Rapid viral expansion and short drug half-life explain the incomplete effectiveness of current herpes simplex virus 2-directed antiviral agents. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2013;57:5820-5829. [PMID: 24018260 DOI: 10.1128/aac.01114-13]

A unifying model to explain frequent SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir treatment and limited prophylactic efficacy

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We develop a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulates viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

Two-way pharmacodynamic modeling of drug combinations and its application to pairs of repurposed Ebola and SARS-CoV-2 agents

Existing pharmacodynamic (PD) mathematical models for drug combinations discriminate antagonistic, additive, multiplicative, and synergistic effects, but fail to consider how concentration-dependent drug interaction effects may vary across an entire dose-response matrix. We developed a two-way pharmacodynamic (TWPD) model to capture the PD of two-drug combinations. TWPD captures interactions between upstream and downstream drugs that act on different stages of viral replication, by quantifying upstream drug efficacy and concentration-dependent effects on downstream drug pharmacodynamic parameters. We applied TWPD to previously published in vitro drug matrixes for repurposed potential anti-Ebola and anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug pairs. Depending on the drug pairing, the model recapitulated combined efficacies as or more accurately than existing models and can be used to infer efficacy at untested drug concentrations. TWPD fits the data slightly better in one direction for all drug pairs, meaning that we can tentatively infer the upstream drug. Based on its high accuracy, TWPD could be used in concert with PK models to estimate the therapeutic effects of drug pairs in vivo.

Genotypic testing improves detection of antiviral resistance in human herpes simplex virus

BACKGROUND

Antiviral resistance in human herpes simplex viruses (HSV) remains a significant clinical challenge in immunocompromised populations. Although molecular tests have largely replaced viral culture for HSV diagnosis and molecular antiviral resistance testing is available for many viruses, HSV resistance testing continues to rely on phenotypic, viral culture-based methods, requiring weeks for results. Consequently, treatment of suspected HSV resistance remains largely empiric.

METHODS

We used HSV whole genome sequencing and a database of previously characterized HSV acyclovir and foscarnet resistance mutations to evaluate the performance of genotypic antiviral resistance testing among 19 control strains compared to in-house plaque reduction assay (PRA) and 25 clinical isolates sent for reference lab PRA antiviral resistance testing.

RESULTS

Among control strains, 23/29 (79.3%) results were concordant, 5 (17.2%) were indeterminate, and 1 (3.4%) was discordant. Indeterminate results were caused by variants of uncertain significance (VUS), including mutations without published phenotypes and mutations with contradictory results. Among clinical isolates, 14/40 (35%) results were concordant, 17 (42.5%) were indeterminate, and 9 (22.5%) were discordant. All discordant results were in reportedly phenotypically-susceptible HSV-1 strains yet possessed resistance mutations. Three contained resistant subpopulations. 6/8 (75%) discordant phenotypes were concordant with resistant genotypes upon repeat PRA.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the combination of genotypic and phenotypic testing to diagnose HSV resistance more accurately and likely more rapidly than phenotypic testing alone. Genotypic context of resistance mutations and the ability of viral strains to form plaques in culture may affect phenotypic resistance results, highlighting the limitations of PRA alone as a gold standard method.

Advances in Alpha Herpes Viruses Vaccines for Human

Alpha herpes simplex viruses are an important public health problem affecting all age groups. It can produce from common cold sores and chicken pox to severe conditions like encephalitis or newborn mortality. Although all three subtypes of alpha herpes viruses have a similar structure, the produced pathology differs, and at the same time, the available prevention measures, such as vaccination. While there is an available and efficient vaccine for the varicella-zoster virus, for herpes simplex virus 1 and 2, after multiple approaches from trivalent subunit vaccine to next-generation live-attenuated virus vaccines and bioinformatic studies, there is still no vaccine available. Although there are multiple failed approaches in present studies, there are also a few promising attempts; for example, the trivalent vaccine containing herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) glycoproteins C, D, and E (gC2, gD2, gE2) produced in baculovirus was able to protect guinea pigs against vaginal infection and proved to cross-protect against HSV-1. Another promising vaccine is the multivalent DNA vaccine, SL-V20, tested in a mouse model, which lowered the clinical signs of infection and produced efficient viral eradication against vaginal HSV-2. Promising approaches have emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic, and a possible nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccine could be the next step. All the approaches until now have not led to a successful vaccine that could be easy to administer and, at the same time, offer antibodies for a long period.

The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests HSV-2 infection increases HIV acquisition risk and HIV/HSV-2 coinfection increases transmission risk of both infections. We analysed the potential impact of HSV-2 vaccination in South Africa, a high HIV/HSV-2 prevalence setting.

METHODS

We adapted a dynamic HIV transmission model for South Africa to incorporate HSV-2, including synergistic effects with HIV, to evaluate the impact of: (i) cohort vaccination of 9-year-olds with a prophylactic vaccine that reduces HSV-2 susceptibility; (ii) vaccination of symptomatically HSV-2-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine that reduces HSV shedding.

FINDINGS

An 80% efficacious prophylactic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 80% uptake could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 84.1% (95% Credibility Interval: 81.2-86.0) and 65.4% (56.5-71.6) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 57.4% (53.6-60.7) and 42.1% (34.1-48.1) if efficacy is 50%, 56.1% (53.4-58.3) and 41.5% (34.2-46.9) if uptake is 40%, and 29.4% (26.0-31.9) and 24.4% (19.0-28.7) if protection lasts 10 years. An 80% efficacious therapeutic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 40% coverage among symptomatic individuals could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 29.6% (21.8-40.9) and 26.4% (18.5-23.2) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 18.8% (13.7-26.4) and 16.9% (11.7-25.3) if efficacy is 50%, 9.7% (7.0-14.0) and 8.6% (5.8-13.4) if coverage is 20%, and 5.4% (3.8-8.0) and 5.5% (3.7-8.6) if protection lasts 2 years.

INTERPRETATION

Prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines offer promising approaches for reducing HSV-2 burden and could have important impact on HIV in South Africa and other high prevalence settings.

