Altering Antimalarial Drug Regimens May Dramatically Enhance and Restore Drug Effectiveness

An artesunate pharmacometric model to explain therapeutic responses in falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND

The artemisinins are potent and widely used antimalarial drugs that are eliminated rapidly. A simple concentration-effect pharmacometric model does not explain why dosing more frequently than once daily fails to augment parasite clearance and improve therapeutic responses in vivo. Artemisinins can induce a temporary non-replicative or 'dormant' drug refractory state in Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites which may explain recrudescences observed in clinical trials despite full drug susceptibility, but whether it explains the dosing-response relationship is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To propose a revised model of antimalarial pharmacodynamics that incorporates reversible asexual parasite injury and temporary drug refractoriness in order to explain the failure of frequent dosing to augment therapeutic efficacy in falciparum malaria.

METHODS

The model was fitted using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the parasite clearance data from 39 patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with artesunate from western Cambodia and 40 patients from northwestern Thailand reported previously.

RESULTS

The revised model captured the dynamics of parasite clearance data. Its predictions are consistent with observed therapeutic responses.

CONCLUSIONS

A within-host pharmacometric model is proposed in which it is hypothesized that some malaria parasites enter a temporary drug refractory state after exposure to artemisinin antimalarials, which is followed by delayed parasite death or reactivation. The model fitted the observed sequential parasite density data from patients with acute P. falciparum malaria, and it supported reduced ring stage activity in artemisinin-resistant infections.

Artemisinin resistance and malaria elimination: Where are we now?

The emergence of artemisinin resistance is a major obstacle to the global malaria eradication/elimination programs. Artemisinin is a very fast-acting antimalarial drug and is the most important drug in the treatment of severe and uncomplicated malaria. For the treatment of acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria, artemisinin derivatives are combined with long half-life partner drugs and widely used as artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). Some ACTs have shown decreased efficacy in the Southeast Asian region. Fortunately, artemisinin has an excellent safety profile and resistant infections can still be treated successfully by modifying the ACT. This review describes the pharmacological properties of ACTs, mechanisms of artemisinin resistance and the potential changes needed in the treatment regimens to overcome resistance. The suggested ACT modifications are extension of the duration of the ACT course, alternating use of different ACT regimens, and addition of another antimalarial drug to the standard ACTs (Triple-ACT). Furthermore, a malaria vaccine (e.g., RTS,S vaccine) could be added to mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns to enhance the treatment efficacy and to prevent further artemisinin resistance development. This review concludes that artemisinin remains the most important antimalarial drug, despite the development of drug-resistant falciparum malaria.

The influence of biological, epidemiological, and treatment factors on the establishment and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum

The effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat Plasmodium falciparum malaria is threatened by resistance. The complex interplay between sources of selective pressure-treatment properties, biological factors, transmission intensity, and access to treatment-obscures understanding how, when, and why resistance establishes and spreads across different locations. We developed a disease modelling approach with emulator-based global sensitivity analysis to systematically quantify which of these factors drive establishment and spread of drug resistance. Drug resistance was more likely to evolve in low transmission settings due to the lower levels of (i) immunity and (ii) within-host competition between genotypes. Spread of parasites resistant to artemisinin partner drugs depended on the period of low drug concentration (known as the selection window). Spread of partial artemisinin resistance was slowed with prolonged parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives and accelerated when the parasite was also resistant to the partner drug. Thus, to slow the spread of partial artemisinin resistance, molecular surveillance should be supported to detect resistance to partner drugs and to change ACTs accordingly. Furthermore, implementing more sustainable artemisinin-based therapies will require extending parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives, and mitigating the selection windows of partner drugs, which could be achieved by including an additional long-acting drug.

