Estimating health opportunity costs in low-income and middle-income countries: a novel approach and evidence from cross-country data

Use of Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds in Healthcare Public Policy: Progress and Challenges

The article offers a comparative analysis of the influence of cost-effectiveness thresholds in the decision-making processes in financing policies, coverage, and price regulation of health technologies in nine countries. We investigated whether countries used cost-effectiveness thresholds for public health policy decision making and found that few countries have adopted the cost-effectiveness threshold as an official criterion for financing, reimbursement, or pricing. However, in countries where it is applied, such as Thailand, the results have been very favorable in terms of minimizing health technology prices and ensuring the financial sustainability of the health system. Although the cost-effectiveness threshold has opportunities for improvement, particularly in certain institutional contexts and with adequate participation of the different strategic actors in the formulation of public policy, its potential use and added value are significant in various aspects.

Estimating the Incremental Cost Per QALY Produced by the Spanish NHS: A Fixed-Effect Econometric Approach

BACKGROUND

Knowing the health opportunity costs of funding decisions is crucial to assess whether the health gains associated with new interventions are larger than the health losses imposed by the displacement of resources. Empirical estimates based on the effect of health spending on health outcomes have been proposed in several countries, including Spain, as a proxy to capture these opportunity costs. However, there is a need to regularly update existing health opportunity cost estimates and to explore the role of omitted variable bias in these estimations.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to provide an updated and refined estimate of the causal impact of health spending on health in Spain that can be translated into an estimate of the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year produced by the Spanish national health system.

METHODS

We applied fixed-effect models using data for 17 Spanish regions from 2002 until 2022 to estimate the impact of public health spending on health outcomes and explored the extent of omitted variable bias. Changes in these estimates over time were assessed and alternative specifications were tested.

RESULTS

Based on fixed-effect models with control variables, the estimated spending elasticity was 0.061, which translated into an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year of approximately €34,000. The bias-corrected elasticity was 0.075, with a corresponding incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year of €27,000. We found that the estimated impact of spending on health decreases when recent years of data are added, and that the extent of omitted variable bias appears to increase, particularly when adding the COVID-19 pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an updated estimation of the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year produced by the Spanish national health system. The estimates provided can be easily updatable as new data become accessible, and the methods applied might be transferable to other settings with similar available data.

Projected health and economic effects of a pan-tuberculosis treatment regimen: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

A pan-tuberculosis regimen that could be initiated without knowledge of drug susceptibility has been proposed as an objective of tuberculosis regimen development. We modelled the health and economic benefits of such a regimen and analysed which of its features contribute most to impact and savings.

METHODS

We constructed a mathematical model of tuberculosis treatment parameterised with data from the published literature specific to three countries with a high tuberculosis burden (India, the Philippines, and South Africa). Our model simulated cohorts of newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients, including drug susceptibility testing if performed, regimen assignment, discontinuation, adherence, costs, and resulting outcomes of durable cure (microbiological cure without relapse), need for retreatment, or death. We compared a pan-tuberculosis regimen meeting the WHO 2023 target regimen profile against the standard of care of separate rifampicin-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant regimens. We estimated incremental cures; averted deaths, secondary cases, and costs; and prices below which a pan-tuberculosis regimen would be cost saving. We also assessed scenarios intended to describe which mechanisms of benefit from a pan-tuberculosis regimen (including improved characteristics compared with the current rifampicin-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant regimens and improved regimen assignment and retention in care for patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis) would be most impactful. Results are presented as a range of means across countries with the most extreme 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) from the three UI ranges.

FINDINGS

Compared with the standard of care, a pan-tuberculosis regimen could increase the proportion of patients durably cured after an initial treatment attempt from 69-71% (95% UI 57-80) to 75-76% (68-83), preventing 30-32% of the deaths (20-43) and 17-20% of the transmission (9-29) that occur after initial tuberculosis diagnosis. Considering savings to the health system and patients during and after the initial treatment attempt, the regimen could reduce non-drug costs by 32-42% (22-49) and would be cost saving at prices below US$170-340 (130-510). A rifamycin-containing regimen that otherwise met pan-tuberculosis targets yielded only slightly less impact, indicating that most of the benefits from a pan-tuberculosis regimen resulted from its improvements upon the rifampicin-susceptible standard of care. Eliminating non-adherence and treatment discontinuation, for example via a long-acting injectable regimen, increased health impact and savings.

INTERPRETATION

In countries with a high tuberculosis burden, a shorter, highly efficacious, safe, and tolerable regimen to treat all tuberculosis could yield substantial health improvements and savings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A new approach to Health Benefits Package design: an application of the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi

An efficient allocation of limited resources in low-income settings offers the opportunity to improve population-health outcomes given the available health system capacity. Efforts to achieve this are often framed through the lens of "health benefits packages" (HBPs), which seek to establish which services the public healthcare system should include in its provision. Analytic approaches widely used to weigh evidence in support of different interventions and inform the broader HBP deliberative process however have limitations. In this work, we propose the individual-based Thanzi La Onse (TLO) model as a uniquely-tailored tool to assist in the evaluation of Malawi-specific HBPs while addressing these limitations. By mechanistically modelling-and calibrating to extensive, country-specific data-the incidence of disease, health-seeking behaviour, and the capacity of the healthcare system to meet the demand for care under realistic constraints on human resources for health available, we were able to simulate the health gains achievable under a number of plausible HBP strategies for the country. We found that the HBP emerging from a linear constrained optimisation analysis (LCOA) achieved the largest health gain-∼8% reduction in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2023 and 2042 compared to the benchmark scenario-by concentrating resources on high-impact treatments. This HBP however incurred a relative excess in DALYs in the first few years of its implementation. Other feasible approaches to prioritisation were assessed, including service prioritisation based on patient characteristics, rather than service type. Unlike the LCOA-based HBP, this approach achieved consistent health gains relative to the benchmark scenario on a year- to-year basis, and a 5% reduction in DALYs over the whole period, which suggests an approach based upon patient characteristics might prove beneficial in the future.

The respiratory syncytial virus vaccine and monoclonal antibody landscape: the road to global access

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the second most common pathogen causing infant mortality. Additionally, RSV is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults (age ≥60 years) similar to influenza. A protein-based maternal vaccine and monoclonal antibody (mAb) are now market-approved to protect infants, while an mRNA and two protein-based vaccines are approved for older adults. First-year experience protecting infants with nirsevimab in high-income countries shows a major public health benefit. It is expected that the RSV vaccine landscape will continue to develop in the coming years to protect all people globally. The vaccine and mAb landscape remain active with 30 candidates in clinical development using four approaches: protein-based, live-attenuated and chimeric vector, mRNA, and mAbs. Candidates in late-phase trials aim to protect young infants using mAbs, older infants and toddlers with live-attenuated vaccines, and children and adults using protein-based and mRNA vaccines. This Review provides an overview of RSV vaccines highlighting different target populations, antigens, and trial results. As RSV vaccines have not yet reached low-income and middle-income countries, we outline urgent next steps to minimise the vaccine delay.

Comparing scale up of status quo hypertension care against dual combination therapy as separate pills or single pill combinations: an economic evaluation in 24 low- and middle-income countries

Background

International hypertension treatment guidelines recommend initiating pharmacological treatment with combination therapy and using fixed dose single pill combinations (SPCs) to improve adherence. However, few countries have adopted combination therapy as a form of first-line treatment and SPC uptake in low- and middle-income countries is low due in part to cost and availability. Evidence on costs and cost-effectiveness is needed as health authorities consider incorporating new recommendations into national clinical practice guidelines.

Methods

Over a 30-year time horizon, we used an Excel-based Markov cohort state-transition model to assess the financial costs (screening, treatment, program, and supply chain costs) and socio-economic outcomes (health outcomes, value of lives saved, productivity losses averted) of three antihypertensive treatment scenarios. A baseline scenario scaled treatment among adults age 30 plus while assuming continuation of the widespread practice of initiating treatment with monotherapy. Scenarios one and two scaled treatment while initiating patients on two antihypertensive medications, either as separate pills or as a SPC. Analysis inputs are informed by country-specific data, meta-analyses of the blood-pressure lowering of antihypertensive medications, and own-studies of medication costs. We compared costs, cost-effectiveness, and net-benefits across scenarios, and assessed uncertainty in a one-way sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Using dual combination therapy (with or without SPCs) as first-line treatment would increase costs relative to current practices that largely use monotherapy. Required additional annual resources averaged as much as 3.6, 0.9, and 0.2 percent of government health expenditures in the analysis' low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle income countries. However, across 24 countries, over the next 30 years, combination therapy with separate pills could save 430,000 more lives and combination therapy with SPCs could save 564,000 more lives compared to baseline treatment practices. Administration of two or more medications using SPCs generated higher net benefits in most countries (16/24) compared to the baseline scenario.

Interpretation

First line treatment employing SPCs is likely to generate higher net benefits compared to status quo treatment practices in countries with relatively higher incomes. To improve population health, national health systems would benefit from reducing structural and other barriers to the use of combination therapy and SPCs.

