Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Cytolytic circumsporozoite-specific memory CD4+ T cell clones are expanded during Plasmodium falciparum infection

Clinical immunity against Plasmodium falciparum infection develops in residents of malaria endemic regions, manifesting in reduced clinical symptoms during infection and in protection against severe disease but the mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we compare the cellular and humoral immune response of clinically immune (0-1 episode over 18 months) and susceptible (at least 3 episodes) during a mild episode of Pf malaria infection in a malaria endemic region of Malawi, by analysing peripheral blood samples using high dimensional mass cytometry (CyTOF), spectral flow cytometry and single-cell transcriptomic analyses. In the clinically immune, we find increased proportions of circulating follicular helper T cells and classical monocytes, while the humoral immune response shows characteristic age-related differences in the protected. Presence of memory CD4+ T cell clones with a strong cytolytic ZEB2+ T helper 1 effector signature, sharing identical T cell receptor clonotypes and recognizing the Pf-derived circumsporozoite protein (CSP) antigen are found in the blood of the Pf-infected participants gaining protection. Moreover, in clinically protected participants, ZEB2+ memory CD4+ T cells express lower level of inhibitory and chemotactic receptors. We thus propose that clonally expanded ZEB2+ CSP-specific cytolytic memory CD4+ Th1 cells may contribute to clinical immunity against the sporozoite and liver-stage Pf malaria.

Analysis of Recurrent Times-to-Clinical Malaria Episodes and Plasmodium falciparum Parasitemia: A Joint Modeling Approach Applied to a Cohort Data

Background

Recurrent clinical malaria episodes due to Plasmodium falciparum parasite infection are common in endemic regions. With each infection, acquired immunity develops, making subsequent disease episodes less likely. To capture the effect of acquired immunity to malaria, it may be necessary to model recurrent clinical disease episodes jointly with P. falciparum parasitemia data. A joint model of longitudinal parasitemia and time-to-first clinical malaria episode (single-event joint model) may be inaccurate because acquired immunity is lost when subsequent episodes are excluded. This study's informativeness assessed whether joint modeling of recurrent clinical malaria episodes and parasitemia is more accurate than a single-event joint model where the subsequent episodes are ignored.

Methods

The single event joint model comprised Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) sub-model for time-to-first clinical malaria episode and Negative Binomial (NB) mixed-effects sub-model for the longitudinal parasitemia. The recurrent events joint model extends the survival sub-model to a Gamma shared frailty model to include all recurrent clinical episodes. The models were applied to cohort data from Malawi. Simulations were also conducted to assess the performance of the model under different conditions.

Results

The recurrent events joint model, which yielded higher hazard ratios of clinical malaria, was more precise and in most cases produced smaller standard errors than the single-event joint model; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42, [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22, 2.03] vs. HR = 1.29, [95% CI:1.60, 2.45] among participants who reported not to use LLINs every night compared to those who used the nets every night; HR = 0.96, [ 95% CI: 0.94, 0.98] vs. HR = 0.81, [95% CI: 0.75, 0.88] for each 1-year increase in participants' age; and HR = 1.36, [95% CI: 1.05, 1.75] vs. HR = 1.10, [95% CI: 0.83, 4.11] for observations during the rainy season compared to the dry season.

Conclusion

The recurrent events joint model in this study provides a way of estimating the risk of recurrent clinical malaria in a cohort where the effect of immunity on malaria disease acquired due to P. falciparum parasitemia with aging is captured. The simulation study has shown that if correctly specified, the recurrent events joint model can give risk estimates with low bias.

Contrasting Asymptomatic and Drug Resistance Gene Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in Ghana: Implications on Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Ghana. Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) using a combination of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine has been implemented since 2015 in northern Ghana where malaria transmission is intense and seasonal. In this study, we estimated the prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum carriers in three ecological zones of Ghana, and compared the sensitivity and specificity of different molecular methods in identifying asymptomatic infections. Moreover, we examined the frequency of mutations in pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfdhfr, and pfdhps that relate to the ongoing SMC. A total of 535 asymptomatic schoolchildren were screened by microscopy and PCR (18s rRNA and TARE-2) methods. Among all samples, 28.6% were detected as positive by 18S nested PCR, whereas 19.6% were detected by microscopy. A high PCR-based asymptomatic prevalence was observed in the north (51%) compared to in the central (27.8%) and south (16.9%). The prevalence of pfdhfr-N51I/C59R/S108N/pfdhps-A437G quadruple mutant associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance was significantly higher in the north where SMC was implemented. Compared to 18S rRNA, TARE-2 serves as a more sensitive molecular marker for detecting submicroscopic asymptomatic infections in high and low transmission settings. These findings establish a baseline for monitoring P. falciparum prevalence and resistance in response to SMC over time.

