Modeling the dynamic relationship between HIV and the risk of drug-resistant tuberculosis

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB. We used genomic and demographic data to parameterize a mathematical model estimating long-term health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in 2022 USD ($) for each treatment strategy for patients 15 years and older diagnosed with pulmonary RR-TB in Moldova, a country with a high burden of TB drug resistance. For each individual, we simulated the natural history of TB and associated treatment outcomes, as well as the process of acquiring resistance to each of 12 anti-TB drugs. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM was cost-effective. This strategy was estimated to reduce lifetime costs by $3,366 (95% UI: [1,465, 5,742] p < 0.001) per individual, with a nonsignificant change in QALYs (-0.06; 95% UI: [-0.49, 0.03] p = 0.790). For those stopping moxifloxacin under the BPaLM regimen, continuing with BPaL plus clofazimine (BPaLC) provided more QALYs at lower cost than continuing with BPaL alone. Strategies based on 6 months of BPaLM had at least a 93% chance of being cost-effective, so long as BPaLC was continued in the event of stopping moxifloxacin. BPaLM for 6 months also reduced the average time spent with TB resistant to amikacin, bedaquiline, clofazimine, cycloserine, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide, while it increased the average time spent with TB resistant to delamanid and pretomanid. Sensitivity analyses showed 6 months of BPaLM to be cost-effective across a broad range of values for the relative effectiveness of BPaLM, and the proportion of the cohort with FQ-R. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM would be expected to save Moldova's national TB program budget $7.1 million (95% UI: [1.3 million, 15.4 million] p = 0.002) over the 5-year period from implementation. Our analysis did not account for all possible interactions between specific drugs with regard to treatment outcomes, resistance acquisition, or the consequences of specific types of severe adverse events, nor did we model how the intervention may affect TB transmission dynamics.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to standard of care, longer regimens, the implementation of the 6-month BPaLM regimen could improve the cost-effectiveness of care for individuals diagnosed with RR-TB, particularly in settings with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. Further research may be warranted to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of shorter RR-TB regimens across settings with varied drug-resistant TB burdens and national income levels.

Mathematical models of drug-resistant tuberculosis lack bacterial heterogeneity: A systematic review

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) threatens progress in the control of TB. Mathematical models are increasingly being used to guide public health decisions on managing both antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and TB. It is important to consider bacterial heterogeneity in models as it can have consequences for predictions of resistance prevalence, which may affect decision-making. We conducted a systematic review of published mathematical models to determine the modelling landscape and to explore methods for including bacterial heterogeneity. Our first objective was to identify and analyse the general characteristics of mathematical models of DR-mycobacteria, including M. tuberculosis. The second objective was to analyse methods of including bacterial heterogeneity in these models. We had different definitions of heterogeneity depending on the model level. For between-host models of mycobacterium, heterogeneity was defined as any model where bacteria of the same resistance level were further differentiated. For bacterial population models, heterogeneity was defined as having multiple distinct resistant populations. The search was conducted following PRISMA guidelines in five databases, with studies included if they were mechanistic or simulation models of DR-mycobacteria. We identified 195 studies modelling DR-mycobacteria, with most being dynamic transmission models of non-treatment intervention impact in M. tuberculosis (n = 58). Studies were set in a limited number of specific countries, and 44% of models (n = 85) included only a single level of "multidrug-resistance (MDR)". Only 23 models (8 between-host) included any bacterial heterogeneity. Most of these also captured multiple antibiotic-resistant classes (n = 17), but six models included heterogeneity in bacterial populations resistant to a single antibiotic. Heterogeneity was usually represented by different fitness values for bacteria resistant to the same antibiotic (61%, n = 14). A large and growing body of mathematical models of DR-mycobacterium is being used to explore intervention impact to support policy as well as theoretical explorations of resistance dynamics. However, the majority lack bacterial heterogeneity, suggesting that important evolutionary effects may be missed.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the correlation between HIV infection and multidrug-resistance tuberculosis

Background

The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in HIV-positive people poses a significant challenge to international efforts to eradicate tuberculosis (TB). Many studies found conflicting results when examining the correlation between HIV and MDR-TB. The purpose of the present investigation was to comprehensively review the literature on the association between HIV infection and MDR-TB in order to evaluate the impact of HIV on MDR-TB worldwide.

