Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates

A Mosquito Parasite Is Locally Adapted to Its Host but Not Temperature

AbstractClimate change will alter interactions between parasites and their hosts. Warming may affect patterns of local adaptation, shifting the environment to favor the parasite or host and thus changing the prevalence of disease. We assessed local adaptation to hosts and temperature in the facultative ciliate parasite Lambornella clarki, which infects the western tree hole mosquito Aedes sierrensis. We conducted laboratory infection experiments with mosquito larvae and parasites collected from across a climate gradient, pairing sympatric or allopatric populations across three temperatures that were either matched or mismatched to the source environment. Lambornella clarki parasites were locally adapted to their hosts, with 2.6 times higher infection rates on sympatric populations compared with allopatric populations, but they were not locally adapted to temperature. Infection peaked at the intermediate temperature of 12.5°C, notably lower than the optimum temperature for free-living L. clarki growth, suggesting that the host's immune response can play a significant role in mediating the outcome of infection. Our results highlight the importance of host selective pressure on parasites, despite the impact of temperature on infection success.

Ecological Predictors of Organelle Genome Evolution: Phylogenetic Correlations with Taxonomically Broad, Sparse, Unsystematized Data

Comparative analysis of variables across phylogenetically linked observations can reveal mechanisms and insights in evolutionary biology. As the taxonomic breadth of the sample of interest increases, challenges of data sparsity, poor phylogenetic resolution, and complicated evolutionary dynamics emerge. Here, we investigate a cross-eukaryotic question where all these problems exist: which organismal ecology features are correlated with gene retention in mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA (organelle DNA or oDNA). Through a wide palette of synthetic control studies, we first characterize the specificity and sensitivity of a collection of parametric and non-parametric phylogenetic comparative approaches to identify relationships in the face of such sparse and awkward datasets. This analysis is not directly focused on oDNA, and so provides generalizable insights into comparative approaches with challenging data. We then combine and curate ecological data coupled to oDNA genome information across eukaryotes, including a new semi-automated approach for gathering data on organismal traits from less systematized open-access resources including encyclopedia articles on species and taxa. The curation process also involved resolving several issues with existing datasets, including enforcing the clade-specificity of several ecological features and fixing incorrect annotations. Combining this unique dataset with our benchmarked comparative approaches, we confirm support for several known links between organismal ecology and organelle gene retention, identify several previously unidentified relationships constituting possible ecological contributors to oDNA genome evolution, and provide support for a recently hypothesized link between environmental demand and oDNA retention. We, with caution, discuss the implications of these findings for organelle evolution and of this pipeline for broad comparative analyses in other fields.

Winter break? The effect of overwintering on immune gene expression in wood frogs

Among terrestrial ectotherms, hibernation is a common response to extreme cold temperatures and is associated with reduced physiological rates, including immunity. When winter wanes and temperatures increase, so too do vital rates of both ectothermic hosts and their parasites. Due to metabolic scaling, if parasite activity springs back faster than host immune functions then cold seasons and transitions between cold and warm seasons may represent periods of vulnerability for ectothermic hosts. Understanding host regulation of physiological rates at seasonal junctions is a first step toward identifying thermal mismatches between hosts and parasites. Here we show that immune gene expression is responsive to transitions into and out of the cold season in a winter-adapted amphibian, the wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), and that frogs experienced parasitism by at least two nematode species throughout the entirety of the cold season. In both splenic and skin tissues, we observed a decrease in immune gene expression going from fall to winter, observed no changes between winter and emergence from hibernation, and observed increases in immune gene expression after hibernation ended. At all timepoints, differentially expressed genes from spleens were more highly enriched for immune system processes than those from ventral skin, especially with respect to terms related to adaptive immune processes. Infection with nematode lungworms was also associated with upregulation of immune processes in the spleen. We suggest that rather than being a period of stagnation, during which physiological processes and infection potential cease, the cold season is immunologically dynamic, requiring coordinated regulation of many biological processes, and that the reemergence period may be an important time during which hosts invest in preparatory immunity.

Viromes of Antarctic fish resemble the diversity found at lower latitudes

Antarctica harbours some of the most isolated and extreme environments on Earth, concealing a largely unexplored and unique component of the global animal virosphere. To understand the diversity and evolutionary histories of viruses in these polar species, we determined the viromes of gill metatranscriptomes from 11 Antarctic fish species with 248 samples collected from the Ross Sea region spanning the Perciformes, Gadiformes, and Scorpaeniformes orders. The continent's shift southward and cooling temperatures >20 million years ago led to a reduction in biodiversity and subsequent radiation of some marine fauna, such as the notothenioid fishes. Despite decreased host species richness in polar regions, we revealed a surprisingly complex virome diversity in Ross Sea fish, with the types and numbers of viruses per host species and individuals sampled comparable to that of fish in warmer marine environments with higher host community diversity. We also observed a higher number of closely related viruses likely representing instances of recent and historic host-switching events among the Perciformes (all notothenioids) than in the Gadiformes, suggesting that rapid speciation events within this order generated closely related host species with few genetic barriers to cross-species transmission. Additionally, we identified novel genomic variation in an arenavirus with a split nucleoprotein sequence containing a stable helical structure, indicating potential adaptation of viral proteins to extreme temperatures. These findings enhance our understanding of virus evolution and virus-host interactions in response to environmental shifts, especially in less diverse ecosystems that are more vulnerable to the impacts of anthropogenic and climate changes.