Micro-epidemiology and spatial heterogeneity of P. vivax parasitaemia in riverine communities of the Peruvian Amazon: A multilevel analysis

Malaria has steadily increased in the Peruvian Amazon over the last five years. This study aimed to determine the parasite prevalence and micro-geographical heterogeneity of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia in communities of the Peruvian Amazon. Four cross-sectional active case detection surveys were conducted between May and July 2015 in four riverine communities in Mazan district. Analysis of 2785 samples of 820 individuals nested within 154 households for Plasmodium parasitaemia was carried out using light microscopy and qPCR. The spatio-temporal distribution of Plasmodium parasitaemia, dominated by P. vivax, was shown to cluster at both household and community levels. Of enrolled individuals, 47% had at least one P. vivax parasitaemia and 10% P. falciparum, by qPCR, both of which were predominantly sub-microscopic and asymptomatic. Spatial analysis detected significant clustering in three communities. Our findings showed that communities at small-to-moderate spatial scales differed in P. vivax parasite prevalence, and multilevel Poisson regression models showed that such differences were influenced by factors such as age, education, and location of households within high-risk clusters, as well as factors linked to a local micro-geographic context, such as travel and occupation. Complex transmission patterns were found to be related to human mobility among communities in the same micro-basin.

Modeling the Impact of Bed-Net Use and Treatment on Malaria Transmission Dynamics

We modeled the impact of bed-net use and insecticide treated nets (ITNs), temperature, and treatment on malaria transmission dynamics using ordinary differential equations. To achieve this we formulated a simple model of mosquito biting rate that depends on temperature and usage of insecticides treated bed nets. We conducted global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHC) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) in order to find the most effective parameters that affect malaria transmission dynamics. We established the existence of the region where the model is epidemiologically feasible. We conducted the stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium by the threshold parameter. We found the condition for the existence of the endemic equilibrium and provided necessary condition for its stability. Our results show that the peak of mosquitoes biting rate occurs at a range of temperature values not on a single value as previously reported in literature. The results also show that the combination of treatment and ITNs usage is the most effective intervention strategy towards control and eradication of malaria transmissions. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the biting rate and the mosquitoes death rates are the most important parameters in the dynamics of malaria transmission.

A prospective cohort study to assess the micro-epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria in Ilha Josina Machel (Manhiça, Mozambique)

Background

After the decrease in clinical malaria incidence observed in Mozambique until 2009, a steady resurgence of cases per year has been reported nationally, reaching alarming levels in 2014. However, little is known about the clinical profile of the cases presented, or the possible epidemiological factors contributing to the resurgence of cases.

Methods

An analysis of surveillance data collected between July 2003 and June 2013 in the high malaria-transmission area of Ilha Josina Machel (Southern Mozambique) through a paediatric outpatient morbidity surveillance system was conducted to calculate hospital-based clinical malaria rates, slide-positivity rates, and minimum community-based incidence rates (MCBIRs) and incidence rate ratios per malaria season in children younger than 15 years of age. Clinical malaria was defined as a fever ≥37.5 °C or a reported fever in the previous 24 h with a positive blood smear. Yearly mean age, geometric mean parasitaemia (GMP) and mean packed cell volume (PCV) were also described for all clinical malaria cases and compared between seasons using DID analysis or ANOVA tests.

Results

During the study period, the percentage of outpatient visits presenting with confirmed clinical malaria decreased from 51 % in the 2003–2004 season to 23 % in 2008–2009, followed by an increase back to 51 % in 2012–2013. The yearly mean age of cases significantly increased from 2.9 (95 % CI 2.8–3.0) in 2003–2004 to 5.7 (95 % CI 5.6–5.7) in 2012–2013, compared to non-malaria cases. An increase in mean PCV levels was also observed (p < 0.001), as well as in GMPs: from 5778 parasites/µL in 2002–2003 to 17,316 parasites/µL in 2012–2013 (p < 0.001) mainly driven by an increase in GMP in children older than 1 year of age. MCBIRs in infants decreased by 70 % (RR = 0.3, p < 0.001) between 2003–2004 and 2012–2013. Incidence diminished by a third among children 1- to 4-years between 2003 and 2007, although such drop was unsustained as observed in 2012–2013 (RR = 1.0, 95 % CI 0.9–1.0). Finally, the incidence among children 5–14 years was 3.8 (95 % CI 3.4–4.3) times higher in 2012–2013 compared to 2003–2004.

