Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

Avian migration clocks in a changing world

Avian long-distance migration requires refined programming to orchestrate the birds' movements on annual temporal and continental spatial scales. Programming is particularly important as long-distance movements typically anticipate future environmental conditions. Hence, migration has long been of particular interest in chronobiology. Captivity studies using a proxy, the shift to nocturnality during migration seasons (i.e., migratory restlessness), have revealed circannual and circadian regulation, as well as an innate sense of direction. Thanks to rapid development of tracking technology, detailed information from free-flying birds, including annual-cycle data and actograms, now allows relating this mechanistic background to behaviour in the wild. Likewise, genomic approaches begin to unravel the many physiological pathways that contribute to migration. Despite these advances, it is still unclear how migration programmes are integrated with specific environmental conditions experienced during the journey. Such knowledge is imminently important as temporal environments undergo rapid anthropogenic modification. Migratory birds as a group are not dealing well with the changes, yet some species show remarkable adjustments at behavioural and genetic levels. Integrated research programmes and interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to understand the range of responses of migratory birds to environmental change, and more broadly, the functioning of timing programmes under natural conditions.

Microbially Inspired Calcium Carbonate Precipitation Pathway Integrated Polyelectrolyte Capsules (MICPC) for Biomolecules Release

Complexation between oppositely charged polyelectrolytes offers a facile single-step strategy for assembling functional micro-nano carriers for efficient drug and vaccine delivery. However, the stability of the delivery system within the physiological environment is compromised due to the swelling of the polyelectrolyte complex, driven by the charge shielding effect, and consequently leads to uncontrollable burst release, thereby limiting its potential applications. In a pioneering approach, cellular pathway-inspired calcium carbonate precipitation pathways are developed that are integrated into polyelectrolyte capsules (MICPC). These innovative capsules are fabricated at the interface of all-aqueous microfluidic droplets, resulting in a precisely controllable and sustained release profile in physiological conditions. Unlike single-step polyelectrolyte assembly capsules which always perform rapid burst release, the MICPC exhibits a sustainable and tunable release pattern, releasing biomolecules at an average rate of 3-10% per day. Remarkably, the degree of control over MICPC's release kinetics can be finely tuned by adjusting the quantity of synthesized calcium carbonate particles within the polyelectrolyte complex. This groundbreaking work not only deepens the insights into polyelectrolyte complexation but also significantly enhances the overall stability of these complexes, opening up new avenues for expanding the range of applications involving polyelectrolyte complex-related materials.

Little evidence of inbreeding depression for birth mass, survival and growth in Antarctic fur seal pups

Inbreeding depression, the loss of offspring fitness due to consanguineous mating, is generally detrimental for individual performance and population viability. We investigated inbreeding effects in a declining population of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at Bird Island, South Georgia. Here, localised warming has reduced the availability of the seal's staple diet, Antarctic krill, leading to a temporal increase in the strength of selection against inbred offspring, which are increasingly failing to recruit into the adult breeding population. However, it remains unclear whether selection operates before or after nutritional independence at weaning. We therefore used microsatellite data from 885 pups and their mothers, and SNP array data from 98 mother-offspring pairs, to quantify the effects of individual and maternal inbreeding on three important neonatal fitness traits: birth mass, survival and growth. We did not find any clear or consistent effects of offspring or maternal inbreeding on any of these traits. This suggests that selection filters inbred individuals out of the population as juveniles during the time window between weaning and recruitment. Our study brings into focus a poorly understood life-history stage and emphasises the importance of understanding the ecology and threats facing juvenile pinnipeds.

Rapid Evolution of Resistance and Tolerance Leads to Variable Host Recoveries following Disease-Induced Declines

AbstractRecoveries of populations that have suffered severe disease-induced declines are being observed across disparate taxa. Yet we lack theoretical understanding of the drivers and dynamics of recovery in host populations and communities impacted by infectious disease. Motivated by disease-induced declines and nascent recoveries in amphibians, we developed a model to ask the following question: How does the rapid evolution of different host defense strategies affect the transient recovery trajectories of hosts following pathogen invasion and disease-induced declines? We found that while host life history is predictably a major driver of variability in population recovery trajectories (including declines and recoveries), populations that use different host defense strategies (i.e., tolerance, avoidance resistance, and intensity-reduction resistance) experience notably different recoveries. In single-species host populations, populations evolving tolerance recovered on average four times slower than populations evolving resistance. Moreover, while populations using avoidance resistance strategies had the fastest potential recovery rates, these populations could get trapped in long transient states at low abundance prior to recovery. In contrast, the recovery of populations evolving intensity-reduction resistance strategies were more consistent across ecological contexts. Overall, host defense strategies strongly affect the transient dynamics of population recovery and may affect the ultimate fate of real populations recovering from disease-induced declines.