Efforts Made to Eliminate Drug-Resistant Malaria and Its Challenges

Since 2000, a good deal of progress has been made in malaria control. However, there is still an unacceptably high burden of the disease and numerous challenges limiting advancement towards its elimination and ultimate eradication. Among the challenges is the antimalarial drug resistance, which has been documented for almost all antimalarial drugs in current use. As a result, the malaria research community is working on the modification of existing treatments as well as the discovery and development of new drugs to counter the resistance challenges. To this effect, many products are in the pipeline and expected to be marketed soon. In addition to drug and vaccine development, mass drug administration (MDA) is under scientific scrutiny as an important strategy for effective utilization of the developed products. This review discusses the challenges related to malaria elimination, ongoing approaches to tackle the impact of drug-resistant malaria, and upcoming antimalarial drugs.

The newly discovered role of endocytosis in artemisinin resistance

Artemisinin and its derivatives (ART) are the cornerstone of malaria treatment as part of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT). However, reduced susceptibility to artemisinin as well as its partner drugs threatens the usefulness of ACTs. Single point mutations in the parasite protein Kelch13 (K13) are necessary and sufficient for the reduced sensitivity of malaria parasites to ART but several alternative mechanisms for this resistance have been proposed. Recent work found that K13 is involved in the endocytosis of host cell cytosol and indicated that this is the process responsible for resistance in parasites with mutated K13. These studies also identified a series of further proteins that act together with K13 in the same pathway, including previously suspected resistance proteins such as UBP1 and AP-2μ. Here, we give a brief overview of artemisinin resistance, present the recent evidence of the role of endocytosis in ART resistance and discuss previous hypotheses in light of this new evidence. We also give an outlook on how the new insights might affect future research.

Transdermal delivery of artemisinins for treatment of pre-clinical cerebral malaria

Transdermal drug delivery avoids complications related to oral or parenteral delivery - the need for sterility, contamination, gastrointestinal side effects, patient unconsciousness or nausea and compliance. For malaria treatment, we demonstrate successful novel transdermal delivery of artemisone (ART) and artesunate. The incorporation of ART into a microemulsion (ME) overcomes the limitations of the lipophilic drug and provides high transcutaneous bioavailability. ART delivery to the blood (above 500 ng/ml) was proved by examining the sera from treated mice, using a bioassay in cultured Plasmodium falciparum. Skin spraying of ART-ME eliminated P. berghei ANKA in an infected mouse model of cerebral malaria (CM) and prevented CM, even after a late treatment with a relatively small amount of ART (13.3 mg/kg). For comparison, the artesunate (the most used commercial artemisinin) formulation was prepared as ART. However, ART-ME was about three times more efficient than artesunate-ME. The solubility and stability of ART in the ME, taken together with the successful transdermal delivery leading to animal recovery, suggest this formulation as a potential candidate for transdermal treatment of malaria.

Efficient Treatment of Experimental Cerebral Malaria by an Artemisone-SMEDDS System: Impact of Application Route and Dosing Frequency

Artemisone (ART) has been successfully tested in vitro and in animal models against several diseases. However, its poor aqueous solubility and limited chemical stability are serious challenges. We developed a self-microemulsifying drug delivery system (SMEDDS) that overcomes these limitations. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of this formulation against experimental cerebral malaria in mice and the impact of its administration using different routes (gavage, intranasal delivery, and parenteral injections) and frequency on the efficacy of the treatment. The minimal effective daily oral dose was 20 mg/kg. We found that splitting a dose of 20 mg/kg ART given every 24 h, by administering two doses of 10 mg/kg each every 12 h, was highly effective and gave far superior results compared to 20 mg/kg once daily. We obtained the best results with nasal treatment; oral treatment was ranked second, and the least effective route of administration was intraperitoneal injection. A complete cure of experimental cerebral malaria could be achieved through choosing the optimal route of application, dose, and dosing interval. Altogether, the developed formulation combines easy manufacturing with high stability and could be a successful and very versatile carrier for the delivery of ART in the treatment of human severe malaria.

Parasite Viability as a Superior Measure of Antimalarial Drug Activity in Humans

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin derivatives are the leading class of antimalarial drugs due to their rapid onset of action and rapid clearance of circulating parasites. The parasite clearance half-life measures the rate of loss of parasites from blood after treatment, and this is currently used to assess antimalarial activity of novel agents and to monitor resistance. However, a number of recent studies have challenged the use of parasite clearance to measure drug activity, arguing that many circulating parasites may be nonviable.