Methods

Utilizing the databases PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect, studies published between January 2000 and March 2023 that are eligible for meta-analysis were selected. Using the random-effects model, the aggregated odds ratio of the empirical relationship between HIV and MDR-TB was calculated, along with a confidence interval ranging from 0 to 95 %. Examining the asymmetry of the funnel plot and utilizing Egger's and Begg's test, the possibility of publication bias was investigated. The extent of heterogeneity was determined using the I2 statistics.

Results

Through a database search, we identified 1214 studies, from which we ultimately selected 15 studies involving 9667 patients. The odds ratio of 2.78 (95 % confidence interval: 1.07-7.20) between HIV/AIDS and MDR-TB indicates a significant positive correlation. Tau 2 = 3.46, chi 2 = 1440.46, df = 14, I2 = 99.0 %, z = 2.10, and p 0.05 indicate that there is substantial heterogeneity among pooled studies. Since I2 is 99 % (>50 %), a random effect model was employed. The percentage of multidrug-resistant HIV-positive patients across all included studies follows a normal distribution, as shown by a Box and whisker plot with a symmetric skewness and a mesokurtic tail and a scatter plot with a significant R2 value below 1 [R2 = 0.2476] showed the positive correlation between multidrug resistance and HIV infection.

Conclusion

HIV infection increases MDR-TB risk, and the preceding pooled analysis showed an increased risk trend. Thus, MDR-TB, especially in HIV-positive patients, requires early case detection, quality-assured bacteriology diagnosis, and an effective infection control program.

Quantitative Assessment of a Dual Epidemic Caused by Tuberculosis and HIV in the Philippines

Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are the two major public health emergencies in the Philippines. The country is ranked fourth worldwide in TB incidence cases despite national efforts and initiatives to mitigate the disease. Concurrently, the Philippines has the fastest-growing HIV epidemic in Asia and the Pacific region. The TB-HIV dual epidemic forms a lethal combination enhancing each other's progress, driving the deterioration of immune responses. In order to understand and describe the transmission dynamics and epidemiological patterns of the co-infection, a compartmental model for TB-HIV is developed. A class of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who did not know their HIV status is incorporated into the model. These unaware PLHIV who do not seek medical treatment are potential sources of new HIV infections that could significantly influence the disease transmission dynamics. Sensitivity analysis using the partial rank correlation coefficient is performed to assess model parameters that are influential to the output of interests. The model is calibrated using available Philippine data on TB, HIV, and TB-HIV. Parameters that are identified include TB and HIV transmission rates, progression rates from exposed to active TB, and from TB-latent with HIV to active infectious TB with HIV in the AIDS stage. Uncertainty analysis is performed to identify the degree of accuracy of the estimates. Simulations predict an alarming increase of 180% and 194% in new HIV and TB-HIV infections in 2025, respectively, relative to 2019 data. These projections underscore an ongoing health crisis in the Philippines that calls for a combined and collective effort by the government and the public to take action against the lethal combination of TB and HIV.

The potential impact of preventive therapy against tuberculosis in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling approach

BACKGROUND

The prevention of tuberculosis (TB) is key for accelerating current, slow declines in TB burden. The 2018 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on eligibility for preventive therapy to treat latent TB infection (LTBI) include people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV), household contacts of TB patients including children, and those with clinical conditions including silicosis, dialysis, transplantation, etc. and other country-specific groups. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of full implementation of these guidelines in the WHO South-East Asian (SEA) Region, which bears the largest burden of TB and LTBI amongst the WHO regions.