Insights from a 31-year study demonstrate an inverse correlation between recreational activities and red deer fecundity, with bodyweight as a mediator

Human activity is omnipresent in our landscapes. Animals can perceive risk from humans similar to predation risk, which could affect their fitness. We assessed the influence of the relative intensity of recreational activities on the bodyweight and pregnancy rates of red deer (Cervus elaphus) between 1985 and 2015. We hypothesized that stress, as a result of recreational activities, affects the pregnancy rates of red deer directly and indirectly via a reduction in bodyweight. Furthermore, we expected non-motorized recreational activities to have a larger negative effect on both bodyweight and fecundity, compared to motorized recreational activities. The intensity of recreational activities was recorded through visual observations. We obtained pregnancy data from female red deer that were shot during the regular hunting season. Additionally, age and bodyweight were determined through a post-mortem examination. We used two Generalized-Linear-Mixed Models (GLMM) to test the effect of different types of recreation on (1) pregnancy rates and (2) bodyweight of red deer. Recreation had a direct negative correlation with the fecundity of red deer, with bodyweight, as a mediator as expected. Besides, we found a negative effect of non-motorized recreation on fecundity and bodyweight and no significant effect of motorized recreation. Our results support the concept of humans as an important stressor affecting wild animal populations at a population level and plead to regulate recreational activities in protected areas that are sensitive. The fear humans induce in large-bodied herbivores and its consequences for fitness may have strong implications for animal populations.

Fitness surfaces and local thermal adaptation in Drosophila along a latitudinal gradient

Local adaptation is commonly cited to explain species distribution, but how fitness varies along continuous geographical gradients is not well understood. Here, we combine thermal biology and life-history theory to demonstrate that Drosophila populations along a 2500 km latitudinal cline are adapted to local conditions. We measured how heat tolerance and viability rate across eight populations varied with temperature in the laboratory and then simulated their expected cumulative Darwinian fitness employing high-resolution temperature data from their eight collection sites. Simulations indicate a trade-off between annual survival and cumulative viability, as both mortality and the recruitment of new flies are predicted to increase in warmer regions. Importantly, populations are locally adapted and exhibit the optimal combination of both traits to maximize fitness where they live. In conclusion, our method is able to reconstruct fitness surfaces employing empirical life-history estimates and reconstructs peaks representing locally adapted populations, allowing us to study geographic adaptation in silico.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

RNA m6 A Methylation Suppresses Insect Juvenile Hormone Degradation to Minimize Fitness Costs in Response to A Pathogenic Attack

Bioinsecticides and transgenic crops based on the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) can effectively control diverse agricultural insect pests, nevertheless, the evolution of resistance without obvious fitness costs has seriously eroded the sustainable use of these Bt products. Recently, it has been discovered that an increased titer of juvenile hormone (JH) favors an insect host (Plutella xylostella) to enhance fitness whilst resisting the Bt pathogen, however, the underlying regulatory mechanisms of the increased JH titer are obscure. Here, the involvement of N6 -methyladenosine (m6 A) RNA modification in modulating the availability of JH in this process is defined. Specifically, it is found that two m6 A methyltransferase subunit genes, PxMettl3 and PxMettl14, repress the expression of a key JH-degrading enzyme JH esterase (JHE) to induce an increased JH titer, mitigating the fitness costs associated with a robust defense against the Bt pathogen. This study identifies an as-yet uncharacterized m6 A-mediated epigenetic regulator of insect hormones for maintaining fitness during pathogen defense and unveils an emerging Bt resistance-related m6 A methylation atlas in insects, which further expands the functional landscape of m6 A modification and showcases the pivotal role of epigenetic regulation in host-pathogen interactions.

When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.

The estimation of additive genetic variance of body size in a wild passerine is sensitive to the method used to estimate relatedness among the individuals

Assessing additive genetic variance is a crucial step in predicting the evolutionary response of a target trait. However, the estimated genetic variance may be sensitive to the methodology used, e.g., the way relatedness is assessed among the individuals, especially in wild populations where social pedigrees can be inaccurate. To investigate this possibility, we investigated the additive genetic variance in tarsus length, a major proxy of skeletal body size in birds. The model species was the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis), a socially monogamous but genetically polygamous migratory passerine. We used two relatedness matrices to estimate the genetic variance: (1) based solely on social links and (2) a genetic similarity matrix based on a large array of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Depending on the relatedness matrix considered, we found moderate to high additive genetic variance and heritability estimates for tarsus length. In particular, the heritability estimates were higher when obtained with the genetic similarity matrix instead of the social pedigree. Our results confirm the potential for this crucial trait to respond to selection and highlight methodological concerns when calculating additive genetic variance and heritability in phenotypic traits. We conclude that using a social pedigree instead of a genetic similarity matrix to estimate relatedness among individuals in a genetically polygamous wild population may significantly deflate the estimates of additive genetic variation.