METHODS

Plasmodium falciparum-infected subjects (n = 10) in a malaria volunteer infection study were administered a single dose of artesunate (2 mg/kg). Circulating parasite concentration was assessed by means of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Parasite viability after artesunate administration was estimated by mathematical modeling of the ex vivo growth of parasites collected from subjects.

RESULTS

We showed that in artemisinin-sensitive infection, viable parasites declined to <0.1% of baseline within 8 hours after artesunate administration, while the total number of circulating parasites measured with quantitative polymerase chain reaction remained unchanged. In artemisinin-resistant infections over the same interval, viable parasites declined to 51.4% (standard error of the mean, 4.6%) of baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that in vivo drug activity of artesunate is faster than is indicated by the parasite clearance half-life.

Malaria Parasite Clearance: What Are We Really Measuring?

Antimalarial drugs are vital for treating malaria and controlling transmission. Measuring drug efficacy in the field requires large clinical trials and thus we have identified proxy measures of drug efficacy such as the parasite clearance curve. This is often assumed to measure the rate of drug activity against parasites and is used to predict optimal treatment regimens required to completely clear a blood-stage infection. We discuss evidence that the clearance curve is not measuring the rate of drug killing. This has major implications for how we assess optimal treatment regimens, as well as how we prioritise new drugs in the drug development pipeline.

Optimal Treatments for Severe Malaria and the Threat Posed by Artemisinin Resistance

Background

Standard treatment for severe malaria is with artesunate; patient survival in the 24 hours immediately posttreatment is the key objective. Clinical trials use clearance rates of circulating parasites as their clinical outcome, but the pathology of severe malaria is attributed primarily to noncirculating, sequestered, parasites, so there is a disconnect between existing clinical metrics and objectives.

Methods

We extend existing pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling methods to simulate the treatment of 10000 patients with severe malaria and track the pathology caused by sequestered parasites.

Results

Our model recovered the clinical outcomes of existing studies (based on circulating parasites) and showed a “simplified” artesunate regimen was noninferior to the existing World Health Organization regimen across the patient population but resulted in worse outcomes in a subgroup of patients with infections clustered in early stages of the parasite life cycle. This same group of patients were extremely vulnerable to resistance emerging in parasite early ring stages.

Conclusions

We quantify patient outcomes in a manner appropriate for severe malaria with a flexible framework that allows future researchers to implement their beliefs about underlying pathology. We highlight with some urgency the threat posed to treatment of severe malaria by artemisinin resistance in parasite early ring stages.

Improving Methods for Analyzing Antimalarial Drug Efficacy Trials: Molecular Correction Based on Length-Polymorphic Markers msp-1, msp-2, and glurp

Drug efficacy trials monitor the continued efficacy of front-line drugs against falciparum malaria. Overestimating efficacy results in a country retaining a failing drug as first-line treatment with associated increases in morbidity and mortality, while underestimating drug effectiveness leads to removal of an effective treatment with substantial practical and economic implications.

Drug efficacy trials monitor the continued efficacy of front-line drugs against falciparum malaria. Overestimating efficacy results in a country retaining a failing drug as first-line treatment with associated increases in morbidity and mortality, while underestimating drug effectiveness leads to removal of an effective treatment with substantial practical and economic implications. Trials are challenging: they require long durations of follow-up to detect drug failures, and patients are frequently reinfected during that period. Molecular correction based on parasite genotypes distinguishes reinfections from drug failures to ensure the accuracy of failure rate estimates. Several molecular correction “algorithms” have been proposed, but which is most accurate and/or robust remains unknown. We used pharmacological modeling to simulate parasite dynamics and genetic signals that occur in patients enrolled in malaria drug clinical trials. We compared estimates of treatment failure obtained from a selection of proposed molecular correction algorithms against the known “true” failure rate in the model. Our findings are as follows. (i) Molecular correction is essential to avoid substantial overestimates of drug failure rates. (ii) The current WHO-recommended algorithm consistently underestimates the true failure rate. (iii) Newly proposed algorithms produce more accurate failure rate estimates; the most accurate algorithm depends on the choice of drug, trial follow-up length, and transmission intensity. (iv) Long durations of patient follow-up may be counterproductive; large numbers of new infections accumulate and may be misclassified, overestimating drug failure rate. (v) Our model was highly consistent with existing in vivo data. The current WHO-recommended method for molecular correction and analysis of clinical trials should be reevaluated and updated.