Funding

This journal article was supported by TEPHINET cooperative agreement number 1NU2HGH000044-01-0 funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study

BACKGROUND

Individuals who were formerly incarcerated have high tuberculosis incidence, but are generally not considered among the risk groups eligible for tuberculosis prevention. We investigated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection screening and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for individuals who were formerly incarcerated in Brazil.

METHODS

Using published evidence for Brazil, we constructed a Markov state transition model estimating tuberculosis-related health outcomes and costs among individuals who were formerly incarcerated, by simulating transitions between health states over time. The analysis compared tuberculosis infection screening and TPT, to no screening, considering a combination of M tuberculosis infection tests and TPT regimens. We quantified health effects as reductions in tuberculosis cases, tuberculosis deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We assessed costs from a tuberculosis programme perspective. We report intervention cost-effectiveness as the incremental costs per DALY averted, and tested how results changed across subgroups of the target population.

FINDINGS

Compared with no intervention, an intervention incorporating tuberculin skin testing and treatment with 3 months of isoniazid and rifapentine would avert 31 (95% uncertainty interval 14-56) lifetime tuberculosis cases and 4·1 (1·4-5·8) lifetime tuberculosis deaths per 1000 individuals, and cost US$242 per DALY averted. All test and regimen combinations were cost-effective compared with no screening. Younger age, longer incarceration, and more recent prison release were each associated with significantly greater health benefits and more favourable cost-effectiveness ratios, although the intervention was cost-effective for all subgroups examined.

INTERPRETATION

M tuberculosis infection screening and TPT for individuals who were formerly incarcerated appears cost-effective, and would provide valuable health gains.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination

An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and -50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.

Connecting Female Entertainment Workers in Cambodia to Health Care Services Using mHealth: Economic Evaluation of Mobile Link

BACKGROUND

Mobile Link is a mobile phone-based intervention to increase access to, and use of, health care services among female entertainment workers in Cambodia who face higher risks for specific diseases and gender-based violence. A multisite randomized controlled trial showed that Mobile Link connected female entertainment workers with outreach workers for information and escorted referrals after 6 months but did not lead to statistically significant improvements in HIV and sexually transmitted infection testing, contraceptive use, and condom use.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to conduct a 3-part economic evaluation of Mobile Link to understand its costs, value, and affordability.

METHODS

We conducted cost, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact analyses of Mobile Link using cost and outcomes data from the Mobile Link trial and other sources. For the cost analysis, we estimated the total, per-person, and incremental costs of Mobile Link compared with usual care. Using probabilistic decision-analytic models, we estimated the 1-year cost-effectiveness of Mobile Link from payer and combined payer and patient perspectives by converting selected primary and secondary outcomes from the trial to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Finally, we estimated the financial costs of scaling up Mobile Link's messaging and outreach services to 70% of female entertainment workers in 5 years.

RESULTS

The incremental costs of Mobile Link were US $199 from a payer perspective and US $195 per person from a combined payer and patient perspective. With an average of 0.018 (95% predicted interval -0.088 to 0.126) DALYs averted, Mobile Link's cost-effectiveness was US $10,955 per DALY from a payer perspective (US $10,755 per DALY averted from a payer and patient perspective). The costs of Mobile Link would have to decrease by 85%, or its effectiveness would have to be 5.56 times higher, for the intervention to meet the upper limit of recommended cost-effectiveness thresholds in Cambodia (US $1671 per DALY averted). The 5-year cost of scaling Mobile Link to 34,790 female entertainment workers was estimated at US $1.64 million or US $46 per person per year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a comprehensive economic evaluation of Mobile Link. We found that Mobile Link is not likely to be cost-effective unless its costs decrease or its effectiveness increases. Scaling up Mobile Link to more female entertainment workers is estimated to cost less than the costs of the trial. Given the importance of linking female entertainment workers to essential services, future research should focus on enhancing the effectiveness of Mobile Link or developing new mobile health interventions for this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03117842; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03117842.

Using economic analysis to inform health resource allocation: lessons from Malawi

Despite making remarkable strides in improving health outcomes, Malawi faces concerns about sustaining the progress achieved due to limited fiscal space and donor dependency. The imperative for efficient health spending becomes evident, necessitating strategic allocation of resources to areas with the greatest impact on mortality and morbidity. Health benefits packages hold promise in supporting efficient resource allocation. However, despite defining these packages over the last two decades, their development and implementation have posed significant challenges for Malawi. In response, the Malawian government, in collaboration with the Thanzi la Onse Programme, has developed a set of tools and frameworks, primarily based on cost-effectiveness analysis, to guide the design of health benefits packages likely to achieve national health objectives. This review provides an overview of these tools and frameworks, accompanied by other related analyses, aiming to better align health financing with health benefits package prioritization. The paper is organized around five key policy questions facing decision-makers: (i) What interventions should the health system deliver? (ii) How should resources be allocated geographically? (iii) How should investments in health system inputs be prioritized? (iv) How should equity considerations be incorporated into resource allocation decisions? and (v) How should evidence generation be prioritized to support resource allocation decisions (guiding research)? The tools and frameworks presented here are intended to be compatible for use in diverse and often complex healthcare systems across Africa, supporting the health resource allocation process as countries pursue Universal Health Coverage.

Cost-effectiveness of COVID rapid diagnostic tests for patients with severe/critical illness in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for coronavirus disease (COVID) are used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to inform treatment decisions. However, to date, it is unclear when this use is cost-effective. Existing analyses are limited to a narrow set of countries and uses. The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID RDTs to inform the treatment of patients with severe illness in LMICs, considering real world practice.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of COVID testing across LMICs using a decision tree model, differentiating results by country income level, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence, and testing scenario (none, RDTs, polymerase chain reaction tests-PCRs and combinations). LMIC experts defined realistic care pathways and treatment options. Using a healthcare provider perspective and net monetary benefit approach, we assessed both intended (COVID symptom alleviation) and unintended (treatment side effects) health and economic impacts for each testing scenario. We included the side effects of corticosteroids, which are often the only available treatment for COVID. Because side effects depend both on the treatment and the patient's underlying illness (COVID or COVID-like illnesses, such as influenza), we considered the prevalence of COVID-like illnesses in our analyses. We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing of patients with severe COVID-like illness can be cost-effective in all LMICs, though only in some circumstances. High influenza prevalence among suspected COVID cases improves cost-effectiveness, since incorrectly provided corticosteroids may worsen influenza outcomes. In low- and some lower-middle-income countries, only patients with a high index of suspicion for COVID should be tested with RDTs, while other patients should be presumed to not have COVID. In some lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, suspected severe COVID cases should almost always be tested. Further, in these settings, negative test results in patients with a high initial index of suspicion should be confirmed through PCR and, during influenza outbreaks, positive results in patients with a low initial index of suspicion should also be confirmed with a PCR. The use of interleukin-6 receptor blockers, when supported by testing, may also be cost-effective in higher-income LMICs. The cost at which they would be cost-effective in low-income countries ($162 to $406 per treatment course) is below current prices. The primary limitation of our analysis is substantial uncertainty around some of the parameters in our model due to limited data, most notably on current COVID mortality with standard of care, and insufficient evidence on the impact of corticosteroids on patients with severe influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID testing can be cost-effective to inform treatment of LMIC patients with severe COVID-like disease. The optimal algorithm is driven by country income level and health budgets, the level of suspicion that the patient may have COVID, and influenza prevalence. Further research to better characterize the unintended effects of corticosteroids, particularly on influenza cases, could improve decision making around the treatment of those with COVID-like symptoms in LMICs.

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of expanding routine immunization coverage in India through Intensified Mission Indradhanush

Many children do not receive a full schedule of childhood vaccines, yet there is limited evidence on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for improving vaccination coverage. Evidence is even scarcer on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for reaching 'zero-dose children', who have not received any routine vaccines. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of periodic intensification of routine immunization (PIRI), a widely applied strategy for increasing vaccination coverage. We focused on Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a large-scale PIRI intervention implemented in India in 2017-2018. In 40 sampled districts, we measured the incremental economic cost of IMI using primary data, and used controlled interrupted time-series regression to estimate the incremental vaccination doses delivered. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the Lives Saved Tool and reported cost-effectiveness from immunization programme and societal perspectives. We found that, in sampled districts, IMI had an estimated incremental cost of 2021US$13.7 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.6 to 17.4) million from an immunization programme perspective and increased vaccine delivery by an estimated 2.2 (-0.5 to 4.8) million doses over a 12-month period, averting an estimated 1413 (-350 to 3129) deaths. The incremental cost from a programme perspective was $6.21 per dose ($2.80 to dominated), $82.99 per zero-dose child reached ($39.85 to dominated), $327.63 ($147.65 to dominated) per DALY averted, $360.72 ($162.56 to dominated) per life-year saved and $9701.35 ($4372.01 to dominated) per under-5 death averted. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 1× per-capita GDP per DALY averted, IMI was estimated to be cost-effective with 90% probability. This evidence suggests IMI was both impactful and cost-effective for improving vaccination coverage, though there is a high degree of uncertainty in the results. As vaccination programmes expand coverage, unit costs may increase due to the higher costs of reaching currently unvaccinated children.