Thermal ecology shapes disease outcomes of entomopathogenic fungi infecting warm-adapted insects

The thermal environment is a critical determinant of outcomes in host-pathogen interactions, yet the complexities of this relationship remain underexplored in many ecological systems. We examined the Thermal Mismatch Hypothesis (TMH) by measuring phenotypic variation in individual thermal performance profiles using a model system of two species of entomopathogenic fungi (EPF) that differ in their ecological niche, Metarhizium brunneum and M. flavoviride, and a warm-adapted model host, the mealworm Tenebrio molitor. We conducted experiments across ecologically relevant temperatures to determine the thermal performance curves for growth and virulence, measured as % survival, identify critical thresholds for these measures, and elucidate interactive host-pathogen effects. Both EPF species and the host exhibited a shared growth optima at 28 °C, while the host's growth response was moderated in sublethal pathogen infections that depended on fungus identity and temperature. However, variances in virulence patterns were different between pathogens. The fungus M. brunneum exhibited a broader optimal temperature range (23-28 °C) for virulence than M. flavoviride, which displayed a multiphasic virulence-temperature relationship with distinct peaks at 18 and 28 °C. Contrary to predictions of the TMH, both EPF displayed peak virulence at the host's optimal temperature (28 °C). The thermal profile for M. brunneum aligned more closely with that of T. molitor than that for M. flavoviride. Moreover, the individual thermal profile of M. flavoviride closely paralleled its virulence thermal profile, whereas the virulence thermal profile of M. brunneum did not track with its individual thermal performance. This suggests an indirect, midrange (23 °C) effect, where M. brunneum virulence exceeded growth. These findings suggest that the evolutionary histories and ecological adaptations of these EPF species have produced distinct thermal niches during the host interaction. This study contributes to our understanding of thermal ecology in host-pathogen interactions, underpinning the ecological and evolutionary factors that shape infection outcomes in entomopathogenic fungi. The study has ecological implications for insect population dynamics in the face of a changing climate, as well as practically for the use of these organisms in biological control.

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

The importance of teaching climate-health literacy in psychotherapeutic training and continuing education

Climate-health literacy is the ability to find, access, understand, interpret, evaluate, and communicate information about the impact of climate change on human health and to make decisions and act accordingly to that information. Climate change affects people's health in numerous ways, both directly and indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risks of cardiovascular disease, infections, depression, anxiety disorders, and trauma. It is important for health professionals to understand the complex interaction between climate change and health. A teaching concept is presented that incorporates the core elements of climate-health literacy. On a first level, physical and climatological basics are taught, direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human health, climate protective measures, the psychological background of climate-protective behavior, and professional ethics. Furthermore, via self-awareness and self-reflection, the impact of climate change on the student's mental health should be evaluated. In an advanced level, the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on mental health are taught, coping strategies, resilience, and vulnerability, as well as the role of health-care professionals in the climate crisis. In expert-level lectures, the knowledge can be deepened, and special content like activist burnout can be addressed.

Gut microbiota modulation enhances the immune capacity of lizards under climate warming

BACKGROUND

Host-microbial interactions are expected to affect species' adaptability to climate change but have rarely been explored in ectothermic animals. Some studies have shown that short-term warming reduced gut microbial diversity that could hamper host functional performance.

RESULTS

However, our longitudinal experiments in semi-natural conditions demonstrated that warming decreased gut microbiota diversity at 2 months, but increased diversity at 13 and 27 months in a desert lizard (Eremias multiocellata). Simultaneously, long-term warming significantly increased the antibacterial activity of serum, immune responses (higher expression of intestinal immune-related genes), and the concentration of short-chain fatty acids (thereby intestinal barrier and immunity) in the lizard. Fecal microbiota transplant experiments further revealed that increased diversity of gut microbiota significantly enhanced antibacterial activity and the immune response of lizards. More specifically, the enhanced immunity is likely due to the higher relative abundance of Bacteroides in warming lizards, given that the bacteria of Bacteroides fragilis regulated IFN-β expression to increase the immune response of lizards under a warming climate.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that gut microbiota can help ectotherms cope with climate warming by enhancing host immune response, and highlights the importance of long-term studies on host-microbial interactions and their biological impacts.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5 °C and 13 °C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

Evolutionary history of host trees amplifies the dilution effect of biodiversity on forest pests

Biodiversity appears to strongly suppress pathogens and pests in many plant and animal systems. However, this "dilution effect" is not consistently detected, and when present can vary strikingly in magnitude. Here, we use forest inventory data from over 25,000 plots (>1.1 million sampled trees) to quantify the strength of the dilution effect on dozens of forest pests and clarify why some pests are particularly sensitive to biodiversity. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we show that pest prevalence is frequently lower in highly diverse forests, but there is considerable variability in the magnitude of this dilution effect among pests. The strength of dilution was not closely associated with host specialization or pest nativity. Instead, pest prevalence was lower in forests where co-occurring tree species were more distantly related to a pest's preferred hosts. Our analyses indicate that host evolutionary history and forest composition are key to understanding how species diversity may dilute the impacts of tree pests, with important implications for predicting how future biodiversity change may affect the spread and distribution of damaging forest pests.

Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.