FUNDING

WHO, NIAID.

Pharmacokinetics and Safety Study of HN0037, a Novel Anti-Human Herpes Simplex Virus Inhibitor, in Healthy Volunteers

HN0037 is a helicase-primase inhibitor developed to treat herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection. This study evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of HN0037, following oral administration in healthy volunteers. This double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1 study comprised two parts. In part 1, a single escalating dose of 10, 30, 60, 120, 200, 300, and 400 mg was assessed, and the food effect was evaluated in the 200-mg cohort. In part 2, a multiple dose evaluation involving 30 and 100 mg once a day was conducted for 14 days. Following single oral doses, the systemic exposure of HN0037 increased in a proportional manner over the lower dose range (10-120 mg) and in a subproportional manner over the higher dose range (200-400 mg). Following multiple oral doses, significant drug accumulation of systemic exposure was found at steady state, and the half-life ranged 50.4-61.0 h. The food effect study results indicated that a high-fat meal had a marginal impact on HN0037's pharmacokinetics. No differences were observed in the incidence of adverse events between HN0037 and placebo groups in either study. These results demonstrate that HN0037 is safe and well-tolerated, supporting further clinical development.

Discovery, Chemistry, and Preclinical Development of Pritelivir, a Novel Treatment Option for Acyclovir-Resistant Herpes Simplex Virus Infections

When the nucleoside analogue acyclovir was introduced in the early 1980s, it presented a game-changing treatment modality for herpes simplex virus infections. Since then, work has been ongoing to improve the weaknesses that have now been identified: a narrow time window for therapeutic success, resistance in immunocompromised patients, little influence on frequency of recurrences, relatively fast elimination, and poor bioavailability. The present Drug Annotation focuses on the helicase–primase inhibitor pritelivir currently in development for the treatment of acyclovir-resistant HSV infections and describes how a change of the molecular target (from viral DNA polymerase to the HSV helicase–primase complex) afforded improvement of the shortcomings of nucleoside analogs. Details are presented for the discovery process leading to the final drug candidate, the pivotal preclinical studies on mechanism of action and efficacy, and on how ongoing clinical research has been able to translate preclinical promises into clinical use.

Modeling explains prolonged SARS-CoV-2 nasal shedding relative to lung shedding in remdesivir treated rhesus macaques

In clinical trials, remdesivir decreased recovery time in hospitalized patients with SARS- CoV-2 and prevented hospitalization when given early during infection, despite not reducing nasal viral loads. In rhesus macaques, early remdesivir prevented pneumonia and lowered lung viral loads, but viral loads increased in nasal passages after five days. We developed mathematical models to explain these results. Our model raises the hypotheses that: 1) in contrast to nasal passages viral load monotonically decreases in lungs during therapy because of infection-dependent generation of refractory cells, 2) slight reduction in lung viral loads with an imperfect agent may result in a substantial decrease in lung damage, and 3) increases in nasal viral load may occur due to a blunting of peak viral load which decreases the intensity of the innate immune response. We demonstrate that a higher potency drug could lower viral loads in nasal passages and lung.

Combinatorial Herpes Simplex Vaccine Strategies: From Bedside to Bench and Back

The development of vaccines against herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 (HSV1 and HSV-2) is an important goal for global health. In this review we reexamined (i) the status of ocular herpes vaccines in clinical trials; and (ii) discusses the recent scientific advances in the understanding of differential immune response between HSV infected asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals that form the basis for the new combinatorial vaccine strategies targeting HSV; and (iii) shed light on our novel "asymptomatic" herpes approach based on protective immune mechanisms in seropositive asymptomatic individuals who are "naturally" protected from recurrent herpetic diseases. We previously reported that phenotypically and functionally distinct HSV-specific memory CD8+ T cell subsets in asymptomatic and symptomatic HSV-infected individuals. Moreover, a better protection induced following a prime/pull vaccine approach that consists of first priming anti-viral effector memory T cells systemically and then pulling them to the sites of virus reactivation (e.g., sensory ganglia) and replication (e.g., eyes and vaginal mucosa), following mucosal administration of vectors expressing T cell-attracting chemokines. In addition, we reported that a combination of prime/pull vaccine approach with approaches to reverse T cell exhaustion led to even better protection against herpes infection and disease. Blocking PD-1, LAG-3, TIGIT and/or TIM-3 immune checkpoint pathways helped in restoring the function of antiviral HSV-specific CD8+ T cells in latently infected ganglia and increased efficacy and longevity of the prime/pull herpes vaccine. We discussed that a prime/pull vaccine strategy that use of asymptomatic epitopes, combined with immune checkpoint blockade would prove to be a successful herpes vaccine approach.

Trajectory of Viral RNA Load Among Persons With Incident SARS-CoV-2 G614 Infection (Wuhan Strain) in Association With COVID-19 Symptom Onset and Severity

IMPORTANCE

The SARS-CoV-2 viral trajectory has not been well characterized in incident infections. These data are needed to inform natural history, prevention practices, and therapeutic development.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize early SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load (hereafter referred to as viral load) in individuals with incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective cohort study was a secondary data analysis of a remotely conducted study that enrolled 829 asymptomatic community-based participants recently exposed (<96 hours) to persons with SARS-CoV-2 from 41 US states from March 31 to August 21, 2020. Two cohorts were studied: (1) participants who were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and tested positive during study follow-up, and (2) participants who had 2 or more positive swabs during follow-up, regardless of the initial (baseline) swab result. Participants collected daily midturbinate swab samples for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection and maintained symptom diaries for 14 days.

EXPOSURE

Laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load among incident infections was summarized, and piecewise linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the characteristics of viral trajectories in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity.