METHODS

We developed mathematical models of TB transmission dynamics, calibrated individually to each of the 11 countries in the region. We modelled preventive therapy in the absence of other TB interventions. As an alternative comparator, reflecting ongoing developments in TB control in the region, we also simulated improvements in the treatment cascade for active TB, including private sector engagement and intensified case-finding. Relative to both scenarios, for each country in the region, we projected TB cases and deaths averted between 2020 and 2030, by full uptake of preventive therapy, defined as comprehensive coverage amongst eligible populations as per WHO guidelines, and assuming outcomes consistent with clinical trials. We also performed sensitivity analysis to illustrate impact under less-than-optimal conditions.

RESULTS

At the regional level, full uptake of preventive therapy amongst identified risk groups would reduce annual incidence rates in 2030 by 8.30% (95% CrI 6.48-10.83) relative to 2015, in the absence of any additional interventions. If implemented against a backdrop of improved TB treatment cascades, preventive therapy would achieve an incremental 6.93 percentage points (95% CrI 5.81-8.51) of reduction in annual incidence rates, compared to 2015. At the regional level, the numbers of individuals with latent TB infection that need to be treated to avert 1 TB case is 64 (95% CrI 55-74). Sensitivity analysis illustrates that results for impact are roughly proportional to 'effective coverage' (the product of actual coverage and effectiveness of the regimen).

CONCLUSIONS

Full implementation of WHO guidelines is important for ending TB in the SEA Region. Although future strategies will need to be expanded to the population level, to achieve large declines in TB incidence, the uptake of current tools can offer a valuable step in this direction.

The relative fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a modelling study of household transmission in Peru

The relative fitness of drug-resistant versus susceptible bacteria in an environment dictates resistance prevalence. Estimates for the relative fitness of resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains are highly heterogeneous and mostly derived from in vitro experiments. Measuring fitness in the field allows us to determine how the environment influences the spread of resistance. We designed a household structured, stochastic mathematical model to estimate the fitness costs associated with multidrug resistance (MDR) carriage in Mtb in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013. By fitting the model to data from a large prospective cohort study of TB disease in household contacts, we estimated the fitness, relative to susceptible strains with a fitness of 1, of MDR-Mtb to be 0.32 (95% credible interval: 0.15–0.62) or 0.38 (0.24–0.61), if only transmission or progression to disease, respectively, was affected. The relative fitness of MDR-Mtb increased to 0.56 (0.42–0.72) when the fitness cost influenced both transmission and progression to disease equally. We found the average relative fitness of MDR-Mtb circulating within households in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013 to be significantly lower than concurrent susceptible Mtb. If these fitness levels do not change, then existing TB control programmes are likely to keep MDR-TB prevalence at current levels in Lima, Peru.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Whole genome sequencing for M/XDR tuberculosis surveillance and for resistance testing

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) can help to relate Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes to one another to assess genetic relatedness and infer the likelihood of transmission between cases. The same sequence data are now increasingly being used to predict drug resistance and susceptibility. Controlling the spread of tuberculosis and providing patients with the correct treatment are central to the World Health Organization's target to 'End TB' by 2035, for which the global prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis remains one of the main obstacles to success. So far, WGS has been applied largely to drug-susceptible strains for the purposes of understanding transmission, leaving a number of analytical considerations before transferring what has been learnt from drug-susceptible disease to drug-resistant tuberculosis. We discuss these potential problems here, alongside some of the challenges to characterizing the Mycobacterium tuberculosis 'resistome'-the optimal knowledge-base required for WGS-based assays to successfully direct individualized treatment regimens through the prediction of drug resistance and susceptibility in the future.

Impact of HIV co-infection on the evolution and transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

The tuberculosis (TB) epidemic is fueled by a parallel Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic, but it remains unclear to what extent the HIV epidemic has been a driver for drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Here we assess the impact of HIV co-infection on the emergence of resistance and transmission of Mtb in the largest outbreak of multidrug-resistant TB in South America to date. By combining Bayesian evolutionary analyses and the reconstruction of transmission networks utilizing a new model optimized for TB, we find that HIV co-infection does not significantly affect the transmissibility or the mutation rate of Mtb within patients and was not associated with increased emergence of resistance within patients. Our results indicate that the HIV epidemic serves as an amplifier of TB outbreaks by providing a reservoir of susceptible hosts, but that HIV co-infection is not a direct driver for the emergence and transmission of resistant strains.

