Opportunistic screening versus usual care for detection of atrial fibrillation in primary care: cluster randomised controlled trial

Management of atrial fibrillation in older adults

Most people with atrial fibrillation are older adults, in whom atrial fibrillation co-occurs with other chronic conditions, polypharmacy, and geriatric syndromes such as frailty. Yet most randomized controlled trials and expert guidelines use an age agnostic approach. Given the heterogeneity of aging, these data may not be universally applicable across the spectrum of older adults. This review synthesizes the available evidence and applies rigorous principles of aging science. After contextualizing the burden of comorbidities and geriatric syndromes in people with atrial fibrillation, it applies an aging focused approach to the pillars of atrial fibrillation management, describing screening for atrial fibrillation, lifestyle interventions, symptoms and complications, rate and rhythm control, coexisting heart failure, anticoagulation therapy, and left atrial appendage occlusion devices. Throughout, a framework is suggested that prioritizes patients' goals and applies existing evidence to all older adults, whether atrial fibrillation is their sole condition, one among many, or a bystander at the end of life.

Identifying a Heterogeneous Effect of Atrial Fibrillation Screening in Older Adults: A Secondary Analysis of the VITAL-AF Trial

Background

One-time atrial fibrillation (AF) screening trials have produced mixed results; however, it is unclear if there is a subset for whom screening is effective. Identifying such a subgroup would support targeted screening.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of VITAL-AF, a randomized trial of one-time, single-lead ECG screening during primary care visits. We tested two approaches to identify a subgroup where screening is effective. First, we developed an effect-based model using a T-learner. Specifically, we separately predicted the likelihood of AF diagnosis under screening and usual care conditions; the difference in probabilities was the predicted screening effect. Second, we used a validated AF risk model to test for a heterogeneous screening effect. We used interaction testing to determine if observed AF diagnosis rates in the screening and usual care groups differed when stratified by decile of the predicted screening effect and predicted AF risk.

Results

Baseline characteristics were similar between the screening (n=15187) and usual care (n=15078) groups (mean age 74 years, 59% female). In the effect-based analysis, in the highest decile of predicted screening effectiveness (n=3026), AF diagnosis rates were higher in the screening group (6.50 vs. 3.06 per 100 person-years, rate difference 3.45, 95%CI 1.62 to 5.28). In this group, the mean age was 84 years and 68% were female. The risk-based analysis did not identify a subgroup where screening was more effective. Predicted screening effectiveness and predicted baseline AF risk were poorly correlated (Spearman coefficient 0.13).

Conclusions

In a secondary analysis of the VITAL-AF trial, we identified a small subgroup where one-time screening was associated with increased AF diagnoses using an effect-based approach. In this study, predicted AF risk was a poor proxy for predicted screening effectiveness. These data caution against the assumption that high AF risk is necessarily correlated with high screening effectiveness.

Integrating Clinical, Genetic, and Electrocardiogram-Based Artificial Intelligence to Estimate Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

Background

AF risk estimation is feasible using clinical factors, inherited predisposition, and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis.

Objective

To test whether integrating these distinct risk signals improves AF risk estimation.

Methods

In the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, we estimated AF risk using three models derived from external populations: the well-validated Cohorts for Aging in Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE-AF) clinical score, a 1,113,667-variant AF polygenic risk score (PRS), and a published AI-enabled ECG-based AF risk model (ECG-AI). We estimated discrimination of 5-year incident AF using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and average precision (AP).

Results

Among 49,293 individuals (mean age 65±8 years, 52% women), 825 (2.4%) developed AF within 5 years. Using single models, discrimination of 5-year incident AF was higher using ECG-AI (AUROC 0.705 [95%CI 0.686-0.724]; AP 0.085 [0.071-0.11]) and CHARGE-AF (AUROC 0.785 [0.769-0.801]; AP 0.053 [0.048-0.061]) versus the PRS (AUROC 0.618, [0.598-0.639]; AP 0.038 [0.028-0.045]). The inclusion of all components ("Predict-AF3") was the best performing model (AUROC 0.817 [0.802-0.832]; AP 0.11 [0.091-0.15], p<0.01 vs CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI), followed by the two component model of CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI (AUROC 0.802 [0.786-0.818]; AP 0.098 [0.081-0.13]). Using Predict-AF3, individuals at high AF risk (i.e., 5-year predicted AF risk >2.5%) had a 5-year cumulative incidence of AF of 5.83% (5.33-6.32). At the same threshold, the 5-year cumulative incidence of AF was progressively higher according to the number of models predicting high risk (zero: 0.67% [0.51-0.84], one: 1.48% [1.28-1.69], two: 4.48% [3.99-4.98]; three: 11.06% [9.48-12.61]), and Predict-AF3 achieved favorable net reclassification improvement compared to both CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI (0.039 [0.015-0.066]) and CHARGE-AF+PRS (0.033 [0.0082-0.059]).

Conclusions

Integration of clinical, genetic, and AI-derived risk signals improves discrimination of 5-year AF risk over individual components. Models such as Predict-AF3 have substantial potential to improve prioritization of individuals for AF screening and preventive interventions.

Innovative approaches to atrial fibrillation prediction: should polygenic scores and machine learning be implemented in clinical practice?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction and screening are of important clinical interest because of the potential to prevent serious adverse events. Devices capable of detecting short episodes of arrhythmia are now widely available. Although it has recently been suggested that some high-risk patients with AF detected on implantable devices may benefit from anticoagulation, long-term management remains challenging in lower-risk patients and in those with AF detected on monitors or wearable devices as the development of clinically meaningful arrhythmia burden in this group remains unknown. Identification and prediction of clinically relevant AF is therefore of unprecedented importance to the cardiologic community. Family history and underlying genetic markers are important risk factors for AF. Recent studies suggest a good predictive ability of polygenic risk scores, with a possible additive value to clinical AF prediction scores. Artificial intelligence, enabled by the exponentially increasing computing power and digital data sets, has gained traction in the past decade and is of increasing interest in AF prediction using a single or multiple lead sinus rhythm electrocardiogram. Integrating these novel approaches could help predict AF substrate severity, thereby potentially improving the effectiveness of AF screening and personalizing the management of patients presenting with conditions such as embolic stroke of undetermined source or subclinical AF. This review presents current evidence surrounding deep learning and polygenic risk scores in the prediction of incident AF and provides a futuristic outlook on possible ways of implementing these modalities into clinical practice, while considering current limitations and required areas of improvement.

Screening and detection of atrial fibrillation in primary care: current practice and future perspectives

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with an increased risk of stroke, which can be effectively reduced by prophylaxis initiation and integrated care to reduce cardiovascular risk and AF-related complications. Screening for AF has the potential to improve long-term clinical outcomes through timely AF detection in asymptomatic patients. With the central role of primary care in most European healthcare systems in terms of disease detection, treatment, as well as record keeping, primary care is ideally situated as a setting for AF screening efforts. In this review, we provide an overview of evidence relating to AF screening in primary care. We discuss current practices of AF detection and screening, evidence from AF screening trials conducted in primary care settings, stakeholder views on barriers and facilitators for AF screening in primary care, and important aspects that will likely shape routine primary care AF detection as well as AF screening efforts. Finally, we present a potential outline for a primary care-centred AF screening trial coupled to integrated AF care that could further improve the benefit of AF screening.

Chinese guidelines for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of the guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice timely and fully, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2‑VASc‑60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of the Asian AF population. The guidelines also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial

INTRODUCTION

There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN72104369.

Assessment and Management of Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults with Frailty

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major driver of morbidity and mortality among older adults with frailty. Moreover, frailty is highly prevalent in older adults with AF. Understanding and addressing the needs of frail older adults with AF is imperative to guide clinicians caring for older adults. In this review, we summarize current evidence to support the assessment and management of older adults with AF and frailty, incorporating numerous recent landmark trials and studies in the context of the 2023 US AF guideline.

Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice in a timely and comprehensive manner, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of the Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of the Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering have jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines have comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2-VASc-60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of AF in the Asian population. The guidelines have also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Correlates and consequences of atrial fibrillation in a prospective study of 25 000 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank

Aims

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is positively correlated with prior cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and CVD risk factors but is lower in Chinese than Europeans despite their higher burden of CVD. We examined the prevalence and prognosis of AF and other electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in the China Kadoorie Biobank.

Methods and results

A random sample of 25 239 adults (mean age 59.5 years, 62% women) had a 12-lead ECG recorded and interpreted using a Mortara VERITAS™ algorithm in 2013-14. Participants were followed up for 5 years for incident stroke, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure (HF), and all CVD, overall and by CHA2DS2-VASc scores, age, sex, and area. Overall, 1.2% had AF, 13.6% had left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and 28.1% had ischaemia (two-thirds of AF cases also had ischaemia or LVH). The prevalence of AF increased with age, prior CVD, and levels of CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (0.5%, 1.3%, 2.1%, 2.9%, and 4.4% for scores <2, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5, respectively). Atrial fibrillation was associated with two-fold higher hazard ratios (HR) for CVD (2.15; 95% CI, 1.71-2.69) and stroke (1.88; 1.44-2.47) and a four-fold higher HR for HF (3.79; 2.21-6.49). The 5-year cumulative incidence of CVD was comparable for AF, prior CVD, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores ≥ 2 (36.7% vs. 36.2% vs. 37.7%, respectively) but was two-fold greater than for ischaemia (19.4%), LVH (18.0%), or normal ECG (14.1%), respectively.

Conclusion

The findings highlight the importance of screening for AF together with estimation of CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores for prevention of CVD in Chinese adults.

The feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using hand-held electrocardiogram devices

AIMS

There are few data on the feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) using hand-held electrocardiogram (ECG) devices outside a specialist setting or in people over the age of 75. We investigated the feasibility of screening when conducted without face-to-face contact ('remote') or via in-person appointments in primary care and explored impact of age on screening outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

People aged ≥65 years from 13 general practices in England participated in screening during 2019-20. This involved attending a practice nurse appointment (10 practices) or receiving an ECG device by post (three practices). Participants were asked to use a hand-held ECG for 1-4 weeks. Screening outcomes included uptake, quality of ECGs, AF detection rates, and uptake of anticoagulation if AF was detected. Screening was carried out by 2141 (87.5%) of people invited to practice nurse-led screening and by 288 (90.0%) invited to remote screening. At least 56 interpretable ECGs were provided by 98.0% of participants who participated for 3 weeks, with no significant differences by setting or age, except people aged 85 or over (91.1%). Overall, 2.6% (64/2429) screened participants had AF, with detection rising with age (9.2% in people aged 85 or over). A total of 53/64 (82.8%) people with AF commenced anticoagulation. Uptake of anticoagulation did not vary by age.

CONCLUSION

Population screening for paroxysmal AF is feasible in general practice and without face-to-face contact for all ages over 64 years, including people aged 85 and over.

Effect of clinic-based single-lead electrocardiogram rhythm assessment on oral anticoagulation prescriptions in patients with previously diagnosed atrial fibrillation

Background

Despite benefits of oral anticoagulation (OAC), many individuals with diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) do not receive OAC.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to assess whether cardiac rhythm assessment for AF impacted use of OAC in patients with previously diagnosed AF.

Methods

VITAL-AF was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in 16 primary care practices assessing the efficacy of AF rhythm assessment with single-lead electrocardiogram in routine care. Patients 65 years and older were offered rhythm assessment at visits. In this secondary analysis, we evaluated rhythm assessment uptake and compared initiation and discontinuation of OAC in patients with previously diagnosed AF from intervention and control arms over 1 year.

Results

The study included 4593 patients with previously diagnosed AF (2250 intervention; 2343 control). In the intervention arm, 2022 (89.9%) completed rhythm assessment (median 2 visits with rhythm assessment) and 40.1% had ≥1 "Possible AF" result. Initiation of OAC was similar in the intervention (17.7%) and control (19.1%) arms but was influenced by the rhythm assessment result: higher with a "Possible AF" (26.1%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-2.51), and lower with a "Normal" result (9.9%; aOR 0.45; 95% CI 0.29-0.71) compared to control. OAC discontinuation was similar in the intervention (6.3%) and control (7.2%) arms, with lower discontinuation with a "Possible AF" result (3.8%; aOR 0.51; 95% CI 0.32-0.81).

Conclusions

Including patients with previously diagnosed AF in a point-of-care rhythm assessment strategy did not increase overall OAC use compared to the control arm. However, the rhythm assessment result influenced both initiation and discontinuation of OAC.

Prediction of short-term atrial fibrillation risk using primary care electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening by age achieves a low yield and misses younger individuals. We aimed to develop an algorithm in nationwide routinely collected primary care data to predict the risk of incident AF within 6 months (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)).

METHODS

We used primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between 2 January 1998 and 30 November 2018, randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We trained a random forest classifier using age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities. Prediction performance was evaluated in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category) and C2HEST (Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) scores. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk of death were fit for incident longer-term AF between higher and lower FIND-AF-predicted risk.

RESULTS

Of 2 081 139 individuals in the cohort, 7386 developed AF within 6 months. FIND-AF could be applied to all records. In the testing dataset (n=416 228), discrimination performance was strongest for FIND-AF (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.834) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.784, 0.773 to 0.794) and C2HEST (0.757, 0.744 to 0.770), and robust by sex and ethnic group. The higher predicted risk cohort, compared with lower predicted risk, had a 20-fold higher 6-month incidence rate for AF and higher long-term hazard for AF (HR 8.75, 95% CI 8.44 to 9.06).

CONCLUSIONS

FIND-AF, a machine learning algorithm applicable at scale in routinely collected primary care data, identifies people at higher risk of short-term AF.

Protocol for a Systematic Review and Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials of Screening for Atrial Fibrillation to Prevent Stroke

INTRODUCTION

 Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cause of stroke. Timely diagnosis of AF and treatment with oral anticoagulation (OAC) can prevent up to two-thirds of AF-related strokes. Ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring can identify undiagnosed AF in at-risk individuals, but the impact of population-based ECG screening on stroke is uncertain, as ongoing and published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have generally been underpowered for stroke.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

 The AF-SCREEN Collaboration, with support from AFFECT-EU, have begun a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of RCTs evaluating ECG screening for AF. The primary outcome is stroke. Secondary outcomes include AF detection, OAC prescription, hospitalization, mortality, and bleeding.After developing a common data dictionary, anonymized data will be collated from individual trials into a central database. We will assess risk of bias using the Cochrane Collaboration tool, and overall quality of evidence with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.We will pool data using random effects models. Prespecified subgroup and multilevel meta-regression analyses will explore heterogeneity. We will perform prespecified trial sequential meta-analyses of published trials to determine when the optimal information size has been reached, and account for unpublished trials using the SAMURAI approach.

IMPACT AND DISSEMINATION

 Individual participant data meta-analysis will generate adequate power to assess the risks and benefits of AF screening. Meta-regression will permit exploration of the specific patient, screening methodology, and health system factors that influence outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

 PROSPERO CRD42022310308.

Estimated Burden of Stroke in China in 2020

IMPORTANCE

Stroke is the leading cause of death in China. However, recent data about the up-to-date stroke burden in China are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the urban-rural disparity of stroke burden in the Chinese adult population, including prevalence, incidence, and mortality rate, and disparities between urban and rural populations.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study was based on a nationally representative survey that included 676 394 participants aged 40 years and older. It was conducted from July 2020 to December 2020 in 31 provinces in mainland China.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcome was self-reported stroke verified by trained neurologists during a face-to-face interviews using a standardized protocol. Stroke incidence were assessed by defining first-ever strokes that occurred during 1 year preceding the survey. Strokes causing death that occurred during the 1 year preceding the survey were considered as death cases.