RESULTS

A total of 97 participants (55 women [57%]; median age, 37 years [IQR, 27-52 years]) developed incident infections during follow-up. Forty-two participants (43%) had viral shedding for 1 day (median peak viral load cycle threshold [Ct] value, 38.5 [95% CI, 38.3-39.0]), 18 (19%) for 2 to 6 days (median Ct value, 36.7 [95% CI, 30.2-38.1]), and 31 (32%) for 7 days or more (median Ct value, 18.3 [95% CI, 17.4-22.0]). The cycle threshold value has an inverse association with viral load. Six participants (6%) had 1 to 6 days of viral shedding with censored duration. The peak mean (SD) viral load was observed on day 3 of shedding (Ct value, 33.8 [95% CI, 31.9-35.6]). Based on the statistical models fitted to 129 participants (60 men [47%]; median age, 38 years [IQR, 25-54 years]) with 2 or more SARS-CoV-2-positive swab samples, persons reporting moderate or severe symptoms tended to have a higher peak mean viral load than those who were asymptomatic (Ct value, 23.3 [95% CI, 22.6-24.0] vs 30.7 [95% CI, 29.8-31.4]). Mild symptoms generally started within 1 day of peak viral load, and moderate or severe symptoms 2 days after peak viral load. All 535 sequenced samples detected the G614 variant (Wuhan strain).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study suggests that having incident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection was associated with a rapid viral load peak followed by slower decay. COVID-19 symptom onset generally coincided with peak viral load, which correlated positively with symptom severity. This longitudinal evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 with frequent molecular testing serves as a reference for comparing emergent viral lineages to inform clinical trial designs and public health strategies to contain the spread of the virus.

Drug Combinations as a First Line of Defense against Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Viruses

The world was unprepared for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and remains ill-equipped for future pandemics. While unprecedented strides have been made developing vaccines and treatments for COVID-19, there remains a need for highly effective and widely available regimens for ambulatory use for novel coronaviruses and other viral pathogens. We posit that a priority is to develop pan-family drug cocktails to enhance potency, limit toxicity, and avoid drug resistance. We urge cocktail development for all viruses with pandemic potential both in the short term (<1 to 2 years) and longer term with pairs of drugs in advanced clinical testing or repurposed agents approved for other indications. While significant efforts were launched against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in vitro and in the clinic, many studies employed solo drugs and had disappointing results. Here, we review drug combination studies against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses and introduce a model-driven approach to assess drug pairs with the highest likelihood of clinical efficacy. Where component agents lack sufficient potency, we advocate for synergistic combinations to achieve therapeutic levels. We also discuss issues that stymied therapeutic progress against COVID-19, including testing of agents with low likelihood of efficacy late in clinical disease and lack of focus on developing virologic surrogate endpoints. There is a need to expedite efficient clinical trials testing drug combinations that could be taken at home by recently infected individuals and exposed contacts as early as possible during the next pandemic, whether caused by a coronavirus or another viral pathogen. The approach herein represents a proactive plan for global viral pandemic preparedness.

Release of HSV-1 Cell-Free Virions: Mechanisms, Regulation, and Likely Role in Human-Human Transmission

Herpes simplex virus type 1, or HSV-1, is a widespread human pathogen that replicates in epithelial cells of the body surface and then establishes latent infection in peripheral neurons. When HSV-1 replicates, viral progeny must be efficiently released to spread infection to new target cells. Viral spread occurs via two major routes. In cell-cell spread, progeny virions are delivered directly to cellular junctions, where they infect adjacent cells. In cell-free release, progeny virions are released into the extracellular milieu, potentially allowing the infection of distant cells. Cell-cell spread of HSV-1 has been well studied and is known to be important for in vivo infection and pathogenesis. In contrast, HSV-1 cell-free release has received less attention, and its significance to viral biology is unclear. Here, I review the mechanisms and regulation of HSV-1 cell-free virion release. Based on knowledge accrued in other herpesviral systems, I argue that HSV-1 cell-free release is likely to be tightly regulated in vivo. Specifically, I hypothesize that this process is generally suppressed as the virus replicates within the body, but activated to high levels at sites of viral reactivation, such as the oral mucosa and skin, in order to promote efficient transmission of HSV-1 to new human hosts.

Mathematical Modeling of Within-Host, Untreated, Cytomegalovirus Infection Dynamics after Allogeneic Transplantation

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) causes significant morbidity and mortality in recipients of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Whereas insights gained from mathematical modeling of other chronic viral infections such as HIV, hepatitis C, and herpes simplex virus-2 have aided in optimizing therapy, previous CMV modeling has been hindered by a lack of comprehensive quantitative PCR viral load data from untreated episodes of viremia in HCT recipients. We performed quantitative CMV DNA PCR on stored, frozen serum samples from the placebo group of participants in a historic randomized controlled trial of ganciclovir for the early treatment of CMV infection in bone marrow transplant recipients. We developed four main ordinary differential Equation mathematical models and used model selection theory to choose between 38 competing versions of these models. Models were fit using a population, nonlinear, mixed-effects approach. We found that CMV kinetics from untreated HCT recipients are highly variable. The models that recapitulated the observed patterns most parsimoniously included explicit, dynamic immune cell compartments and did not include dynamic target cell compartments, consistent with the large number of tissue and cell types that CMV infects. In addition, in our best-fitting models, viral clearance was extremely slow, suggesting severe impairment of the immune response after HCT. Parameters from our best model correlated well with participants’ clinical risk factors and outcomes from the trial, further validating our model. Our models suggest that CMV dynamics in HCT recipients are determined by host immune response rather than target cell limitation in the absence of antiviral treatment.

Formation of Tissue-Resident CD8+ T-Cell Memory

Resident memory CD8⁺ T (Trm) cells permanently reside in nonlymphoid tissues where they act as a first line of defense against recurrent pathogens. How and when antigen-inexperienced CD8⁺ T cells differentiate into Trm has been a topic of major interest, as knowledge on how to steer this process may be exploited in the development of vaccines and anticancer therapies. Here, we first review the current understanding of the early signals that CD8⁺ T cells receive before they have entered the tissue and that govern their capacity to develop into tissue-resident memory T cells. Subsequently, we discuss the tissue-derived factors that promote Trm maturation in situ. Combined, these data sketch a model in which a subset of responding T cells develops a heightened capacity to respond to local cues present in the tissue microenvironment, which thereby imprints their ability to contribute to the tissue-resident memory CD8⁺ T-cell pool that provide local control against pathogens.