Economic implications of novel regimens for tuberculosis treatment in three high-burden countries: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

With numerous trials investigating novel drug combinations to treat tuberculosis, we aimed to evaluate the extent to which future improvements in tuberculosis treatment regimens could offset potential increases in drug costs.

METHODS

In this modelling analysis, we used an ingredients-based approach to estimate prices at which novel regimens for rifampin-susceptible and rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment would be cost-neutral or cost-effective compared with standards of care in India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We modelled regimens meeting targets set in the WHO's 2023 Target Regimen Profiles (TRPs). Our decision-analytical model tracked cohorts of adults initiating rifampin-susceptible or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment, simulating their health outcomes and costs accumulated during and following treatment under standard-of-care and novel regimen scenarios. Price thresholds included short-term cost-neutrality (considering only savings accrued during treatment), medium-term cost-neutrality (additionally considering savings from averted retreatments and secondary cases), and cost-effectiveness (incorporating willingness-to-pay for improved health outcomes).

FINDINGS

Total medium-term costs per person treated using standard-of-care regimens were estimated at US$450 (95% uncertainty interval 310-630) in India, $560 (350-860) in the Philippines, and $730 (530-1090) in South Africa for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis (current drug costs $46) and $2100 (1590-2810) in India, $2610 (2090-3280) in the Philippines, and $3790 (3090-4630) in South Africa for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (current drug costs $432). A rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis regimen meeting the optimal targets defined in the TRPs could be cost-neutral in the short term at drug costs of $140 (90-210) per full course in India, $230 (130-380) in the Philippines, and $280 (180-460) in South Africa. For rifampin-resistant tuberculosis, short-term cost-neutral thresholds were higher with $930 (720-1230) in India, $1180 (980-1430) in the Philippines, and $1480 (1230-1780) in South Africa. Medium-term cost-neutral prices were approximately $50-100 higher than short-term cost-neutral prices for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis and $250-550 higher for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis. Health system cost-neutral prices that excluded patient-borne costs were 45-70% lower (rifampin-susceptible regimens) and 15-50% lower (rifampin-resistant regimens) than the cost-neutral prices that included patient costs. Cost-effective prices were substantially higher. Shorter duration was the most important driver of medium-term savings with novel regimens, followed by ease of adherence.

INTERPRETATION

Improved tuberculosis regimens, particularly shorter regimens or those that facilitate better adherence, could reduce overall costs, potentially offsetting higher prices.

FUNDING

WHO.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB. We used genomic and demographic data to parameterize a mathematical model estimating long-term health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in 2022 USD ($) for each treatment strategy for patients 15 years and older diagnosed with pulmonary RR-TB in Moldova, a country with a high burden of TB drug resistance. For each individual, we simulated the natural history of TB and associated treatment outcomes, as well as the process of acquiring resistance to each of 12 anti-TB drugs. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM was cost-effective. This strategy was estimated to reduce lifetime costs by $3,366 (95% UI: [1,465, 5,742] p < 0.001) per individual, with a nonsignificant change in QALYs (-0.06; 95% UI: [-0.49, 0.03] p = 0.790). For those stopping moxifloxacin under the BPaLM regimen, continuing with BPaL plus clofazimine (BPaLC) provided more QALYs at lower cost than continuing with BPaL alone. Strategies based on 6 months of BPaLM had at least a 93% chance of being cost-effective, so long as BPaLC was continued in the event of stopping moxifloxacin. BPaLM for 6 months also reduced the average time spent with TB resistant to amikacin, bedaquiline, clofazimine, cycloserine, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide, while it increased the average time spent with TB resistant to delamanid and pretomanid. Sensitivity analyses showed 6 months of BPaLM to be cost-effective across a broad range of values for the relative effectiveness of BPaLM, and the proportion of the cohort with FQ-R. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM would be expected to save Moldova's national TB program budget $7.1 million (95% UI: [1.3 million, 15.4 million] p = 0.002) over the 5-year period from implementation. Our analysis did not account for all possible interactions between specific drugs with regard to treatment outcomes, resistance acquisition, or the consequences of specific types of severe adverse events, nor did we model how the intervention may affect TB transmission dynamics.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to standard of care, longer regimens, the implementation of the 6-month BPaLM regimen could improve the cost-effectiveness of care for individuals diagnosed with RR-TB, particularly in settings with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. Further research may be warranted to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of shorter RR-TB regimens across settings with varied drug-resistant TB burdens and national income levels.

Targeting strategies of antenatal balanced energy and protein supplementation in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: study protocol for a randomized effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

Antenatal balanced energy and protein (BEP) supplements have well-documented benefits for pregnancy outcomes. However, considerable practical gaps remain in the effective and cost-effective delivery of antenatal BEP supplements at scale in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

A randomized effectiveness study will be conducted in two sub-cities of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation of different targeting strategies of antenatal BEP supplements. Pregnant women aged 18 to 49, with a gestational age of 24 weeks or less, and attending antenatal visits in one of the nine study health facilities are eligible for enrollment. In six of the health facilities, participants will be randomized to one of three study arms: control (Arm 1), targeted BEP provision based on baseline nutritional status (Arm 2), and targeted BEP supplementation based on baseline nutritional status and monthly gestational weight gain (GWG) monitoring (Arm 3). In the remaining three facilities, participants will be assigned to universal BEP provision (Arm 4). Participants in Arms 2 and 3 will receive BEP supplements if they have undernutrition at enrollment, as defined by a baseline body mass index less than 18.5 kg/m2 or mid-upper arm circumference less than 23 cm. In Arm 3, in addition to targeting based on baseline undernutrition, regular weight measurements will be used to identify insufficient GWG and inform the initiation of additional BEP supplements. Participants in Arm 4 will receive BEP supplements until the end of pregnancy, regardless of baseline nutritional status or GWG. All participants will receive standard antenatal care, including iron and folic acid supplementation. A total of 5400 pregnant women will be enrolled, with 1350 participants in each arm. Participants will be followed up monthly during their visits to the antenatal facilities until delivery. Maternal and infant health status will be evaluated within 72 h after delivery and at 6 weeks postpartum. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the different BEP targeting strategies in preventing adverse pregnancy outcomes will be compared across arms. Qualitative data will be analyzed to assess the feasibility, acceptability, and implementation of different supplementation strategies.

DISCUSSION

This study will inform global recommendations and operational guidelines for the effective and cost-effective delivery of antenatal BEP supplements. The targeted approaches have the potential for broader scale-up in Ethiopia and other low-resource settings with a high burden of undernutrition among pregnant women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT06125860. Registered November 9, 2023.

Rapid cost-effectiveness analysis: hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis for patients with acute kidney injury in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

To ensure the long-term sustainability of its Community-Based Health Insurance scheme, the Government of Rwanda is working on using Health Technology Assessment (HTA) to prioritize its resources for health. The objectives of the study were to rapidly assess (1) the cost-effectiveness and (2) the budget impact of providing PD versus HD for patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) in the tertiary care setting in Rwanda.

METHODS

A rapid cost-effectiveness analysis for patients with AKI was conducted to support prioritization. An 'adaptive' HTA approach was undertaken by adjusting the international Decision Support Initiative reference case for time and data constraints. Available local and international data were used to analyze the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of peritoneal dialysis (PD) compared with hemodialysis (HD) in the tertiary hospital setting.

RESULTS

The analysis found that HD was slightly more effective and slightly more expensive in the payer perspective for most patients with AKI (aged 15-49). HD appeared to be cost-effective when only comparing these two dialysis strategies with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 378,174 Rwandan francs (RWF) or 367 United States dollars (US$), at a threshold of 0.5 × gross domestic product per capita (RWF 444,074 or US$431). Sensitivity analysis found that reducing the cost of HD kits would make HD even more cost-effective. Uncertainty regarding PD costs remains. Budget impact analysis demonstrated that reducing the cost of the biggest cost driver, HD kits, could produce significantly more savings in five years than switching to PD. Thus, price negotiations could significantly improve the efficiency of HD provision.

CONCLUSION

Dialysis is costly and covered by insurance in many countries for the financial protection of patients. This analysis enabled policymakers to make evidence-based decisions to improve the efficiency of dialysis provision.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings.

METHODS

We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84).

RESULTS

Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

Marginal cost per QALY estimates: What are they good for?

Estimates of the marginal cost per quality-adjusted life year (MCPQ) are available for health care systems worldwide. Researchers routinely make claims about these estimates and how they should inform policymaking. This commentary considers these claims by taking a recent article from Health Policy as a case study. Claims are made about the past performance of the health service and about future decisions and relate to such considerations as productivity, the impact of technology approvals, cost-effectiveness thresholds, and budget allocation. We argue that the evidence does not justify these claims and MCPQ estimates should instead inform questions about the consequences of changes in expenditure.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis in six high tuberculosis incidence countries: a mathematical modelling study

Background

The burden of childhood tuberculosis remains high globally, largely due to under-diagnosis. Decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis services to lower health system levels could improve case detection, but there is little empirically based evidence on cost-effectiveness or budget impact.

