of science. Therefore, science has become more exposed to criticism. Even when most scientists, decision makers, and laypeople agree on the robust evidence of climate science, there is still room for disagreement. The main aim of this paper is to reveal how climate change knowledge generated by science is perceived by the laypeople and to observe a possible gap between them. The study answered two questions “What are the main contrasting climate change topics in the scientific literature?” and “What are Romanian and Belgian participants’ perceptions of these topics?”. A qualitative approach was chosen for data analysis, using Quirkos software. The present cross-country study showed commonalities and differences of views between the two groups of participants regarding six climate change topics. Divergent perceptions among Belgians and Romanians came out, for example, within the theme “The heroes, villains, and victims of climate change.” Thus, whereas Belgians considered all people, including themselves, responsible for climate change, Romanians blamed mostly others, such as big companies, governments, and consumers. Additionally, both groups stated that climate change existed, but contrary to Belgians, Romanians voiced that climate change was often used as an exaggerated and politicized topic. The analysis revealed that perceptions about climate change, its causes, and its impacts are social constructs with a high degree of variability between and within the two national groups. The study argued that the cleavages between scientific literature and people’s views were blind spots on which a participatory approach was needed to better cope with climate change challenges.

Fixed asset changes with carbon regulation: The cases of China

Carbon regulation might threaten corporate competitiveness and thus guide their production and investment behaviours. Using the difference-in-differences (DID) model, we analyze the impact of China's carbon emission trading (CET) pilots on the fixed asset and its investment. The main findings are as follows: (1) CET reduces the fixed assets value and investment of regulated companies. (2) The decline in the fixed asset and its investment represents more significantly in the economically developed areas, pilots with grandfathering allocation, energy and manufacturing industries, and state-owned enterprises. (3) Potential influence channel estimation indicates that the fixed-asset investment decreases through investment diversion, rather than operation transfer. (4) CET reduces the over-investment in the fixed assets of regulated companies and improves their fixed-asset investment efficiency. This study supplements the literature on carbon regulation and corporate behaviours, potentially contributing to the next stage of climate governance and global decarbonization.

Combined Utilization of Construction and Demolition Waste and Propylene Fiber in Cement-Stabilized Soil

Construction and demolition (C&D) waste has become a research hotspot due to the need for environmental sustainability and strength enhancement of cementitious materials. However, wider applications of C&D waste are limited, as its non-homogeneous surface nature limits its workability. This research evaluated the feasible utilization of C&D waste as aggregates in polypropylene-fiber-reinforced cement-stabilized soil (CSS) under sulfate-alkali activation. CSS specimens incorporated Portland cement and C&D waste in 10%, 20%, and 30% proportions. Also, polypropylene fiber after alkali activation by sodium sulfate (at 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.8% dosing level) was defined as 1%, 2%, and 4%. Strength enhancement was examined through unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and flexural strength tests at 7, 14 and 28 days. Test results indicated that mechanical properties showed significant improvement with increasing levels of Portland cement and sodium sulfate, while the improvement dropped after excessive addition of C&D waste and polypropylene fiber. Optimal proportioning was determined as 30%, 4%, 20%, and 0.8% for Portland cement, polypropylene fiber, C&D waste, and sodium sulfate, respectively. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis attributed the enhancement to hydration product (ettringite) formation, bridging effect and increased particle friction. Additionally, the decrease in amplification was ascribed to the destruction of interface transition-zone (ITZ) strength, resulting in premature failure.

Stochastic sensitivity analysis and early warning signals of critical transitions in a tri-stable prey-predator system with noise