The Distribution of Fitness Costs of Resistance-Conferring Mutations Is a Key Determinant for the Future Burden of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Model-Based Analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance poses a serious challenge for the control of tuberculosis in many settings. It is well established that the expected future trend in resistance depends on the reproductive fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, the variability in fitness between strains with different resistance-conferring mutations has been largely ignored when making these predictions.

METHODS

We developed a novel approach for incorporating the variable fitness costs of drug resistance-conferring mutations and for tracking this distribution of fitness costs over time within a transmission model. We used this approach to describe the effects of realistic fitness cost distributions on the future prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis.

RESULTS

The shape of the distribution of fitness costs was a strong predictor of the long-term prevalence of resistance. While, as expected, lower average fitness costs of drug resistance-conferring mutations were associated with more severe epidemics of drug-resistant tuberculosis, fitness distributions with greater variance also led to higher levels of drug resistance. For example, compared to simulations in which the fitness cost of resistance was fixed, introducing a realistic amount of variance resulted in a 40% increase in prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis after 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The differences in the fitness costs associated with drug resistance-conferring mutations are a key determinant of the future burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Future studies that can better establish the range of fitness costs associated with drug resistance-conferring mutations will improve projections and thus facilitate better public health planning efforts.

Antibiotic resistance mechanisms in M. tuberculosis: an update

Treatment of tuberculosis (TB) has been a therapeutic challenge because of not only the naturally high resistance level of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to antibiotics but also the newly acquired mutations that confer further resistance. Currently standardized regimens require patients to daily ingest up to four drugs under direct observation of a healthcare worker for a period of 6-9 months. Although they are quite effective in treating drug susceptible TB, these lengthy treatments often lead to patient non-adherence, which catalyzes for the emergence of M. tuberculosis strains that are increasingly resistant to the few available anti-TB drugs. The rapid evolution of M. tuberculosis, from mono-drug-resistant to multiple drug-resistant, extensively drug-resistant and most recently totally drug-resistant strains, is threatening to make TB once again an untreatable disease if new therapeutic options do not soon become available. Here, I discuss the molecular mechanisms by which M. tuberculosis confers its profound resistance to antibiotics. This knowledge may help in developing novel strategies for weakening drug resistance, thus enhancing the potency of available antibiotics against both drug susceptible and resistant M. tuberculosis strains.

Drug resistance characteristics and cluster analysis of M. tuberculosis in Chinese patients with multiple episodes of anti-tuberculosis treatment

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) patients with multiple episodes of anti-TB treatment represent an important source of TB transmission, as well as a serious threat to the control of drug resistant TB, due to the high risk of multidrug and extensively drug resistance (MDR/XDR) and elongating infectiousness of this patient group. In this study we analyzed the possible risk of development and transmission of MDR and XDR in TB patients with multiple episodes of previous treatment history.

Methods

The study subjects were pulmonary TB patients who had at least two episodes of previous anti-TB treatment. A total of 166 eligible patients were identified from 10 counties/districts distributed in east, west, north, south and central China. Drug susceptibility test (DST) was performed by proportion method on LJ-media for the 1st line anti-TB drugs and a line probe assay was used to detect mutations related to resistance of the key 2nd-line drugs. Genotyping of M. tuberculosis (Mtb) was performed with MIRU-VNTR and Spoligotyping.