Conclusion

Since 2003, Ilha Josina Machel observed a significant reduction of clinical malaria cases which was followed by an upsurge, following the national trend. A shift in the age distribution towards older children was observed, indicating that the changes in the transmission intensity patterns resulted in a slower acquisition of the naturally acquired immunity to malaria in children.

Cost-effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine compared with artemether-lumefantrine for treating uncomplicated malaria in children at a district hospital in Tanzania

Background

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DhP) is highly recommended for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. This study aims to compare the costs, health benefits and cost-effectiveness of DhP and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) alongside “do-nothing” as a baseline comparator in order to consider the appropriateness of DhP as a first-line anti-malarial drug for children in Tanzania.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a Markov decision model, from a provider’s perspective. The study used cost data from Tanzania and secondary effectiveness data from a review of articles from sub-Saharan Africa. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to incorporate uncertainties in the model parameters. In addition, sensitivity analyses were used to test plausible variations of key parameters and the key assumptions were tested in scenario analyses.

Results

The model predicts that DhP is more cost-effective than AL, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$ 12.40 per DALY averted. This result relies on the assumption that compliance to treatment with DhP is higher than that with AL due to its relatively simple once-a-day dosage regimen. When compliance was assumed to be identical for the two drugs, AL was more cost-effective than DhP with an ICER of US$ 12.54 per DALY averted. DhP is, however, slightly more likely to be cost-effective compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 150 per DALY averted.

Conclusion

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is a very cost-effective anti-malarial drug. The findings support its use as an alternative first-line drug for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in children in Tanzania and other sub-Saharan African countries with similar healthcare infrastructures and epidemiology of malaria.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-363) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

On the coupling of two models of the human immune response to an antigen

The development of mathematical models of the immune response allows a better understanding of the multifaceted mechanisms of the defense system. The main purpose of this work is to present a scheme for coupling distinct models of different scales and aspects of the immune system. As an example, we propose a new model where the local tissue inflammation processes are simulated with partial differential equations (PDEs) whereas a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is used as a model for the systemic response. The simulation of distinct scenarios allows the analysis of the dynamics of various immune cells in the presence of an antigen. Preliminary results of this approach with a sensitivity analysis of the coupled model are shown but further validation is still required.

Efficacy and safety of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine during 18 months after vaccination: a phase 3 randomized, controlled trial in children and young infants at 11 African sites

BACKGROUND

A malaria vaccine could be an important addition to current control strategies. We report the safety and vaccine efficacy (VE) of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine during 18 mo following vaccination at 11 African sites with varying malaria transmission.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

6,537 infants aged 6-12 wk and 8,923 children aged 5-17 mo were randomized to receive three doses of RTS,S/AS01 or comparator vaccine. VE against clinical malaria in children during the 18 mo after vaccine dose 3 (per protocol) was 46% (95% CI 42% to 50%) (range 40% to 77%; VE, p<0.01 across all sites). VE during the 20 mo after vaccine dose 1 (intention to treat [ITT]) was 45% (95% CI 41% to 49%). VE against severe malaria, malaria hospitalization, and all-cause hospitalization was 34% (95% CI 15% to 48%), 41% (95% CI 30% to 50%), and 19% (95% CI 11% to 27%), respectively (ITT). VE against clinical malaria in infants was 27% (95% CI 20% to 32%, per protocol; 27% [95% CI 21% to 33%], ITT), with no significant protection against severe malaria, malaria hospitalization, or all-cause hospitalization. Post-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite antibody geometric mean titer varied from 348 to 787 EU/ml across sites in children and from 117 to 335 EU/ml in infants (per protocol). VE waned over time in both age categories (Schoenfeld residuals p<0.001). The number of clinical and severe malaria cases averted per 1,000 children vaccinated ranged across sites from 37 to 2,365 and from -1 to 49, respectively; corresponding ranges among infants were -10 to 1,402 and -13 to 37, respectively (ITT). Meningitis was reported as a serious adverse event in 16/5,949 and 1/2,974 children and in 9/4,358 and 3/2,179 infants in the RTS,S/AS01 and control groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