Near a tipping point, small changes in a certain parameter cause an irreversible shift in the behavior of a system, called critical transitions. Critical transitions can be observed in a variety of complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecology to financial markets, climate change, molecular bio-systems, health, and disease. As critical transitions can occur suddenly and are hard to manage, it is important to predict their occurrence. Although it is very tough to predict such critical transitions, various recent works suggest that generic early warning signals can detect the situation when systems approach a critical point. The most important indicator that predicts the risk of an upcoming critical transition is critical slowing down (CSD). CSD indicates a slow recovery rate from external perturbations of the stable state close to a bifurcation point. In this contribution, we study a two dimensional prey-predator model. Without any noise, the prey-predator model shows bistability and tri-stability due to the Allee effect in predators. We explore the critical transitions when external noise is added to the prey-predator system. We investigate early warning indicators, e.g., recovery rate, lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and skewness to predict the critical transition. We explore the confidence domain method using the stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) technique near a stable equilibrium point to find a threshold value of noise intensity for a transition. The SSF technique in a two stage transition through confidence ellipse is described. We also show that the possibility of a transition to the predator-free state is independent of initial conditions. Our result may serve as a paradigm to understand and predict the critical transition in a two dimensional system.

The impact of poaching and regime switching on the dynamics of single-species model

It is widely recognized that the criminal act of poaching has brought tremendous damage to biodiversity. This paper employs a stochastic single-species model with regime switching to investigate the impact of poaching. We first carry out the survival analysis and obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence in mean of the single-species population. Then, we show that the model is positive recurrent by constructing suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical results. It is found that: (i) As the intensity of poaching increases, the odds of being at risk of extinction increases for the single-species population. (ii) The regime switching can suppress the extinction of the single-species population. (iii) The white noise is detrimental to the survival of the single-species population. (iv) Increasing the criminal cost of poaching and establishing animal sanctuaries are important ways to protect biodiversity.

Major population splits coincide with episodes of rapid climate change in a forest-dependent bird

Climate change influences population demography by altering patterns of gene flow and reproductive isolation. Direct mutation rates offer the possibility for accurate dating on the within-species level but are currently only available for a handful of vertebrate species. Here, we use the first directly estimated mutation rate in birds to study the evolutionary history of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Using a combination of demographic inference and species distribution modelling, we show that all major population splits in this forest-dependent system occurred during periods of increased climate instability and rapid global temperature change. We show that the divergent Spanish subspecies originated during the Eemian-Weichselian transition 115-104 thousand years ago (kya), and not during the last glacial maximum (26.5-19 kya), as previously suggested. The magnitude and rates of climate change during the glacial-interglacial transitions that preceded population splits in pied flycatchers were similar to, or exceeded, those predicted to occur in the course of the current, human-induced climate crisis. As such, our results provide a timely reminder of the strong impact that episodes of climate instability and rapid temperature changes can have on species' evolutionary trajectories, with important implications for the natural world in the Anthropocene.

Finite-time stability and optimal control of an impulsive stochastic reaction-diffusion vegetation-water system driven by Lévy process with time-varying delay

In this paper, a reaction-diffusion vegetation-water system with time-varying delay, impulse and Lévy jump is proposed. The existence and uniqueness of the positive solution are proved. Meanwhile, mainly through the principle of comparison, we obtain the sufficient conditions for finite-time stability which reflect the effect of time delay, diffusion, impulse, and noise. Besides, considering the planting, irrigation and other measures, we introduce control variable into the vegetation-water system. In order to save the costs of strategies, the optimal control is analyzed by using the minimum principle. Finally, numerical simulations are shown to illustrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs.

Systematic Exploration of the Synthetic Parameters for the Production of Dynamic VO2(M1)

Thermochromic dynamic cool materials present a reversible change of their properties wherein by increasing the temperature, the reflectance, conductivity, and transmittance change due to a reversible crystalline phase transition. In particular, vanadium (IV) dioxide shows a reversible phase transition, accompanied by a change in optical properties, from monoclinic VO₂(M1) to tetragonal VO₂(R). In this paper, we report on a systematic exploration of the parameters for the synthesis of vanadium dioxide VO₂(M1) via an easy, sustainable, reproducible, fast, scalable, and low-cost hydrothermal route without hazardous chemicals, followed by an annealing treatment. The metastable phase VO₂(B), obtained via a hydrothermal route, was converted into the stable VO₂(M1), which shows a metal–insulator transition (MIT) at 68 °C that is useful for different applications, from energy-efficient smart windows to dynamic concrete. Within this scenario, a further functionalization of the oxide nanostructures with tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS), characterized by an extreme alkaline environment, was carried out to ensure compatibility with the concrete matrix. Structural properties of the synthesized vanadium dioxides were investigated using temperature-dependent X-ray Diffraction analysis (XRD), while compositional and morphological properties were assessed using Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive X-ray Analysis (SEM-EDX), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) analysis was used to investigate the thermal behavior.