Split dosing of artemisinins does not improve antimalarial therapeutic efficacy

It has been suggested recently, based on pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling exercises, that twice daily dosing of artemisinins increases malaria parasite killing and so could “dramatically enhance and restore drug effectiveness” in artemisinin resistant P. falciparum malaria infections. It was recommended that split dosing should be incorporated into all artemisinin combination regimen designs. To explain why parasite clearance rates were not faster with split dose regimens it was concluded that splenic malaria parasite clearance capacity was readily exceeded, resulting in the accumulation of dead parasites in the circulation, that parasite clearance was therefore an unreliable measure of drug efficacy, and instead that human immunity is the primary determinant of clearance rates. To test these various hypotheses we performed a logistic meta-regression analysis of cure rates from all falciparum malaria treatment trials (n = 40) with monotherapy arms containing artemisinin or a derivative (76 arms). There was no evidence that split dosing enhanced cure rates.

Population Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Artemisinin Resistance in Southeast Asia

Orally administered artemisinin-based combination therapy is the first-line treatment against uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria worldwide. However, the increasing prevalence of artemisinin resistance is threatening efforts to treat and eliminate malaria in Southeast Asia. This study aimed to characterize the exposure-response relationship of artesunate in patients with artemisinin sensitive and resistant malaria infections. Patients were recruited in Pailin, Cambodia (n = 39), and Wang Pha, Thailand (n = 40), and received either 2 mg/kg/day of artesunate mono-therapy for 7 consecutive days or 4 mg/kg/day of artesunate monotherapy for 3 consecutive days followed by mefloquine 15 and 10 mg/kg for 2 consecutive days. Plasma concentrations of artesunate and its active metabolite, dihydroartemisinin, and microscopy-based parasite densities were measured and evaluated using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. All treatments were well tolerated with minor and transient adverse reactions. Patients in Cambodia had substantially slower parasite clearance compared to patients in Thailand. The pharmacokinetic properties of artesunate and dihydroartemisinin were well described by transit-compartment absorption followed by one-compartment disposition models. Parasite density was a significant covariate, and higher parasite densities were associated with increased absorption. Dihydroartemisinin-dependent parasite killing was described by a delayed sigmoidal Emax model, and a mixture function was implemented to differentiate between sensitive and resistant infections. This predicted that 84% and 16% of infections in Cambodia and Thailand, respectively, were artemisinin resistant. The final model was used to develop a simple diagnostic nomogram to identify patients with artemisinin-resistant infections. The nomogram showed > 80% specificity and sensitivity, and outperformed the current practice of day 3 positivity testing.

Randomised controlled trial of two sequential artemisinin-based combination therapy regimens to treat uncomplicated falciparum malaria in African children: a protocol to investigate safety, efficacy and adherence

BACKGROUND

Management of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria relies on artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). These highly effective regimens have contributed to reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality. However, artemisinin resistance in Asia and changing parasite susceptibility to ACT in Africa have now been well documented. Strategies that retain current ACT as efficacious treatments are urgently needed.