Methods

In this mathematical modelling study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising a comprehensive diagnosis package for childhood tuberculosis to district hospitals (DH-focused) or primary health centres (PHC-focused) compared to standard of care (SOC). The project was conducted in Cambodia, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Uganda between August 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2021. A mathematical model was developed to assess the health and economic outcomes of the intervention from a health system perspective. Estimated outcomes were tuberculosis cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We also calculated the budget impact of nationwide implementation. The TB-Speed Decentralization study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04038632.

Findings

For the DH-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $263 (Cambodia) and $342 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. For the PHC-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $477 (Cambodia) and $599 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. Results were sensitive to TB prevalence and the discount rate used. The additional costs of implementing the DH-focused strategy ranged between $12.8 M (range 10.8-16.4) (Cambodia) and $50.4 M (36.5-74.4) (Mozambique), and between $13.9 M (12.6-15.6) (Sierra Leone) and $134.6 M (127.1-143.0) (Uganda) for the PHC-focused strategy.

Interpretation

The DH-focused strategy may be cost-effective in some countries, depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold used for policy making. Either intervention would require substantial early investment.

Funding

Unitaid.

Modelling the health and economic impacts ofM72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination: Estimates for South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis remains a major public health problem in South Africa, with an estimated 300,000 cases and 55,000 deaths in 2021. New tuberculosis vaccines could play an important role in reducing this burden. Phase IIb trials have suggested efficacy of the M72/AS01E vaccine candidate and BCG-revaccination. The potential population impact of these vaccines is unknown.

METHODS

We used an age-stratified transmission model of tuberculosis, calibrated to epidemiological data from South Africa, to estimate the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination. We simulated M72/AS01E vaccination scenarios over the period 2030-2050 and BCG-revaccination scenarios over the period 2025-2050. We explored a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. We calculated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths and costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.

FINDINGS

M72/AS01E vaccination may have a larger impact than BCG-revaccination, averting approximately 80% more cases and deaths by 2050. Both vaccines were found to be cost-effective or cost saving (compared to no new vaccine) across a range of vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies from both the health system and societal perspective. The impact of M72/AS01E is dependent on the assumed efficacy of the vaccine in uninfected individuals. Extending BCG-revaccination to HIV-infected individuals on ART increased health impact by approximately 15%, but increased health system costs by approximately 70%.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that M72/AS01E vaccination or BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective in South Africa. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimated impact and costs due to uncertainty in vaccine characteristics and the choice of delivery strategy.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-001754). This work used the Cirrus UK National Tier-2 HPC Service at EPCC (https://www.cirrus.ac.uk) funded by the University of Edinburgh and EPSRC (EP/P020267/1).

Systematic review of the impact of health care expenditure on health outcome measures: implications for cost-effectiveness thresholds

OBJECTIVE

Empirical estimates of the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures may inform the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) for guiding funding decisions. This study aims to systematically review studies that estimated this, summarize and compare the estimates by country income level.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, York Research database, and [anonymized] for Reviews and Dissemination database from inception to 1 August 2023. For inclusion, a study had to be an original article, estimating the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures at a country level, and presented estimates, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

We included 18 studies with 385 estimates. The median (range) estimates were PPP$ 11,224 (PPP$ 223 - PPP$ 288,816) per QALY gained and PPP$ 5,963 (PPP$ 71 - PPP$ 165,629) per DALY averted. As ratios of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC), these estimates were 0.376 (0.041-182.840) and 0.318 (0.004-37.315) times of GDPPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The commonly used CET of GDPPC seems to be too high for all countries, but especially low-to-middle-income countries where the potential health losses from misallocation of the same money are greater.

REGISTRATION

The review protocol was published and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020147276).

The value-based price of transformative gene therapy for sickle cell disease: a modeling analysis

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited, progressively debilitating blood disorder. Emerging gene therapies (GTx) may lead to a complete remission, the benefits of such can only be realized if GTx is affordable and accessible in the low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) with the greatest SCD burden. To estimate the health impacts and country-specific value-based prices (VBP) of a future gene therapy for SCD using a cost-utility model framework. We developed a lifetime Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of GTx versus standard of care for SCD. We modeled populations in seven LMICs and six high-income countries (HICs) estimating lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in comparison to estimates of a country's cost-effectiveness threshold. Each country's unique VBP for GTx was calculated via threshold analysis. Relative to SOC treatment alone, we found that hypothetical GTx reduced the number of people symptomatic with SCD over time leading to fewer DALYs. Across countries, VBPs ranged from $3.6 million (US) to $700 (Uganda). Our results indicate a wide range of GTx prices are required if it is to be made widely available and may inform burden and affordability for 'target product profiles' of GTx in SCD.

Why cost-effectiveness thresholds for global health donors should differ from thresholds for Ministries of Health (and why it matters)

Healthcare cost-effectiveness analysis is increasingly used to inform priority-setting in low- and middle-income countries and by global health donors. As part of such analyses, cost-effectiveness thresholds are commonly used to determine what is, or is not, cost-effective. Recent years have seen a shift in best practice from a rule-of-thumb 1x or 3x per capita GDP threshold towards using thresholds that, in theory, reflect the opportunity cost of new investments within a given country. In this paper, we observe that international donors face both different resource constraints and opportunity costs compared to national decision-makers. Hence, their perspective on cost-effectiveness thresholds must be different. We discuss the potential implications of distinguishing between national and donor thresholds and outline broad options for how to approach setting a donor-perspective threshold. Further work is needed to clarify healthcare cost-effectiveness threshold theory in the context of international aid and to develop practical policy frameworks for implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of dialysis and kidney transplantation to treat end-stage renal disease in Ukraine

OBJECTIVE

Aim: To determine the economic feasibility of using kidney transplantation compared to hemodialysis in end-stage renal disease in the long term in countries with a low and medium level of economic development using the example of Ukraine.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and Methods: The cost effectiveness analysis method was used. Conducted Markov modeling and comparison of the consequences of kidney transplantation and hemodialysis in terms of treatment costs and the number of added years of life for a cohort of 1,675 patients were carried out. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is defined.

RESULTS

Results: Based on the results of modeling, it was determined that among 1,675 patients with end-stage kidney disease in Ukraine, 1,248 (74.5%) will remain alive after 10 years of treatment when kidney transplantation technology is used. The highest costs will be in the first year ($25,864), and in subsequent years - about $5,769. With the use of hemodialysis technology, only 728 patients (43.5%) will be alive after 10 years, the cost of treating one patient per year is $11,351. The use of kidney transplantation adds 3191 years of quality life for 1675 patients compared with hemodialysis (1.9 years per patient).

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: Kidney transplantation is an economically feasible technology for Ukraine, as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is $4694, which is 1.04 times higher than Ukraine's GDP per capita. The results of the study allow us to recommend that decision-makers in countries with a low and medium level of economic development give priority in financing to renal transplantation.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of influenza illness and vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from 2012 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Historically, lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination has been identified as a barrier to vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations describing (1) costs of influenza illness; (2) costs of influenza vaccination programs; and (3) vaccination cost-effectiveness from low- and middle-income countries to assess if gaps persist that could hinder global implementation of influenza vaccination programs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus in January 2022 and October 2023 using a combination of the following key words: "influenza" AND "cost" OR "economic." The search included studies with publication years 2012 through 2022. Studies were eligible if they (1) presented original, peer-reviewed findings on cost of illness, cost of vaccination program, or cost-effectiveness of vaccination for seasonal influenza; and (2) included data for at least 1 low- or middle-income country. We abstracted general study characteristics and data specific to each of the 3 study types. Of 54 included studies, 26 presented data on cost-effectiveness, 24 on cost-of-illness, and 5 on program costs. Represented countries were classified as upper-middle income (UMIC; n = 12), lower-middle income (LMIC; n = 7), and low-income (LIC; n = 3). The most evaluated target groups were children (n = 26 studies), older adults (n = 17), and persons with chronic medical conditions (n = 12); fewer studies evaluated pregnant persons (n = 9), healthcare workers (n = 5), and persons in congregate living settings (n = 1). Costs-of-illness were generally higher in UMICs than in LMICs/LICs; however, the highest national economic burden, as a percent of gross domestic product and national health expenditure, was reported from an LIC. Among studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine introduction, most (88%) interpreted at least 1 scenario per target group as either cost-effective or cost-saving, based on thresholds designated in the study. Key limitations of this work included (1) heterogeneity across included studies; (2) restrictiveness of the inclusion criteria used; and (3) potential for missed influenza burden from use of sentinel surveillance systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The 54 studies identified in this review suggest an increased momentum to generate economic evidence about influenza illness and vaccination from low- and middle-income countries during 2012 to 2022. However, given that we observed substantial heterogeneity, continued evaluation of the economic burden of influenza illness and costs/cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination, particularly in LICs and among underrepresented target groups (e.g., healthcare workers and pregnant persons), is needed. Use of standardized methodology could facilitate pooling across settings and knowledge sharing to strengthen global influenza vaccination programs.