Heat stress reveals a fertility debt owing to postcopulatory sexual selection

Climates are changing rapidly, demanding equally rapid adaptation of natural populations. Whether sexual selection can aid such adaptation is under debate; while sexual selection should promote adaptation when individuals with high mating success are also best adapted to their local surroundings, the expression of sexually selected traits can incur costs. Here we asked what the demographic consequences of such costs may be once climates change to become harsher and the strength of natural selection increases. We first adopted a classic life history theory framework, incorporating a trade-off between reproduction and maintenance, and applied it to the male germline to generate formalized predictions for how an evolutionary history of strong postcopulatory sexual selection (sperm competition) may affect male fertility under acute adult heat stress. We then tested these predictions by assessing the thermal sensitivity of fertility (TSF) in replicated lineages of seed beetles maintained for 68 generations under three alternative mating regimes manipulating the opportunity for sexual and natural selection. In line with the theoretical predictions, we find that males evolving under strong sexual selection suffer from increased TSF. Interestingly, females from the regime under strong sexual selection, who experienced relaxed selection on their own reproductive effort, had high fertility in benign settings but suffered increased TSF, like their brothers. This implies that female fertility and TSF evolved through genetic correlation with reproductive traits sexually selected in males. Paternal but not maternal heat stress reduced offspring fertility with no evidence for adaptive transgenerational plasticity among heat-exposed offspring, indicating that the observed effects may compound over generations. Our results suggest that trade-offs between fertility and traits increasing success in postcopulatory sexual selection can be revealed in harsh environments. This can put polyandrous species under immediate risk during extreme heat waves expected under future climate change.

Comparing the Predicted versus Realized Rate of Adaptation of Chamaecrista fasciculata to Climate Change

AbstractFisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) can be used in a quantitative genetics framework to predict the rate of adaptation in populations. Here, we estimated the capacity for a wild population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata to adapt to future environments and compared predicted and realized rates of adaptation. We planted pedigreed seeds from one population into three prairie reconstructions along an east-to-west decreasing precipitation gradient. The FTNS predicted adaptation at all sites, but we found a response to selection that was smaller at the home and westernmost sites and maladaptive at the middle site because of changes in the selective environment between generations. However, mean fitness of the progeny generation at the home and westernmost sites exceeded population replacement, which suggests that the environment was sufficiently favorable to promote population persistence. More studies employing the FTNS are needed to clarify the degree to which predictions of the rate of adaptation are realized and its utility in the conservation of populations at risk of extinction from climate change.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

How chromosomal inversions reorient the evolutionary process

Inversions are structural mutations that reverse the sequence of a chromosome segment and reduce the effective rate of recombination in the heterozygous state. They play a major role in adaptation, as well as in other evolutionary processes such as speciation. Although inversions have been studied since the 1920s, they remain difficult to investigate because the reduced recombination conferred by them strengthens the effects of drift and hitchhiking, which in turn can obscure signatures of selection. Nonetheless, numerous inversions have been found to be under selection. Given recent advances in population genetic theory and empirical study, here we review how different mechanisms of selection affect the evolution of inversions. A key difference between inversions and other mutations, such as single nucleotide variants, is that the fitness of an inversion may be affected by a larger number of frequently interacting processes. This considerably complicates the analysis of the causes underlying the evolution of inversions. We discuss the extent to which these mechanisms can be disentangled, and by which approach.

How density dependence, genetic erosion and the extinction vortex impact evolutionary rescue

Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity.

Comparative population genomics of manta rays has global implications for management

Understanding population connectivity and genetic diversity is of fundamental importance to conservation. However, in globally threatened marine megafauna, challenges remain due to their elusive nature and wide-ranging distributions. As overexploitation continues to threaten biodiversity across the globe, such knowledge gaps compromise both the suitability and effectiveness of management actions. Here, we use a comparative framework to investigate genetic differentiation and diversity of manta rays, one of the most iconic yet vulnerable groups of elasmobranchs on the planet. Despite their recent divergence, we show how oceanic manta rays (Mobula birostris) display significantly higher heterozygosity than reef manta rays (Mobula alfredi) and that M. birostris populations display higher connectivity worldwide. Through inferring modes of colonization, we reveal how both contemporary and historical forces have likely influenced these patterns, with important implications for population management. Our findings highlight the potential for fisheries to disrupt population dynamics at both local and global scales and therefore have direct relevance for international conservation of marine species.

Candidate genes under selection in song sparrows co-vary with climate and body mass in support of Bergmann's Rule

Ecogeographic rules denote spatial patterns in phenotype and environment that may reflect local adaptation as well as a species' capacity to adapt to change. To identify genes underlying Bergmann's Rule, which posits that spatial correlations of body mass and temperature reflect natural selection and local adaptation in endotherms, we compare 79 genomes from nine song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) subspecies that vary ~300% in body mass (17 - 50 g). Comparing large- and smaller-bodied subspecies revealed 9 candidate genes in three genomic regions associated with body mass. Further comparisons to the five smallest subspecies endemic to California revealed eight SNPs within four of the candidate genes (GARNL3, RALGPS1, ANGPTL2, and COL15A1) associated with body mass and varying as predicted by Bergmann's Rule. Our results support the hypothesis that co-variation in environment, body mass and genotype reflect the influence of natural selection on local adaptation and a capacity for contemporary evolution in this diverse species.