RTS,S/AS01 prevented many cases of clinical and severe malaria over the 18 mo after vaccine dose 3, with the highest impact in areas with the greatest malaria incidence. VE was higher in children than in infants, but even at modest levels of VE, the number of malaria cases averted was substantial. RTS,S/AS01 could be an important addition to current malaria control in Africa.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00866619 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Modeling malaria infection and immunity against variant surface antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa

After remarkable success of vector control campaigns worldwide, concerns about loss of immunity against Plasmodium falciparum due to lack of exposure to the parasite are relevant since an increase of severe cases in less immune individuals is expected. We present a mathematical model to investigate the impact of reducing exposure to the parasite on the immune repertoire against P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) variants. The model was parameterized with data from Príncipe Island, West Africa, and applied to simulate two alternative transmission scenarios: one where control measures are continued to eventually drive the system to elimination; and another where the effort is interrupted after 6 years of its initiation and the system returns to the initial transmission potential. Population dynamics of parasite prevalence predict that in a few years infection levels return to the pre-control values, while the re-acquisition of the immune repertoire against PfEMP1 is slower, creating a window for increased severity. The model illustrates the consequences of loss of immune repertoire against PfEMP1 in a given setting and can be applied to other regions where similar data may be available.

Population-level effects of clinical immunity to malaria

BACKGROUND

Despite a resurgence in control efforts, malaria remains a serious public-health problem, causing millions of deaths each year. One factor that complicates malaria-control efforts is clinical immunity, the acquired immune response that protects individuals from symptoms despite the presence of parasites. Clinical immunity protects individuals against disease, but its effects at the population level are complex. It has been previously suggested that under certain circumstances, malaria is bistable: it can persist, if established, in areas where it would not be able to invade. This phenomenon has important implications for control: in areas where malaria is bistable, if malaria could be eliminated until immunity wanes, it would not be able to re-invade.

METHODS

Here, we formulate an analytically tractable, dynamical model of malaria transmission to explore the possibility that clinical immunity can lead to bistable malaria dynamics. We summarize what is known and unknown about the parameters underlying this simple model, and solve the model to find a criterion that determines under which conditions we expect bistability to occur.

RESULTS

We show that bistability can only occur when clinically immune individuals are more "effective" at transmitting malaria than naïve individuals are. We show how this "effectiveness" includes susceptibility, ability to transmit, and duration of infectiousness. We also show that the amount of extra effectiveness necessary depends on the ratio between the duration of infectiousness and the time scale at which immunity is lost. Thus, if the duration of immunity is long, even a small amount of extra transmission effectiveness by clinically immune individuals could lead to bistability.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a simple, plausible mechanism by which clinical immunity may be causing bistability in human malaria transmission. We suggest that simple summary parameters--in particular, the relative transmission effectiveness of clinically immune individuals and the time scale at which clinical immunity is lost--are key to determining where and whether bistability is happening. We hope these findings will guide future efforts to measure transmission parameters and to guide malaria control efforts.

The dynamics of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum infection

Severe malaria occurs predominantly in young children and immunity to clinical disease is associated with cumulative exposure in holoendemic settings. The relative contribution of immunity against various stages of the parasite life cycle that results in controlling infection and limiting disease is not well understood. Here we analyse the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection after treatment in a cohort of 197 healthy study participants of different ages in order to model naturally acquired immunity. We find that both delayed time-to-infection and reductions in asymptomatic parasitaemias in older age groups can be explained by immunity that reduces the growth of blood stage as opposed to liver stage parasites. We found that this mechanism would require at least two components – a rapidly acting strain-specific component, as well as a slowly acquired cross-reactive or general immunity to all strains. Analysis and modelling of malaria infection dynamics and naturally acquired immunity with age provides important insights into what mechanisms of immune control may be harnessed by malaria vaccine strategists.

