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Islas JM, Corona-Moreno R, Velasco-Hernández JX. Multiple endemic equilibria in an environmentally-transmitted disease with three disease stages. Math Biosci 2024:109244. [PMID: 38950818 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2024] [Revised: 05/31/2024] [Accepted: 06/25/2024] [Indexed: 07/03/2024]
Abstract
We construct, analyze and interpret a mathematical model for an environmental transmitted disease characterized for the existence of three disease stages: acute, severe and asymptomatic. Besides, we consider that severe and asymptomatic cases may present relapse between them. Transmission dynamics driven by the contact rates only occurs when a parameter R∗>1, as normally occur in directly-transmitted or vector-transmitted diseases, but it will not adequately correspond to a basic reproductive number as it depends on environmental parameters. In this case, the forward transcritical bifurcation that exists for R∗<1, becomes a backward bifurcation, producing multiple steady-states, a hysteresis effect and dependence on initial conditions. A threshold parameter for an epidemic outbreak, independent of R∗ is only the ratio of the external contamination inflow shedding rate to the environmental clearance rate. R∗ describes the strength of the transmission to infectious classes other than the I-(acute) type infections. The epidemic outbreak conditions and the structure of R∗ appearing in this model are both responsible for the existence of endemic states.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Manuel Islas
- Instituto de Matemáticas Unidad Juriquilla, Boulevard Universitario 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, Querétaro, Mexico
| | - Ruth Corona-Moreno
- Instituto de Matemáticas Unidad Juriquilla, Boulevard Universitario 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, Querétaro, Mexico.
| | - Jorge X Velasco-Hernández
- Instituto de Matemáticas Unidad Juriquilla, Boulevard Universitario 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, Querétaro, Mexico
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2
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Amin FG, Elfiky AA, Nassar AM. In silico targeting of SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain from different variants with chaga mushroom terpenoids. J Biomol Struct Dyn 2024; 42:1079-1087. [PMID: 37042960 DOI: 10.1080/07391102.2023.2199084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
Terpenoids from the chaga mushroom have been identified as potential antiviral agents against SARS-CoV-2. This is because it can firmly bind to the viral spike receptor binding domain (RBD) and the auxiliary host cell receptor glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78). The current work examines the association of the chaga mushroom terpenoids with the RBD of various SARS-CoV-2 variants, including alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron. This association was compared to the SARS-CoV-2 wild-type (WT) RBD using molecular docking analysis and molecular dynamics modeling. The outcomes demonstrated that the mutant RBDs, which had marginally greater average binding affinities (better binding) than the WT, were successfully inhibited by the chaga mushroom terpenoids. The results suggest that the chaga mushroom can be effective against various SARS-CoV-2 variants by targeting both the host-cell surface receptor GRP78 and the viral spike RBD.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fatma G Amin
- Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Abdo A Elfiky
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
| | - Aaya M Nassar
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
- Department of Clinical Research and Leadership, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
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3
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Wu Z, Li S, Li X, Tang J, Jiu J, Wang P. Research on the site selection of emergency medical facilities from the perspective of country parks. Sci Rep 2023; 13:20686. [PMID: 38001174 PMCID: PMC10674006 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-47610-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Post-epidemic era, human society entered the stage of epidemic prevention and control normalized, emergency medical facilities are an important means of epidemic prevention and control, attention-needed can provide construction sites for emergency medical facilities. Disaster prevention and green space can provide construction sites for emergency medical facilities. In comparison, it was found that the site selection conditions of country parks and emergency medical facilities were more compatible. Based on the requirement of the latter's location, using the Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process, through to the country park type, effective safety area, space fragmentation, distance away from the water, in the wind, away from the city center distance, hydrogeology, eight factors such as traffic is quantitative, construct the evaluation system of emergency medical facility location. Taking Nanjing as an example, the Nanjing city region within the scope of the 43 country parks comprehensive comparison. Results show that green hill forest park, the highest scores in addition to the traffic time factor, the remaining seven factor score the highest, the most balanced distribution, security, scalability, rehabilitation, convenience, pollution prevention, and evacuation. It can be preferred as the site selection and construction target of emergency medical facilities. Besides, the Youzishan Forest Park and Dongkeng Country Park comprehensive scores and each factor score is higher, can be used as emergency preplan alternative goals. The score results indicate that the evaluation method for severity exhibits higher levels of differentiation, significant validity, and highly consistent assignment of impact factor weights. In view of the different regional land, impact factor weights assignment can be adjusted adjust measures to local conditions, to effectively make use of the existing conditions, avoid adverse factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Wu
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
| | - Shuai Li
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
| | - Xiangxu Li
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
| | - Jiefang Tang
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China.