Host-pathogen interactions under pressure: A review and meta-analysis of stress-mediated effects on disease dynamics

Human activities have increased the intensity and frequency of natural stressors and created novel stressors, altering host-pathogen interactions and changing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Despite the ubiquity of such anthropogenic impacts, predicting the directionality of outcomes has proven challenging. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to determine the primary mechanisms through which stressors affect host-pathogen interactions and to evaluate the impacts stress has on host fitness (survival and fecundity) and pathogen infectivity (prevalence and intensity). We assessed 891 effect sizes from 71 host species (representing seven taxonomic groups) and 78 parasite taxa from 98 studies. We found that infected and uninfected hosts had similar sensitivity to stressors and that responses varied according to stressor type. Specifically, limited resources compromised host fecundity and decreased pathogen intensity, while abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., temperature and salinity) decreased host survivorship and increased pathogen intensity, and pollution increased mortality but decreased pathogen prevalence. We then used our meta-analysis results to develop susceptible-infected theoretical models to illustrate scenarios where infection rates are expected to increase or decrease in response to resource limitations or environmental stress gradients. Our results carry implications for conservation and disease emergence and reveal areas for future work.

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

Warmer temperatures reduce the transmission of a virus in a gregarious forest insect

Understanding how climate warming will influence species interactions is a key question in ecology and predicting changes in the prevalence of disease outbreaks is particularly challenging. Ectotherms are likely to be more influenced by climatic changes as temperature governs their growth, feeding, development, and behavior. We test the hypothesis that pathogen transmission and host mortality will increase at warmer temperatures using a cyclic forest insect, the western tent caterpillar (WTC), Malacosoma californicum pluviale, and its baculovirus. The virus causes population declines at peak host density. WTC are gregarious and clustering is predicted to increase the risk of within family infection; however, how temperature influences this has not been examined. We investigated the impact of temperature on different components of the transmission process in order to pinpoint the possible mechanisms involved. In the laboratory, leaf consumption increased linearly with rising temperature between 15 and 30°C. Insects died more rapidly from virus infection as temperature increased, but this did not translate into differences in the production of viral transmission stages. To examine the influence of temperature on virus transmission, we created a temperature difference between two greenhouses containing potted red alder trees, Alnus rubra. The cooler greenhouse (mean 19.5°C) was roughly similar to ambient temperatures in the field, while the warmer greenhouse was 10°C higher (mean 29°C). As predicted, both larval movement and feeding were higher at the warmer temperature, while the likelihood of the preinfected, inoculum larvae dying on the tents was twice as high in the cooler greenhouse. This resulted in increased virus mortality and a higher transmission parameter under cooler conditions. Therefore, we suggest that, contrary to our prediction, the reduced movement of infected larvae at colder temperatures increased the risk of infection in these gregarious insects and had a greater impact on virus transmission than the increased activity of the susceptible larvae in warmer conditions. Long-term population data from the field, however, show no relationship between temperature and infection levels, suggesting that local changes in virus transmission might not scale up to population infection levels.

Climate change drives loss of bacterial gut mutualists at the expense of host survival in wild meerkats

Climate change and climate-driven increases in infectious disease threaten wildlife populations globally. Gut microbial responses are predicted to either buffer or exacerbate the negative impacts of these twin pressures on host populations. However, examples that document how gut microbial communities respond to long-term shifts in climate and associated disease risk, and the consequences for host survival, are rare. Over the past two decades, wild meerkats inhabiting the Kalahari have experienced rapidly rising temperatures, which is linked to the spread of tuberculosis (TB). We show that over the same period, the faecal microbiota of this population has become enriched in Bacteroidia and impoverished in lactic acid bacteria (LAB), a group of bacteria including Lactococcus and Lactobacillus that are considered gut mutualists. These shifts occurred within individuals yet were compounded over generations, and were better explained by mean maximum temperatures than mean rainfall over the previous year. Enriched Bacteroidia were additionally associated with TB exposure and disease, the dry season and poorer body condition, factors that were all directly linked to reduced future survival. Lastly, abundances of LAB taxa were independently and positively linked to future survival, while enriched taxa did not predict survival. Together, these results point towards extreme temperatures driving an expansion of a disease-associated pathobiome and loss of beneficial taxa. Our study provides the first evidence from a longitudinally sampled population that climate change is restructuring wildlife gut microbiota, and that these changes may amplify the negative impacts of climate change through the loss of gut mutualists. While the plastic response of host-associated microbiotas is key for host adaptation under normal environmental fluctuations, extreme temperature increases might lead to a breakdown of coevolved host-mutualist relationships.

A pathogen's spatial range is not constrained by geographical features in the flax rust pathosystem

Climate change and shifting environmental conditions can allow pathogens to spread into previously unburdened areas. For plant pathogens, this dynamic has the potential to disrupt natural ecosystem equilibria and human agriculture, making predicting plant pathogen range shifts increasingly important. Although such predictions will hinge on an accurate understanding of the determinants of pathogen range-namely the environmental, geographical, and host range characteristics that modulate local pathogen habitation-few studies to date have probed these in natural plant populations. Here, we characterize range determinants for the model system of Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) and its pathogen, flax rust (Melampsora lini), in the Rocky Mountains. Transect surveys were performed to assess three relationships: (i) the effect of geographical features-elevation, slope aspect, slope grade, and land cover-on flax presence and density, (ii) the effect of geographical features on flax rust presence and prevalence, and (iii) the effects of flax's local population density and metapopulation structure on flax rust presence and prevalence. We found that flax population density, but not host metapopulation structure, influences the distribution of flax rust. Additionally, we showed that, while the distribution of flax was broadly constrained to a relatively narrow range of geographical and resulting environmental features, flax rust was evenly distributed across the full range of settings measured. These results indicate that a warming environment, which is expected to modulate such features, may restrict the optimal range of the plant more than that of its pathogen. Importantly, our results also suggest that even if flax shifts its spatial range to escape increasing climatic pressures, flax rust will not face any significant barriers to track this movement.