METHODS

We present an open-label, randomised three-arm clinical trial protocol in three African settings representative of varying malaria epidemiology to investigate whether prolonged ACT-based regimens using currently available formulations can eliminate potentially resistant parasites. The protocol investigates whether a sequential course of two licensed ACT in 1080 children aged 6-120 months exhibits superior efficacy against acute P. falciparum malaria and non-inferior safety compared with standard single-course ACT given to 540 children. The primary endpoint is PCR-corrected clinical and parasitological response at day 42 or day 63 of follow-up. Persistence of PCR-detectable parasitaemia at day 3 is analysed as a key covariate. Secondary endpoints include gametocytaemia, occurrence of treatment-related adverse events in the double-ACT versus single-ACT arms, carriage of molecular markers of drug resistance, drug kinetics and patient adherence to treatment.

DISCUSSION

This protocol addresses efficacy and safety of sequential ACT regimens in P. falciparum malaria in Africa. The approach is designed to extend the useful life of this class of antimalarials with maximal impact and minimal delay, by deploying licensed medicines that could be swiftly implemented as sequential double ACT by National Malaria Control Programmes, before emerging drug resistance in Africa becomes a major threat to public health.

Combating multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Over the past 50 years, Plasmodium falciparum has developed resistance against all antimalarial drugs used against it: chloroquine, sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, quinine, piperaquine and mefloquine. More recently, resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the resulting failure of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) are threatening all major gains made in malaria control. Each time resistance has developed progressively, with delayed clearance of parasites first emerging only in a few regions, increasing in prevalence and geographic range, and then ultimately resulting in the complete failure of that antimalarial. Drawing from this repeated historical chain of events, this article presents context-specific approaches for combating drug-resistant P. falciparum malaria. The approaches begin with a context of drug-sensitive parasites and focus on the prevention of the emergence of drug resistance. Next, the approaches address a scenario in which resistance has emerged and is increasing in prevalence and geographic extent, with interventions focused on disrupting transmission through vector control, early diagnosis and treatment, and the use of new combination therapies. Elimination is also presented as an approach for addressing the imminent failure of all available antimalarials. The final drug resistance context presented is one in which all available antimalarials have failed; leaving only personal protection and the use of new antimalarials (or new combinations of antimalarials) as a viable strategy for dealing with complete resistance. All effective strategies and contexts require a multipronged, holistic approach.

Impact of Extended Duration of Artesunate Treatment on Parasitological Outcome in a Cytocidal Murine Malaria Model

Artemisinin-based combination therapies are a key pillar in global malaria control and are recommended as a first-line Plasmodium falciparum treatment. They rely upon a rapid 4-log-unit reduction in parasitemia by artemisinin compounds with a short half-life and the killing of remaining parasites by a partner compound with a longer half-life. Current treatment guidelines stipulate giving three 24-h-interval doses or six 12-h-interval doses over a 3-day period. Due to the short half-life of artesunate and artemether, almost all of the resulting cytocidal activity is confined within a single 48-h asexual P. falciparum cycle. Here, we utilized a luciferase reporter, Plasmodium berghei ANKA, in a cytocidal model in which treatment was initiated at high parasitemia, allowing us to monitor a greater than 3-log-unit reduction in parasite density, as well as 30-day survival. In this study, we demonstrated that increasing the artesunate duration from spanning one asexual cycle to spanning three asexual cycles while keeping the total dose constant results in enhanced cytocidal activity. Single daily artesunate doses at 50 mg/kg of body weight over 7 days were the minimum necessary for curative monotherapy. In combination with a single sub-human-equivalent dose of the partner drug amodiaquine or piperaquine, the three-asexual-cycle artesunate duration was able to cure 75% and 100% of mice, respectively, whereas 0% and 33% cures were achieved with the single-asexual-cycle artesunate duration. In summary, cytocidal activity of the artemisinin compounds, such as artesunate, can be improved solely by altering the dosing duration.

Mathematical Modelling to Guide Drug Development for Malaria Elimination

Mathematical models of the dynamics of a drug within the host are now frequently used to guide drug development. These generally focus on assessing the efficacy and duration of response to guide patient therapy. Increasingly, antimalarial drugs are used at the population level, to clear infections, provide chemoprevention, and to reduce onward transmission of infection. However, there is less clarity on the extent to which different drug properties are important for these different uses. In addition, the emergence of drug resistance poses new threats to longer-term use and highlights the need for rational drug development. Here, we argue that integrating within-host pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models with mathematical models for the population-level transmission of malaria is key to guiding optimal drug design to aid malaria elimination.