Formulation, Stability, Pharmacokinetic, and Modeling Studies for Tests of Synergistic Combinations of Orally Available Approved Drugs against Ebola Virus In Vivo

Outbreaks of Ebola ebolavirus (EBOV) have been associated with high morbidity and mortality. Milestones have been reached recently in the management of EBOV disease (EVD) with licensure of an EBOV vaccine and two monoclonal antibody therapies. However, neither vaccines nor therapies are available for other disease-causing filoviruses. In preparation for such outbreaks, and for more facile and cost-effective management of EVD, we seek a cocktail containing orally available and room temperature stable drugs with strong activity against multiple filoviruses. We previously showed that (bepridil + sertraline) and (sertraline + toremifene) synergistically suppress EBOV in cell cultures. Here, we describe steps towards testing these combinations in a mouse model of EVD. We identified a vehicle suitable for oral delivery of the component drugs and determined that, thus formulated the drugs are equally active against EBOV as preparations in DMSO, and they maintain activity upon storage in solution for up to seven days. Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies indicated that the drugs in the oral delivery vehicle are well tolerated in mice at the highest doses tested. Collectively the data support advancement of these combinations to tests for synergy in a mouse model of EVD. Moreover, mathematical modeling based on human oral PK projects that the combinations would be more active in humans than their component single drugs.

Modulation of Endosome Function, Vesicle Trafficking and Autophagy by Human Herpesviruses

Human herpesviruses are a ubiquitous family of viruses that infect individuals of all ages and are present at a high prevalence worldwide. Herpesviruses are responsible for a broad spectrum of diseases, ranging from skin and mucosal lesions to blindness and life-threatening encephalitis, and some of them, such as Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) and Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), are known to be oncogenic. Furthermore, recent studies suggest that some herpesviruses may be associated with developing neurodegenerative diseases. These viruses can establish lifelong infections in the host and remain in a latent state with periodic reactivations. To achieve infection and yield new infectious viral particles, these viruses require and interact with molecular host determinants for supporting their replication and spread. Important sets of cellular factors involved in the lifecycle of herpesviruses are those participating in intracellular membrane trafficking pathways, as well as autophagic-based organelle recycling processes. These cellular processes are required by these viruses for cell entry and exit steps. Here, we review and discuss recent findings related to how herpesviruses exploit vesicular trafficking and autophagy components by using both host and viral gene products to promote the import and export of infectious viral particles from and to the extracellular environment. Understanding how herpesviruses modulate autophagy, endolysosomal and secretory pathways, as well as other prominent trafficking vesicles within the cell, could enable the engineering of novel antiviral therapies to treat these viruses and counteract their negative health effects.

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

To affect the COVID-19 pandemic, lifesaving antiviral therapies must be identified. The number of clinical trials that can be performed is limited. We developed mathematical models to project multiple therapeutic approaches. Our models recapitulate off-treatment viral dynamics and predict a three-phase immune response. Simulated treatment with remdesivir, selinexor, neutralizing antibodies, or cellular immunotherapy demonstrates that rapid viral elimination is possible if in vivo potency is sufficiently high. Therapies dosed soon after peak viral load when symptoms develop may decrease shedding duration and immune response intensity but have little effect on viral area under the curve (AUC), which is driven by high early viral loads. Potent therapy dosed before viral peak during presymptomatic infection could lower AUC. Drug resistance may emerge with a moderately potent agent dosed before viral peak. Our results support early treatment for COVID-19 if shedding duration, not AUC, is most predictive of clinical severity.

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

To affect the COVID-19 pandemic, lifesaving antiviral therapies must be identified. The number of clinical trials that can be performed is limited. We developed mathematical models to project multiple therapeutic approaches. Our models recapitulate off-treatment viral dynamics and predict a three-phase immune response. Simulated treatment with remdesivir, selinexor, neutralizing antibodies, or cellular immunotherapy demonstrates that rapid viral elimination is possible if in vivo potency is sufficiently high. Therapies dosed soon after peak viral load when symptoms develop may decrease shedding duration and immune response intensity but have little effect on viral area under the curve (AUC), which is driven by high early viral loads. Potent therapy dosed before viral peak during presymptomatic infection could lower AUC. Drug resistance may emerge with a moderately potent agent dosed before viral peak. Our results support early treatment for COVID-19 if shedding duration, not AUC, is most predictive of clinical severity.

Global and regional estimates of the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection to HIV incidence: a population attributable fraction analysis using published epidemiological data

BACKGROUND

A 2017 systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 prospective studies found the adjusted risk of HIV acquisition to be at least tripled in individuals with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. We aimed to assess the potential contribution of HSV-2 infection to HIV incidence, given an effect of HSV-2 on HIV acquisition.

METHODS

We used a classic epidemiological formula to estimate the global and regional (WHO regional) population attributable fraction (PAF) and number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection by age (15-24 years, 25-49 years, and 15-49 years), sex, and timing of HSV-2 infection (established vs recently acquired). Estimates were calculated by incorporating HSV-2 and HIV infection data with pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV acquisition from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Because HSV-2 and HIV have shared sexual and other risk factors, in addition to HSV-related biological factors that increase HIV risk, we only used RR estimates that were adjusted for potential confounders.

FINDINGS

An estimated 420 000 (95% uncertainty interval 317 000-546 000; PAF 29·6% [22·9-37·1]) of 1·4 million sexually acquired incident HIV infections in individuals aged 15-49 years in 2016 were attributable to HSV-2 infection. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV was largest for the WHO African region (PAF 37·1% [28·7-46·3]), women (34·8% [23·5-45·0]), individuals aged 25-49 years (32·4% [25·4-40·2]), and established HSV-2 infection (26·8% [19·7-34·5]).