| | - Jiangtao Jiu
- College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
| | - Pengfei Wang
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
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Hernandez R, Jimenez-Chávez A, De Vizcaya A, Lozano-Alvarez JA, Esquivel K, Medina-Ramírez IE. Synthesis of TiO 2-Cu 2+/CuI Nanocomposites and Evaluation of Antifungal and Cytotoxic Activity. NANOMATERIALS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 13:1900. [PMID: 37446416 DOI: 10.3390/nano13131900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Revised: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023]
Abstract
Fungal infections have become a significant public health concern due to their increasing recurrence and harmful effects on plants, animals, and humans. Opportunistic pathogens (among others from the genera Candida and Aspergillus) can be present in indoor air, becoming a risk for people with suppressed immune systems. Engineered nanomaterials are novel alternatives to traditional antifungal therapy. In this work, copper(I) iodide (CuI) and a copper-doped titanium dioxide-copper(I) iodide (TiO2-Cu2+/CuI) composite nanomaterials (NMs)-were synthesized and tested as antifungal agents. The materials were synthesized using sol-gel (TiO2-Cu2+) and co-precipitation (CuI) techniques. The resulting colloids were evaluated as antifungal agents against Candida parapsilosis and Aspergillus niger strains. The NMs were characterized by XRD, HRTEM, AFM, and DLS to evaluate their physicochemical properties. The NMs present a high size dispersion and different geometrical shapes of agglomerates. The antifungal capacity of the NMs by the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum fungicidal concentration (MFC) was below 15 µg/mL against Candida parapsilosis and below 600 µg/mL against Aspergillus niger for both NMs. Holotomography microscopy showed that the NMs could penetrate cell membranes causing cell death through its rupture and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. Cytotoxicity tests showed that NMs could be safe to use at low concentrations. The synthesized nanomaterials could be potential antifungal agents for biomedical or environmental applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Hernandez
- Department of Chemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Av. Universidad 940, Aguascalientes 20100, Mexico
| | - Arturo Jimenez-Chávez
- Departamento de Toxicología, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados del IPN, Ciudad de Mexico 07360, Mexico
| | - Andrea De Vizcaya
- Departamento de Toxicología, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados del IPN, Ciudad de Mexico 07360, Mexico
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Program in Public Health, Susan and Henry Samueli College of Health Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Juan Antonio Lozano-Alvarez
- Department of Biochemical Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Av. Universidad 940, Aguascalientes 20100, Mexico
| | - Karen Esquivel
- División de Investigación y Posgrado, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Cerro de las Campanas, Santiago de Querétaro 76010, Mexico
| | - Iliana E Medina-Ramírez
- Department of Chemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Av. Universidad 940, Aguascalientes 20100, Mexico
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Hovmøller MS, Thach T, Justesen AF. Global dispersal and diversity of rust fungi in the context of plant health. Curr Opin Microbiol 2023; 71:102243. [PMID: 36462410 DOI: 10.1016/j.mib.2022.102243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Revised: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Long-distance dispersal of plant pathogens at the continental scale may have strong implications on plant health, in particular when incursions result in spread of disease to new territories where the disease was previously absent or insignificant. These dispersions may be caused by airborne transmission of spores or accidental spread via human travel and trade. Recent surveillance efforts of cereal rust fungi have demonstrated that incursion of new strains with superior fitness into areas where the disease is already established may have similar implications on plant health. Since dispersal events are highly stochastic, irrespective of transmission mechanism, critical mitigation efforts include preparedness by coordinated pathogen surveillance activities, host crop diversification, and breeding for disease resistance with low vulnerability to sudden changes in the pathogen population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mogens S Hovmøller
- Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Global Rust Reference Center, Forsøgsvej 1, DK-4200 Slagelse, Denmark.