Low interspecific variation and no phylogenetic signal in additive genetic variance in wild bird and mammal populations

Evolutionary adaptation through genetic change requires genetic variation and is a key mechanism enabling species to persist in changing environments. Although a substantial body of work has focused on understanding how and why additive genetic variance (V A) differs among traits within species, we still know little about how they vary among species. Here we make a first attempt at testing for interspecific variation in two complementary measures of V A and the role of phylogeny in shaping this variation. To this end, we performed a phylogenetic comparative analysis using 1822 narrow-sense heritability (h 2) for 68 species of birds and mammals and 378 coefficients of additive genetic variance (CV A) estimates for 23 species. Controlling for within-species variation attributable to estimation method and trait type, we found some interspecific variation in h 2 (~15%) but not CV A. Although suggestive of interspecific variation in the importance of non-(additive) genetic sources of variance, sample sizes were insufficient to test this hypothesis directly. Additionally, although power was low, no phylogenetic signal was detected for either measure. Hence, while this suggests interspecific variation in V A is probably small, our understanding of interspecific variation in the adaptive potential of wild vertebrate populations is currently hampered by data limitations, a scarcity of CV A estimates and a measure of their uncertainty in particular.

A demo-genetic model shows how silviculture reduces natural density-dependent selection in tree populations

Biological production systems and conservation programs benefit from and should care for evolutionary processes. Developing evolution-oriented strategies requires knowledge of the evolutionary consequences of management across timescales. Here, we used an individual-based demo-genetic modelling approach to study the interactions and feedback between tree thinning, genetic evolution, and forest stand dynamics. The model combines processes that jointly drive survival and mating success-tree growth, competition and regeneration-with genetic variation of quantitative traits related to these processes. In various management and disturbance scenarios, the evolutionary rates predicted by the coupled demo-genetic model for a growth-related trait, vigor, fit within the range of empirical estimates found in the literature for wild plant and animal populations. We used this model to simulate non-selective silviculture and disturbance scenarios over four generations of trees. We characterized and quantified the effect of thinning frequencies and intensities and length of the management cycle on viability selection driven by competition and fecundity selection. The thinning regimes had a drastic long-term effect on the evolutionary rate of vigor over generations, potentially reaching 84% reduction, depending on management intensity, cycle length and disturbance regime. The reduction of genetic variance by viability selection within each generation was driven by changes in genotypic frequencies rather than by gene diversity, resulting in low-long-term erosion of the variance across generations, despite short-term fluctuations within generations. The comparison among silviculture and disturbance scenarios was qualitatively robust to assumptions on the genetic architecture of the trait. Thus, the evolutionary consequences of management result from the interference between human interventions and natural evolutionary processes. Non-selective thinning, as considered here, reduces the intensity of natural selection, while selective thinning (on tree size or other criteria) might reduce or reinforce it depending on the forester's tree choice and thinning intensity.

Fire-driven animal evolution in the Pyrocene

Fire regimes are a major agent of evolution in terrestrial animals. Changing fire regimes and the capacity for rapid evolution in wild animal populations suggests the potential for rapid, fire-driven adaptive animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Fire drives multiple modes of evolutionary change, including stabilizing, directional, disruptive, and fluctuating selection, and can strongly influence gene flow and genetic drift. Ongoing and future research in fire-driven animal evolution will benefit from further development of generalizable hypotheses, studies conducted in highly responsive taxa, and linking fire-adapted phenotypes to their underlying genetic basis. A better understanding of evolutionary responses to fire has the potential to positively influence conservation strategies that embrace evolutionary resilience to fire in the Pyrocene.

Contrasting whole-genome and reduced representation sequencing for population demographic and adaptive inference: an alpine mammal case study

Genomes capture the adaptive and demographic history of a species, but the choice of sequencing strategy and sample size can impact such inferences. We compared whole genome and reduced representation sequencing approaches to study the population demographic and adaptive signals of the North American mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). We applied the restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) approach to 254 individuals and whole genome resequencing (WGS) approach to 35 individuals across the species range at mid-level coverage (9X) and to 5 individuals at high coverage (30X). We used ANGSD to estimate the genotype likelihoods and estimated the effective population size (Ne), population structure, and explicitly modelled the demographic history with δaδi and MSMC2. The data sets were overall concordant in supporting a glacial induced vicariance and extremely low Ne in mountain goats. We evaluated a set of climatic variables and geographic location as predictors of genetic diversity using redundancy analysis. A moderate proportion of total variance (36% for WGS and 21% for RADseq data sets) was explained by geography and climate variables; both data sets support a large impact of drift and some degree of local adaptation. The empirical similarities of WGS and RADseq presented herein reassuringly suggest that both approaches will recover large demographic and adaptive signals in a population; however, WGS offers several advantages over RADseq, such as inferring adaptive processes and calculating runs-of-homozygosity estimates. Considering the predicted climate-induced changes in alpine environments and the genetically depauperate mountain goat, the long-term adaptive capabilities of this enigmatic species are questionable.