INTERPRETATION

A large burden of HIV is likely to be attributable to HSV-2 infection, even if the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV had been imperfectly measured in studies providing adjusted RR estimates, potentially because of residual confounding. The contribution is likely to be greatest in areas where HSV-2 is highly prevalent, particularly Africa. New preventive interventions against HSV-2 infection could not only improve the quality of life of millions of people by reducing the prevalence of herpetic genital ulcer disease, but could also have an additional, indirect effect on HIV transmission.

FUNDING

WHO.

Vaccines for Herpes Simplex: Recent Progress Driven by Viral and Adjuvant Immunology

Herpes simplex viruses (HSV) types 1 and 2 are ubiquitous. They both cause genital herpes, occasionally severe disease in the immunocompromised, and facilitate much HIV acquisition globally. Despite more than 60 years of research, there is no licensed prophylactic HSV vaccine and some doubt as to whether this can be achieved. Nevertheless, a previous HSV vaccine candidate did have partial success in preventing genital herpes and HSV acquisition and another immunotherapeutic candidate reduced viral shedding and recurrent lesions, inspiring further research. However, the entry pathway of HSV into the anogenital mucosa and the subsequent cascade of immune responses need further elucidation so that these responses could be mimicked or improved by a vaccine, to prevent viral entry and colonization of the neuronal ganglia. For an effective novel vaccine against genital herpes the choice of antigen and adjuvant may be critical. The incorporation of adjuvants of the vaccine candidates in the past, may account for their partial efficacy. It is likely that they can be improved by understanding the mechanisms of immune responses elicited by different adjuvants and comparing these to natural immune responses. Here we review the history of vaccines for HSV, those in development and compare them to successful vaccines for chicken pox or herpes zoster. We also review what is known of the natural immune control of herpes lesions, via interacting innate immunity and CD4 and CD8 T cells and the lessons they provide for development of new, more effective vaccines.

HSV-2 Cellular Programming Enables Productive HIV Infection in Dendritic Cells

Genital herpes is a common sexually transmitted infection caused by herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). Genital herpes significantly enhances the acquisition and transmission of HIV-1 by creating a microenvironment that supports HIV infection in the host. Dendritic cells (DCs) represent one of the first innate cell types that encounter HIV-1 and HSV-2 in the genital mucosa. HSV-2 infection has been shown to modulate DCs, rendering them more receptive to HIV infection. Here, we investigated the potential mechanisms underlying HSV-2-mediated augmentation of HIV-1 infection. We demonstrated that the presence of HSV-2 enhanced productive HIV-1 infection of DCs and boosted inflammatory and antiviral responses. The HSV-2 augmented HIV-1 infection required intact HSV-2 DNA, but not active HSV-2 DNA replication. Furthermore, the augmented HIV infection of DCs involved the cGAS-STING pathway. Interestingly, we could not see any involvement of TLR2 or TLR3 nor suppression of infection by IFN-β production. The conditioning by HSV-2 in dual exposed DCs decreased protein expression of IFI16, cGAS, STING, and TBK1, which is associated with signaling through the STING pathway. Dual exposure to HSV-2 and HIV-1 gave decreased levels of several HIV-1 restriction factors, especially SAMHD1, TREX1, and APOBEC3G. Activation of the STING pathway in DCs by exposure to both HSV-2 and HIV-1 most likely led to the proteolytic degradation of the HIV-1 restriction factors SAMHD1, TREX1, and APOBEC3G, which should release their normal restriction of HIV infection in DCs. This released their normal restriction of HIV infection in DCs. We showed that HSV-2 reprogramming of cellular signaling pathways and protein expression levels in the DCs provided a setting where HIV-1 can establish a higher productive infection in the DCs. In conclusion, HSV-2 reprogramming opens up DCs for HIV-1 infection and creates a microenvironment favoring HIV-1 transmission.

Herpes simplex virus-2 dynamics as a probe to measure the extremely rapid and spatially localized tissue-resident T-cell response

Herpes simplex virus-2 infection is characterized by frequent episodic shedding in the genital tract. Expansion in HSV-2 viral load early during episodes is extremely rapid. However, the virus invariably peaks within 18 hours and is eliminated nearly as quickly. A critical feature of HSV-2 shedding episodes is their heterogeneity. Some episodes peak at 10⁸ HSV DNA copies, last for weeks due to frequent viral re-expansion, and lead to painful ulcers, while others only reach 10³ HSV DNA copies and are eliminated within hours and without symptoms. Within single micro-environments of infection, tissue-resident CD8+ T cells (T_RM ) appear to contain infection within a few days. Here, we review components of T_RM biology relevant to immune surveillance between HSV-2 shedding episodes and containment of infection upon detection of HSV-2 cognate antigen. We then describe the use of mathematical models to correlate large spatial gradients in T_RM density with the heterogeneity of observed shedding within a single person. We describe how models have been leveraged for clinical trial simulation, as well as future plans to model the interactions of multiple cellular subtypes within mucosa, predict the mechanism of action of therapeutic vaccines, and describe the dynamics of 3-dimensional infection environment during the natural evolution of an HSV-2 lesion.

Mechanisms of Immune Control of Mucosal HSV Infection: A Guide to Rational Vaccine Design

Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection that aside from causing cold sores and genital lesions, causes complications in the immunocompromised and has facilitated a large proportion of HIV acquisition globally. Despite decades of research, there is no prophylactic HSV vaccine ready for use in humans, leaving many questioning whether a prophylactic vaccine is an achievable goal. A previous HSV vaccine trial did have partial success in decreasing acquisition of HSV2–promising evidence that vaccines can prevent acquisition. However, there is still an incomplete understanding of the immune response pathways elicited by HSV after initial mucosal infection and how best to replicate these responses with a vaccine, such that acquisition and colonization of the dorsal root ganglia could be prevented. Another factor to consider in the rational design of an HSV vaccine is adjuvant choice. Understanding the immune responses elicited by different adjuvants and whether lasting humoral and cell-mediated responses are induced is important, especially when studies of past trial vaccines found that a sufficiently protective cell-mediated response was lacking. In this review, we discuss what is known of the immune control involved in initial herpes lesions and reactivation, including the importance of CD4 and CD8 T cells, and the interplay between innate and adaptive immunity in response to primary infection, specifically focusing on the viral relay involved. Additionally, a summary of previous and current vaccine trials, including the components used, immune responses elicited and the feasibility of prophylactic vaccines looking forward, will also be discussed.