| | - Tine Thach
- Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Global Rust Reference Center, Forsøgsvej 1, DK-4200 Slagelse, Denmark
| | - Annemarie F Justesen
- Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Global Rust Reference Center, Forsøgsvej 1, DK-4200 Slagelse, Denmark
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Ratliff KM, Oudejans L, Archer J, Calfee W, Gilberry JU, Hook DA, Schoppman WE, Yaga RW, Brooks L, Ryan S. Large-scale evaluation of microorganism inactivation by bipolar ionization and photocatalytic devices. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2023; 227:109804. [PMID: 36407013 PMCID: PMC9652099 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised awareness in the spread of disease via airborne transmission. As a result, there has been increasing interest in technologies that claim to reduce concentrations of airborne pathogens in indoor environments. The efficacy of many of these emerging technologies is not fully understood, and the testing that has been done is often conducted at a small scale and not representative of applied settings. There is currently no standard test method for evaluating air treatment technologies, making it difficult to compare results across studies or technology types. Here, a consistent testing approach in an operational-scale test chamber with a mock recirculating heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system was used to evaluate the efficacy of bipolar ionization and photocatalytic devices against the non-enveloped bacteriophage MS2 in the air and on surfaces. Statistically significant differences between replicate sets of technology tests and control tests (without technologies active) are apparent after 1 h, ranging to a maximum of 0.88 log10 reduction for the bipolar ionization tests and 1.8 log10 reduction for the photocatalytic device tests. It should be noted that ozone concentrations were elevated above background concentrations in the test chamber during the photocatalytic device testing. No significant differences were observed between control and technology tests in terms of the amount of MS2 deposited or inactivated on surfaces during testing. A standardized, large-scale testing approach, with replicate testing and time-matched control conditions, is necessary for contextualizing laboratory efficacy results, translating them to real-world conditions, and for facilitating technology comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M Ratliff
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Lukas Oudejans
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - John Archer
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Worth Calfee
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | | | | | - Robert W Yaga
- Jacobs Technology Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Lance Brooks
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Shawn Ryan
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
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Moreno T, Gibbons W. Aerosol transmission of human pathogens: From miasmata to modern viral pandemics and their preservation potential in the Anthropocene record. GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 2022; 13:101282. [PMID: 38620922 PMCID: PMC8356732 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2021] [Revised: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Ongoing uncertainty over the relative importance of aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is in part rooted in the history of medical science and our understanding of how epidemic diseases can spread through human populations. Ancient Greek medical theory held that such illnesses are transmitted by airborne pathogenic emanations containing particulate matter ("miasmata"). Notable Roman and medieval scholars such as Varro, Ibn al-Khatib and Fracastoro developed these ideas, combining them with early germ theory and the concept of contagion. A widely held but vaguely defined belief in toxic miasmatic mists as a dominant causative agent in disease propagation was overtaken by the science of 19th century microbiology and epidemiology, especially in the study of cholera, which was proven to be mainly transmitted by contaminated water. Airborne disease transmission came to be viewed as burdened by a dubious historical reputation and difficult to demonstrate convincingly. A breakthrough came with the classic mid-20th century work of Wells, Riley and Mills who proved how expiratory aerosols (their "droplet nuclei") could transport still-infectious tuberculosis bacteria through ventilation systems. The topic of aerosol transmission of pathogenic respiratory diseases assumed a new dimension with the mid-late 20th century "Great Acceleration" of an increasingly hypermobile human population repeatedly infected by different strains of zoonotic viruses, and has taken centre stage this century in response to outbreaks of new respiratory infections that include coronaviruses. From a geoscience perspective, the consequences of pandemic-status diseases such as COVID-19, produced by viral pathogens utilising aerosols to infect a human population currently approaching 8 billion, are far-reaching and unprecedented. The obvious and sudden impacts on for example waste plastic production, water and air quality and atmospheric chemistry are accelerating human awareness of current environmental challenges. As such, the "anthropause" lockdown enforced by COVID-19 may come to be seen as a harbinger of change great enough to be preserved in the Anthropocene stratal record.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teresa Moreno