In-kind nutritional supplementation for household contacts of persons with tuberculosis would be cost-effective for reducing tuberculosis incidence and mortality in India: a modeling study

Background

Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis (TB) globally, but nutritional interventions are often considered cost prohibitive. The RATIONS study demonstrated that nutritional support provided to household contacts of persons with TB can reduce TB incidence. However, the long-term cost-effectiveness of this intervention is unclear.

Methods

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a RATIONS-style intervention (daily 750 kcal dietary supplementation and multi-micronutrient tablet). Using a Markov state transition model we simulated TB incidence, treatment, and TB-attributable mortality among household contacts receiving the RATIONS intervention, as compared to no nutritional support. We calculated health outcomes (TB cases, TB deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) over the lifetime of intervention recipients and assessed costs from government and societal perspectives. We tested the robustness of results to parameter changes via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Over two years, household contacts receiving the RATIONS intervention would experience 39% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 23-52) fewer TB cases and 59% (95% UI: 44-69) fewer TB deaths. The intervention was estimated to avert 13,775 (95% UI: 9036-20,199) TB DALYs over the lifetime of the study cohort comprising 100,000 household contacts and was cost-effective from both government (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $229 per DALY averted [95% UI: 133-387]) and societal perspectives ($184 per DALY averted [95% UI: 83-344]). The results were most sensitive to the cost of the nutritional supplement.

Interpretation

Prompt nutritional support for household contacts of persons with TB disease would be cost-effective in reducing TB incidence and mortality in India.

Summary

Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis in India. Using a Markov state-transition model, we found that food baskets for household contacts of persons with tuberculosis would be cost-effective in reducing tuberculosis incidence and mortality in India.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for TB worldwide. Recently, the RATIONS study demonstrated a roughly 40% reduction in incident TB among household contacts who received in-kind macronutrient and micronutrient supplementation. Added value of this study: Although the RATIONS study demonstrated a dramatic reduction in incident TB, it is unclear if nutritional interventions to prevent TB are cost-effective. Previously, only one cost-effectiveness analysis of nutritional interventions for household contacts has been published. Due to lack of published data, that study had to make assumptions regarding the impact of nutritional interventions on TB incidence and mortality. In this study, we conducted an economic evaluation of a RATIONS-style intervention to reduce incident TB and mortality in India using observed data. Implications of all the available evidence: In-kind nutritional supplementation for household contacts of individuals with TB disease would be cost-effective in reducing incident TB and TB mortality, particularly if TB programs leverage economies of scale to bring down the cost of the nutritional intervention.

Revision of Malawi's Health Benefits Package: A Critical Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

OBJECTIVES

Health benefits packages (HBPs), which define specific health services that can be offered for free or at a reduced cost to fit within public revenues, have been recommended for over 30 years to maximize population health in resource-limited settings. However, there remain gaps in defining and operationalizing HBPs. We propose a combination of design and prioritization methods along with practical strategies to improve the implementation of future iterations of the HBP in Malawi.

METHODS

For HBP development for Malawi's Third Health Sector Strategic Plan, we combined cost-effectiveness analysis with a quantitative, consultative multicriteria decision analysis. Throughout the process of development, we documented challenges and opportunities to improve HBP design and application.

RESULTS

The primary and secondary HBP included 115 interventions. However, the definition of an HBP is just one step toward focusing limited resources, with functional operationalization as the most critical component. Full implementation of previous HBPs has been limited by challenges in aid coordination with the misalignment of nonfungible vertical donor funding for the HBP without accounting for the complexity and interconnectedness of the health system. Opportunities for improved application include creation of a complementary minimum health service package to guide overall resource inputs through an integrative approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We believe that expanded participatory HBP methods that consider value, equity, and social considerations, along with a shift to providing integrated health service packages at all levels of care, will improve the efficiency of using scarce resources along the journey to universal health coverage.

Affordability of an NGO-government partnership for community-based disability rehabilitation

Background

Tunafasi is a community-based rehabilitation (CBR) programme for persons with disability, implemented by a local non-governmental organisation in Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo, in partnership with government. To assess affordability and support discussions with the government about continued financing and implementation, Tunafasi representatives commissioned a cost-effectiveness study of the programme's health component.

Objectives

This study aimed to estimate the programme's impacts, costs, cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted and affordability of the health component implemented from February 2019 to December 2021.

Method

Health-related improvements were assessed for a sample of 511 persons with disability and converted to DALYs averted. Total expenditure during the period February 2019 to December 2021 was estimated from audited financial statements. The cost per DALY averted was estimated by dividing total programme expenditure by the sum of DALYs averted and compared against newly generated, country-specific thresholds to assess affordability.

Results

The programme cost $55 729.00 to implement from February 2019 to December 2021 and averted 234 DALYs in 511 persons, at a cost per DALY averted of $224.00. This falls above the affordability threshold of $54.00 - $199.00.

Conclusion

While the cost per DALY averted is higher than what thresholds consider affordable for Democratic Republic of Congo, improved engagement from CBR facilitators and greater possibilities for treatment in the post-pandemic era should improve results.

Contribution

This new CBR implementation modality offers a possibly affordable solution to African governments struggling to operationalise disability commitments such as United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

Adding new childhood vaccines to China's National Immunization Program: evidence, benefits, and priorities

China's National Immunization Program has made remarkable achievements but does not include several important childhood vaccines that are readily available in the private market, such as pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine, Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib) vaccine, and varicella vaccine. We reviewed the literature to assess these four non-National Immunization Program vaccines in terms of their disease burdens, coverage, inequalities, and cost-effectiveness in China and aimed to recommend priorities for introducing them to the National Immunization Program. Based on our calculations using the available evidence, incorporating these vaccines into China's National Immunization Program in 2019 could have averted 11 761 deaths among children younger than 5 years, accounting for 10·29% of the total deaths in children younger than 5 years and reducing the mortality rate from 7·8 per 1000 to 7·0 per 1000. The review showed that 13-valent PCV (PCV13) had the lowest and most inequitable coverage but could prevent the highest number of deaths. In a budgetary analysis for the cohort of newborns in 2023, we estimated that the projected aggregate government costs were US$1954·92 million for PCV13, $1273·13 million for pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, $415·30 million for Hib vaccine, and $221·64 million for varicella vaccine. Our overall multicriteria decision analysis suggested the following priority order for introducing these four non-programme vaccines to the National Immunization Program to benefit the Chinese population: PCV13, rotavirus vaccine, Hib vaccine, and varicella vaccine.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hydroxyurea for Sickle Cell Anemia in a Low-Income African Setting: A Model-Based Evaluation of Two Dosing Regimens

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The disease burden of sickle cell anemia (SCA) in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries is substantial, with many children dying without an established diagnosis or proper treatment. The global burden of SCA is increasing each year, making therapeutic intervention a high priority. Hydroxyurea is the only disease-modifying therapy with proven feasibility and efficacy suitable for SSA; however, no one has quantified the health economic implications of its use. Therefore, from the perspective of the health care provider, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of hydroxyurea as a fixed-dose regimen or maximum tolerated dose (MTD) regimen, versus SCA care without hydroxyurea.

METHODS

We estimated the cost of providing outpatient treatment at a pediatric sickle cell clinic in Kampala, Uganda. These estimates were used in a discrete-event simulation model to project mean costs (2021 US$), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and consumption of blood products per patient (450 mL units), for patients between 9 months and 18 years of age. We calculated cost-effectiveness as the ratio of incremental costs over incremental DALYs averted, discounted at 3% annually. To test the robustness of our findings, and the impact of uncertainty, we conducted probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses, scenario analysis, and price threshold analyses.

RESULTS

Hydroxyurea treatment averted an expected 1.37 DALYs and saved US$ 191 per patient if administered at the MTD, compared with SCA care without hydroxyurea. In comparison, hydroxyurea at a fixed dose averted 0.80 DALYs per patient at an incremental cost of US$ 2. The MTD strategy saved 11.2 (95% CI 11.1-11.4) units of blood per patient, compared with 9.1 (95% CI 9.0-9.2) units of blood per patient at the fixed-dose alternative.

CONCLUSIONS

Hydroxyurea at MTD is likely to improve quality of life and reduce the consumption of blood products for children with SCA living in Uganda. Compared with a fixed dose regimen, treatment dosing at MTD is likely to be a cost-effective treatment for SCA, using realistic ranges of hydroxyurea costs that are relevant across SSA. Compared with no use of the drug, hydroxyurea could lead to substantial net savings per patient, while reducing the disease morbidity and mortality and increasing quality of life.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based household tuberculosis contact management for children in Cameroon and Uganda: a modelling analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends household contact management (HCM) including contact screening and tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) for eligible children. The CONTACT trial found increased TPT initiation and completion rates when community health workers were used for HCM in Cameroon and Uganda.