Results

Resistances to 1st-line drugs was observed in 122 (73.5 %) of the 166 Mtb isolates with 97 (58.4 %) being MDR-TB. Mutations relevant to 2nd-line drug resistance was seen in 63 isolates, including 35 MDR-TB isolates (30 pre-XDR, 5 XDR-TB). The Spoligotyping revealed 83.1 % Mtb isolates belonged to the Beijing family. The MIRU-VNTR based genotyping revealed 32 (19.3 %) of patients were infected with more than one strain. The number of previous TB treatment episode was found being significantly associated with the risk of MDR-TB and XDR-TB. Among the remaining 134 patients infected with a single Mtb strain, MIRU-VNTR revealed a high homogeneity of strain especially within Beijing family despite the polymorphic variations along with geographic locations.

Conclusions

The high genetic relatedness and risk of MDR-TB and subsequent pre-XDR and XDR-TB among repeatedly treated patients suggest the establishment of M/XDR Mtb in this specific patient population. It highlights the urgent needs of providing DST of both 1st- and 2nd-line drugs before and during the medication in China’s MDR-TB control program. Furthermore, the possibility of infection with multiple strains should also be considered to be associated with the drug resistance, which calls for the modification of treatment regimen.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1331-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Potential Impact of Up-Front Drug Sensitivity Testing on India's Epidemic of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis

Background

In India as elsewhere, multi-drug resistance (MDR) poses a serious challenge in the control of tuberculosis (TB). The End TB strategy, recently approved by the world health assembly, aims to reduce TB deaths by 95% and new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035. A key pillar of this approach is early diagnosis of tuberculosis, including use of higher-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST). Despite limitations of current laboratory assays, universal access to rapid DST could become more feasible with the advent of new and emerging technologies. Here we use a mathematical model of TB transmission, calibrated to the TB epidemic in India, to explore the potential impact of a major national scale-up of rapid DST. To inform key parameters in a clinical setting, we take GeneXpert as an example of a technology that could enable such scale-up. We draw from a recent multi-centric demonstration study conducted in India that involved upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of all TB suspects.

Results

We find that widespread, public-sector deployment of high-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal DST appropriately linked with treatment could substantially impact MDR-TB in India. Achieving 75% access over 3 years amongst all cases being diagnosed for TB in the public sector alone could avert over 180,000 cases of MDR-TB (95% CI 44187 – 317077 cases) between 2015 and 2025. Sufficiently wide deployment of Xpert could, moreover, turn an increasing MDR epidemic into a diminishing one. Synergistic effects were observed with assumptions of simultaneously improving MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Our results illustrate the potential impact of new and emerging technologies that enable widespread, timely DST, and the important effect that universal rapid DST in the public sector can have on the MDR-TB epidemic in India.

The potential impact of coinfection on antimicrobial chemotherapy and drug resistance

Across a range of pathogens, resistance to chemotherapy is a growing problem in both public health and animal health. Despite the ubiquity of coinfection, and its potential effects on within-host biology, the role played by coinfecting pathogens on the evolution of resistance and efficacy of antimicrobial chemotherapy is rarely considered. In this review, we provide an overview of the mechanisms of interaction of coinfecting pathogens, ranging from immune modulation and resource modulation, to drug interactions. We discuss their potential implications for the evolution of resistance, providing evidence in the rare cases where it is available. Overall, our review indicates that the impact of coinfection has the potential to be considerable, suggesting that this should be taken into account when designing antimicrobial drug treatments.

First insights into circulating Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineages and drug resistance in Guinea

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First insight into resistance levels and genetic diversity of TB in Guinea.

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Rapid expansion of drug-resistance prone LAM10 Cameroon family.

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Population structure reveals less ‘ancestral’ TB than in surrounding countries.

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Knowledge of genetic diversity is relevant for tuberculosis control programs.