Comparison of de novo assembly using long-read shotgun metagenomic sequencing of viruses in fecal and serum samples from marine mammals

Introduction

Viral diseases of marine mammals are difficult to study, and this has led to a limited knowledge on emerging known and unknown viruses which are ongoing threats to animal health. Viruses are the leading cause of infectious disease-induced mass mortality events among marine mammals.

Methods

In this study, we performed viral metagenomics in stool and serum samples from California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) and bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncates) using long-read nanopore sequencing. Two widely used long-read de novo assemblers, Canu and Metaflye, were evaluated to assemble viral metagenomic sequencing reads from marine mammals.

Results

Both Metaflye and Canu assembled similar viral contigs of vertebrates, such as Parvoviridae, and Poxviridae. Metaflye assembled viral contigs that aligned with one viral family that was not reproduced by Canu, while Canu assembled viral contigs that aligned with seven viral families that was not reproduced by Metaflye. Only Canu assembled viral contigs from dolphin and sea lion fecal samples that matched both protein and nucleotide RefSeq viral databases using BLASTx and BLASTn for Anelloviridae, Parvoviridae and Circoviridae families. Viral contigs assembled with Canu aligned with torque teno viruses and anelloviruses from vertebrate hosts. Viruses associated with invertebrate hosts including densoviruses, Ambidensovirus, and various Circoviridae isolates were also aligned. Some of the invertebrate and vertebrate viruses reported here are known to potentially cause mortality events and/or disease in different seals, sea stars, fish, and bivalve species.

Discussion

Canu performed better by producing the most viral contigs as compared to Metaflye with assemblies aligning to both protein and nucleotide databases. This study suggests that marine mammals can be used as important sentinels to surveil marine viruses that can potentially cause diseases in vertebrate and invertebrate hosts.

The hidden risk of microplastic-associated pathogens in aquatic environments

Increasing studies of plastisphere have raised public concern about microplastics (MPs) as vectors for pathogens, especially in aquatic environments. However, the extent to which pathogens affect human health through MPs remains unclear, as controversies persist regarding the distinct pathogen colonization on MPs as well as the transmission routes and infection probability of MP-associated pathogens from water to humans. In this review, we critically discuss whether and how pathogens approach humans via MPs, shedding light on the potential health risks involved. Drawing on cutting-edge multidisciplinary research, we show that some MPs may facilitate the growth and long-range transmission of specific pathogens in aquatic environments, ultimately increasing the risk of infection in humans. We identify MP- and pathogen-rich settings, such as wastewater treatment plants, aquaculture farms, and swimming pools, as possible sites for human exposure to MP-associated pathogens. This review emphasizes the need for further research and targeted interventions to better understand and mitigate the potential health risks associated with MP-mediated pathogen transmission.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5°C and 13°C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

The two chytrid pathogens of amphibians in Eurasia-climatic niches and future expansion

BACKGROUND

Climate affects the thermal adaptation and distribution of hosts, and drives the spread of Chytridiomycosis-a keratin-associated infectious disease of amphibians caused by the sister pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidi (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal). We focus on their climate-pathogen relationships in Eurasia, the only region where their geographical distributions overlap. Eurasia harbours invaded and native areas of both pathogens and the natural habitats where they co-exist, making it an ideal region to examine their environmental niche correlations. Our understanding of how climate change will affect their distribution is broadened by the differences in climate correlates and niche characteristics between Bd and Bsal in Asia and Europe. This knowledge has potential conservation implications, informing future spread of the disease in different regions.

RESULTS

We quantified the environmental niche overlap between Bd and Bsal in Eurasia using niche analyses. Results revealed partial overlap in the niche with a unique 4% of non-overlapping values for Bsal, suggesting segregation along certain climate axes. Bd tolerates higher temperature fluctuations, while Bsal requires more stable, lower temperature and wetter conditions. Projections of their Realized Climatic Niches (RCNs) to future conditions show a larger expansion of suitable ranges (SRs) for Bd compared to Bsal in both Asia and Europe, with their centroids shifting in different directions. Notably, both pathogens' highly suitable areas in Asia are expected to shrink significantly, especially under the extreme climate scenarios. In Europe, they are expected to expand significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change will impact or increase disease risk to amphibian hosts, particularly in Europe. Given the shared niche space of the two pathogens across available climate gradients, as has already been witnessed in Eurasia with an increased range expansion and niche overlap due to climate change, we expect that regions where Bsal is currently absent but salamanders are present, and where Bd is already prevalent, may be conducive for the spread of Bsal.