Mortality and morbidity of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with ambient environment in metropolitans in Taiwan

Background

This study investigated risks of mortality from and morbidity (emergency room visits (ERVs) and outpatient visits) of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with extreme temperatures, fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and ozone (O₃) by sex, and age, from 2005 to 2016 in 6 metropolitan cities in Taiwan.

Methods

The distributed lag non-linear model was employed to assess age (0–18, 19–39, 40–64, and 65 years and above), sex-cause-specific deaths, ERVs, and outpatient visits associated with extreme high (99^th percentile) and low (5^th percentile) temperatures and PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations at 90^th percentile. Random-effects meta-analysis was adopted to investigate cause-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the whole studied areas.

Results

Only the mortality risk of COPD in the elderly men was significantly associated with the extreme low temperatures. Exposure to the 90^th percentile PM_2.5 was associated with outpatient visits for asthma in 0–18 years old boys [RR = 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09–1.22)]. Meanwhile, significant elevation of ERVs of asthma for females aged 40–64 years was associated with exposure to ozone, with the highest RR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.05–1.39).

Conclusions

This study identified vulnerable subpopulations who were at risk to extreme events associated with ambient environments deserving further evaluation for adaptation.

Organic carbon burial is paced by a ~173-ka obliquity cycle in the middle to high latitudes

Earth's climate system is complex and inherently nonlinear, which can induce some extraneous cycles in paleoclimatic proxies at orbital time scales. The paleoenvironmental consequences of these extraneous cycles are debated owing to their complex origin. Here, we compile high-resolution datasets of total organic carbon (TOC) and stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C_org) datasets to investigate organic carbon burial processes in middle to high latitudes. Our results document a robust cyclicity of ~173 thousand years (ka) in both TOC and δ¹³C_org The ~173-ka obliquity-related forcing signal was amplified by internal climate feedbacks of the carbon cycle under different geographic and climate conditions, which control a series of sensitive climatic processes. In addition, our new and compiled records from multiple proxies confirm the presence of the obliquity amplitude modulation (AM) cycle during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic and indicate the usefulness of the ~173-ka cycle as geochronometer and for paleoclimatic interpretation.

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science.

Temperature variance portends and indicates the extent of abrupt climate shifts

Here, we show a discernable increase in temperature variance before a glacial termination by both the Ansari-Bradley test and the moving variance methods plus introduce the idea that there is a correlation between the peak variance and peak temperature increase. The behavior of temperature variance shows potential as a useful tool in analyzing time series data of Earth systems to assess the risk and extent of an upcoming abrupt climate transition.

Moisture-Enabled Electricity Generation: From Physics and Materials to Self-Powered Applications

The exploration of the utilization of sustainable, green energy represents one way in which it is possible to ameliorate the growing threat of the global environmental issues and the crisis in energy. Moisture, which is ubiquitous on Earth, contains a vast reservoir of low-grade energy in the form of gaseous water molecules and water droplets. It has now been found that a number of functionalized materials can generate electricity directly from their interaction with moisture. This suggests that electrical energy can be harvested from atmospheric moisture and enables the creation of a new range of self-powered devices. Herein, the basic mechanisms of moisture-induced electricity generation are discussed, the recent advances in materials (including carbon nanoparticles, graphene materials, metal oxide nanomaterials, biofibers, and polymers) for harvesting electrical energy from moisture are summarized, and some strategies for improving energy conversion efficiency and output power in these devices are provided. The potential applications of moisture electrical generators in self-powered electronics, healthcare, security, information storage, artificial intelligence, and Internet-of-things are also discussed. Some remaining challenges are also considered, together with a number of suggestions for potential new developments of this emerging technology.