METHODS

We did a cost-utility analysis of the CONTACT trial using a health-system perspective to estimate the health impact, health-system costs, and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus facility-based HCM models of care. A decision-analytical modelling approach was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared with the standard of care using trial data on cascade of care, intervention effects, and resource use. Health outcomes were based on modelled progression to tuberculosis, mortality, and discounted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. Health-care resource use, outcomes, costs (2021 US$), and cost-effectiveness are presented.

FINDINGS

For every 1000 index patients diagnosed with tuberculosis, the intervention increased the number of TPT courses by 1110 (95% uncertainty interval 894 to 1227) in Cameroon and by 1078 (796 to 1220) in Uganda compared with the control model. The intervention prevented 15 (-3 to 49) tuberculosis deaths in Cameroon and 10 (-20 to 33) in Uganda. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $620 per DALY averted in Cameroon and $970 per DALY averted in Uganda.

INTERPRETATION

Community-based HCM approaches can substantially reduce child tuberculosis deaths and in our case would be considered cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $1000 per DALY averted. Their impact and cost-effectiveness are likely to be greatest where baseline HCM coverage is lowest.

FUNDING

Unitaid and UK Medical Research Council.

Report of the WHO technical consultation on the evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus prevention cost effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, April 7-8, 2022

Policymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs. Epidemiological parameters identified as both influential and uncertain were those associated with RSV hospitalization and death, specifically setting-specific hospitalization rates and RSV-attributable death rates. Influential economic parameters included product price, delivery costs, willingness-to-pay for health on the part of potential donors, and the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization. Some of the influential parameters identified at this meeting should be more precisely measured by further research. Other influential economic parameters that are highly uncertain may not be resolved, and it is appropriate to use sensitivity analyses to explore these within cost-effectiveness evaluations. This report highlights the presentations and major discussions of the meeting.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid vaccination in Lao PDR

BACKGROUND

Typhoid vaccination has been shown to be an effective intervention to prevent enteric fever and is under consideration for inclusion in the national immunization program in Lao PDR.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was performed using an age-structured static decision tree model to estimate the costs and health outcomes of introducing TCV. Vaccination strategies combined with five delivery approaches in different age groups compared to no vaccination were considered from the societal perspective, using the Gavi price of 1.5 USD per dose. The vaccination program was considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than a threshold of 1 GDP per capita for Lao PDR, equivalent to USD 2,535 in 2020.

RESULTS

In the model, we estimated 172.2 cases of enteric fever, with 1.3 deaths and a total treatment cost of USD 7,244, based on a birth cohort of 164,662 births without TCV vaccination that was followed over their lifetime. To implement a TCV vaccination program over the lifetime horizon, the estimated cost of the vaccine and administration costs would be between USD 470,934 and USD 919,186. Implementation of the TCV vaccination program would prevent between 14 and 106 cases and 0.1 to 0.8 deaths. None of the vaccination programs appeared to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of TCV in the national vaccination program in Lao PDR would only be cost-effective if the true typhoid incidence is 25-times higher than our current estimate.

Cost-effectiveness of a decentralized, community-based "one-stop-shop" hepatitis C testing and treatment program in Yangon, Myanmar

Background and Aim

The availability of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment and point-of-care diagnostic testing has made hepatitis C (HCV) elimination possible even in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, testing and treatment costs remain a barrier. We estimated the cost and cost-effectiveness of a decentralized community-based HCV testing and treatment program (CT2) in Myanmar.

Methods

Primary cost data included the costs of DAAs, investigations, medical supplies and other consumables, staff salaries, equipment, and overheads. A deterministic cohort-based Markov model was used to estimate the average cost of care, the overall quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of providing testing and DAA treatment compared with a modeled counterfactual scenario of no testing and no treatment.

Results

From 30 January to 30 September 2019, 633 patients were enrolled, of whom 535 were HCV RNA-positive, 489 were treatment eligible, and 488 were treated. Lifetime discounted costs and QALYs of the cohort in the counterfactual no testing and no treatment scenario were estimated to be USD61790 (57 898-66 898) and 6309 (5682-6363) respectively, compared with USD123 248 (122 432-124 101) and 6518 (5894-6671) with the CT2 model of care, giving an ICER of USD294 (192-340) per QALY gained. This "one-stop-shop" model of care has a 90% likelihood of being cost-effective if benchmarked against a willingness to pay of US$300, which is 20% of Myanmar's GDP per capita (2020).

Conclusions

The CT2 model of HCV care is cost-effective in Myanmar and should be expanded to meet the National Hepatitis Control Program's 2030 target, alongside increasing the affordability and accessibility of services.

Health and economic effects of introducing single-dose or two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is a major public health problem in India, where access to prevention programmes is low. The WHO-Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recently updated their recommendation for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to include a single-dose option in addition to the two-dose option, which could make HPV vaccination programmes easier to implement and more affordable.

METHODS

We combined projections from a type-specific HPV transmission model and a cancer progression model to assess the health and economic effects of HPV vaccination at national and state level in India. The models used national and state-specific Indian demographic, epidemiological and cost data, and single-dose vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer India vaccine trial with 10-year follow-up. We compared single-dose and two-dose HPV vaccination for a range of plausible scenarios regarding single-dose vaccine protection, coverage and catch-up. We used a healthcare sector payer perspective with a time horizon of 100 years.

RESULTS

Under the base-case scenario of lifelong protection of single-dose vaccination in 10-year-old girls with 90% coverage, the discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of nationwide vaccination relative to no vaccination was US$406 (₹INR30 000) per DALY (disability-adjusted life-years) averted. This lay below an opportunity-cost-based threshold of 30% Indian gross domestic product per capita in each Indian state (state-specific ICER range: US$67-US$593 per DALY averted). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus no vaccination vaccination was US$1404 (₹INR104 000). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus single-dose vaccination, assuming lower initial efficacy and waning of single-dose vaccination, was at least US$2282 (₹INR169 000) per DALY averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide introduction of single-dose HPV vaccination at age 10 in India is highly likely to be cost-effective whereas extending the number of doses from one to two would have a less favourable profile.

Economic evaluation of self-help group interventions for health in LMICs: a scoping review

This scoping review aims to identify and critically appraise published economic evaluations of self-help group (SHG) interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that seek to improve health and potentially also non-health outcomes. Through a systematic search of MEDLINE ALL (Ovid), EMBASE Ovid, PsychINFO, EconLit (Ovid) and Global Index Medicus, we identified studies published between 2014 and 2020 that were based in LMICs, included at least a health outcome, estimated intervention costs and reported the methods used. We critically analysed whether the methods employed can meaningfully inform decisions by ministries of health and other sectors, including donors, regarding whether to fund such interventions, and prioritized the aspects of evaluations that support decision-making and cross-sectoral decision-making especially. Nine studies met our inclusion criteria. Randomized controlled trials were the most commonly used vehicle to collect data and to establish a causal effect across studies. While all studies clearly stated one or more perspectives justifying the costs and effects that are reported, few papers clearly laid out the decision context or the decision maker(s) informed by the study. The latter is required to inform which costs, effects and opportunity costs are relevant to the decision and should be included in the analysis. Costs were typically reported from the provider or health-care sector perspective although other perspectives were also employed. Four papers reported outcomes in terms of a generic measure of health. Contrary to expectation, no studies reported outcomes beyond health. Our findings suggest limitations in the extent to which published studies are able to inform decision makers around the value of implementing SHG interventions in their particular context. Funders can make better informed decisions when evidence is presented using a cross-sectoral framework.

Field performance and cost-effectiveness of a point-of-care triage test for HIV virological failure in Southern Africa

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) monitoring using viral load (VL) testing is challenging in high-burden, limited-resources settings. Chemokine IP-10 (interferon gamma-induced protein 10) strongly correlates with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) VL. Its determination could serve to predict virological failure (VF) and to triage patients requiring VL testing. We assessed the field performance of a semi-quantitative IP-10 lateral flow assay (LFA) for VF screening in South Africa, and the cost-effectiveness of its implementation in Mozambique.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted between June and December 2021 in three primary health clinics in the Western Cape. Finger prick capillary blood was collected from adults on ART for ≥1 year for direct application onto the IP-10 LFA (index test) and compared with a plasma VL result ≤1 month prior (reference test). We estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), sensitivity and specificity, to evaluate IP-10 LFA prediction of VF (VL>1000 copies/ml). A decision tree model was used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of integrating IP-10 LFA combined with VL testing into the current Mozambican ART monitoring strategy. Averted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and HIV acquisitions, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated.

RESULTS

Among 209 participants (median age 38 years and 84% female), 18% had VF. Median IP-10 LFA values were higher among individuals with VF compared to those without (24.0 vs. 14.6; p<0.001). The IP-10 LFA predicted VF with an AUC = 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.85), 91.9% sensitivity (95% CI 78.1-98.3) and 35.1% specificity (95% CI 28.0-42.7). Integrating the IP-10 LFA in a setting with 20% VF prevalence and 61% VL testing coverage could save 13.0% of costs and avert 14.9% of DALYs and 55.7% new HIV acquisitions. Furthermore, its introduction was estimated to reduce the total number of routine VL tests required for ART monitoring by up to 68%.