A big data-model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host-pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data-model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Climate change in the Arctic: Testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases

Climate change is most strongly felt in the polar regions of the world, with significant impacts on the species that live there. The arrival of parasites and pathogens from more temperate areas may become a significant problem for these populations, but current observations of parasite presence often lack a historical reference of prior absence. Observations in the high Arctic of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae suggested that this species expanded poleward in the last two decades in relation to climate change. As this tick can have a direct impact on the breeding success of its seabird hosts and vectors several pathogens, including Lyme disease spirochaetes, understanding its invasion dynamics is essential for predicting its impact on polar seabird populations. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to test the hypothesis that I. uriae recently expanded into Svalbard. Both black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were sampled for ticks and blood in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen. Ticks were genotyped using microsatellite markers and population genetic analyses were performed using data from 14 reference populations from across the tick's northern distribution. In contrast to predictions, the Spitsbergen population showed high genetic diversity and significant differentiation from reference populations, suggesting long-term isolation. Host serology also demonstrated a high exposure rate to Lyme disease spirochaetes (Bbsl). Targeted PCR and sequencing confirmed the presence of Borrelia garinii in a Spitsbergen tick, demonstrating the presence of Lyme disease bacteria in the high Arctic for the first time. Taken together, results contradict the notion that I. uriae has recently expanded into the high Arctic. Rather, this tick has likely been present for some time, maintaining relatively high population sizes and an endemic transmission cycle of Bbsl. Close future observations of population infestation/infection rates will now be necessary to relate epidemiological changes to ongoing climate modifications.

Species coexistence and niche interaction between sympatric giant panda and Chinese red panda: A spatiotemporal approach

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and the Chinese red panda (Ailurus styani) are distributed in the same region in the mountain forest ecosystem on the eastern edge of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and share the same food sources. In order to understand how sympatric giant pandas and Chinese red pandas maintain interspecific relationships to achieve stable coexistence, we used species distribution models and diurnal activity rhythms to analyze the spatial and temporal niche characteristics of giant pandas and Chinese red pandas in the Daxiangling Mountain system based on 187 camera traps data. The results show that: (1) In the Daxiangling Mountains, the total area of suitable habitats for giant pandas and Chinese red pandas is 717.61 km² and 730.00 km², respectively, accounting for 17.78% and 18.25%, respectively, of the study area. (2) The top five environmental factors contributing to the model of giant panda and Chinese red panda are precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, distance to the road, and elevation and vegetation type. (3) The total overlapping area of suitable habitats for giant pandas and Chinese red pandas is 342.23 km², of which the overlapping area of highly suitable habitats is 98.91 km². The overlapping index of suitable habitats is 0.472, and the overlapping index of highly suitable habitats is 0.348, which indicates that the two achieve spatial niches are separated to achieve stable coexistence. (4) The overlapping index of the daily activity rhythm of giant panda and Chinese red panda is 0.87, which is significantly different (p < .05). The existence of Chinese red panda will significantly affect the daily activity rhythm of giant panda (p < .001). This research can provide scientific reference for the researches about population and habitat protection of giant pandas and Chinese red pandas, so as to understand the driving mechanism of resource allocation and population dynamics of sympatric species.

Infection burdens and virulence under heat stress: ecological and evolutionary considerations

As a result of global change, hosts and parasites (including pathogens) are experiencing shifts in their thermal environment. Despite the importance of heat stress tolerance for host population persistence, infection by parasites can impair a host's ability to cope with heat. Host-parasite eco-evolutionary dynamics will be affected if infection reduces host performance during heating. Theory predicts that within-host parasite burden (replication rate or number of infecting parasites per host), a key component of parasite fitness, should correlate positively with virulence-the harm caused to hosts during infection. Surprisingly, however, the relationship between within-host parasite burden and virulence during heating is often weak. Here, we describe the current evidence for the link between within-host parasite burden and host heat stress tolerance. We consider the biology of host-parasite systems that may explain the weak or absent link between these two important host and parasite traits during hot conditions. The processes that mediate the relationship between parasite burden and host fitness will be fundamental in ecological and evolutionary responses of host and parasites in a warming world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed "Hotter is better" hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.

Resetting our expectations for parasites and their effects on species interactions: a meta-analysis

Despite the ubiquitous nature of parasitism, how parasitism alters the outcome of host-species interactions such as competition, mutualism and predation remains unknown. Using a phylogenetically informed meta-analysis of 154 studies, we examined how the mean and variance in the outcomes of species interactions differed between parasitized and non-parasitized hosts. Overall, parasitism did not significantly affect the mean or variance of host-species interaction outcomes, nor did the shared evolutionary histories of hosts and parasites have an effect. Instead, there was considerable variation in outcomes, ranging from strongly detrimental to strongly beneficial for infected hosts. Trophically-transmitted parasites increased the negative effects of predation, parasites increased and decreased the negative effects of interspecific competition for parasitized and non-parasitized heterospecifics, respectively, and parasites had particularly strong negative effects on host species interactions in freshwater and marine habitats, yet were beneficial in terrestrial environments. Our results illuminate the diverse ways in which parasites modify critical linkages in ecological networks, implying that whether the cumulative effects of parasitism are considered detrimental depends not only on the interactions between hosts and their parasites but also on the many other interactions that hosts experience.

Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to populations

Parasitism is expected to change in a warmer future, but whether warming leads to substantial increases in parasitism remains unclear. Understanding how warming effects on parasitism in individual hosts (e.g. parasite load) translate to effects on population-level parasitism (e.g. prevalence, R0 ) remains a major knowledge gap. We conducted a literature review and identified 24 host-parasite systems that had information on the temperature dependence of parasitism at both individual host and host population levels: 13 vector-borne systems and 11 environmentally transmitted systems. We found a strong positive correlation between the thermal optima of individual- and population-level parasitism, although several of the environmentally transmitted systems exhibited thermal optima >5°C apart between individual and population levels. Parasitism thermal optima were close to vector performance thermal optima in vector-borne systems but not hosts in environmentally transmitted systems, suggesting these thermal mismatches may be more common in certain types of host-parasite systems. We also adapted and simulated simple models for both types of transmission modes and found the same pattern across the two modes: thermal optima were more strongly correlated across scales when there were more traits linking individual- to population-level processes. Generally, our results suggest that information on the temperature dependence, and specifically the thermal optimum, at either the individual or population level should provide a useful-although not quantitatively exact-baseline for predicting temperature dependence at the other level, especially in vector-borne parasite systems. Environmentally transmitted parasitism may operate by a different set of rules, in which temperature dependence is decoupled in some systems, requiring the need for trait-based studies of temperature dependence at individual and population levels.

Wildlife susceptibility to infectious diseases at global scales

Disease transmission prediction across wildlife is crucial for risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases. Susceptibility of host species to pathogens is influenced by the geographic, environmental, and phylogenetic context of the specific system under study. We used machine learning to analyze how such variables influence pathogen incidence for multihost pathogen assemblages, including one of direct transmission (coronaviruses and bats) and two vector-borne systems (West Nile Virus [WNV] and birds, and malaria and birds). Here we show that this methodology is able to provide reliable global spatial susceptibility predictions for the studied host-pathogen systems, even when using a small amount of incidence information (i.e., [Formula: see text] of information in a database). We found that avian malaria was mostly affected by environmental factors and by an interaction between phylogeny and geography, and WNV susceptibility was mostly influenced by phylogeny and by the interaction between geographic and environmental distances, whereas coronavirus susceptibility was mostly affected by geography. This approach will help to direct surveillance and field efforts providing cost-effective decisions on where to invest limited resources.

Association of Environmental Factors with Seasonal Intensity of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae Seropositivity among Arctic Caribou

Several caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations have been declining concurrently with increases in infectious diseases in the Arctic. Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a zoonotic bacterium, was first described in 2015 as a notable cause of illness and death among several Arctic wildlife species. We investigated epidemiologic and environmental factors associated with the seroprevalence of E. rhusiopathiae in the Arctic and found that seropositivity was highest during warmer months, peaking in September, and was highest among adult males. Summer seroprevalence increases tracked with the oestrid index from the previous year, icing and snowing events, and precipitation from the same year but decreased with growing degree days in the same year. Seroprevalence of E. rhusiopathiae varied more during the later years of the study. Our findings provide key insights into the influence of environmental factors on disease prevalence that can be instrumental for anticipating and mitigating diseases associated with climate change among Arctic wildlife and human populations.

Chromosomal-level reference genome assembly of the North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus): a resource for conservation genomics

We report a chromosomal-level genome assembly of a male North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus) from the Kugluktuk region of Nunavut, Canada. The genome was assembled directly from long-reads, comprising: 758 contigs with a contig N50 of 36.6 Mb; contig L50 of 20; base count of 2.39 Gb; and a near complete representation (99.98%) of the BUSCO 5.2.2 set of 9,226 genes. A presumptive chromosomal-level assembly was generated by scaffolding against two chromosomal-level Mustelidae reference genomes, the ermine and the Eurasian river otter, to derive a final scaffold N50 of 144.0 Mb and a scaffold L50 of 7. We annotated a comprehensive set of genes that have been associated with models of aggressive behavior, a trait which the wolverine is purported to have in the popular literature. To support an integrated, genomics-based wildlife management strategy at a time of environmental disruption from climate change, we annotated the principal genes of the innate immune system to provide a resource to study the wolverine’s susceptibility to new infectious and parasitic diseases. As a resource, we annotated genes involved in the modality of infection by the coronaviruses, an important class of viral pathogens of growing concern as shown by the recent spillover infections by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 to naïve wildlife. Tabulation of heterozygous single nucleotide variants in our specimen revealed a heterozygosity level of 0.065%, indicating a relatively diverse genetic pool that would serve as a baseline for the genomics-based conservation of the wolverine, a rare cold-adapted carnivore now under threat.

A parasite outbreak in notothenioid fish in an Antarctic fjord

Climate changes can promote disease outbreaks, but their nature and potential impacts in remote areas have received little attention. In a hot spot of biodiversity on the West Antarctic Peninsula, which faces among the fastest changing climates on Earth, we captured specimens of two notothenioid fish species affected by large skin tumors at an incidence never before observed in the Southern Ocean. Molecular and histopathological analyses revealed that X-cell parasitic alveolates, members of a genus we call Notoxcellia, are the etiological agent of these tumors. Parasite-specific molecular probes showed that xenomas remained within the skin but largely outgrew host cells in the dermis. We further observed that tumors induced neovascularization in underlying tissue and detrimentally affected host growth and condition. Although many knowledge gaps persist about X-cell disease, including its mode of transmission and life cycle, these findings reveal potentially active biotic threats to vulnerable Antarctic ecosystems.