Flood hazard delineation in an ungauged catchment by coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models with geospatial techniques-a case study of Koraiyar basin, Tiruchirappalli City, Tamil Nadu, India

Flooding in urban basins is a major natural catastrophe that leads to many causalities of life and property. The semi-urbanized Koraiyar River basin in Tamil Nadu has important cities like Tiruchirappalli and many towns located in it. The basin unfailingly experiences a flood event in almost every decade. It is anticipated that the basin will undergo rapid unplanned urbanization in the years to come. Such fast and erratic urban developments will only increase the risk of urban floods ultimately resulting in loss of human lives and extensive damages to property and infrastructure. The effects of urbanization can be quantified in the form of land use land cover (LULC) changes. The LULC change and its impacts on urban runoff are studied for the continuous 30-year present time period of (1986-2016) to reliably predict the anticipated impact in the future time period of (2026-2036). The analysis of land cover patterns over the years shows that urbanization is more prevalent in the northern part of the basin of the chosen study area when compared with the other regions. The extreme rainfall events that occurred in the past, and the probable future LULC changes, as well as their influence on urban runoff, are studied together in the current study. In order to minimize flood damages due to these changing land use conditions, certain preventive and protective measures have to be adopted at the earliest. There are some inevitable limitations while applying traditional measures in flood modeling studies. This investigative work considers a case study on the ungauged Koraiyar floodplains. The spatial scale risk assessment is assessed by coupling geographic information systems, remote sensing, hydrologic, and hydraulic modeling, to estimate the flood hazard probabilities in the Koraiyar basin. The maximum flood flow is generated from the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), the hydrologic model adopted in the present study. The maximum flood flow is given as input to the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), an effective hydraulic model that generates water depth and flood spread area in the basin. The flood depth and hazard maps are derived for 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100-year return periods. From the analysis, it is observed that the minimum flood depth is less than 1.2 m to a maximum of 4.7 m for the 100-year return period of past to predicted future years. The simulated results show that the maximum flood depth of 4.7 m with flood hazard area of 4.32% is identified as high hazard zones from the years 1986-2036, located in the center of the basin in Tiruchirappalli city. The very high hazard flood-affected zone in the Koraiyar basin during this period is about 198.85 km². It is noticed that the very low hazard zone occupies more area in the basin for the present and future simulations of flood hazard maps. The results show that the increase in peak runoff and runoff volume is marginally varied.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems

Fifty years ago, Willi Dansgaard and colleagues discovered several abrupt climate change events in Greenland during the last glacial period. Since then, several ice cores retrieved from the Greenland ice sheet have verified the existence of 25 abrupt climate warming events now known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These events are characterized by a rapid 10-15°C warming over a few decades followed by a stable period of centuries or millennia before a gradual return to full glacial conditions. Similar warming events have been identified in other paleo-archives in the Northern hemisphere. These findings triggered wide interest in abrupt climate change and its impact on biological diversity, but ambiguous definitions have constrained our ability to assign biotic responses to the different types of climate change. Here, we provide a coherent definition for different types of climatic change, including 'abrupt climate change', and a summary of past abrupt climate-change events. We then review biotic responses to abrupt climate change, from the genetic to the ecosystem level, and show that abrupt climatic and ecological changes have been instrumental in shaping biodiversity. We also identify open questions, such as what causes species resilience after an abrupt change. However, identifying causal relationships between past climate change and biological responses remains difficult. We need to formalize and unify the definition of abrupt change across disciplines and further investigate past abrupt climate change periods to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts on biodiversity and society wrought by human-made climate change.

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt 'regime shifts' have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large-scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high-latitude regions. However, there is very little high-resolution modelling of smaller-scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate-driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high-resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non-linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non-linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374-1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%-1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.