IL-36γ induces a transient HSV-2 resistant environment that protects against genital disease and pathogenesis

Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) causes a persistent, lifelong infection that increases risk for sexually transmitted infection acquisition. Both the lack of a vaccine and the need for chronic suppressive therapies to control infection presents the need to further understand immune mechanisms in response to acute HSV-2 infection. The IL-36 cytokines are recently identified members of the IL-1 family and function as inflammatory mediators at epithelial sites. Here, we first used a well-characterized three-dimensional (3-D) human vaginal epithelial cell (VEC) model to understand the role of IL-36γ in the context of HSV-2 infection. In 3-D VEC, IL-36γ is induced by HSV-2 infection, and pretreatment with exogenous IL-36γ significantly reduced HSV-2 replication. To assess the impact of IL-36γ treatment on HSV-2 disease pathogenesis, we employed a lethal genital infection model. We showed that IL-36γ treatment in mice prior to lethal intravaginal challenge significantly limited vaginal viral replication, delayed disease onset, decreased disease severity, and significantly increased survival. We demonstrated that IL-36γ treatment transiently induced pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, and antimicrobial peptides in murine lower female reproductive tract (FRT) tissue and vaginal lavages. Induction of the chemokines CCL20 and KC in IL-36γ treated mice also corresponded with increased polymorphonuclear (PMN) leukocyte infiltration observed in vaginal smears. Altogether, these studies demonstrate that IL-36γ drives the transient production of immune mediators and promotes PMN recruitment in the vaginal microenvironment that increases resistance to HSV-2 infection and disease. Our data indicate that IL-36γ may participate as a key player in host defense mechanisms against invading pathogens in the FRT.

A Fixed Spatial Structure of CD8+ T Cells in Tissue during Chronic HSV-2 Infection

Tissue-resident CD8⁺ T cells (T_rm) can rapidly eliminate virally infected cells, but their heterogeneous spatial distribution may leave gaps in protection within tissues. Although T_rm patrol prior sites of viral replication, murine studies suggest they do not redistribute to adjacent uninfected sites to provide wider protection. We perform mathematical modeling of HSV-2 shedding in Homo sapiens and predict that infection does not induce enough T_rm in many genital tract regions to eliminate shedding; a strict spatial distribution pattern of mucosal CD8⁺ T cell density is maintained throughout chronic infection, and trafficking of T_rm across wide genital tract areas is unlikely. These predictions are confirmed with spatial analysis of CD8⁺ T cell distribution in histopathologic specimens from human genital biopsies. Further simulations predict that the key mechanistic correlate of protection following therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination would be an increase in total T_rm rather than spatial reassortment of these cells. The fixed spatial structure of T_rm induced by HSV-2 is sufficient for rapid elimination of infected cells but only in a portion of genital tract microregions.

Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus-2 suppression with pritelivir predicts trial outcomes

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models estimate the potency of antiviral agents but do not capture viral and immunologic factors that drive the natural dynamics of infection. We designed a mathematical model that synthesizes pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and viral pathogenesis concepts to simulate the activity of pritelivir, a DNA helicase-primase inhibitor that targets herpes simplex virus. Our simulations recapitulate detailed viral kinetic shedding features in five dosage arms of a phase 2 clinical trial. We identify that in vitro estimates of median effective concentration (EC50) are lower than in vivo values for the drug. Nevertheless, pritelivir potently decreases shedding at appropriate doses based on its mode of action and long half-life. Although pritelivir directly inhibits replication in epithelial cells, our model indicates that pritelivir also indirectly limits downstream viral spread from neurons to genital keratinocytes, within genital ulcers, and from ulcer to new mucosal sites of infection. We validate our model based on its ability to predict outcomes in a subsequent trial with a higher dose. The model can therefore be used to optimize dose selection in clinical practice.

Understanding natural herpes simplex virus immunity to inform next-generation vaccine design

Incremental advances in our knowledge of how natural immune control of herpes simplex virus (HSV) develops have yielded insight as to why previous vaccine attempts have only been partially successful, however, our understanding of these pathways, particularly in humans, is still incomplete. Further elucidation of the innate immune events that are responsible for stimulating these effector responses is required to accurately inform vaccine design. An enhanced understanding of the mechanism of action of novel adjuvants will also facilitate the rational choice of adjuvant to optimise such responses. Here we review the reasons for the hitherto partial HSV vaccine success and align these with our current knowledge of how natural HSV immunity develops. In particular, we focus on the innate immune response and the role of dendritic cells in inducing protective T-cell responses and how these pathways might be recapitulated in a vaccine setting.

Mathematical Modeling Predicts that Increased HSV-2 Shedding in HIV-1 Infected Persons Is Due to Poor Immunologic Control in Ganglia and Genital Mucosa

A signature feature of HIV infection is poor control of herpes virus infections, which reactivate from latency and cause opportunistic infections. While the general mechanism underlying this observation is deficient CD4+T-cell function, it is unknown whether increased severity of herpes virus infections is due primarily to poor immune control in latent or lytic sites of infection, or whether CD4+ immunodeficiency leads to more critical downstream deficits in humoral or cell-mediated immunologic responses. Here we compare genital shedding patterns of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) in 98 HIV infected and 98 HIV uninfected men matched on length of infection, HSV-1 serostatus and nationality. We demonstrate that high copy HSV-2 shedding is more frequent in HIV positive men, particularly in participants with CD4+ T-cell count <200/μL. Genital shedding is more frequent due to higher rate of shedding episodes, as well as a higher proportion of prolonged shedding episodes. Peak episode viral load was not found to differ between HIV infected and uninfected participants regardless of CD4+ T-cell count. We simulate a mathematical model which recapitulates these findings and identifies that rate of HSV-2 release from neural tissue increases, duration of mucosal cytolytic immune protection decreases, and cell-free viral lifespan increases in HIV infected participants. These results suggest that increased HSV-2 shedding in HIV infected persons may be caused by impaired immune function in both latent and lytic tissue compartments, with deficits in clearance of HSV-2 infected cells and extracellular virus.