Malaria parasite clearance

Following anti-malarial drug treatment asexual malaria parasite killing and clearance appear to be first order processes. Damaged malaria parasites in circulating erythrocytes are removed from the circulation mainly by the spleen. Splenic clearance functions increase markedly in acute malaria. Either the entire infected erythrocytes are removed because of their reduced deformability or increased antibody binding or, for the artemisinins which act on young ring stage parasites, splenic pitting of drug-damaged parasites is an important mechanism of clearance. The once-infected erythrocytes returned to the circulation have shortened survival. This contributes to post-artesunate haemolysis that may follow recovery in non-immune hyperparasitaemic patients. As the parasites mature Plasmodium vivax-infected erythrocytes become more deformable, whereas Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes become less deformable, but they escape splenic filtration by sequestering in venules and capillaries. Sequestered parasites are killed in situ by anti-malarial drugs and then disintegrate to be cleared by phagocytic leukocytes. After treatment with artemisinin derivatives some asexual parasites become temporarily dormant within their infected erythrocytes, and these may regrow after anti-malarial drug concentrations decline. Artemisinin resistance in P. falciparum reflects reduced ring stage susceptibility and manifests as slow parasite clearance. This is best assessed from the slope of the log-linear phase of parasitaemia reduction and is commonly measured as a parasite clearance half-life. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of anti-malarial drug effects on parasite clearance has proved useful in predicting therapeutic responses and in dose-optimization.

Quantifying the pharmacology of antimalarial drug combination therapy

Most current antimalarial drugs are combinations of an artemisinin plus a ‘partner’ drug from another class, and are known as artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). They are the frontline drugs in treating human malaria infections. They also have a public-health role as an essential component of recent, comprehensive scale-ups of malaria interventions and containment efforts conceived as part of longer term malaria elimination efforts. Recent reports that resistance has arisen to artemisinins has caused considerable concern. We investigate the likely impact of artemisinin resistance by quantifying the contribution artemisinins make to the overall therapeutic capacity of ACTs. We achieve this using a simple, easily understood, algebraic approach and by more sophisticated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analyses of drug action; the two approaches gave consistent results. Surprisingly, the artemisinin component typically makes a negligible contribution (≪0.0001%) to the therapeutic capacity of the most widely used ACTs and only starts to make a significant contribution to therapeutic outcome once resistance has started to evolve to the partner drugs. The main threat to antimalarial drug effectiveness and control comes from resistance evolving to the partner drugs. We therefore argue that public health policies be re-focussed to maximise the likely long-term effectiveness of the partner drugs.

OptiMal-PK: an internet-based, user-friendly interface for the mathematical-based design of optimized anti-malarial treatment regimens

Background

The search for highly effective anti-malarial therapies has gathered pace and recent years have seen a number of promising single and combined therapies reach the late stages of development. A key drug development challenge is the need for early assessment of the clinical utility of new drug leads as it is often unclear for developers whether efforts should be focused on efficacy or metabolic stability/exposure or indeed whether the continuation of iterative QSAR (quantitative structure–activity and relationships) cycles of medicinal chemistry and biological testing will translate to improved clinical efficacy. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD)-based measurements available from in vitro studies can be used for such clinical predictions. However, these predictions often require bespoke mathematical PK/PD modelling expertise and are normally performed after candidate development and, therefore, not during the pre-clinical development phase when such decisions need to be made.

Methods

An internet-based tool has been developed using STELLA^® software. The tool simulates multiple differential equations that describe anti-malarial PK/PD relationships where the user can easily input PK/PD parameters. The tool utilizes a simple stop-light system to indicate the efficacy of each combination of parameters. This tool, called OptiMal-PK, additionally allows for the investigation of the effect of drug combinations with known or custom compounds.