Yellow sea mediated segregation between North East Asian Dryophytes species

While comparatively few amphibian species have been described on the North East Asian mainland in the last decades, several species have been the subject of taxonomical debates in relation to the Yellow sea. Here, we sampled Dryophytes sp. treefrogs from the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China to clarify the status of this clade around the Yellow sea and determine the impact of sea level change on treefrogs' phylogenetic relationships. Based on genetics, call properties, adult morphology, tadpole morphology and niche modelling, we determined the segregated status species of D. suweonensis and D. immaculatus. We then proceeded to describe a new treefrog species, D. flaviventris sp. nov., from the central lowlands of the Republic of Korea. The new species is geographically segregated from D. suweonensis by the Chilgap mountain range and known to occur only in the area of Buyeo, Nonsan and Iksan in the Republic of Korea. While the Yellow sea is the principal element to the current isolation of the three clades, the paleorivers of the Yellow sea basin are likely to have been the major factor for the divergences within this clade. We recommend conducting rapid conservation assessments as these species are present on very narrow and declining ranges.

Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains

The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and the strong interaction of groundwater and surface water components (GW-SW). The objective of this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under climate change scenarios in order to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of water balance and GW-SW interactions for the upper creek basin of Del Azul, which is located in the center of the province of Buenos Aires. The simulation was carried out for a baseline scenario calibrated and validated for the period 2003-2015 and contrasted with two scenarios of the regional climate model CCSM4, RCP (4.5 and 8.5) simulated for the period 2020-2050. First, the annual and monthly anomalies of precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well as the discharge, head level and reserves of groundwater are studied. Then the spatio-temporal anomalies of the GW-SW interaction were analyzed and finally wet and dry periods by means of the standardized precipitation index and the annual water balance were studied. Simulation results show that climate change will significantly alter the spatio-temporal patterns of the GW-SW interaction as well as the water balance. These showed monthly, seasonal and annual variations. They show an increase in most of the components of the water balance towards the middle of the 21st century, except soil moisture. Regarding GW-SW interactions, the average annual discharge of the aquifer to the stream is expected to increase by 5% with RCP 4.5 while it will increase 24% with RCP 8.5. The recharge from the stream to the aquifer is expected to increase by 12% with RCP 4.5 while a decrease by 5% with RCP 8.5. Concerning the SPI related to the water balance for the period 2020-2050, alternations of both the time and the length of dry and wet periods are expected for the two scenarios, with RCP 4.5 low frequency of wet episodes, but with a greater severity and permanence in time in contrast to RCP 8.5 that presents less frequency in dry periods, but with high permanence and severity. Climate change could alter groundwater mainly through changes in the recharge, leading to modify groundwater levels and this will cause GW-SW flow to be reversed in some sectors of the stream by increasing or decreasing groundwater discharge into the stream.

Diversity of Growth Responses of Soil Saprobic Fungi to Recurring Heat Events

As a consequence of ongoing climate change, the frequency of extreme heat events is expected to increase. Recurring heat pulses may disrupt functions supported by soil microorganisms, thus affecting the entire ecosystem. However, most perturbation experiments only test effects of single heat events, and therefore it remains largely unknown how soil microorganisms react to repeated pulse events. Here we present data from a lab experiment exposing 32 filamentous fungi, originally isolated from the same soil, to sequential heat perturbations. Soil saprobic fungi isolates were exposed to one or two heat pulses: mild (35°C/2 h), strong (45°C/1 h), or both in sequence (35°C/2 h+45°C/1 h), and we assessed growth rate. Out of the 32 isolates 13 isolates showed an antagonistic response, 3 isolates a synergistic response and 16 isolates responded in an additive manner. Thus the 32 filamentous fungal isolates used here showed the full range of possible responses to an identical heat perturbation sequence. This diversity of responses could have consequences for soil-borne ecosystem services, highlighting the potential importance of fungal biodiversity in maintaining such services, particularly in the context of climate change.

Cradles of diversity are unlikely relics of regional climate stability

The stability of regional climates on millennial timescales is theorised to be a primary determinant of nearby diversification [1-5]. Using simulated patterns of past temperature change at monthly timescales [6], we show that the locations of climatically stable regions are likely to have varied considerably across and within millennia during glacial-interglacial cycles of the Late Quaternary. This result has important implications for the role of regional climate stability in theories of speciation, because long-term climate refugia are typically presumed to be 'cradles' of diversity (areas of high speciation) only if they remain stable across Milankovitch climate oscillations [1-5], which operate on multi-millennial time scales [7].

Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate

In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.