Efficacy of N-methanocarbathymidine against genital herpes simplex virus type 2 shedding and infection in guinea pigs

BACKGROUND

Current approved nucleoside therapies for genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) infections are effective but improved therapies are needed for treatment of both acute and recurrent diseases.

METHODS

The effects of N-methanocarbathymidine were evaluated and compared to acyclovir using guinea pig models of acute and recurrent infection. For acute disease following intravaginal inoculation of 10(6 )pfu HSV-2 (MS strain), animals were treated intraperitoneally beginning 24 h post-infection, and the effects on disease severity, vaginal virus replication, subsequent recurrences, and latent virus loads were evaluated. For evaluation of recurrent infection, animals were treated for 21 days beginning 14 days after infection and disease recurrence and recurrent shedding were evaluated.

RESULTS

Treatment of the acute disease with N-methanocarbathymidine significantly reduced the severity of acute disease and decreased acute vaginal virus shedding more effectively than acyclovir. Significantly, none of the animals developed visible disease in the high-dose N-methanocarbathymidine group and this was the only group in which the number of days with recurrent virus shedding was reduced. Treatment of recurrent disease was equivalent to acyclovir when acyclovir was continuously supplied in the drinking water.

CONCLUSION

N-methanocarbathymidine was effective as therapy for acute and recurrent genital HSV-2 disease in the guinea pig models.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic considerations of antimicrobial drug therapy in cancer patients with kidney dysfunction

Patients with cancer have a high inherent risk of infectious complications. In addition, the incidence of acute and chronic kidney dysfunction rises in this population. Anti-infective drugs often require dosing modifications based on an estimate of kidney function, usually the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, there is still no preferential GFR formula to be used, and in acute kidney injury there is always a considerable time delay between true kidney function and estimated GFR. In most cases, the anti-infective therapy should start with an immediate and high loading dose. Pharmacokinetic as well as pharmacodynamic principles must be applied for further dose adjustment. Anti-infective drugs with time-dependent action should be given with the target of high trough concentrations (e.g., beta lactam antibiotics, penems, vancomycin, antiviral drugs). Anti-infective drugs with concentration-dependent action should be given with the target of high peak concentrations (e.g., aminoglycosides, daptomycin, colistin, quinolones). Our group created a pharmacokinetic database, called NEPharm, hat serves as a reference to obtain reliable dosing regimens of anti-infective drugs in kidney dysfunction as well as renal replacement therapy. To avoid the risk of either too low or too infrequent peak concentrations, we prefer the eliminated fraction rule for dose adjustment calculations.

Image analysis for accurately counting CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in human tissue

In situ detection of specific cells offers a unique perspective on the spatial interactions between host immune cells and specific viral pathogens or cancers. Most immunohistochemistry techniques require manual cell counting on biopsied and fixed tissue sections. The availability of sophisticated software packages for analyzing fluorescently labeled tissue has made it possible to quickly and accurately quantitate the number of positive cells on such slides. Manual cell counting was compared to automatic cell counting using the program CellProfiler. The two techniques were used to count CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in human genital skin biopsies from herpesvirus type 2 (HSV-2) infected subjects. Manual counting and CellProfiler demonstrated high correlation both in cell counting as well as detection of immune cell "clustering" in tissue, an important visceral component of localized inflammation and characteristic of most chronic infections. Overall, CellProfiler is an effective and accurate method in addition to or replacement of manual cell counting of fluorescently labeled biopsies.

Changes in the contribution of genital tract infections to HIV acquisition among Kenyan high-risk women from 1993 to 2012

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to understand temporal trends in the contribution of different genital tract infections to HIV incidence over 20 years of follow-up in a cohort of high-risk women.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

We performed monthly evaluations for HIV, vaginal yeast, bacterial vaginosis, Trichomonas vaginalis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, nonspecific cervicitis, herpes simplex virus type two (HSV-2), genital ulcer disease (GUD) and genital warts. We used Cox regression to evaluate the association between sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV acquisition over four time periods (1993-1997, 1998-2002, 2003-2007, 2008-2012). Models were adjusted for age, workplace, sexual risk behaviour, hormonal contraceptive use and other STIs. The resulting hazard ratios were used to calculate population attributable risk percentage (PAR%).

RESULTS

Between 1993 and 2012, 1964 women contributed 6135 person-years of follow-up. The overall PAR% for each infection was prevalent HSV-2 (48.3%), incident HSV-2 (4.5%), bacterial vaginosis (15.1%), intermediate microbiota (7.5%), vaginal yeast (6.4%), T. vaginalis (1.1%), N. gonorrhoeae (0.9%), nonspecific cervicitis (0.7%), GUD (0.8%) and genital warts (-0.2%). Across the four time periods, the PAR% for prevalent HSV-2 (40.4%, 61.8%, 58.4%, 48.3%) and bacterial vaginosis (17.1%, 19.5%, 14.7%, 17.1%) remained relatively high and had no significant trend for change over time. The PAR% for trichomoniasis, gonorrhoea, GUD and genital warts remained less than 3% across the four periods.

CONCLUSION

Bacterial vaginosis and HSV-2 have consistently been the largest contributors to HIV acquisition risk in the Mombasa Cohort over the past 20 years. Interventions that prevent these conditions would benefit women's health and could reduce their risk of becoming infected with HIV.