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDAEA-CSIC, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Markandan K, Tiong YW, Sankaran R, Subramanian S, Markandan UD, Chaudhary V, Numan A, Khalid M, Walvekar R. Emergence of infectious diseases and role of advanced nanomaterials in point-of-care diagnostics: a review. Biotechnol Genet Eng Rev 2022:1-89. [PMID: 36243900 DOI: 10.1080/02648725.2022.2127070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Infectious outbreaks are the foremost global public health concern, challenging the current healthcare system, which claims millions of lives annually. The most crucial way to control an infectious outbreak is by early detection through point-of-care (POC) diagnostics. POC diagnostics are highly advantageous owing to the prompt diagnosis, which is economical, simple and highly efficient with remote access capabilities. In particular, utilization of nanomaterials to architect POC devices has enabled highly integrated and portable (compact) devices with enhanced efficiency. As such, this review will detail the factors influencing the emergence of infectious diseases and methods for fast and accurate detection, thus elucidating the underlying factors of these infections. Furthermore, it comprehensively highlights the importance of different nanomaterials in POCs to detect nucleic acid, whole pathogens, proteins and antibody detection systems. Finally, we summarize findings reported on nanomaterials based on advanced POCs such as lab-on-chip, lab-on-disc-devices, point-of-action and hospital-on-chip. To this end, we discuss the challenges, potential solutions, prospects of integrating internet-of-things, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and data clouding to achieve intelligent POCs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kalaimani Markandan
- Temasek Laboratories, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Drive, Singapore
- Faculty of Engineering, Technology and Built Environment, UCSI University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Yong Wei Tiong
- NUS Environmental Research Institute, National University of Singapore, Engineering Drive, Singapore
| | - Revathy Sankaran
- Graduate School, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Sakthinathan Subramanian
- Department of Materials & Mineral Resources Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology (NTUT), Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | - Vishal Chaudhary
- Research Cell & Department of Physics, Bhagini Nivedita College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
| | - Arshid Numan
- Graphene & Advanced 2D Materials Research Group (GAMRG), School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
- Sunway Materials Smart Science & Engineering (SMS2E) Research Cluster School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Mohammad Khalid
- Graphene & Advanced 2D Materials Research Group (GAMRG), School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
- Sunway Materials Smart Science & Engineering (SMS2E) Research Cluster School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Rashmi Walvekar
- Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Energy and Chemical Engineering, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Selangor, Malaysia
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Basak M, Mitra S, Bandyopadhyay D. Pathways to community transmission of COVID-19 due to rapid evaporation of respiratory virulets. J Colloid Interface Sci 2022; 619:229-245. [PMID: 35397458 PMCID: PMC8986321 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcis.2022.03.098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2021] [Revised: 03/06/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
HYPOTHESIS The formation of virus-laden colloidal respiratory microdroplets - the sneeze or cough virulets and their evaporation driven miniaturization in the open air are found to have a significant impact on the community transmission of COVID-19 pandemic. SIMULATION DETAILS We simulate the motions and trajectories of virulets by employing laminar fluid flow coupled with droplet tracing physics. A force field analysis has been included considering the gravity, drag, and inertial forces to unleash some of the finer features of virulet trajectories leading to the droplet and airborne transmissions of the virus. Furthermore, an analytical model corroborates temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) controlled droplet miniaturization. RESULTS The study elucidates that the tiny (1-50 µm) and intermediate (60-100 µm) size ranged virulets tend to form bioaerosol and facilitate an airborne transmission while the virulets of larger dimensions (300 to 500 µm) are more prone to gravity dominated droplet transmission. Subsequently, the mapping between the T and RH guided miniaturization of virulets with the COVID-19 cases for six different cities across the globe justifies the significant contribution of miniaturization-based bioaerosol formation for community transmission of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mitali Basak