Results

The results of simulations obtained from OptiMal-PK were compared to a previously published and validated mathematical model on which this tool is based. The tool has also been used to simulate the PK/PD relationship for a number of existing anti-malarial drugs in single or combined treatment. Simulations were predictive of the published clinical parasitological clearance activities for these existing therapies.

Conclusions

OptiMal-PK is designed to be implemented by medicinal chemists and pharmacologists during the pre-clinical anti-malarial drug development phase to explore the impact of different PK/PD parameters upon the predicted clinical activity of any new compound. It can help investigators to identify which pharmacological features of a compound are most important to the clinical performance of a new chemical entity and how partner drugs could potentially improve the activity of existing therapies.

Rethinking Dosing Regimen Selection of Piperaquine for Malaria Chemoprevention: A Simulation Study

Background

The combination of short-acting dihydroartemisinin and long-acting piperaquine (DP) is among the first-line therapies for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Population pharmacokinetic models of piperaquine (PQ) based on data from acute treatment of young children can be used to predict exposure profiles of piperaquine under different DP chemoprevention regimens. The purpose of our study was to make such predictions in young children.

Methods

Based on a prior population pharmacokinetic model of PQ in young Ugandan children, we simulated capillary plasma concentration-time profiles (including their variability) of candidate chemoprevention regimens for a reference population of 1–2 year olds weighing at least 11 kg. Candidate regimens that were tested included monthly administration of standard therapeutic doses, bimonthly dosing, and weekly dosing (with and without a loading dose).

Results

Once daily doses of 320 mg for three days (960 mg total) at the beginning of each month are predicted to achieve an average steady-state trough capillary piperaquine concentration of 35 ng/mL, with 60% achieving a level of 30 ng/mL or higher. In contrast, weekly dosing of 320 mg (i.e., 33% higher amount per month) is predicted to approximately double the average steady-state trough concentration, increase the percent of children predicted to achieve 30 ng/mL or higher (94%), while at the same time lowering peak concentrations. Exposure at steady-state, reached at approximately 3 months of multiple dosing, is expected to be approximately 2-fold higher than exposure following initial dosing, due to accumulation. A loading dose improves early exposure, thereby reducing the risk of breakthrough infections at the initiation of chemoprevention.

Conclusions

Once weekly chemoprevention of DP predicts favourable exposures with respect to both trough and peak concentrations. These predictions need to be verified, as well as safety evaluated, in field-based clinical studies of young children. Simulations based on prior knowledge provide a systematic information-driven approach to evaluate candidate DP chemopreventive regimens for future trial designs.

How Robust Are Malaria Parasite Clearance Rates as Indicators of Drug Effectiveness and Resistance?

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are currently the first-line drugs for treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria, the most deadly of the human malarias. Malaria parasite clearance rates estimated from patients' blood following ACT treatment have been widely adopted as a measure of drug effectiveness and as surveillance tools for detecting the presence of potential artemisinin resistance. This metric has not been investigated in detail, nor have its properties or potential shortcomings been identified. Herein, the pharmacology of drug treatment, parasite biology, and human immunity are combined to investigate the dynamics of parasite clearance following ACT. This approach parsimoniously recovers the principal clinical features and dynamics of clearance. Human immunity is the primary determinant of clearance rates, unless or until artemisinin killing has fallen to near-ineffective levels. Clearance rates are therefore highly insensitive metrics for surveillance that may lead to overconfidence, as even quite substantial reductions in drug sensitivity may not be detected as lower clearance rates. Equally serious is the use of clearance rates to quantify the impact of ACT regimen changes, as this strategy will plausibly miss even very substantial increases in drug effectiveness. In particular, the malaria community may be missing the opportunity to dramatically increase ACT effectiveness through regimen changes, particularly through a switch to twice-daily regimens and/or increases in artemisinin dosing levels. The malaria community therefore appears overreliant on a single metric of drug effectiveness, the parasite clearance rate, that has significant and serious shortcomings.