Using transcriptomics to predict and visualize disease status in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis)

Increasing risk of pathogen spillover coupled with overall declines in wildlife population abundance in the Anthropocene make infectious disease a relevant concern for species conservation worldwide. While emerging molecular tools could improve our diagnostic capabilities and give insight into mechanisms underlying wildlife disease risk, they have rarely been applied in practice. Here, employing a previously reported gene transcription panel of common immune markers to track physiological changes, we present a detailed analysis over the course of both acute and chronic infection in one wildlife species where disease plays a critical role in conservation, bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Differential gene transcription patterns distinguished between infection statuses over the course of acute infection and differential correlation (DC) analyses identified clear changes in gene co-transcription patterns over the early stages of infection, with transcription of four genes-TGFb, AHR, IL1b and MX1-continuing to increase even as transcription of other immune-associated genes waned. In a separate analysis, we considered the capacity of the same gene transcription panel to aid in differentiating between chronically infected animals and animals in other disease states outside of acute disease events (an immediate priority for wildlife management in this system). We found that this transcription panel was capable of accurately identifying chronically infected animals in the test dataset, though additional data will be required to determine how far this ability extends. Taken together, our results showcase the successful proof of concept and breadth of potential utilities that gene transcription might provide to wildlife disease management, from direct insight into mechanisms associated with differential disease response to improved diagnostic capacity in the field.

Symbiosis and host responses to heating

Virtually all organisms are colonized by microbes. Average temperatures are rising because of global climate change - accompanied by increases in extreme climatic events and heat shock - and symbioses with microbes may determine species persistence in the 21st century. Although parasite infection typically reduces host upper thermal limits, interactions with beneficial microbes can facilitate host adaptation to warming. The effects of warming on the ecology and evolution of the microbial symbionts remain understudied but are important for understanding how climate change might affect host health and disease. We present a framework for untangling the contributions of symbiosis to predictions of host persistence in the face of global change.

Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals

With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.

Urban-adapted mammal species have more known pathogens

The world is rapidly urbanizing, inviting mounting concern that urban environments will experience increased zoonotic disease risk. Urban animals could have more frequent contact with humans, therefore transmitting more zoonotic parasites; however, this relationship is complicated by sampling bias and phenotypic confounders. Here we test whether urban mammal species host more zoonotic parasites, investigating the underlying drivers alongside a suite of phenotypic, taxonomic and geographic predictors. We found that urban-adapted mammals have more documented parasites and more zoonotic parasites: despite comprising only 6% of investigated species, urban mammals provided 39% of known host-parasite combinations. However, contrary to predictions, much of the observed effect was attributable to parasite discovery and research effort rather than to urban adaptation status, and urban-adapted species in fact hosted fewer zoonotic parasites than expected on the basis of their total parasite richness. We conclude that extended historical contact with humans has had a limited impact on zoonotic parasite richness in urban-adapted mammals; instead, their greater observed zoonotic richness probably reflects sampling bias arising from proximity to humans, supporting a near-universal conflation between zoonotic risk, research effort and synanthropy. These findings underscore the need to resolve the mechanisms linking anthropogenic change, sampling bias and observed wildlife disease dynamics.

Does the thermal mismatch hypothesis predict disease outcomes in different morphs of a terrestrial salamander?

Many aspects of ectotherm physiology are temperature-dependent. The immune system of temperate-dwelling ectothermic host species is no exception and their immune function is often downregulated in cold temperatures. Likewise, species of ectothermic pathogens experience temperature-mediated effects on rates of transmission and/or virulence. Although seemingly straightforward, predicting the outcomes of ectothermic host-pathogen interactions is quite challenging. A recent hypothesis termed the thermal mismatch hypothesis posits that cool-adapted host species should be most susceptible to pathogen infection during warm temperature periods whereas warm-adapted host species should be most susceptible to pathogens during periods of cool temperatures. We explore this hypothesis using two ecologically and physiologically differentiated color morphs of the Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus) and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; hereafter "Bd") using a fully factorial laboratory experiment. At cool temperatures, unstriped salamanders (i.e., those that are tolerant of warm temperatures) had a significantly higher probability of Bd infection compared with cool-tolerant striped salamanders, consistent with the thermal mismatch hypothesis. However, we found no support for this hypothesis when salamanders were exposed to Bd at warm temperatures: the probability of Bd infection in the cool-tolerant striped salamanders was nearly identical in both cool and warm temperatures, opposite the predictions of the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results are most consistent with the fact that Bd grows poorly at warm temperatures. Alternatively, our data could indicate that the two color morphs do not differ in their tolerance to warm temperatures but that striped salamanders are more tolerant to cool temperatures than unstriped salamanders.

A review of approaches to control bacterial leaf blight in rice

The Gram-negative bacteria Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae, the causative agent of bacterial leaf blight (BLB), received attention for being an economically damaging pathogen of rice worldwide. This damage prompted efforts to better understand the molecular mechanisms governing BLB disease progression. This research revealed numerous virulence factors that are employed by this vascular pathogen to invade the host, outcompete host defence mechanisms, and cause disease. In this review, we emphasize the virulence factors and molecular mechanisms that X. oryzae pv. oryzae uses to impair host defences, recent insights into the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying host-pathogen interactions and components of pathogenicity, methods for developing X. oryzae pv. oryzae-resistant rice cultivars, strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks, and newly discovered genes and tools for disease management. We conclude that the implementation and application of cutting-edge technologies and tools are crucial to avoid yield losses from BLB and ensure food security.

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.