RESULTS

The study included 676 394 Chinese adults (395 122 [58.4%] females; mean [SD] age, 59.7 [11.0] years). In 2020, the weighted prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates of stroke in China were 2.6% (95% CI, 2.6%-2.6%), 505.2 (95% CI, 488.5-522.0) per 100 000 person-years, and 343.4 (95% CI, 329.6-357.2) per 100 000 person-years, respectively. It was estimated that among the Chinese population aged 40 years and older in 2020, there were 3.4 (95% CI, 3.3-3.6) million incident cases of stroke, 17.8 (95% CI, 17.5-18.0) million prevalent cases of stroke, and 2.3 (95% CI, 2.2-2.4) million deaths from stroke. Ischemic stroke constituted 15.5 (95% CI, 15.2-15.6) million (86.8%) of all incident strokes in 2020, while intracerebral hemorrhage constituted 2.1 (95% CI, 2.1-2.1) million (11.9%) and subarachnoid hemorrhage constituted 0.2 (95% CI, 0.2-0.2) million (1.3%). The prevalence of stroke was higher in urban than in rural areas (2.7% [95% CI, 2.6%-2.7%] vs 2.5% [95% CI, 2.5%-2.6%]; P = .02), but the incidence rate (485.5 [95% CI, 462.8-508.3] vs 520.8 [95% CI, 496.3-545.2] per 100 000 person-years; P < .001) and mortality rate (309.9 [95% CI, 291.7-328.1] vs 369.7 [95% CI, 349.1-390.3] per 100 000 person-years; P < .001) were lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In 2020, the leading risk factor for stroke was hypertension (OR, 3.20 [95% CI, 3.09-3.32]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In a large, nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years or older, the estimated prevalence, incidence, and mortality rate of stroke in China in 2020 were 2.6%, 505.2 per 100 000 person-years, and 343.4 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, indicating the need for an improved stroke prevention strategy in the general Chinese population.

Prevalence and Prognostic Significance of Bradyarrhythmias in Patients Screened for Atrial Fibrillation vs Usual Care: Post Hoc Analysis of the LOOP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

There is increasing interest in heart rhythm monitoring and technologies to detect subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF), which may lead to incidental diagnosis of bradyarrhythmias.

Objective

To assess bradyarrhythmia prevalence and prognostic significance in persons screened for AF using implantable loop recorder (ILR) compared with unscreened persons.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a post hoc analysis of the Implantable Loop Recorder Detection of Atrial Fibrillation to Prevent Stroke (LOOP) randomized clinical trial, which took place in 4 sites in Denmark. Participants were 70 years or older without known AF but diagnosed with at least 1 of the following: hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, or prior stroke. Participants were recruited by letter invitation between January 31, 2014, and May 17, 2016. The median (IQR) follow-up period was 65 (59-70) months. Analysis took place between February and June 2022.

Interventions

ILR screening for AF with treatment of any bradyarrhythmia left to the discretion of the treating physician (ILR group) vs usual care (control group).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Adjudicated bradyarrhythmia episodes, pacemaker implantation, syncope, and sudden cardiovascular death.

Results

A total of 6004 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 75 [4.1] years; 2837 [47.3%] female; 5444 [90.7%] with hypertension; 1224 [20.4%] with prior syncope), 4503 to control and 1501 to ILR. Bradyarrhythmia was diagnosed in 172 participants (3.8%) in the control group vs 312 participants (20.8%) in the ILR group (hazard ratio [HR], 6.21 [95% CI, 5.15-7.48]; P < .001), and these were asymptomatic in 41 participants (23.8%) vs 249 participants (79.8%), respectively. The most common bradyarrhythmia was sinus node dysfunction followed by high-grade atrioventricular block. Risk factors for bradyarrhythmia included higher age, male sex, and prior syncope. A pacemaker was implanted in 132 participants (2.9%) vs 67 (4.5%) (HR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.14-2.06]; P < .001), syncope occurred in 120 (2.7%) vs 33 (2.2%) (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.56-1.22]; P = .34), and sudden cardiovascular death occurred in 49 (1.1%) vs 18 (1.2%) (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.64-1.90]; P = .71) in the control and ILR groups, respectively. Bradyarrhythmias were associated with subsequent syncope, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death, with no interaction between bradyarrhythmia and randomization group.

Conclusions and Relevance

More than 1 in 5 persons older than 70 years with cardiovascular risk factors can be diagnosed with bradyarrhythmias when long-term continous monitoring for AF is applied. In this study, ILR screening led to a 6-fold increase in bradyarrhythmia diagnoses and a significant increase in pacemaker implantations compared with usual care but no change in the risk of syncope or sudden death.

How is atrial fibrillation detected in everyday healthcare? Results of a Dutch cohort study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia with serious potential consequences when left untreated. For timely treatment, early detection is imperative. We explored how new AF is detected in patients aged ≥ 65 years in Dutch healthcare.

METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 9526 patients from 49 Dutch general practices in the usual-care arm of the Detecting and Diagnosing Atrial Fibrillation study. We automatically extracted data from the electronic medical records and reviewed individual records of patients who developed AF. Patient selection started in 2015, and data collection ended in 2019.

RESULTS

We included 258 patients with newly diagnosed AF. In 55.0% of the patients, the irregular heartbeat was first observed in general practice and in 16.3% in the cardiology department. Cardiologists diagnosed most cases (47.3%), followed by general practitioners (GPs; 33.7%). AF detection was triggered by symptoms in 64.7% of the patients and by previous stroke in 3.5%. Overall, patients aged 65-74 years more often presented with symptoms than those aged ≥ 75 years (73.5% vs 60.6%; p = 0.042). In 31.5% of the patients, AF was diagnosed incidentally ('silent AF'). Silent-AF patients were on average 2 years older than symptomatic-AF patients. GPs less often diagnosed silent AF than symptomatic AF (21.0% vs 39.0%; p = 0.008), whereas physicians other than GPs or cardiologists more often diagnosed symptomatic AF than silent AF (34.6% vs 11.9%; p < 0.001). Most diagnoses were based on a 12-lead electrocardiogram (93.8%).

CONCLUSION

Diagnosing AF is a multidisciplinary process. The irregular heartbeat was most often detected by the GP, but cardiologists diagnosed most cases. One-third of all newly diagnosed AF was silent.

System for digital character recognition, extraction and structuring of medical data with the formation of a cloud-based electronic health records

The use of available systems for obtaining structured data from primary medical information is based on the use of various technologies, including digital transformation of primary data for the formation of electronic health records. The purpose of the work was to outline the structure and benefits of using the RuPatient electronic health record (EHR), created to automate the work with medical data, digital character recognition and building an algorithm for communicating with patients. The created RuPatient EHR automates the processing of medical documents using image digitization and optical character recognition and the formation of a database. The developed program code that combines modules into a single web service is registered as intellectual property. The web service is a client-server application with the ability to access the interface through a browser from a smartphone, tablet, laptop, and personal computer. The service contains an interface part (Frontend), a functional part, with the possibility of expanding with separate modules (Backend), and databases for storing information about patients. The developed service provides standardization and digitalization of documents of patient-doctor visits and is a tool for convenient remote communication between a patient and a doctor via the built-in chat. The RuPatient EHR serves as a convenient tool for standardizing medical information in digital form and is designed to help the doctor and the patient in organizing treatment and preventive interaction.

Personalized approach using wearable technology for early detection of atrial fibrillation in high-risk primary care patients (PATCH-AF): Study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia with a lifetime risk of one in 4. Unfortunately, AF often remains undetected, particularly when it is paroxysmal, for which single time-point evaluation is less effective. Recently, unobtrusive cardiac arrhythmia monitoring devices have become available, providing the opportunity to conduct prolonged electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring in a patient-friendly manner. We hypothesize that applying these devices in at risk patients may improve AF detection, particularly when used during repeated episodes. We therefore aim to evaluate the diagnostic yield of yearly screening for atrial fibrillation when using a wearable device for continuous ECG monitoring for 7 days in primary care patients ≥ 65 years deemed at high-risk of AF (CHA₂DS₂VASc score ≥3 for men or ≥4 for women) compared with usual care over a study period of 3 years.