In this study we assessed first-line anti-tuberculosis drug resistance and the genotypic distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) isolates that had been collected from consecutive new tuberculosis patients enrolled in two clinical trials conducted in Guinea between 2005 and 2010. Among the total 359 MTBC strains that were analyzed in this study, 22.8% were resistant to at least one of the first line anti-tuberculosis drugs, including 2.5% multidrug resistance and 17.5% isoniazid resistance, with or without other drugs. In addition, further characterization of isolates from a subset of the two trials (n = 184) revealed a total of 80 different spoligotype patterns, 29 “orphan” and 51 shared patterns. We identified the six major MTBC lineages of human relevance, with predominance of the Euro-American lineage. In total, 132 (71.7%) of the strains were genotypically clustered, and further analysis (using the DESTUS model) suggesting significantly faster spread of LAM10_CAM family (p = 0.00016). In conclusion, our findings provide a first insight into drug resistance and the population structure of the MTBC in Guinea, with relevance for public health scientists in tuberculosis control programs.

How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.

Programmatic and ethical challenges in the implementation of treatment-as-prevention in the context of HIV and drug-resistant tuberculosis co-infection in sub-Saharan Africa

There is limited literature on programmatic challenges in the implementation of a treatment-as-prevention (TasP) strategy among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) co-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper highlights specific programmatic challenges surrounding the implementation of this strategy among HIV and DR-TB co-infected populations in SSA. In SSA, limitations in administrative, human and financial resources and poor health infrastructure, as well as increased duration and complexity of providing long-term treatment for HIV individuals co-infected with DR-TB, pose substantial challenges to the implementation of a TasP strategy and warrant further investigation. A comprehensive approach must be devised to implement TasP strategy, with special attention paid to the sizable HIV and DR-TB co-infected populations. We suggest that evidence-informed and human rights-based guidelines for participant protection and strategies for programme delivery must be developed and tailored to maximise the benefits to those most at risk of developing HIV and DR-TB co-infection. Assessing regional circumstances is crucial, and TasP programmes in the region should be complemented by combined prevention strategies to achieve the intended goals.

Management of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis infection in human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons

The syndemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/tuberculosis (TB) co-infection has grown as a result of the considerable sociogeographic overlaps between the two epidemics. The situation is particularly worrisome in countries with high or intermediate TB burden against the background of a variable HIV epidemic state. Early diagnosis of TB disease in an HIV-infected person is paramount but suffers from lack of sensitive and specific diagnostic tools. Enhanced symptom screening is currently advocated, and the wide application of affordable molecular diagnostics is urgently needed. Treatment of TB/HIV co-infection involves the concurrent use of standard antiretrovirals and antimycobacterials during which harmful drug interaction may occur. The pharmacokinetic interaction between rifamycin and antiretrovirals is a case in point, requiring dosage adjustment and preferential use of rifabutin, if available. Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy is indicated, preferably at 2 weeks after starting TB treatment for patients with a CD4 of <50 cells/μL. Development of TB-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) is however more frequent with early antiretroviral therapy. The diagnosis of TB-IRIS is another clinical challenge, and cautious use of corticosteroids is suggested to improve clinical outcome. As a preventive measure against active TB disease, the screening for latent TB infection should be widely practiced, followed by at least 6-9 months of isoniazid treatment. To date tuberculin skin test remains the only diagnostic tool in high TB burden countries. The role of alternative tests, for example, interferon-γ release assay, would need to be better defined for clinical application.

TB incidence and characteristics in the remote gulf province of Papua New Guinea: a prospective study

Background

The incidence and characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) in remote areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG) are largely unknown. The purpose of our study was to determine the incidence of TB in the Gulf Province of PNG and describe disease characteristics, co-morbidities and drug resistance profiles that could impact on disease outcomes and transmission.

Methods

Between March 2012 and June 2012, we prospectively collected data on 274 patients presenting to Kikori Hospital with a presumptive diagnosis of TB, and on hospital inpatients receiving TB treatment during the study period. Sputum was collected for microscopy, GeneXpert analysis, culture and genotyping of isolates.

Results

We estimate the incidence of TB in Kikori to be 1290 per 100,000 people (95% CI 1140 to 1460) in 2012. The proportion of TB patients co-infected with HIV was 1.9%. Three of 32 TB cases tested were rifampicin resistant. Typing of nine isolates demonstrated allelic diversity and most were related to Beijing strains.