- Centre for Nanotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam 781039, India
| | - Shirsendu Mitra
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam 781039, India
| | - Dipankar Bandyopadhyay
- Centre for Nanotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam 781039, India,Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam 781039, India,School of Health Sciences and Technology,Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam 781039, India,Corresponding author at: Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati 781039, India
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Nassar A, Ibrahim IM, Amin FG, Magdy M, Elgharib AM, Azzam EB, Nasser F, Yousry K, Shamkh IM, Mahdy SM, Elfiky AA. A Review of Human Coronaviruses' Receptors: The Host-Cell Targets for the Crown Bearing Viruses. Molecules 2021; 26:6455. [PMID: 34770863 PMCID: PMC8587140 DOI: 10.3390/molecules26216455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2021] [Revised: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
A novel human coronavirus prompted considerable worry at the end of the year 2019. Now, it represents a significant global health and economic burden. The newly emerged coronavirus disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the primary reason for the COVID-19 global pandemic. According to recent global figures, COVID-19 has caused approximately 243.3 million illnesses and 4.9 million deaths. Several human cell receptors are involved in the virus identification of the host cells and entering them. Hence, understanding how the virus binds to host-cell receptors is crucial for developing antiviral treatments and vaccines. The current work aimed to determine the multiple host-cell receptors that bind with SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses for the purpose of cell entry. Extensive research is needed using neutralizing antibodies, natural chemicals, and therapeutic peptides to target those host-cell receptors in extremely susceptible individuals. More research is needed to map SARS-CoV-2 cell entry pathways in order to identify potential viral inhibitors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aaya Nassar
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
| | - Ibrahim M. Ibrahim
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
| | - Fatma G. Amin
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
- Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21519, Egypt
| | - Merna Magdy
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
| | - Ahmed M. Elgharib
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
| | - Eman B. Azzam
- Physics Department, Medical Biophysics Division, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo 11511, Egypt;
| | - Filopateer Nasser
- Biochemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt;
| | - Kirllos Yousry
- Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo 11511, Egypt;
| | | | - Samah M. Mahdy
- National Museum of Egyptian Civilization, Ain Elsira-Elfustat, Cairo 11511, Egypt;
| | - Abdo A. Elfiky
- Biophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza 12511, Egypt; (I.M.I.); (F.G.A.); (M.M.); (A.M.E.)
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11
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Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission. Appl Environ Microbiol 2021; 87:e0126221. [PMID: 34432495 DOI: 10.1128/aem.01262-21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk-a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease "sparks" that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks. IMPORTANCE Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be important to disease outbreaks. We describe a new physics- and biology-based theory for the important case in which individuals are infected by a single airborne particle (even though numerous infectious particles can be emitted into the air and inhaled). Based on this theory, we propose a new epidemiological metric, regional relative risk, that compares the risk between two geographic regions (in theory, regions can range from individual rooms to large areas). Our modeling of transmission events predicts that for many scenarios of interest, minimal information is required to use this metric for locations 50 m to 20 km downwind. This prediction is consistent with data from prior disease outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as indoor environments. Our results may be applicable to many airborne diseases a priori, as these results depend on the physics of airborne particulate dispersion.
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