METHODS

Primary care based, cluster-randomized controlled trial with 10 general practices randomized to the intervention group and 10 general practices randomized to control group. In each group, we aim to enroll 930 patients, ≥65 years and a CHA₂DS₂VASc score ≥3 for men or ≥ 4 for women. The intervention consists of continuous ECG monitoring for 7 days at start of the study (t = 0), after one (t = 1) and 2 years (t = 2). The control practices will follow usual diagnostic care procedures.

RESULTS

Results are expected in 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

This study differs from previous randomized controlled trials, as it involves longitudinal screening of a risk-stratified population. In case of a beneficial diagnostic yield, the PATCH-AF study will add to the evidence for AF screening.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The PATCH-AF study is registered at The Netherlands Trial Register (NTR number NL9656).

Artificial intelligence-guided screening for atrial fibrillation using electrocardiogram during sinus rhythm: a prospective non-randomised interventional trial

BACKGROUND

Previous atrial fibrillation screening trials have highlighted the need for more targeted approaches. We did a pragmatic study to evaluate the effectiveness of an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm-guided targeted screening approach for identifying previously unrecognised atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

For this non-randomised interventional trial, we prospectively recruited patients with stroke risk factors but with no known atrial fibrillation who had an electrocardiogram (ECG) done in routine practice. Participants wore a continuous ambulatory heart rhythm monitor for up to 30 days, with the data transmitted in near real time through a cellular connection. The AI algorithm was applied to the ECGs to divide patients into high-risk or low-risk groups. The primary outcome was newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. In a secondary analysis, trial participants were propensity-score matched (1:1) to individuals from the eligible but unenrolled population who served as real-world controls. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04208971.

FINDINGS

1003 patients with a mean age of 74 years (SD 8·8) from 40 US states completed the study. Over a mean 22·3 days of continuous monitoring, atrial fibrillation was detected in six (1·6%) of 370 patients with low risk and 48 (7·6%) of 633 with high risk (odds ratio 4·98, 95% CI 2·11-11·75, p=0·0002). Compared with usual care, AI-guided screening was associated with increased detection of atrial fibrillation (high-risk group: 3·6% [95% CI 2·3-5·4] with usual care vs 10·6% [8·3-13·2] with AI-guided screening, p<0·0001; low-risk group: 0·9% vs 2·4%, p=0·12) over a median follow-up of 9·9 months (IQR 7·1-11·0).

INTERPRETATION

An AI-guided targeted screening approach that leverages existing clinical data increased the yield for atrial fibrillation detection and could improve the effectiveness of atrial fibrillation screening.

FUNDING

Mayo Clinic Robert D and Patricia E Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery.

Reimbursement practices for use of digital devices in atrial fibrillation and other arrhythmias: a European Heart Rhythm Association survey

AIMS

Since digital devices are increasingly used in cardiology for assessing cardiac rhythm and detecting arrhythmias, especially atrial fibrillation (AF), our aim was to evaluate the expectations and opinions of healthcare professionals in Europe on reimbursement policies for the use of digital devices (including wearables) in AF and other arrhythmias.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An anonymous survey was proposed through announcements on the European Heart Rhythm Association website, social media channels, and mail newsletter. Two hundred and seventeen healthcare professionals participated in the survey: 32.7%, reported regular use of digital devices, 45.2% reported that they sometimes use these tools, 18.6% that they do not use but would like to. Only a minority (3.5%) reported a lack of trust in digital devices. The survey highlighted a general propensity to provide medical consultation for suspected AF or other arrhythmias detected by a consumer-initiated use of digital devices, even if time constraints and reimbursement availability emerged as important elements. More than 85% of respondents agreed that reimbursement should be applied for clinical use of digital devices, also in different settings such as post-stroke, post-cardioversion, post-ablation, and in patients with palpitations or syncope. Finally, 73.6% of respondents confirmed a lack of reimbursement fees in their country for physicians' consultations (tracings interpretation) related to digital devices.

CONCLUSIONS

Digital devices, including wearables, are increasingly and widely used for assessing cardiac rhythm and detecting AF, but a definition of reimbursement policies for physicians' consultations is needed.

Sensitivity and specificity of automated blood pressure devices to detect atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent and preventable cause of stroke and mortality.

Aim

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the sensitivity and specificity of office and out-of-office automated blood pressure (BP) devices to detect AF.

Methods

Diagnostic studies, extracted from databases such as Ovid Medline and Embase, on AF detection by BP device(s), electrocardiography, and reported sensitivity and specificity, were included. Screening of abstracts and full texts, data extraction, and quality assessment were conducted independently by two investigators using Covidence software. The sensitivity and specificity of the BP devices were pooled using a random-effects model.

Results

Sixteen studies including 10,158 participants were included. Only a few studies were conducted in primary care (n = 3) or with a low risk of bias (n = 5). Office BP devices, which utilised different algorithms to detect AF, had a sensitivity and specificity of 96.2 and 94%, respectively. Specificity was reduced when only one positive result was considered among consecutive BP measurements. Only a few studies (n = 3) investigated out-of-office BP. Only one study (n = 100) suggested the use of ≥79 and ≥26% of positive readings on 24-h ambulatory BP measurements to detect AF and paroxysmal AF, respectively.

Conclusions

Office BP devices can be used clinically to screen for AF in high-risk populations. Clinical trials are needed to determine the effect of AF screening using office BP devices in reducing stroke risk and mortality. Further studies are also required to guide out-of-office use of BP devices for detecting paroxysmal AF or AF.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022319541, PROSPERO CRD42022319541.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Using Wearable Devices

Question

Is population-based atrial fibrillation (AF) screening using wearable devices cost-effective?

Findings

In this economic evaluation of 30 million simulated individuals with an age, sex, and comorbidity profile matching the US population aged 65 years or older, AF screening using wearable devices was cost-effective, with the overall preferred strategy identified as wearable photoplethysmography, followed conditionally by wearable electrocardiography with patch monitor confirmation (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $57 894 per quality-adjusted life-year). The cost-effectiveness of screening was consistent across multiple scenarios, including strata of sex, screening at earlier ages, and with variation in the association of anticoagulation with risk of stroke associated with screening-detected AF.

Meaning

This study suggests that contemporary AF screening using wearable devices may be cost-effective.

Importance

Undiagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important cause of stroke. Screening for AF using wrist-worn wearable devices may prevent strokes, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of contemporary AF screening strategies, particularly wrist-worn wearable devices.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This economic evaluation used a microsimulation decision-analytic model and was conducted from September 8, 2020, to May 23, 2022, comprising 30 million simulated individuals with an age, sex, and comorbidity profile matching the US population aged 65 years or older.

Interventions

Eight AF screening strategies, with 6 using wrist-worn wearable devices (watch or band photoplethysmography, with or without watch or band electrocardiography) and 2 using traditional modalities (ie, pulse palpation and 12-lead electrocardiogram) vs no screening.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Secondary measures included rates of stroke and major bleeding.

Results

In the base case analysis of this model, the mean (SD) age was 72.5 (7.5) years, and 50% of the individuals were women. All 6 screening strategies using wrist-worn wearable devices were estimated to be more effective than no screening (range of QALYs gained vs no screening, 226-957 per 100 000 individuals) and were associated with greater relative benefit than screening using traditional modalities (range of QALYs gained vs no screening, −116 to 93 per 100 000 individuals). Compared with no screening, screening using wrist-worn wearable devices was associated with a reduction in stroke incidence by 20 to 23 per 100 000 person-years but an increase in major bleeding by 20 to 44 per 100 000 person-years. The overall preferred strategy was wearable photoplethysmography, followed conditionally by wearable electrocardiography with patch monitor confirmation, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $57 894 per QALY, meeting the acceptability threshold of $100 000 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of screening was consistent across multiple scenarios, including strata of sex, screening at earlier ages (eg, ≥50 years), and with variation in the association of anticoagulation with risk of stroke in the setting of screening-detected AF.