CONCLUSIONS

The IP-10 LFA is an effective VF triage test for routine ART monitoring. Combining a highly sensitive, low-cost IP-10 LFA-based screening with targeted VL confirmatory testing could result in significant healthcare quality improvements and cost savings in settings with limited access to VL testing.

The potential health and economic impacts of new tuberculosis vaccines under varying delivery strategies in Delhi and Gujarat, India: a modelling study

Background

India has the largest tuberculosis burden globally, but this burden varies nationwide. All-age tuberculosis prevalence in 2021 ranged from 747/100,000 in Delhi to 137/100,000 in Gujarat. Previous modelling has demonstrated the benefits and costs of introducing novel tuberculosis vaccines in India overall. However, no studies have compared the potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in regions within India with differing tuberculosis disease and infection prevalence. We used mathematical modelling to investigate how the health and economic impact of two potential tuberculosis vaccines, M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination, could differ in Delhi and Gujarat under varying delivery strategies.

Methods

We applied a compartmental tuberculosis model separately for Delhi (higher disease and infection prevalence) and Gujarat (lower disease and infection prevalence), and projected epidemiological trends to 2050 assuming no new vaccine introduction. We simulated M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios varying target ages and vaccine characteristics. We estimated cumulative cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted between 2025-2050 compared to the no-new-vaccine scenario and compared incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to three cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Results

M72/AS01E averted a higher proportion of tuberculosis cases than BCG-revaccination in both regions (Delhi: 16.0% vs 8.3%, Gujarat: 8.5% vs 5.1%) and had higher vaccination costs (Delhi: USD$118 million vs USD$27 million, Gujarat: US$366 million vs US$97 million). M72/AS01E in Delhi could be cost-effective, or even cost-saving, for all modelled vaccine characteristics. M72/AS01E could be cost-effective in Gujarat, unless efficacy was assumed only for those with current infection at vaccination. BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective, or cost-saving, in both regions for all modelled vaccine scenarios.

Discussion

M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in Delhi and Gujarat. Differences in impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness between vaccines and regions, were determined partly by differences in disease and infection prevalence, and demography. Age-specific regional estimates of infection prevalence could help to inform delivery strategies for vaccines that may only be effective in people with a particular infection status. Evidence on the mechanism of effect of M72/AS01E and its effectiveness in uninfected individuals, which were important drivers of impact and cost-effectiveness, particularly in Gujarat, are also key to improve estimates of population-level impact.

The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

BACKGROUND

The global increase in mean body mass index has resulted in a substantial increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including in many low- and middle-income countries such as Kenya. This paper assesses four interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya to determine their potential health and economic impact and cost effectiveness.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature to identify evidence of effect, determine the intervention costs, disease costs and total healthcare costs. We used a proportional multistate life table model to quantify the potential impacts on health conditions and healthcare costs, modelling the 2019 Kenya population over their remaining lifetime. Considering a health system perspective, two interventions were assessed for cost-effectiveness. In addition, we used the Human Capital Approach to estimate productivity gains.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime of the 2019 population, impacts were estimated at 203,266 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163,752 - 249,621) for a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, 151,718 HALYs (95% UI 55,257 - 250,412) for mandatory kilojoule menu labelling, 3.7 million HALYs (95% UI 2,661,365-4,789,915) for a change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase patterns and 13.1 million HALYs (95% UI 11,404,317 - 15,152,341) for a change in national consumption back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake. This translates to 4, 3, 73 and 261 HALYs per 1,000 persons. Lifetime healthcare cost savings were approximately United States Dollar (USD) 0.14 billion (USD 3 per capita), USD 0.08 billion (USD 2 per capita), USD 1.9 billion (USD 38 per capita) and USD 6.2 billion (USD 124 per capita), respectively. Lifetime productivity gains were approximately USD 1.8 billion, USD 1.2 billion, USD 28 billion and USD 92 billion. Both the 20% tax on sugar sweetened beverages and the mandatory kilojoule menu labelling were assessed for cost effectiveness and found dominant (health promoting and cost-saving).

CONCLUSION

All interventions evaluated yielded substantive health gains and economic benefits and should be considered for implementation in Kenya.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease risk screening in a low-resource setting: cost-effectiveness of program modifications in Sri Lanka modelled with nationally representative survey data

BACKGROUND

While screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help low-resource health systems deliver low-cost, effective prevention, evidence is needed to adapt international screening guidelines for maximal impact in local settings. We aimed to establish how the cost-effectiveness of CVD risk screening in Sri Lanka varies with who is screened, how risk is assessed, and what thresholds are used for prescription of medicines.

METHODS

We used data for people aged 35 years and over from a 2018/19 nationally representative survey in Sri Lanka. We modelled the costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for 128 screening program scenarios distinguished by a) age group screened, b) risk tool used, c) definition of high CVD risk, d) blood pressure threshold for treatment of high-risks, and e) prescription of statins to all diabetics. We used the current program as the base case. We used a Markov model of a one-year screening program with a lifetime horizon and a public health system perspective.

RESULTS

Scenarios that included the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool dominated most others. Switching to this tool and raising the age threshold for screening from 35 to 40 years gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $113/QALY. Lowering the CVD high-risk threshold from 20 to 10% and prescribing antihypertensives at a lower threshold to diabetics and people at high risk of CVD gave an ICER of $1,159/QALY. The findings were sensitive to allowing for disutility of daily medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In Sri Lanka, CVD risk screening scenarios that used the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool, screened people above the age of 40, and lowered risk and blood pressure thresholds would likely be cost-effective, generating an additional QALY at less than half a GDP per capita.

The long-term impact and value of curative therapy for HIV: a modelling analysis

INTRODUCTION

Curative therapies (CTx) to achieve durable remission of HIV disease without the need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are currently being explored. Our objective was to model the long-term health and cost outcomes of HIV in various countries, the impact of future CTx on those outcomes and the country-specific value-based prices (VBPs) of CTx.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the future health economic impacts of a hypothetical CTx for HIV in countries with pre-existing access to ART (CTx+ART), compared to ART alone. We modelled populations in seven low-and-middle-income countries and five high-income countries, accounting for localized ART and other HIV-related costs, and calibrating variables for HIV epidemiology and ART uptake to reproduce historical HIV outcomes before projecting future outcomes to year 2100. Health was quantified using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Base case, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios were modelled for CTx+ART and ART alone. Based on long-term outcomes and each country's estimated health opportunity cost, we calculated the country-specific VBP of CTx.

RESULTS

The introduction of a hypothetical CTx lowered HIV prevalence and prevented future infections over time, which increased life-years, reduced the number of individuals on ART, reduced AIDS-related deaths, and ultimately led to fewer DALYs versus ART-alone. Our base case estimates for the VBP of CTx ranged from $5400 (Kenya) up to $812,300 (United States). Within each country, the VBP was driven to be greater primarily by lower ART coverage, lower HIV incidence and prevalence, and higher CTx cure probability. The VBP estimates were found to be greater in countries where HIV prevalence was higher, ART coverage was lower and the health opportunity cost was greater.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results quantify the VBP for future curative CTx that may apply in different countries and under different circumstances. With greater CTx cure probability, durability and scale up, CTx commands a higher VBP, while improvements in ART coverage may mitigate its value. Our framework can be utilized for estimating this cost given a wide range of scenarios related to the attributes of a given CTx as well as various parameters of the HIV epidemic within a given country.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve diagnosis and preventive therapy for paediatric tuberculosis in 9 sub-Saharan African countries: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Over 1 million children aged 0 to 14 years were estimated to develop tuberculosis in 2021, resulting in over 200,000 deaths. Practical interventions are urgently needed to improve diagnosis and antituberculosis treatment (ATT) initiation in children aged 0 to 14 years and to increase coverage of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) in children at high risk of developing tuberculosis disease. The multicountry CaP-TB intervention scaled up facility-based intensified case finding and strengthened household contact management and TPT provision at HIV clinics. To add to the limited health-economic evidence on interventions to improve ATT and TPT in children, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the CaP-TB intervention.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analysed clinic-level pre/post data to quantify the impact of the CaP-TB intervention on ATT and TPT initiation across 9 sub-Saharan African countries. Data on tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation counts with corresponding follow-up time were available for 146 sites across the 9 countries prior to and post project implementation, stratified by 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 year age-groups. Preintervention data were retrospectively collected from facility registers for a 12-month period, and intervention data were prospectively collected from December 2018 to June 2021 using project-specific forms. Bayesian generalised linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate country-level rate ratios for tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation. We analysed project expenditure and cascade data to determine unit costs of intervention components and used mathematical modelling to project health impact, health system costs, and cost-effectiveness. Overall, ATT and TPT initiation increased, with country-level incidence rate ratios varying between 0.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.7 to 1.0) and 2.9 (95% UI, 2.3 to 3.6) for ATT and between 1.6 (95% UI, 1.5 to 1.8) and 9.8 (95% UI, 8.1 to 11.8) for TPT. We projected that for every 100 children starting either ATT or TPT at baseline, the intervention package translated to between 1 (95% UI, -1 to 3) and 38 (95% UI, 24 to 58) deaths averted, with a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$634 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. ICERs ranged between US$135/DALY averted in Democratic of the Congo and US$6,804/DALY averted in Cameroon. The main limitation of our study is that the impact is based on pre/post comparisons, which could be confounded.