Cascading effects of a disease outbreak in a remote protected area

Disease outbreaks induced by humans increasingly threaten wildlife communities worldwide. Like predators, pathogens can be key top-down forces in ecosystems, initiating trophic cascades that may alter food webs. An outbreak of mange in a remote Andean protected area caused a dramatic population decline in a mammalian herbivore (the vicuña), creating conditions to test the cascading effects of disease on the ecological community. By comparing a suite of ecological measurements to pre-disease baseline records, we demonstrate that mange restructured tightly linked trophic interactions previously driven by a mammalian predator (the puma). Following the mange outbreak, scavenger (Andean condor) occurrence in the ecosystem declined sharply and plant biomass and cover increased dramatically in predation refuges where herbivory was historically concentrated. The evidence shows that a disease-induced trophic cascade, mediated by vicuña density, could supplant the predator-induced trophic cascade, mediated by vicuña behaviour, thereby transforming the Andean ecosystem.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Plague Risk in the Tibetan Plateau from 1954-2016

Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km², respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km², respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.

Intraspecific diversity alters the relationship between climate change and parasitism in a polymorphic ectotherm

Climate-modulated parasitism is driven by a range of factors, yet the spatial and temporal variability of this relationship has received scant attention in wild vertebrate hosts. Moreover, most prior studies overlooked the intraspecific differences across host morphotypes, which impedes a full understanding of the climate-parasitism relationship. In the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara), females exhibit three colour morphs: yellow (Y-females), orange (O-females) and mixed (mixture of yellow and orange, M-females). Zootoca vivipara is also infested with an ectoparasite (Ophionyssus mites). We therefore used this model system to examine the intraspecific response of hosts to parasitism under climate change. We found infestation probability to differ across colour morphs at both spatial (10 sites) and temporal (20 years) scales: M-females had lower parasite infestations than Y- and O-females at lower temperatures, but became more susceptible to parasites as temperature increased. The advantage of M-females at low temperatures was counterbalanced by their higher mortality rates thereafter, which suggests a morph-dependent trade-off between resistance to parasites and host survival. Furthermore, significant interactions between colour morphs and temperature indicate that the relationship between parasite infestations and climate warming was contingent on host morphotypes. Parasite infestations increased with temperature for most morphs, but displayed morph-specific rates. Finally, infested M-females had higher reductions in survival rates than infested Y- or O-females, which implies a potential loss of intraspecific diversity within populations as parasitism and temperatures rise. Overall, we found parasitism increases with warming temperatures, but this relationship is modulated by host morphotypes and an interaction with temperature. We suggest that epidemiological models incorporate intraspecific diversity within species for better understanding the dynamics of wildlife diseases under climate warming.

Predicting the response of disease vectors to global change: The importance of allometric scaling

The distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes is changing. Climate change, invasions and vector control strategies all alter the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. When disease vectors undergo a range shift, so do disease burdens. Predicting such shifts is a priority to adequately prepare for disease control. Accurate predictions of distributional changes depend on how factors such as temperature and competition affect mosquito life-history traits, particularly body size and reproduction. Direct estimates of both body size and reproduction in mosquitoes are logistically challenging and time-consuming, so the field has long relied upon linear (isometric) conversions between wing length (a convenient proxy of size) and reproductive output. These linear transformations underlie most models projecting species' distributions and competitive interactions between native and invasive disease vectors. Using a series of meta-analyses, we show that the relationship between wing length and fecundity are nonlinear (hyperallometric) for most mosquito species. We show that whilst most models ignore reproductive hyperallometry (with respect to wing length), doing so introduces systematic biases into estimates of population growth. In particular, failing to account for reproductive hyperallometry overestimates the effects of temperature and underestimates the effects of competition. Assuming isometry also increases the potential to misestimate the efficacy of vector control strategies by underestimating the contribution of larger females in population replenishment. Finally, failing to account for reproductive hyperallometry and variation in body size can lead to qualitative errors via the counter-intuitive effects of Jensen's inequality. For example, if mean sizes decrease, but variance increases, then reproductive outputs may actually increase. We suggest that future disease vector models incorporate hyperallometric relationships to more accurately predict changes in mosquito distribution in response to global change.

Adaptation and cryptic pseudogenization in penguin Toll-like Receptors

Penguins (Sphenisciformes) are an iconic order of flightless, diving seabirds distributed across a large latitudinal range in the Southern Hemisphere. The extensive area over which penguins are endemic is likely to have fostered variation in pathogen pressure, which in turn will have imposed differential selective pressures on the penguin immune system. At the front line of pathogen detection and response, the Toll-like receptors (TLRs) provide insight into host evolution in the face of microbial challenge. TLRs respond to conserved pathogen-associated molecular patterns and are frequently found to be under positive selection, despite retaining specificity for defined agonist classes. We undertook a comparative immunogenetics analysis of TLRs for all penguin species and found evidence of adaptive evolution that was largely restricted to the cell surface-expressed TLRs, with evidence of positive selection at, or near, key agonist-binding sites in TLR1B, TLR4, and TLR5. Intriguingly, TLR15, which is activated by fungal products, appeared to have been pseudogenized multiple times in the Eudyptes spp., but a full-length form was present as a rare haplotype at the population level. However, in vitro analysis revealed that even the full-length form of Eudyptes TLR15 was nonfunctional, indicating an ancestral cryptic pseudogenization prior to its eventual disruption multiple times in the Eudyptes lineage. This unusual pseudogenization event could provide an insight into immune adaptation to fungal pathogens such as Aspergillus, which is responsible for significant mortality in wild and captive bird populations.

Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface

The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host–pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.