Conclusions and Relevance

This economic evaluation of AF screening using a microsimulation decision-analytic model suggests that screening using wearable devices is cost-effective compared with either no screening or AF screening using traditional methods.

Natural Language Processing to Improve Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation Using Electronic Health Records

Background Models predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) risk, such as Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE-AF), have not performed as well in electronic health records. Natural language processing (NLP) may improve models by using narrative electronic health record text. Methods and Results From a primary care network, we included patients aged ≥65 years with visits between 2003 and 2013 in development (n=32 960) and internal validation cohorts (n=13 992). An external validation cohort from a separate network from 2015 to 2020 included 39 051 patients. Model features were defined using electronic health record codified data and narrative data with NLP. We developed 2 models to predict 5-year AF incidence using (1) codified+NLP data and (2) codified data only and evaluated model performance. The analysis included 2839 incident AF cases in the development cohort and 1057 and 2226 cases in internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. The C-statistic was greater (P<0.001) in codified+NLP model (0.744 [95% CI, 0.735-0.753]) compared with codified-only (0.730 [95% CI, 0.720-0.739]) in the development cohort. In internal validation, the C-statistic of codified+NLP was modestly higher (0.735 [95% CI, 0.720-0.749]) compared with codified-only (0.729 [95% CI, 0.715-0.744]; P=0.06) and CHARGE-AF (0.717 [95% CI, 0.703-0.731]; P=0.002). Codified+NLP and codified-only were well calibrated, whereas CHARGE-AF underestimated AF risk. In external validation, the C-statistic of codified+NLP (0.750 [95% CI, 0.740-0.760]) remained higher (P<0.001) than codified-only (0.738 [95% CI, 0.727-0.748]) and CHARGE-AF (0.735 [95% CI, 0.725-0.746]). Conclusions Estimation of 5-year risk of AF can be modestly improved using NLP to incorporate narrative electronic health record data.

Early diagnosis and better rhythm management to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 8th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference

Despite marked progress in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), detecting AF remains difficult and AF-related complications cause unacceptable morbidity and mortality even on optimal current therapy. This document summarizes the key outcomes of the 8th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). Eighty-three international experts met in Hamburg for 2 days in October 2021. Results of the interdisciplinary, hybrid discussions in breakout groups and the plenary based on recently published and unpublished observations are summarized in this consensus paper to support improved care for patients with AF by guiding prevention, individualized management, and research strategies. The main outcomes are (i) new evidence supports a simple, scalable, and pragmatic population-based AF screening pathway; (ii) rhythm management is evolving from therapy aimed at improving symptoms to an integrated domain in the prevention of AF-related outcomes, especially in patients with recently diagnosed AF; (iii) improved characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may help to identify patients in need for therapy; (iv) standardized assessment of cognitive function in patients with AF could lead to improvement in patient outcomes; and (v) artificial intelligence (AI) can support all of the above aims, but requires advanced interdisciplinary knowledge and collaboration as well as a better medico-legal framework. Implementation of new evidence-based approaches to AF screening and rhythm management can improve outcomes in patients with AF. Additional benefits are possible with further efforts to identify and target atrial cardiomyopathy and cognitive impairment, which can be facilitated by AI.

ReducinG stroke by screening for UndiAgnosed atRial fibrillation in elderly inDividuals (GUARD-AF): Rationale and design of the GUARD-AF randomized trial of screening for atrial fibrillation with a 14-day patch-based continuous ECG monitor

BACKGROUND

Screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is attractive because AF independently raises the risk of ischemic stroke, this risk is largely reversible by long-term oral anticoagulant therapy (OAC), and many patients with AF remain undiagnosed and untreated. Recent trials of one-time brief screening for AF have not produced a significant increase in the proportion of patients diagnosed with AF. Trials of longer-term screening have demonstrated an increase in AF diagnoses, primarily paroxysmal AF. To date, however, no trials have demonstrated that screening for AF results in lower rates of stroke. Clinical practice guidelines conflict in their level of support for screening for AF.

METHODS

The GUARD-AF individually randomized trial is designed to test whether screening for AF in individuals age 70 years or greater using a 2-week single-lead electrocardiographic patch monitor can identify patients with undiagnosed AF and lead to treatment with OAC, resulting in a reduced rate of stroke in the screened population. The trial's efficacy end point is hospitalization for stroke (either ischemic or hemorrhagic) and the trial's safety end point is hospitalization for a bleeding event. End points will be ascertained via Medicare claims or electronic health records at 2.5 years after study start. Enrollment is based in primary care practices and the OAC decision for screen-detected cases is left to the patient and their physician. The initial planned target sample size was 52,000, with 26,000 allocated to either screening or to usual care.

RESULTS

Trial enrollment was severely hampered by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and stopped at a total enrollment of 11,931 participants. Of 5,965 randomized to the screening arm, 5,713 patients (96%) returned monitors with analyzable results. Incidence of screen-detected and clinically detected AF and associated stroke and bleeding outcomes will be ascertained.

CONCLUSIONS

GUARD-AF is the largest AF screening randomized trial using a longer-term patch-based continuous electrocardiographic monitor. The results will contribute important information on the yield of patch-based AF screening, the "burden" of AF detected (percent time in AF, longest episode), and physicians' OAC decisions as a function of AF burden. GUARD-AF's stroke and bleed results will contribute to pooled trial analyses of AF screening, thereby informing future studies and guidelines.

Detection of atrial fibrillation in primary care with radial pulse palpation, electronic blood pressure measurement and handheld single-lead electrocardiography: a diagnostic accuracy study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of three tests-radial pulse palpation, an electronic blood pressure monitor and a handheld single-lead ECG device-for opportunistic screening for unknown atrial fibrillation (AF).

DESIGN

We performed a diagnostic accuracy study in the intention-to-screen arm of a cluster randomised controlled trial aimed at opportunistic screening for AF in general practice. We performed radial pulse palpation, followed by electronic blood pressure measurement (WatchBP Home A) and handheld ECG (MyDiagnostick) in random order. If one or more index tests were positive, we performed a 12-lead ECG at shortest notice. Similarly, to limit verification bias, a random sample of patients with three negative index tests received this reference test. Additionally, we analysed the dataset using multiple imputation. We present pooled diagnostic parameters.

SETTING

47 general practices participated between September 2015 and August 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

In the electronic medical record system of the participating general practices (n=47), we randomly marked 200 patients of ≥65 years without AF. When they visited the practice for any reason, we invited them to participate. Exclusion criteria were terminal illness, inability to give informed consent or visit the practice or having a pacemaker or an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator.

OUTCOMES

Diagnostic accuracy of individual tests and test combinations to detect unknown AF.

RESULTS

We included 4339 patients; 0.8% showed new AF. Sensitivity and specificity were 62.8% (range 43.1%-69.7%) and 91.8% (91.7%-91.8%) for radial pulse palpation, 70.0% (49.0%-80.6%) and 96.5% (96.3%-96.7%) for electronic blood pressure measurement and 90.1% (60.8%-100%) and 97.9% (97.8%-97.9%) for handheld ECG, respectively. Positive predictive values were 5.8% (5.3%-6.1%), 13.8% (12.2%-14.8%) and 25.2% (24.2%-25.8%), respectively. All negative predictive values were ≥99.7%.

CONCLUSION

In detecting AF, electronic blood pressure measurement (WatchBP Home A), but especially handheld ECG (MyDiagnostick) showed better diagnostic accuracy than radial pulse palpation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Netherlands Trial Register No. NL4776 (old NTR4914).