CONCLUSIONS

In most countries, the CaP-TB intervention package improved tuberculosis treatment and prevention services for children aged under 15 years, but large variation in estimated impact and ICERs highlights the importance of local context.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This evaluation is part of the TIPPI study, registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03948698).

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Smart Triage, a data-driven pediatric sepsis triage platform in Eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Sepsis, characterized by organ dysfunction due to presumed or proven infection, has a case-fatality over 20% in severe cases in low-and-middle income countries. Early diagnosis and treatment have proven benefits, prompting our implementation of Smart Triage at Jinja Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda, a program that expedites treatment through a data-driven triage platform. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of Smart Triage to explore its impact on patients and inform multicenter scale up.

METHODS

The parent clinical trial for Smart Triage was pre-post in design, using the proportion of children receiving sepsis treatment within one hour as the primary outcome, a measure linked to mortality benefit in existing literature. We used a decision-analytic model with Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the cost per year-of-life-lost (YLL) averted of Smart Triage from societal, government, and patient perspectives. Healthcare utilization and lost work for seven days post-discharge were translated into costs and productivity losses via secondary linkage data.

RESULTS

In 2021 United States dollars, Smart Triage requires an annuitized program cost of only $0.05 per child, but results in $15.32 saved per YLL averted. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of only $3 per YLL averted, well below published cost-effectiveness threshold estimates for Uganda, Smart Triage approaches 100% probability of cost-effectiveness over the baseline manual triage system. This cost-effectiveness was observed from societal, government, and patient perspectives. The cost-effectiveness observed was driven by a reduction in admission that, while explainable by an improved triage mechanism, may also be partially attributable to changes in healthcare utilization influenced by the coronavirus pandemic. However, Smart Triage remains cost-effective in sensitivity analyses introducing a penalty factor of up to 50% in the reduction in admission.

CONCLUSION

Smart Triage's ability to both save costs and avert YLLs indicates that patients benefit both economically and clinically, while its high probability of cost-effectiveness strongly supports multicenter scale up. Areas for further research include the incorporation of years lived with disability when sepsis disability weights in low-resource settings become available and analyzing budget impact during multicenter scale up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT04304235 (registered on 11/03/2020, clinicaltrials.gov).

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination

BACKGROUND

India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies.

METHODS

We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.

RESULTS

M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease.

CONCLUSIONS

M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of short-course tuberculosis preventive treatment for household contacts and people with HIV in 29 high-incidence countries: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines and implementation of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) vary by age and HIV status. Specifically, TPT is strongly recommended for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and household contacts younger than 5 years but only conditionally recommended for older contacts. Cost remains a major barrier to implementation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TPT for household contacts and PLWHA.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition model to simulate short-course TPT for household contacts and PLWHA in 29 high-incidence countries based on data from previous studies and public databases. Our primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expressed as incremental discounted costs (2020 US$, including contact investigation costs) per incremental discounted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, compared with a scenario without any TPT or contact investigation. We propagated uncertainty in all model parameters using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and also evaluated the sensitivity of results to the screening algorithm used to rule out active disease, the choice of TPT regimen, the modelling time horizon, assumptions about TPT coverage, antiretroviral therapy discontinuation, and secondary transmission.

FINDINGS

Between 2023 and 2035, scaling up TPT prevented 0·9 (95% uncertainty interval 0·4-1·6) people from developing tuberculosis and 0·13 (0·05-0·27) tuberculosis deaths per 100 PLWHA, at an incremental cost of $15 (9-21) per PLWHA. For household contacts, TPT (with contact investigation) averted 1·1 (0·5-2·0) cases and 0·7 (0·4-1·0) deaths per 100 contacts, at a cost of $21 (17-25) per contact. Cost-effectiveness was most favourable for household contacts younger than 5 years ($22 per DALY averted) and contacts aged 5-14 years ($104 per DALY averted) but also fell within conservative cost-effectiveness thresholds in many countries for PLWHA ($722 per DALY averted) and adult contacts ($309 per DALY averted). Costs per DALY averted tended to be lower when compared with a scenario with contact investigation but no TPT. The cost-effectiveness of TPT was not substantially altered in sensitivity analyses, except that TPT was more favourable in analysis that considered a longer time horizon or included secondary transmission benefits.

INTERPRETATION

In many high-incidence countries, short-course TPT is likely to be cost-effective for PLWHA and household contacts of all ages, regardless of whether contact investigation is already in place. Failing to implement tuberculosis contact investigation and TPT will incur a large burden of avertable illness and mortality in the next decade.

FUNDING

Unitaid.

Distributional impact of infectious disease interventions in the Ethiopian Essential Health Service Package: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Reducing inequalities in health and financial risk are key goals on the path toward universal health coverage, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. The design of the health benefit package creates an opportunity to select interventions through established criteria. The aim of this study is to examine the health equity and financial protection impact of selected interventions, along with their costs, at the national level in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis.

POPULATION

The eligible population for all selected interventions is assumed to be 10 million.

DATA SOURCES

Data on disease prevalence and population size were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease database, and average health benefits and program costs are sourced from the Ethiopian Essential Health Service Package (EHSP) database, national surveys and other publicly available sources.

INTERVENTION

A total of 30 interventions were selected from the latest EHSP revision and analysed over a 1-year period.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Health benefits, social welfare indices and financial protection metrics across income quintiles were reported.

RESULTS

We found 23 interventions that improve population health and reduce health inequality and four interventions reduce both population health and health inequality. Additionally, three interventions improve population health while increasing health inequality. Overall, the EHSP interventions provide a 0.021 improvement in health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) per person, with a positive distributional equity impact: 0.029 (26.9%) HALE gained in the poorest and 0.015 (14.0%) in the richest quintile. Similarly, a total of 1 79 475 cases of catastrophic health expenditure were averted, including 82 100 (46.0%) cases in the poorest and 17 900 (10.0%) in the richest quintile.

CONCLUSION

Increasing access to the EHSP improves health equity and financial protection. Improved access to selected EHSP interventions also has the potential to provide greater benefits to the poorest and thereby improve social welfare.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: Modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination

Background India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed Phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to no-new-vaccine introduction, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. Results M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. Conclusions M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given unknowns surrounding mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B virus prophylaxis in pregnancy: a dynamic simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

In 2020, WHO recommended the addition of peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP) to hepatitis B birth dose vaccination (HepB-BD) and hepatitis B infant vaccination (HepB3) to reduce mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in pregnant women who have a marker of high infectivity (ie, HBV DNA ≥200 000 international units per mL or HBeAg-positive). We aimed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of this recommendation and of a theoretical simplified strategy whereby PAP is given to all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive without risk stratification.

METHODS

This modelling study used a dynamic simulation model of the HBV epidemic in 110 countries in all WHO regions, structured by age, sex, and country. We assessed three strategies of scaling up PAP for pregnant women: PAP for those with high viral load (PAP-VL); PAP for those who are HBeAg-positive (PAP-HBeAg); and PAP for all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive (PAP-universal), in comparison with neonatal vaccination alone (HepB-BD). We investigated how different diagnostic and antiviral drug costs affected the cost-effectiveness of the strategies evaluated. Using a health-care provider perspective, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted in each country's population and compared these with country-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds. We also calculated new neonatal infections averted for each of the strategies.

FINDINGS

Adding PAP-VL to HepB-BD could avert around 1·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·0 million-1·2 million) new neonatal infections by 2030 and around 3·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·0 million-3·4 million) new neonatal infections and approximately 8·8 million (7·8 million-9·7 million) DALYs by 2100 across all the countries modelled. This strategy would probably be cost-effective up to 2100 in 28 (26%) of 106 countries analysed (which included some of the countries that have the greatest HBV burden) if costs are as currently expected to be, and in 74 (70%) countries if diagnostic and monitoring costs were lowered (by about 60-75%). The relative cost-effectiveness of PAP-VL and PAP-HBeAg was finely balanced and depended on the respective diagnostic and monitoring costs. The PAP-universal strategy could be more cost-effective than either of these strategies in most countries, but the use of antiviral treatment could be five times as high than with PAP-VL.

INTERPRETATION

PAP can provide substantial health benefits, and, although the current approach might already be cost-effective in some high-burden settings, decreased diagnostic costs would probably be needed for PAP to be cost-effective in most countries. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given about how such a strategy is implemented, and securing reduced costs for diagnostics should be a priority. The theoretical strategy of offering PAP to all women who are HBsAg-positive (eg, if diagnostic tests to identify mothers at risk of transmission are not available) could be a cost-effective alternative, depending on prevailing costs of diagnostics and antiviral therapy.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.