Human malaria infections resulting in serious complications and death occur predominantly in young children, and resistance is gradually acquired with repeated exposure. Malaria parasites have two major stages within the human host during its life cycle: an initial liver stage, and the subsequent blood stage, where parasites replicate in and destroy red blood cells. The mechanisms of acquired resistance to severe malaria may involve immunity to both the liver and blood stage parasites. However the relative contribution of each type of immunity is not yet understood. To gain novel insight, we have analysed data from a malaria exposed cohort from western Kenya. We used mathematical modeling to understand what form of immunity is consistent with the observed rates of reinfection in adults and children seen in the field study data. We found that the reinfection pattern can be completely explained by blood stage immunity. Moreover, the blood stage immunity must consist of rapidly-induced strain-specific immunity that clears individual infections, and general immunity that accumulates slowly and decreases the average parasite growth rate with age. Understanding the dynamics of naturally acquired immunity and infection provides important insights for effective vaccine development.

Pierre TG, Davis TME. Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities

Background

Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns).

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities.

Conclusions/Significance

Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Modelling malaria population structure and its implications for control

Mathematical models of malaria transmission have been used to inform the design of malaria control programs since the mid 20th century, and many of these models have provided useful insights into the complexity of the disease. Among developing countries, however and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. One of the main difficulties in controlling the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, is its genetic diversity, which confounds attempts to design an effective vaccine. The population structure of P. falciparum remains poorly understood but plays a key role in determining epidemiological patterns of disease and the development of immunity. We discuss the seminal model of malaria transmission developed by Ross and MacDonald, and the modifications that have been made since to include more realism. We show that age profiles of disease and serological data support a theoretical model in which the parasite population is diverse and structured into several antigenic types and highlight the implications of this structure for controlling malaria. Lastly, we discuss the current sequence data on parasite antigen genes that are important for the aquisition of immunity, and the results of a new analysis of P. falciparum population structure at the genomic level.

Immune selection and within-host competition can structure the repertoire of variant surface antigens in Plasmodium falciparum--a mathematical model

Background

The evolutionary mechanisms structuring the expression pattern of variant surface antigen (VSA) families that allow pathogens to evade immune responses and establish chronic and repeated infections pose major challenges to theoretical research. In Plasmodium falciparum, the best-studied VSA family is erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1). Each parasite genome encodes about 60 PfEMP1 variants, which are important virulence factors and major targets of host antibody responses. Transcriptional switching is the basis of clonal PfEMP1 variation and immune evasion. A relatively conserved subset of PfEMP1 variants tends to dominate in non-immune patients and in patients with severe malaria, while more diverse subsets relate to uncomplicated infection and higher levels of pre-existing protective immunity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we use the available molecular and serological evidence regarding VSAs, in particular PfEMP1, to formulate a mathematical model of the evolutionary mechanisms shaping VSA organization and expression patterns. The model integrates the transmission dynamics between hosts and the competitive interactions within hosts, based on the hypothesis that the VSAs can be organized into so-called dominance blocks, which characterize their competitive potential. The model reproduces immunological trends observed in field data, and predicts an evolutionary stable balance between inter-clonally conserved dominance blocks that are highly competitive within-host and diverse blocks that are favoured by immune selection at the population level.

Conclusions/Significance

The application of a monotonic dominance profile to VSAs encoded by a gene family generates two opposing selective forces and, consequently, two distinct clusters of genes emerge in adaptation to naïve and partially immune hosts, respectively.

Effects of treatment and drug resistance on the transmission dynamics of malaria in endemic areas

We present a mathematical model for malaria treatment and spread of drug resistance in an endemic population. The model considers treated humans that remain infectious for some time and partially immune humans who are also infectious to mosquitoes although their infectiousness is always less than their non immune counterparts. The model is formulated by considering delays in the latent periods in both mosquito and human populations and in the period within which partial immunity is lost. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions is performed. Analysis of the reproductive numbers shows that if the treated humans become immediately uninfectious to mosquitoes then treatment will always reduce the number of sensitive infections. If however treated humans are infectious then for treatment to effectively reduce the number of sensitive infections, the ratio of the infectious period of the treated humans to the infectious period of the untreated humans multiplied by the ratio of the transmission rate from a treated human to the transmission rate of an untreated human should be less than one. Our results show that the spread of drug resistance with treatment as a control strategy depends on the ratio of the infectious periods of treated and untreated humans and on the transmission rates from infectious humans with resistant and sensitive infections. Numerical analysis is performed to assess the effects of treatment on the spread of resistance and infection. The study provides insight into the possible intervention strategies to be employed in malaria endemic populations with resistant parasites by identifying important parameters.