Feasible approaches and implementation challenges to atrial fibrillation screening: a qualitative study of stakeholder views in 11 European countries

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may increase early detection and reduce complications of AF. European, Australian and World Heart Federation guidelines recommend opportunistic screening, despite a current lack of clear evidence supporting a net benefit for systematic screening. Where screening is implemented, the most appropriate approaches are unknown. We explored the views of European stakeholders about opportunities and challenges of implementing four AF screening scenarios.

DESIGN

Telephone-based semi-structured interviews with results reported using Consolidated criteria for Reporting Qualitative research guidelines. Data were thematically analysed using the framework approach.

SETTING

AF screening stakeholders in 11 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Healthcare professionals and regulators (n=24) potentially involved in AF screening implementation.

INTERVENTION

Four AF screening scenarios: single time point opportunistic, opportunistic prolonged, systematic single time point/prolonged and patient-led screening.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Stakeholder views about the challenges and feasibility of implementing the screening scenarios in the respective national/regional healthcare system.

RESULTS

Three themes developed. (1) Current screening approaches: there are no national AF screening programmes, with most AF detected in symptomatic patients. Patient-led screening exists via personal devices, creating screening inequity. (2) Feasibility of screening: single time point opportunistic screening in primary care using single-lead ECG devices was considered the most feasible. Software algorithms may aid identification of suitable patients and telehealth services have potential to support diagnosis. (3) Implementation requirements: sufficient evidence of benefit is required. National screening processes are required due to different payment mechanisms and health service regulations. Concerns about data security, and inclusivity for those without primary care access or personal devices must be addressed.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an overall awareness of AF screening. Opportunistic screening appears the most feasible across Europe. Challenges are health inequalities, identification of best target groups for screening, streamlined processes, the need for evidence of benefit and a tailored approach adapted to national realities.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults at Primary Care Visits: VITAL-AF Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) may cause preventable strokes. Guidelines differ regarding AF screening recommendations. We tested whether point-of-care screening with a handheld single-lead ECG at primary care practice visits increases diagnoses of AF.

METHODS

We randomized 16 primary care clinics 1:1 to AF screening using a handheld single-lead ECG (AliveCor KardiaMobile) during vital sign assessments, or usual care. Patients included were ages ≥65 years. Screening results were provided to primary care clinicians at the encounter. All confirmatory diagnostic testing and treatment decisions were made by the primary care clinician. New AF diagnoses during the 1-year follow-up were ascertained electronically and manually adjudicated. Proportions and incidence rates were calculated. Effect heterogeneity was assessed.

RESULTS

Of 30 715 patients without prevalent AF (n=15 393 screening [91% screened], n=15 322 control), 1.72% of individuals in the screening group had new AF diagnosed at 1 year versus 1.59% in the control group (risk difference, 0.13% [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.42]; P=0.38). In prespecified subgroup analyses, new AF diagnoses in the screening and control groups were greater among those aged ≥85 years (5.56% versus 3.76%, respectively; risk difference, 1.80% [95% CI, 0.18 to 3.30]). The difference in newly diagnosed AF between the screening period and the previous year was marginally greater in the screening versus control group (0.32% versus -0.12%; risk difference, 0.43% [95% CI, -0.01 to 0.84]). The proportion of individuals with newly diagnosed AF who were initiated on oral anticoagulants was not different in the screening (n=194, 73.5%) and control (n=172, 70.8%) arms (risk difference, 2.7% [95% CI, -5.5 to 10.4]).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for AF using a single-lead ECG at primary care visits did not affect new AF diagnoses among all individuals aged 65 years or older compared with usual care.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT03515057.

Validating risk models versus age alone for atrial fibrillation in a young Dutch population cohort: should atrial fibrillation risk prediction be expanded to younger community members?

BACKGROUND

Advancing age is the primary selection criterion for community screening for atrial fibrillation (AF), with selection often restricted to those aged ≥65 years. If multivariable models were shown to have considerable additional value over age alone in predicting AF risk among younger individuals, AF screening could be expanded to patients with lower age, but with high AF risk as per a validated risk model.

METHODS

We validated risk models CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for AF) and FHS-AF (Framingham Heart Study model for AF), and risk scores CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHA₂DS₂-VA, and presented their predictive abilities for 5-year and 10-year AF risk versus that of age alone in a young Dutch population cohort (PREVEND) free from AF at baseline. We assessed discrimination by the C-statistic and calibration by the calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot using survey-weighted Cox models.

RESULTS

During 5-year and 10-year follow-up there were n=98 (2.46/1000 person-years) and n=249 (3.29/1000 person-years) new AF cases, respectively, among 8265 participants with mean age 49±13 years. CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF both showed good discrimination for 5-year and 10-year AF (C-statistic range 0.83-0.86) with accurate calibration for 5-year AF, but overestimation of 10-year AF risk in highest-risk individuals. CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHA₂DS₂-VA relatively underperformed. Age alone showed similar discrimination to that of CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF both in the overall, young PREVEND cohort and in subgroups for lower age and lower stroke risk.

CONCLUSION

Multivariable models accurately discriminate for 5-year and 10-year AF risk among young European community-dwelling individuals. However, their additional discriminatory value over age alone was limited. Selection strategies for primary AF screening using multivariable models should not be expanded to younger individuals.

Patient-Led Mass Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in the Older Population Using Handheld Electrocardiographic Devices Integrated With a Clinician-Coordinated Remote Central Monitoring System: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial and Process Evaluation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people and increases the risk of stroke. The feasibility and effectiveness of the implementation of a patient-led AF screening program for older people are unknown.

Objective

This study aims to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of an AF screening program comprising patient-led monitoring of single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) with clinician-coordinated central monitoring to diagnose AF among community-dwelling people aged ≥75 years in Australia.

Methods

This is a nationwide randomized controlled implementation trial conducted via the internet and remotely among 200 community-dwelling adults aged ≥75 years with no known AF. Randomization will be performed in a 1:1 allocation ratio for the intervention versus control. Intervention group participants will be enrolled in the monitoring program at randomization. They will receive a handheld single-lead ECG device and training on the self-recording of ECGs on weekdays and submit their ECGs via their smartphones. The control group participants will receive usual care from their general practitioners for the initial 6 months and then commence the 6-month monitoring program. The ECGs will be reviewed centrally by trained personnel. Participants and their general practitioners will be notified of AF and other clinically significant ECG abnormalities.

Results

This study will establish the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing the intervention in this patient population. The primary clinical outcome is the AF detection rate, and the primary feasibility outcome is the patient satisfaction score. Other outcomes include appropriate use of anticoagulant therapy, participant recruitment rate, program engagement (eg, frequency of ECG transmission), agreement in ECG interpretation between the device automatic algorithm and clinicians, the proportion of participants who complete the trial and number of dropouts, and the impact of frailty on feasibility and outcomes. We will conduct a qualitative evaluation to examine the barriers to and acceptability and enablers of implementation. Ethics approval was obtained from the human research ethics committee at the University of Sydney (project number 2020/680). The results will be disseminated via conventional scientific forums, including peer-reviewed publications and presentations at national and international conferences.

Conclusions

By incorporating an integrated health care approach involving patient empowerment, centralized clinician-coordinated ECG monitoring, and facilitation of primary care and specialist services, it is possible to diagnose and treat AF early to reduce stroke risk. This study will provide new information on how to implement AF screening using digital health technology practicably and feasibly for older and frail populations residing in the community.