Herpes simplex virus type 2-infected dendritic cells produce TNF-α, which enhances CCR5 expression and stimulates HIV production from adjacent infected cells

Prior HSV-2 infection enhances the acquisition of HIV-1 >3-fold. In genital herpes lesions, the superficial layers of stratified squamous epithelium are disrupted, allowing easier access of HIV-1 to Langerhans cells (LC) in the epidermis and perhaps even dendritic cells (DCs) in the outer dermis, as well as to lesion infiltrating activated T lymphocytes and macrophages. Therefore, we examined the effects of coinfection with HIV-1 and HSV-2 on monocyte-derived DCs (MDDC). With simultaneous coinfection, HSV-2 significantly stimulated HIV-1 DNA production 5-fold compared with HIV-1 infection alone. Because <1% of cells were dually infected, this was a field effect. Virus-stripped supernatants from HSV-2-infected MDDCs were shown to enhance HIV-1 infection, as measured by HIV-1-DNA and p24 Ag in MDDCs. Furthermore these supernatants markedly stimulated CCR5 expression on both MDDCs and LCs. TNF-α was by far the most prominent cytokine in the supernatant and also within HSV-2-infected MDDCs. HSV-2 infection of isolated immature epidermal LCs, but not keratinocytes, also produced TNF-α (and low levels of IFN-β). Neutralizing Ab to TNF-α and its receptor, TNF-R1, on MDDCs markedly inhibited the CCR5-stimulating effect of the supernatant. Therefore, these results suggest that HSV-2 infection of DCs in the skin during primary or recurrent genital herpes may enhance HIV-1 infection of adjacent DCs, thus contributing to acquisition of HIV-1 through herpetic lesions.

Rapid and Profound Shifts in the Vaginal Microbiota Following Antibiotic Treatment for Bacterial Vaginosis

BACKGROUND

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a common polymicrobial disease associated with numerous negative reproductive health outcomes, including an increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus acquisition. BV is treatable with antibiotics, but relapse is common. A more detailed understanding of bacterial dynamics during antibiotic therapy for BV could identify conditions that favor establishment, maintenance, and eradication of BV-associated bacterial species, thereby improving treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We used mathematical models to analyze daily quantitative measurements of 11 key bacterial species during metronidazole treatment for 15 cases of BV.

RESULTS

We identified complete reorganization of vaginal bacterial composition within a day of initiating therapy. Although baseline bacterial levels predicted a longer time to clearance, all anaerobic species were eliminated rapidly within a median of 3 days. However, reemergence of BV-associated species was common following treatment cessation. Gardnerella vaginalis, a facultative anaerobe, was cleared more slowly than anaerobic BV-associated species, and levels of G. vaginalis often rebounded during treatment. We observed gradual Lactobacillus species growth, indicating that untargeted microbes fill the transient vacuum formed during treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Under antibiotic pressure, the human microbiome can undergo rapid shifts on a scale of hours. When treatment is stopped, BV-associated bacteria quickly reemerge, suggesting a possible role for intermittent prophylactic treatment.

Herpes simplex virus-2 genital tract shedding is not predictable over months or years in infected persons

Herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) is a chronic reactivating infection that leads to recurrent shedding episodes in the genital tract. A minority of episodes are prolonged, and associated with development of painful ulcers. However, currently, available tools poorly predict viral trajectories and timing of reactivations in infected individuals. We employed principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) to interpret HSV-2 genital tract shedding time series data, as well as simulation output from a stochastic spatial mathematical model. Empirical and model-derived, time-series data gathered over >30 days consists of multiple complex episodes that could not be reduced to a manageable number of descriptive features with PCA and SVD. However, single HSV-2 shedding episodes, even those with prolonged duration and complex morphologies consisting of multiple erratic peaks, were consistently described using a maximum of four dominant features. Modeled and clinical episodes had equivalent distributions of dominant features, implying similar dynamics in real and simulated episodes. We applied linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to simulation output and identified that local immune cell density at the viral reactivation site had a predictive effect on episode duration, though longer term shedding suggested chaotic dynamics and could not be predicted based on spatial patterns of immune cell density. These findings suggest that HSV-2 shedding patterns within an individual are impossible to predict over weeks or months, and that even highly complex single HSV-2 episodes can only be partially predicted based on spatial distribution of immune cell density.

Mathematical models are commonly used to better understand viral infections. Equations are simply rules to describe behavior of viruses, infected cells and the immune response, and are tested for their ability to reproduce serial viral levels in infected persons. Models provide insights regarding the pace of viral replication and timing of the immune response. Here we describe Herpes Simplex Virus-2 (HSV-2), an infection that defies standard modeling approaches. HSV-2 is sexually transmitted, and causes recurrent genital ulcers and frequent asymptomatic genital shedding episodes. Episodes initiate in a seemingly random fashion. Viral loads are erratic and complex during single episodes. We developed a mathematical model, which suggests that in general, shedding variability is due to heterogeneous density of immune cells in the genital tract. Yet, our model is unable to predict viral loads over time in individual patients. Here we employ several statistical tools to demonstrate that HSV-2 shedding is highly unpredictable, akin to weather patterns. Based on available spatial assessments of current viral and immunologic conditions, shedding can only be predicted over a few days, but not over ensuing weeks. These results have important clinical implications, and highlight limitations of attempting to predict outcomes in complex systems with simple mechanistic models.

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding

Herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 is periodically shed in the human genital tract, most often asymptomatically, and most sexual transmissions occur during asymptomatic shedding. It would be helpful to identify a genital viral load threshold necessary for transmission, as clinical interventions that maintain viral quantity below this level would be of high utility. However, because viral expansion, decay and re-expansion kinetics are extremely rapid during shedding episodes, it is impossible to directly measure genital viral load at the time of sexual activity. We developed a mathematical model based on reproducing shedding patterns in transmitting partners, and median number of sex acts prior to transmission in discordant couples, to estimate infectivity of single viral particles in the negative partner's genital tract. We then inferred probability estimates for transmission at different levels of genital tract viral load in the transmitting partner. We predict that transmission is unlikely at viral loads less than 10(4) HSV DNA copies. Moreover, most transmissions occur during prolonged episodes with high viral copy numbers. Many shedding episodes that result in transmission do not reach the threshold of clinical detection, because the ulcer remains very small, highlighting one reason why HSV-2 spreads so effectively within populations.