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.

Blood parasites in owls with conservation implications for the Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis)

The three subspecies of Spotted Owl (Northern, Strix occidentalis caurina; California, S. o. occidentalis; and Mexican, S. o. lucida) are all threatened by habitat loss and range expansion of the Barred Owl (S. varia). An unaddressed threat is whether Barred Owls could be a source of novel strains of disease such as avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.) or other blood parasites potentially harmful for Spotted Owls. Although Barred Owls commonly harbor Plasmodium infections, these parasites have not been documented in the Spotted Owl. We screened 111 Spotted Owls, 44 Barred Owls, and 387 owls of nine other species for haemosporidian parasites (Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium, and Haemoproteus spp.). California Spotted Owls had the greatest number of simultaneous multi-species infections (44%). Additionally, sequencing results revealed that the Northern and California Spotted Owl subspecies together had the highest number of Leucocytozoon parasite lineages (n = 17) and unique lineages (n = 12). This high level of sequence diversity is significant because only one Leucocytozoon species (L. danilewskyi) has been accepted as valid among all owls, suggesting that L. danilewskyi is a cryptic species. Furthermore, a Plasmodium parasite was documented in a Northern Spotted Owl for the first time. West Coast Barred Owls had a lower prevalence of infection (15%) when compared to sympatric Spotted Owls (S. o. caurina 52%, S. o. occidentalis 79%) and Barred Owls from the historic range (61%). Consequently, Barred Owls on the West Coast may have a competitive advantage over the potentially immune compromised Spotted Owls.

Strain theory of malaria: the first 50 years

From the 1920s to the 1970s, a large body of principles and evidence accumulated about the existence and character of 'strains' among the Plasmodium species responsible for human malaria. An extensive research literature examined the degree to which strains were autonomous, stable biological entities, distinguishable by clinical, epidemiological or other features, and how this knowledge could be used to benefit medical and public health practice. Strain theory in this era was based largely on parasite phenotypes related to clinical virulence, reactions to anti-malarial drugs, infectivity to mosquitoes, antigenic properties and host immunity, latency and relapse. Here we review the search for a definition of 'strain', suggest how the data and discussion shaped current understandings of many aspects of malaria and sketch a number of specific connections with perspectives from the past 30 years.

Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model

Acquisition of partially protective immunity is a dominant feature of the epidemiology of malaria among exposed individuals. The processes that determine the acquisition of immunity to clinical disease and to asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites are poorly understood, in part because of a lack of validated immunological markers of protection. Using mathematical models, we seek to better understand the processes that determine observed epidemiological patterns. We have developed an age-structured mathematical model of malaria transmission in which acquired immunity can act in three ways ("immunity functions"): reducing the probability of clinical disease, speeding the clearance of parasites, and increasing tolerance to subpatent infections. Each immunity function was allowed to vary in efficacy depending on both age and malaria transmission intensity. The results were compared to age patterns of parasite prevalence and clinical disease in endemic settings in northeastern Tanzania and The Gambia. Two types of immune function were required to reproduce the epidemiological age-prevalence curves seen in the empirical data; a form of clinical immunity that reduces susceptibility to clinical disease and develops with age and exposure (with half-life of the order of five years or more) and a form of anti-parasite immunity which results in more rapid clearance of parasitaemia, is acquired later in life and is longer lasting (half-life of >20 y). The development of anti-parasite immunity better reproduced observed epidemiological patterns if it was dominated by age-dependent physiological processes rather than by the magnitude of exposure (provided some exposure occurs). Tolerance to subpatent infections was not required to explain the empirical data. The model comprising immunity to clinical disease which develops early in life and is exposure-dependent, and anti-parasite immunity which develops later in life and is not dependent on the magnitude of exposure, appears to best reproduce the pattern of parasite prevalence and clinical disease by age in different malaria transmission settings. Understanding the effector mechanisms underlying these two immune functions will assist in the design of transmission-reducing interventions against malaria.