Trial Registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12621000184875; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=380877

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/34778

Biomarkers associated with rhythm status after cardioversion in patients with atrial fibrillation

Biomarkers may help to improve our knowledge about the complex pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF). In this study we sought to identify significant changes in biomarkers and clinical measures in patients with and without AF recurrence after electrical cardioversion. We measured 21 conventional and new biomarkers before and 30 days after electrical cardioversion and assessed the associations of changes in biomarker levels with rhythm status at follow-up. Significant between-group changes were observed for bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and total bilirubin. Their respective changes were - 10.4%, - 62.0% and - 25.6% in patients with sinus rhythm, and 3.1%, 1.1% and - 9.4% in patients with recurrent AF, for a between-group difference of - 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 19.3% to - 7.6%; P < 0.001), - 63.1% (95% CI - 76.6% to - 49.6%; P < 0.001) and - 16.3% (95% CI - 27.9% to - 4.7%; P = 0.007). In multivariable models, the reductions of BMP10 and NT-proBNP were significantly associated with follow-up rhythm status (β coefficient per 1 - SD decrease, - 3.85; 95% CI - 6.34 to - 1.35; P = 0.003 for BMP10 and - 5.84; 95% CI - 10.22 to - 1.47; P = 0.009 for NT-proBNP. In conclusion, changes in BMP10 und NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with rhythm status after cardioversion, suggesting that these markers may be dependent on the actual heart rhythm.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia, increases the risk of stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To review the evidence on screening for AF in adults without prior stroke to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Cochrane Library, and trial registries through October 5, 2020; references, experts, and literature surveillance through October 31, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of screening among asymptomatic persons without known AF or prior stroke; test accuracy studies; RCTs of anticoagulation among persons with AF; systematic reviews; and observational studies reporting harms.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers assessed titles/abstracts, full-text articles, and study quality and extracted data; when at least 3 similar studies were available, meta-analyses were conducted.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Detection of undiagnosed AF, test accuracy, mortality, stroke, stroke-related morbidity, and harms.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies (N = 113 784) were included. In 1 RCT (n = 28 768) of twice-daily electrocardiography (ECG) screening for 2 weeks, the likelihood of a composite end point (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, systemic embolism, all-cause mortality, and hospitalization for bleeding) was lower in the screened group over 6.9 years (hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .045), but that study had numerous limitations. In 4 RCTs (n = 32 491), significantly more AF was detected with intermittent and continuous ECG screening compared with no screening (risk difference range, 1.0%-4.8%). Treatment with warfarin over a mean of 1.5 years in populations with clinical, mostly persistent AF was associated with fewer ischemic strokes (pooled risk ratio [RR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.20-0.51]; 5 RCTs; n = 2415) and lower all-cause mortality (pooled RR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.50-0.93]) compared with placebo. Treatment with direct oral anticoagulants was also associated with lower incidence of stroke (adjusted odds ratios range, 0.32-0.44) in indirect comparisons with placebo. The pooled RR for major bleeding for warfarin compared with placebo was 1.8 (95% CI, 0.85-3.7; 5 RCTs; n = 2415), and the adjusted odds ratio for major bleeding for direct oral anticoagulants compared with placebo or no treatment ranged from 1.38 to 2.21, but CIs did not exclude a null effect.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although screening can detect more cases of unknown AF, evidence regarding effects on health outcomes is limited. Anticoagulation was associated with lower risk of first stroke and mortality but with increased risk of major bleeding, although estimates for this harm are imprecise; no trials assessed benefits and harms of anticoagulation among screen-detected populations.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia. The prevalence of AF increases with age, from less than 0.2% in adults younger than 55 years to about 10% in those 85 years or older, with a higher prevalence in men than in women. It is uncertain whether the prevalence of AF differs by race and ethnicity. Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke and is associated with a substantial increase in the risk of stroke. Approximately 20% of patients who have a stroke associated with AF are first diagnosed with AF at the time of the stroke or shortly thereafter.

OBJECTIVE

To update its 2018 recommendation, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) commissioned a systematic review on the benefits and harms of screening for AF in older adults, the accuracy of screening tests, the effectiveness of screening tests to detect previously undiagnosed AF compared with usual care, and the benefits and harms of anticoagulant therapy for the treatment of screen-detected AF in older adults.

POPULATION

Adults 50 years or older without a diagnosis or symptoms of AF and without a history of transient ischemic attack or stroke.

EVIDENCE ASSESSMENT

The USPSTF concludes that evidence is lacking, and the balance of benefits and harms of screening for AF in asymptomatic adults cannot be determined.

RECOMMENDATION

The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for AF. (I statement).

Screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in primary care using Holter monitoring and intermittent, ambulatory single-lead electrocardiography

BACKGROUND

Timely detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important because of its increased risk of thrombo-embolic events. Single time point screening interventions fall short in detection of paroxysmal AF, which requires prolonged electrocardiographic monitoring, usually using a Holter. However, traditional 24-48 h Holter monitoring is less appropriate for screening purposes because of its low diagnostic yield. Intermittent, ambulatory screening using a single-lead electrocardiogram (1 L-ECG) device can offer a more efficient alternative.

METHODS

Primary care patients of ≥65 years participated in an opportunistic screening study for AF. We invited patients with a negative 12 L-ECG to wear a Holter monitor for two weeks and to use a MyDiagnostick 1 L-ECG device thrice daily. We report the yield of paroxysmal AF found by Holter monitoring and calculate the diagnostic accuracy of the 1 L-ECG device's built-in AF detection algorithm with the Holter monitor as reference standard.

RESULTS

We included 270 patients, of whom four had AF in a median of 8.0 days of Holter monitoring, a diagnostic yield of 1.5% (95%-CI: 0.4-3.8%). In 205 patients we performed simultaneous 1 L-ECG screening. For diagnosing AF based on the 1 L-ECG device's AF detection algorithm, sensitivity was 66.7% (95%-CI: 9.4-99.2%), specificity 68.8% (95%-CI: 61.9-75.1%), positive predictive value 3.1% (95%-CI: 1.4-6.8%) and negative predictive value 99.3% (95%-CI: 96.6-99.9%).

CONCLUSION

We found a low diagnostic yield of paroxysmal AF using Holter monitoring in elderly primary care patients with a negative 12 L-ECG. The diagnostic accuracy of an intermittently, ambulatory used MyDiagnostick 1 L-ECG device as interpreted by its built-in AF detection algorithm is limited.

The effect of a case-finding app on the detection rate of atrial fibrillation compared with opportunistic screening in primary care patients: protocol for a cluster randomized trial

Background

Atrial fibrillation is a cardiac arrhythmia commonly encountered in a primary care setting. Current screening is limited to pulse palpation and ECG confirmation when an irregular pulse is found. Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation will, however, still be difficult to pick up. With the advent of smartphones, screening could be more cost-efficient by making use of simple applications, lowering the need for intensive screening to discover (paroxysmal) atrial fibrillation.

Methods/design

This cluster randomized trial will examine the effect of using a smartphone-based application such as FibriCheck® on the detection rate of atrial fibrillation in a Flemish general practice population. This study will be conducted in 22 primary care practices across the Flanders region of Belgium and will last 12 months. Patients above 65 years of age will be divided in control and intervention groups on the practice level. The control group will be subjected to standard opportunistic screening only, while the intervention group will be prescribed the FibriCheck® app on top of this opportunistic screening. The difference in detection rate between control and intervention groups will be calculated at the end of the study.

We will use the online platform INTEGO for pseudonymized data collection and analysis, and risk calculation.

Discussion

Smartphone applications might offer a way to cost-effectively screen for (paroxysmal) atrial fibrillation in a primary care setting. This could open the door for the update of future screening guidelines.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04545723. Registered on September 10, 2020.

Detection of occult atrial fibrillation with 24-hour ECG after cryptogenic acute stroke or transient ischaemic attack: A retrospective cross-sectional study in a primary care database in Israel

Background

Ischaemic stroke or cerebrovascular accident (CVA) due to occult atrial fibrillation (AF) may cause severe morbidity and mortality. Diagnosing occult AF can be challenging and there is no consensus regarding the optimal duration of screening. A 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram (ECG) is frequently employed to detect occult AF following ischaemic CVA.