Trait-Specific Indirect Effects Underlie Variation in the Response of Spiders to Cannibalistic Social Partners

AbstractIn cannibalistic species, selection to avoid conspecifics may stem from the need to avoid being eaten or to avoid competition. Individuals may thus use conspecific cues to modulate their behavior to such threats. Yet the nature of variation for such cues remains elusive. Here, we use a half-sib/full-sib design to evaluate the contribution of (indirect) genetic or environmental effects to the behavioral response of the cannibalistic wolf spider Lycosa fasciiventris (Dufour, 1835) toward conspecific cues. Spiders showed variation in relative occupancy time, activity, and velocity on patches with or without conspecific cues, but direct genetic variance was found only for occupancy time. These three traits were correlated and could be lumped in a principal component: spiders spending more time in patches with conspecific cues moved less and more slowly in those areas. Genetic and/or environmental components of carapace width and weight loss in the social partner, which may reflect the quality and/or quantity of cues produced, were significantly correlated with this principal component, with larger partners causing focal individuals to move more slowly. Therefore, environmental and genetic trait variation in social partners may maintain trait diversity in focal individuals, even in the absence of direct genetic variation.

Contemporary changes in phenotypic variation, and the potential consequences for eco-evolutionary dynamics

Most studies assessing rates of phenotypic change focus on population mean trait values, whereas a largely overlooked additional component is changes in population trait variation. Theoretically, eco-evolutionary dynamics mediated by such changes in trait variation could be as important as those mediated by changes in trait means. To date, however, no study has comprehensively summarised how phenotypic variation is changing in contemporary populations. Here, we explore four questions using a large database: How do changes in trait variances compare to changes in trait means? Do different human disturbances have different effects on trait variance? Do different trait types have different effects on changes in trait variance? Do studies that established a genetic basis for trait change show different patterns from those that did not? We find that changes in variation are typically small; yet we also see some very large changes associated with particular disturbances or trait types. We close by interpreting and discussing the implications of our findings in the context of eco-evolutionary studies.

Same-sex sociosexual behaviour is widespread and heritable in male rhesus macaques

Numerous reports have documented the occurrence of same-sex sociosexual behaviour (SSB) across animal species. However, the distribution of the behaviour within a species needs to be studied to test hypotheses describing its evolution and maintenance, in particular whether the behaviour is heritable and can therefore evolve by natural selection. Here we collected detailed observations across 3 yr of social and mounting behaviour of 236 male semi-wild rhesus macaques, which we combined with a pedigree dating back to 1938, to show that SSB is both repeatable (19.35%) and heritable (6.4%). Demographic factors (age and group structure) explained SSB variation only marginally. Furthermore, we found a positive genetic correlation between same-sex mounter and mountee activities, indicating a common basis to different forms of SSB. Finally, we found no evidence of fitness costs to SSB, but show instead that the behaviour mediated coalitionary partnerships that have been linked to improved reproductive success. Together, our results demonstrate that SSB is frequent in rhesus macaques, can evolve, and is not costly, indicating that SSB may be a common feature of primate reproductive ecology.

Conceptual and empirical bridges between micro- and macroevolution

Explaining broad molecular, phenotypic and species biodiversity patterns necessitates a unifying framework spanning multiple evolutionary scales. Here we argue that although substantial effort has been made to reconcile microevolution and macroevolution, much work remains to identify the links between biological processes at play. We highlight four major questions of evolutionary biology whose solutions require conceptual bridges between micro and macroevolution. We review potential avenues for future research to establish how mechanisms at one scale (drift, mutation, migration, selection) translate to processes at the other scale (speciation, extinction, biogeographic dispersal) and vice versa. We propose ways in which current comparative methods to infer molecular evolution, phenotypic evolution and species diversification could be improved to specifically address these questions. We conclude that researchers are in a better position than ever before to build a synthesis to understand how microevolutionary dynamics unfold over millions of years.

Hidden genetic variation in plasticity provides the potential for rapid adaptation to novel environments

Rapid environmental change is forcing populations into environments where plasticity will no longer maintain fitness. When populations are exposed to novel environments, evolutionary theory predicts that genetic variation in fitness will increase and should be associated with genetic differences in plasticity. If true, then genetic variation in plasticity can increase adaptive potential in novel environments, and population persistence via evolutionary rescue is more likely. To test whether genetic variation in fitness increases in novel environments and is associated with plasticity, we transplanted 8149 clones of 314 genotypes of a Sicilian daisy (Senecio chrysanthemifolius) within and outside its native range, and quantified genetic variation in fitness, and plasticity in leaf traits and gene expression. Although mean fitness declined by 87% in the novel environment, genetic variance in fitness increased threefold and was correlated with plasticity in leaf traits. High fitness genotypes showed greater plasticity in gene expression, but lower plasticity in most leaf traits. Interestingly, genotypes with the highest fitness in the novel environment had the lowest fitness at the native site. These results suggest that standing genetic variation in plasticity could help populations to persist and adapt to novel environments, despite remaining hidden in native environments.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.