Conclusions

The incidence of TB in Kikori is one of the highest in the world and it is not driven by HIV co-infection. The high incidence and the presence of rifampicin resistant warrant urgent attention to mitigate substantial morbidity in the region.

Modeling the impact of alternative strategies for rapid molecular diagnosis of tuberculosis in Southeast Asia

Novel diagnostic tests hold promise for improving tuberculosis (TB) control, but their epidemiologic impact remains uncertain. Using data from the World Health Organization (2011-2012), we developed a transmission model to evaluate the deployment of 3 hypothetical TB diagnostic tests in Southeast Asia under idealized scenarios of implementation. We defined diagnostics by their sensitivity for smear-negative TB and proportion of patients testing positive who initiate therapy ("point-of-care amenability"), with tests of increasing point-of-care amenability having lower sensitivity. Implemented in the public sector (35% of care-seeking attempts), each novel test reduced TB incidence by 7%-9% (95% uncertainty range: 4%-13%) and mortality by 20%-22% (95% uncertainty range: 14%-27%) after 10 years. If also deployed in the private sector (65% of attempts), these tests reduced incidence by 13%-16%, whereas a perfect test (100% sensitivity and treatment initiation) reduced incidence by 20%. Annually detecting 20% of prevalent TB cases through targeted screening (70% smear-negative sensitivity, 85% treatment initiation) also reduced incidence by 19%. Sensitivity and point-of-care amenability are equally important considerations when developing novel diagnostic tests for TB. Novel diagnostics can substantially reduce TB incidence and mortality in Southeast Asia but are unlikely to transform TB control unless they are deployed actively and in the private sector.

Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features: validated model-based estimates

Infection with high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Vaccination against HPV16 and 18 types, which are responsible of about 75% of cervical cancer worldwide, is expected to have a major global impact on cervical cancer occurrence. Valid estimates of the parameters that regulate the natural history of hrHPV infections are crucial to draw reliable projections of the impact of vaccination. We devised a mathematical model to estimate the probability of infection transmission, the rate of clearance, and the patterns of immune response following the clearance of infection of 13 hrHPV types. To test the validity of our estimates, we fitted the same transmission model to two large independent datasets from Italy and Sweden and assessed finding consistency. The two populations, both unvaccinated, differed substantially by sexual behaviour, age distribution, and study setting (screening for cervical cancer or Chlamydia trachomatis infection). Estimated transmission probability of hrHPV types (80% for HPV16, 73%-82% for HPV18, and above 50% for most other types); clearance rates decreasing as a function of time since infection; and partial protection against re-infection with the same hrHPV type (approximately 20% for HPV16 and 50% for the other types) were similar in the two countries. The model could accurately predict the HPV16 prevalence observed in Italy among women who were not infected three years before. In conclusion, our models inform on biological parameters that cannot at the moment be measured directly from any empirical data but are essential to forecast the impact of HPV vaccination programmes.

TB and HIV: deadly liaison or manageable threat?

Researchers create a dynamic model that could resolve conflicting findings on the effects of HIV infection on drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Molecular biology of drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) has become a curable disease, thanks to the discovery of antibiotics. However, it has remained one of the most difficult infections to treat. Most current TB regimens consist of 6-9 months of daily doses of four drugs that are highly toxic to patients. The purpose of these lengthy treatments is to completely eradicate Mycobacterium tuberculosis, notorious for its ability to resist most antibacterial agents, thereby preventing the formation of drug resistant mutants. On the contrary, the prolonged therapies have led to poor patient adherence. This, together with a severe limit of drug choices, has resulted in the emergence of strains that are increasingly resistant to the few available antibiotics. Here, we review our current understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying the profound drug resistance of M. tuberculosis. This knowledge is essential for the development of more effective antibiotics, which are not only potent against drug resistant M. tuberculosis strains but also help shorten the current treatment courses required for drug susceptible TB.