Age interactions in the development of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum and its clinical presentation

BACKGROUND

Naturally acquired malaria immunity has many determinants and, in the absence of immunological markers of protection, studies assessing malaria incidence through clinical endpoints remain an approach to defining immunity acquisition. We investigated the role of age in disease incidence and the effects of chemoprophylaxis on clinical immunity development to Plasmodium falciparum during a randomised controlled trial.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 415 Tanzanian infants were randomly assigned to receive weekly malaria prophylaxis with Deltaprim (3.125 mg of pyrimethamine plus 25 mg of dapsone) or placebo between the ages of 2 and 12 mo. Children were followed up until 4 y of age. Uncomplicated febrile malaria, severe malaria, and anaemia morbidity were assessed through hospital-based passive surveillance. Compared with the group of control participants, there was a marked reduction in the incidence of clinical malaria, severe malaria, and anaemia in the group of children who had received chemoprophylaxis during the first year of life. After discontinuing the intervention, there was a significant increase in the incidence of clinical malaria for 2 y. The cumulative rates of clinical malaria, by age 4 y, were slightly higher in the group of children who had previously received chemoprophylaxis: 3.22 episodes versus 3.02 episodes in the group of control participants; rate difference 0.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.21 to 0.59). By age 4 y, the cumulative rates of severe malaria, however, were slightly lower in chemosuppressed children (0.47 versus 0.59) (rate difference -0.12 [95% CI: -0.27 to 0.03]). The number of episodes of anaemia was also slightly lower in chemosuppressed children by age 4 y: 0.93 episodes (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.97) versus 1.12 episodes in the group of control participants (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.28) (rate difference -0.19 [95% CI: -0.40 to 0.01]), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing exposure to P. falciparum antigens through chemoprophylaxis early in life can delay immunity acquisition. Infants appear to acquire immunity faster than older children, but have a higher risk of developing severe forms of malaria and anaemia. These findings provide insight on the interplay between immunity and exposure-reduction interventions.

Plasmodium yoelii: Influence of antimalarial treatment on acquisition of immunity in BALB/c and DBA/2 mice

The effect of antimalarial drugs on immune responses to the malaria infection is evaluated in vivo using two experimental self-cured rodent models. BALB/c and DBA/2 mice were infected by Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL and 17XL strains, respectively, and then treated with different doses of antimalarial drugs: chloroquine (228mg/kg or 114mg/kg of the body weight) or artesunate (78mg/kg or 39mg/kg). The effect of antimalarial drugs on host immune responses was evaluated by parasitemia, splenocyte IFN-gamma production level, and parasite-specific IgG level in the serum, however, no significant differences were observed between drug-treated and untreated groups. Moreover, most of the infected mice of all groups showed the ability to resist homologous reinfection (challenged on day 60 post-infection), only a few mice experienced transient, low parasitemia. The rechallenged mice were accompanied by high level of parasite-specific IgG. Therefore, this research implicated that, for BALB/c and DBA/2 mice, chloroquine or artesunate treatment of blood-stage P. yoelii infections does not compromise acquired immunity to malaria in either primary infection or upon rechallenge.

Detection sensitivity and quantitation of Plasmodium falciparum var gene transcripts by real-time RT-PCR in comparison with conventional RT-PCR

Antigenic variation in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1, caused by a switch in transcription of the encoding var gene, is an important feature of malaria. In this study, we quantified the relative abundance of var gene transcripts present in P. falciparum parasite clones using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and conventional RT-PCR combined with cloning and sequencing, with the aim of directly comparing the results obtained. When there was sufficient abundance of RNA for the real-time RT-PCR assay to be operating within the region of good reproducibility, RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR tended to identify the same dominant transcript, although some transcript-specific issues were identified. When there were differences in the estimated relative amounts of minor transcripts, the RT-PCR assay tended to produce higher estimates than real-time RT-PCR. These results provide valuable information comparing RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR analysis of samples with small quantities of RNA as might be expected in the analysis of field or clinical samples.

Parasite immune escape: new views into host-parasite interactions

For parasites of humans and animals that rely on vectors or on sexual contact for transmission, it is particularly important that infection does not to terminate before the occurrence of the crucial event that completes its lifecycle (e.g. another mosquito bite). For chronic infection to occur, it is essential that the parasite avoids clearance by the host immune system. Much progress has been made in elucidating the immunological interactions and the molecular mechanisms involved in the process of immune evasion. Mathematical models have also been invaluable in understanding these processes, particularly in the generation of new ideas about a complex form of immune evasion known as antigenic variation whereby a major target of the host immune response is varied during the course of a single infection to avoid recognition.