The long-lasting legacy of reproduction: lifetime reproductive success shapes expected genetic contributions of humans after 10 generations

An individual's lifetime reproductive success (LRS) measures its realized genetic contributions to the next generation, but how well does it predict this over longer periods? Here we use human genealogical data to estimate expected individual genetic contributions (IGC) and quantify the degree to which LRS, relative to other fitness proxies, predicts IGC over longer periods. This allows an identification of the life-history stages that are most important in shaping variation in IGC. We use historical genealogical data from two non-isolated local populations in Switzerland to estimate the stabilized IGC for 2230 individuals approximately 10 generations after they were born. We find that LRS explains 30% less variation in IGC than the best predictor of IGC, the number of grandoffspring. However, albeit less precise than the number of grandoffspring, we show that LRS does provide an unbiased prediction of IGC. Furthermore, it predicts IGC better than lifespan, and accounting for offspring survival to adulthood does not improve the explanatory power. Overall, our findings demonstrate the value of human genealogical data to evolutionary biology and suggest that reproduction-more than lifespan or offspring survival-impacts the long-term genetic contributions of historic humans, even in a population with appreciable migration.

Fluctuating selection and the determinants of genetic variation

Recent studies of cosmopolitan Drosophila populations have found hundreds to thousands of genetic loci with seasonally fluctuating allele frequencies, bringing temporally fluctuating selection to the forefront of the historical debate surrounding the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations. Numerous mechanisms have been explored in this longstanding area of research, but these exciting empirical findings have prompted several recent theoretical and experimental studies that seek to better understand the drivers, dynamics, and genome-wide influence of fluctuating selection. In this review, we evaluate the latest evidence for multilocus fluctuating selection in Drosophila and other taxa, highlighting the role of potential genetic and ecological mechanisms in maintaining these loci and their impacts on neutral genetic variation.

The dynamic adaptive landscape of cetacean body size

Adaptive landscapes are central to evolutionary theory, forming a conceptual bridge between micro- and macroevolution.^1,2,3,4 Evolution by natural selection across an adaptive landscape should drive lineages toward fitness peaks, shaping the distribution of phenotypic variation within and among clades over evolutionary timescales.⁵ The location and breadth of these peaks in phenotypic space can also evolve,⁴ but whether phylogenetic comparative methods can detect such patterns has largely remained unexplored.⁶ Here, we characterize the global and local adaptive landscape for total body length in cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and relatives), a trait that spans 5 orders of magnitude, across their ∼53 million year evolutionary history. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we analyze shifts in long-term mean body length⁷ and directional changes in average trait values⁸ for 345 living and fossil cetacean taxa. Remarkably, we find that the global macroevolutionary adaptive landscape of cetacean body length is relatively flat, with very few peak shifts occurring after cetaceans entered the oceans. Local peaks are more numerous and manifest as trends along branches linked to specific adaptations. These results contrast with previous studies using only extant taxa,⁹ highlighting the vital role of fossil data for understanding macroevolution.^10,11,12 Our results indicate that adaptive peaks are dynamic and are associated with subzones of local adaptations, creating moving targets for species adaptation. In addition, we identify limits in our ability to detect some evolutionary patterns and processes and suggest that multiple approaches are required to characterize complex hierarchical patterns of adaptation in deep time.

Addressing prey naivety in native mammals by accelerating selection for antipredator traits

Harnessing natural selection to improve conservation outcomes is a recent concept in ecology and evolutionary biology and a potentially powerful tool in species conservation. One possible application is the use of natural selection to improve antipredator responses of mammal species that are threatened by predation from novel predators. We investigated whether long-term exposure of an evolutionary naïve prey species to a novel predator would lead to phenotypic changes in a suite of physical and behavioral traits. We exposed a founder population of 353 burrowing bettongs (Bettongia lesueur) to feral cats (Felis catus) over 5 years and compared the physical and behavioral traits of this population (including offspring) to a control (non-predator exposed) population. We used selection analysis to investigate whether changes in the traits of bettongs were likely due to phenotypic plasticity or natural selection. We also quantified selection in both populations before and during major population crashes caused by drought (control) and high predation pressure (predator-exposed). Results showed that predator-exposed bettongs had longer flight initiation distances, larger hind feet, and larger heads than control bettongs. Trait divergence began soon after exposure and continued to intensify over time for flight initiation distance and hind foot length relative to control bettongs. Selection analysis found indicators of selection for larger hind feet and longer head length in predator-exposed populations. Results of a common garden experiment showed that the progeny of predator-exposed bettongs had larger feet than control bettongs. Results suggest that long-term, low-level exposure of naïve prey to novel predators can drive phenotypic changes that may assist with future conservation efforts.