Objectives

Demonstration of occult AF detection rate using a 24-hour Holter ECG in a primary care setting with descriptive analyses of independent variables to compare AF detected and non-detected patients.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study utilised primary care data and included patients 50 years and older with a new CVA or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) diagnosis followed by a 24-hour Holter examination within 6 months, between 01 January 2013 and 01 June 2019. The analyses included descriptive statistics comparing demographics and clinical characteristics in patients who had AF or Atrial Flutter (AFL) detection to those who did not.

Results

Out of 5015 eligible patients, 66 (1.3%) were diagnosed with AF/AFL, with a number needed to screen of 88.5. Compared with those without AF/AFL detection, those diagnosed were older (75.42 ± 7.89 vs. 69.89 ± 9.88, p = 0.050), had a higher prevalence of hypertension (80.3% vs. 66.8%, p = 0.021) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (71.2% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

24-hour Holter has a low AF/AFL detection rate. Older persons and those with hypertension or CKD are more likely to be detected with AF/AFL using this method.

Association of Wearable Device Use With Pulse Rate and Health Care Use in Adults With Atrial Fibrillation

Importance

Increasingly, individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) use wearable devices (hereafter wearables) that measure pulse rate and detect arrhythmia. The associations of wearables with health outcomes and health care use are unknown.

Objective

To characterize patients with AF who use wearables and compare pulse rate and health care use between individuals who use wearables and those who do not.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective, propensity-matched cohort study included 90 days of follow-up of patients in a tertiary care, academic health system. Included patients were adults with at least 1 AF-specific International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code from 2017 through 2019. Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify 125 individuals who used wearables and had adequate pulse-rate follow-up who were then matched using propensity scores 4 to 1 with 500 individuals who did not use wearables. Data were analyzed from June 2020 through February 2021.

Exposure

Using commercially available wearables with pulse rate or rhythm evaluation capabilities.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean pulse rates from measures taken in the clinic or hospital and a composite health care use score were recorded. The composite outcome included evaluation and management, ablation, cardioversion, telephone encounters, and number of rate or rhythm control medication orders.

Results

Among 16 320 patients with AF included in the analysis, 348 patients used wearables and 15 972 individuals did not use wearables. Prior to matching, patients using wearables were younger (mean [SD] age, 64.0 [13.0] years vs 70.0 [13.8] years; P < .001) and healthier (mean [SD] CHA2DS2-VASc [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 65 years or 65-74 years, diabetes, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, sex] score, 3.6 [2.0] vs 4.4 [2.0]; P < .001) compared with individuals not using wearables, with similar gender distribution (148 [42.5%] women vs 6722 women [42.1%]; P = .91). After matching, mean pulse rate was similar between 125 patients using wearables and 500 patients not using wearables (75.01 [95% CI, 72.74-77.27] vs 75.79 [95% CI, 74.68-76.90] beats per minute [bpm]; P = .54), whereas mean composite use score was higher among individuals using wearables (3.55 [95% CI, 3.31-3.80] vs 3.27 [95% CI, 3.14-3.40]; P = .04). Among measures in the composite outcome, there was a significant difference in use of ablation, occurring in 22 individuals who used wearables (17.6%) vs 37 individuals who did not use wearables (7.4%) (P = .001). In the regression analyses, mean composite use score was 0.28 points (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.56 points) higher among individuals using wearables compared with those not using wearables and mean pulse was similar, with a -0.79 bpm (95% CI -3.28 to 1.71 bpm) difference between the groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that follow-up health care use among individuals with AF was increased among those who used wearables compared with those with similar pulse rates who did not use wearables. Given the increasing use of wearables by patients with AF, prospective, randomized, long-term evaluation of the associations of wearable technology with health outcomes and health care use is needed.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in the Older Population: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of preventable strokes. Screening asymptomatic individuals for AF may increase anticoagulant use for stroke prevention.

Objective

To evaluate 2 home-based AF screening interventions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter randomized clinical trial recruited individuals from primary care practices aged 75 years or older with hypertension and without known AF. From April 5, 2015, to March 26, 2019, 856 participants were enrolled from 48 practices.

Interventions

The control group received standard care (routine clinical follow-up plus a pulse check and heart auscultation at baseline and 6 months). The screening group received a 2-week continuous electrocardiographic (cECG) patch monitor to wear at baseline and at 3 months, in addition to standard care. The screening group also received automated home blood pressure (BP) machines with oscillometric AF screening capability to use twice-daily during the cECG monitoring periods.

Main Outcomes and Measures

With intention-to-screen analysis, the primary outcome was AF detected by cECG monitoring or clinically within 6 months. Secondary outcomes included anticoagulant use, device adherence, and AF detection by BP monitors.

Results

Of the 856 participants, 487 were women (56.9%); mean (SD) age was 80.0 (4.0) years. Median cECG wear time was 27.4 of 28 days (interquartile range [IQR], 18.4-28.0 days). In the primary analysis, AF was detected in 23 of 434 participants (5.3%) in the screening group vs 2 of 422 (0.5%) in the control group (relative risk, 11.2; 95% CI, 2.7-47.1; P = .001; absolute difference, 4.8%; 95% CI, 2.6%-7.0%; P < .001; number needed to screen, 21). Of those with cECG-detected AF, median total time spent in AF was 6.3 hours (IQR, 4.2-14.0 hours; range 1.3 hours-28 days), and median duration of the longest AF episode was 5.7 hours (IQR, 2.9-12.9 hours). Anticoagulation was initiated in 15 of 20 patients (75.0%) with cECG-detected AF. By 6 months, anticoagulant therapy had been prescribed for 18 of 434 participants (4.1%) in the screening group vs 4 of 422 (0.9%) in the control group (relative risk, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.5-12.8; P = .007; absolute difference, 3.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-5.3%; P = .003). Twice-daily AF screening using the home BP monitor had a sensitivity of 35.0% (95% CI, 15.4%-59.2%), specificity of 81.0% (95% CI, 76.7%-84.8%), positive predictive value of 8.9% (95% CI, 4.9%-15.5%), and negative predictive value of 95.9% (95% CI, 94.5%-97.0%). Adverse skin reactions requiring premature discontinuation of cECG monitoring occurred in 5 of 434 participants (1.2%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this randomized clinical trial, among older community-dwelling individuals with hypertension, AF screening with a wearable cECG monitor was well tolerated, increased AF detection 10-fold, and prompted initiation of anticoagulant therapy in most cases. Compared with continuous ECG, intermittent oscillometric screening with a BP monitor was an inferior strategy for detecting paroxysmal AF. Large trials with hard clinical outcomes are now needed to evaluate the potential benefits and harms of AF screening.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02392754.

Clinical Factors Associated with Atrial Fibrillation Detection on Single-Time Point Screening Using a Hand-Held Single-Lead ECG Device

Our aim was to assess the prevalence of unknown atrial fibrillation (AF) among adults during single-time point rhythm screening performed during meetings or social recreational activities organized by patient groups or volunteers. A total of 2814 subjects (median age 68 years) underwent AF screening by a handheld single-lead ECG device (MyDiagnostick). Overall, 56 subjects (2.0%) were diagnosed with AF, as a result of 12-lead ECG following a positive/suspected recording. Screening identified AF in 2.9% of the subjects ≥ 65 years. None of the 265 subjects aged below 50 years was found positive at AF screening. Risk stratification for unknown AF based on a CHA2DS2VASc > 0 in males and >1 in females (or CHA2DS2VA > 0) had a high sensitivity (98.2%) and a high negative predictive value (99.8%) for AF detection. A slightly lower sensitivity (96.4%) was achieved by using age ≥ 65 years as a risk stratifier. Conversely, raising the threshold at ≥75 years showed a low sensitivity. Within the subset of subjects aged ≥ 65 a CHA2DS2VASc > 1 in males and >2 in females, or a CHA2DS2VA > 1 had a high sensitivity (94.4%) and negative predictive value (99.3%), while age ≥ 75 was associated with a marked drop in sensitivity for AF detection.