Evolution of the germline mutation rate across vertebrates

The germline mutation rate determines the pace of genome evolution and is an evolving parameter itself¹. However, little is known about what determines its evolution, as most studies of mutation rates have focused on single species with different methodologies². Here we quantify germline mutation rates across vertebrates by sequencing and comparing the high-coverage genomes of 151 parent-offspring trios from 68 species of mammals, fishes, birds and reptiles. We show that the per-generation mutation rate varies among species by a factor of 40, with mutation rates being higher for males than for females in mammals and birds, but not in reptiles and fishes. The generation time, age at maturity and species-level fecundity are the key life-history traits affecting this variation among species. Furthermore, species with higher long-term effective population sizes tend to have lower mutation rates per generation, providing support for the drift barrier hypothesis³. The exceptionally high yearly mutation rates of domesticated animals, which have been continually selected on fecundity traits including shorter generation times, further support the importance of generation time in the evolution of mutation rates. Overall, our comparative analysis of pedigree-based mutation rates provides ecological insights on the mutation rate evolution in vertebrates.

Genomic signatures of inbreeding depression for a threatened Aotearoa New Zealand passerine

For small and isolated populations, the increased chance of mating between related individuals can result in a substantial reduction in individual and population fitness. Despite the increasing availability of genomic data to measure inbreeding accurately across the genome, inbreeding depression studies for threatened species are still scarce due to the difficulty of measuring fitness in the wild. Here, we investigate inbreeding and inbreeding depression for the extensively monitored Tiritiri Mātangi island population of a threatened Aotearoa New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta). First, using a custom 45 k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, we explore genomic inbreeding patterns by inferring homozygous segments across the genome. Although all individuals have similar levels of ancient inbreeding, highly inbred individuals are affected by recent inbreeding, which can probably be explained by bottleneck effects such as habitat loss after European arrival and their translocation to the island in the 1990s. Second, we investigate genomic inbreeding effects on fitness, measured as lifetime reproductive success, and its three components, juvenile survival, adult annual survival and annual reproductive success, in 363 hihi. We find that global inbreeding significantly affects juvenile survival but none of the remaining fitness traits. Finally, we employ a genome-wide association approach to test the locus-specific effects of inbreeding on fitness, and identify 13 SNPs significantly associated with lifetime reproductive success. Our findings suggest that inbreeding depression does impact hihi, but at different genomic scales for different traits, and that purging has therefore failed to remove all variants with deleterious effects from this population of conservation concern.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' ( I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse of I and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction of I is caused by trait variation. Thus, I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceed I , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component of I is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realised I is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation in I across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence of I on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in ∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Kinship and similarity drive coordination of breeding-group choice in male spotted hyenas

When and where animals reproduce influences the social, demographic and genetic properties of the groups and populations they live in. We examined the extent to which male spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) coordinate their breeding-group choice. We tested whether their propensity to settle in the same group is shaped by passive processes driven by similarities in their socio-ecological background and genotype or by an adaptive process driven by kin selection. We compared the choices of 148 pairs of same-cohort males that varied in similarity and kinship. We found strong support for both processes. Coordination was highest (70% of pairs) for littermates, who share most cumulative similarity, lower (36%) among peers born in the same group to different mothers, and lowest (7%) among strangers originating from different groups and mothers. Consistent with the kin selection hypothesis, the propensity to choose the same group was density dependent for full siblings and close kin, but not distant kin. Coordination increased as the number of breeding females and male competitors in social groups increased, i.e. when costs of kin competition over mates decreased and benefits of kin cooperation increased. Our results contrast with the traditional view that breeding-group choice and dispersal are predominantly solitary processes.

The challenge of demonstrating contemporary natural selection on polygenic quantitative traits in the wild

In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Ashraf et al. (2022) apply genomic prediction methods, devised by breeders to inform artificial selection, to understand the genetic component of variation in highly polygenic quantitative traits in Soay sheep (Figure 1). These methods have allowed them to investigate the effects of contemporary natural selection on genetic variation underlying these traits in the wild (Hunter et al., 2022). Genomic prediction approaches promise to enhance our understanding of the evolution of highly polygenic quantitative traits in the wild and may allow us to document concrete examples of their natural selection in real time in systems that would otherwise be intractable.

The Unusual Value of Long-Term Studies of Individuals: The Example of the Isle of Rum Red Deer Project

Long-term studies of individuals enable incisive investigations of questions across ecology and evolution. Here, we illustrate this claim by reference to our long-term study of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland. This project has established many of the characteristics of social organization, selection, and population ecology typical of large, polygynous, seasonally breeding mammals, with wider implications for our understanding of sexual selection and the evolution of sex differences, as well as for their population dynamics and population management. As molecular genetic techniques have developed, the project has pivoted to investigate evolutionary genetic questions, also breaking new ground in this field. With ongoing advances in genomics and statistical approaches and the development of increasingly sophisticated ways to assay new phenotypic traits, the questions that long-term studies such as the red deer study can answer become both broader and ever more sophisticated. They also offer powerful means of understanding the effects of ongoing climate change on wild populations.

Variation in shape and consistency of selection between populations of the threatened Hihi (Notiomystis cincta)

The shape and intensity of natural selection can vary between years, potentially resulting in a chronic reduction of fitness as individuals need to track a continually changing optimum of fitness (i.e., a "lag load"). In endangered species, often characterized by small population size, the lack of genetic diversity is expected to limit the response to this constant need to adjust to fluctuating selection, increasing the fitness burden and thus the risk of extinction. Here, we use long-term monitoring data to assess whether the type of selection for a key fitness trait (i.e., lay date) differs between two reintroduced populations of a threatened passerine bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We apply recent statistical developments to test for the presence or absence of fluctuation in selection in both the Tiritiri Mātangi Island and the Kārori sanctuary populations. Our results support the presence of stabilizing selection in Tiritiri Mātangi with a potential moving optimum for lay date. In Kārori our results favour a regime of directional selection. Although the shape of selection may differ, for both populations an earlier lay date generally increases fitness in both environments. Further, the moving optimum models of lay date on Tiritiri Mātangi, suggesting that selection varies between years, imply a substantial lag load in addition to the fitness burden caused by the population laying too late. Our results highlight the importance of characterizing the form and temporal variation of selection for each population to predict the effects of environmental change and to inform management.

Challenges in quantifying genome erosion for conservation

Massive defaunation and high extinction rates have become characteristic of the Anthropocene. Genetic effects of population decline can lead populations into an extinction vortex, where declining populations show lower genetic fitness, in turn leading to lower populations still. The lower genetic fitness in a declining population due to a shrinking gene pool is known as genetic erosion. Three different types of genetic erosion are highlighted in this review: overall homozygosity, genetic load and runs of homozygosity (ROH), which are indicative of inbreeding. The ability to quantify genetic erosion could be a very helpful tool for conservationists, as it can provide them with an objective, quantifiable measure to use in the assessment of species at risk of extinction. The link between conservation status and genetic erosion should become more apparent. Currently, no clear correlation can be observed between the current conservation status and genetic erosion. However, the high quantities of genetic erosion in wild populations, especially in those species dealing with habitat fragmentation and habitat decline, may be early signs of deteriorating populations. Whole genome sequencing data is the way forward to quantify genetic erosion. Extra screening steps for genetic load and hybridization can be included, since they could potentially have great impact on population fitness. This way, the information yielded from genetic sequence data can provide conservationists with an objective genetic method in the assessment of species at risk of extinction. However, the great complexity of genome erosion quantification asks for consensus and bridging science and its applications, which remains challenging.

Genetic, maternal, and environmental influences on sociality in a pedigreed primate population

Various aspects of sociality in mammals (e.g., dyadic connectedness) are linked with measures of biological fitness (e.g., longevity). How within- and between-individual variation in relevant social traits arises in uncontrolled wild populations is challenging to determine but is crucial for understanding constraints on the evolution of sociality. We use an advanced statistical method, known as the 'animal model', which incorporates pedigree information, to look at social, genetic, and environmental influences on sociality in a long-lived wild primate. We leverage a longitudinal database spanning 20 years of observation on individually recognized white-faced capuchin monkeys (Cebus capucinus imitator), with a multi-generational pedigree. We analyze two measures of spatial association, using repeat sampling of 376 individuals (mean: 53.5 months per subject, range: 6-185 months per subject). Conditioned on the effects of age, sex, group size, seasonality, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases, we show low to moderate long-term repeatability (across years) of the proportion of time spent social (posterior mode [95% Highest Posterior Density interval]: 0.207 [0.169, 0.265]) and of average number of partners (0.144 [0.113, 0.181]) (latent scale). Most of this long-term repeatability could be explained by modest heritability (h²_social: 0.152 [0.094, 0.207]; h²_partners: 0.113 [0.076, 0.149]) with small long-term maternal effects (m²_social: 0.000 [0.000, 0.045]; m²_partners: 0.000 [0.000, 0.041]). Our models capture the majority of variance in our behavioral traits, with much of the variance explained by temporally changing factors, such as group of residence, highlighting potential limits to the evolvability of our trait due to social and environmental constraints.

How Can We Resolve Lewontin's Paradox?

We discuss the genetic, demographic, and selective forces that are likely to be at play in restricting observed levels of DNA sequence variation in natural populations to a much smaller range of values than would be expected from the distribution of census population sizes alone-Lewontin's Paradox. While several processes that have previously been strongly emphasized must be involved, including the effects of direct selection and genetic hitchhiking, it seems unlikely that they are sufficient to explain this observation without contributions from other factors. We highlight a potentially important role for the less-appreciated contribution of population size change; specifically, the likelihood that many species and populations may be quite far from reaching the relatively high equilibrium diversity values that would be expected given their current census sizes.

How full is the evolutionary fuel tank?

A meta-analysis quantifies the heritable genetic variance in fitness-the fuel of evolution.